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You and I are clearly not going to agree about what constitutes external 'help' and whether it was right morally or otherwise. The fact that other countries and banks have done the same thing doesn't make it any better or worse IMHO. The banking practices which were widespread and accepted/overlooked/turned a blind eye to pre 2008 but aren't now are an example of how what's deemed acceptable and what isn't is subject to change. The Greeks are the issue now and I dare say the extent to which other countries have employed dubious accounting methods in order to hide their economic problems will be more fully exposed in due course and a good number of chickens finally come home to roost.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...ed-libyan-fund http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_849708.html Banks clearly aren't immune from wrongdoing as the various regulators prove regularly. with all those heavy fines they impose. Neither are they strangers to legal actions but only the courts can decide what is or isn't legal in the final analysis and only time will tell... |
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c7b7f2c-3...#axzz3hNpfWsDn
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Does that factor in that the Germans and others have to borrow money in order to give it to Greece? Also half of the Greek debt has already been written off, so where is that in any "calculations".
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How quickly Germany has forgotten it's past
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Just in case anyone thought this was all over:
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Some posts moved.
Please remember that discussion of the referendum has its very own thread here: http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/20...eferendum.html |
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Another post moved.
PLEASE STOP POSTING ABOUT THE NEGOTIATIONS/REFERENDUM IN HERE. The referendum has its own thread: http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/20...eferendum.html |
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Is the European project failing apart?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34940241 Quote:
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Are the Euro-worms turning?
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There's a whole lot of resentment aimed at Germany for one reason or another... |
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Just in case anyone out there's still labouring under the impression that the EU is a nice worry free place to be:
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We're certainly not isolated from the fallout but better off as far out of the EU as possible I reckon. There's plenty more bad news on the way from that direction and we need to concentrate on developing trade elsewhere. Quote:
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Now brexit is over the bad news will start coming through again the economic stability of the EU is not good and I'll bet as it gets worse more and more tensions will surface I give it five years tops before it falls apart.
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Urgent reform is needed yet the combination of Merkel's strangelhold on things and the Euro-Egos in Brussels will probably ensure that nothing much happens any time soon. The longer this goes on, the bigger the crisis will be when it eventually comes to a head. |
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Oh plenty is being done it's Xmas come early for the Germans they are asset stripping as much as they can in Greece and will do the same in Spain, Portugal and maybe Italy and I'm sure France will get in on the act before long. Not much being done to really help Greece but then if they got back on their feet things wouldn't be so cheap to buy your caring, sharing EU at work.
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It'd be so nice if Brexit focuses minds on what needs to be done within Europe but I seriously can't see it happening. |
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Amongst many European citizens there is anything but a rekindling of love for the eu quite the opposite many now want the same vote we just had and more then a couple of countries given the vote would leave. The eu politicians are not even playing nice with each other and tensions are on the rise although most Brits could be forgiven for thinking it was all love and cocoa at bedtime during the referendum as all negative eu related things magically vanished from our screens.
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Ah well, we're all Leavers now so all's well that ends well :). |
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Some interesting and rather worrying information and background on the state of Italy's banks and the dilemma its govt. faces.
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Yes things are going so well in Europe that the Germans are being told to stockpile emergency supplies of food and water :erm:
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If it happens it'll be Brexit's fault I'm sure... :D |
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Things aren't getting any better in Greece, quite the reverse in fact:
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It's true that Southern European countries are prone to irresponsible spending. Previously, however, they were able to devalue their currency and carry on. Their money was worth little beyond their borders, but provided they could produce most of what they needed domestically, the internal economy could keep ticking over. The massive elephant in the guardian newsroom is of course the Euro, which makes the usual club med devaluation strategy impossible. In fact, impoverishing the populace is quite deliberate - it is an attempt to replicate the effects of devaluing the currency, without actually devaluing it. It's called "internal devaluation". Greece has been sacrificed on the altar of the single currency. |
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Yes decades of it - institutionalised. All the more reason that Greece should never have been admitted to the Euro-club, then it could have sunk or swum according to it's own decisions. As it is, tied to the Euro...
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Well greece is not likely to be the last one flushed down the EU toilet for the sake of the euro so they will have company soon.
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I quite agree. The Eurocrats are doing their version of rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic IMHO.
