Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

It was all about social gatherings, not about cake.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59577129

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Have just voted in council elections , Postal ballot, 4 votes ,1each green / plaid cymru,lib dem, labour and Tory Reason they give there addresses as being in the village . The others wouldn't say we're they live, At least I might have a faint hope of seeing them around in the next four years. Not that most have a hope of winning , we have at the moment 4 Tory's others mp , Am are labour with a Tory picking up the second choice vote. Unfortunately my votes will be seen as a vote against Boris . It's nothing to do with him

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Indeed. I hope Johnson reciprocates.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

In that case I think most people not working from home and in a building over that time will have broken that rule .

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Apparently it's ok to break the rules as long as you didn't make them.

no foul, play on ;)

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Unless, of course, the Met have got it wrong…again.

This really is a petty matter and not deserving of the huge amount of fuss that has been generated. To refer to a presentation of a birthday cake in a 9-minute break between work events as a party is pretty OTT and shows how desperate people are to push out of office the one man that people agreed could get Brexit done and get this country up and running…and prevent the Labour Party from getting back into power.

I say to those people, enjoy the moment, because it will soon pass and you will be back to square one. Brexit has happened, Covid is all but thwarted, the killjoy scientists are vanquished, parties are back on the to-do list and all is getting back to normal.

And thank God for that.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Mmmmm…

Some fairly major cognitive dissonance there… ;)

(Or were the vaccines/anti-viral medicines not developed by scientists?)

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

And therein lies your problem. You’re so utterly blinded by your belief that this must all somehow be part of one big tribal culture war that you’re left defending indefensible behaviour perpetrated by an entitled narcissist - not to mention shredding what little remaining credibility you had as a contributor here. A pity.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I think there's plenty of people £50+ worse off who would have been grateful for your legal advices on how to avoid paying their fines but have coughed up in apparent ignorance.

---------- Post added at 20:44 ---------- Previous post was at 20:38 ----------

A realistic Conservative like many I chatted to over Easter wanted Johnson gone when the parties first came out. Even more so now as the goodwill over Ukraine would belong to a new Conservative PM on the ascent and not Johnson on his way out.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

You and 1000 ex councillors will probably be ready to get rid of him in a few weeks .... Personally I hope he stays till the next GE ;)

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Gove is who they suggested.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I hoped Boris would bring Brexit to a conclusion with more decisiveness than May was prepared to offer. He did, and I’m thankful for that. He does not, however, deserve my blind loyalty. Ultimately I wish to see a broadly right of centre government in this country and in the long run a Tory leader who can’t respect laws he wrote or the parliament he’s accountable to, lessens the chances of that continuing.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

QFT

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Those not hanging onto Johnson's every word acknowledge that the longer he remains in power, the sooner Labour gets into power.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I'm pretty much the same as you Carth 66 yo and only voted twice.

Way back on the Common Market vote (against) and once again on leaving. hence why I don't give a toss on the petty argument about people who have been working closely together 8hrs a day having a drink together.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

For the record, I can't take the credit, it's what my friends said. I'm as confounded as you on it!

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

The Tories have decent candidates it's just they're not talked about. Jeremy Hunt has generally been seen to have done well as a Minister and has decent media appearances. Gove also has a good reputation as being competent.

The Tories have a weird obsession with Liz Truss though now that Sunak is out. I think they're learning the wrong lessons from America and leaning too much into the culture war issues rather than economics though. Recently they seem to want to talk about trans people and Channel 4 rather than the cost of living.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Competent? You've raised the bar for applicants now!

The obsession with 'must he a Brexiteer/and or bonkers' rules out the few that do have any talent. Nadine Dorries/Priti Patel/ the 'Hon member for the 18th century' are the best they've got !

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

i am so glad l have read his thread.
Lets put it this way.
The Joker laid down the law at what we should do, He broke the law, he lied to the commons, he lied to the public. Dont forget that the police are investigating further claims that he broke the law.
All his fellow jokers are taking the mick with the public by bringing in what he has achieved during the pandemic.
Thousands of the public were forced to abide by HIS decisions. Social Distance, funerals, wearing a face masks, lockdown.

