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Re: The future of television
Didn't have you down as a Telegraph reader, Mr K. ;)
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Just change the date your 5 year ( or is it 10 or 15 years??) timescale starts. Problem solved!
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The first line quoted hints at the direction of the article : "Britain is stuck with the license..."
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DE-TS-DM |
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Wow quite alot.......
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There are about 28 million households in the UK and each one of them requires a TV licence (unless they’re one of the very few that never receive broadcast tv, or BBC catch-up service). TV licence avoidance runs at around 6%, so there are around 1.68 million households without a licence.
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Do they have any ads on TV there Chris??
If they make people pay $$$$$,there shouldnt really be any ads! |
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Most of the UK’s 7 public service broadcasters are funded by their commercial operations, which includes showing adverts on their channels. The BBC is funded mostly by the proceeds of the TV licence but it supplements this with commercial operations. It isn’t allowed to mix the two though, and its UK TV channels are not allowed to show adverts or get sponsorship. However, the TV licence is not a BBC subscription. In law, it is a licence to operate television reception equipment. Legally, you need a licence to operate a TV set much as you need a licence to drive a car on a public road. That’s why not having a TV licence is a criminal offence that lands you in court where you can get a large fine and a criminal record. In practice, as almost all the TV licence fee goes to the BBC (a small amount part-funds a small commercial public service channel that operates in the Welsh language) it is now widely seen as a compulsory subscription. It is most loudly complained about by those who claim they never consume any of the BBC services it pays for. As these services include 8 TV channels, 6 national radio stations, 41 local and regional radio stations and a massive news website I’m usually pretty sceptical about anyone who makes that claim. |
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TBH I believe that the Welsh, Irish and Scottish language channel's should be a pay channel, as the amount of people that watches them surely cannot justify the cost of making them.
IIRC less than 2% of the UK can speak them. |
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In the interests of balance, some may be interested in this article.
https://www.digitaltveurope.com/2021...-vod-channels/ Sounds a bit pie in the sky to me, but I’m sure jfman will want to watch it! :D [EXTRACT] Video technology company Unified Streaming has launched Unified Remix VOD2Live, a new product that it says enables OTT providers to present VOD programming in new curatable linear channels. The approach to presenting VOD content in the form of linear channels is designed to replicate the lean-back TV experience and enable easier discovery. |
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However as I’ve said all along it costs buttons to create a linear channel from content you own the rights to. Whether that’s broadcast, or an automated playlist, is neither here nor there. |
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As I have said before, the TV companies will only continue to provide linear TV while it makes them money. Once it is no longer worth their while to run all those channels, with all the time and expense of scheduling and filling the gaps in the schedule with dross (which still has to be paid for), they will honour their commitment to their shareholders to maximise their profits. Uploading content to a streamer is far more straight forward than the alternative. When you add up - The number of staff required all in all for scheduling; - The building space they require; - The cost of the rights to show cheaper programmes to fill the gaps (there are no gaps on VOD); - The satellite transponder space required or the costs of broadcasting space from transmitters, etc; I think you will find it costs rather more than buttons to run TV channels. The only considerations really are whether the government can ensure the rollout of broadband within their existing timetable, which now seems to be in doubt, and for how long most viewers will continue to give conventional broadcast channels the support they have now. Those are the real considerations, not some romantic view that some people have about watching TV the old fashioned way. |
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I suggest next Sunday night you go onto this new fangled social media platform called Twitter about 10pm and see how popular BBC 1 was the previous hour. |
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Is this a debate or an argument? if it's the former some politeness is required. So let's see rather more politeness please.
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Or is that not linear television again? ---------- Post added at 12:07 ---------- Previous post was at 10:14 ---------- Just for reference Line of Duty had 10 million on the overnights and it's now pushing past 15 million. While it's not possible to say all 10 million watched between 9 and 10, it's not credible to pretend they all waited and watched it between 10 and whatever the cut off is for the overnights. |
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Anyway, we will never agree on that, so no point in pursuing the discussion further. Ooh, look... https://advanced-television.com/2021...start-to-year/ [EXTRACT] The first quarter of 2021 saw a number of records broken on iPlayer: As well as being the biggest quarter on record, January is now iPlayer’s most successful month, with 652 million streams. The first full week of that month (4th – 10th) was the biggest week ever, with 163 million streams. The 10th of January is iPlayer’s best single day with programmes streamed 26 million times – driven partly by four very popular third round FA Cup matches streaming live on iPlayer, including Marine v Tottenham Hotspur. The first episode of crime thriller The Serpent is iPlayer’s biggest episode of the year so far, having been streamed 6 million times. The box set of the series was streamed a total of 33 million times between January and March on iPlayer. The returning series of Line of Duty has also been a hit with viewers, as the first episode of AC-12’s latest case saw over 3.6 million streams in just 11 days up to the end of March. The previous series have also performed strongly on iPlayer, with the Line of Duty box set streamed 35 million times in the first three months of the year. |
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You do realise these records were all being broken while a lot of people were stuck at home with nothing else to do, yes?
