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-   -   Eurozone will collapse... (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33678876)

Osem 21-07-2015 14:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35789631)
The Greeks were fiddling the books on a widespread scale.

Didn't help that they had a law requiring Greek pension funds to have 77% of their money in Greek bonds. Must have seemed a good idea at the time and probably was.

I know, I posted a link about that dating from 2010 above and they needed help to pull it off. We all know they've been living well beyond their means for decades and they probably hoped EU/Eurozone membership would ensure that their excess would eventually be paid for by others. As it stands they're probably right too because I think a lot of debt is going to be written off in one way or another.

nomadking 21-07-2015 15:02

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35789813)
I know, I posted a link about that dating from 2010 above and they needed help to pull it off. We all know they've been living well beyond their means for decades and they probably hoped EU/Eurozone membership would ensure that their excess would eventually be paid for by others. As it stands they're probably right too because I think a lot of debt is going to be written off in one way or another.

They didn't need any help. They were doing all of it themselves. All Goldman Sachs did, as other banks have done with other EU countries, is carry out the Greek government requests of a certain type of financial transaction. The loans arranged that way were for £2.8billion, that is a drop in the ocean for Greece. Whether it went on the books or not, was purely down to the Greek government. The same goes for all the other fiddles, eg publicly owned companies running up massive debts on behalf of the government.
Quote:

Then Goldman Sachs came to the rescue, arranging a secret loan of 2.8 billion euros for Greece, disguised as an off-the-books “cross-currency swap”—a complicated transaction in which Greece’s foreign-currency debt was converted into a domestic-currency obligation using a fictitious market exchange rate.
...
In the late 1990s, JPMorgan enabled Italy to hide its debt by swapping currency at a favorable exchange rate, thereby committing Italy to future payments that didn’t appear on its national accounts as future liabilities.

Osem 21-07-2015 15:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
You and I are clearly not going to agree about what constitutes external 'help' and whether it was right morally or otherwise. The fact that other countries and banks have done the same thing doesn't make it any better or worse IMHO. The banking practices which were widespread and accepted/overlooked/turned a blind eye to pre 2008 but aren't now are an example of how what's deemed acceptable and what isn't is subject to change. The Greeks are the issue now and I dare say the extent to which other countries have employed dubious accounting methods in order to hide their economic problems will be more fully exposed in due course and a good number of chickens finally come home to roost.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...ed-libyan-fund

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_849708.html

Banks clearly aren't immune from wrongdoing as the various regulators prove regularly. with all those heavy fines they impose. Neither are they strangers to legal actions but only the courts can decide what is or isn't legal in the final analysis and only time will tell...

Ignitionnet 30-07-2015 16:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c7b7f2c-3...#axzz3hNpfWsDn

Quote:

The International Monetary Fund’s board has been told Athens’ high debt levels and poor record of implementing reforms disqualify Greece from a third IMF bailout of the country, raising new questions over whether the institution will join the EU’s latest financial rescue.

The determination, presented by IMF staff at a two-hour board meeting on Wednesday, means that while IMF staff will participate in bailout negotiations currently under way in Athens, the Fund will not decide whether to agree a new programme for months – potentially into next year.

That delay could have significant repercussions, particularly in Germany, where officials have long said it would be impossible to win Bundestag approval for the new €86bn bailout without the IMF on board.

Osem 11-08-2015 10:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

The Greek debt crisis has saved the German government some €100bn (£70bn; $109bn) in lower borrowing costs because investors have sought safety in German bonds, a study has found.

Even if Greece defaults on all its debt, Germany would still benefit, says the German IWH institute.

Greece is hoping to reach a third bailout agreement, worth up to €86bn, with its creditors this week.

Germany has funded €90bn so far and wants tough conditions for a new deal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33845836

nomadking 11-08-2015 11:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Does that factor in that the Germans and others have to borrow money in order to give it to Greece? Also half of the Greek debt has already been written off, so where is that in any "calculations".

Ignitionnet 11-08-2015 12:37

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35792945)
Also half of the Greek debt has already been written off, so where is that in any "calculations".

Given it was the privately owned portion of the debt that was written down precisely nowhere I would imagine.

---------- Post added at 11:37 ---------- Previous post was at 11:35 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35792945)
Does that factor in that the Germans and others have to borrow money in order to give it to Greece?

Yes.

mrmistoffelees 11-08-2015 18:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
How quickly Germany has forgotten it's past

Osem 09-11-2015 22:43

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Just in case anyone thought this was all over:

Quote:

Greece has failed in its attempt to secure the first release of cash under its €87bn bail-out package, as creditor powers deemed the country had failed to make enough progress on passing key reforms


Athens' anti-austerity government will not receive a €2.15bn as scheduled this week, raising fears the country's new rescue programme is stalling at the first hurdle.

• Greek problems here to stay warns tax chief

The government of prime minister Alexis Tsipras has been locked in a duel with creditors over two key issues: a new insolvency law for home confiscations, and revamping the way the country's banks are run.

Eurozone finance ministers, meeting in Brussels on Monday, warned the stumbling blocks could also threaten the process of rehabilitating Greece's battered financial system.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...e-beckons.html

Sirius 10-11-2015 12:20

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35807123)
Just in case anyone thought this was all over:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...e-beckons.html

They will get it, the EU has no other option other than the financial collapse of Greece and all that entails for the EU gravy train.

Chris 10-11-2015 15:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Some posts moved.

Please remember that discussion of the referendum has its very own thread here:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/20...eferendum.html

Chris 13-11-2015 09:40

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Another post moved.

PLEASE STOP POSTING ABOUT THE NEGOTIATIONS/REFERENDUM IN HERE.

The referendum has its own thread:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/20...eferendum.html

Osem 27-11-2015 16:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Is the European project failing apart?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34940241


Quote:

"We cannot," he said, "accommodate any more refugees in Europe, that's not possible.

"If we don't do that, the people will say, 'Enough of Europe.'"
Now who do you think said that? Nigel Farage or French Prime Minister Manuel Valls?

Osem 30-01-2016 12:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Are the Euro-worms turning?

Quote:

Italy's Prime Minister Matteo Renzi openly attacked German policies at a European Union summit on Friday, criticising Berlin's stance on banking, energy, migration and Greece.

The litany of complaints, in comments to reporters in Brussels, was a sign of how the crises confronting the 28-nation EU have deepened tensions between its members.

Italy, a frontline state in the migration crisis, has become increasingly frustrated with the bloc's response. It is also critical of new rules to increase the euro zone's financial stability, another area where Germany has played a prominent role.

"Portraying Germany as a lifesaver for the European economy is not a shared view," Renzi told a news conference. He raised concerns about the sale to German airport operator Fraport of 14 Greek regional airports in the first big privatisation by the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

Under pressure at home over the rescue of four small banks in which thousands of small Italian investors lost their savings, Renzi turned his fire on Germany's financial system with an unprecedented attack on its savings and cooperative banks.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-...0U126M20151218

There's a whole lot of resentment aimed at Germany for one reason or another...