Yet, he was involved in parties etc etc.
He should resign today for being such a ****. He broke the law, and he probably paid the fine by the swipe of his credit card. He is a disgrace to the Tories

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I wouldn't be surprised if at some point it comes out that one of his rich chums picked up the fines for him and Carrie.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I think his friends' assets are a bit cold at the moment. ;)

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Let it go!

;)

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

The nature of the crime is not the issue here, it was the response to it. It seems like Boris Johnsons response to all of this is that he didn't understand the rules which throws in to question his competence and governance. He stood in front of TV cameras and told us all the rules but seemingly didn't understand them himself. That is worrying when he is supposedly in charge of the country.

The other possibility is that he did understand the rules and didn't care and tried to cover it up. That would suggest that the rules are for us and not for him which is incredibly arrogant.

Boris Johnson is either not competent to lead the country or hold such disrespect for the public and Parliament that he shouldn't lead. This has nothing to do with Brexit, COVID or anything else, it's about the person we trust to lead the country. If they are not fit to lead, they should go.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

:tu:

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I haven’t seen any evidence to back that up

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Check out the polls.

---------- Post added at 09:18 ---------- Previous post was at 09:11 ----------

Great post and clearly explained.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

There's never a good time. Johnson's latest trick is to use this line in the hope that people forget about partygate.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

A person can be an effective decision maker whilst being of dubious moral character, most of the time at least. The problem arises where a the need of an effective decision intersects with the need for sound ethical decision making. Arguably of course there’s always an ethical component to good governance but it comes to the fore in some places more than others. Leading a government that thinks it’s a good idea to transport asylum applicants to Rwanda, for example. Or trying to ensure that truly insane levels of bureaucracy don’t stand in the way of Ukrainians coming to the UK. That’s why Archbishop Justin Welby was absolutely right to use his Easter address to put the ethical boot in and why it is so troubling that some politicians got so shrill at the very idea of being criticised by someone whose job it is to reflect the teachings of someone who had plenty to say about the moral qualifications of leaders.

Beyond that, whether someone is of good character simply matters. The rest of the world sees us through our leaders, especially when those leaders have democratic legitimacy. Keeping him on will eventually start to reflect badly on all of us.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Why is no one giving the same amount of grief to Rishi, he got a fixed penalty notice for the same breach of regulations.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

:rofl: oh stop it Andrew, you're killing me :rofl:

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Although I'm not a fan and think he should have questions asked about his behaviour, what statements has he made where he said he didn't break the law before he was then fined for breaking the law?

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

The polls have been pretty consistent for a while now. Not just Johnson's approval numbers which are terrible, or Labour's lead which has been there for a while now but also the underlying numbers on issues like the economy and the NHS.

Recent by-elections haven't been kind to them either.

I think the scale of seats Starmer needs to win back to win a majority is too much in one election but the Tories are remarkably complacent in assuming the polls will simply revert back and they'll win. They should learn from how close 2017 was to not take things for granted.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

This poll is currently making headlines.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...7&d=1650465833
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/...36769841242122

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

The UK is forecast to be the worse-performing G7 nation in 2023, behind France. It's easier to change the Prime Minister than it is the economy. And Labour is now ahead on the economy.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1650466502

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ions-imf-warns

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMfG3sMo34s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mclNm9Igl1o

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

A poll of how much people think Johnson is a dick, is not an indication of whether the next government will be a Labour one.

I think Johnson is a colossal dick, but I still believe a Conservative government lead by him or someone else is preferable to Kier “what’s a cervix” or Angela “I’ll break your face” Rayner.

---------- Post added at 22:51 ---------- Previous post was at 22:46 ----------

You Gov? Because they’ve been proven to be wholly accurate and representative…………..

