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-   -   Will Scotland Leave the UK? (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33684496)

Hugh 17-08-2014 12:14
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35722443)
Freudian slip I reckon... ;)
Caught out...

I just wanted another passport.... :D

Osem 17-08-2014 12:16
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35722445)
Caught out...

I just wanted another passport.... :D
Apparently Salmond wants to keep the UK passport as well as Sterling. :D

bubblegun 17-08-2014 12:22
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35358486)
Scotland will not vote to split from England. Poll after poll after poll has shown that the settled will of the Scottish people is to remain in political union. Alex Salmond has a very good reason for delaying his referendum until 2014 - delaying it as long as possible is the only means he has of delivering the SNP's long-term pledge of a referendum whilst desperately hoping that something, anything, will transpire to turn public opinion around. He will also hope to complete a full five-year term in office having not spent four years of it being accused of having no legitimacy, the likely consequence of a referendum having been held and lost some time last year. Furthermore he will want to carve out a reputation for the SNP as a viable, alternative centre-left Government for Scotland so, having lost a referendum on independence in 2014 he can still go to the country in 2015 and ask for a third term as First Minister.

The electoral rules that return MSPs to Holyrood were designed to prevent the SNP from ever getting an outright majority. To an extent this suited Salmond perfectly as he is a pragmatist and a gradualist when it comes to achieving a split from the Union. He knows that the time is not now, and being able to blame a Parliament he did not control for denying him a referendum bill was very convenient. Only in the last stages of the 2010 election campaign, when an outright win for the SNP began to look possible, did the SNP start rolling back it's referendum commitment as far as it possibly could (that being a delay, not a cancellation).

It is not properly appreciated south of the Border that the SNP won the election despite their separatist agenda, not because of it. They are the only effective opposition to Labour in Scotland and the overwhelming desire on the part of Scottish voters in 2010 was to get Labour out of power in Holyrood.

---------- Post added at 13:57 ---------- Previous post was at 13:53 ----------

Useful analysis in this morning's Torygraph by Labour's Douglas Alexander:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...sh-people.html
I know this is an old post, but a Yes for Independence is NOT a vote for the SNP. I wouldn't imagine they would win in an independent Scotland . An "old-Labour" type party would be in government given the historic voting results.

Stephen 17-08-2014 13:23
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bubblegun (Post 35722449)
I know this is an old post, but a Yes for Independence is NOT a vote for the SNP. I wouldn't imagine they would win in an independent Scotland . An "old-Labour" type party would be in government given the historic voting results.
But it IS a vote for the SNP.

Without them there wouldn't be a bloody referendum.

Damien 17-08-2014 15:32
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35722405)
The Undecideds are starting to decide and the polls, which have always had trouble working out how to weight for these, are all over the place.

As Derek pointed out, of the remaining undecideds, they are 2:1 in favour of No, which is what you would expect, No being Status Quo, which typically picks up in the last days of a constitutional campaign. The "excluding don't knows" headline figure effectively attributes the undecided votes 50:50 to each side, so in this case that 55:45 result is very flattering to Yes.

I still think we are heading for a No victory by 60:40 or better.
Still better not get complacent. It's not over until the fat man concedes.

Mr Pharmacist 17-08-2014 15:49
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35722441)
Ooops!

fixed now - thanks.
If you'd posted that on Twitter the yes voters would have re-tweeted it a few thousand times by now, claiming victory already....:D

Osem 17-08-2014 18:17
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I have a feeling there'll be little magnanimity displayed by Bravemouth if he doesn't get his way. It'll be yet another episode of his favourite soap - "Brave Scots beaten down by the evil English"...

Damien 18-08-2014 08:37
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
YouGov has Yes up 4 points as well.

Derek 18-08-2014 09:46
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35722662)
YouGov has Yes up 4 points as well.
What poll is that?

Damien 18-08-2014 09:59
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35722672)
What poll is that?
The Times/YouGov

Derek 18-08-2014 10:05
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Hmmm, still a large enough lead but the biggest enemy is complacency. A few narrow polls might just be best to ensure every NO voter gets out and doesn't assume the yes camp has folded.

TheDaddy 18-08-2014 15:17
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35722679)
Hmmm, still a large enough lead but the biggest enemy is complacency. A few narrow polls might just be best to ensure every NO voter gets out and doesn't assume the yes camp has folded.
Scaremonger, it's in the bag, my advice to every no voter is don't bother, put your feet up, have a cup of tea or a wee dram and wait for the results to come in

Hugh 18-08-2014 16:06
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35722774)
Scaremonger, it's in the bag, my advice to every no voter is don't bother, put your feet up, have a cup of tea or a wee dram and wait for the results to come in
Thank you, Alex.... ;)

TheDaddy 18-08-2014 16:33
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35722501)
Still better not get complacent. It's not over until the fat man concedes.
Bully. I feel bad about the amount of abuse Alex takes, the man is a political force of nature, especially if you count drizzle as a force of nature.

Derek 20-08-2014 08:28
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.n...65349151_n.jpg

Booo, those nasty English don't want to share the pound with Alex. They also don't want Scotland to leave but that's not what the guessers will highlight.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...the-pound.html

Quote:
The Future of England Survey 2014, which was conducted on behalf of the Economic and Social Research Council by YouGov in late April, found 59 per cent opposition to Scottish independence compared to 19 per cent support.

