Cable Forum - UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

Whatever someone's views might be on ECHR & ECJ, fisheries, whether EU is being fair, whether UK-EU relationship is a special case, whether LPF conditions are appropriate, whether Canada should be/is available etc, political reality = deal only if EU's preconditions will be met.

https://twitter.com/FabianZuleeg/sta...94431482560514

I don't see trade deals with the US and China being at all likely at the moment so even less wriggle room for the UK.

jonbxx

01-05-2020 15:41

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36033521)

Interesting Tweet from Fabian Zuleeg, Chief Executive & Chief Economist, European Policy Centre

https://twitter.com/FabianZuleeg/sta...94431482560514

I don't see trade deals with the US and China being at all likely at the moment so even less wriggle room for the UK.

Strange he should reference ECHR as that's nothing to do with the EU

Chris

01-05-2020 16:10

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36033521)

Quite.

Quote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Policy_Centre

The European Policy Centre (EPC) is a Brussels-based not-for-profit think tank on European Union affairs, founded in 1997.

Herman Van Rompuy is President of the European Policy Centre and chairs its Advisory Council, which includes many prominent EU figures

Van Rompuy was the first permanently appointed president of the European Council. He served in that role from 2009-2014. Nigel Farage famously told him, “You have the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low grade bank clerk.”

So it’s not a place I’d go looking for impartial observations about the U.K.-EU negotiations. Or on anything to do with the EU for that matter.

OLD BOY

02-05-2020 16:52

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

So, trade talks with the US will start next week as the negotiations with Brussels have stalled. At this rate, we will conclude discussions with the States before the EU, which would be an incredible result.

Maybe this will make the EU sit up and take notice at last. Sooner or later, it will dawn on them that we are serious in wanting a trade deal free of the restrictions they are trying to impose on us.

This also shows the naysayers on the forum that negotiations can continue notwithstanding the resources we are throwing into the containment of Covid-19.

jfman

02-05-2020 17:24

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36033637)

I admire your optimism Old Boy. It took from negotiations concluding in 2006 until 2012 for a trade deal between the United States and Panama to come into effect.

There's no evidence for your statement starting "at this rate..." at all.

I'm 100% confident that the UK can "start negotiations" over anything it pleases during Covid-19 given the loosest possible definition would constitute one junior Civil Servant on a Zoom call.

Hugh	02-05-2020 17:46

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36033637)

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUKKBN22D69H

Quote:

"Both countries are committed to starting trade negotiations as soon as possible to reach a comprehensive free trade agreement in these unprecedented times,” a spokeswoman for Britain’s Department for International Trade said, but declined to confirm the timeline in The Sun report.

btw, I’m sure this comment in the Sun article will go down well with The Donald...

Quote:

Donald Trump is desperate to do a deal by the Autumn ahead of the November presidential election

Sephiroth

09-05-2020 20:29

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

"A longer Brexit transition is pointless, dangerous, and plays straight into Mr Barnier’s hands"

So opines Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Torygraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...lays-straight/

Some important extracts from this first rate article:

Quote:

The EU’s “future arrangements” proposal is not a trade deal at all. It is an attempt to lock the UK into its legal structure under the ECJ. Michel Barnier insists that the UK must swallow the acquis on competition, state aid, labour, and the environment – and future acquis through “dynamic alignment” – demanding “level playing-field’ clauses of a character quite different from normal FTAs.

In other words, the EU is still refusing to treat Britain as an independent sovereign state. Since our proposal is not so far removed from an “Australian” or WTO settlement that Europe cannot deny, it would be craven to accept these terms.

Quote:

The EU is trying to impose terms appropriate only for a country defeated in war. My presumption is that it cannot take the diplomatic and economic risk of pushing this ideological agenda much further.

The article points out that during the transition period the UK must obey EU law and during any extension must continue to make payments to the EU. It asks to what extent the UK would be sucked into paying more as a result of the 2021-2027 budget (albeit we're not part of that). Ambrose E-P says an extension is exactly what the EU wants because of the money and a degree of trading stability in difficult times.

For what my opinion is worth, the Guvmin would not negotiate an extension that led to us paying more than we would in any previous year.

But it would be very dangerous to seek an extension - it prevents us from doing trade deals elsewhere and jeeps us where the EU wants.

OLD BOY

09-05-2020 20:41

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36034460)

[COLOR="Blue"]
"A longer Brexit transition is pointless, dangerous, and plays straight into Mr Barnier’s hands"

So opines Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Torygraph.

Yes, and if Barnier does any more of his clock impressions, he can take a running jump!

---------- Post added at 20:41 ---------- Previous post was at 20:39 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36034460)

The article points out that during the transition period the UK must obey EU law and during any extension must continue to make payments to the EU. It asks to what extent the UK would be sucked into paying more as a result of the 2021-2027 budget (albeit we're not part of that). Ambrose E-P says an extension is exactly what the EU wants because of the money and a degree of trading stability in difficult times.

Fat chance.

1andrew1

09-05-2020 21:23

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36034460)

Ambrose E-P says an extension is exactly what the EU wants because of the money and a degree of trading stability in difficult times.
For what my opinion is worth, the Guvmin would not negotiate an extension that led to us paying more than we would in any previous year.
But it would be very dangerous to seek an extension - it prevents us from doing trade deals elsewhere and jeeps us where the EU wants.

We would need to be careful on what we paid but trading stability is something that the UK needs at a time when Coronavirus is impacting a lot of the World. If we are currently allowed to negotiate a trade deal with the US then obviously we can continue to do trade deals elsewhere.

Sephiroth

09-05-2020 23:41

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36034471)

On your second sentence, what I meant was executing trade with the USA and others.

Your first sentence is the nub of the matter. Economics vs sovereignty.

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