Re: Brexit (New).
 

Ridiculous comment

Re: Brexit (New).
 

They haven't received the letter from her yet.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It's possibly not inevitable, but it is highly likely while the current impasse lasts. What other solution is there? What if there's no agreement in the Commons to extend the deal? 29 March is only next week! There's no time for anything except a no deal if an extension isn't agreed, nor for Theresa May's deal if Bercow won't allow a further vote.

The EU is clearly not going to re-negotiate at this late stage and with the Commons in disarray.

The people must, and will, be heard!

---------- Post added at 13:23 ---------- Previous post was at 13:18 ----------

The number of unemployed in the UK is still coming down and now stands at its lowest ever level. Despite Brexit uncertainty.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Excellent news Theresa May is not prepared to extend Brexit beyond June.

I have never been more confident of our EU membership continuing into July.

---------- Post added at 13:26 ---------- Previous post was at 13:24 ----------

The Commons don’t have to agree with an extension of Article 50. The Government exercises that through Royal Perogative. It leaves us in breach of treaty obligations only, but legally within the EU.

You are also conflating record levels of employment and low unemployment. Your assumption works only if the population is a fixed number, which it isn’t.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Never mind Theresa May. The EU won't even allow that long.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The EU seem to suggest it has to be May or the end of this year, They don't want it clashing with EU elections.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

They have yet to establish what is in their interests and will agree this next week among the leaders of the Member States, not the Commission or negotiators.

I’m sure much discussion will be around the potential of May’s government falling. Arguably the EU have nothing to lose with an unlimited extension, we are paying in money as long as we are in.

Insisting on the 23rd May is quite a good strategy. If we want the 30th June we have to have elections, and having done so an indefinite delay is a possibility.

30th June without elections will have some rhetoric around “not had elections, we must leave” which the EU would seek to avoid.

Similar to the 29th March, having elections is another mark that has to be passed in the heads of the most passionate Brexiteers to dilute their position.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Suspect Labour might end up voting for the crappy deal if the alternative is no deal. leaving the ERG/Brextremists in the minority . The old girl might have played a blinder, by accident.... It'll be the end of the Tory party, but its a minor consolation.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think this is the play.

She has judged that the ERG and the DUP votes are beyond reach, but the prospect of No Deal will bring enough Labour MPs on board to swing MV3.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The Speaker has granted an emergency debate on a delay to Brexit to be held today.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-ther...to-eu-11670753

Re: Brexit (New).
 

this man will do any thing to help remain.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Rumours that May is doing something big tonight...

Election?
No Deal?
Dominos Pizza?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Yeah, he's a top bloke ;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

l will have the meat feast pizza as at least that is edible.;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Sacking half of the front bench?

---------- Post added at 15:32 ---------- Previous post was at 15:31 ----------

Not if your on a ruddy diet it's not:mad:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

She's invited leaders of the opposition to no.10... PM statement later today.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Get ready for no deal.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

She's a pain in the arse...I can't work out which way the wind blows with her she says one thing and does another...then it's I won't quit...hold on if it's a longer delay I might quit or we go on the 29th March...I'm sure she's after a bigger title than thatcher.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Rumours that TM is to make a statement outside No.10 - denied by her Head of Media.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Is the word of the Head of Media more or less credible than the PM herself?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Seriously, who is surprised by this? All along, a lot of remainers seem to have thought that the EU would do anything to keep us in, when the truth is we have shown ourselves to be split right down the middle over this, to the point of paralysis even when conventions like the Executive managing foreign policy and parties more-or-less following their manifestos should have provided a safety valve to ensure government could continue. May has drained all patience and political capital. The EU has said for weeks that an extension must be justified by a plan, yet the only plan she has offered is to re-run a vote she has lost spectacularly on two occasions and which Bercow now says she cannot run again.