Mr Salmond has claimed a Eurozone-style currency union with a separate Scotland would also be in the best interests of the remainder of the UK, but 53 per cent of English people rejected Scots continuing to use sterling.

Again, opposition to a deal on the pound was much stronger among Tory (69 per cent) and Ukip (64 per cent) voters than Labour (46 per cent) or Lib Dem (49 per cent) supporters.

Chris 20-08-2014 10:07
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
No Thanks signs are being targeted by vandals. There are far worse than this one, but they wouldn't be suitable for posting on a family friendly forum:

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2014/08/16.jpg

Yay for the Yes campaign, it's all about building a democratic Scotland, just as long as you vote the way they want you to.

Derek 20-08-2014 10:11
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35723155)
Yay for the Yes campaign, it's all about building a democratic Scotland, just as long as you vote the way they want you to.
The yessers are definately getting more militant and louder by the day, I really can't wait for this to be over with a result that ends the debate for a good long time.

Chris 20-08-2014 10:13
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Indeed.

Meanwhile I hope the boys in blue are at least making an attempt at tracking down the vandals - many of the signs in the central region have been done in exactly the same way, with silver spray paint and the same charming expletive. It looks as if there's a by determined little Gnat out there, who could do with having his wings clipped.

Osem 20-08-2014 11:59
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35723157)
The yessers are definately getting more militant and louder by the day, I really can't wait for this to be over with a result that ends the debate for a good long time.
I doubt it will. If the numbers who vote Yes are high then I can't see anything other than a great deal of resentment on both sides. They'll carry on whining about how the vote was only swayed by big bad English money blah blah blah and there'll be a great many English who won't soon forget all the anti-English sentiment the Yes mob have encouraged. I hope Bravemouth will be proud of his legacy...

Hugh 21-08-2014 19:56
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Some interesting points in today's Times (behind paywall).
Quote:
The former chief medical officer has said Alex Salmond is wrong to claim that a “yes” vote in the referendum would boost NHS Scotland.

Sir Kenneth Calman told The Times that the issues had become “confused” — and pointed out that Holyrood already had control over health spending. His intervention came as new figures show that the NHS in Scotland has spent almost £1 billion in three years sending patients for private treatment. The data are acutely embarrassing for the first minister, who has claimed that the private sector had been eradicated from the health service north of the Border....

...The NHS has become a last-minute battleground ahead of September’s referendum, with the first minister stating this week that it was the issue which was “shifting most votes”.

He and his ministers argue that the NHS is being privatised in England and that this will have a knock-on deleterious effect on Scottish spending. However, the NHS budget is not being cut at Westminster and Holyrood already has full control over health — allowing it to rely as much or as little on the private sector as it sees fit.
Later on in the article, you can almost hear the sound of straws being grasped.
Quote:
Sir Harry Burns, until recently chief medical officer for Scotland, said last month that independence had the potential to improve Scots’ health. He said: “The question is, would people in an independent country feel more in control of their lives? If they did, then that would be very positive for their health.”

Hugh 25-08-2014 21:50
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
1 Attachment(s)
Sums it up, really....

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...4&d=1409000120

Derek 25-08-2014 21:55
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
This debate is embarrassing, the chair is useless, the audience is clearly loaded with guesses and the usual student politic mentalists and Salmond is just shouting over Darling.

Never in a million years did I think STV would do a better job in a debate than the BBC.

Still at least we know if iScotland doesn't get it's way they will walk away from any accumulated UK debt. Just as well rUK doesn't have a veto over EU / NATO membership and the division of rUK institutions.

Chris 26-08-2014 00:24
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Glen Campbell deserves a P45 for that riot. Utterly hopeless, and the BBC clearly still has the same old problem with its audience screening that has dogged Question Time for years.

The STV chair had no problem selecting balanced comments from his audience - are we to believe that the 50% supposedly No-supporting audience members tonight suddenly all lost their voices?

Mr Angry 26-08-2014 00:32
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Oh dear.

Uncomfortable as it may be "71% find Alex Salmond victorious in second Scottish independence debate".

And a Nobel prize-winning economist has accused David Cameron's government of bluffing over its opposition to a currency union with an independent Scotland.

Cameron, so interested in the UK that he sent an opposition MP to lead the debate / defence of the union.

Speaks volumes.

Derek 26-08-2014 06:46
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Angry (Post 35724244)
Uncomfortable as it may be "71% find Alex Salmond victorious in second Scottish independence debate".
He can certainly shout louder. It was a better performance than the last one but he is still dodging the hard answers and wanting people to make a hugely important decision, from which there is no backing out and turning back, based on guesswork, finger crossing and hope.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Angry (Post 35724244)
And a Nobel prize-winning economist has accused David Cameron's government of bluffing over its opposition to a currency union with an independent Scotland.
Is suppose he would, being an advisor to Salmond, regardless the overwhelming will of rUK, the clear view of all rUK political leaders and most other economists is a formal currency union won't happen.
Plus either with Sterling or the Euro iScotland wouldn't have full control of its currency and wouldn't be independent as I see it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Angry (Post 35724244)
Cameron, so interested in the UK that he sent an opposition MP to lead the debate / defence of the union.
It was a debate between e leader of the two sides of the campaign. If Cameron had come it would have been even more of the 'Oooh evil Tories, food banks, privatisation! Etonian! Thatcher!' than we saw last night.