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Let's hope someone in Brussels listens to them. That'd make a nice change eh?... |
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Maybe it's because they don't want the Roma back? |
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They don't want their share of migrants either but I'm not sure they'll get their way. Merkel won't a mini-clique determining her policy for the EU.
In any event nobody seriously starts any negotiation by acquiescing in advance. |
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I wonder if they are going to insist that the US complies with the freedom of movement requirement in order to get a trade deal.
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Deals are meant to be a 2-way thing. As the EU is demanding so much from us, perhaps we should demand money from the EU in exchange for easier access to our markets. That might shut them up.
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Protests turn nasty in Greece. Thousands of pensioners took to the streets and the police responded with tear gas and baton charges, not to be out done the olds responded in turn by trying to tip a riot van over, many backs and hips were put out in the process
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-riot-van.html |
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I think in all the melee surrounding the referendum result a lot of folk have lost sight of the huge problems the Eurozone has stored up for itself. They're still present and the Deutsche Bank situation is just one manifestation of what lies ahead. |
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Salivating at the prospect of the Eurozone collapsing is Europhobia in the extreme. It would badly affect this country aswell (Brexit or no Brexit).
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The EU exports more to us than we do to them, We will be free to source elsewhere, they will have to sell elsewhere unless they are willing to do a deal. If the EU want to write off those exports then hey-ho let them get on with it. |
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I missed this when on our hols but:
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Oh dear, things not so good over there yet then... ---------- Post added at 14:49 ---------- Previous post was at 14:41 ---------- Quote:
As for 'salivating' about Eurozone collapse? What utter tosh! I for one would much rather they'd seen the light and reformed but not a chance of that even in the face of Brexit. Nobody's 'salivating' simply pointing out what's happening just across the water is perfectly legitimate especially since, it already has and will continue to affect the UK adversely, even moreso if we're still shackled to the sinking ship. Rather than attacking the messengers, maybe it'd be more useful for some people to focus on the flawed EU ideology, political dogma, mismanagement and utter intransigence which has led the Eurozone into this crisis and shows no sign of abating. So much easier to ignore all that and resort to the usual insults though eh? Standard fare for those who can't argue their case... :rolleyes: ---------- Post added at 15:07 ---------- Previous post was at 14:49 ---------- Then there's this still simmering away nicely: Quote:
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While it seems some people on here are incapable of grasping this extremely simple concept I'll reiterate that membership of the Single Market as part of the European Economic Area does not mean membership of the Customs Union, so tariffs, trade policies, etc, become a UK competency. May have some fun sourcing elsewhere though given the day after we leave we'll almost certainly have free trade agreements with no-one and can have tariff-free trade with no-one, while the EU have 53 free trade agreements they can sell through. The export thing has been done to death but repeating yet again they are over 40% of our exports, we are 10% of theirs So if you're fine with our writing off 40% of our exports then hey-ho let's get on with it. You may dogmatically be desperate for a hard Brexit given you've apparently loathed the EU my entire lifetime, those of who are aren't retired or nearly retired would appreciate the opportunity to keep our jobs. When even that huge fan of the EU Arron Banks prefers EEA membership over a hard Brexit it should give you some idea of just how extreme that view is. Bizarre that it seems to be the direction now. ---------- Post added at 16:23 ---------- Previous post was at 16:09 ---------- Quote:
Many of those who wanted to remain in the EU entirely appreciated it had major issues and wanted to try and resolve them from within. That well known Neocon Yanis Varoufakis gave a talk about it. I loathed and continue to loathe the manner in which they treated Greece and think they have a whole collection of things they have done wrong, Merkel's handling of refugees being one. I appreciate far easier to just go with the black and white view Brexiteers good, 'Remoaners' bad though. |
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We export about £220 billion in goods and sercives to the other 27 EU member states but import about £290 billion from them. You speak of the EU as a whole yet there are EU states that import more form us than they export to us. Conversly there are those who export more to us and who is the biggest one? Surprise, surprise it's that powerhouse of Europe Germany. Try telling them that they'll only lose 10% of their exports if a deal isn't done. Spain, Belgium, France, Italy and Poland are only a little behind. That is 6 member states that have a lot to lose and it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP. So yes, if they don't want to deal then hey-ho bye bye. I presume you will accept a graph published by the ONT in 2015 as proof. https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/10/21.png |
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Resolve them how i keep hearing how we should have stayed in reformed from within but no one has come up with a practical how we'd have done that given the EU has shown zero interest in reforming even after the UK votes to leave still not a hint of meaningful reform. The EU has one goal and only oneway to get there and if you don't agree with it tough because there's only oneway how do you even start to attempt reform when that's the attitude.
