Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

On the upside now is a great time to bomb the crap out of Moscow, seeing as the war machine is otherwise occupied;)

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Most of the secessionists being undercover Russian troops, no doubt.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Well, about 10% of the "war machine"…

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Makes no sense to offer such a concession early on, though.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

early on? the Rushkies are knocking on the door shouting little pig little pig let me come in. No point offering concessions once the tanks are crossing the border

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

If you're going to concede on NATO membership, then it makes sense to do it now as oppose to early on.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I understand your reply now as it could have been to any part of my post and I misunderstood

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Apologies for any confusion.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Were they ever seriously going to join NATO ?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

They changed their Constitution in 2019 to include joining NATO

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-pol...stitution.html

Having been previously part of the Soviet Empire, they’d rather that didn’t happen again…

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I don't think realistically they would have been admitted into NATO anytime soon though precisely because of his tension. The point is that the West wants to respect the principle that they could and more importantly have the right to choose to do so as a sovereign nation.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

As a "goal"...
Such goals can take years, even decades.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Yup - the (ex-)Sovs don’t even want that…

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin obviously doesnt, who knows about who will follow on.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

This is a good article on why Putin and Russia are reacting as they are to Ukraine potentially joining NATO. The geography of Western Russia is very much in favour of the invader rather than the defender. To compensate, buffer zones have always been the way forward. Arguably, the recent big invasions of Russia (France and Germany) have failed because of stretching the supply chain of the invader. When winter followed by the spring thaw comes, it get very difficult to move supplies long distance.

In that respect, you can partially understand why Putin is getting a bit twitchy about having a potential adversary to the south who also owns one of Russias only warm water ports.

It will be interesting how we get out of this. The Russian psyche likes a strong leader so for Putin to back down now would be career limiting to say the least. He therefore needs to 'win' in some way to not appear weak to both his supporters and rivals in Russia. In the old Soviet days, there could be concessions from the West given without the public in the West knowing. On the face of it, the Soviet Union backed down in the Cuban Missile Crisis but it did lead to the removal of US missiles in Turkey and Italy which directly threatened the Soviet Union. This was Kruschevs 'win' or, at worst 'draw' over the whole affair

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Aye aye!

Six Typhoons bimbling about Lincolnshire/Yorkshire at the moment…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1644952932

Two just above Boston, and the other four near/above and to the right of York.

https://www.flightradar24.com/53.25,-0.89/8

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Don't think they will offer much help hahaha

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Thinking more they may be out for Bears or Blackjacks…

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Looking like Ukrainia won't be allowed to join Nato as, if they did and Russia invaded them, other countries (including us) would be obliged to come to their defence.

For some reason we don't want to do that, either because, even with America, we are not confident in winning any war with Russia or Ukrania is regarded as being worth sacrificing in order to avoid any military conflict ie loss of life etc. I'm not sure which.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

A war between the USA and Russia is a war between two nuclear powers. Such things are avoided carefully. This is why Biden wouldn’t even send an evacuation plane to Kiev in the event of an invasion; if it or its crew were caught even in the crossfire things could escalate badly.

Ironically Ukraine’s membership of NATO is I think more likely now than ever. The Russians arguably already made it easier by occupying Crimea where they have long had a major naval base that, prior to 2014, would have been subject to some very awkward negotiations had Ukraine joined the western alliance. They have also created the very clear impression that Ukraine is at risk of invasion making a mutual defence pact more desirable.

Once Ukraine is in NATO, the military door really is slammed shut on Putin. Western troops move in and risking their lives risks direct confrontation. Again, this is avoided carefully. It’s why the Cold War stayed cold. If Ukraine joins, then Putin is left trying to interfere with the politics of the country so as to bring about a Russian friendly administration that might take it out of NATO again.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

There wouldn't be many NATO members left if that applied

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...orial_disputes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Yet the United States are in :D

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

For prospective members only… ;)

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Military aircraft don't show up on this app.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

They do, except when they don’t want to.

(Edit). Here’s one passing through:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1645026372

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

The six delta-wing symbols were Typhoons, and when you clicked on them you got their flight paths, call signs, etc.

