Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

But the problems that Ireland and Spain had/have are mainly down to a collapse in the property market and not any underlying government spending.

Greece is very different. Eg Buying off the electorate with surplus public sector jobs.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

What?

They're paying it back.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

In which case equating them isn't really fair. Greece's public spending has dropped a bunch. Sadly alongside that has come a massive drop in GDP, so it hasn't actually helped.

Are you advocating, having cut public spending by ~20% and taking 1/4th from the Greek economy, more of the same?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

If the problem has been in part caused by employing people in unnecessary public sector jobs then that is where the axe should fall. Or should they be given an eternal pass to spend as much as they like and others will forever be expected to pay for it.

If repaying loans takes so much money , how did they ever think they were going to repay anything. They've already been let off 50% of the debt.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

What?

When?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Per my link above, it was assumed that the Greek economy would recover, not slump, as a result of austerity, and even the IMF now know that the debt won't be paid back. Had the Greek economy proceeded as planned that would've provided some income to going onto the right track. As it was austerity destroyed it.

Blame rests on the shoulders of creditors and debtor alike.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Since forever. It was a loan.

http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-int...20288-Oct2013/

As of 2013 they were just paying the interest but over the course of the next 10 or so years they'll pay it all back.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Good. Ta :)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

According to Andrew Neil on the Beeb, Merkel has just ruled out any further negotiations with the Greeks until after their referendum on Sunday. He also mentioned rumours that the Greek PM may cancel the planned referendum.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

And yet, the Eurogroup is meeting to discuss it today at 4:30, the ECB will discuss the ELA on the Greek banks in 10 minutes, Tsipras will make a TV speech any minute now and the the Greek Vice-President rubbished the media reports attributed to him in cancelling the referendum --- it not possible constitutionally.


And the Greek credit cards have no limits worldwide but no cash withdrawals

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Presumably they're having discussions not negotiations.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I did not dispute what you said, it was accurate . See

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33345219

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Neil said it not me. ;)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

If I were Greek, I'd listen to what the Eurocrats say, then do the exact opposite.

---------- Post added at 19:17 ---------- Previous post was at 17:41 ----------

Incidentally ... the IMF reckons even if Greece lifts its fustanella and allows the Eurozone to give it a good seeing-to, it will still be €50bn short of what it needs to function over the next 3 years.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Well if I was a Greek I'd be dusting off those Drachma's that were stuffed in the bedding.:erm:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I'm just a teensy bit worried that Prime Minister Tsipras and his Cabinet are going to turn up at the next eurozone meeting in full Spartan battledress and we all know what that means....

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

They were freeloaders even back then.:D

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Source

Some intersting observations on the IMF with the Greek chrisis.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The lenders have already taken a 50% "haircut". The banks were lending on behalf of depositors/savers. It is those people who would lose out, including 77% of the money in Greek pension funds.

It is faith the banking system that has to be "propped up". People and businesses need to borrow for things like mortgages, business investment, start ups etc. People might prefer to put their money "under the mattress" instead.

If Greece had been denied lending in the past, what then? Even the UK needed IMF funding in the 1970's.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Varoufakis copies Harry Redknapp : press conferences on the road :D

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2015/07/46.jpg


http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multim...ll_305708c.jpg

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Both good examples of how left wing government spend, spend, spend policies can get a country into a mess.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Too true. :tu:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Or not true at all, depending on your prospective

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...ting-seventies

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

But some of that was achieved by simply delaying problems. Eg Wages policy which brought inflation down, backfired years later when everybody wanted to play catch up and restore the differentials between the levels of pay.

Not sure being at school and being asked to buy your own paper is a good thing. Some of us were there in the late '70s.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Mostly true ,from memory, the 3 day week ,electricity rationing ,rampant inflation ,miners strikes ,dockers strikes, virtual collapse of the British car industry ....because of more strikes and a recession during the first half of the decade ,all of which made the 70's a pretty crap decade

There where some good tunes though ;)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Was only a baby, don't remember much of that decade at all, just seemed to me that there's two points to every argument and why should the seventies be any different

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I think you would have found the seventies very different to anything you've known :shocked:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Too true. More Labour ineptitude, union madness and excess. Some things never change...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I loved the three day week as an apprentice, getting paid for 5 was brill. The electricity bill was very low (because we did not have any lecy) loved the dark nights. The 70s was the best decade ever.