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

They know more about polling than you and me put together. It's their job, even if you don't find the polls a match for your views.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

polls here, polls there, polls everywhere . . . probably with the same (hand picked) 2000 people being asked every time

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Your hypothesis is not aligned with actuality…

(but you probably knew that ;) )

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

yet a poll of 2000 people 'random' people gives a result that is then projected to be the consensus of the remaining 40 million people of voting age in the country :shrug:

I fear many people have lost their grip on reality and live in a strange world where they depend on statistics and expert analysis to help them though the day . . . and 11 of the 9 people in my therapy group agree with me :D

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Your not understanding how something works does not equate to proof that something doesn’t work.

Polling relies on a form of applied mathematics called statistics. Its potential as well as its limitations are well understood, and accessible introductions to the science are readily available.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

It's bloody guesswork, no matter how fancy you dress it up.

*shakes head and walks away

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Hah! Everytime there's a poll/survey of public opinion in the High street you can see those who hang around hoping to be approached and those that can't possibly stop now and are too busy to stop to answer some questions.It amounts pretty much to the same people being asked over and over again.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Anyone hear MP William Wragg's speech a few minutes ago, gives me hope that politics is worth persisting with and that there still are decent people participating in it

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

That's not how proper polling works. They either do have the same people but make sure it's a broad cross-section of society - this is actually useful as you can track how people change - or it's random telephone polling of 'x' amount of people.

It works because people demographically are not that different. So if you get enough people the outliers even out.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Statistics is not the same as guesswork, no matter how many times you say it… ;)

The problem a lot of people have with Statistics (as a Branch of Mathematics) is that it can often be counterintuitive, which can confuse people (because they find it difficult to understand, they dismiss it).

For example, how many people would have to be in a room before it was likely there would be two with the same birthday?



https://www.statisticshowto.com/same-birthday-odds/

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Amazing, what a coincidence (see what I did there) that 2 of 30 people in a room have the same birthday.

How many people use this forum daily . . . and how many share the same birthday?

*knocks the ball back over to you . .

edit: I've just remembered something that may interest you.
Years ago I used to drink in a pub (before it was knocked down and turned into rabbit hutches) and 2 people in the bar had the same name (both christian & surname), and it wasn't a common name like John Smith or Dave Brown (although there was actually one of those present).
Funnily enough one is white (no not the name) and the other was black (I say was because now he's ethnic/brown/dark skinned/asian etc etc)
Statistically then, in a group of 40 people drinking in a public bar, 2 of them will share the exact same name . . . am I right?

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

No, because there are far more names than days in a year but I guess are common names so you would be able to work it out.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

No, because you have taken too small a sample and names are not randomly assigned to people. Whereas you can work out the common birthdays thing just with some simple maths - no need to ask people in the pub at all.

As for CF members, there are plenty of common birthdays. Just on the first page of Lifestyle, I see these threads:
Happy Birthday to TAZMANUK, braysoj1
Happy Birthday to djmagnifique, spj20016
Happy Birthday to Sirius, eoin.miskell

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Tell me you don’t understand Statistics without telling me you don’t understand Statistics… :D

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1650557649

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Right, so as I'm reading all the highly intelligent replies (which don't actually say anything apart from 'we're right you're wrong'), I can see that 2 of 30 in the same room sharing a birthday is a definite statistical probability, whereas 2 from 40 sharing the same christian and (uncommon) surname is simply too absurd to be considered a statistic.

Truth be told, both are simply coincidences, bugger all to do with statistics.


P.S. question regarding members birthdays still not answered ;)




. . . and probably won't be

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Hugh showed you how it statistically works. It's because you're not looking if one specific birthday is shared by another person, it's if any person shares a birthday with anyone else. So when you reach 23 people you have 253 possible combinations of dates (23 * 22 / 2) in a year.

I don't understand why you're going on about names. It's not the same principle.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Your verbosity is a very thin disguise for your refusal to understand the way these things work. As I said earlier, accessible introductions to the discipline are out there and easy to find and read, if you so choose.

