Cable Forum - Britain outside the EU

It doesn’t help that OB prefers to talk in absolutes and has trouble with shades of grey. However, Ballantyne is all over the BBC today blaming covid for interrupting the normal smooth movement of containers around the world and not blaming Brexit at all.

There is of course a difference between “nothing to do with” and “contributing factor”, however within the phrase “contributing factor” is a whole range of meanings. It seems to me that last summer, and up to the last few weeks in fact, it has been the (IMO fairly lazy) cop out to simply name-check Brexit, because plenty of people said this *would* happen and too few journalists have been prepared to actually check if it *is* happening, despite the rather obvious alternative explanation. Time and time again we have seen the figure of 100,000 too few lorry drivers in the UK, but only recently did anyone start actually doing the maths and asking whether it’s fair to name Brexit at, or in fact anywhere near the top, of the list of contributing factors when the Road Haulage Association’s most pessimistic estimate is that only 20% of those vacancies were caused by EU drivers returning home (and in fact, even a proportion of those drivers left because of the pandemic rather than Brexit).

Brexit is clearly a contributing factor in the shortage of lorry drivers we are currently experiencing, however based on the most recent reports it seems quite unreasonable to name it near the top of that list.

Totally agree. It seems that people will say either Brexit 100% or 0% the cause of the issues where it is somewhere in between. Where the end of freedom of movement does impact things is the resilience to dynamic situations. If there is a Europe wide shortage of drivers, all the countries are basically competing for the same pool of existing drivers for today along with training up drivers for the future. The end of freedom of movement puts the UK at a competitive disadvantage against countries attracting drivers with no restrictions, paperwork, costs, etc.

Yes, we can outbid other countries purely on pay but that has an impact in inflation if productivity stays the same. Trucks can only carry so much goods so the only options to increase productivity would be to suck up the additional costs or increase productivity through more hours per driver

OLD BOY

13-10-2021 17:16

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36097274)

I acknowledge, of course, that Brexit has had an impact. However, the queue of container ships would have been there with or without Brexit. It’s more to do with the relaxation of Covid restrictions bringing everything back to life all at once. Container ships are in the wrong place and there is a worldwide shortage of lorry drivers.

TheDaddy

13-10-2021 17:22

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36097280)

Oh of course you acknowledge it, silly everyone for not realising that when you said

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Some people are pointing to the container ships waiting to get into British ports being due to Brexit. However, the problem is worldwide and clearly nothing to do with Brexit

OLD BOY

13-10-2021 17:27

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36097284)

Oh of course you acknowledge it, silly everyone for not realising that when you said

The point I was making was that we would still have been in this position had we remained inside the EU.

pip08456

13-10-2021 18:53

Re: Britain outside the EU

Another interesting take on the NI Protocol from The Spectator.

Quote:

It is fair to also highlight that the EU is far from blameless. It wrongly asserts, quite often, that it can sue the UK. It itself violated the rule of law when it was upset about having poorly implemented its vaccine programme.

Now that we’ve left, does any of this matter to us? I think it does. In between Christmas and New Year, I read the EU/UK treaty, as you do. Being a melodramatic fellow, I distinctly remember getting to page 356 and saying out loud, ‘oh, that’s curious’.

On page 356 you find Article LAW.OTHER.137: Suspension. The article numbering is irritating even to lawyers. But what this article says is:

“‘In the event of serious and systemic deficiencies within one Party as regards the protection of fundamental rights or the principle of the rule of law, the other Party may suspend this Part or Titles thereof, by written notification through diplomatic channels. Such notification shall specify the serious and systemic deficiencies on which the suspension is based.’

This is why we are involved. This particular chunk of the Brexit deal can be suspended in the event of ‘serious and systemic deficiencies’ in the EU that harm the rule of law. With both Poland and Germany now in open defiance against the EU legal framework, the rule of law crisis in the EU is now both serious and systemic. And even if the EU is right and Poland wrong, it’s still a serious rule of law breach.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...he-brexit-deal

Sephiroth

13-10-2021 22:20

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36097308)

Another interesting take on the NI Protocol from The Spectator.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...he-brexit-deal

It's Article 693 of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
Not the Withdrawal Agreement.

So, how can the UK utilise what you've pointed out in terms of the NI Protocol?

---------- Post added at 22:20 ---------- Previous post was at 22:07 ----------

That perfidious Varadkar is at it again, forcefully telling the world that by making a trade deal with the UK other countries are treating with a nation that cannot be trusted to keep to the deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58898117

Is the Tanasty the enemy or what? He'll be the Irish Teashop in January 2023 when he gets his stint.