The Tories are hugely unpopular with the media and political activists up here, even if the numbers they got in the last election weren't a huge way away from the SNP and the leader of them appearing would have boosted the votes from those that think Braveheart is a historically accurate documentary.

Mr Angry 26-08-2014 06:50
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35724252)
The Tories are hugely unpopular with the media and political activists up here....
As indeed is Salmond in some quarters.

All to play for now.

Pierre 26-08-2014 08:58
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Just a couple of things floating about in my head about the currency debate.

If it's Scotlands pound too. Then surely it's rUK's Oil & Gas too?

Any decision on a Sterling zone, must be based on the will of the rUK population. which I'm sure would be a big fat no.

anyway all this debate has done is to get under the skin of even the most easy going of English people. I think the anti-English sentiment that is no bubbling to the top, may take some time to dissipate after this is over, in the event of a no vote.

In the event of a yes vote, I think there will be a monumental surge in anti-Scottish feeling that may never go away.

I think it will be close. I really hope the polls are all wrong and the yes's have been grossly over estimated. I hope the no's come out and smack them down.

Ignitionnet 26-08-2014 12:44
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35724264)
I really hope the polls are all wrong and the yes's have been grossly over estimated. I hope the no's come out and smack them down.
I don't. A 'no' vote still won't shut Salmond and the rest of his crew up. They think they know everything, have this foolproof plan, I very much hope they get to execute it, and Scotland, the UK, and the rest of the world see just how paper-thin and baseless their claims were.

Hugh 26-08-2014 13:19
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
But unfortunately, they'll just blame the big bad English/Tories/Labour/fill in scapegoat of choice....

Osem 26-08-2014 13:26
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35724335)
But unfortunately, they'll just blame the big bad English/Tories/Labour/fill in scapegoat of choice....
They'll do that whatever the result but at least if they get their own way us Sassenachs will be shot of them and can sit back and enjoy Salmond's inevitable demise from Bravemouth into Shutmouth. ;)

It's up to the Scots now and if they're stupid enough in large enough numbers to buy into Salmond's pipedream, more fool them. The SNP's bargaining power has in large part been due to the desire of the UK government to avoid a break up. If that decision is made for them, however, I expect Salmond's going to find the negotiations and get a whole lot tougher and concessions start to dry up.

Derek 27-08-2014 11:35
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
More schoolyard politics from the yes camp.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-...itics-28943041

Quote:
Finance Secretary John Swinney has confirmed Scotland will not pay its share of the UK debt if it does not get a currency union after independence.

The Scottish government minister told a BBC referendum debate if the UK seized all the assets of the currency it must also take all the liabilities.
Let's see how throwing a tantrum plays out with international investors and with negotiations to enter the EU, NATO and other international bodies and institutions.

Mr Angry 27-08-2014 11:57
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35724586)
More schoolyard politics from the yes camp.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-...itics-28943041



Let's see how throwing a tantrum plays out with international investors and with negotiations to enter the EU, NATO and other international bodies and institutions.
It's not "a tantrum" as such, and it seems to be a risk they are prepared to take.

As far as the undecided are concerned the ball is in the Tory, Labour, Lib Dem court. All they have to do is once and for all unilaterally and absolutely rule out any sharing of the pound and put the issue to bed.

Their language has softened, and in some cases shifted, since their initial ruling out of the sharing of the pound. In the face of continued insistence on the part of the Yes campain they need to (re)assert that position if it is indeed (re)assertable.

Problem solved.

Chris 27-08-2014 12:00
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Angry (Post 35724591)
It's not "a tantrum" as such, and it seems to be a risk they are prepared to take.

As far as the undecided are concerned the ball is in the Tory, Labour, Lib Dem court. All they have to do is once and for all unilaterally and absolutely rule out any sharing of the pound and put the issue to bed.

Their language has softened, and in some cases shifted, since their initial ruling out of the sharing of the pound. In the face of continued insistence on the part of the Yes campain they need to (re)assert that position if it is indeed (re)assertable.

Problem solved.
I suspect the politics of phraseology is a little more sophisticated in Northern Ireland than it is over here Mr A. The nationalists may continue to argue it's a bluff, but there is no sense around here that people in general are combing through the words and phrases used by the politicians and coming to that conclusion. The committed Yes campaigners say it's a bluff because that's what their campaign leaders have told them. The committed No campaigners, the opposite, for the same reason.

In the middle of it all, there are a lot of uncertain people - and in a constitutional referendum, uncertainty is the friend of the status quo. It is doubtful whether any further "clarification" is necessary, or even helpful.

Mr Angry 27-08-2014 12:03
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35724592)
In the middle of it all, there are a lot of uncertain people - and in a constitutional referendum, uncertainty is the friend of the status quo.
Therein lies the rub.

Osem 27-08-2014 14:47
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35724586)
More schoolyard politics from the yes camp.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-...itics-28943041



Let's see how throwing a tantrum plays out with international investors and with negotiations to enter the EU, NATO and other international bodies and institutions.
That threat may well come back to haunt Salmond's Tartan Twits.

Damien 29-08-2014 08:47
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
The Yessers are correct in saying they won't actually be defaulting by not taking the debt but the market is run by investors and any playing of political games over debt will be frowned upon irrespective of the technicalities of an official default.

Chris 29-08-2014 09:18
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
There has been a lot of wilful misunderstanding of this point from the Yes camp. They keep saying "you can't default on a debt you don't have", but they conveniently forget that actual default is but one of many factors the ratings agencies look at when deciding a score.