Here’s a RAF Apache doing circuits…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...2&d=1645029573

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I have it on my phone and like to check what’s flying over when I’m out walking. A few times I’ve seen private jets at fairly low level fly over without an active transponder and often wondered what shady character is on board that!

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Russia moving troops into ‘attack areas’ near Ukraine, minister warns

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0...89b205a723ea76

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

No transponders generally mean military

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

They have transponders, but with the ability to switch them off… ;)

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

It didn’t!

Any other predictions from anyone?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

You ain't wrong mate, the puppet known as Biden isn't playing a blinder.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Well he certainly got what he wanted for the UK, a divided weakened nation, with a muppet leader. So yes, respect to him there.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Are you just out for the weekend Mr. K? ;)

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

What would you do differently to Biden and Johnson?

If we don't want to go to war with Russia, which we don't, I think we've done as much as we can. We want to extract maximum cost to Russia if they do invade. Both Biden and Johnson would support cutting Russia off from the SWIFT baning messaging network.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Some say Biden's got Putin rattled.

Antony Blinken gave a detailed breakdown of the US's intelligence to the United Nations. These included the misleading troop withdrawals, false pretexts for war and the means of potential attacks - tanks, troops, missiles and cyber attacks. This level of detail was acknowledged by Blinken as necessary in order to overcome the legacy of the Bush administration's invasion of Iraq.

By setting out how an invasion might occur this, it makes it harder for Russia to claim an invasion is legitimate if they follow the playbook Blinken describes, which is a small deterrent in itself.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

We can't do anything. They've already done the hard work. Divided were weakened , together we're strengthened. The 'war' has already been won in cyberspace. Whether its interference in US elections or UK referendums, Russia has ensured we're a weakened irrelevance. 10 years ago we could have stopped them.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

The US intelligence mob . . . are these the same people that mistook a family car for a mad bomber in Afghanistan a few months ago and blew it to kingdom come?

Do me a favour :rolleyes:

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Yes, because getting a single point of Intelligence wrong about a single vehicle over a couple of hours is exactly the same as getting wrong the movement of hundreds of thousands of troops, hundreds of aircraft and thousand of vehicles/tanks/artillery, Forward Replenishment Bases, temporary bridges over rivers leading to the border, and the setting up of Forward Operating Bases and Field Hospitals over a period of weeks…

Strangely enough, in war, mistakes are made under pressure - it’s not good, but it happens.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Please explain how NATO has been divided and weakened.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Also please explain exactly how we would “stop them” now, if things were otherwise unchanged from 10 years ago.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I think one Russia gets its winter Olympians home, it will start.

---------- Post added at 12:53 ---------- Previous post was at 12:40 ----------

"Everything that we see indicates that invasion is very, very, highly likely and very, very imminent."


https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-c...netsk-12546847


Brown trousers on standby.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Can someone explain to me what this will do to affect my life?
All contributions greatly recieved.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Why? it is not going to escalate into WWIII the only way it could affect us in reality is in our pocket is with even higher gas prices

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

You have to remember Hom3r is 'between jobs' and may run the risk of being called up as an air raid warden . . . he's probably now practicing his authoritative voice . . . "Oy, put that light out" :D

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I do not think Putin is entirely rational which makes him unpredictable. Apparently most of his personal wealth is being "looked after" by various oligarchs. If you go after these high net worth individuals you have have more leverage.

I heard that the Russian economy is quite resilient to external pressures and if they still are selling gas with rising prices due to the situation, they have contingency.

I am not convinced that this Government, given that amount of Russian donor leverage that exists, will do the right thing. Also, Putin will see a weakened British PM, ridiculed at home, and conclude that his ability to command on the international stage as illusory.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Please tell me what is 'the right thing'?

. . . in your opinion of course ;)

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Not sure if this 100% accurate but there are reports of Putin set to announce that Russia recognizes the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk republics, two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine who will then "officially request Russian military assistance".