I can see the two particular Remainers mulling over whether or not to say he's right because the UK government is not keeping to its international obligations in respect of Brexit agreements.

Chris

13-10-2021 22:45

Re: Britain outside the EU

I heard Varadkar on the radio this afternoon. He really is a spiteful little man. He is, however, at least being consistent. He’s a massive Anglophobe with a chip on his shoulder, and always has been. On the plus side, he’s the deputy leader of a small backwater on the edge of Europe, and by the time he gets back into whatever they call the place the Irish prime minister lives, we will be far beyond the phase in this drama where he’s the EU’s useful idiot, giving them an excuse to use the peace process to keep the UK shackled to single market rules.

The reason he’s been doing the media rounds today is that his pet narrative, that the UK is a bad actor in treaty negotiations, has been challenged by Frost’s claim that it’s the EU that’s been acting disreputably, by making unreasonable linkage between unconnected aspects of the UK/EU relationship. That he felt he had to speak in such direct and unfriendly terms does however betray how powerless he feels. Note his focus is on trying to poison the well as the UK discusses trade partnerships with third parties, rather than confining himself to matters within his purview.

OLD BOY

13-10-2021 23:14

Re: Britain outside the EU

He should be more careful. If we give up on the EU deal, the Republic of Ireland will not come out of it well.

Hugh	13-10-2021 23:37

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36097330)

He should be more careful. If we give up on the EU deal, the Republic of Ireland will not come out of it well.

In what way?

OLD BOY

14-10-2021 07:50

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36097335)

In what way?

The Irish Republic is heavily dependent on trade with the UK.

If, for example, the UK decided to pursue a policy of cheap agricultural imports from third countries, this alone would have a damaging impact on the Irish Republic.

mrmistoffelees

14-10-2021 10:02

Re: Britain outside the EU

Meanwhile.....

https://news.sky.com/story/pig-cull-...ghter-12433407

If it's as successful as the HGV recruitment we will get perhaps 20?

1andrew1

14-10-2021 10:07

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36097343)

The deals the UK and EU have signed with New Zealand will eventually bring cheaper meat into the British & Irish isles which will impact agriculture in both islands.

Other than that, I don't think any other agricultural deals are on the horizon. Any deals the UK strikes need to be balanced against the impact on its own agricultural sector.

Hugh	14-10-2021 10:13

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36097343)

Swings/roundabouts - we usually have a trade surplus with Ireland, so we would be cutting off our nose to spite our face…

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-8173/

Quote:

In 2019, UK exports to Ireland were worth £40.0 billion; imports from Ireland were £30.0 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of £10.0 billion.

The UK had a surplus with Ireland in both goods and services.

Ireland accounted for 5.8% of UK exports and 4.2% of all UK imports.

Ireland was the UK’s 5th largest export market and the 7th largest source of imports.

The UK recorded a trade surplus with Ireland every year between 1999 and 2019.

What "third countries" would replace the Irish agricultural goods?

Carth

14-10-2021 10:31

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36097351)

Meanwhile.....

https://news.sky.com/story/pig-cull-...ghter-12433407

If it's as successful as the HGV recruitment we will get perhaps 20?

from that link

Quote:

The shortage of butchers affects around 1,400 farms that supply 90% of British pork through contracts with major processors.

Supermarkets are the root cause, deals & contracts done with 'suppliers' at terms which are very close to make or break for them, meaning the wages offered by the suppliers to their workers are as low as they can get them . . recruitment problem right there.

Anyone remember a few years ago, dairy farmers saying it was cheaper for them to pour milk down the drain than sell it to supermarkets at the prices they were willing to pay?

Look around your local area, are the smaller butchers struggling? I bet they're not.

mrmistoffelees

14-10-2021 10:43

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36097356)

from that link

Supermarkets are the root cause, deals & contracts done with 'suppliers' at terms which are very close to make or break for them, meaning the wages offered by the suppliers to their workers are as low as they can get them . . recruitment problem right there.

Anyone remember a few years ago, dairy farmers saying it was cheaper for them to pour milk down the drain than sell it to supermarkets at the prices they were willing to pay?

Look around your local area, are the smaller butchers struggling? I bet they're not.

From that same article, the approx salary is 25k now, granted that's under the average UK salary by approx £1.2k based on Q1 2021 numbers. However, there's a lot of people who would like to earn that salary but don't get anywhere near.

Smaller butchers can't supply a population of 68 odd million, well, they could but then they wouldn't be smaller butchers for very long.

Large populations in the most part require complex supply chains, furthermore, the answer can't be to pay everyone more as everyone knows where that will lead us.

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