Osem 29-08-2014 09:36
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Their financial ineptitude is really being shown up. They're behaving like Argentina.

Derek 29-08-2014 09:56
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35725007)
Their financial ineptitude is really being shown up. They're behaving like Argentina.
Well Eck is running out of countries to try an emulate. He's previously (while campaigning furiously for Euro entry) claimed Scotland should be more like Ireland, then Iceland and now Norway. When Norway goes down the pan thanks to his reverse Midas words Argentina might step up to be the next model to copy.

Also today the guessers are making big things of a poll showing them as being exactly where they were before the two debates. :)

Damien 29-08-2014 09:59
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35725004)
There has been a lot of wilful misunderstanding of this point from the Yes camp. They keep saying "you can't default on a debt you don't have", but they conveniently forget that actual default is but one of many factors the ratings agencies look at when deciding a score.
Yup and even then the credit score is a debatable concept. The UK was downgraded but we didn't have to pay higher interest rates. Ultimately investors buy Government debt and use their own criteria for doing so. There is a marked contrast between Osbourne who immediately ensured the markets that the UK will honour all the debt and Salmond playing games with the 'we may/we may not' pay off debt.

Whatever happens the willingness to play games with other people's money will not inspire them to give you more cheaply.

Chris 29-08-2014 10:29
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35725011)
Well Eck is running out of countries to try an emulate. He's previously (while campaigning furiously for Euro entry) claimed Scotland should be more like Ireland, then Iceland and now Norway. When Norway goes down the pan thanks to his reverse Midas words Argentina might step up to be the next model to copy.

Also today the guessers are making big things of a poll showing them as being exactly where they were before the two debates. :)
Just saw that Survation poll. So, essentially, Darling's win in the first debate shifted 3 points worth of voters towards No. Salmond's win this week shifted 3 points worth of voters towards Yes. Quite aside from the fact that a 3-point swing is within the margin of error, Salmond ought to be very worried that his last game changing opportunity has sailed off into the sunset without changing anything much at all.

Better Together can't afford to take its foot off the pedal, but it is very hard to see where the Yes camp is going to get the votes from in the next 3 weeks. Even hoovering up every singe undecided isn't going to do it. And in any case, recent polling data (trying to remember which one it was) suggested that, when squeezed, the DKs are likely to come down 2:1 in favour of No.

Cobbydaler 29-08-2014 18:53
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Oh dear, some Yessers are taking things too far...
Quote:
Labour MP Jim Murphy has suspended his Scotland-wide tour ahead of the independence referendum, citing "co-ordinated abuse" from "Yes" voters.

Mr Murphy, who was hit by eggs on Thursday, claimed the Yes Scotland campaign was organising "mobs" to intimidate him and undecided voters.
Link

Osem 29-08-2014 18:55
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Clearly they're not very confident that they can win the argument. They're behaving like little more than a rabble and Scotland should be ashamed of them.

Chris 01-09-2014 07:47
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
The knives are out already ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...r-No-vote.html

Quote:
Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney have ordered civil servants to start planning for a No vote in the independence referendum amid concerns the SNP administration would represent a ‘dead duck’ government, the Telegraph can disclose today.

Scottish Government officials are drawing up a contingency plan to be implemented immediately after separation being rejected on September 18 to ensure Nationalist ministers do not limp towards the 2016 Holyrood election.

Senior sources said Ms Sturgeon, who could succeed Mr Salmond as First Minister if there is a No vote, and Mr Swinney, the Scottish Finance Minister, are behind the initiative to “move on very, very quickly” after the vote.
No role for Eck in their plans, then. Strange, that ...

Osem 01-09-2014 10:46
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35725695)
The knives are out already ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...r-No-vote.html



No role for Eck in their plans, then. Strange, that ...
Maybe Sean Connery needs a new gardener...

Damien 01-09-2014 21:33
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Getting very worrying now: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/ind...-close-indeed/

YouGov 53% No, 47% Yes. Undecided voters splitting to Yes by a margin of 2 - 1.

Hugh 01-09-2014 21:38
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Bookies are still showing Yes at 2/9, No at 3/1

Damien 01-09-2014 22:06
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35725880)
Bookies are still showing Yes at 2/9, No at 3/1
For now. YouGov is the most friendly pollster to No so far and the gap has collapsed from 18 to 6. I imagine the odds may come in a bit soon....

---------- Post added at 22:06 ---------- Previous post was at 21:41 ----------

Unless this poll is some sort of mistake then this should set off alarms. If it gets too close then we're in for a nervy night come September 18th. We need to wake up to the fact that the Union is in real danger and react to that. If needs be the parties need a concrete plan to offer further devolution.

Derek 02-09-2014 06:39
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2014/09/45.jpg

Worrying, especially since the 2011 Holyrood result but only a couple of weeks to get over the line and hopefully common sense will win over fantasy, petty dislike and the outright lies peddled by The guessers.

MalteseFalcon 02-09-2014 08:37
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Common sense? Realistically what do Scotland bring to the Union? Nothing apart from a Chancellor who screwed us before becoming PM and another Chancellor who had no answer to the crisis when it started.

If it was down to me, I would break up the whole UK. Each country has their own parliament so let them decide their own taxes, own benefits system and health service. I hope that come September 19th I can be happy with the result of the referendum.