Sorry if you’re finding your demands for the rest of us to do your homework for you are going unfulfilled but that’s your lookout. Statistics is applied maths, and in the case of opinion polling it produces useful results, provided the techniques are correctly followed and the caveats properly understood and allowed for. It isn’t guesswork, no matter how many times you’ve heard your local pub bore declaring it to be the case.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Here you go…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1650560876

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

82% of statistics are made up - Vic Reeves. :D

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

top answer Hugh, well done, it does appear that many people REALLY don't understand :p:

Anyway, that's enough from me, you lot carry on defending your faith in statistics ;)

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

No need to have "faith" in anything - Mathematics is a science, not a religion…

Anyhoo, back on topic…

Partygate: Boris Johnson will face Commons investigation

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8...0a804c17b6d643

And this from one of his biggest supporters…

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I see you have proven that it is statistically possible to wind up the forum's mansplainer's with a few well worded post's;)

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-met...y/research-qs/

https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/

---------- Post added at 19:11 ---------- Previous post was at 18:43 ----------

Why I became an MP…

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Thats actually quite funny. :D

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Would only take 2 people if my mate took his eldest son to the pub ;) His wife did her put down when he suggested Calling his second and third son Mick too :shocked:

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

This ^^

Although this part of the conversation was triggered by my indifference specifically to YouGov.

They don’t randomly ask 2000 or 1000 people, they ask 2000 or 1000 people “specifically chosen” from a database of “recruited” registered YouGov respondents.

Nothing “random” about it, so you can throw that Gaussian Curve out the window.

I’m not saying it is……but you could quite easily skew a result by selecting your respondents.

You may read the attached and think that’s all fine, and if properly managed and overseen it may be.

https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/

But……importantly…..it’s not random. It’s like getting a lucky dip in the lottery, those numbers are computer generated and anything computer generated is not random.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Not true. There are many ways to get computers to generate truly random numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premium_Bond#ERNIE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardwa...mber_generator

Even the old Pace STBs had a random number generator based on sampling noise off the cable.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Also whilst it's true most implementations of a standard random number algorithms in programming aren't truly random they pretty much are for the purposes we're talking about here. For picking from datasets, i.e a population, pseudo-random is fine. It's not going to be biased to a pre-determined outcome whereas if you were doing a coin-toss betting game there would be an advantage to knowing what seeded the random number generator (and what the generator was).

But polling clearly works. YouGov called the last election as Tories: 43%. They got 44%. Labour: 33%. They got 34%.

It's not precise. There are limitations. But it's not bad and it's the best we have outside of elections. It's certainly better than our own biases, political commentators or anecdotal evidence from our social circles.

If Remainers listened to polling rather than Twitter the Brexit vote wouldn't be such a shock. If Labour had listened to the polls rather than assume everyone loves Corbyn they would have gotten rid of him before December 2019.

Failed election campaigns almost always a mantra into why the polls are wrong.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Despite that, they are often wrong, aren’t they? Still, if that’s what you want to rely on to form your judgements, good luck with that.

Do you remember the surprise of the BBC when it started to dawn on them that the public had voted for Brexit? Priceless!

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

If you’re looking for precision, then they will always be wrong. There’s a margin of error, usually of +/-3 points in a properly weighted poll with decent data tracking historic trends. No polling expert worth the title will claim more than they can deliver in this regard. It’s usually the tabloid newspapers that commission the polls that selectively report the results to suit their agenda.

In the case of the Brexit referendum, the result was within the margin of error so essentially unpredictable. This was compounded by a lack of historic voting patterns to calibrate against, because unlike a general election, a Brexit referendum doesn’t occur once every 5 years. I suspect the BBC’s presumption, early on voting night, that remain would win, was grounded in a good deal of wishful thinking.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

A computer will ( certainly earlier ones, I have to admit I’m not sure about AI) only do what is told and within those parameters. As I say, AI I’m sure will may change that, but prior to this a computer can only do what it is told.

From your Ernie link.

In regards to your second link, I was referencing “lotto”, but even in regards to those more powerful systems that page littered with caveats, , etc

And whilst I accept there may be machines out there capable of near, or perhaps even true (doubtful) randomness ……..I doubt the lottery are using them for your lucky dip.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

You can use things like the coordinates on-screen of the mouse movements to generate a seed. That'll be random because it's not deterministic.