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He can write persistently about the success of streaming but he's the only person who sees the world in such a binary manner. People are streaming old Line of Duty because the new one is coming on, not the other way around. Broadcast television serves as a prompt for people to revisit, to nudge their friends to watch it for the first time, etc. |
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True, Chris, and as a result, the public is getting more and more used to accessing their programmes via VOD.
There have been a number of articles about this recently, demonstrating that an increasing number of people are now viewing VOD rather than the normal channels. As they do so, the old ways of viewing will appear increasingly inflexible and time-wasting. It’s very drip-drip, but once that message gets through and people get used to viewing in this way, it will takeoff. People in their 40s and 50s are currently getting the nudge from their children, too. ---------- Post added at 16:59 ---------- Previous post was at 16:55 ---------- Quote:
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Rubbish Old Boy. You've still never, at any point, illustrated how the trend reaches zero.
The fact you're into the depths of a scheduler requiring accomodation is the desperation you've turned to. Literally a laptop and a desk. Not going to break the bank for a multi billion pound organisation. Trend iPhone sales 2007-11 and tell me how many iPhones there should be in the world by now and explain why it didn't happen. |
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I'll repeat what I posted on the first page of this thread
OK, let's start off as we mean to go on. Can we keep the discussions on the arguments/positions put forward, and not on the people posting them. If there is a discrepancy/inaccuracy in the positions, feel free to point it out, but don't let frustrations/emotion make the postings personal attacks or derogatory. Some people are not adhering to this request, and may receive time-outs if they continue... |
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As for the scheduler issue, what you say about scheduling may be true of tinpot channels such as ‘Talking Pictures’, for example, which I hear is run from a garden shed! But the bigger, popular channels are a different proposition. I-Phones? I’m not sure what they have to do with the price of eggs. |
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Trends...
In the first 5 years of iPhone sales, the sales multiplied by 60x after the first year, then sales growth stabilised, and since 2015, has remained constant (in fact, dropped a bit after 2015). I believe the point is that constant growth in any line of business is not guaranteed. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...cal-year-2007/ |
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Reflecting Chris's point the other day about the pandemic-led streaming boom, Netflix is now reporting growth below target. Interesting to see it blaming last year's growth too.
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Not surprising - they really just ate their own lunch last year, gaining a good chunk of the subs they might otherwise have had to work longer and harder to attract. The double whammy is unfortunate, with the forthcoming new content slowdown caused by the same pandemic that also caused the rapid increase in subs. Institutional investors will be worried that insufficient new content over the coming months will test the commitment of some of their newer subscribers, who may only have signed up because they were stuck at home.
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Just found this, which is interesting.
https://advanced-television.com/2021...egy-for-youth/ The reason for me that it’s interesting is that it is acknowledged that scheduled TV means extra work for the schedulers. That extra work means extra cost. Something that some of us on this forum seem to believe is unimportant from a broadcaster’s point of view. When you combine the extra cost with the viewing trends, this gives a pretty good indication of which way we are going. I accept completely that the neanderthals will not agree. However, I would point out that neanderthals were subject to a best before date! :D[COLOR="Silver"] But more generally, once you are freed of the constraints of scheduling and programming a linear channel, it becomes really exciting in terms of the possibilities of the different genres we might venture into – such as factual programmes. On ITV2, we have been very successful in becoming the No1 destination for young adults and we did that by really targeting them and focussing on funny, often irreverent, entertainment programming with a tone that ran through all the content. We prided ourselves that as a viewer you come in, lean back, have fun, and “But more generally, once you are freed of the constraints of scheduling and programming a linear channel, it becomes really exciting in terms of the possibilities of the different genres we might venture intoq all the content. We prided ourselves that as a viewer you come in, lean back, have fun, and we programmed it so every programme led neatly into the next, it’s all about inheritance, it’s about 9pm junctions and watersheds. But guess what, on demand it’s not…and when you’re free of those linear channel constraints there’s other things you can do in programming terms…” |
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Where does it say scheduled programmes mean extra work?