Damien 02-09-2014 08:42
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkC1984 (Post 35725930)
Common sense? Realistically what do Scotland bring to the Union?
A surplus in GDP at the moment. More population. More workers. Many famous inventors, scientists, artists and so on.

Besides they're British and it would be sad to lose them.

Derek 02-09-2014 09:17
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkC1984 (Post 35725930)
Common sense? Realistically what do Scotland bring to the Union?
Aside from the first BRITISH winner of Wimbledon in umpteen years :D they bring a whole host of other benefits that you get from a union of several hundred years. If you think hiding away in a dark corner with no outside connections is the way to go then knock yourself out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkC1984 (Post 35725930)
If it was down to me, I would break up the whole UK.
Thankfully it's not.

Damien 02-09-2014 11:56
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
The odds have fallen now for a Yes win. *gulp*

Derek 02-09-2014 12:06
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35725964)
The odds have fallen now for a Yes win. *gulp*
Still have NO as likely winners but it show no complacency can be shown. The guessers will say and do literally anything to sneak a yes vote and deal with the aftermath later.

The no campaign has been virtually silent since the last debate and better get some counters out to some of the more blatant lies that have been swirling recently.

Chris 02-09-2014 12:14
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35725964)
The odds have fallen now for a Yes win. *gulp*
Well yes, they would have to, based on the polls.

Can we get a sense of perspective here - Yougov has come into line with a Survation poll that was also published within the last week. If there had been a dramatic swing to Yes, then we would have expected to see it in Survation as well, and most likely, given the historic differences between the two, Survation would have shown Yes in the lead.

Clearly Yes has made up some ground, but can it really be so sudden and so dramatic as Yougov now suggests? There is some evidence that Yougov altered its weighting for its poll published on 15 August, by reducing the significance in its sample of voters who were born outside Scotland. This has reduced the showing for No.

I'm not sticking my head in the sand here, but I think there is more than a whiff of Yougov quietly shifting its own goalposts so that come polling day its predictions are not shown to be wide of the mark.

It's more likely that Survation has had a better handle on things from the outset. Their results have long shown the two sides to be closer together, with a 6 point gap (excluding d/k) since the beginning of June, changed only briefly in the immediate aftermath of the first TV debate.

Damien 02-09-2014 12:27
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35725971)
Can we get a sense of perspective here - Yougov has come into line with a Survation poll that was also published within the last week. If there had been a dramatic swing to Yes, then we would have expected to see it in Survation as well, and most likely, given the historic differences between the two, Survation would have shown Yes in the lead.
Maybe although the last Survation poll also showed a 4 point gain for Yes. This could simply be that and the movement has stopped or Salmond's NHS tactic is working and the Currency Union impact has already happened.

Quote:
Clearly Yes has made up some ground, but can it really be so sudden and so dramatic as Yougov now suggests? There is some evidence that Yougov altered its weighting for its poll published on 15 August, by reducing the significance in its sample of voters who were born outside Scotland. This has reduced the showing for No.

I'm not sticking my head in the sand here, but I think there is more than a whiff of Yougov quietly shifting its own goalposts so that come polling day its predictions are not shown to be wide of the mark.
It did last time but this shows a 4 point gain since then with no apparent methodology change.

Quote:
It's more likely that Survation has had a better handle on things from the outset. Their results have long shown the two sides to be closer together, with a 6 point gap (excluding d/k) since the beginning of June, changed only briefly in the immediate aftermath of the first TV debate.
I hope you're right. I am starting to get concerned. Even if this does turn out to be the case it's a awful margin to win by and if it does get closer then turnout/motivation etc can be what decides it.

The YouGov polls has Yes leading in every demographic apart from the over-60s. Thankfully they vote en-masse but it's a worrying trend. Better Together need to get their act...together...

Derek 02-09-2014 12:30
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
More bad news for Better Together. :(

Previous PM and saviour of the universe Gordon Brown is campaigning for a no vote. Given his track record a Yes is almost a done deal.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-...itics-29023267

Damien 02-09-2014 12:37
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
He has been campaigning for a while. He tried to usurp Darling at one point but he keeps putting his foot in it.

Chris 02-09-2014 12:38
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35725973)
Maybe although the last Survation poll also showed a 4 point gain for Yes. This could simply be that and the movement has stopped or Salmond's NHS tactic is working and the Currency Union impact has already happened.



It did last time but this shows a 4 point gain since then with no apparent methodology change.



I hope you're right. I am starting to get concerned. Even if this does turn out to be the case it's a awful margin to win by and if it does get closer then turnout/motivation etc can be what decides it.

The YouGov polls has Yes leading in every demographic apart from the over-60s. Thankfully they vote en-masse but it's a worrying trend. Better Together need to get their act...together...
Survation showed Yes and No both making ground at the expense of d/k. Yougov has shown tightening since its last poll, but the really dramatic change is in comparison to the last-but-one, which is why all this morning's commentary is focusing on that. The thing is, last-but-one is when Yougov began down-weighting the voting intentions of people like me, who were born outside Scotland.

I'm really not trying to make it sound like Yes hasn't made progress. Clearly it has. But I do think that Yougov has produced an outlier here. If there was a sizeable, measurable shift to Yes from No, as opposed to Yes from d/k, then Survation would have shown that too, but it didn't.