Osem 12-07-2016 08:46

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Just in case anyone out there's still labouring under the impression that the EU is a nice worry free place to be:

Quote:

The IMF has warned that Italy faces two decades of stagnant economic growth.
Its latest report on the country puts growth this year at under 1%, down from its previous 1.1% estimate, and forecasts growth in 2017 of about 1% - down from a 1.25% estimate.
The IMF says Italy will not reach pre-crisis levels until 2025, by which time its neighbours will have economies 20-25% above 2008 levels.
Italy is the third largest eurozone country.
It has 11% unemployment and a banking sector in crisis, with government debt second only to that of Greece.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36770311

We're certainly not isolated from the fallout but better off as far out of the EU as possible I reckon. There's plenty more bad news on the way from that direction and we need to concentrate on developing trade elsewhere.

Quote:

Italy's banks are the latest trouble spot for the eurozone.
They are struggling with a burden of bad debt, loans that are unlikely ever to be repaid fully.
They are a potential flashpoint in an economy that has for some time been seen as posing wider risks to the EU's currency area.
Meanwhile, the Italian government is considering a banking sector bailout which could breach European Union rules.
It's the size of the Italian economy and its government debt that makes the country a smouldering financial volcano. The risks are aggravated by the political situation.
It's the third-largest economy in the eurozone. The government debt burden, depending on which figures you look at, is certainly one of the largest in the eurozone, indeed the largest by one measure.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708357

RizzyKing 12-07-2016 14:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Now brexit is over the bad news will start coming through again the economic stability of the EU is not good and I'll bet as it gets worse more and more tensions will surface I give it five years tops before it falls apart.

Osem 12-07-2016 14:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35849456)
Now brexit is over the bad news will start coming through again the economic stability of the EU is not good and I'll bet as it gets worse more and more tensions will surface I give it five years tops before it falls apart.

I tend to agree. There's been precious little mainstream media coverage of what's going on in the EU for a while and you have to wonder why, given the decision we were asked to make. The fundamental problems of the EU/Eurozone remain and precious little seems to be being done.

Urgent reform is needed yet the combination of Merkel's strangelhold on things and the Euro-Egos in Brussels will probably ensure that nothing much happens any time soon. The longer this goes on, the bigger the crisis will be when it eventually comes to a head.

RizzyKing 12-07-2016 14:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Oh plenty is being done it's Xmas come early for the Germans they are asset stripping as much as they can in Greece and will do the same in Spain, Portugal and maybe Italy and I'm sure France will get in on the act before long. Not much being done to really help Greece but then if they got back on their feet things wouldn't be so cheap to buy your caring, sharing EU at work.

downquark1 12-07-2016 14:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35849462)
I tend to agree. There's been precious little mainstream media coverage of what's going on in the EU for a while and you have to wonder why, given the decision we were asked to make. The fundamental problems of the EU/Eurozone remain and precious little seems to be being done.

Urgent reform is needed yet the combination of Merkel's strangelhold on things and the Euro-Egos in Brussels will probably ensure that nothing much happens any time soon. The longer this goes on, the bigger the crisis will be when it eventually comes to a head.

Brexit has caused a revival of EU love in Europe. At least in the short term, so this may not happen.

Osem 12-07-2016 15:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 35849466)
Brexit has caused a revival of EU love in Europe. At least in the short term, so this may not happen.

EU love amongst the Eurocrats not so much the people. It won't be long before the tensions simmering away between Germany and the southern European countries in particular puts paid to that. The migration problem hasn't gone away, just shifted so I can't see an end to social unrest even if it isn't being reported.

It'd be so nice if Brexit focuses minds on what needs to be done within Europe but I seriously can't see it happening.

RizzyKing 12-07-2016 18:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Amongst many European citizens there is anything but a rekindling of love for the eu quite the opposite many now want the same vote we just had and more then a couple of countries given the vote would leave. The eu politicians are not even playing nice with each other and tensions are on the rise although most Brits could be forgiven for thinking it was all love and cocoa at bedtime during the referendum as all negative eu related things magically vanished from our screens.

Kursk 13-07-2016 00:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35849513)
".........most Brits could be forgiven for thinking it was all love and cocoa at bedtime during the referendum as all negative eu related things magically vanished from our screens.

Underestimating the public, in addition to lying, threatening and frightening them, was all part of the cocktail that caused the remain campaign to fail.

Ah well, we're all Leavers now so all's well that ends well :).

Osem 14-07-2016 16:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Some interesting and rather worrying information and background on the state of Italy's banks and the dilemma its govt. faces.

Quote:

In the euro zone’s latest crisis, Italy is torn between saving the banks or saving its people
http://qz.com/728517/in-the-euro-zon...ng-its-people/

Osem 23-08-2016 00:22

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes things are going so well in Europe that the Germans are being told to stockpile emergency supplies of food and water :erm:

Quote:

For the first time since the Cold War the German government is advising citizens to stockpile food and water for use in a national emergency.
Some opposition MPs said the new civil defence concept, to go before ministers on Wednesday, was scaremongering.
Citizens are advised to store enough food to last them 10 days, because initially a disaster might put national emergency services beyond reach.
Five days' water - two litres (half a gallon) per person daily - is advised.
The German news website Frankfurter Allgemeine (FAZ) said the new concept was set out in a 69-page German Interior Ministry document.
The document said "an attack on German territory, requiring conventional defence of the nation, is unlikely". But, it said, a major security threat to the nation in future could not be ruled out, so civil defence measures were necessary.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37155060

If it happens it'll be Brexit's fault I'm sure... :D

Mr K 23-08-2016 12:20

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35855382)
Yes things are going so well in Europe that the Germans are being told to stockpile emergency supplies of food and water :erm:

They are obviously preparing to invade Poland. Poland's invaded everywhere else, lets face it...

Osem 23-08-2016 15:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Things aren't getting any better in Greece, quite the reverse in fact:

Quote:

A year after the crisis was declared over, Greece is still spiralling down
https://www.theguardian.com/business...-declared-over

Quote:

Against a backdrop of monumental debt – €320bn, or 180% of GDP, the accumulation of decades of profligacy – fatalism is fast replacing pessimism on the streets. “Our country is doomed,” sighs Savvas Tzironis, summing up the mood. “Everything goes from bad to worse.”

Close to half a million Greeks are believed to have migrated since the crisis begun, thanks to the searing effect of persistent unemployment (at just under 24%, the highest in Europe) and an economy that has shed more than a third of its total output over the past six years. The nation has been assigned some €326bn in bailout loans since May 2010 – the biggest rescue programme in global financial history. Yet the fear that it is locked in an economic death spiral was given further credence last week when Eurobank analysts announced that consumption and exports had also fallen, by 6.4% and 7.2%, in the second quarter of the year.