From the perspective of the French Foreign Ministry, or anywhere else in Europe, what do they gain by granting an extension? What’s in it for them?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

You can both put them in the same pot as credibility disappeared a long time ago.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

You’re assuming they are prepared for no deal. While I’m sure they are more prepared than us - we don’t have the legislation in place let alone the logistics to operate as a third country - it may suit European businesses and ports to extend.

Obviously, they wouldn’t tell us this!

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Government PR deliberately lying to the Press is an immediate resignation issue. They don’t tell outright lies over trivial matters like the timing of statements.

---------- Post added at 16:05 ---------- Previous post was at 16:01 ----------

The EU is nothing if not pragmatic, when it comes to the crunch. Think about it - No Deal isn’t actually No Deal. It’s a series of pragmatic mini-deals, made wherever it’s essential to keep things moving. If “The” deal won’t fly, this is the next best thing. The alternative is a EU election campaign that will be overshadowed by Brexit. I’m certain they don’t want that any more than May does.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Head of Media hasn't out right ruled it out as far as I am aware

Re: Brexit (New).
 

https://news.sky.com/story/live-ther...to-eu-11670753


Commons anger as Theresa May fails to attend debate on Brexit extension

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It’s also worth pointing out that some have suspected the outcome was only ever going to be a No Deal - planned for, and choreographed.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/s...00555825733632

---------- Post added at 16:14 ---------- Previous post was at 16:13 ----------

I didn't think the EU would be that strong on it tbh.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Interesting! I think they're just fed up by the British indecision and know that the trade agreement is the key part, not the withdrawal agreement.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

So, May has to go for MV3, get it passed, then she gets a technical extension in order to implement it. If the Commons rejects MV3, or Bercow refuses to allow it to be debated, then we leave with No Deal in 9 days.

Bring it on.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...03987747868672



---------- Post added at 16:28 ---------- Previous post was at 16:26 ----------

Also this later down in the thread:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I am all the more certain that the strategy is now to go over the heads of the DUP and the ERG and to scare Labour MPs into supporting MV3, or at least abstaining. Tusk has done May a great big favour by putting No Deal firmly back on the table. It really is deal or no deal now - no long extension, no election, no referendum.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No deal still looks a real possibility though.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

At least it's clear now. It can't happen by accident, the people who vote or don't vote for the deal can be later held to account for what happens.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I agree. This isn’t a bluff - we have reached the end of the road. There will be no more talking. We either take the deal on offer or walk away.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

:tu:

Indeed . . and if we had decided on a 'no deal' exit a year or so ago we would be in a better position, and much of this tomfoolery and ridiculous political posturing wouldn't have happened.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I’m really looking forward to hearing Labour, the SNP, the TIGgers and the Lib Dems squeal. For all their complaints about May’s indecision, their entire strategy has rested on preventing any decisions being taken until a referendum could be secured. Now they have to be seen to back May, or back No Deal, or be spineless abstainers - which will feature heavily on every electoral poster in the north of England come the next election.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Labour clearly have not backed a referendum and I doubt the Liberal Democrats, TIG or the SNP will suffer amongst their own electorates for pushing for one.

As for the electoral consequences well that's now very much going to depend on what happens next. If No Deal is more painful than is being assumed I think a lot of voters will suddenly 'forget' they supported it and blame the current Government, not the opposition.

Personally I think the ERG are handing the keys to No 10 over to Corbyn at a time of big economic disruption.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think Corbyn is the only reason Labour has been unable to say aloud that it wanted another referendum, but I have little doubt that is the direction they have been edging.

I also think the ERG calculates that an act of God Himself couldn’t install Corbyn in No.10 ...

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Yup but in the end Corbyn's stalling has paid off. His whole plan has clearly been to resist being caught having a position on this until the very end and forever holding up a mythical, non-existent, perfect deal instead. It's probably worked at least well enough for him to avoid being too badly burned by whatever happens next.