Jimmy-J 02-09-2014 12:45
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Stop quivering, it'll definitely be a "NO" win.

techguyone 02-09-2014 12:56
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Alarm bells should be ringing if it ends up being really close. If it is, it'll encourage SNP to keep at it, if we devolve too much further, they'll end up independent anyway. Devolution is basically Independence by 1000 cuts, just takes longer.

Damien 02-09-2014 13:11
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35725980)
Survation showed Yes and No both making ground at the expense of d/k. Yougov has shown tightening since its last poll, but the really dramatic change is in comparison to the last-but-one, which is why all this morning's commentary is focusing on that. The thing is, last-but-one is when Yougov began down-weighting the voting intentions of people like me, who were born outside Scotland.

I'm really not trying to make it sound like Yes hasn't made progress. Clearly it has. But I do think that Yougov has produced an outlier here. If there was a sizeable, measurable shift to Yes from No, as opposed to Yes from d/k, then Survation would have shown that too, but it didn't.
I think YouGov may well have produced an outlier as well because of the size of the shift but down-weighting country of birth impacted the last poll. This +4% movement won't be because of that.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questi...ed%22%5D#table

Damien 02-09-2014 16:22
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Kellner has an article in the Guardian (think it was in The Sun too but paywall) http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...ond-referendum

Pierre 02-09-2014 19:37
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I'm sick to the back teeth with it.

If this ends with a No win, there is no way another referendum should offered for another 50 yrs minimum.

Osem 02-09-2014 19:54
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
What should happen next is the English be given a vote. :D

RizzyKing 02-09-2014 20:26
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
If no wins the next referendum should be rest of the UK asked if we still want Scotland in the union. SNP has succeeded in one regard they have created greater hostility towards Scotland which I'm pretty sure they intended to create the grounds for independence in the future.

TheDaddy 02-09-2014 20:33
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35726129)
What should happen next is the English be given a vote. :D
Gets my vote, if it were up to me England would leave the union in a heartbeat

Russ 02-09-2014 20:35
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
That wouldn't be fair, we wouldn't get our free prescriptions!

Pierre 02-09-2014 21:11
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
The Welsh know where their bread's buttered.

If they were cut adrift you have the population of Kazakhstan fearing economic migrants from Wales coming over, taking all their jobs.

Damien 02-09-2014 21:25
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35726133)
If no wins the next referendum should be rest of the UK asked if we still want Scotland in the union. SNP has succeeded in one regard they have created greater hostility towards Scotland which I'm pretty sure they intended to create the grounds for independence in the future.
No. You can't vote to kick out other members of the Union. You can't revoke it. If England left we would lose the Pound, lose the UK tag, lose the flag, lose a lot.

---------- Post added at 21:25 ---------- Previous post was at 21:24 ----------

BTW In the STV debate the leader of the Scottish Tories said it's unlikely they'll win the next Westminster election. A bit weird that.

Osem 02-09-2014 21:50
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35726133)
If no wins the next referendum should be rest of the UK asked if we still want Scotland in the union. SNP has succeeded in one regard they have created greater hostility towards Scotland which I'm pretty sure they intended to create the grounds for independence in the future.
I fear you're right. Life with the Scots in the UK will increasingly become like TFL and Bob Crowe - a constant source of unreasonable irritation.

The longer this has gone on, the more people I talk to say let them get on with it. I think it's a pity but it's their choice and I believe they'll soon start to regret it once Bravemouth has been exposed to them for the one trick pony he is. There'll be no going back from this if it happens.

Wad_2002 02-09-2014 22:18
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Best debate I have seen so far. Tonight on stv

As Damien pointed out above... Looks like some of the better together guests were getting their own campaigns started for the next election.

Watch the points sway tomorrow folks. The guests of better together did not do any justice.

I'm sure I will get some belters back...but I thought I would get back involved debate on cf :)

RizzyKing 02-09-2014 22:21
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Yes Damian I know the English are just expected to take any crap thrown at them no matter how often and how much and even though I know most Scots don't agree with it doesn't make it any nicer month after month.

Damien 02-09-2014 22:22
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wad_2002 (Post 35726159)
Best debate I have seen so far. Tonight on stv

As Damien pointed out above... Looks like some of the better together guests were getting their own campaigns started for the next election.

Watch the points sway tomorrow folks. The guests of better together did not do any justice.

I'm sure I will get some belters back...but I thought I would get back involved debate on cf :)
The debate is a rehash really. Some points over and over again for months now. The new thing is the Yes campaign of making a No vote seem like a risk too.

nomadking 02-09-2014 22:40
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
More problems with EU membership.
Link
Quote:
The former EU commissioner for monetary union said it would not be possible for an independent Scotland to join the EU if it used the pound without a formal currency deal or its own central bank.
In other words, Scotland has to have its own currency or it can't join the EU.:D

Derek 02-09-2014 22:44
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35726162)
In other words, Scotland has to have its own currency or it can't join the EU.:D
Some absolute, 100%, cast iron walloper on twitter is claiming this can't be true as Germany and France don't use sterling...

And these people have a vote. :dunce:

I thought the debate was good tonight. All three No'ers were far better than Darling and pretty much destroyed the guessers.

MalteseFalcon 02-09-2014 23:13
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I know, it does make you worry about the country in the future. Of course they didn't have Sterling currency, they had their own currency and their own Central bank which enabled them to enter the single currency. And look how that ended up for some countries! Much as I moan about Scotland and Scottish people, at least Brown did one thing right and that was to not enter us into the single currency.