The duration and depth of the recession is such that the World Bank now compares it to the slumps seen in eastern European countries in the early 1990s. The poorest 20% of Greece’s 11 million people have suffered a 42% drop in disposable income since 2009.
All good then...

nomadking 23-08-2016 15:47

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35855460)
Things aren't getting any better in Greece, quite the reverse in fact:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-declared-over

All good then...

The Guardian finally admitting the true cause.
Quote:

the accumulation of decades of profligacy

Chris 23-08-2016 18:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35855461)
The Guardian finally admitting the true cause.

On the contrary.

It's true that Southern European countries are prone to irresponsible spending. Previously, however, they were able to devalue their currency and carry on. Their money was worth little beyond their borders, but provided they could produce most of what they needed domestically, the internal economy could keep ticking over.

The massive elephant in the guardian newsroom is of course the Euro, which makes the usual club med devaluation strategy impossible.

In fact, impoverishing the populace is quite deliberate - it is an attempt to replicate the effects of devaluing the currency, without actually devaluing it. It's called "internal devaluation". Greece has been sacrificed on the altar of the single currency.

Osem 23-08-2016 18:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes decades of it - institutionalised. All the more reason that Greece should never have been admitted to the Euro-club, then it could have sunk or swum according to it's own decisions. As it is, tied to the Euro...

RizzyKing 23-08-2016 22:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well greece is not likely to be the last one flushed down the EU toilet for the sake of the euro so they will have company soon.

Osem 23-08-2016 22:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I quite agree. The Eurocrats are doing their version of rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic IMHO.

Osem 17-09-2016 19:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Tens of thousands of people have been protesting in cities across Germany against a proposed transatlantic trade deal between the EU and the US.
Protesters say the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will lower European standards on food and environmental protection, and could lead to outsourcing and job-losses.
Supporters of the deal say it promises to lower tariffs and promote growth.
The demonstrators are also protesting against a similar deal with Canada.
There were large crowds carrying flags and banners in seven German cities, including Berlin, Munich, Hamburg and Frankfurt, all braving cool and wet weather.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37396796

Let's hope someone in Brussels listens to them. That'd make a nice change eh?...

martyh 17-09-2016 19:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35859572)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37396796

Let's hope someone in Brussels listens to them. That'd make a nice change eh?...

They won't

Taf 17-09-2016 20:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

A group of Central European EU members known as the Visegrad Four is ready to veto any Brexit deal that would limit people's right to work in the UK, Slovakian PM Robert Fico says.
In an interview with the Reuters news agency, Mr Fico said Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia would be uncompromising in negotiations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37396805

Maybe it's because they don't want the Roma back?

Osem 17-09-2016 20:25

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
They don't want their share of migrants either but I'm not sure they'll get their way. Merkel won't a mini-clique determining her policy for the EU.

In any event nobody seriously starts any negotiation by acquiescing in advance.

ntluser 17-09-2016 21:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I wonder if they are going to insist that the US complies with the freedom of movement requirement in order to get a trade deal.

nomadking 17-09-2016 21:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Deals are meant to be a 2-way thing. As the EU is demanding so much from us, perhaps we should demand money from the EU in exchange for easier access to our markets. That might shut them up.

TheDaddy 05-10-2016 06:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Protests turn nasty in Greece. Thousands of pensioners took to the streets and the police responded with tear gas and baton charges, not to be out done the olds responded in turn by trying to tip a riot van over, many backs and hips were put out in the process

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-riot-van.html

Osem 05-10-2016 10:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35859586)
Deals are meant to be a 2-way thing. As the EU is demanding so much from us, perhaps we should demand money from the EU in exchange for easier access to our markets. That might shut them up.

The EU is used to telling member states what to do, that coupled with their intransigence and is the reason we are where we are. It's right that we should be making demands of our own and they'll just have to live with that. If we can't agree then there'll be a price to pay for them. The outcome will be what it is but the initial economic price, if indeed there is one, has to be seen against the whole and what the UK makes of the new opportunities it finds. As time goes on and the Eurozone's troubles become more apparent again, the decision to get out will look increasingly good IMHO.

I think in all the melee surrounding the referendum result a lot of folk have lost sight of the huge problems the Eurozone has stored up for itself. They're still present and the Deutsche Bank situation is just one manifestation of what lies ahead.

Mr K 05-10-2016 13:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Salivating at the prospect of the Eurozone collapsing is Europhobia in the extreme. It would badly affect this country aswell (Brexit or no Brexit).

pip08456 05-10-2016 15:19

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35861890)
Salivating at the prospect of the Eurozone collapsing is Europhobia in the extreme. It would badly affect this country aswell (Brexit or no Brexit).

The fact is it will happen like it or not. Add to that those slagging off May for saying we will be having a hard Brexit does not make our bargaining postition worse, in fact quite the opposite.

The EU exports more to us than we do to them, We will be free to source elsewhere, they will have to sell elsewhere unless they are willing to do a deal. If the EU want to write off those exports then hey-ho let them get on with it.

Osem 05-10-2016 16:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I missed this when on our hols but:

Quote:

Eurozone woes continue as German exports plunge and French industry deteriorates

German exports fell at the fastest pace in more than a year in July as French industrial production shrank for a third straight month, fuelling fears of a wider eurozone slowdown.

Exports in Germany fell 2.6pc in July compared with June, according to Destatis. This was the biggest fall since August 2015, and compares with expectations for a 0.4pc rise.

The decline was driven by a drop in sales outside the EU, including China and the US, while demand from the UK also fell. June's month-on-month rise of 0.3pc was also revised down to 0.2pc.

Separate data showed French industrial production declined by 0.6pc in July on a monthly basis.

Analysts had expected French production to bounce back following declines in May and June when activity was hit by strike action.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-french-indus/

Oh dear, things not so good over there yet then...

---------- Post added at 14:49 ---------- Previous post was at 14:41 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35861919)
The fact is it will happen like it or not. Add to that those slagging off May for saying we will be having a hard Brexit does not make our bargaining postition worse, in fact quite the opposite.

The EU exports more to us than we do to them, We will be free to source elsewhere, they will have to sell elsewhere unless they are willing to do a deal. If the EU want to write off those exports then hey-ho let them get on with it.

Yes :tu:

As for 'salivating' about Eurozone collapse? What utter tosh! I for one would much rather they'd seen the light and reformed but not a chance of that even in the face of Brexit.

Nobody's 'salivating' simply pointing out what's happening just across the water is perfectly legitimate especially since, it already has and will continue to affect the UK adversely, even moreso if we're still shackled to the sinking ship.

Rather than attacking the messengers, maybe it'd be more useful for some people to focus on the flawed EU ideology, political dogma, mismanagement and utter intransigence which has led the Eurozone into this crisis and shows no sign of abating. So much easier to ignore all that and resort to the usual insults though eh? Standard fare for those who can't argue their case... :rolleyes:

---------- Post added at 15:07 ---------- Previous post was at 14:49 ----------

Then there's this still simmering away nicely:

Quote:


Greece is facing another bailout standoff with its creditors amid reports that eurozone countries will refuse to release additional funds to it this month.

