Cable Forum - Will Scotland Leave the UK?

The Times: Labour and SNP hint at a pact to oust Johnson. Labour will not block a second referendum on Scottish independence, says shadow chancellor.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2...08%20Times.JPG

Chris

07-08-2019 00:22

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

That hinges on Labour being the largest party in a hung parliament after a general election, and there being enough SNP MPs to give them a working majority on confidence and supply issues. It’s problematic for a number of reasons. First, neither of those conditions is anywhere near certain, and second, the Scottish branch of the party absolutely hates it. They loathe the SNP, which presently occupies large numbers of seats that Scottish Labour considers its property.

OLD BOY

07-08-2019 10:10

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36005139)

That would be very short sighted of Labour. If they did that, it would have a devastating impact on the likelihood of them ever getting into power again south of the border.

Anyway if Boris gets a 'no deal' through, the opinion polls show that a Conservative Government would be elected with a good working majority, so I wouldn't take this talk very seriously, to be honest.

Hugh	07-08-2019 10:14

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Link, please, to these polls?

nashville

07-08-2019 13:35

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

According to the news Labour in Scotland would not be against another Referendum , So there goes my vote for Labour,

Chris

07-08-2019 14:35

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by nashville (Post 36005182)

According to the news Labour in Scotland would not be against another Referendum , So there goes my vote for Labour,

That’s not what I’m reading: https://order-order.com/2019/08/07/s...nell-indyref2/

“Scottish Labour Leader Richard Leonard held what will have been a fairly robust meeting with the Shadow Chancellor this morning, issuing a statement:

I made clear to him that a second independence referendum is unwanted by the people of Scotland and it is unnecessary… The 2014 referendum was a once in a generation vote.
Scottish MPs and MSPs have since piled in. Ian Murray MP led a blistering attack on McDonnell, saying:

“These are utterly irresponsible comments from John McDonnell that betray our party’s values… McDonnell has even bought into the nationalist narrative that Westminster is an ‘English Parliament’, in an insult to the hard work carried out by Scottish MPs from every party.”

nashville

07-08-2019 14:51

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Yes I heard what Richard said on the news, Thank goodness for his comments

Chris

07-08-2019 15:09

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Vote to get the Nat out, whenever the election comes. If Labour is in second place and previously held your seat, vote for them. Happily my local MP is already a Tory so I just have to keep supporting him.

denphone

07-08-2019 16:39

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36005153)

Link, please, to these polls?

These are the latest opinion poll showings.

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Hugh	07-08-2019 17:23

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36005224)

These are the latest opinion poll showings.

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Thanks - I can't find one that supports

Quote:

if Boris gets a 'no deal' through, the opinion polls show that a Conservative Government would be elected with a good working majority

Those show neck and neck results (Con v Lab, and LibDems v Brexit).

denphone

07-08-2019 17:32

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

My hunch if we do have a general election which seems to be a near enough certainly is we are highly likely to be in hung parliament territory again no deal or not as there are many who are unhappy in regards to the political stances currently taken by both major parties and l can also see a lot of tactical voting as well..

Damien

07-08-2019 17:32

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

They would probably be 'what if' polls that don't get included in poll trackers as they aren't asking the same question and are contingent on different scenarios actually happening, plus they're treated with a greater degree of scepticism because they ask people to imagine how they would feel later rather than what they're feeling now.

The standard poll tracking/general election questions always ask: How you vote if there was a General Election today.

I think the whole 'Tories win in a No Deal scenario' assumes no negative consequences for which the voters blame the Government. If we have a recession, if we have problems around logistics, if people feel less economically secure then that might hurt the Tories. I would imagine the Brexit Party would try to capitalise on it too saying they 'made a mess' of Brexit.

jfman

07-08-2019 19:19

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36005072)

Polls like this come around from time to time and have done so for many years. Boris-Brexit may be the pretext for this one but it hasn’t been for any of the past ones and won’t be in future. The vast, vast majority of polls, taken over many years, are no, no and no.

Scottish politics can be quite nuanced and is frequently misunderstood by those who do not follow it closely (and that is quite hard to do without living here).

Pollsters frequently pick issues which they know will enrage sufficient numbers of Scottish voters and run an independence poll in the immediate aftermath. An upswing in support for independence always makes good headlines, especially during the summer silly season when little else is happening.

But the underlying sentiment hasn’t changed. When people are confronted with the actual issues and severe difficulties of independence, rather than the latest Tory bogeyman, then a comfortable majority of them remain supportive of the union.

You only need to win the right poll, once, and that's it for ALL ETERNITY. ;)

Chris

07-08-2019 19:41

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

True - but we won the right poll in 2014. And Alex and Nicola helpfully, at the time, not only described it as a “once in a generation “ event but also willingly participated in a process which acknowledged Westminster’s continuing supremacy in constitutional issues. So they can whinge all they like but they can’t have another one without permission.

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