Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
(Post 35996027)
The Scottish independence referendum didn’t get one. IIRC the EU one didn’t either. I think we only get them for general elections in the UK.
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Referendums are harder to poll as they don't have a baseline from which to measure change. If there was another referendum (in either case, but Scotland might have to be quite soon) then they may have one because of the amount of data they have from the last referendum. They can then set up in demographically relevant areas to attempt to judge any change in mood.
In 2016 they could have had a 39 year old white male in Oldham saying he voted Remain but what good does that do them? However if they knew what this demographic did in this area in a prior referendum then a picture starts to be built.
---------- Post added at 22:43 ---------- Previous post was at 22:34 ----------
Pollsters probably hate referendums and popular votes anyway because of the binary nature of the result. You may only be 2% out but that's the difference between Remain or Leave and suddenly you look like an idiot. Wheres if you said it would be 56-44 and it was actually 58-42 then it looks like you got it almost spot in.
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