Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

Well I am an employee of one of those companies, and I wouldn’t be concerned. But I am not in the mobile division.

My other point was you have BT/EE, Vodafone, Three and O2

They are the 4no. MNO’s in the UK. When Three want to buy O2, that was blocked because that would have reduced the number of MNO’s to three.

Virgin, along with Tesco and a load of other MVNO’s are just essentially wholesale customers of whatever MNO they are contracted to.

So if Virgin move their business to O2 instead of Vodafone from EE, so what?

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

Per the Statista market share chart earlier, the market share of a combined O2 UK and VM would exceed 29% which is usually an issue in the UK.

The acquisition of O2 by Three was blocked by the European Commission who are unlikely to get involved now, per the FT article Den linked to.

---------- Post added at 22:44 ---------- Previous post was at 22:43 ----------

Interesting, thanks for posting.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...gin-media.html

O2 have officially admitted that talks are happening.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

And the report from "The Beeb" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52527804

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

I can unofficially also confirm, as I am being asked questions, the same questions that are always asked whenever we are about to either be bought or merged.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

The Telegraph reported over the weekend that they reckon this is another Malone tax avoidance scheme. He's the master of it...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ger-meets-eye/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-media-merger/

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

Sky News have published an analysis. It also suggests that part of the MVNO agreement with Vodafone includes VF being able to access Virgin's network to provide broadband service. Is that back haul or the much-rumoured wholesale access Liberty Global are looking at?

https://news.sky.com/story/why-o2-an...ction-11983086

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

I'm wondering if O2's stake in Tesco Mobile might be sold to Vodafone in the event of the VM-O2 merger happening. This could have two benefits:
a) Placates the competition authorities whilst allowing O2-VM to retain the O2, Virgin Mobile and Giff-Gaff businesses.
b) Compensates Vodafone if the MVNO with Virgin Mobile no longer takes place.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

OK, we now have some answers.
1) VM's mobile customers will move to the O2 network
2) VM Ireland is not part of the deal.

Details announced today at https://2zn23x1nwzzj494slw48aylw-wpe...Operations.pdf

Extracts from press release:
BBC news item now at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52570593

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

I don't think Vodafone will spoil the party and attempt to merge with VM itself for a few reasons. Firstly, they've been dancing around each other for years and nothing happened and secondly, Vodafone's boss made it clear that he didn't want to be part of Malone's tax "planning" scheme and get loaded up with debt. So, I think this VM/O2 merger will go ahead

But, that does leave Vodafone out in the cold now with two very powerful multiplatform competitors, so I would not be surprised if Vodafone bought TalkTalk with its 4 million plus broadband customers and possibly CityFibre too. Vodafone and CiryFibre have been working together on various FTTP projects around the country, so it could be a good combination. Last, but not least there is 3, which is very much in a distant fourth place here and I expect something to happen to them too at some point.

And, as you say, where does this leave Comcast? A cable co without a cable network or mobile outfit. I think more mergers are likely now.

I don't think we'll see any moves by Comcast yet, as it's busy dealing the collapse of its film/tv business', but in the future, I expect them to make some sort of move.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

Some interesting points there, Horizon. I think one piece of good news for O2-VM's competitors is that its shareholders want to continue milking it as a cash cow and will continue to load it with debt and take out dividends. Thus, it's not in danger of being a big threat to Sky or BT.

Three and TalkTalk both focus on the value end of the market so would make more of a a logical combination from a customer perspective. However, as you say, if Vodafone did not acquire TalkTalk its broadband options are limited to acquiring the far smaller challenger businesses like Community Fibre and City Fibre.

On reflection, Comcast despite its cable roots can probably thrive in the medium term without owning a cable network in Europe. It is currently quite easy for it to resell other providers' broadband capacity and it is strong on content. Three might be a good fit on the mobile front and mobile broadband is improving with 5G.

The deal also hoists a for sale sign over VM Ireland. In the Republic of Ireland the broadband market shares are: Eir 31%, Virgin Media 26%, Vodafone 19%, and Sky 13%. Per https://www.comreg.ie/publication/qu...report-q3-2019
Without Telefonica in that marketplace, there's no obvious trade buyer. Maybe BT at a push.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

Now that there can be no European rules blocking mergers. Vodafone and 3 might tie up, but whether our own regualtors want just three mobile phone cos, is another matter entirely.

I think you're probably right on these points.

Sky has 10m+ satellite customers, which, even if it had a cable network, it would take some time and effort to transition all those customers over to it and besides, with Now TV and Peacock being able to be streamed over any broadband line, there is a good argument to be had for not needing a network anyway. Netflix and Disney seem to do okay.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

I think this is the most likely scenario. CityFibre recently bought the Talk talk FTTP subsidiary Fibre Nation, and although City Fibre is building apace it has avery small Access Network footprint, so Vodafone would need Talk Talk as well to give them a decent fixed line consumer base.

---------- Post added at 10:52 ---------- Previous post was at 10:50 ----------

There's nothing stopping LG and Vodafone doing a JV with VMIE and Vodafone in Ireland as they have with Ziggo in the NL.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

Whilst I wouldn't necessarily rule that out, it would give a combined broadband share on paper of 45% which could trigger competition concerns.

Re: Liberty Global in talks to merge Virgin Media with O2
 

I'm normally all for competition in the marketplace but with the physical limitations of mobile spectrum, there is definitely a case for keeping that competition to a fixed limit. More than 2 for sure, but probably less than 5. 3 or 4 is trickier to determine. Right now we don't seem to have serious capacity issues thanks to the 5G rollout, but in future that might change.

Three have loaded up big on the 5G spectrum, I suspect they've put the big bet on Fixed wireless internet for their future.

If that pays off, I doubt they care much for Vodafone, but if it doesn't then I suspect Three will be gobbled up by someone eventually. I'd say TalkTalk is a good shout but I'm not sure how much life TalkTalk has left in it. Three and Sky/Comcast, maybe?