Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36156458)

Ukraine has taken more territory in 6 weeks than Russia did in as many months, and is presently destroying Russian hardware and personnel at a prodigious rate. They briefly attempted a rapid manoeuvre at the outset of their counter offensive, however as the US has denied them air power they actually can’t use much of the equipment or tactics they have been taught in Nato countries over the past several months. To draw a parallel, the US and allies air-raided Iraq for six weeks straight before invading. Ukraine rapidly realised it, too, would have to degrade Russian defences and without air power they have had to do that with stand-off weapons. These are principally US-suppled HIMARS artillery missiles, British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and increasingly drone-spotted artillery and some of their own Soviet era air defence rockets repurposed for long range ground attack.

The modified S-200 missiles are an interesting point in their own right, as they have the range to hit targets inside Russia, and there is evidence they have been used to do that. Over the past 48 hours Ukraine have also assaulted both the Sevastopol naval base and the Kerch bridge using naval drones of their own design. The Ukrainians are using their own ingenuity to fill the capability gaps in their Nato weaponry (the gap mainly being long range strike capability). Some very clever people in Washington have been trying to deny Ukraine such ability because they feared escalation. All they have actually achieved is to prompt Ukraine to develop capabilities the US can’t control at all. Which further gives the lie to Trump’s fantasy that he could stop this by picking up the phone.

Ukraine (rightly) believes it is in an existential conflict and most East European states agree and see themselves under long-term threat, a sense that will only be heightened if any future American administration goes cool on supporting Ukraine. It has no motivation to fight for anything less than what international law says its territory is, and it is unlikely its European allies are going to stop helping it to achieve that.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36156459)

I’ve had this conversation on here before, it may have well been with you Chris.

I’ll just leave this here, it may not age well.

I do not see an end to this conflict without negotiation. That’s it.

There will not be a “ total victory” for either side.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36156456)

No it won’t, but I’ll listen if you explain to me how that will happen.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36156456)

Trump can’t force Ukraine to do nothing. Trump never mentioned force at all.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36156456)

It’s not just cash though is it? If the US support it means something, if they don’t that also means something.

I don’t think Putin gives a flying f. About Europe. Militarily. Only NATO

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36156470)

But as a direct result of this war, Putin now has NATO on his direct border in the form of Finland.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36156471)

Russia already NATO on its direct border in the form of Norway, Latavia and Estonia.

Plus Poland and Lithuania border Russia's Kaliningrad region.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36156471)

Russia already NATO on its direct border in the form of Norway, Latavia and Estonia.

Plus Poland and Lithuania border Russia's Kaliningrad region.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36156479)

More nails in the coffin for Piers' theory.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36156472)

NB Trump is not going to be president. Even if he wins the republican nomination, are swing voters really going to select an indicted and possibly (by then) convicted criminal to be president, even if it isn’t technically against the constitution for him to rule from jail? That scenario is too absurd even for America.

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36157433)

Personally all Russian athletes (and many of the pro Russian) should be banned from all sports.

This should be done a a government level so the farce of penalising Wimbledon can't happen.