Cable Forum - Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Does no-one on the Remain side feel, that the language being shown by the likes of Juncker and Guy Verhofstadt, is unhelpful, like Juncker initially saying right after the referendum, 'this is not an amicable divorce' and Verhofstadt, saying only the other day on twitter, 'For years the EU bent over backwards to please Britain. Now you ask for flexibility? ?

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

The language on both sides is poor IMO as nothing seems to have been learnt at all..:(

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

I am just trying to recall all these years, the EU bent over backwards for us....

When Cameron went to Brussels beginning of last year, pretty sure they did not do any form of bending over backwards, more like the two finger salute, which is probably a catalyst as to why Brexit vote happened.

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35915204)

I don't recall it either but if they have then I'm happy for someone to give some examples. What I recall is decades during which we've paid a hell of a lot more than we've got out.

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35915194)

a loyal dog will never turn on it's master :)

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35915206)

I don't recall it either but if they have then I'm happy for someone to give some examples. What I recall is decades during which we've paid a hell of a lot more than we've got out.

Schengen.
Economic and Monetary Union.
The EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
The rebate on contributions to the budget.
Various aspects of freedom, security and justice legislation.

Those come to mind immediately. Each and every time the UK had an opt-out this was the EU showing flexibility.

EDIT: While I'm thinking about it it might be worth noting that those graphs showing how many times we were outvoted in the EU - on many occasions those votes covered areas the UK had an opt-out from - they didn't actually concern us anyway.

The idea the UK has not benefited economically from EU membership isn't backed up by facts, contrary to whatever the Express might say. An argument could be made that the UK has a lost opportunity cost from not having its on seat on the WTO, however the counter-argument could be made that that hasn't stopped Germany.

If you want a country that pays some serious cash into the EU check out the Netherlands. Our contribution appears large because we're quite populated. Taken on a per-capita basis our net contribution is 9th out of 28 and is more than paid back by benefits in terms of free trade with the EEA.

I think we're at around about £150 per person per year. Norway is at over £100 per head per year and even Switzerland, not a member of the EEA but with bilateral agreements, contributes over £50 per head per year.

Neither of those two receive things like CAP, ERDF or convergence funding, they're members of programs like ERASMUS so do see a small in-flow back but not much, and I'm reasonably sure they measure the benefits of their contributions across their entire economy.

---------- Post added at 21:07 ---------- Previous post was at 21:03 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35915204)

When Cameron went to Brussels beginning of last year, pretty sure they did not do any form of bending over backwards, more like the two finger salute, which is probably a catalyst as to why Brexit vote happened.

They showed about as much flexibility as was feasible. The concessions given appeared to be utterly banal, I'm sure I used more colourful language, but just appeared that way. A couple of conversations with EU lawyers indicated they were actually very substantial given the context and there was no room for any more, it would've been basically impossible.

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35915263)

Schengen.
Economic and Monetary Union.
The EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
The rebate on contributions to the budget.
Various aspects of freedom, security and justice legislation.

With the exception to the Schengen Agreement and perhaps the EMU, the others are just EU member benefits, thus, I don't see how this specifically ties in to the EU bending over backwards for us over the years?

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

We had opt-outs in all these areas. We had more opt-outs than any other state.

The UK was provided more flexibility in its membership than anyone else, to the point where it was acknowledged that a 2-speed EU was needed, primarily to accommodate the UK as it was made abundantly clear to the EU that we did not wish for closer union at this time, with little prospect of that changing.

As I said a while ago we should have stayed in EFTA and joined the EEA.

---------- Post added at 23:42 ---------- Previous post was at 23:36 ----------

Here's a cracking piece by Faisal Islam discussing how unpredictable the next 3 months are and the various diplomatic and political battles TM and the government are having to fight simultaneously, this without Parliament aggressively pushing back on anything yet.

http://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-...table-11019976

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Some fascinating stuff from the editor of Leave HQ.

This is a thread from Twitter I'm reformatting.

Quote:

Hard brexiters tell me I am exaggerating about the impact of a no deal Brexit. Let me explain why I'm not.

We live in a "computer says no" world. If I go for a mortgage and a database says I'm no good, then that is the last word on it.

Trade systems work the same way. Either a transaction is legal and permitted - or it is not.

If the UK is wiped from the EU databases then we do not qualify for preferential trade measures. We don't exist.

UK is no longer part of the EU open skies agreement so landing slots are cancelled. Months of scheduling disrupted.

We are subject to all the rules applicable to a third country with no formal relations. - Like we just dropped out of the sky.

None of the systems pertaining to "frictionless trade" will have a UK entry in the databases.

We won't even have our own customs and regulatory regime. All of it is keyed to EU systems and institutions.

Testing labs and customs offices no longer recognised or authorised. The system simply stops working.

There are those who say this is not insurmountable but what do we do while we sort this all out?

Once you break a supply chain, EU business will look elsewhere for suppliers and they won't be back in a hurry. It functions on trust.

