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I think the vaxs and booster will make the difference from last year - I don’t think anything will change (drastically) before Christmas, because if there is any rise in hospitalisations/deaths due to Omicron, it will take a couple of weeks to get to a noticeable rise (if it happens).

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36104520)

They’ve always taken that stance and consistently proven wrong so I’d not put too much weight into their intentions. There’s a number of cases that’s going to be a breaking point, the question is whether this variant is enough to push it there.

The breaking point won’t be cases it will be the number of hospitalisations/deaths that triggers.

We’re on for an ‘interesting’ few weeks whilst the formal data comes in, anything at the moment is pretty much anecdotal.

Right now imho we should have wfh where possible introduced asap

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36104523)

Anything largely comes into the "suspected but not known" or "not enough data to prove" category at the moment as this variant has been only known for a couple of weeks.

Now, chances are this was around much longer. It may well be that a fair amount have had colds or something and just dismissed it as such when actually that was covid.

Dr Fauci has I believe joined the "it's a milder illness than the other variants" camp today, but that surely isn't known yet, given that it takes a week or two to see the effect on hospitalisations.

I really don't think it will be this month we will know on that count in any real detail, by which point vaccinating adults with 3rd doses should be much more under way, schools will have been off, I think a lot will put their own breaks on Christmas mixing, a lot will choose to work from home, which will reduce the numbers of contacts people have, and it's little surprising that those are two of the places where transmission of any virus is high.

Let's also not forget as JVT and others have recently said any vaccine escape is going to be partial not complete, is still likely to protect against severe disease, and is likely to be increased the more vaccines you have. There is no suggestion that there will be total escape from Omicron and the vaccines were never designed to stop people getting covid.

And let's be fair a lot of what was said here (more transmissible, more people getting it, vaccine escape) was said about Delta too. And there were various estimates initially which did fluctuate as to how bad that was, and it turned out the vaccines largely still worked.

If hospital admissions do stay down, then it's likely this will just blow over, and that's where the Government have always really thought with restrictions. Cases can be misleading, even the PCR test inventor said that it doesn't detect whether someone is infectious, it just shows that the sample had the same sample they are looking for from the virus. And even with the way we measure hospital admissions it doesn't necessarily include just people who have presented with a severe covid infection, it could be someone who broke their arm playing football and registered a +ve covid test on arrival without any covid related issues, or not serious ones. From what I saw the other day that seems to be the issue in Gauteng too.

So it's important not to draw too many conclusions at this stage, and not to assume that it will either be OK or the end of the world or probably any stance in between. You can be sure that the scientists who matter are looking at it.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36104523)

Right now imho we should have wfh where possible introduced asap

I would have done that way before masks in shops.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36104523)

They follow each other in the long run and deep down they know that.

The school holidays has the difference of mitigating the economic impact and providing a natural point for a circuit breaker. Worst case scenario they overegg it by accident, ease pressure on the NHS and roll out a few million boosters.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36104527)

Why are you so sure that the vaccinations won’t work? Do you have any evidence for this inexplicable view?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36104531)

Why are you so sure that the vaccinations won’t work? Do you have any evidence for this inexplicable view?

There’s nothing inexplicable about it, OB.

Why do you think the rush to boost and extend eligibility? The JCVI didn’t need 3 months to make a decision on that one.

These aren’t chance actions - they are conscious choices based on the analysis of the emerging data available. The data already supported waning efficacy vs Delta. Omicron has mutations linked to vaccine escape in both Beta and (I think) Gamma. Vaccine manufacturers themselves acknowledge this the question is just how much.

Bear in mind Delta knocked a chunk off of the vaccine efficacy vs Delta. What would be inexplicable is to assume that Omicron wouldn’t even if there was no scientific data that it does.

There’s no reason to sit back, do nothing and hope for the best. The question marks are what to do, and when.

If you genuinely believe there’s nothing in this, and this time believe that the Government will push through regardless despite scientific advice and do nothing, then I’m happy to leave it there rather than go around in circles because we won’t agree.

We are reaching a point where people are sick and tired of restrictions and are actively not complying this has been going on for so long fatigue is settling in restrictions are not a realistic option for much longer unless increased social unrest is the goal. As we've learnt to live with flu so we will have to live with covid which isn't the mass killer some would have us believe. Dealing with the other aspects of covid won't be so easy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnoopZ (Post 36104514)

Happy News from me........

On 12th of November both my parents tested positive for Covid my Mum recovered after a few weeks but my Father's Oxygen levels were low so an Ambulance was called, after 1hr lying in the Ambulance queue outside A&E he was eventually off-loaded, but then spent a further 3hrs waiting to get a bed.

