Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

A war would serious harm Russia's economy. Has Putin finally snapped?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I honestly think he has been waiting for something like this. i do not think he will stay in the Crimea

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

ffs!

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Not to mention those who predicted we'd be in and out of Afghanistan without a single shot being fired... :rolleyes:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Who predicted that?

We went into Afghanistan with the sole intention of removing the Taliban from power. There were always going to be shots fired, I don't recall anyone proposing any different.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

'Warmongers' :confused:

How would you feel if others on the forum called people who want to do nothing "appeasers" or "cowards".

Not really taking forward a rational debate on a complex subject by name-calling.....

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

John Reid IIRC. Whatever version of those words he uttered, given what had happened in Iraq, IMHO there was an effort to understate the likely ramifications of any involvement in Afghanistan in order to 'sell' the intervention to parliament and the country. That being my point.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

:clap:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Did you say rational debate? Not a snowball's chance in hell of rational debate on CF..;)
Personally I'd settle for a civilised discussion.:tu:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

We went into Afghanistan before Iraq :confused:.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I think someone did... ;)

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Equally inappropriate, IMHO.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I didn't call anyone appeasers. I said telling Ukraine that the EU will pull out of the trade deal and won't help them to avoid upsetting Russia, and effectively ceding them to Russia, would be appeasement. Which it is. Making concessions which are against the will of the country itself in order to avoid conflict is almost the textbook definition of the term.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I think the next 48hrs will make or break this, all it will take is a trigger happy soldier and off it will go. :(

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Probably. You suspect that's what they're hoping for. Ukraine should be careful to make sure it's not them. If Russia want a war then they have to be ones to start it (although invading probably counts as starting it).

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Full military mobilisation of Ukrainian army and airspace closed to non-civilian air traffic... And NATO emergency meeting this afternoon. Maybe the Turks will deny passage to any warships up the Bosphorous Strait.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26405635

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I was thinking this morning that this could be another Cuban missile crisis and this time the Russians will not back down.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

They've surrounded a Ukrainian infantry base and are refusing entry or exit...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Tora Bora took place in 2001 and bombing started before that , right after 911 i'm pretty sure.

Assuming you mean "Gulf War 2" as opposed to Bush senior's efforts.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

New head of Ukraine's navy 'defects' in Crimea.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26410431

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

We went into Afghanistan before Iraq-2. And I doubt he was referring a Desert Storm, as I'm sure shots were fired then?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Surely this is an "Act of War" from Russia

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes. And Afghanistan and Iraq2 were acts of war by America and ourselves. We set the example Russia is now following and TBH Russia's pretext for kicking off in the Crimea is rather better for ours when it came to bombing Iraq back to the stone age.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

You do have a valid point there Chris.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I agree,

My post was more of refuting the claim , that somehow we were promised to go in and out of Afghanistan without firing a shot. Which was total nonsense.

That aside, on this issue, best we stay out of it. although the Ukraine is an independent nation. The legacy ties with Russia especially in the Crimea, make this a " watch and see" more than a " get involved" situation.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I can't see Dave staying out of it. he likes attention too much.
it'll be another thing to put down on his CV to him.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I can we have no army left. We could not defend this country against a bunch of drunken boy scouts never mind the Russian bear. If it kicks off other countries would send in a sizeable force we might be able to muster maybe a few tanks and a few jackels.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

And who's fault is that. that we have no army left?

he can always say I'm going to send our unpaid volunteers over. when he addresses the world.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Providing it's at the weekend

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So that would be the S.A.S

Saturdays And Sundays :)

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The point is that we were led into all those conflicts by a Govt. which deliberately overstated the threats (e.g. WMDs) and understated the long term risks of what we were embarking on for reasons best known to themselves. I Never claimed that whatever Reid said was a promise, how could it be, but it was just another example of our politicians understating the reality in order to overcome opposition at the time. Given what has since happened in Afghanistan and Iraq, I hope we've learned some lessons from that.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-...stock-markets/

