Re: Coronavirus
 

Greece had it's first case around a month after the UK and Italy. If you have less cases being brought into a country in the first place, then less cases will result.


Although they closed schools, etc and cafes, etc, before then, their restrictions on movement only started on 22nd March, just 1/2 days before the UK.Sound familiar?


Croatia
New Zealand
Worldwide, most of the lockdowns occurred around the same time.


IMO unless the UK lockdown continues until at least the end of May, it runs the risk of running rampant again. Too many large gatherings are due to take place before the end of May.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'm on record on here, consistently from the very start, saying that the lock down would run until the end of May.

Furthermore, if the schools don't reopen on Monday 1st June, then they won't reopen until the new school year in Sept.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’m sorry but you’re obviously well aware of the glaring deficiency in your appeals to New Zealand and Greece. You can’t dismiss that with an airy wave of your hand. The differences between a great many countries in the world, and the U.K., are profound. This is one of the best connected countries on the planet and London is one of the few true global cities in the world. Greece and NZ are partly, or entirely island based but there the similarities end; the sheer depth of connectivity the U.K. has more than overcomes that similarity. Neither country is a major international transit hub and NZ in particular is thousands of miles from anywhere else of any significance. There is literally nothing we can learn from NZ on this, given the immense differences in population size, geography and movement of people in and out of the country.

I know it’s desperately fashionable to beatify Jacinda Ardern these days but frankly, she’s playing the very lucky hand she was dealt, and that’s all.

Re: Coronavirus
 

But playing it well... ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Now, for some clarity post the sentence paragraph before this sentence 'Some accused the government in Athens of not just entrusting the handling of the pandemic to scientists, but of handing over responsibility too.'

We've read the same article and I know why you missed it out.....

---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:41 ----------

I'll think you find a) i can, and b) i have.

1) If we're one of the best connected countries in the world then we should have acted quicker on inbound flights, temperature scanning, forcing people to self quarantine. Things that New Zealand did.

2) New Zealand blocked all inbound air traffic apart from repatriation flights. The UK not doing it because the virus is already circulating.

3) New Zealand, Greece locked down quickly, and hard. with more restrictions on movement.

4) New Zealand instigated mass contact tracing. The UK government abandoned it because it was 'difficult'

If you don't think that the UK government can learn from other nations then, that's a pretty immature attitude to take.


The UK did far too little, too late. We're now seeing the evidence of that played out.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The New York Times has got hold of an internal CDC presentation, that has some scary (US) forecasts.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/u...#link-7b42d0f5 That’s scary, if the projections are accurate.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Which, whilst trying to sound clever, comes across as inept.

If you think U.K. = NZ and/ or Greece is a pretty amateurish attitude to take.

Obviously speaking as someone with viral pandemic emergency planning experience? <removed>

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

She is, but I think it’s fair to say she’s playing whist whereas some other, larger, more centrally connected countries are playing bridge. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

The government have been acting on the advice of the scientists throughout. Had they not done so, you would have been the first to criticise.

Where do you think the phrase 'herd immunity' came from? The government didn't make it up. Had Labour been in government and done exactly the same things, you would be full of praise, no doubt.

Criticism is all very well when deserved, but criticism for the sake of it is not cricket, old chap.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The government may well be “acting” on the advice of the scientists, that does not necessarily mean they are doing as the scientists say. The difference is in the clever wording.

I’m not saying they’re ignoring scientists but there’s no doubt this government (as likely with any) is “following” whatever advice makes them look like they’ve been “successful”.

And now we have the highest death toll in Europe. So not really a success in my opinion.

Re: Coronavirus
 

So the absurdity of assuming that geography is irrelevant goes on.

The variables at play here are staggering in their complexity. Population size, mobility and age are major factors. The balance of the domestic economy, its manufacturing capacity and adaptability are also relevant. Whether or not you have a significant first or second generation immigrant population comes into it, as does whether any of your airports are major international hubs. What international business is done in a country and the amount of international travel that prompts, and how wealthy, in global terms, your population is, also feeding into the international travel statistics - these are also significant. And, of course, the tactics and timing deployed against the virus by the authorities. Which, tediously, seems to be the only variable anyone here wants to obsess over.

Geography, people. Get a map out and have a look. This country is literally at the middle of the fecking world. If you don't think that makes a difference, then there's no hope for any of us, because for us to rebuild our economy once this is over is going to take a lot more creative thinking and adaptability, from every last one of us, than is evident in this discussion.

:rant:

Rant over, I have an actual essay to write.

Re: Coronavirus
 

1) I know where herd immunity comes from, so no need to patronise. Interestingly the scientists were the first to say allow herd immunity and then quickly backed out of that when they saw the projected deaths for allowing that method to continue.

2) I'm not a historical labour voter or supporter, You don't know me well enough to make that assumption So, sssshhhhh

Criticisms are justified at both the scientists AND the government for the way that the pandemic has been handled in this country.

---------- Post added at 10:15 ---------- Previous post was at 10:15 ----------

Quite.

---------- Post added at 10:20 ---------- Previous post was at 10:15 ----------

So, heres the thing, Whilst what you say holds merit to a degree. The variable that you claim people are obsessing over is the only variable to which we have a degree of control.

it's therefore blatantly bloody obvious, that this is the area that will be focussed on.

Re: Coronavirus
 

New Zealand is probably not a good comparison simply because of geography. It is isolated, split into two distinct islands so controls on incoming and movement are likely easier. It is also likely that isolating self has been practised and planned for other situations so they could have mechanisms in place already to enact them.

We still have coastguard picking up people trying to get into Britain by boat so yes we can close borders and be an island but we are closer to other countries than New Zealand.

New Zealand has a total population of 4 million - less than London alone so surely contacts are more easily traced and dealt with. And how do populations behave? Did New Zealanders see the problem coming and prepare themselves BEFORE government made any pronouncements. In the UK we could see there was an issue, it was suggested we stayed at home but we saw the biggest numbers at some beauty spots recorded as if our idea of preparations was to get out and enjoy now, then hoard up and force government to bring in stricter enforcement.


We also need to take into account if NZ has mostly had the "A" form of the virus that some figures show to have a lesser impact.

---

On the issue of ethnicity and poverty in the statistics it is hard to separate out the factor as the press want to but if poorer and non-white families live in more multi-generational households whether forced to or by choice/culture that will have an impact. It is worth study and we should work to lessen poverty and the impacts of poverty but where groups choose to live larger households then infectious diseases will likely hit them more.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The Register (in amongst its standard snark and Government bashing) makes a good point about the UK's tracking app - it probably won't work.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/0...ronavirus_app/