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denphone 24-05-2019 17:55
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35996108)

No, they won't, Den. Boris will get the support of the ERG and the DUP, giving him the ability to get a majority to leave the EU.
Who says Boris will be elected leader as l always find its usually the candidate that unites the Conservative party that ends up being the leader of the party.

OLD BOY 24-05-2019 17:58
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35996110)
The fact it's Boris flogging a dead horse doesn't change the reality the horse is dead. Parliament doesn't want this deal and Parliament doesn't want no deal.
Wrong. It's the Withdrawal Agreement that is dead. You won't be hearing much about that now, or the dreaded backstop. We can be confident of leaving now on 31 October.

---------- Post added at 17:58 ---------- Previous post was at 17:57 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35996112)
Who says Boris will be elected leader as l always find its usually the candidate that unites the Conservative party that ends up being the leader of the party.
He's the favourite so far, by a big margin.

jfman 24-05-2019 17:58
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35996113)
Wrong. It's the Withdrawal Agreement that is dead. You won't be hearing much about that now, or the dreaded backstop. We can be confident of leaving now on 31 October.
No - we can't. Parliament has clearly legislated in the past to avoid No Deal. It can, and will, do so again. Up to and including a vote of no confidence in the Government when the time is right, if required.

The dynamics against Theresa May will work against Johnson, Gove, Hunt or anyone else. Only a General Election can change this.

Leaving on 31 October is the new leaving on 31 March.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-...place-11727890

The people want a General Election!

OLD BOY 24-05-2019 18:06
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35996115)
No - we can't. Parliament has clearly legislated in the past to avoid No Deal. It can, and will, do so again. Up to and including a vote of no confidence in the Government when the time is right, if required.

The dynamics against Theresa May will work against Johnson, Gove, Hunt or anyone else. Only a General Election can change this.

Leaving on 31 October is the new leaving on 31 March.
You are wrong again. Theresa May lost the confidence of the ERG and DUP. Boris can get it back.

Anyway, if he can get confirmation that Article 24 of GATT can apply with an agreement between the UK and EU on the objectives to finalise a trade deal, suddenly 'no deal' is very attractive. Protection will provide peace of mind on our trading arrangements in the meantime, which will satisfy the renegade Conservatives, who will be chastened by the result of the EU elections.

jfman 24-05-2019 18:10
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35996116)
You are wrong again. Theresa May lost the confidence of the ERG and DUP. Boris can get it back.

Anyway, if he can get confirmation that Article 24 of GATT can apply with an agreement between the UK and EU on the objectives to finalise a trade deal, suddenly 'no deal' is very attractive. Protection will provide peace of mind on our trading arrangements in the meantime, which will satisfy the renegade Conservatives, who will be chastened by the result of the EU elections.
You are wrong. The problem isn't Theresa May - it's the policy. The ideologues in the ERG an DUP will continue to push for no deal, Parliament will continue to oppose.

OLD BOY 24-05-2019 19:08
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35996117)
You are wrong. The problem isn't Theresa May - it's the policy. The ideologues in the ERG an DUP will continue to push for no deal, Parliament will continue to oppose.
No, no, no! Employing the GATT legislation to enable the protection period is exactly what ERG members want, and the DUP will come on board without the backstop being part of the arrangement. All is good. At last.

denphone 24-05-2019 19:13
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35996113)

He's the favourite so far, by a big margin.
So where others favourite but they got beaten in previous leadership contests...

jonbxx 24-05-2019 19:21
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35996111)
I've seen all that nonsense, but this is put forward by people who don't want to see Britain leave. Look, Article 24 exists, and all that is required is a joint statement of intent about what the EU and the UK wants to achieve from a trade agreement.

Even if there were an objection raised by another country, it would take 2 years at least to go through the legal process, by when we should have a trade agreement.
You mean people like;


House of Commons Researchers - https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...-24-explained/
Chap who worked 18 years for the WTO - https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...interim-deals/
Columnist for Bloomberg and former WSJ editor - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...rade-deal-myth
Lecturer in International Law and a former Australian Trade Negoiator - https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUKKCN1PH24V
Professors in International Law and Kings College and Cambridge - https://ukandeu.ac.uk/clean-brexit-s...-doesnt-exist/


Even if we do trade with the EU under Article XXIV, that only covers goods and not services.