LondonRoad 02-09-2014 23:22
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35726164)

I thought the debate was good tonight. All three No'ers were far better than Darling and pretty much destroyed the guessers.
I'm guessing that you were watching it through NO tinted glasses because I'm not so sure they destroyed the guessers.

I've encountered quite a few people who intended voting No who have changed their minds recently. I'm beginning to have a rethink myself. The misinformation and the scaremongering from Better Together is making me re-examine the misinformation and the scaremongering of the Yes campaign. ;)

I'm now on the fence. Heid says Naw, heart says Aye.

MalteseFalcon 02-09-2014 23:54
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Follow the heart!!!!!!!!

TheDaddy 03-09-2014 01:24
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Russ (Post 35726135)
That wouldn't be fair, we wouldn't get our free prescriptions!
Yeah you would, the Welsh government would pay for them

Damien 03-09-2014 07:28
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
The SNP have managed to convince everyone that they'll get a Currency Union. That's a problem right there but I guess once they get a Yes vote then that's all that matters.

LondonRoad 03-09-2014 08:24
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35726192)
The SNP have managed to convince everyone that they'll get a Currency Union. That's a problem right there but I guess once they get a Yes vote then that's all that matters.
.... or the BT campaign have failed to convince everyone that there won't be a currency union;)

Derek 03-09-2014 08:36
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35726170)
I'm guessing that you were watching it through NO tinted glasses because I'm not so sure they destroyed the guessers.
You must have missed Elaine Smith getting torn apart, the green lunatic dismissing 8000 job losses and telling the world iScotland won't use fossil fuels (unless I missed a memo that includes oil) and the yes panel telling the audience the white paper on independence wasn't what was going to be on offer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35726170)
The misinformation and the scaremongering from Better Together is making me re-examine the misinformation and the scaremongering of the Yes campaign.
I have legal advice on EU entry.
I've started technical discussions on a currency union with the Bank of England.

Two absolute whoppers right there that far outweigh anything the no camp has spun.

---------- Post added at 08:36 ---------- Previous post was at 08:28 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35726162)
More problems with EU membership.
Another one to add to the Alex is right, everyone else is wrong list.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...e-with-EU.html

Quote:
Mr Salmond, who has previously admitted that sterlingisation would merely be a stopgap, insisted the former commissioner was “wrong”. However, he refused three times when challenged by the Telegraph to say what currency would be adopted in the long term.

Mr Rehn, a Finnish MEP, served as the commissioner in charge of economic affairs and the euro between February 2010 and July this year. For the previous five years, he was commissioner in charge of enlargement, meaning he oversaw the accession of new member states.

Mr Salmond has claimed an independent Scotland would start life in the EU thanks to a fast-tracked membership process that would see the European treaties tweaked to include the new member state.

But Mr Rehn rejected this in his letter, dated today, saying Scotland would be forced to apply using the “normal well-known procedures” and meet all the necessary criteria.
Yes Alex the person who oversaw enlargement for several years is wrong and you're right.

Damien 03-09-2014 08:42
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35726195)
.... or the BT campaign have failed to convince everyone that there won't be a currency union;)
Maybe. Either way that will end up being the SNP's rather large problem is it turns out that the three party leaders aren't bluffing.

Russ 03-09-2014 09:18
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35726144)
The Welsh know where their bread's buttered.

If they were cut adrift you have the population of Kazakhstan fearing economic migrants from Wales coming over, taking all their jobs.
No we wouldn't, we'd just come over to you seeing as it's apparently so easy to get in to England these days. Just keep paying those taxes please :)

LondonRoad 03-09-2014 10:45
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35726199)
Maybe. Either way that will end up being the SNP's rather large problem is it turns out that the three party leaders aren't bluffing.
You're making the rather large assumption that the SNP will be in Government when Scotland becomes independent. If the vote is yes then you may see their positions softening as their parties seek seats in the new Scottish parliament.

---------- Post added at 10:45 ---------- Previous post was at 10:44 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Russ (Post 35726205)
No we wouldn't, we'd just come over to you seeing as it's apparently so easy to get in to England these days. Just keep paying those taxes please :)
You have to go through France though. Damn that Hadrian's wall :D

Damien 03-09-2014 11:26
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35726223)
You're making the rather large assumption that the SNP will be in Government when Scotland becomes independent. If the vote is yes then you may see their positions softening as their parties seek seats in the new Scottish parliament
The SNP will be in charge when these issues will be negotiated. The Currency, along with NATO and the EU, will be their responsibility.

The other parties will have to be permanently spilt, you will not have UK Parties making concessions to Scotland to help their Scottish counterpart in Scottish elections. Remember that the UK parties will be seeking election for the British Parliament and the public opinion in rUK is not to enter a Currency Union and underwrite a Foreign country's banking sector.

The rest of the UK wants Scotland to stay but if it leaves they do not want it to have an 'à la carte' approach to the Union where it picks and chooses which parts of the Union it wants to keep and which it wants to discard of. The Yes campaign are promising a illusion of maintaining all the benefits of the Union without the drawbacks.

So rUK will agree to bail out Scottish Banks if they go under and will cede some monetary policy over to an Independent Scotland. The remainder of the United Kingdom will also still subsidise the Scottish renewables industry but obviously Scotland will keep all the money from the Oil.