Athens has frustrated its peers in the single currency by implementing only two of the 15 reforms that were a condition of last year’s rescue package. EU officials told German daily Handelsblatt that Greece has delayed privatising state assets, adding to the frustrations of eurozone finance ministers who will discuss progress on Friday.

Further funds are due to be disbursed under the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will give Greece up to €86bn (£72bn) of financial assistance by 2018 in return for reforms.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...impose-reforms

Ignitionnet 05-10-2016 17:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35861919)
The fact is it will happen like it or not. Add to that those slagging off May for saying we will be having a hard Brexit does not make our bargaining postition worse, in fact quite the opposite.

The EU exports more to us than we do to them, We will be free to source elsewhere, they will have to sell elsewhere unless they are willing to do a deal. If the EU want to write off those exports then hey-ho let them get on with it.

Even in case of a 'soft' Brexit we'd be free to source elsewhere.

While it seems some people on here are incapable of grasping this extremely simple concept I'll reiterate that membership of the Single Market as part of the European Economic Area does not mean membership of the Customs Union, so tariffs, trade policies, etc, become a UK competency.

May have some fun sourcing elsewhere though given the day after we leave we'll almost certainly have free trade agreements with no-one and can have tariff-free trade with no-one, while the EU have 53 free trade agreements they can sell through.

The export thing has been done to death but repeating yet again they are over 40% of our exports, we are 10% of theirs

So if you're fine with our writing off 40% of our exports then hey-ho let's get on with it.

You may dogmatically be desperate for a hard Brexit given you've apparently loathed the EU my entire lifetime, those of who are aren't retired or nearly retired would appreciate the opportunity to keep our jobs.

When even that huge fan of the EU Arron Banks prefers EEA membership over a hard Brexit it should give you some idea of just how extreme that view is. Bizarre that it seems to be the direction now.

---------- Post added at 16:23 ---------- Previous post was at 16:09 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35861928)
Rather than attacking the messengers, maybe it'd be more useful for some people to focus on the flawed EU ideology, political dogma, mismanagement and utter intransigence which has led the Eurozone into this crisis and shows no sign of abating. So much easier to ignore all that and resort to the usual insults though eh? Standard fare for those who can't argue their case... :rolleyes:

Says the guy who has me on ignore because he can't argue his case. Keep rolling with that virtue signalling.

Many of those who wanted to remain in the EU entirely appreciated it had major issues and wanted to try and resolve them from within. That well known Neocon Yanis Varoufakis gave a talk about it. I loathed and continue to loathe the manner in which they treated Greece and think they have a whole collection of things they have done wrong, Merkel's handling of refugees being one.

I appreciate far easier to just go with the black and white view Brexiteers good, 'Remoaners' bad though.

pip08456 05-10-2016 20:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35861961)
The export thing has been done to death but repeating yet again they are over 40% of our exports, we are 10% of theirs.

You keep pressing this 40% 10% argument ad nauseum.

We export about £220 billion in goods and sercives to the other 27 EU member states but import about £290 billion from them.

You speak of the EU as a whole yet there are EU states that import more form us than they export to us.

Conversly there are those who export more to us and who is the biggest one? Surprise, surprise it's that powerhouse of Europe Germany. Try telling them that they'll only lose 10% of their exports if a deal isn't done. Spain, Belgium, France, Italy and Poland are only a little behind.

That is 6 member states that have a lot to lose and it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP. So yes, if they don't want to deal then hey-ho bye bye.

I presume you will accept a graph published by the ONT in 2015 as proof.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/10/21.png

RizzyKing 05-10-2016 21:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Resolve them how i keep hearing how we should have stayed in reformed from within but no one has come up with a practical how we'd have done that given the EU has shown zero interest in reforming even after the UK votes to leave still not a hint of meaningful reform. The EU has one goal and only oneway to get there and if you don't agree with it tough because there's only oneway how do you even start to attempt reform when that's the attitude.

When the EU collapses because it is a case of when not if it won't be celebrated anywhere as a great many people will suffer because of it and if I'd honestly believed the EU was prepared to reform and adapt to the world we're in I'd have voted remain as i think many others would have. We've had this whole "reform from within" for twenty years and nothing has come from it no changes the progression has continued exactly as the EU always intended.

Voting for brexit wasn't ideal far from it but of the two options it was better then continued membership of a broken organisation completely out of touch with it's citizens. There will be tough times ahead economically although i don't think they will be as tough as some predict and on the day we formally leave the EU some are going to be surprised at the trade deals that will come into play and the opportunities we have available to us.

Ramrod 05-10-2016 22:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The EU has no interest in reforming. That isn't in it's DNA. It simply can do that.
It's all or nothing.

Ignitionnet 05-10-2016 22:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35861999)
You keep pressing this 40% 10% argument ad nauseum.

We export about £220 billion in goods and sercives to the other 27 EU member states but import about £290 billion from them.

You speak of the EU as a whole yet there are EU states that import more form us than they export to us.

Conversly there are those who export more to us and who is the biggest one? Surprise, surprise it's that powerhouse of Europe Germany. Try telling them that they'll only lose 10% of their exports if a deal isn't done. Spain, Belgium, France, Italy and Poland are only a little behind.

That is 6 member states that have a lot to lose and it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP. So yes, if they don't want to deal then hey-ho bye bye.

I do mention them as a group because they are. All 27 member states have to agree to any deal with us, they all have veto.

You are correct when you mention that it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP, so thanks for making that point for me. We're about 7.5% of Germany's total exports, and while their consumption is somewhat low Germans actually do have a domestic economy. The £27 billion surplus they ran with us in trade in 2015 was less than 1.5% of their economy.

The £12 billion Spain ran in surplus about 1.5% of GDP. Belgium's surplus 2.5% of GDP, France's not even 1%.

Exports to us are 3-4% of EU-27s economy. Our exports to them are 12% of our economy. Their economy is considerably larger.

Germany are quite aware of the consequences and seem quite willing to take them, both politicians and trade bodies as they fear the longer term consequences would be far more harmful than a loss of some, it obviously wouldn't be all, trade.

Thankfully it looks like the government, behind the rhetoric, is more pragmatic.

Quote:

But the claim was strongly denied by Mrs May’s allies. Several ministers told the Financial Times that a transitional trade deal was likely to be a key part of Brexit negotiations that begin next year.

One option being considered is that Britain might continue to pay into EU coffers as an entry fee to the single market during the interim period, pending agreement and ratification of a new trade deal.
We may actually end up running a bigger trade deficit with the EU when all is said and done - a trade deal is likely at least initially to include goods only, not services. We run a >£20 billion a year surplus with the EU on services.