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin is reportedly going to sign a decree, recognising the 2 rebel areas in the east of Ukraine as independent states.

And then Putin gets them to join The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO; Russian: Организация Договора о коллективной безопасности, romanized: Organizatsiya Dogovora o kollektivnoy bezopasnosti; Russian: ОДКБ, romanized: ODKB.

And along the same lines of NATO, an attack on any member state is considered an attack on the whole alliance. So that would just need one false flag operation, saying that Ukraine attacked either of the new states, and the entire CSTO would attack Ukraine.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Hmm, so the breakaway states can join the CSTO but Ukraine can't join NATO. A bit unfair.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

False flag? Are you saying that Ukrainian forces have never, ever attacked those areas?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

What's the weather like in St Petersburg, comrade?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Those areas being part of Ukraine.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

There has been cross "border" fighting going on for 8 years between Ukraine's armed forces and Russian-backed and Russian-armed "rebels".

Minsk 2 was supposed to sort that out, but both sides read the words of the accord differently.

Russia wants the Sea of Azov surrounded by Russia, or Russian-backed allies. It is currently a no-fly zone declared by Russia.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin, is just being very clever.

But in regards to whole Ukraine issue, I think the USA in particular, need to remember how they reacted to Cuba missile situation.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Cross border? The UK TV news from some time ago had pictures of the damage. 14,000 killed didn't come from nowhere
If they declare some sort of independence, will Ukraine leave them alone or will they try to assert their authority?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Is your cryptic suggestion to recommend that the US avoids making lots of concessions like those it made to diffuse the Cuban missile crisis?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Russian troops have entered Ukraine on a 'peacekeeping' mission

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Well I was referring to how the US reacted to an opposing military power stationing itself on your doorstep. Which is what NATO is doing if they accept Ukraine and I can full appreciate Russia’s concern.

Also Ukraine’s history with Russia is not like other communist countries Russia added to the CCCP post war. Many Russians considered Ukraine part of Russia, and many Ukrainians consider themselves Russian. It’s not like a hostile invasion, if it were to happen, a decent % of the populace may welcome it.

In regards to US concessions regarding Cuba, apart from removing their nuclear weapons from Turkey, and not invading Cuba, I’m not aware of any others made by the US

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

BREAKING: NATO says a Russian decree recognising Ukrainian separatists areas as Independent, signed by Vladimir Putin tonight says is a Russian pretext of invasion. Meanwhile, U.S President Joe Biden orders fresh sanctions banning any U.S trade in the separatist areas following the latest developments.

Also: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Russia is breaking international law.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-c...loser-12548265

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin's rant was unhinged. At least he was honest that it's because he doesn't think Ukraine should be its own country (and worryingly also cast doubt on other Eastern European states) so the tankies can stop blaming America for it.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, to announce a fresh round of sanctions on Russia in response to their attack on Ukraine sovereignty.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

The US also withdrew its nuclear weapons from Italy as part of the Cuban deal.

Ukraine is not proposing to join NATO so it's not a comparable situation.

It would be a hostile invasion. There's a million people in England who consider themselves French but that doesn't legitimise an invasion of England by France nor make it non-hostile.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

They haven’t ruled it out either.

France has never been part of the U.K. , ever, in its history ( you could argue the opposite after the Norman conquest) the same cannot be said of Ukraine which has been entwined with Russia throughout its history.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

From DefconWarningSystem summed up succinctly:

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

That Ukraine used to be entwined with Russia doesn't mean anything now. They're a sovereign country.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

BREAKING: The European Union follows the U.S and UK, in adding sanctions on Russia following the latest developments.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

A sovereign country is a sovereign country. Many countries have been parts of other countries in the past.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I don’t doubt that. I’m not justifying it. I’m just suggesting that some Ukrainians ( perhaps some in the two provinces requesting independence from Ukraine) won’t see it as such.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

NATO/the USA aren’t proposing to site nuclear missiles in Ukraine, which is what the Soviets were going to do in Cuba in the 60s.

---------- Post added at 22:56 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

It’s an invasion - nothing more, nothing less.