As if catching Covid wasn't enough for a 79 year old with very little immune system he was also diagnosed with Pneumonia and Sepsis!

He was put on Oxygen and Antibiotic, it got to the point where he was struggling to breath and I generally thought I wouldn't see him again!

But with the odds stacked against him he has recovered enough for him to be taken off Oxygen, he's still weak and needs help walking as his lungs need to recover from the pneumonia but he has now been sent home and I have just had a 17min video chat with him and from what I see of his face and the way he was talking so confidently looks so happy.

He had been double vaccinated and boostered but was told he would have been in ICU if he hadn't of been or worse.

Big smile again from me.

Good news on this thread for a change :tu:

I had my Moderna booster earlier.

You can't really have a variant for something that's never been isolated , but you can have a test PCR at 45 cycles will turn pure water into some false positives

https://odysee.com/@katie.su:7/kateinterviewsstefan3:a

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3.pdf

This is the original paper on the discovery of the new 'virus ' it simply describes aligning short sequences of RNA to look like a longer one

Data processing and identification of the viral agent
Sequencing reads were first adaptor and quality trimmed using the
Trimmomatic program32. The remaining 56,565,928 reads were assembled de novo using both Megahit (v.1.1.3)9
and Trinity (v.2.5.1)33 with
default parameter settings. Megahit generated a total of 384,096 assembled contigs (size range of 200–30,474 nt), whereas Trinity generated
1,329,960 contigs with a size range of 201–11,760 nt.

Trinity results debunk the whole thing

Spike protein was invented not seen

Analysis of the RBD domain of the spike protein of WHCV
An amino acid sequence alignment of RBD sequences from WHCV,
SARS-CoVs and bat SARS-like CoVs was performed using MUSCLE41.
The predicted protein structures of the RBD of the spike protein were
estimated based on target–template alignment using ProMod3
the longest
(30,474 nucleotides (nt)) had a high abundance and was closely related
to a bat SARS-like coronavirus (CoV) isolate—bat SL-CoVZC45 (GenBank
accession number MG772933)—that had previously been sampled in
China, with a nucleotide identity of 89.1%

The bat coronavirus was also insilico ( invented on a computer from short sequences ) and was 89% similar to the reconstructed short sequences found in lung fluid , this is about as similar from a human to a cat .

The main thing missing from all of these papers are control experiments , none of them are scientific.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDDD (Post 36104556)

Anyone got a translation for this?

put a tin foil hat on, it will all make sense

At a guess - Covid was invented in a China lab, put into bats that have propensity for SARS-like coronavirus and the bats released into the wild. They were caught and put into the Wuhan wet market .....

Or summat!

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36104558)

Anyone got a translation for this?

LOL (Im no wiser either btw) :)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SnoopZ (Post 36104550)

I had my Moderna booster earlier.

You are now the only person I know who has had Moderna.

What it really said

Quote:

This outbreak highlights the ongoing ability of viral spill-over from animals to cause severe disease in humans

Quote:

These genomic and clinical similarities to SARS, as well as its high abundance in clinical samples, provides evidence for an associa- tion between WHCV and the ongoing outbreak of respiratory disease in Wuhan and across the world. Although the isolation of the virus from only a single patient is not sufficient to conclude that it caused these respiratory symptoms, our findings have been independently corroborated in further patients in a separate study.

The identification of multiple SARS-like CoVs in bats have led to the idea that these animals act as hosts of a natural reservoir of these viruses . Although SARS-like viruses have been identified widely in bats in China, viruses identical to SARS-CoV have not yet been docu- mented. Notably, WHCV is most closely related to bat coronaviruses, and shows 100% amino acid similarity to bat SL-CoVZC45 in the nsp7 and E proteins (Supplementary Table 3). Thus, these data suggest that bats are a possible host for the viral reservoir of WHCV. However, as a variety of animal species were for sale in the market when the disease was first reported, further studies are needed to determine the natural reservoir and any intermediate hosts of WHCV.
Note added in proof: Since this paper was accepted, the ICTV has designated the virus as SARS-CoV-230; in addition, the WHO has released the official name of the disease caused by this virus, which is COVID-19.

---------- Post added at 23:08 ---------- Previous post was at 23:08 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36104561)

LOL (Im no wiser either btw) :)

---------- Post added at 23:02 ---------- Previous post was at 23:01 ----------

You are now the only person I know who has had Moderna.

My wife and I had it as a booster.