When the EU collapses because it is a case of when not if it won't be celebrated anywhere as a great many people will suffer because of it and if I'd honestly believed the EU was prepared to reform and adapt to the world we're in I'd have voted remain as i think many others would have. We've had this whole "reform from within" for twenty years and nothing has come from it no changes the progression has continued exactly as the EU always intended. Voting for brexit wasn't ideal far from it but of the two options it was better then continued membership of a broken organisation completely out of touch with it's citizens. There will be tough times ahead economically although i don't think they will be as tough as some predict and on the day we formally leave the EU some are going to be surprised at the trade deals that will come into play and the opportunities we have available to us. |
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The EU has no interest in reforming. That isn't in it's DNA. It simply can do that.
It's all or nothing. |
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You are correct when you mention that it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP, so thanks for making that point for me. We're about 7.5% of Germany's total exports, and while their consumption is somewhat low Germans actually do have a domestic economy. The £27 billion surplus they ran with us in trade in 2015 was less than 1.5% of their economy. The £12 billion Spain ran in surplus about 1.5% of GDP. Belgium's surplus 2.5% of GDP, France's not even 1%. Exports to us are 3-4% of EU-27s economy. Our exports to them are 12% of our economy. Their economy is considerably larger. Germany are quite aware of the consequences and seem quite willing to take them, both politicians and trade bodies as they fear the longer term consequences would be far more harmful than a loss of some, it obviously wouldn't be all, trade. Thankfully it looks like the government, behind the rhetoric, is more pragmatic. Quote:
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We should have listened to France back in the 60's when they vetoed our application to join |
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I didn't say the EU was a great club nor have i ever stated that and i think you took my post the wrong way i in no way support what the EU has become or the way it conducts itself. I actually believe that the EU is more of a threat to peace then a gaurantor of it and the continued push to expand the EU is dangerous and reckless.
There is no doubt in my mind that the UK will end up significantly more prosperous eventually but there is going to be a period of economic adjustment and harder financial times ahead for many of us. Remaining part of the EU in it's current form wasn't an option for me and the prospect of a united european state in the future definately not something I'd ever consider acceptable. Though the chances of the EU surviving long enough to accomplish that now is highly unlikely i doubt very much that the EU will survive the next twenty years. |
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I was, however, intensely naive to impose that as a test or guide to our actions given our current position. That was a mistake, and a fundamental one. |
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They tinker around the edges and won't even acknowledge the major flaws in the 'one size fits all' Eurozone, let alone tackle them. ---------- Post added at 09:41 ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 ---------- Quote:
Still, to be fair, it's not as though the likes of France, Italy, Spain and Germany are having problems is it? Thankfully it's just insignificant minnows like Greece and Portugal who're in trouble and there's no risk of serious contagion at all... :rolleyes: Yes the EU could and should have been a very good thing so just what does it say about those who've run it that they've created a basket case and refuse to accept that even now? With different leadership, a more pragmatic approach and a far more cautious approach to expansion a great many of the problems could have been avoided and we'd all have reaped the benefits. ---------- Post added at 09:48 ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 ---------- Quote:
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In some positive news Deutche Bank's worries seem to be abating a bit, and Citigroup have upgraded Eurozone banks generally.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-treasury-war/ |
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Appalling austerity and unemployment in parts of the EU are not the EU's fault. Please discuss...
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Your original post up, it's not as though the EU is currently a model for success is it. It's lurched from groteseque wine lakes and butter mountains to appalling austerity, huge unemployment, |
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Nice try?
