Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35842115)

Your statement is not based in fact...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/ne...ays-in-Europe/ You appear to be including our Bank Holidays, but not the European countries ones.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35842117)

If we leave aside our own biases and try to discuss this objectively what does everyone think the actual result will be and why?

As I said above I think that a combination of anti-establishment mood as well as a serious underestimation of the Leave vote in Northern Labour heartlands will win this for Leave. I can't explain why the polls aren't picking this up, and it may be apprehension talking, but the underlying questions in the polling are alarming for Remain. Only 1/3rd of the electorate think there will be any economic impact in Leaving for example whilst the vast majority think immigration will go down. 50% of Labour voters think Labour supports Leave. Most voters think EU immigration accounts for 15% of the population as opposed to 5%.

Essentially the Leave campaign is working. Despite the 50-50 in the polls most voters think Brexit will not hurt the economy but will reduce migration. If that's the case Remain is finished. Either the headline poll numbers are wrong or the underlying poll numbers are wrong. There is no way most voters think the economy will be fine but will vote to Remain anyway.

Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35842119)

That's what Fact Check said yesterday on BBC so was going by that.

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35842121)

Personally l would be very wary of the polls given the volatility of the electorate in these past few years.

Originally Posted by techguyone (Post 35842124)

I'm hoping for Leave but suspect Remain will edge it.

During the last two Ge's the pollsters pretty much got it bang on, it's becoming a more exact science now.

Originally Posted by techguyone (Post 35842124)

I'm hoping for Leave but suspect Remain will edge it.

During the last two Ge's the pollsters pretty much got it bang on, it's becoming a more exact science now.

Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 35842087)

Tonight's debate.

350m a week "IN" asked him it's a lie they said. Well maybe in the sense of what we get back but we still have to pay out 350m first before any rebate. The point being why don't we just pay 150m a week instead and keep the rest

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35842125)

Well the bookies rarely get it wrong and they favour the Remain camp to win.

https://www.justbookies.com/election...EyIaAp0S8P8HAQ

Originally Posted by techguyone (Post 35842124)

During the last two Ge's the pollsters pretty much got it bang on, it's becoming a more exact science now.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35842127)

Why do you think Remain will win? Status-quo effect?

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35842130)

Yes they were bang on with the last GE predictions :erm:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35842117)

If we leave aside our own biases and try to discuss this objectively what does everyone think the actual result will be and why?

As I said above I think that a combination of anti-establishment mood as well as a serious underestimation of the Leave vote in Northern Labour heartlands will win this for Leave. I can't explain why the polls aren't picking this up, and it may be apprehension talking, but the underlying questions in the polling are alarming for Remain. Only 1/3rd of the electorate think there will be any economic impact in Leaving for example whilst the vast majority think immigration will go down. 50% of Labour voters think Labour supports Leave. Most voters think EU immigration accounts for 15% of the population as opposed to 5%.

Essentially the Leave campaign is working. Despite the 50-50 in the polls most voters think Brexit will not hurt the economy but will reduce migration. If that's the case Remain is finished. Either the headline poll numbers are wrong or the underlying poll numbers are wrong. There is no way most voters think the economy will be fine but will vote to Remain anyway.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35842122)

I could find nothing on this page that stated EU workers only get 20 days holiday - can you provide a link, please?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36434855

The minimum in Europe is 20 days plus statutory holidays, just like the UK, but most European countries have more statutory holidays than us - you appeared to be comparing our total amount against theirs without statutory.

Similarly with maternity leave, you compared the statutory minimum for EU countries (14 weeks) with ours (52 weeks - SMP lasts 39 weeks, and for the first six weeks, SMP is paid at 90 per cent of average earnings, and for the next 33 weeks, it is paid at the same 90 per cent or at the flat rate, whichever is lower.), but obviously didn't realise that Germany gives mothers 14 weeks of full pay, and both parents can take 14 months of parental leave at 65% of salary during the child's first 3 years, whilst in France they get 16 weeks full pay (26 weeks for the 3rd child).

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35842121)

Personally l would be very wary of the polls given the volatility of the electorate in these past few years.