The Russian troops aren’t "peacekeepers", they’re invaders.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

That’s irrelevant as the location of ICBMs are no longer restricted by geography. Nuclear subs also nullify that point.

The issue is having your enemy ( or perceived enemy) at your front door. Which is where the two situations align.

---------- Post added at 23:12 ---------- Previous post was at 23:05 ----------

Depends on who is being invaded.

If you welcome your invaders with open arms are you being invaded? I don’t doubt most of Ukraine won’t want it but if the border tows are happy?

If imperialistic Wales rose up and Wrexham invaded Chester, but Chester said, but we like it, we’d rather be Welsh, what are you going to do ?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/sta...wdkyDS3Gw&s=19

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Also known as appeasement. That ended well, didn't it?

---------- Post added at 08:18 ---------- Previous post was at 08:10 ----------

Hardly a "decent" percentage?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2022/02/5.png

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

A fat lot of good sanctions will do. They don't care. This will simply send them into the arms of China.

What Putin really won't like is if we offer the remaining Eastern European countris membership of NATO. That would really piss him off, but the problem with Putin is that he detests the West so much, there's no telling how he would react.

China and Russia acting together is of grave concern, in my view.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Agree with you on China but at the moment, China does not seem over-enthusiastic with Russia's actions at the moment. Definitely a relationship to be closely observed.

Which Eastern European countries are you referring to? Apart from Ukraine, I think all European countries that border Russia are NATO members.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Finland would be the main one. Sweden isn't on the border but would be welcomed by NATO as well.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Yes, would be good to see those two join.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Yeah, 'cos another couple of unread letters on Putins desk will make so much difference :D

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

How long before Putin turns off the gas supply to Europe?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

That's paying for his troops so no time soon.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Germany has pulled Nord stream 2!

https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status...77887996366849

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin has admitted Donetsk People's Republic's independency. Also for years now Russia have been giving away russian passports to the citizens of DPR. Now if Ukraine will try to retake the DPR's territories by force, it would mean that Ukraine is attaking russian citizens. That could be a provocation that Putin is waiting to invade Ukraine.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Welcome … there’s the whiff of information warfare about your post. Are you involved?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

BREAKING: Prime Minister Boris Johnson announces from House of Commons that 5 Russian banks and several Russian oligarchs will have their assets frozen and banned from trading with UK in a raft of first set of Sanctions on Russia.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Starmer calls on them to ban Russia Today and kick Russia out of the Swift system.

Ed Davey calls for army cuts to be reversed.

Very united atmosphere in the commons.

Meanwhile you'll never guess who Corbyn thinks is to blame for all this....

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I'm sure they will have taken action to protect their assets well in advance.

£2million of Russian money has been donated to the Tory party, and a quarter of the cabinet have taken bungs from the Ruskies. Dont think they'll want to bite the hand that feeds them too much.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-took-25123091

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin/Gazprom is selling greater volumes of gas to China already. And Russia has been holding military manoeuvres with China recently.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Various talking heads are coming out saying that regions of Eastern Ukraine who identify as ethnically Russian never wanted to be part of Ukraine would do well to remember the results of the 1991 Independence Referendum. Even the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions voted nearly 80% 'yes' for independence.

Here a nice map showing the percentage of 'no' votes;
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FML3T2MW...jpg&name=small

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

That is the concern - you don't give those in power money for nothing. Words need to be matched with deeds and already we're hearing how at least one sizeable Russian bank seem to have swerved the sanctions list. Let's hope it's more cock-up than conspiracy.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Fake News from a lefty rag. I wouldn’t mop up dog piss with it.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Yes the Mail and Express seem to do a better job in those situations.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I think someone might disagree with you!

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1645544637
Source: https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/s...07666085957635

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I wouldn’t know. I don’t read them, or any other rag. You clearly do given the bullshit above.

---------- Post added at 15:59 ---------- Previous post was at 15:54 ----------

BREAKING: Russia’s Defence Minister, asks Russian legislators to approve the use of military force outside of Russia. Source: Press Association.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

They will either say yes or end up dead.