It mentions constraints involved in linear programming, but not extra work - or is that an assumption? |
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You can only take your analogies so far, Hugh. Advertisers are key to Freeview, but if they are left selling their wares to people who cannot afford their products ... well, I’ll leave it to you to complete that sentence. ---------- Post added at 19:08 ---------- Previous post was at 19:06 ---------- Quote:
Just saying’.... |
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Although I have to say I’m getting a bit past caring. I might just let events prove my argument. |
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Please highlight where, in that article, it states that scheduled TV means extra work? |
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“Neanderthals”????
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Breaking News .... scheduled TV means TV schedulers have to work ... :dozey:
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Swings/roundabouts |
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11 million watched Line of Duty last night. Most watched drama on UK television in 13 years.
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The schedule aced that in the 9-10 slot. |
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My memory is not as good as yours.;) |
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The rapidly increasing interest in the car was the key to what would happen in the future, just as the rapidly increasing use of streaming is today. However, I understand that such thoughts are outside of your comfort zone, so happy to leave it there. The one certainty we have is that change happens. |
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(point of information - rail passenger journeys have doubled in the last 40 years) |
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I was not the one who said that conventional viewing would have to get to near zero before existing channels were scrapped. Advertising revenue just has to fall to a level that doesn't make it worthwhile. |
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The car, despite huge popularity, convenience and relative affordability does not have 100% share of journey made. Streamers, despite huge popularity, convenience and affordability have similar issues reaching 100% market share. Consider the railways - despite a loss being made on almost every single journey it still gets state subsidy to provide a service in the public interest to those who shun the popularity, convenience and affordability of the car. You've made an amazing comparison here OB. For once. The bad news is it reaches the opposite conclusion from the one you were pushing for. |
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Nobody here is claiming TV isn’t in a process of evolution. All we are saying is - as with the private car in Old Boy’s analogy - trends and growth in competitive markets rarely hit 100% and where they do rarely in such a narrow timeframe. OB incorrectly charts an accelerated growth of streaming and ignores that on demand cable services that existed long before. BBC iPlayer launched in 2007. Yet still, 11 million people sat down and watched BBC One last night. Maybe another 4 or so will catch up on demand. Rational consumers in the marketplace. Many with streaming services. The vast majority with internet. Sat down and went to the top of their EPGs in prime time. 11 million people aren’t Neanderthals. Or if they are there’s a lot of dying out to go. |
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I must admit I'm curious to know which ones Richard is thinking of. I can't think of any. The nearest I can get is some of the ITV regional franchise holders, who didn't cease trading and go off air, but in some cases went off air because they lost the franchise, and where they were unable to diversify they then had to cease trading. I suspect that's not what he's alluding to though, and in any case the mechanics of the ITV regional franchise system really has nothing to do with the commercial viability of TV channels today, whether they're operated by PSBs or not.
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Was S2 (the early days Scottish ITV2) under a PSB remit? Genuinely don't know.
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No, it wasn't. No additional channels provided by STV plc, ITV plc, Channel 4 or Viacom (which owns Channel 5) are PSB. Only the channels in EPG slots 1-5, plus all additional BBC branded channels, are public service. None of these have ever failed as businesses and been forced to go off air.
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It looks to me like he meant gone out of business as in gone bust because their business was no longer viable, which wasn’t the case with BBC3. Hard to say until he comes back in here and clarifies though.
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Oh dear, another streaming company not playing by the rulebook..sorry ruleblog. ;) When will these thriving multinational companies learn that linear TV is on its way out? ;)
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Can't remember it's name, I think it was one of the Welsh ITV companies that went bust. It didn't get much advertising because it's fanchise area had a sparse population. The solution was to tag it's area onto a neighbouring franchise area.