---------- Post added at 21:59 ---------- Previous post was at 21:56 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35862006)
The EU has no interest in reforming. That isn't in it's DNA. It simply can do that.
It's all or nothing.

It's a painfully bloated and slow beast, as is predictable with 27 member states all with their own agendas, but it looks as though some movement is happening. Overdue and well needed, too. They've kicked the can down the road to the point where the problems are existential.

martyh 05-10-2016 23:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35862002)
Resolve them how i keep hearing how we should have stayed in reformed from within but no one has come up with a practical how we'd have done that given the EU has shown zero interest in reforming even after the UK votes to leave still not a hint of meaningful reform. The EU has one goal and only oneway to get there and if you don't agree with it tough because there's only oneway how do you even start to attempt reform when that's the attitude.

When the EU collapses because it is a case of when not if it won't be celebrated anywhere as a great many people will suffer because of it and if I'd honestly believed the EU was prepared to reform and adapt to the world we're in I'd have voted remain as i think many others would have. We've had this whole "reform from within" for twenty years and nothing has come from it no changes the progression has continued exactly as the EU always intended.

Voting for brexit wasn't ideal far from it but of the two options it was better then continued membership of a broken organisation completely out of touch with it's citizens. There will be tough times ahead economically although i don't think they will be as tough as some predict and on the day we formally leave the EU some are going to be surprised at the trade deals that will come into play and the opportunities we have available to us.

If the EU is such a fantastic club to be in why are so many countries bankrupt with ever increasing unemployment .If the single market is so brilliant why has our trade to the EU fell year on year since we joined it .It's obvious that the EU does not work for the UK ,it never has .Since we joined the old EEC it has been a fight with Brussels all the way .
We should have listened to France back in the 60's when they vetoed our application to join

Ignitionnet 05-10-2016 23:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862030)
We should have listened to France back in the 60's when they vetoed our application to join

Agreed. We never committed to it properly and were every bit as obstructive of the rest of the EU as we perceived they were of us.

RizzyKing 06-10-2016 00:14

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I didn't say the EU was a great club nor have i ever stated that and i think you took my post the wrong way i in no way support what the EU has become or the way it conducts itself. I actually believe that the EU is more of a threat to peace then a gaurantor of it and the continued push to expand the EU is dangerous and reckless.

There is no doubt in my mind that the UK will end up significantly more prosperous eventually but there is going to be a period of economic adjustment and harder financial times ahead for many of us. Remaining part of the EU in it's current form wasn't an option for me and the prospect of a united european state in the future definately not something I'd ever consider acceptable. Though the chances of the EU surviving long enough to accomplish that now is highly unlikely i doubt very much that the EU will survive the next twenty years.

martyh 06-10-2016 08:04

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35862044)
I didn't say the EU was a great club nor have i ever stated that and i think you took my post the wrong way i in no way support what the EU has become or the way it conducts itself. I actually believe that the EU is more of a threat to peace then a gaurantor of it and the continued push to expand the EU is dangerous and reckless.

There is no doubt in my mind that the UK will end up significantly more prosperous eventually but there is going to be a period of economic adjustment and harder financial times ahead for many of us. Remaining part of the EU in it's current form wasn't an option for me and the prospect of a united european state in the future definately not something I'd ever consider acceptable. Though the chances of the EU surviving long enough to accomplish that now is highly unlikely i doubt very much that the EU will survive the next twenty years.

Apologies Rizzy ,my bad ,i am actually agreeing with you but reading it back i can see how it could be mis interpreted :tu:

---------- Post added at 07:04 ---------- Previous post was at 06:59 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35862032)
Agreed. We never committed to it properly and were every bit as obstructive of the rest of the EU as we perceived they were of us.

My god something we agree on ;) .The EU is something that must be fully committed to by all sides or it simply doesn't work ,opting out of various bits or demanding special concessions is pointless and very damaging to what should on paper be a good thing

Ignitionnet 06-10-2016 09:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862056)
My god something we agree on ;) .The EU is something that must be fully committed to by all sides or it simply doesn't work ,opting out of various bits or demanding special concessions is pointless and very damaging to what should on paper be a good thing

We agree because it's true with decades of evidence backing it up. I hold to my previous view that we shouldn't have moved from EFTA to EEC. I also still hold to the view that if we weren't already in we shouldn't join. :tu:

I was, however, intensely naive to impose that as a test or guide to our actions given our current position. That was a mistake, and a fundamental one.

Osem 06-10-2016 10:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35862006)
The EU has no interest in reforming. That isn't in it's DNA. It simply can do that.
It's all or nothing.

:tu:

They tinker around the edges and won't even acknowledge the major flaws in the 'one size fits all' Eurozone, let alone tackle them.

---------- Post added at 09:41 ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862030)
If the EU is such a fantastic club to be in why are so many countries bankrupt with ever increasing unemployment .If the single market is so brilliant why has our trade to the EU fell year on year since we joined it .It's obvious that the EU does not work for the UK ,it never has .Since we joined the old EEC it has been a fight with Brussels all the way .
We should have listened to France back in the 60's when they vetoed our application to join

Yes, the Eurozone is so fantastic that over the last decade and more, huge numbers of Brits have been steadily heading there with nobody wanting to come here...

Still, to be fair, it's not as though the likes of France, Italy, Spain and Germany are having problems is it? Thankfully it's just insignificant minnows like Greece and Portugal who're in trouble and there's no risk of serious contagion at all...

:rolleyes:

Yes the EU could and should have been a very good thing so just what does it say about those who've run it that they've created a basket case and refuse to accept that even now? With different leadership, a more pragmatic approach and a far more cautious approach to expansion a great many of the problems could have been avoided and we'd all have reaped the benefits.

---------- Post added at 09:48 ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35862044)
I didn't say the EU was a great club nor have i ever stated that and i think you took my post the wrong way i in no way support what the EU has become or the way it conducts itself. I actually believe that the EU is more of a threat to peace then a gaurantor of it and the continued push to expand the EU is dangerous and reckless.

There is no doubt in my mind that the UK will end up significantly more prosperous eventually but there is going to be a period of economic adjustment and harder financial times ahead for many of us. Remaining part of the EU in it's current form wasn't an option for me and the prospect of a united european state in the future definately not something I'd ever consider acceptable. Though the chances of the EU surviving long enough to accomplish that now is highly unlikely i doubt very much that the EU will survive the next twenty years.

:tu:

Ignitionnet 06-10-2016 12:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
In some positive news Deutche Bank's worries seem to be abating a bit, and Citigroup have upgraded Eurozone banks generally.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-treasury-war/

Osem 11-10-2016 12:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Appalling austerity and unemployment in parts of the EU are not the EU's fault. Please discuss...

mrmistoffelees 11-10-2016 12:49

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35862962)
Appalling austerity and unemployment in parts of the EU are not the EU's fault. Please discuss...

