Cable Forum - Brexit

With our Parliament? Nothing. With the EU nothing - except properly being prepared to leave with no deal. It was and still is the only leverage we have and we have to be believed we’ll use it, otherwise it ceases to be leverage, as May found out.

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Then they'll make the 39 billion conditional for any future arrangement.

So will we!

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They're the 2nd largest, or largest depending how you count, singular economic bloc in the world and they're on our doorstep. We can't not do a deal with them at some point.

Of course, it should be the first deal.

---------- Post added at 21:53 ---------- Previous post was at 21:52 ----------

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Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35996146)

You are making the false assumption Parliament will stand idly by. It has consistently shown it will not. A PM being “serious“ isn’t going to change a thing.

What will it do then?

Damien

24-05-2019 22:04

Re: Brexit

Vote of No Confidence if they really wanted, not passing any finance bill and constantly agitating the leadership. Waiting it out to October might be a bit hard in those circumstances.

A hardline PM probably could do it but they would be taking down their own career to do it. If any of the candidates has aspirations beyond this summer then life will be difficult for them.

Sephiroth

24-05-2019 22:07

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35996144)

What's going to stop the new PM facing the same problems are the old one?

---------- Post added at 21:46 ---------- Previous post was at 21:44 ----------

Then they'll make the 39 billion conditional for any future arrangement. They're the 2nd largest, or largest depending how you count, singular economic bloc in the world and they're on our doorstep. We can't not do a deal with them at some point.

That was my point. It is what we should have done at the start of the process and then wait for them to bend.

jfman

24-05-2019 22:14

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35996149)

Exactly. If no deal was credible or viable it’d have happened by now. The whole point of the extension is to give time to remain/revoke. Not to facilitate Brexit.

1andrew1

24-05-2019 22:19

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35996149)

Exactly. We covered the same ground earlier today but some seem in denial. I concluded

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35996077)

I don't see any of the current candidates interested in a temp PM position.

Pierre

24-05-2019 22:32

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35996149)

Vote of No Confidence if they really wanted, not passing any finance bill and constantly agitating the leadership. Waiting it out to October might be a bit hard in those circumstances.

That’s assuming Tory rebels and the DUP would vote against the Government on domestic issues. there’s no indication of that.

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a hardline PM probably could do it but they would be taking down their own career to do it. If any of the candidates has aspirations beyond this summer then life will be difficult for them.

Or cementing their place in history.

---------- Post added at 22:32 ---------- Previous post was at 22:29 ----------

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Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35996151)

Exactly. If no deal was credible or viable it’d have happened by now.

under a stronger PM willing to live up to their rhetoric it would have.

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The whole point of the extension is to give time to remain/revoke. Not to facilitate Brexit.

Under this PM yes it was. Any new PM knows they cannot travel the road of May. Any new PM would have to be a leave PM.

Damien

24-05-2019 22:35

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35996153)

That’s assuming Tory rebels and the DUP would vote against the Government on domestic issues. there’s no indication of that.

Why not? The Government has essentially been paralysed for weeks now because any significant legislation would have seen abstainions and rebellions. No reason to think Remainers won't now do the same. Only requires a few.

The bigger question is there are enough MPs to write off their Parliamentary careers by brining down their own Government. The option would be there though if they felt the PM was only interested in stalling until October.

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Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35996153)

Or cementing their place in history.

If that's the history they want then yes but I am not sure many of the contenders would be willing to have their only legacy as PM to be no deal Brexit and to cede power so easily.

Pierre

24-05-2019 23:17

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35996155)

If that's the history they want then yes but I am not sure many of the contenders would be willing to have their only legacy as PM to be no deal Brexit

Just Brexit.

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and to cede power so easily.

To whom?

1andrew1

25-05-2019 00:34

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35996156)

To whom?

Their successor.

Gavin78

25-05-2019 01:28

Re: Brexit

Now that TM is leaving could we possibly start a new Brexit thread?

Carth

25-05-2019 02:59

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 35996159)

Now that TM is leaving could we possibly start a new Brexit thread?

nah, lets jump back to the first one again seeing as we've not actually got anywhere since it started :D

papa smurf

25-05-2019 08:32

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35996162)

nah, lets jump back to the first one again seeing as we've not actually got anywhere since it started :D

I feel your pain.

1andrew1

25-05-2019 11:02

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35996162)

nah, lets jump back to the first one again seeing as we've not actually got anywhere since it started :D

Lol, let's just wipe out all the Brexit threads and start afresh when BoJo is in power. I think it will be a similar outcome, maybe faster paced.

Sephiroth

25-05-2019 11:17

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35996181)

Lol, let's just wipe out all the Brexit threads and start afresh when BoJo is in power. I think it will be a similar outcome, maybe faster paced.

You should be saying that the next PM must deliver the Referendum result - which is to leave the EU by 31-Oct.

OLD BOY

25-05-2019 11:40

Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35996129)

That is for Theresa May to answer. I suspect it was because she was aiming at a 'compromise', which in the end satisfied nobody.

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Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35996139)

It tells the truth unlike some organisations..

The truth as it sees it! What exactly is the point of Article 24 if it cannot be used? Of course it can be used, as you will see when Boris gets in.

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Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35996143)

The future PM should do the following:

1 Tear up the WA;

2 Ask the EU for an extension to negotiate a new WA;

3 Expect the EU to refuse and we leave on 31-October.

I don't expect the EU to do a trade deal with us after that because those charlatan's won't have got our 39 billion, which we should then put to good use for our country's further development.

It would be better to say we are leaving on that date, and offer to have both sides draw up a proposed trade agreement. Then on the day we leave we staple the UK version and the EU version together and start negotiating to iron out any differences. That document would enable us to invoke the protection period under WTO rules.

Those who say it cannot be done are those who refuse to believe that the EU will co-operate, but why should that be the case? They want a no tariff trade deal and frictionless trade even more than we do (because they export more to us than we do to them).

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