Also according to an article in The Times today Europe isn't as dependent on Russian Oil as it was in 2008. Economic sanctions from Europe and the US could wreck Russia's economy.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

And how would Putin react to that? The Russian psyche seems to be that they can endure whatever suffering is meted out but will always come back with more. Quite probably a legacy of WWII and other major historical events. Whether it's true or not, the EU being presented as trying to destroy Russia's economy in order to stir up sentiment there is the last thing we want I'd have thought. Is Putin a very clever chess player or irrational? A bit of both maybe? Great caution is required here because in circumstances such as these, one error of judgement could set off a tinderbox.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The question is how much dissent can he tolerate in his own country? A collapsing economy as he tries to recreate the Soviet Union might be too much for even Putin to cope with.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Or how effectively can he blame western forces of evil for any/all damage to his economy and in so doing stir up nationalistic support. Whatever the real reason for it, Russia descending into chaos would be a very big problem for all of us. I can't see Putin going anywhere soon - quietly or easily. He's becoming a very dangerous caricature of himself.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I think the American Republicans are stirring things up a bit .Senator Marco Rubio is calling for GW Bushes plans for a missile shield in Poland to be revived ,he is supported by Senator Graham who also blames Obama's weak foreign policy saying
"Every time the president goes on television and threatens someone like Putin, everybody’s eyes roll, including mine,” Graham told CNN. “We have a weak and indecisive president that invites aggression".

One thing the yanks need to remember is that this crisis is right on our doorstep not Americas ,should this turn into an America vs Russia testosterone display the immediate effects will be felt by us not America

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Obama's foreign policy is weak. Putin knows he can keep pushing it.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Weak compared to who ? previous presidents willing to turn Europe into an American missile base .

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

:clap:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

At least it gives them some leverage against Russia. Obama should be more forcible in threatening economic sanctions against Russia, expelling them from the G8 and so on.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I've no doubt that there will be economic sanctions imposed by the USA but i do think that the USA should let European countries take the lead in what action to take

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It'll be interesting to see, if this 'crisis' develops much further, just how 'unified' the EU approach is and how unanimous the support for any action is. It's at times like this that the Euro/single state rhetoric will be put to the test. Those EU states which rely heavily on Russian gas, for example, might be rather less inclined to support sanctions on Russia than those who don't.

Anyone checked out the share prices of the fracking companies lately BTW?... ;)

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

no but i'm expecting an announcement from British Gas this afternoon ;)

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Something like this do you reckon?

"British Gas regrets to inform customers that our prices will be rising with immediate effect due to increasing uncertainty in European energy market..."

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Comrade Putin needs that gas revenue just as much as those EU countries need the gas. He's not universally liked in his own back yard, far from it in fact so, if Putin wants to fall due to action from the inside as the Russian economy crumbles then he just needs to carry on as-is.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

You can bet that will come over the following weeks.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Despite the falsehood in which we went in, Iraq has been a fairly successful operation.

Afghanistan, however, not so good.

When we first went into Afghanistan we completely took the Taliban by surprise and we were pretty much very close to wiping them out, and if we had concentrated on that we may have a chance to come away with something like a successful operation.


But we didn't, we turn our focus onto Iraq, and instead of wiping out the Taliban we let them regroup and reorganise. That is the reason
Iraq was such a mistake.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

My worry is who gets the blame for Putin's stupidity, if that's what it is. Whether he can sufficiently manipulate public opinion to gain support or not, either way it could be very bad news. It'd be nice to think that there'd be those within the upper echelons who'd ensure his prompt and painless removal from office if things got worse but how realistic is that? He's managed to stay put in one form or another for quite some time so must have some very influential friends. Maybe I just need to be less pessimistic... ;)

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Putin stays in power by suppressing any semblence of democracy and free speech using measures such as legislation against protest, controlling registration of political parties, improsonment of political oppponents and murder.