Nice try,

Your original post

up, it's not as though the EU is currently a model for success is it. It's lurched from groteseque wine lakes and butter mountains to appalling austerity, huge unemployment,

Osem 11-10-2016 14:09

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Nice try?

I know what I've written. It's called putting the ball in your court. ;)

In the Post Brexit thread you asked me why certain problems were the fault of the EU and I've replied there and referred you here so you can find/read my views in more detail if you so wish. I'm now (via the post you quoted above) inviting some meaningful comment from you on why you feel the EU's policies aren't to blame for the problems I cited because you seem to disagree with my sentiments. If you don't wish to discuss it that's fine but I was expecting something other than questions from you at this point.

mrmistoffelees 12-10-2016 10:50

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35862982)
Nice try?

I know what I've written. It's called putting the ball in your court. ;)

In the Post Brexit thread you asked me why certain problems were the fault of the EU and I've replied there and referred you here so you can find/read my views in more detail if you so wish. I'm now (via the post you quoted above) inviting some meaningful comment from you on why you feel the EU's policies aren't to blame for the problems I cited because you seem to disagree with my sentiments. If you don't wish to discuss it that's fine but I was expecting something other than questions from you at this point.

No, what you did was take the original post, misquote and then not post your corrected post.

I digress... To come up with some relevant questions and/or debate give me a while to read through the thread and we can pick up and discuss

Osem 12-10-2016 11:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 35863138)
No, what you did was take the original post, misquote and then not post your corrected post.

I digress... To come up with some relevant questions and/or debate give me a while to read through the thread and we can pick up and discuss

I'm sorry, I obviously gave you more credit than was due for being able to follow what was a fairly simple task, albeit with a slight twist due to an addition to my first post which I made as a result of your original reply to it. I thought it clarified matters, in fact it confused you but I thought we'd successfully moved on from there. C'est la vie...

Your view of discussing things seems to involve posing questions without answering any as you've just done again with Martyh in the post Brexit thread. Forgive me if I decline to carry on with that sort of 'discussion'. What I think about the EU's problems is here in some detail, you can disagree as much as you like (we're all entitled to do that) but it's now up to do a lot more than just disagree with opinions and pose questions. How about you come up with the evidence which supports your apparent view that the appalling unemployment and austerity in Europe aren't the fault of the EU for a change? That's why I posted this:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...postcount=1892

Remember?

Good luck with that anyway. ;)

Ignitionnet 18-10-2016 10:25

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Euro 'house of cards' to collapse, warns ECB prophet

Quote:

The European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of the monetary union has warned.

"One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency.
Timely warning about the dangers of politicising central banking. Rules should've been upheld both when Greece and others breached them in one direction and Germany in the other. Needs fixing, the risks are existential.

Osem 16-11-2016 11:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Just in case anyone was thinking that things are so much better over there:

Quote:

The European Commission will on Wednesday tell eight national governments from the eurozone, including Italy, that their national budgets are “at risk of non compliance” with the EU’s budget rules, Commission sources involved in the decision process told POLITICO. Besides Italy, these countries are Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Finland, Slovenia, Cyprus and Lithuania.
http://www.politico.eu/article/italy...budget-hammer/

Brexit is a big deal fraught with risks and difficulties but let's not forget what we're trying to detach ourselves from eh.

1andrew1 24-11-2016 00:14

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35261471)
£3.3 billion, to be accurate, of which £2.4 billion was lost profit of not keeping enough foreign currency reserves to profit on Sterlings devaluation.

All down to Norm Lamont....

Looks like small change now compared to the independently-costed Brexit costs!

Osem 24-11-2016 11:08

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Looks like even smaller change compared to the scale of the problems inherent within the European banking system which are simmering away quite nicely.

1andrew1 24-11-2016 11:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35871424)
Looks like even smaller change compared to the scale of the problems inherent within the European banking system which are simmering away quite nicely.

The Eurozone seems to defy gravity and carry on. The banks are a bit of an unknown.

heero_yuy 24-11-2016 17:09

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35871427)
The Eurozone seems to defy gravity and carry on.

They're in that Wiley Coyote moment: The legs are still running but yet to notice the ground has gone and gravity is about to take over.

Osem 24-11-2016 19:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35871427)
The Eurozone seems to defy gravity and carry on. The banks are a bit of an unknown.

The only unknown is how bad it's going to get and right now Brexit has conveniently taken the focus off the EU's other fundamental problems.

Mick 24-11-2016 21:56

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35871495)
The only unknown is how bad it's going to get and right now Brexit has conveniently taken the focus off the EU's other fundamental problems.

:clap: Could not have said it any better. The EU is a ticking time bomb, failure of the project is practically a dead cert, whether we had stayed in it or not.

Osem 15-12-2016 22:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

The Greek parliament has defied the international creditors providing Athens' bailout funds and voted through a one-off payment to pensioners.
Plans for the €617m (£517m; $656m) pre-Christmas handout were opposed by European bodies negotiating Greece's financial lifeline.
A deal agreed earlier this month to provide the next tranche of debt relief for Athens is now on hold.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said Greece would not be blackmailed.
Athens said the pension payment would come out of a €1bn tax surplus but European creditors on Thursday said the Greek move raised "significant concerns on both process and substance" regarding the country's bailout obligations.
In a joint statement, representatives from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the European rescue fund said they would now decide whether to uphold a Eurogroup decision granting Greece short-term debt relief earlier this month.
Mr Tsipras said the situation had to be resolved "without blackmail" on the part of Greece's creditors.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38336423

heero_yuy 16-12-2016 10:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Meaning they dare not continue to bail out Greece because otherwise it would mean their beloved Euro would go down the pan. On that basis Greece can do what it likes.

Osem 16-12-2016 11:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes and some folks still want us further shackled to this mess. How very weird... :spin:

OLD BOY 17-12-2016 12:37

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35875995)

Typical left wing attitude. Spend, spend, spend, and don't worry how we will feed ourselves tomorrow.

Greece deserves all it's going to get, I'm afraid. Thank heavens we will not have to cough up.

1andrew1 17-12-2016 12:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35261123)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13839381

I seem to recall quite a few pronouncements Jack Straw made which didn't come to pass but is he right about this?

Five years on and the Eurozone seems no closer to collapse.
I used to believe it would but now I'm just wondering if it's all anti-EU spin. Yes, Germany has helped Greece financially but Germany gains from a weak Euro.

OLD BOY 17-12-2016 13:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35876198)
Five years on and the Eurozone seems no closer to collapse.
I used to believe it would but now I'm just wondering if it's all anti-EU spin. Yes, Germany has helped Greece financially but Germany gains from a weak Euro.

The euro will never work until such time as all the participating countries come together as a new federal Europe.

You can't have different countries pursuing different economic and fiscal policies that impact on a common currency.

The EU is a mish mash bureaucracy that stifles business and innovation. It will ultimately implode and we will be fortunate indeed to have extracated ourselves from all parts of this mad European project.