Stephen 03-09-2014 13:04
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Yet again the yespests on my FB trying to tell me I'm wrong to vote no and I keep posting untruths! Yet they are the ones claiming I will be better off and the country will have so much more money under an iS.

Haha they don't like facts and can't accept people wanting to remain part of a bigger picture. Or having a differing opinion to theirs.

Believing every bit of nonsense being spouting from Eck and his barmy army of blind followers.

LondonRoad 03-09-2014 13:26
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35726233)
The SNP will be in charge when these issues will be negotiated. The Currency, along with NATO and the EU, will be their responsibility.

The other parties will have to be permanently spilt, you will not have UK Parties making concessions to Scotland to help their Scottish counterpart in Scottish elections. Remember that the UK parties will be seeking election for the British Parliament and the public opinion in rUK is not to enter a Currency Union and underwrite a Foreign country's banking sector.

The rest of the UK wants Scotland to stay but if it leaves they do not want it to have an 'à la carte' approach to the Union where it picks and chooses which parts of the Union it wants to keep and which it wants to discard of. The Yes campaign are promising a illusion of maintaining all the benefits of the Union without the drawbacks.

So rUK will agree to bail out Scottish Banks if they go under and will cede some monetary policy over to an Independent Scotland. The remainder of the United Kingdom will also still subsidise the Scottish renewables industry but obviously Scotland will keep all the money from the Oil.
The SNP won't be negotiating on it's own. It will involve representatives of the the other parties as well as the wider Scottish civic society.

Damien 03-09-2014 14:35
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35726250)
The SNP won't be negotiating on it's own. It will involve representatives of the the other parties as well as the wider Scottish civic society.
As the SNP say but they're the ones with the majority in the Scottish Parliament.

TheDaddy 03-09-2014 15:37
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Russ (Post 35726205)
No we wouldn't, we'd just come over to you seeing as it's apparently so easy to get in to England these days. Just keep paying those taxes please :)
Why do you keep portraying Wales and the Welsh as parasites dependent on English money Russ, I'm sure it isn't true, do you not like being Welsh anymore?

Pierre 03-09-2014 19:21
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35726264)
Why do you keep portraying Wales and the Welsh as parasites dependent on English money Russ
Because they are?

Russ 03-09-2014 21:45
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35726264)
Why do you keep portraying Wales and the Welsh as parasites dependent on English money Russ, I'm sure it isn't true, do you not like being Welsh anymore?
I'm as happy being Welsh as you are of being English. We're not parasites at all but lots of your lot like to think we are so I just play up to that ignorance.

Although it is quietly satisfying to watch the anti-Celt elitist English types get annoyed that we get free prescriptions and you don't :)

TheDaddy 03-09-2014 22:02
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Russ (Post 35726346)
I'm as happy being Welsh as you are of being English. We're not parasites at all but lots of your lot like to think we are so I just play up to that ignorance.

Although it is quietly satisfying to watch the anti-Celt elitist English types get annoyed that we get free prescriptions and you don't :)
Half Welsh isn't it

Damien 03-09-2014 22:21
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Most regions of the UK, including those in England, are net recipients when it comes to tax receipts/government money spent. That's not how a country works. Large urban areas, or those with resources, tend to rake in the cash and outer areas do not. Cities do well, rural areas less well by that kind of metric. It doesn't matter.

Anyway Yes Scotland have denied that a Panelbase poll would emerge tonight showing Yes in the lead. This was speculated because Panelbase have been conducting a poll on behalf of Yes according to those being polled. Therefore Yes are simply not releasing it. Probably they haven't gained anything over the last one.

Small victories....

Derek 03-09-2014 22:27
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35726352)
Therefore Yes are simply not releasing it. Probably they haven't gained anything over the last one.

Small victories....
I wonder if the guessers will have the same outcry over 'secret' polls like they did when it was rumoured Westminster were sitting on a poll showing a lurch towards independence. :)

Another good debate tonight for the No camp. Souter is a homophobic, religious nut job who shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a TV camera or microphone. Jim Murphy came across well and some yes lies we're shown up.

Admitting you would discriminate against English students pretty much purely because they are English even though its clearly against EU law was an own goal for the nats.

Damien 03-09-2014 22:34
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35726353)
I wonder if the guessers will have the same outcry over 'secret' polls like they did when it was rumoured Westminster were sitting on a poll showing a lurch towards independence. :)
Yeah think we know the answer to that. ;) Still it's perfectly normal for Governments or Campaigns to have private polls. This could have been a bad poll or it could have been an internal poll asking different questions the release of which would give insight into their strategy over the remaining weeks. Probably wasn't however because the people being asked seem to have been asked the standard lot according to the Twitter Yessers.

You can see their hopes being dashed here: https://twitter.com/search?f=realtim...lbase&src=typd

Quote:
Admitting you would discriminate against English students pretty much purely because they are English even though its clearly against EU law was an own goal for the nats.
I presume there is a official reason why English students don't get the same rights however? Probably because we would charge them?

Damien 05-09-2014 14:54
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...d-Kingdom.html

Quote:
Britain is 13 days away from being voted out of existence, and those trying to save it need all the help they can get.

MalteseFalcon 05-09-2014 15:11
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
No. No they don't. I'm pleased the yes vote is gaining ground on the no voters.

Hugh 05-09-2014 15:40
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Well, I'm not - I don't want to see the UK broken up to satisfy Wee Eck's megalomania....


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