If we just winged it, relying on the slowness of the WTO to enforce, then we are breaking a global trade agreement at a time when we are supposed to be making deals with all of these countries. Not a good look to be seen breaking deals while trying to broker new ones. Doesn't make you look very trustworthy...

Angua 24-05-2019 19:29
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35996118)
No, no, no! Employing the GATT legislation to enable theprotection period is exactly what ERG members want, and the DUP will come on board without the backstop being part of the arrangement. All is good. At last.
It only applies if agreement is reached to continue whilst negotiations go ahead.

What on earth do people thing May's WA was trying to do, of not just this?

Escapee 24-05-2019 19:38
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35996105)
We may not have Exit Polls but we do have turnout numbers and, surprisingly, it's not been a blockbuster turnout. In fact it's only marginally higher than the last time: https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/stat...32062716448768
Probably not a real comparison because I believe local elections took place on the same day in 2014. The local elections would have been the reason many of those got off their backsides to vote.

OLD BOY 24-05-2019 19:50
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35996120)
You mean people like;


House of Commons Researchers - https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...-24-explained/
Chap who worked 18 years for the WTO - https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...interim-deals/
Columnist for Bloomberg and former WSJ editor - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...rade-deal-myth
Lecturer in International Law and a former Australian Trade Negoiator - https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUKKCN1PH24V
Professors in International Law and Kings College and Cambridge - https://ukandeu.ac.uk/clean-brexit-s...-doesnt-exist/


Even if we do trade with the EU under Article XXIV, that only covers goods and not services.


If we just winged it, relying on the slowness of the WTO to enforce, then we are breaking a global trade agreement at a time when we are supposed to be making deals with all of these countries. Not a good look to be seen breaking deals while trying to broker new ones. Doesn't make you look very trustworthy...
I know it covers only goods. It's the goods that are the problem.

Pierre 24-05-2019 19:51
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35996110)
The fact it's Boris flogging a dead horse doesn't change the reality the horse is dead. Parliament doesn't want this deal and Parliament doesn't want no deal.
Well, May didn’t have the gumption to follow up on her threats. Any new PM would be wise to learn from that or suffer the same fate.

Parliament doesn’t want a no deal, that has been proven. What has also been proven is that Parliament is impotent.

Parliament doesn’t get to decide, it won against May as she was spineless. But the current date is 31/10. Boris or whoever it is, has to show the spine the last PM didn’t and make a statement that is clear. That unless an acceptable deal can be achieved by the 31st we will leave with no deal. No if’s no but’s, no more extensions. Regardless of what Parliament wants.

If you want you PM tenure to be remembered, be remembered as the PM that fought against a Parliament that tried to subvert the will of the people and took us out of the EU and delivered on thevReferendum.

Be remembered for something, not like May, she will be remembered for abject failure.

OLD BOY 24-05-2019 19:53
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35996121)
It only applies if agreement is reached to continue whilst negotiations go ahead.

What on earth do people thing May's WA was trying to do, of not just this?
May's withdrawal agreement was only transitional in nature. It was a stopgap.

The deal we need to negotiate, from outside the EU, is a trade agreement.

Pierre 24-05-2019 19:54
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35996115)
No - we can't. Parliament has clearly legislated in the past to avoid No Deal. It can, and will!
No it didn’t,

There was an indicative vote, that’s all. No legislation whatsoever.

And May was too spineless to ignore it. Any future PM would be wise to learn from that.

jfman 24-05-2019 19:58
Re: Brexit
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35996118)
No, no, no! Employing the GATT legislation to enable the protection period is exactly what ERG members want, and the DUP will come on board without the backstop being part of the arrangement. All is good. At last.
An absolute fantasy. If it was that easy why haven’t we done it? Theresa would still be PM with her feet up and polling numbers in the 40s.

---------- Post added at 19:58 ---------- Previous post was at 19:55 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35996126)
No it didn’t,

There was an indicative vote, that’s all. No legislation whatsoever.

And May was too spineless to ignore it. Any future PM would be wise to learn from that.
Semantics. The extension in itself was legislation.


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