It could be made to work, of course, but the Eurocrats simply don't have a clue.

1andrew1 17-12-2016 13:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35876206)
The euro will never work until such time as all the participating countries come together as a new federal Europe.

You can't have different countries pursuing different economic and fiscal policies that impact on a common currency.

The EU is a mish mash bureaucracy that stifles business and innovation. It will ultimately implode and we will be fortunate indeed to have extracated ourselves from all parts of this mad European project.

It could be made to work, of course, but the Eurocrats simply don't have a clue.

The Euro's been going 20 years and survived the 2007/8 General Financial Crisis so we can't pretend it doesn't work. Despite how illogical it may all seem when viewed from Blighty.

Osem 17-12-2016 13:46

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35876210)
The Euro's been going 20 years and survived the 2007/8 General Financial Crisis so we can't pretend it doesn't work. Despite how illogical it may all seem when viewed from Blighty.

It's 'working' a whole lot better for the Germans than the Greeks. As has been stated, what doesn't 'work' is the single size fits all economic policy which accompanies it and can't reconcile the major differences between the northern and southern EU states in particular.

OLD BOY 17-12-2016 14:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35876210)
The Euro's been going 20 years and survived the 2007/8 General Financial Crisis so we can't pretend it doesn't work. Despite how illogical it may all seem when viewed from Blighty.

I know what you mean, Andrew, but it doesn't work as it should and the whole set up is extremely fragile. The Greek crisis is a symptom of this, and don't forget that Spain, Portugal and Italy came pretty close to the brink - in fact, Italy is nowhere near out of the woods yet.

Sooner or later, the EU will either have to admit defeat or go federal, IMHO.

nomadking 17-12-2016 15:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35876216)
I know what you mean, Andrew, but it doesn't work as it should and the whole set up is extremely fragile. The Greek crisis is a symptom of this, and don't forget that Spain, Portugal and Italy came pretty close to the brink - in fact, Italy is nowhere near out of the woods yet.

Sooner or later, the EU will either have to admit defeat or go federal, IMHO.

All the EU and the Euro has done is give those countries a sense of invincibility. They could recklessly borrow and spend all with relative impunity. All that "going federal" would have done is limit that spending. It couldn't improve their lot other than by doing what those countries could have easily done for themselves. Eg it was the Greeks themselves allowed so much tax evasion, not the EU.

Osem 17-12-2016 16:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This from a couple of months ago:

Quote:

The European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of the monetary union has warned.

"One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...s-ecb-prophet/

Quote:

The European Central Bank is on a "slippery slope" and has in his view fatally compromised the system by bailing out bankrupt states in palpable violation of the treaties.

"The Stability and Growth Pact has more or less failed. Market discipline is done away with by ECB interventions. So there is no fiscal control mechanism from markets or politics. This has all the elements to bring disaster for monetary union.

"The no bailout clause is violated every day," he said, dismissing the European Court's approval for bailout measures as simple-minded and ideological...

... Prof Issing slammed the first Greek rescue in 2010 as little more than a bailout for German and French banks, insisting that it would have been far better to eject Greece from the euro as a salutary lesson for all. The Greeks should have been offered generous support, but only after it had restored exchange rate viability by returning to the drachma.

OLD BOY 17-12-2016 20:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35876228)
All the EU and the Euro has done is give those countries a sense of invincibility. They could recklessly borrow and spend all with relative impunity. All that "going federal" would have done is limit that spending. It couldn't improve their lot other than by doing what those countries could have easily done for themselves. Eg it was the Greeks themselves allowed so much tax evasion, not the EU.

Yes, but if Greece became a state within a United States of Europe, the politicians there would have to follow the dictats of the central Government.

nomadking 17-12-2016 20:40

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35876272)
Yes, but if Greece became a state within a United States of Europe, the politicians there would have to follow the dictats of the central Government.

So what is it the EU could do, even by dictat, that Greeks couldn't have done for themselves? Their choice, so they should face the consequences.

figgyburn 17-12-2016 20:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
All they do is continually raise the debt ceiling,quantative easing, a.k.a.producing money out of thin air.The whole banking system is a giant ponzi scheme.Does any sane person actually think that that our/eu/usa debts will ever be brought down to balance out?.As my late dad would say "not a snowballs chance in hell".

Osem 17-12-2016 21:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35876285)
So what is it the EU could do, even by dictat, that Greeks couldn't have done for themselves? Their choice, so they should face the consequences.

Given their obvious and endemic tax evasion, fiddling and living beyond their means, why were they ever allowed into the Euro-club I wonder? It seems to me that the relentless pursuit of a political pipe-dream blinded those who should have known better.

OLD BOY 18-12-2016 14:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35876285)
So what is it the EU could do, even by dictat, that Greeks couldn't have done for themselves? Their choice, so they should face the consequences.

Well, they wouldn't have that choice if they were answerable to a central Government, just as North American States are answerable to Washington.

The point is, they chose to spend money like there was no tomorrow, recklessly taking unfair advantage of getting into the EU. It was their choice, granted, but they should not have been able to exercise a choice which impacted so gravely on other EU members.

Without a federal Europe, this could happen all over again with any so-called 'anti austerity' government.

---------- Post added at 13:24 ---------- Previous post was at 13:22 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35876294)
Given their obvious and endemic tax evasion, fiddling and living beyond their means, why were they ever allowed into the Euro-club I wonder? It seems to me that the relentless pursuit of a political pipe-dream blinded those who should have known better.

Quite. This failure to see obvious consequences to decisions made is typical of the bureaucracy that is the EU.

Osem 18-12-2016 14:49

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35876398)
Well, they wouldn't have that choice if they were answerable to a central Government, just as North American States are answerable to Washington.

The point is, they chose to spend money like there was no tomorrow, recklessly taking unfair advantage of getting into the EU. It was their choice, granted, but they should not have been able to exercise a choice which impacted so gravely on other EU members.

Without a federal Europe, this could happen all over again with any so-called 'anti austerity' government.

---------- Post added at 13:24 ---------- Previous post was at 13:22 ----------


Quite. This failure to see obvious consequences to decisions made is typical of the bureaucracy that is the EU.

Odd that so many folks still seem to have more faith in these people than their own elected leaders who're at least replaceable if they get it wrong. It's quite bizarre... :shrug:

Osem 23-12-2016 10:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Italy's cabinet has approved a state-bailout for the country's third-largest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena.
Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni said his government had authorised a €20bn ($21bn; £17.9bn) fund to support Italy's embattled banking sector.
The announcement came after Monte dei Paschi failed to raise €5bn from private investors.
The Italian bank said it would request a capital injection from the state to stay afloat.
Under new EU rules on bank bailouts, the bailout will entail a forced conversion of the bank's junior bonds - many of which are held by small investors - into shares.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38412557

Debt bailing out debt it seems to me. Who's going to pay for it?