Than came the 80s with its 14.5% mortgage rates! got stung with that one.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Better than the 17% in the mid 70's

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Seems like No has won by an overwhelming majority.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33403665

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Call my bluff...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Mm. "Too close to call", "Yes coming up on the rails" ... then a convincing victory for "No".

Sounds familiar. :D

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

So will the Eurozone decide to cut them a better deal or will they view them as too difficult to deal with and cut them loose? Spanish elections soon and a insurgent left-wing party awaits....

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Deutsche Bank published some scenarios earlier today. They believe that the likelihood of Grexit grows with the size of the No majority. If they're on the money, Greece is likely to find itself cut loose fairly soon. For a start, I just don't see how any German politician can sell a deal to their electorate under these circumstances.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Only if the yes campaign start moaning about the result and demand a re-run every time anything remotely changes.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Chris meant the Greek polls were similar to the UK election polls ---i.e completely wrong.

But you are right, they "yes lot" already did say to Tsipras exactly what you said.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Actually I was referring to the Scottish referendum, but not the polls so much as the endless nippy chat we had to put up with on Facebook and below the line on just about every relevant newspaper article for about 2 years.

You're right though, there is also a strange similarity with our own recent election polling. I wonder what's up with that.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

What's going to happen if the Greeks don't quite like the next deal offered to them, if indeed one is? Another referendum? Why not? If this carries on, sooner or later they'll have to apply to the EU for aid to run their referenda...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Time is very short:

Linky

So it's either pour more money into the bottomless pit with no hope of it being repayed or watch the Euro fall apart. All comes back to the Germans.

If Greece is bailed out then expect Italy and Spain to be next in line. Why should they have austerity only to see the Greeks get a handout?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I may be wrong but I have the suspicion that this whole EU/Euro thing wasn't properly thought through...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

That's a masterly understatement.:D

But then vanity projects are pursued with such messianic zeal that little things like basket case economies that cook the books to get in are just a detail.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Well it makes a change from exaggeration. :)

Maybe those blinkered Eurocrats are about to discover that the devil is in that detail...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I expect there's some EU fund somewhere, probably with some of our money in it, that will be raided to keep it going a little longer. The real problem is the 20th of July when some €3.5b, that Greece hasn't got, has to be repaid to the European bank. Don't think that they can fudge that one.

Excrement hits air circulator.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33426328

Maybe they're worried that if they write anything down, they'll have to pay tax on it...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Greece really aren't giving their allies much to work with are they? The lack of market turmoil over the last few days is probably just going to strengthen the Eurozone resolve to resist Greece's demands and offer up a final 'take it or leave the Euro' deal.

Their big miscalculation was to assume that the precedent of a country leaving the Eurozone would strike up such fear that a deal would be forthcoming if they held their ground. In the end they've gone into the talks with no leverages and with lenders facing domestic pressure to resist the Greek demands. Also the lenders are the ones with the money. If you go to your bank and demand a reduction in your mortgage but you want to keep the house then the bank wouldn't be willing to play ball.

This is the front cover of a German finance magazine. I don't speak German but apparently it translates to 'Give me the money or I'll shoot':

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2015/07/34.jpg

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33456182

But it's not all bad news. The Greeks have apparently come up with a credible plan as demanded - they're just looking for the fag packet they wrote it down on...

Meanwhile this is, apparently, how Greeks feel and are being seen in Germany:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33446985

I dare say that German migrants in Greece aren't flavour of the month either.