Echoes of the past indeed but rather than being an ideologically driven apparatus we are effectively dealing with a legitimised mafia (with nuclear weapons). Removal by two bullets to the back of the head will be a fitting demise for the wee man.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The Russian military has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 03:00 GMT to surrender or face an assault, Ukrainian defence sources have said. - BBC News

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26424738

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Here comes the ugly phase :(

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Don't surrender. Let Russians make the assault if they want. Russia probably getting upset that Ukrainian forces haven't attacked them yet and are getting itch feet waiting for a pretext.

Hopefully this a bluff.

---------- Post added at 16:51 ---------- Previous post was at 16:40 ----------

Obama needs to do something already.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Will Usmanov do something? He has Gazprom in his hand which supplies Ukraine.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The man and his cronies have a vast fortune stashed away in off shore accounts.Whatever happens they will get to enjoy that money whilst Russia goes to rat turds.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well. We're all dead.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The soldiers in the compounds will have been talking through the fence with the Russians outside. You could see as much in the BBC's report last night.

They will have been told what's afoot, they will have been told they can stay in their compounds and keep their honour, and as long as nobody starts waving a rifle about, the Russians will break the gates down early tomorrow morning and 'deport' the soldiers to Kiev.

We are witnessing the partition of Ukraine. It won't end in Crimea but I don't believe even Putin is mad enough to take it all the way to Kiev. He wants a Russian-friendly satellite on the Black Sea because otherwise his navy is screwed. A Russian-friendly East Ukraine, or more likely a series of autonomous republics, like Crimea, will give him that. The Westerners can then get on with cosying up to the EU.

It's just good old fashioned Soviet spheres of influence, deployed by a good old fashioned Soviet who doesn't know how to do international affairs in any other way.

And, to be frank, despite being disappointed in the mad dog way he's gone about it, I can entirely see why he would want to fix things in his back yard like this.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I'm open-mouthed at the hypocrisy of our own political class, given that they were all around in 2003 and almost to a man applauded our invasion of Iraq on a far flimsier pretext than the one Mad Vlad is now using to annexe parts of Ukraine. I guess they have to be seen to be objecting but I suspect they are happy deep down to just let him get on with it.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Will Putin go to the opening ceremony of the Paralympics?

Will he get booed?

I thought he would have invaded after the paralympics.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Don't ask don't tell.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes, any suffering as a result of sanctions won't really be felt by them but by the ordinary people and he'll lay the blame squarely at the door of the EU and US.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

And, as if by magic:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26418664

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Usmanov Out!

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Also summer is coming and we're reducing our dependency on Russian energy. Russia needs to sell it, badly, so two can play at that game.

---------- Post added at 22:27 ---------- Previous post was at 22:23 ----------

He will but that doesn't mean Russians will buy it. You'll get some who'll believe it wholesale but others won't. We'll get that outside of Russia as well however, those who believe the West is bad and the East is good. Plain ol' Anti-Americanism :erm:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Don't speak too soon. Last year we had snow in April IIRC... :erm:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Don't be fooled by him, I think he might be one of the shrewdest, smartest politicians around, he runs rings around our lot anyway.

---------- Post added at 05:14 ---------- Previous post was at 05:13 ----------

Any sanctions won't be economic...

---------- Post added at 05:15 ---------- Previous post was at 05:14 ----------

What like Gideon was at our olympics, one of the best parts of the games ever imo

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ohn-kerry-kiev

https://twitter.com/shustry/status/440744432124837888

https://twitter.com/shustry/status/440755570040373248



---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 09:08 ----------

UN Russian Envoy speaks. Doesn't sound good :( : http://vimeo.com/87939821

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I can't see Putin being too fazed by any EU threats, he knows the member states will spend weeks or months arguing the toss before deciding on anything, if they can decide on anything at all that is...