---------- Post added at 17:09 ---------- Previous post was at 17:00 ----------

The Spectator pointing out it might not be game over if May's deal fails: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...ong-extension/

Hardly ideal if they want Remainers to back May's deal.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

h/t @HugoRifkind

---------- Post added at 17:23 ---------- Previous post was at 17:13 ----------

I think she is at the stage of not giving a toss what her MPs want - resigning soon, do we think?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It is a bluff, and not a very good at me ! If MV3 lost then a long delay, he's only said it would rule out a short delay. No one apart from the usual fringe suspects want No Deal. The EU maybe saying hard things atm, as they rightly sense we're weak and on the ropes. Standard practice when opening negotiations !

Re: Brexit (New).
 

A statement by the PM outside No.10 at 8:15 tonight.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Which will be another attempt to kick the can down the road again.

FGS LEAVE!!

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Rumour has it Corbyn walks out of meeting with PM because independent party were there.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Several sources say that now.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

That might have been the interpretation at 10:45 this morning, no so much now. Things move fast around here.

---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:37 ----------

Yes, i predict she will say to the nation, it’s the deal or no deal, I Also think the EU will will also take that position.

Taking way the safety net from parliament that voted to reject no deal, which was never in their power anyway.

It’s the end game. The choice is clear, there is no third way.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I just heard that May is hardening to a no deal.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Having threatened the ERG she’s now onto threatening the remainers. There’s zero chance of no deal, without an active choice by both Government and Parliament to facilitate it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

:clap::clap::clap::clap:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Her legacy is this deal. She will push for this, she has the EU backing her.

The EU have set the condition, extension only for agreement of deal.

May has played it perfectly.

Any MP that voted to take No Deal off the table has to vote for the deal, otherwise it will be No Deal and there’s nothing they can do about it.

You can slag her off, but i predict she will win. If parliament vote down her deal, and de facto invoke No Deal, that’s on them, not her.

For the record, i think her deal is a decent effort.

Labour have always just obfuscated and just want a GE, now that’s not no way going to happen so will be interesting to see how their MPs respond.

---------- Post added at 20:09 ---------- Previous post was at 20:03 ----------

apart from revoking A50 they have no power to stop A50.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I agree her deal is a decent effort but she is the Prime Minister and if there is a no deal and consequences are on her as well as Parliament. She is leading this process, just about.

---------- Post added at 20:11 ---------- Previous post was at 20:10 ----------

Will meet with Hamas and the IRA but the Independent Group is a step too far. :rolleyes: Utter child.

---------- Post added at 20:14 ---------- Previous post was at 20:11 ----------

BTW I think Remainers in Parliament are gambling on a long extension if the deal is voted down since technically it wasn't ruled out but I think they are miscalculating because who would ask for it?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Government can extend any time it pleases if the EU agrees. You are taking a very literal interpretation of Tusk’s remarks. He didn’t rule a longer extension out.

On top of that there’s always the potential to replace the Government for MPs.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

If an arsonist threatens to burn down your house unless you pay a ransom, it's not your fault if they burn your house down...

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Yes, “if the EU agrees”. They have just stated only on condition of accepting May’s deal.


he didn’t rule it in.

Yeah right, really helpful. Dreamland.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Well, that was a pointless update speech.

Nothing new.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

May starting to abuse these 'address to the nation' moments now, say something new if you're doing that.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Well... she did say she’s not prepared to extend beyond 30th June.

We can chalk that up with “no general election” and “we are leaving on March 29th”.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

nothing new at all same ole same ole she totally lost the plot

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Utterly pathetic..

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No need to be disrespectful because you disagree.

The leaders of the EU27 haven’t agreed anything yet.

Tusk not ruling something in or out means you cannot definitively say one way or the other what he intends.

Remember. The default position isn’t that we leave at all. The Withdrawal Act can be amended over and over.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Would you like cream, ice cream or custard to go with massive slice of humble pie you’ve just ordered?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No, no.