Now who'd have thought that anything remotely like this could have resulted from the EU's perfectly logical and measured drive towards monetary and political union?... :shrug: :rolleyes:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Frankly a country/government that allowed it's hairdressers to retire at 50 with a full pension whilst failing to garner in enough taxes from it's citizens really has to face up to realities eventually.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

That goes without saying and makes the decision to admit them into the Eurozone even more ridiculous.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

A terrible state for a country to be in,

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

So Greeces masterplan after rejecting the offered bailout pretty comprehensively is to offer to sign up to the bailout pretty much in full. :confused:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33475455

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Does anyone really believe the Greeks will stick to the deal, if accepted, or is this just another stay of execution?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Some German politicians are asking the same question according to The Guardian. It does appear that Greece has folded entirely when it became clear they were in no position to make demands.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Or, it's just part of the Greek game.

1: "Accept" all of the demands of the creditors. Possibly sign a few token laws into force to show they "mean it this time"

2: Get a sizeable chunk of money from the creditors, get enough money for the banks to stay open long enough to nationalise them, enforce heavy losses on bond and shareholders while protecting deposits.

3: Do nothing after this, and wait for the protests to really hit.

4: Roll back all of their promises, stating that they "Value democracy over blackmail and the people cannot stand more austerity"

5: Laugh manically as they have saved their government, outfoxed the Germans and got everything they wanted.

6: Syriza become massively popular in Greece and seen as heroes and untouchable.

7: Syriza hope to the gods that they don't get kicked out of the EU for such brazen thievery.

This all assumes that Germany et al actually believe a word Tsipras says, which is still up in the air, even with the likes of France, the US, IMF etc putting pressure on them to accept.

This weekend will be fun.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I really can see a whole load of resentment and bitterness building up within Europe. Pretending it's not there or simply going to fade away is delusional and simply storing up bigger problems for the future IMHO. A radical rethink is required sooner rather than later.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

When my son was at secondary school 93-98 he was required to take all his own paper, maths equipment and pens. Students even got punished by detention if they didnt even when their families couldnt afford this which i thought was so wrong.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

You were always required to buy your own pens and maths equipment at secondary school. If the school had supplied those items, they would inevitably have been broken or not returned. It was paper in the form of exercise books or loose leaf in 6th form that was supplied by the school.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Same when I was at school in the early 70's. We had to buy our own sliderules* too but through the school so we had the approved type(s).

*Mechanical calculator.

Greece is just putting off the day when they get blown out of the Euro. Austerity has contracted their economy by over 25%. How on earth can they pay back a payday loan with another payday loan. We all know where that can lead.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I think they'll probably get a debt write-off or 'restructuring' at some point when it's more political tenable for the creditor states to do so. At the moment the amount of attention it's receiving combined with Spanish elections this year makes it difficult for the Eurozone but ultimately I think they all know that would be the way forward.

The benefits of Greece leaving the Euro are questionable as well. There is no real advantaging in devaluing the currency of a country which doesn't export much and imports a lot. It's really only dealing with their debt and tourism that would benefit and the former might be addressed at a later date anyway.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Goldman Sachs to be sued?

Somehow I doubt it but IMHO they do have a case to answer.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-10381926.html

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Why? It was the Greek government that actually took out the loans AND spent them. Goldman Sachs just provided a method of hiding them in the accounts. The excessive spending and tax evasion etc of the Greeks was started decades ago, BEFORE joining the Euro. It was already heavily in debt, which is why Goldman Sachs got involved. The Greeks had been fiddling their economic statistics before and LONG AFTER joining the Euro.

39 consecutive years of budget deficits and they wonder why they are in trouble.:rolleyes:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Why they have a case to answer? Well if, as you said yourself, they helped the Greeks cook the books then I'd have thought that's obvious. The only question is to whom they they have a case to answer. Maybe to those countries and institutions who've been bailing out the Greeks and lost billions as a result of a false representation of Greece's economy?... :shrug:

Suing isn't difficult, doing it successfully is much harder. We all know the Greeks have been acting irresponsibly for decades and must have been complicit in any deception so it'd be ironic (and IMHO highly unlikely) for the Greeks to successfully go down that route. Maybe less so for major German banks.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Goldman Sachs didn't really cook the books as they didn't prepare them. They just used an allowed method, that other countries have used, to keep debt off the books. Just as PFI is businesses borrowing on behalf of the UK Government without it appearing in any debt figures. They did an awful lot of hiding of debt all by themselves.