In fact, a lot of the new ITV companies came perilously close to financial collapse. Once established, however, they were referred to by one owner as being the nearest thing to being given a licence to print money! Found it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wale...rth_Television |
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ITV's Head of Digital Channels & Acquisitions says youth programming will go onto VOD first as "the linear channels are going nowhere":
https://rxtvinfo.com/2021/on-demand-...youth-channels |
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https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/st...641315330?s=21
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"Impartiality" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there… ;) |
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I wouldn’t worry… It’s more than balanced out by the fact that the BBC rarely advertises for journalists anywhere other than in the Guardian. ;)
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ITV wants a radical review of the public service broadcasting requirements.
https://www.digitaltveurope.com/2021...rgent-reforms/ |
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https://careerssearch.bbc.co.uk/ There are 7 BBC jobs on the Guardian website,, & 173 on the BBC Careers website. |
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13 million Neanderthals last night.
Given LoD started on BBC 2 on a Wednesday night I’m guessing most caught up streaming but watched linear last night. It’s almost as if viewers aren’t dogmatic. |
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All I see in the present is setback after setback to your 2035 vision. Broadband won’t be up to it, there’s nobody with “deep pockets” waiting to buy the Premier League rights and millions of viewers continue to watch linear television when it suits them. |
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The fact that occasionally, linear channels will clock up a decent audience is not surprising, given that the streamers are forcing the terrestrials and Sky to up their game. And while an exceptional 13 million people watching this one series is a good result, it still doesn't compare to the audiences of 16 million that Coronation Street used to achieve on a regular basis. |
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What changes between now and whichever predetermined date you’ve arbitrarily pulled out the air this week? People who clearly have internet access and enabled devices still watch linear television. Despite having the option people watch as broadcast on linear as a preference to streaming. To the average viewer who views them as complementary, and not competing, technologies. That begs the question where, when and why do they arbitrarily change their viewing habits to the point linear ceases to be viable? When broadcasters stop? When does that happen? When there’s no viewers? It’s the chicken and egg scenario with no chicken. And no egg. |
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Not everyone has dropped linear.
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Fundamentally those kinds of figures are pushed by generating hype, getting people talking about it on social media and having the cast on a series of magazine programming/puff pieces on BBC News/Norton/This Morning. Dumping seven episodes on an arbitrary Monday morning wouldn’t generate this level of interest. Even if universally available and “free”. |
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I am, actually, keeping an open mind on this, but I have not read anything that points to a different scenario to the one I have painted. Your reference to ‘Line of Duty’ is utter desperation if that is meant to prove me wrong, which it doesn’t. I am quite prepared to see the 2035 date slip without wanting to jump over a cliff if the unexpected happens. One crucial factor in that date is the government’s broadband rollout, which has already slipped. Clearly, if that keeps being put back, that will affect my thinking. However, a nice audience figure recorded on linear TV for a popular BBC1 programme cuts no ice with me. That big swing in audience habits for streaming services simply hasn’t happened to the extent that it will change anything yet, but I never said it would. For someone who dislikes straw man arguments, you certainly like clutching at straws! Anyway, let’s just sit back and see what happens. Neither of us are in a position to prove anything at this stage. |
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I’m simply indicating to you that you haven’t fully understood the size or scale of the “problem” that you perceive. The first being that most of the population are happy to watch linear, catch up/streaming, time shifted broadcasts as and when it suits them. The choice offers far greater flexibility and viewing experiences (e.g. can you safely go onto social media?). You perceive them to be “Neanderthals”. Quote:
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Amazon Prime currently advertising for a "Prime Video Linear TV Senior Product Manager, Technical".
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On a related note, from earlier this year https://www.mediaplaynews.com/netfli...vice-globally/ Quote:
---------- Post added at 12:49 ---------- Previous post was at 12:13 ---------- Interesting article from a couple of days ago. https://www.fastcompany.com/90630158...mething-button Quote:
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’These options have downsides, though: They’re all supported by ads, and in many cases they don’t let you pause, rewind, or fast-forward whatever’s on.)’. However, I concede that some apps may contain linear TV channels (Pluto and Now already do in the UK) but my point has always been that the TV channels we have now will disappear. What is the point in having ITV, ITV2, ITV 3, etc, when you can have all of your programming under one app, like the ITV Hub? As for whether the new linear channels on apps will prove popular, that remains to be seen. The Netflix idea of having linear channels within its app without adverts is probably the best bet. I haven’t met a single person who watches Pluto linear TV. |
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If they want to watch the next programme, or explore the app, either is a positive outcome for ITV. You are under the mistaken belief that one of them is negative. |
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