It will take us years just to design and roll out the replacement software and systems to function as a third country.

But supposing there are workarounds as Tories continue to assert. Ok, let's entertain that for a moment.

This is the same government that has taken 15 months to learn the difference between the single market and the customs union.

And they STILL can't get the basic definitions right. Our MPs don't have the first concept of how customs systems work.

You think they will cope? Even the people who are supposed to know have only half a clue.

Rebuilding the system will require all new facilities built from scratch. We are looking at years to establish the new normal.

Oh and let's not even get into obscure things like mutual recognition of driving licences and qualifications. What fun that will be!

In short, everything fails, all at once, in ways our government is incapable of adequately responding. Operation Enduring Clusterf***.

It would be bad news even if we had a Rolls Royce government. But we don't. We have David Davis - and he's the competent one!

But never you mind. That Rees-Mogg fellow will sort it all out. After all, he has a posh accent so he must be clever. True story!

Addendum - note that this is without even making mention of tariffs! And it's becoming depressingly inevitable.

He followed it up with this. I remind people this guy is really not a 'remoaner' - he voted leave and wants the UK out of the EU.

Quote:

A halfway competent government would have signed off the outline of the Brexit financial settlement by now.

A credible government would not be playing silly buggers with the sequencing. This shouldn't even be an issue.

Given the gravity of these talks, there wouldn't be much dispute over citizens rights either. We want the same things.

Except that we are now nowhere with months on the clock. Davis is pecking over the accounts like a vulture, picking pointless arguments.

This is not statesmanship. This is accountancy.

Davis thinks its an audit, but this is political discussion over a new relationship.

Youd think with a £240bn trade relationship hanging in the balance that the so-called natural party of government would take it seriously

Unless Davis steps up the pace and starts cooperating then there is zero chance of completing a settlement in two years. ZERO.

I cannot see that the EU will be in any rush to extend if all they are getting from Davis is the run-around and political insults.

It really all depends on the EU's damage assessment and how fast they think they can recover.

Trade substitution means they can cope better than we can. It's then a matter of EU institutions adapting to reduced funding.

It's the same as about 20 EU small members pulling out. Fundamentally changes the EU and weakens it as a power.

The EU, though, will not be blackmailed, nor will it tolerate dithering. If Britain wants the full force, then so be it.

That's when all of Britain pays the price for Tory hostility and hubris. We are looking at a very serious recession.

That much is unavoidable when you throw away all of your JIT supply lines and food exports.

And then we will see first hand just how completely inept UK governance has become. Surprise at the consequences will be very telling.

Our equally abysmal response to them will be equally instructive. An administration totally out of its depth. Won't know what hit it.

We are then in the position of begging fore a restoration of trade instruments with the EU. It won't be pretty

That won't be fast and it will not be cheap. There will be a financial and political price.

Repairing the damage to EU institutions will cost - and we will foot the bill. EU will seek reparations if we want trade.

More will be the political cost. A major international humiliation. "Global Britain" will be a damp squib. A stillborn.

Then we end up with a Corbyn government making everything manifestly worse. You'll deserve it though. This is what you wanted.

"We can get a better deal than Norway" you said. I will enjoy reminding you. Will give us something to chat about in the dole office. ;)

There is no fundamental objection to leaving the European Union here as long as it's done the right way. What's going on right now isn't even close.

The Icelandic foreign minister just today said that the UK would be welcome in EFTA. It would benefit them and benefit us, we would have immediate trade deals as part of EFTA and be able to negotiate more.

What we're doing right now isn't taking back control or asserting sovereignty, it's talking about copy/pasting European Union trade schedules, trade deals, and allowing ministers with no Parliamentary input to produce thousands of statutory instruments. Given I thought this was about democracy the idea of handing all that to the executive doesn't really appeal!

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35915312)

:zzz::zzz::zzz:

Sorry if evidence-based opinion is so dull. Just keep reading the Express and other things that agree with you; wouldn't want to burst your bubble with silly things like reality :)

Cheers for making the point though that you have no comeback to such things. Great to see you so able to debate and defend your own opinions. Very reassuring that your vote last year, one that's quite literally life changing for many, and your desire for a 'clean' Brexit are based on such a solid, factual basis :tu:

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35915313)

your welcome now stop waking me up :zzz::zzz::zzz:

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35915275)

With the exception to the Schengen Agreement and perhaps the EMU, the others are just EU member benefits, thus, I don't see how this specifically ties in to the EU bending over backwards for us over the years?

Nor me.

They've had some concessions 'forced' out of them over the years yes but to claim they've bent over backwards for the UK for decades is patent nonsense.

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

For all your Traitors out there, here's how to get behind Brexit:

1) Holiday in Britain
2) Wash your clothes by hand

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/905012492069478402

Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35915325)

For all your Traitors out there, here's how to get behind Britain:

1) Holiday in Britain
2) Wash your clothes by hand

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/905012492069478402

And buy British if there is much you can buy now which is British.:)