Austria did similar things, again all without Goldman Sachs.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Reading the link in question FTW.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Lot of ifs in there. Apparently other banks have done the same for other countries, eg Italy. Greece and Italy wanted a way of hiding their true levels of debt and that is what they got. It was just exploiting an accounting rule.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I'll refer you back to the link again. Nothing to do with the accounting tricks themselves.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Well if/when this matter is examined thoroughly by legal experts, the extent to which GS did or didn't do anything legally wrong will be determined. It's the same with the supposedly legal tax avoidance schemes which have been promoted heavily to companies/wealthy individuals only for courts to determine they were illegal.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

And what about the other banks/EU countries that did the same?

It would be Greece that would have broken any rules/laws. Greece also used other methods to hide debt, eg publicly owned companies running up debts which don't appear on the government's books.

Their whole economy was propped up by excessive borrowing. They are now having to face the reality of how bad their economy really is and was. Things are having to be cut back because they never could afford them in the first place.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

That'd depend on the outcome I imagine. As I've said I think it's unlikely to happen but if it did then and the action were won there'd could be all sorts of ramifications.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I have mentioned Germany's mercantilism, and how the Euro has benefited Germany profoundly at the expense of other Eurozone nations. Here it is in one chart, this is Germany's trade surplus, see if you can spot when the Euro was introduced.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2015/07/17.png

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Well they seem to have reached an agreement.80 billion euro bailout(whats the full bailout total now?).imaginary money paid by the northern countries .i.e taxpayers.Does anybody really think the greeks will impliment the conditions.Who will be monitoring whether they do?.They need to get people from the german banks to sort out their finances.The eu will do anything to keep their cabal together.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Standby for the rioting in Athens.

Can't see the Greek PM surviving this, even if he manages to get the required law changes through by Wednesday.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

It's a total joke really. This printed money is just going down the drain never to be seen again but the deal enables the fixated Eurocrats to delude themselves that the Eurozone works so it's all just tickety-boo now... :rolleyes:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Complete capitulation from Athens. They've agreed a deal substantially worse than that they rejected just over a week ago in the referendum. They have been remarkably incompetent in handling this crisis and it's only their last ditch pragmatism that has led to this deal doing done! Had they found that appreciation of the reality of their situation months ago then the deal would have been a lot less harsh. The level of pure vindictiveness from the Eurozone towards Greece is also pretty hard to swallow.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Well if you dare to disagree with the paymasters there's a great big German engineered, EU endorsed jackboot ready to squish the life out of you.

We really do have to get out of this place and let them get on with it.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

He still has to get the measures through the Greek parliament and that means the MPs going back on their commitments to the people. Any way up this is going to be a mess.

As far as I can see even IF the measures go through it mearly kicks the battered old tin can a little further down the road. Unless the Greek economy can put on an unimaginable spurt of real growth we'll be back here again in a few months.:dozey:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I bet it'll be a German made can...

---------- Post added at 09:43 ---------- Previous post was at 09:20 ----------

I've heard rumours that one of the lesser known terms of the bailout is that flattering images of Merkel are to be beamed onto all of Greece's major monuments just to remind the people of who saved them...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

It's unlikely to be a Greek made one, as they don't manufacture much.

The Greeks previously agreed to cut back on their bloated public sector workforce. At one point they started to do that, then they were all employed again. Just an obvious example of why they cannot be trusted.
Eg

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Are they any worse than Labour with their benefits culture and non-jobs? :D

We all know the Greeks shouldn't have been admitted into the club in the first place for the reasons mentioned in this thread any number of times. Someone remind me why that was? Carrying on with this madness is going to lead to far bigger economies winding up where Greece is.