If you ask someone to design you a new house, which they do and given the planning restrictions you’re generally happy with. Then others object to the scheme and prevent you from building your house even though in outline planning they okayed it. Then you complain that you haven’t got your new house.

Who should you complain to?

---------- Post added at 20:52 ---------- Previous post was at 20:51 ----------

Brilliant speech.

And as i expected.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Well your last statement is a bare faced lie

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No this is pointing out to the population, that Parliament are headless spivs and need to stop looking after their own interests and start thinking about the nations

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It was a good speech and i think the public will agree with what she said,watching these idiots squabble is pathetic and it's grinding people down.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Come again?

That’s exactly what she just did.

---------- Post added at 20:58 ---------- Previous post was at 20:56 ----------

No it isn’t, it’s exactly as i said.

Where did i go wrong?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Preparing the population they might have to actually vote for this deal if they want Brexit.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I predict the public will think exactly what they thought before.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

That’s a stretch, which she just categorically rejected.

This was speaking to Parliament via a national address.

Not every one watches PMQs or are actively engaged.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

‘ i predict she will say to the nation, it’s the deal or no deal’

She didn’t say that at all, directly or indirectly as per usual she left plenty of room to manoeuvre if required

She’s also has just blamed the very parliament she needs to back her deal, parliament will not let her get away with that

I was going to say the only person responsible for this is May but tbh I’ve found myself detesting Corbyn after his antics tonight’s

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I find it fascinating that in everything that has happened today, everyone has basically found validation of whatever they already thought would/should happen next.

Myself, I can see nothing in the speech May has just delivered that justifies the view that a referendum is on the way. The rhetoric about the weary public and it being “high time” politicians made the decisions are aimed squarely at the Commons.

I know you don’t like it but today, with the EU’s help, she’s called it. It’s time for MPs to show their hand. The game is almost over.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

As we know Theresa May categorically rejecting something is not equivalent to it being an impossible future event.

So what does she want? People to write to their MP? Tell YouGov they like the deal?

I’m sure as many people see her words tonight as had she said them at lunchtime via the dispatch box given the wall to wall coverage Brexit gets. Was she on BBC 1, or ITV?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Most likely, likewise a 2nd Ref would probably fail as i predict the public think the same as they did first time round.

But this was not aimed at the people, it was aimed at Parliament and to show how pathetic, paralysed and petulant parliament is. (Must get a bonus for alliteration there surely)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I wouldn’t be so sure if I were you, after three years of twists and turns I’m sure there are a couple left.

If May goes no deal the Tories will be out of power for the next three terms minimum. Money talks ultimately

Re: Brexit (New).
 

That’s because the only meaningful outcome from today is we will not leave the European Union on March 29th.

The fact she’s talking to the population at all, along with advertising of her deal on social media, when it’s got nothing to do with us means she’s preparing for the possibility.

The game is only just beginning. Getting past March 29th is a huge psychological win for remainers who will be emboldened that the hurdle has passed. There’s no meaningful reason June 30th is any more than another arbitrary, and artificial, deadline.

The one way May can guarantee her legacy is to win a public vote on her vote vs remain.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

You’re missing the point of the event.

She was talking to us but speaking to them (to quote Basil Fawlty). A public address on prime time TV gets everyone’s attention and gives the PM a PR advantage in the hearts and minds of the public. She’s cast herself as their defender against the perfidious Commons. But the substance of her address was a threat to MPs that it’s time to make the hard choice. We leave on 29 March without a deal, or at some point between late May and late June with the WA as agreed between the EU and HMG.

All the breathless commentary about the third, fourth and fifth options simply aren’t going to fly. The choice on offer is binary, and that’s all there is to it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

that’s pretty much how she left it, yes.

An impotent parliament that need pushing or dragging, screaming and kicking to her deal. All power to her.

