Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

You assume that the imposition of tariffs by the EU would mean that we would still want to have those goods from the EU. What if we could get the same goods from the US, cheaper and with no tariffs?

I don't know the answer to this, but if we are making more from imposing tariffs on the EU, what's to stop us using that money to reduce nullify any price increase to the consumer?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Running the fifth, sixth or seventh (I lose track) biggest economy is somewhat more complex than crossing the road. The fact you view these as equitable simply proves my point that you only have a simplistic understanding of Government.

It may not be sufficient. You are simply assuming as such because it suits your ludicrous contention that Government can continue unaffected by Coronavirus.

Without knowing what the tariffs are and quantity of goods moving in each direction post Coronavirus it’s simply impossible for you to offer anything other than speculation as to who would lose out more by imposing tariffs. Again, your simplistic analysis ignores the associated supply chains - further goods and services, further people in employment and further tax revenues for Government. It’s not as straightforward as where the trade deficit lies.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Ahem! Who's speculating, exactly? The government still says it wants a deal by the end of the year. You are speculating when you say it's not long enough. My 'crossing the road' quip was drawing attention to the big deal you make of everything and then claim it can't be done. You have form on this where the EU is concerned. Look over all your negative Brexit poxts! Were you ever right?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I was right about the fact we wouldn’t leave in March and October and that the public would, through a further general election or a referendum have to endorse Brexit a further time. That happened.

You can try to regurgitate the same old tired debates Old Boy - and I’m entitled to view Brexit as a bad idea. A bad idea the public voted for doesn’t make it any less a bad idea. However that is the past and we’ve all (apart from you seemingly) moved into.

The Government does want a deal by the end of the year. I’d like a deal by the end of the year. You are equating that with what we should do if there isn’t, regardless of how close the negotiations are to success. With is a very flawed comparison.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Are you two married?

You argue like you are :D

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If there's no FTA, the EU will have to impose their WTO MFN rate on our exports to them and we will have to impose our WTO MFN rate on imports from them, the same as we do with the US now. To have no tariffs for imports from the US or anywhere else, we need an FTA otherwise the MFN rate needs to be used.

In a lot of cases, we could 'shop around' for a cheaper deal if the cost plus duty is less than an import from the EU but this is 53% of our imports. The burden is huge.

We certainly could subsidise imports if we wanted. However, these would need to apply across the board and not just imports from the EU. If we decide that only certain countries imports are subsidised then WTO rules step in and our exports to countries not in the subsidy list can get slammed for additional duties (countervailing duties)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

:shocked: Looks like they have:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52208591
UK 'committed to post-Brexit trade deadline'

The chancellor is also asked whether it is a good time for the UK to leave the EU if the economy is going to be so damaged by the pandemic.
Rishi Sunak says: "We have left the European Union, that has happened, we are now working on the final terms of trading arrangements. That work is carrying on."
He says negotiating teams spoke earlier this week and would hold more talks this month and in May.
"We remain committed to the timeline for concluding talks and negotiations, albeit over video conference rather than in person," he adds.



Still not convinced?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Well, as I posted earlier They haven’t even agreed how they will video-conference, so, no...

The discussions next week are to discuss a timetable for talks in April and May - so it’s "talks about talks", not actual negotiations.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

No. To say now we're open to an extension virtually guarantees an extension and removes the sense of urgency that an optional extension is supposed to provide.

On top of that the messaging around any extension will need to be carefully planned. Considering the Government is asking the vast majority of people to stay at home, and the Coronavirus response requires compliance.

While I'm sure the vast majority of people would be reasonable it only takes a handful of morons whose nationalism tells them this is a betrayal to encourage civil disobedience or worse.

We've got folk setting fire to mobile telecoms infrastructure, mugging nurses and spitting at police officers saying they have Coronavirus. People are already anxious. If the Government are to request an extension, or agree to an EU request for one, I'm certain the revelation won't be because some hack threw it into a press conference to Rishi Sunak.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

They are currently at the document-exchanging stage. The government is still commited to the end of the year as things stand. Everything else is speculation.

---------- Post added at 18:17 ---------- Previous post was at 18:15 ----------

Still speculating against the government, I see. :rolleyes:

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Speculating for the Government Old Boy. You seem to, unfortunately, be stuck in the toxic rhetoric of Brexit. Which is a shame really - the way it seems to permeate every single post you make. It is unnecessarily divisive. Brexit is done. The national interest is the national interest for everyone - those who voted remain and those who voted leave.

You clearly know very little about Government if you think such a major policy shift would be announced at half five on a Wednesday night by a Cabinet Minister who is neither the PM, Foreign Secretary or Minister for International Trade for whom the policy would cross cut their Ministerial portfolios.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I rarely say this, but it’s well worth saying now: I agree with Jfman wholeheartedly on this point.

An extension to the transition would be a very significant move, following a decision taken by the PM and the EU representatives, and not flagged in advance for all sorts of reasons. It certainly isn’t going to be announced in a public health crisis press conference by a deputy while the Prime Minister is getting over a life-threatening infection in hospital.

An extension is not going to happen, right up to the moment that it is. At which point it will be announced on Boris Johnson’s terms. I believe the government negotiators will continue to work on the assumption that the original deadline stands, but informal contact with the EU on the extension issue will have been made. I also believe that when the extension is announced it will amount to 6-9 months.

There’s almost certainly going to be an extension because no government in Europe presently has the resources to meet the original deadline with a good trade deal in place. This is not a betrayal, it is just realpolitik, caused by the small matter of the worst global pandemic for a century.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

And I've agreed with a lot of Chris recent input on this. Indeed - the terms of how an extension got announced could be anything such as the EU asking the UK to agree to one in order to give Boris favourable optics. In the EU their respective populations are probably less interested in this, and it's an easy sell for them.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I would be surprised if there isn't an extension. There just isn't the appetite or time for people to focus on the next part of the agreement yet and the political cover is there too because aside from a few diehards I doubt anyone would be upset if it got delayed so the world can focus on the pandemic.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

If an extention is deemed necessary then so be it but Brexit isn't done until we conclude the transition.
Brexit is still very much "in progress".