Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I'm reading lots of sources that suggest Johnson will propose an extension period at the height of the crisis. It's neatly summarised by one business leader who asked the the Daily Telegraph’s Europe Editor, Peter Foster “am I supposed to be making ventilators or hiring customs agents?”

Here's one of those many sources suggesting an extension is on the books.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status...49409439436808

Will Johnson re-emerge from his CV-19 isolation to be a succesful leader of a nation in crisis and able to stand upto the likes of David Davis and Dominic Raab? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
I see three likely choices and rate them:
No extension (10% chance)
1-year extension (50% channce)
2-year extension (40% chance)

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Realistically, Johnson's illness and likely recuperation period makes an extension inevitable.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Boris has people who can continue negotiations according to his brief while he is out of action.

Don't get your hopes up.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Yes we've already seen the calibre of his people. Raab looks like a rabbit caught in the headlights, Gove the devil incarnate...

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

I guess that depends on how warped your perspective on things is, Mr K. The other lot would be in total disarray if they were in charge.

The government has got a good handle on this and they are making decisions in line with medical advice. Would you have them going against that advice?

They could do, I suppose, but there would be more casualties and the NHS would break. You can't go to the other extreme and lock everyone up because first of all, the public would not accept it, but also, the virus would simply get to us all when the restrictions were lifted. If you think it's a good idea to lock everyone up for 18 months, you are part of a very small minority.

---------- Post added at 15:35 ---------- Previous post was at 15:22 ----------

It's all speculation, though, isn't it? Certainly, Boris could turn this to his advantage and give the coronavirus as his reason to extend if he wanted to, and people by and large would accept that. But would he, though? To his mind, this is a straight forward matter and either the EU will give it to us (in line with EU interests), or they won't.

I guess we'll know soon enough, but it is important to be aware that video conferencing discussions have continued to take place with our counterparts in Brussells, so in reality, coronavirus is no real excuse for not getting on with it.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Old Boy when did you become a mind reader?

In your opinion Coronavirus, the greatest peacetime challenge since World War 2, is no excuse to not get on with... What exactly?

Where are the international trade agreements? Where's the strategy? Where's the plan? What EU laws are we going to bin? When?

Trade agreements don't take 11 years because both parties "either want one or they don't".

Also please reply without rehashing the Brexit debate all by yourself. We all want Brexit to succeed - we have left the EU and are in a timebound transition - I want you to tell me by the end of this year is better than the end of next.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

A wise decision, you were lucky to get back home early last time. I personally wouldn't be doing any unneccesary travel at the moment (even if I wasn't being shielded).

Also, as the Government have instructed us not to undertake any unneccesary travel and they don't know when these restrictions will end, could those who travel to an airport for a holiday in June fall foul of the law if these restrictions are still in place?

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Getting on with the trade deal...obviously.

Boris has other dedicated negotiators and planners dealing exclusively with the EU trade negotiations. I would remind you that both the EU and Britain want a no tariff trade deal. We can meet all of the EU standards for goods we export to them, and vice versa. That is one very good reason why we don't need seven or eleven years or more to negotiate it.

I am not rehashing a Brexit debate. I'm explaining that a trade deal does not have to be postponed because of coronavirus. As usual, you are putting forward problems which either don't exist, or at least are straight forward enough for the government to overcome.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Of course it doesn't have to postpone trade negotiations - but it does have to slow them down. You completely underestimate the extent of Civil Service wide resource being thrown into Coronavirus and the number of sectors that focus is on Coronavirus only. It's a matter of life and death to tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of our citizens.

I am absolutely flabbergasted that you claim Coronavirus "doesn't exist" or is "straight forward". How many people have to die, or who has to die, before you accept this isn't "just the flu".

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

The civil service has a finite capacity and much of it has been diverted into crisis planning. To the extent that all the functions of government should continue, then obviously transition planning and negotiations should continue. But it is absurd to believe that anything in government can carry on unaffected by the present crisis.

I would much prefer the transition to end at the end of the original agreed period. But I think there is a snowball's chance in hell of that actually happening now. We are, realistically, in for a 6-9 month extension.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Don't be ridiculous, jfman! Stop making things up. When did I say the coronavirus 'doesn't exist'? And yes, coronavirus is a type of flu, as was SARS. I'm not saying it is not serious either - what I have pointed out is that flu takes a great many lives each year as well and we seem not to panic about it, because we are used to that happening on a regular basis.

Yes, you are correct to say that there has been a large civil service resource being thrown into the coronavirus emergency, but there has also been a dedicated team set up just to deal with the trade deal with the EU. That being the case, and the fact that discussions are taking place by video instead of face to face in Brussels, there is no reason to delay the deadline for these talks.

Having said that, if Boris doesn't improve soon, that could indeed prompt a delay to the deadline.

Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
 

Flu and SARS are types of coronavirus, not the other way around, and COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus, which is the difference from flu - we have decades of dealing with flu viruses, just 3 months with this, so there is a huge difference in approach to dealing with it. We have flu inoculations, we don't have one for COVID-19 (and probably won't have for another year).