---------- Post added at 21:20 ---------- Previous post was at 21:18 ----------

Nut say hello to shell.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think it's about time they just accepted the fact that we're leaving with or without a withdrawal agreement.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

At least that’s now framed as a thought than a fact.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

And how is parliament going to prevent her getting away with giving it a tongue lashing? By refusing to back the deal? The deal without which the EU will not agree to extend the A50 deadline?

She and Tusk have been out on manoeuvres together, make no mistake about that. If parliament continues to assert itself, it will bring about a no deal scenario for which every MP who voted down the WA will be personally blamed.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I am not sure she said anything to convince opposition MPs and whilst I agree they're pretty pathetic I include her just as much in that. There is so much she got wrong in this process: losing their majority, issuing article 50 without any plan in what she wanted, refusing to talk to other parties in spite of that lost majority until she lost the first vote, losing any basic trust by making promises about engagement or votes that never happened and so on. There was a suggest today of a Labour/Tory amendment that allows Parliament to give input on the next stage of talks, that's not going to be taken up.

And she wonders why the DUP don't trust any assurances they're given? And she wonders why the EU don't trust us on the backstop? She says anything to get though the day then drops it as soon as possible.

To be honest I fully expect that we'll break the withdrawal agreement before the two years is up anyway so the ERG might as well go for it, it's not going to be with the paper it's written on.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Not really, the various comments coming from many MP’s on Twitter etc it seems to have the opposite affect she was hoping for.

Youre calling endgame far far to early

Re: Brexit (New).
 

There’s a very long way to go, between now and March 29th and June 30th, but it’s clear it’s Mays deal or Mays deal.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

They may be blamed but only by idiots, intelligent people will realise she is the one responsible and should it go wrong the Tory party will be held accountable for many years to come

There’s more to come on this, stuff that none of us political analyst wannabes are privy too

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The people who vote against the deal are responsible, but so will she be. And so will the rest of the government.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Last week it was “May’s deal or no deal - we are leaving on March 29”.

If May was serious about no deal she’d just have done it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

As I said the tories will sit in a political wasteland for years

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I waiting for jeremy beadle to pop up I'm sure it's all a setup

Re: Brexit (New).
 

And that is a genuine reason to vote for it and get past this hurdle, there will be future battles to be won.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I agree, I would vote for it. But then I thought it was probably the best answer on the first vote too. I also think that it's the first step in moving on, the country is seriously and dangerously divided. Since then behaviour of her, the ERG and all of Parliament since has made me even more depressed and cynical about the whole thing that I thought possible.

---------- Post added at 21:42 ---------- Previous post was at 21:41 ----------

Tory MPs not happy it seems, might have made it less likely to pass unless the public really do rise up in support....

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Then after the outline planning, you changed everything completely and didn't deliver what you said you would; you have no one to complain to but yourself, as you didn't involve some of your neighbours after you had a small group of very vociferous neighbours (let's call them the Extensive Renovation Gardeners) said that some of the things you had agreed with the overall group were no longer acceptable, so you changed the plans, then found out that neither the ERG or the other neighbours were happy.

---------- Post added at 21:53 ---------- Previous post was at 21:49 ----------

How can an impotent parliament be stopping her deal? Impotent means unable to take effective action; helpless or powerless...

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Yes, cock on.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Interesting quote from Andrew Neil

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1108403528387739649

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The Times Political Editor thinks the reaction to her speech has pretty much killed what chance the deal has left: https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1108487563948507136

Re: Brexit (New).
 

How long before some idiot (Johnson?) suggests she spend two of the three month extension period going back to Brussels for a better deal and that they’ll fold if we test their resolve?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No they are not responsible, how many times do I have to say this?

Her deal is NOT Brexit, it's an absolutely crap deal, so quite rightly they keep on rejecting it and a good potion of the rejections are from Remainer MPs, they are and never will be to blame for opposing a shoddy deal.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No deal is better than a bad deal.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

As many as you like, it’s just I disagree