I know what I've written. It's called putting the ball in your court. ;) In the Post Brexit thread you asked me why certain problems were the fault of the EU and I've replied there and referred you here so you can find/read my views in more detail if you so wish. I'm now (via the post you quoted above) inviting some meaningful comment from you on why you feel the EU's policies aren't to blame for the problems I cited because you seem to disagree with my sentiments. If you don't wish to discuss it that's fine but I was expecting something other than questions from you at this point. |
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I digress... To come up with some relevant questions and/or debate give me a while to read through the thread and we can pick up and discuss |
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Your view of discussing things seems to involve posing questions without answering any as you've just done again with Martyh in the post Brexit thread. Forgive me if I decline to carry on with that sort of 'discussion'. What I think about the EU's problems is here in some detail, you can disagree as much as you like (we're all entitled to do that) but it's now up to do a lot more than just disagree with opinions and pose questions. How about you come up with the evidence which supports your apparent view that the appalling unemployment and austerity in Europe aren't the fault of the EU for a change? That's why I posted this: http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...postcount=1892 Remember? Good luck with that anyway. ;) |
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Euro 'house of cards' to collapse, warns ECB prophet
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Just in case anyone was thinking that things are so much better over there:
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Brexit is a big deal fraught with risks and difficulties but let's not forget what we're trying to detach ourselves from eh. |
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Looks like even smaller change compared to the scale of the problems inherent within the European banking system which are simmering away quite nicely.
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Meaning they dare not continue to bail out Greece because otherwise it would mean their beloved Euro would go down the pan. On that basis Greece can do what it likes.
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Yes and some folks still want us further shackled to this mess. How very weird... :spin:
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Greece deserves all it's going to get, I'm afraid. Thank heavens we will not have to cough up. |
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I used to believe it would but now I'm just wondering if it's all anti-EU spin. Yes, Germany has helped Greece financially but Germany gains from a weak Euro. |
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You can't have different countries pursuing different economic and fiscal policies that impact on a common currency. The EU is a mish mash bureaucracy that stifles business and innovation. It will ultimately implode and we will be fortunate indeed to have extracated ourselves from all parts of this mad European project. It could be made to work, of course, but the Eurocrats simply don't have a clue. |
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Sooner or later, the EU will either have to admit defeat or go federal, IMHO. |
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This from a couple of months ago:
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All they do is continually raise the debt ceiling,quantative easing, a.k.a.producing money out of thin air.The whole banking system is a giant ponzi scheme.Does any sane person actually think that that our/eu/usa debts will ever be brought down to balance out?.As my late dad would say "not a snowballs chance in hell".
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The point is, they chose to spend money like there was no tomorrow, recklessly taking unfair advantage of getting into the EU. It was their choice, granted, but they should not have been able to exercise a choice which impacted so gravely on other EU members. Without a federal Europe, this could happen all over again with any so-called 'anti austerity' government. ---------- Post added at 13:24 ---------- Previous post was at 13:22 ---------- Quote:
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Debt bailing out debt it seems to me. Who's going to pay for it? |
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Just another reason for a hard Brexit. |
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Not being entangled in the Euro has meant our economy has outperformed the EU. That has led to our budget contributions becoming relatively higher. |
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As has been stated many times here and elsewhere in the forum, the UK will be always be affected badly by any collapse of the Eurozone but it'd be far worse if we were still in the EU at the time or had joined the Euro as so many so called 'experts' told us we should so. We're not in the Schengen area either but the flawed ideology which led to its creation still adversely affects the UK directly and indirectly. |
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We could profit, or we could lose. Note: Although I voted remain, I hope our country prospers even after article 50 has been invoked, and once I looked into it, I never thought the Euro was a good thing. It required that countries tied their economies to Europe in a way I don't think is good for all of them. |
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As it stands, from what I heard from a Brussels bureaucrat this morning, their plan B is more plan A... :rolleyes: Quote:
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Haven't we been here before?
http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-thr...lates-10803361 Turkey Threatens to scrap refugee deal as diplomatic row escalates over Netherlands spat. |
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Who'd have thought?! :rolleyes:
Just one of many massive problems facing the EU. The others haven't gone away... |
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Ah, so the 'migrant deal' is the Sword of Damocles available every time Turkey isn't happy about something. What do the EU fanboys here feel about this way of doing business?
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Whenever the EU's issues are highlighted by events it's usual very vocal supporters go very quiet and aren't seen much until the next brexit disaster article appears then they reappear to tellus we'd have been better off remaining in the EU. I recently had a discussion with some business people most from the continent and was quite surprised how pessimistic they are about the EU's future but the one thing they all agreed on was that before the collapse there will be more dramatic integration tried to stave off many of the issue's.
Another thing that surprised me was how positive they were about brexit and the UK's future, i guess even though i don't buy into a lot of the pessimism in the media i did think the continent had a more uniformed negative take on brexit. Interesting times ahead with a period of both uncertainty and struggle but the more i hear people from the continent talk about the EU the more i realise that applies to both the UK and the EU. |
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