Meanwhile Obama continues to talk the talk whilst failing to walk the walk. He didn't do anything much about Syria and won't do anything much about this.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...rom-all-sides/

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Of course he's not, he holds all the cards. It would be insane to start a potential war with Russia over this. Other than posturing and sanctions there's really not much can be done about it.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Just watching John Kerry pontificating. Why do so many American politicians look like Spitting Image puppets?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26547138

The trouble is that Putin believes he can get away with acting unilaterally and we're always on the back foot reacting, if you can call it that, after the event.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

This whole situation is dirty.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-pro...lition-1439035

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ton-urmas-paet

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pe...kraine-rebels/

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

In his mind it could be that the West is reaping what we sowed, he warned us against setting a precedent with Kosovo and we refused to listen

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Definately details in all of this that we are not aware of and possibly explaining the russian reaction to all this as this was not the clear cut case of good vs evil. Opposition clearly wanted yanukovich out and seem to have gone to great lengths to create resentment against him and if those snipers were working on behalf of the opposition they are not the sort we want to ally with are they ?. Either way before anymore western windbags chime in the issue of the snipers surely has to be settled because it is a rather important detail.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Ukraine has natural resources and would be a great source of cheap labour for the EU. They are of course extremely enthusiastic to get Ukraine into the bloc as quickly as possible.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Looks like it could move up a notch now :(

http://news.sky.com/story/1227970/so...rm-crimea-base

I think there will be a retaliatory indecent over this

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Anyone have any SPF 50,000,000?

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2014/03/22.png

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

:)

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It's OK - I live near Sheffield, and it's a Nuclear-Free zone....

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I dare say Salmond will pop up shortly claiming that an independent Scotland will be safe too... :D

Early days yet of course and let's pray that things don't escalate out of control but doesn't this just highlight how, when it comes to defence planning, the future's always uncertain?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Wish i had kept my old NBC suit now :D

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

What do you mean near something military, they have made the armed forces so small now they could all be housed in just one barracks :D

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Every mention of nuclear and Sheffield immediately makes me think of this movie.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

How long before Putin decides to move in to 'protect' Russian-native citizens of Eastern Ukraine? We need to enforce some sanctions that will actually stick otherwise this is going to be Russia's modus operandi for the next decade. Incite disturbance, move in to calm things, call a urgent and immediate referendum and a new member has joined the Soviet Un...I mean the Russian Federation.

Reminds me of this bit of Yes, Prime Minister: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature..._d_vMKswE#t=24

The only positive sign is that China allowed the UN Security Council to vote against Russia. It would appear that Russia is risking isolation with their antics and if that's what Putin wants then so be it. Better than having Europe dance to his dictatorial tune. It's still shameful that we were left powerless over the assassination of a dissident on British soil.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

To be fair it could be said that the west incited disturbance initially.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Only in the sense they offered the Ukraine a future which Russia opposed. This isn't incitement, theoretically it shouldn't have been Russia's choice. There is no evidence the protests were incited by the West as opposed to the incompetence and corrupted Government which they overthrew, one which had changed the constitution and tried to ban protests.

As far the EU trade deal goes then that is again a matter for the people of Ukraine and if they had rejected it there wouldn't have been armed troops marching into Kiev or war games on their borders. Either way it's not Russia's business with whom Ukraine wishes to do business.

I know it's in fashion to blame every single international incident on the ulterior motivations of the hypocritical West but there is a reason why most of the citizens on Russia's borders look towards the EU as opposed to the Russian Federation. A lot of them remember the last time and looking at how Russia have acted now it's clear that Russian Democracy is back in full flow.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

If this turned into a military incident, given the small size of the combined NATO forces it will be short and decisive. Warsaw pact 1 NATO 0 :(

Years of forced reduction to save money and appease the libs, Tanks turned into razor blades, planes and ships scraped. Nato is no longer big enough to take on the still large armed forces that faces us from across the Russian border.,

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I didn't for a moment suggest that Russia were blameless, however the reaction of the west to what occurred hasn't helped matters at all, neither has the indifference to the indiscretions of the new government.

