Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

If I had to bet I still think he would win the nomination.

That's assuming he even wants it. I think he might prefer to have rallies and attention without the actual job.

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

Yup - quite a lot are solid Republican/Democrat, but there are a couple of Senate seats that could go either way.

Arizona (Mark Kelly) - currently Democrats, could go either way
Florida (Marco Rubio) - currently Republican, probably stay that way
Georgia (Raphael Warnock) - just became Democrats, could go either way
Nevada (Catherine Cortez Mato) - Democrats, could go either way
New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan) - Democrats, could go either way
North Carolina (Richard Burr*) - Republican, could go either way
Ohio (Rob Portman*) - Republican, probably stay that way
Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey*) - Republican, could go either way
Wisconsin (Ron Johnson) - Republican, could go either way

So, out of potentially 9 Senate seats, the thinking (currently) is that 2 will stay Republican (Florida & Ohio), and the other 7 could make the difference to either side to be in the majority.

Could be exciting!

*retiring (all Republicans)

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

I don't think Trump will run again, he can't rebuild his reputation and the presidency doesn't pay. He'll be better off writing a book and trying to save his businesses.

I also don't think there will be a continuity Trump successor, he was a one off.

Neither will there be a more centrist candidate, that (in the form of Jeb Bush) was rejected last time out.

No, I think Cruz will take a run at it, and some completely out of left field.

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

I think Cruz would attempt to run as continuity Trump. Cruz couldn't have pandered more to Trump if he tried.

Trump himself was at least his own man, even if it was ego-driven. If Trump is the school bully then Cruz is the little weasel who follows him around, sucks up and endures whatever abuse he gets (Trump called his wife ugly) so long as he still gets to hang around him.

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

Trump’s approval rating within Republican Party is 87%. You got State local GOP applying to censure their State representatives in the U.S Senate. Louisiana’s Cassidy was censured in the immediate aftermath of the Senate vote on Saturday, Burr could be next for North Carolina. The Republican Party isn’t yet ready to turf out Trump.

And why would they, he just won the Republican Party, 75,000,000 votes in a U.S Election, the highest ever for a any Sitting President, I know Joe Biden won 80+ Million, but he wasn’t a sitting president during an election cycle. Biden has to prove himself for next four years to sustain it.

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

Actually, as I understand it, the Constitution does not limit the power of impeachment to serving presidents, or even serving government officers. Look up William Belknap, Secretary of War, who resigned when he was accused of corruption, then, as with Trump, was impeached after he left. Also, as with Trump, the senate, when voting, failed to reach the required two thirds majority, so was acquitted. His defence argued, as the republicans have, that the senate does not have the power to convict when the person has left.

Personally, I do think Trump was guilty. He didn't directly tell the rioters to riot, but bearing in mind the number of people coming into the capital (and I refuse to believe that many people would have suddenly turned up in Washington and not been noticed by the Authorities, who likely would have alerted the Administration), but he should have asked people to leave. He didn't. He did ask them to demonstrate peacefully, but having spent the last four years winding them up, I'd be surprised if he didn't realise that certain rioters would ignore the word "peacefully", especially as it was only said once.

However, I think Trump has been clever in one way. As one lawyer I watched said, he acts like a Godfather. He never directly orders that anything remotely illegal happens to anyone, but heavily implies that something bad should happen, leaving some functionary to actually do the bad stuff, but leaving the Godfather with plausible deniability.

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

It's generally harder to unseat a sitting President though. Already being in the White House is an advantage and it's harder for the challenger, there aren't that many one-term Presidents since WW2. Most win their re-election.

But yeah we don't know how Biden will do. I also suspect he won't run again so it'll be a fresh election rather than challenging an Incumbent.

I think Trump is favourite as I said I just don't think it's a slam dunk when there are 3 more years to go until the Primaries. Losing a prior election is a disadvantage.

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

Couple of flaws in the above. Trump was impeached before he left office and it is not Constitutional as per Constitutional expert, Alan Dershowitz. The text of the Constitution refers to the current president, not the former. You cannot remove from office, someone no longer in office. Trump is now a private citizen and the Senate lacks jurisdiction to try him.

The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court usually resides in the judges chair, in cases of Presidential impeachment, but John Roberts refused to reside Trump’s 2nd impeachment trial, this would lean on the argument, if Trump went to Supreme Court, they’d probably agree it’s not a Constitutional impeachment.

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

So he remains impeached without recourse. As a private citizen he cannot contest the impeachment as that would be against the constitution.

In other news.

Trump Cuts Ties With Giuliani: Advisor Says Attorney No Longer Representing ‘In Any Legal Matters’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisond...h=39aa664131d3

Re: Trump impeachment: Senate trial to start
 

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...atement-469150