Cable Forum - Coronavirus (OLD)

It'a quite legal to restrict exports of medicines. The UK holds a list of medicines that cannot be exported that is updated weekly.

Here's what the law says;

Quote:

The licence holder must ensure, within the limits of the holder’s responsibility, the continued supply of medicinal products to pharmacies, and other persons who may lawfully sell medicinal products by retail or supply them in circumstances corresponding to retail sale, so that the needs of patients in the United Kingdom are met.

(Regulation 43(2) of the Human Medicines Regulations 2012)

Things might only get sticky if countries either refuse to export to certain countries without a reason (trade sanctions for example) of they are hoarding beyond what s necessary to ensure public health.

We had a good call today on manufacturing capacity. Pharmaceutical companies tend to work at as close to 100% utilisation as possible. There is very little floor space and manufacturing equipment spare. To build new plant from nothing can take years. Even building a prefab plant takes a minimum of 18 months. It looks like, at least in the short term, that existing plant will need to repurposed for vaccine production. What plant and where will depend very much on what vaccine(s) work well.

If this is done, there will be shortages of other drugs which could have health implications elsewhere. As well as health implications, there could be lost sales implications for pharma companies and those costs might well be factored in to a vaccine cost at least in western economies. This is on top of development costs ($200-500m)

Russ	01-05-2020 12:37

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36033506)

It'a quite legal to restrict exports of medicines.

I don't think anyone is disputing that.

tweetiepooh

01-05-2020 12:38

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36033505)

Oxford should release the formula/spec (whatever it is for a vaccine) to everyone so that every capable factory can make it at scale. No need for U.K production capacity to be used for anyone else but the U.K.

It would be important to beat the Americans to it in that case if their plan is to withhold both the work behind the vaccine rather than simply any vaccines created. There is a moral duty for whichever research team finds the successful one to tell everyone else how they did it, it's contemptible for Trump to withhold it.

This I would agree with. This is a global issue and we need to help out each other. This is a good test - the Bible continually says that we ignore the poor to our detriment and some of the poorest are not in the West. A vaccine that can be sent worldwide and help especially those nations that do not have the healthcare we do would be good to do and likely to our benefit. Both with God's blessing but because those countries we do help will remember it.

Hugh	01-05-2020 12:57

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36033501)

Yes but, no but, yes but.

Thank you for that clarification - your wit is matched by your coherence.

Just to be clear, the USA Defense Production Act allows the US Government to to allocate materials, services and facilities to promote national defense; it also authorizes the president to control the civilian economy so that scarce and critical materials necessary to the national defense effort are available for defense needs - I'm pretty sure that data that could be used to create a vaccine comes under that heading, and the data from your effort is being managed in the USA.

pip08456

01-05-2020 14:20

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36033513)

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Spreading the knowledge, Opensource

When we are done with our analysis we upload the data here:

We also make all data publicly available, so that other people working in the field can check our analysis and anyone with new methods (e.g. the always growing machine learning data analysis) can look at them at any time: https://osf.io/2h6p4/wiki/home/ and https://osf.io/dp4cb/wiki/home/

We are also collaborating with other labs and groups outside the Foldingathome Consortium to solve COVID-19 asap.

Paul	01-05-2020 15:21

Re: Coronavirus

Given how long it takes to develop a vaccine, there is a chance Trump will no longer be in power to stop anything.

Pierre

01-05-2020 16:30

Re: Coronavirus

You can't catch it twice.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...twice-11981721

daveeb

01-05-2020 17:13

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36033528)

You can't catch it twice.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...twice-11981721

You probably can't catch it twice within a month or two. We have no idea yet what happens 6 months or a year down the line. Any immunity may be temporary.

Taf	01-05-2020 17:19

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36033528)

You can't catch it twice.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...twice-11981721

But what if "it" has mutated?

Hugh	01-05-2020 17:21

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveeb (Post 36033529)

You probably can't catch it twice within a month or two. We have no idea yet what happens 6 months or a year down the line. Any immunity may be temporary.

I posted this a couple of days ago, which gives more detail.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/126675...ns-experts-say

Quote:

Tests in recovered patients in S. Korea found false positives, not reinfections, experts say

SEOUL — South Korea’s infectious disease experts said Thursday that dead virus fragments were the likely cause of over 260 people here testing positive again for the novel coronavirus days and even weeks after marking full recoveries.

Oh Myoung-don, who leads the central clinical committee for emerging disease control, said the committee members found little reason to believe that those cases could be COVID-19 reinfections or reactivations, which would have made global efforts to contain the virus much more daunting.

The tests detected the ribonucleic acid of the dead virus,” said Oh, a Seoul National University hospital doctor, at a press conference Thursday held at the National Medical Center.

He went on to explain that in PCR tests, or polymerase chain reaction tests, used for COVID-19 diagnosis, genetic materials of the virus amplify during testing, whether it is from a live virus or just from fragments of dead virus cells that can take months to clear from recovered patients.

The PCR tests cannot distinguish whether the virus is alive or dead, he added, and this can lead to false positives.

“PCR testing that amplifies genetics of the virus is used in Korea to test COVID-19, and relapse cases are due to technical limits of the PCR testing.”

Pierre

01-05-2020 17:26

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveeb (Post 36033529)

You probably can't catch it twice within a month or two. We have no idea yet what happens 6 months or a year down the line. Any immunity may be temporary.

<removed>

Let’s deal with the facts and not idle speculation.

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Researchers at the South Korean centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) now say it is impossible for the COVID-19 virus to reactivate in human bodies.

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This prompted concerns that the virus could be mutating so quickly that people were not necessarily immune to catching it again. genetic analyses of the virus have not found any substantial changes which would effectively disguise it from the immune system.

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In an update to its guidance, the WHO warned there was "no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection".

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36033531)

But what if "it" has mutated?

Read the article?

Hugh	01-05-2020 17:33

Re: Coronavirus

Can we debate the points raised, please, and not make personal attacks on posters.

Edit: To add to this. Anyone doing so risks a 7 day ban from the topic. [Paul]

pip08456

01-05-2020 18:13

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36033531)

But what if "it" has mutated?

It already has mutated.

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Researchers who looked into the original outbreak of the virus have discovered the new variants throughout the world.

The three variants, labelled A, B and C, are distinct but still closely related.

Variant A is the type most like the strain at the root of the outbreak – the type found in bats and pangolins.

The B strain is derived from A, separated by two mutations, and C is in then a ‘daughter’ of B, the research suggests.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/11/coron...-far-12542619/

Pierre

01-05-2020 18:14

Re: Coronavirus

But importantly

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genetic analyses of the virus have not found any substantial changes which would effectively disguise it from the immune system.

pip08456

01-05-2020 18:29

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36033541)