Osem 03-01-2017 22:36

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Italian lender Monte dei Paschi is facing a capital shortfall of €8.8bn (£7.5bn), higher than the €5bn previously estimated by the bank, the European Central Bank has said.
It comes after Italy approved a €20bn fund to prop up its embattled banking sector on 23 December.
Monte dei Paschi had asked for a capital injection to stay afloat.
It is carrying a mountain of bad loans made to customers who cannot afford to repay them.
In a statement from the bank on Monday, it confirmed it had officially asked the ECB to go ahead with a "precautionary recapitalisation".
This will entail a forced conversion of the bank's junior bonds - many of which are held by small investors - into shares.
'Deteriorated rapidly'
It also permits the government to buy shares or bonds on market terms endorsed by EU state aid officials.
In response, the ECB said it had calculated the capital it believed that the bank needed, based on an EU stress test of large lenders earlier this year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38442342

Quote:

Dr Andreas Hoepner, associate professor at the Henley Business School, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that trust in the bank, which now has a market capitalisation of less than €500m, had "deteriorated significantly".
He also questioned whether enough funds would be available to other struggling banks, given that Monte dei Paschi could use up almost half of the agreed €20bn support fund.
"We hope not too many other lenders will need support, but we don't know for sure," he said.
"The question is, is the €20bn the full sum or might the Italian government request more at a later stage?"
Yeah let's stay part of this club... :rolleyes:

1andrew1 03-01-2017 22:47

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35878987)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38442342

Yeah let's stay part of this club... :rolleyes:

We're not in the Eurozone, thanks to Gordon Brown. :D

pip08456 04-01-2017 02:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35878989)
We're not in the Eurozone, thanks to Gordon Brown. :D

So non of the expense of this corrupt, incompetent collection will land on our doorstep?

heero_yuy 04-01-2017 09:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35879026)
So non of the expense of this corrupt, incompetent collection will land on our doorstep?

You can bet that so long as we have to contribute to the EU they'll find some way of fleecing us to bail out the failing Euro project.:rolleyes:

Just another reason for a hard Brexit.

Chris 04-01-2017 10:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35879026)
So non of the expense of this corrupt, incompetent collection will land on our doorstep?

Indirectly, it does.

Not being entangled in the Euro has meant our economy has outperformed the EU. That has led to our budget contributions becoming relatively higher.

Osem 04-01-2017 11:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35878989)
We're not in the Eurozone, thanks to Gordon Brown. :D

Really? I didn't know that. When I went to bed last night I was certain my wallet was full of Euros not Sterling... :D

As has been stated many times here and elsewhere in the forum, the UK will be always be affected badly by any collapse of the Eurozone but it'd be far worse if we were still in the EU at the time or had joined the Euro as so many so called 'experts' told us we should so.

We're not in the Schengen area either but the flawed ideology which led to its creation still adversely affects the UK directly and indirectly.

1andrew1 04-01-2017 12:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35879026)
So non of the expense of this corrupt, incompetent collection will land on our doorstep?

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by collection? At first I thought your feisty adjectives might be referring to Fifa. :)

Osem 31-01-2017 13:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

The eurozone must break up if its members are to thrive again, according to a former European Central Bank official.

Jürgen Stark, who served on the ECB’s executive board during the financial crisis, said it was time to “think the unthinkable” and work towards a “reset” of Europe that pulled power away from Brussels.

The former vice-president of Germany’s Bundesbank said the creation of a two-speed eurozone, with France and Germany at its core, would help to ensure the smaller bloc’s survival.

We have had divergence rather than convergence in the eurozone from the very beginning.

“We have to think the unthinkable. And it is already unthinkable to think about the restart of Europe, which means we have to be creative.

But in order to be creative, you have to destruct [sic] something.”

Mr Stark said countries such as Italy, which has seen its economy stagnate since the crisis, would be better off outside the single currency area.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-warns-former/

Mick 31-01-2017 13:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35883305)

As it stands and I have said this before. EU is not sustainable. There have been members of the 28 Countries, who just are not paying their fair share and there are some members just riding it through expecting other members to keep them afloat, while enjoying the so called EU benefits of being a member.

Stuart 31-01-2017 17:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35879048)
Indirectly, it does.

Not being entangled in the Euro has meant our economy has outperformed the EU. That has led to our budget contributions becoming relatively higher.

It's also worth noting that due to the way the money markets work, our economy may very well be affected by fluctuations in EU economies regardless of whether we are in or out of the EU.

We could profit, or we could lose.

Note: Although I voted remain, I hope our country prospers even after article 50 has been invoked, and once I looked into it, I never thought the Euro was a good thing. It required that countries tied their economies to Europe in a way I don't think is good for all of them.

Osem 31-01-2017 17:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Stuart (Post 35883336)
It's also worth noting that due to the way the money markets work, our economy may very well be affected by fluctuations in EU economies regardless of whether we are in or out of the EU.

We could profit, or we could lose.

Note: Although I voted remain, I hope our country prospers even after article 50 has been invoked, and once I looked into it, I never thought the Euro was a good thing. It required that countries tied their economies to Europe in a way I don't think is good for all of them.

We certainly won't be unaffected by a collapse of the Eurozone or disintegration of the EU but staying in wouldn't have prevented it. The longer they kick the can down the road, the worse the fallout will be. Better to do what the UK did and make a decision than to perennially fudge the issue and hope it goes away.

As it stands, from what I heard from a Brussels bureaucrat this morning, their plan B is more plan A... :rolleyes:

Quote:

"Rather than retreat and fracture, Europe should create a political and defence union, and unify its common market across more industries and service sectors, Mr Verhofstadt said."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...negotiatorguy/

Mick 16-03-2017 15:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Haven't we been here before?

http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-thr...lates-10803361

Turkey Threatens to scrap refugee deal as diplomatic row escalates over Netherlands spat.

Osem 16-03-2017 16:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Who'd have thought?! :rolleyes:

Just one of many massive problems facing the EU. The others haven't gone away...

Kursk 16-03-2017 17:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Ah, so the 'migrant deal' is the Sword of Damocles available every time Turkey isn't happy about something. What do the EU fanboys here feel about this way of doing business?

RizzyKing 16-03-2017 18:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Whenever the EU's issues are highlighted by events it's usual very vocal supporters go very quiet and aren't seen much until the next brexit disaster article appears then they reappear to tellus we'd have been better off remaining in the EU. I recently had a discussion with some business people most from the continent and was quite surprised how pessimistic they are about the EU's future but the one thing they all agreed on was that before the collapse there will be more dramatic integration tried to stave off many of the issue's.

Another thing that surprised me was how positive they were about brexit and the UK's future, i guess even though i don't buy into a lot of the pessimism in the media i did think the continent had a more uniformed negative take on brexit. Interesting times ahead with a period of both uncertainty and struggle but the more i hear people from the continent talk about the EU the more i realise that applies to both the UK and the EU.


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