Cable Forum - Coronavirus

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36065230)

Gotta love those graphs/charts :D

Apparently they show I live in an area where I have 1% chance of testing positive for covid-19, and I'm also in the age group that has a 1% chance of testing positive for covid-19. . . does that mean my chances are now 1% of 1%? ;)

I'd say that calls for (yet) another large Brandy :Yes:

As a key worker in the food sector, we should be buying that brandy for you. :)

But unfortunately the pubs are closed. ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36065257)

Which data?

Ask JFMan

---------- Post added at 23:40 ---------- Previous post was at 23:37 ----------

I’ll have to see if I can get them in school through the critical worker route.

I’ve asked work to see if I qualify, and for a covering letter.

We'll just have to wait and see.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36065263)

Ask JFMan

I think she was referring to the articles you linked from October that painted a rosy picture of impacts of children because it was based on when they were largely in lockdown.

Hugh has linked a couple of times now to data showing children are the most likely age groups to have the virus (from ONS prevalence studies).

Minutes from Sage meeting of 17 December (published on Gov.uk website on 31 December) make it clear that a school age children are the most likely to bring the virus into a household - seven times more likely in the case of secondary school age.

There's tons of it out there. Germany closed their schools on 14 December before Christmas as a result of the role of school transmission and I don't accept "cultural differences" as a reason why British exceptionalism should apply.

Quote:

I’ll have to see if I can get them in school through the critical worker route.

I’ve asked work to see if I qualify, and for a covering letter.

I do wish you luck with it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36065146)

This isn't good news

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...rn-scientists/

I posted about that strain on on New Year's Eve, it's why they're trying to get as many people some sort of vaccination as possible

Does anyone know why if you live with someone who has a test you isolate for 10 days and if they develop symptoms the 10 days are restarted but if a different person you live with develops symptoms the 10 days aren't restarted? Might seem like a silly query but I'm about to walk out if a colleague returns and I've not had it answered sufficiently!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36065276)

Not quite sure where you got that from. I should imagine the "clock" is restarted each time. There's no notion of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd person, just "another person".

Any transmission won't be automatic or instantaneous. It could be transferred from A to B, towards the end of the infectious phase of A, and the similarly for from B to C. You can't be sure that the household is completely clear until after 10 days of the last person to have a positive test/show symptoms. Before that time, a yet non-infected person could suddenly become infected.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36065278)

From the NHS website I presume

The email sent by the junior manager says:

How Long you Need to Self- Isolate

If someone you live with has tested positive and:

They have symptoms- self isolate for 10 days from when their symptoms start

They have not had symptoms- self isolate for ten days from when they had their test

If they get symptoms while they're self- isolating the 10 days restarts from when their symptoms started

The 10 days does not restart if a different person you live with gets symptoms while you're self-isolating

No link in email annoyingly

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...d-19-infection

“If you live in the same household as someone with COVID-19”

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36065279)

Link to self-isolation rules.

The "someone" can also be the different person.
Read it as "whenever someone in your household".
Think of the situation of where there is a long gap between the events. You've finished self-isolating because of the first person, but a couple of months later, the "different" person becomes infected. Are you suggesting you shouldn't have to self-isolate because you've already self-isolated before? Wouldn't make sense.

I can sort of see where the confusion might be in the rules.
The reference to "first person in the household's" is about the start day of self-isolation.

Quote:

Your isolation period includes the day the first person in your household’s symptoms started (or the day their test was taken if they did not have symptoms, whether this was an LFD or PCR test), and the next 10 full days. This means that if, for example, your 10 day isolation period starts on the 15th of the month, your isolation period ends at 23:59 hrs on the 25th and you can return to your normal routine.

Perhaps they shouldn't have used the word "first".
It goes on to say.

Quote:

If you develop symptoms while you are isolating, arrange to have a COVID-19 PCR test. If your test result is positive, follow the advice for people with COVID-19 to stay at home and start a further full 10 day isolation period. This begins when your symptoms started, regardless of where you are in your original 10 day isolation period. This means that your total isolation period will be longer than 10 days.

The next paragraph says.

Quote:

If other household members develop symptoms during this period, you do not need to isolate for longer than 10 days.

Wouldn't make sense for that to apply other than where you have tested positive as set out in the previous paragraph.

The central point is that infections and infectious phases are not somehow synchronised within a household. Everybody doesn't get it simultaneously, and not everybody may get it at all. Whilst there is somebody in the household is in the infectious phase, there is a risk of somebody else in the household becoming infected. Doesn't matter whether that's the 1st, 2nd, or 20th person in the household in the infectious phase.

If somebody can be infectious for 8 days, they can pass it on on day 1 or day 8. Person A passes it on to B on that day 8. B then is still infectious 10 days later, and could then pass it onto C on the 18th day after the start.

Basically, self-isolate for 10 days from the last "event"(positive test or symptoms) in the household. Nothing else makes sense or will work.

I recognise this is old but the BBC in April published a graphic that indicated then that the self isolation period for those that don’t go on to develop symptoms ends based on the first case, not subsequent cases.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52366190

The PM Boris Johnson to hold press conference at 5pm with the chief medical officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty, and the Government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55542393

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36065303)

Will there be charts involved ? ;)

Why on earth children were made to go back to school for one day, would be a good question ? Enough damage/spreading might have been done yesterday to keep us in lockdown for weeks longer.

And why doesn't he act on the 'science' until the last minute resulting in more cases and longer/stricter lockdowns.

Wonder if they'll ask me on ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36065303)

More bluster from the PM, flanked by tweedle dum and tweedle dummer, followed by inane questions from hack journos.

I think I'll be inspecting my belly button fluff, see if it's changed colour recently.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36065306)

Will there be charts involved ? ;)

l would imagine Mr K as they might introduce us to some new ones.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36065306)

Ask if the decision to keep the schools open for one day was due to the fact the stock market was open and it'd let his pals dump shares before announcing lockdown.

Because rationally I can't see what changed between Sunday and Monday - other than giving parents false hope that the inevitable wasn't coming.