---------- Post added at 19:44 ---------- Previous post was at 19:43 ----------

A war with Russia was never going to be won by conventional forces, the plan was always to fall back on tactical nukes as the Russians would always massively outnumber NATO.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Putin's attitude towards the West is precisely the problem, because of what he is. The fact that we are still referred to as "The West" is the problem: the concept of us and them and a complete unwillingness to participate in the international community and the democratic responsibilities that come with that participation, no doubt to ensure that his arse stays in power. Using the Party's pollution of the gene pool in the region during the previous century is not a valid excuse for his actions.

When the gas revenue starts to dry up chairman Putin will be funding his military with printed money, re-instating collective farms and turning to the West again for food aid.

Younger Russians who look back (to the times before they were born) with fondness at the once "mighty" Rodina should be careful what they wish for.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Tell me about it, i was in the forces at the hight of the cold war and i feel my grave would have been in the fulda gap after what would have been the biggest tank battle of all time. :erm:

---------- Post added at 20:02 ---------- Previous post was at 19:58 ----------

And the good old 5 year plan's

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It's not only that. By the time Nato or the EU have thrashed out something by way of a response, Putin's agents and footsoldiers are on the ground putting into practice the old expression that possession is nine tenths of the law. I don't see how we can realistically combat Putin's methodology as imposing meaningful sanctions on Russia could just make matters worse.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Think how I felt, 100 miles to the East of the West German border, surrounded by over 400,000 members of the GSFG and assorted hardware*.....;)

*not including the Ostdeutsch Tank and Motorised Rifle Divisions, PVO Strany, and Sov and Ostdeutsch Air Forces.......

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

We can't take back Crimea. Although I think Russia pretty much rigged the referendum as opponents would have been intimidated by the militia and Russians troops if they haven't left Crimea altogether already it is probably the case that the majority wish to be Russian and Ukrainian forces would meet serious resistance if they tried to retake it. Crimea is gone.

What we do need to do is send a forceful message that there are consequences to what Russia has done and they need to be serious enough so that Putin meets significant resistance within Russia should we be foolhardy enough to proceed with his new Russian union further.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I don't see what forceful message we can realistically send that will deter Putin and his cronies from this or similar acts elsewhere when it suits. Sanctions won't affect them and the Russian people are used to suffering. They'll be carefully fed an anti western diet to assuage their hunger and they'll accept it you can be sure. The fact that Putin has done what he has indicates that he doesn't think the 'west' has the appetite to take him on over such actions.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

General John Hackett disagrees re stopping them with conventional force, his book was quite scary in terms of timeline, we're lucky gorbachev got power but in his opinion after their military advance stalled in germany they'd make a last throw of the dice with a nuclear strike at a large british city like Birmingham and we'd retaliate by obliterating of all cities Kiev

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well it would have been quick for you.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Interesting; the war games I'd seen were focused around the premise of a tactical nuclear war followed by potentially a strategic one after NATO forces were overrun by Warsaw Pact forces.

---------- Post added at 22:23 ---------- Previous post was at 22:22 ----------

Same kind of story for most of us.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-minute_warning

Brr.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It was a very interesting read, chillingly plausible to, iirc he did do a version in which Germany was totally destroyed by nuclear weapons. The novel aspect of the book left a bit to be desired but as a text book it was excellent, possibly due to the amount of experts that contributed to it, the dates were almost perfect, mid eighties and the soviets are on the verge of collapse economically so launch an invasion of western Europe, France joins in and it's all over in three weeks, might have been Minsk not Kiev that was destroyed to. We are so lucky gorbachev and not someone like Putin took over then.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I'd always imagined the US cavalry would ride in to save us... :)

---------- Post added at 08:20 ---------- Previous post was at 07:56 ----------

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26641217

Last I heard they were 'laughing' at sanctions, now it seems they're worthy of 'retaliation'. I reckon a very dangerous bunch of lunatics are running the show in Russia and anything could happen. :erm:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

US Air Cav, with A10 Warthogs and Apache helicopters with Hellfire missiles - they were specifically designed to mitigate* the overwhelming Soviet tank numbers.


*mitigate - 'blow the crap out of'.....