Anyway given all this wonderful printed money flying about, I think we should rejoice that thanks, in no small part, to Gordon Brown our gold reserves are about 1/8th of those held by Italy.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Never one to miss a chance, however slim, to have a pop at Labour.

Sad, though not as sad as this Greek capitulation. See how long it lasts before everyone is back where they are now, that's if the Greek parliament and people accept this frankly punitive deal.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The EU is just one big happy family right now:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33506773

Of course none of this was at all predictable was it... :rolleyes:

As for the Greeks, well how much more power over their own affairs can they surrender?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Looks like they had no control over their affairs in the first place thats why they are in the pig poo.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33503330

I dare say some will be thinking that tanks and soldiers have been replaced by bankers and eurocrats.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Source link

The Germans won't stand for that. Looks like the can didn't get far down the road.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Easy, just get Goldman Sachs in to come up with some new numbers which look better. Problem solved... :rolleyes:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

If it were just the Eurozone and ECB then I suspect they'd try a coverup but now the IMF have blown the gaffe: They'll just be throwing good money after bad.

BTW remember a while ago I suggested that they'd dip into another EU fund somewhere to prop up the Greeks?

Linky

I just knew that sooner of later we'd be in line to prop up the Euro vanity project.:rolleyes:


I reckon Grexit is back on the menu.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I reckon UKexit is on the cards.

No doubt they'll argue that the IMF has previous when it comes to erroneous forecasts.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Minor little detail, but Goldman Sachs had absolutely nothing to do with any figures, fake or not. That was solely down to the Greeks. All Goldman Sachs did was carry out Greek instructions for transactions of a particular type. The accounting rules said those type of transactions didn't have to be on the books, but the Greeks could have chosen to put them there. The Greeks also hid government debt by getting publicly-owned companies to run up a debt on the government's behalf.

Other EU countries have used those tricks, eg Italy and Austria.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Minor little detail but my comment was a tad tongue in cheek you know. Clearly nobody's going to ask GS to come up with new figures are they. The extent to which GS was or wasn't responsible for anything dubious will only be determined if there is a legal action and as I said, I doubt there will be one.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

How about not perpetuating the myths and lies. Too many people keep buying into them without checking the facts for themselves.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Perpetuating myths and lies? :rofl:

You seem to be labouring under the impression that CF is some form of major media institution like the Beeb. I posted a link to the article in the Independent about alleged wrongdoing. You disagree with it. So what? If you're so worried about 'myths and lies' I suggest you take it up with them and the source of their article.

Here's a link to an article in a German publication back in 2010 on the same subject. You might want to challenge them too while you're at it.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-676634.html

Following your example we'd never be able to comment on or joke about anything controversial which hasn't already been the subject of definitive legal action. Great... :rolleyes:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

German muscle threatens European solidarity

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33535257

This is what I've felt all along. The Germans, who've done very nicely out of Europe thank you, are increasingly going to be seen as oppressors. It's quite evident that they're calling the shots and as such, they'll be the ones who cop the inevitable flak. Union? What union?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Looks as if the reasons to exit the EU are on the increase - not least to ensure that the UK is not complicit in the new wave of German (fiscal) expansionism. That said, I can see benefit in an Anglo-German Alliance with economies that would complement each other and with like-minded peoples to boot. It would also be a coming home for the Saxe-Coburgs.

Unity through equality.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

It was the Greeks with the fiscal expansion, with all their borrowing and spending, of which at least half won't be paid back, ie they stole it.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Whether they 'stole' it or whether others had ulterior motives for over-lending or whether the problems ought to have been foreseen or whatever....is not really of concern to me.

Getting out of the whole sorry mess asap is.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

ECB will back the Greek banks with extra .9 billion Euros --- just announced

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33595861

Another ringing endorsement...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The Greeks were fiddling the books on a widespread scale.
From 2010.
Didn't help that they had a law requiring Greek pension funds to have 77% of their money in Greek bonds. Must have seemed a good idea at the time and probably was.