Well random enough for 99.999999% of cases. I can't think of many applications where you would need to go further than ensuring the seed is properly random.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Next Conservative Party Leader Odds:

Liz Truss: 6/1
Tom Tugendhat: 8/1
Jeremy Hunt: 8/1
Ben Wallace: 10/1
Penny Mordaunt: 21/2
Rishi Sunak: 12/1
Sajid Javid: 17/1
Michael Gove: 20/1
Nadhim Zahawi: 23/1
Dominic Raab: 33/1

@oddschecker

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Patel not even on the list? Problem is I don’t rate any of them.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Your fellow scouser, Nadine Dorries, is not on the list either.

Confess I'm not too familiar with Tom Tugendhat or Penny Mordaunt so suspect they've kept a clean slate.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

What are the odds for Boris? Is that a sore point or a result that will confound the pollsters?

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Ummmmmm, Boris is already the leader.
How can he have odds to be the next leader ? :dozey:

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Truss is a car crash waiting to happen, Ben Wallace might be a good choice

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Indeed. :D

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I imagine Keith will get the order of Lenin if Boris is replaced.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Wallace has had a good war but it's hard to tell much else about how he would perform as PM. I don't know why the Tory Membership is so keen on Truss, I said before I think they overestimate how much culture war issues help in the UK.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I think a great many of the Tory grassroots are still dreaming of Thatcher 2.0 and a hard-talking female, senior MP inevitably draws hopeful comparisons. Personally I find it hard to get past that cheese disgrace speech.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I wasn't criticising the list, I was simply pondering what the odds would be if Boris was standing for PM now.

---------- Post added at 09:11 ---------- Previous post was at 09:09 ----------

You are correct on all counts. She seems to be doing well at the moment, but I don't really rate her.

That cheese speech was definitely cringeworthy.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Well, since it’s not been awarded since the dissolution of the USSR over 30 years ago, it’s about as likely as you not trolling…

---------- Post added at 09:47 ---------- Previous post was at 09:43 ----------

Those two statements don’t correlate.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

You can easily generate a truly random number on almost any computer. You simply ask the user to press a button, then time how long it takes them to do it.

There's no dispute about that. That's the difference between pseudorandom and truly random. But pseudorandom is good enough for most purposes, including political polling.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I think she's already been promoted beyond her ability. Intelligent perhaps but she lacks common sense and political judgment as the cheese comments showed.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Many people in all places of work seem to be promoted above their ability . . usually to get them out of the department they're currently making a mess of.
Apparently it's easier and safer than sacking them for incompetence and facing the probable backlash of a discrimination claim ;)

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I suspect Old Boy originally misread the definition of the list and is now back-treading.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I can think of quite a few ministers that have reached that plateau.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Classy Twitter post from Sophie Corcoran, political correspondent on GB News...

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...6&d=1650625276

She appears to have accidently cropped the date out of the article photo, which was published five days before lockdown was announced, and eight days before it went into effect.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1650625850

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Childish and lazy, mind you a fair few of her tiny audience don't mind being duped as long as it fits in with their view of things

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Breaking news on that bring-your-own-booze ̶w̶o̶r̶k̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶t̶ party
https://news.sky.com/story/downing-s...tands-12596144

---------- Post added at 19:12 ---------- Previous post was at 19:01 ----------

I thought I'd seen people limdbo dance on this forum to explain away Johnson's law-breaking but to their credit, no one here has stooped to this disgraceful level.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Given the time and location, it’s very arguable that the Downing St gathering was much less risky or concerning than that NHS one. The only difference is the cockeyed lockdown law.

Boris’s problem is that he locked down in the first place………….on that I’m happy for him reap his sowing. If he didn’t lock down he wouldn’t be in this position.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

https://news.sky.com/story/politics-...olice-12593360

Interesting take from Alastair Campbell
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/s...76999114858496

I have another theory. I wonder if the Mail on Sunday article which is making the headlines today is actually there to divert attention from the Sue Gray story? Not suggesting this was instigated by Johnson, but perhaps an enthusiastic advocate MP took the initiative themselves.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

there is plenty of camera footage that can be examined to see if she has or hasn't been doing a Sharon on bojo .

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

stomach turning.