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Just had contact from someone who was at the GDip course I'm attending. They took LFT in the morning - negative, attended the day, felt grotty when home, retook test - positive.
We have a couple of the nasal only tests at home, last order delivered the ones swabbing throat I have huge difficulty with. I take them where I know I'm going to be in less controlled situation meeting others. Like the kid's meeting I attended last Saturday. |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947 It’ll be nice to see an end to all this finger-wagging nonsense. |
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They measure almost every other damn thing :( |
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The covid-19 death figures have been a bit odd lately. ONS figures from their website.
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I had a conversation with my son today about Personal Responsibility, because he hadn’t done his home work. …….nobody died, or was likely to die because he didn’t do his “ Grammer Hammer”…. That’s what it is called! There is nuance, risk, responsibility and much more. To try and simplify it as you are trying to do, is infantile and incorrect. |
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The figures for the UK have gone bonkers again.
No figures for yesterday (10th Feb), but today's figures for new cases is 220,396 higher than 9th Feb. Even if split between the two days that makes 110,198 per day which is well above the mid-to-high 60,000s it has been recently. And the 7-day rolling average of death jumped and fell from a plateau which is highly unlikely. |
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Where are you getting these from, Taf?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths just shows a steady decrease |
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Can you imagine how high the figures would be if everybody submitted details of when they have a winter cold?
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---------- Post added at 19:49 ---------- Previous post was at 19:27 ---------- They get their figures from both ONS and https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk to show any data input errors. |
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Nobody cares anymore, move along….
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I think it's probably correct. It's just that the figures are only weekly so they do look very steppy. And the last week is always artificially low because some deaths are reported late. Compare with this one I've done from the daily data. There really was a sudden rise, then flat, then a drop. I think the steep rise was the period where we had parallel pandemics of Delta and Omicron. Once Omicron became dominant, things stabilised. |
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Then the infection figures from LFTs that were found to be false positives by PCR tests were deleted, but not historically, but from that day's figures. So, over 3 days the results could be 4,4,4, but a test from day#1 found to be a false positive on day #3 would mean the records would show 4,4,3. I'm a bit wary about the dropping of many of the measures against infection, as the sudden rise and fall of cases due to omicron, is POSSIBLY sat upon a steady number of new delta cases. Only time will tell. |
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It's been said since early January.
"Omicron wipes Delta off map in many parts of England as health chiefs warn half of Europe will get infected" https://www.nationalworld.com/news/u...fected-3524278 |
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Given its milder, thats a good thing, right ?
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There were still 4 dates when figures weren't released though (2 for xmas, and 2 fairly recently). |
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BREAKING: Queen Elizabeth II has tested positive for COVID-19 and is experiencing light cold-like symptoms, Buckingham Palace has announced.
https://news.sky.com/story/queen-tes...-says-12538848 |
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The lengths Charlie will go to to try to get his bum on that throne …
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25,696 new infections today.
Whilst that's still a not inconsiderable amount, it's come down an awful lot in the last week or two. Certainly at the height around Christmas, it's possible that 10 times that amount was getting the virus every day, but either didn't test/report or just dismissed it as a cold and carried on. Some comments on here about omicron from a couple of months back have clearly not aged well. |
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wonder how high the figures will go once the isolation of the infected is ended
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Well, first off, it will probably be replaced with a strong suggestion that those with symptoms continue to test - until such time as they have wound down the 2bn a month taxpayers are currently spending on the mass testing, that is - and also, that those who then test positive, do at least isolate, that employers support those who are isolating, and that people do try and stay home if they're feeling ill. Other viruses and illnesses which are contagious don't have a legal compulsion to self-isolate after all. It's not as if we're going to be changing from living like hermits to everyone coughing all over the place overnight. |
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The only change is that people would then be expected to use their common sense and do it, as opposed to being legally compelled to. |
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I suspect now that more companies are set up for working from home those can that do so will do so when coming down with any virus. Helps stop it from spreading and is just nicer while you recover.
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The point is, hospital admissions continue to decline and the NHS is coping. So why obsess about the figures? It’s pretty well over in this country, thanks to Boris. ---------- Post added at 20:13 ---------- Previous post was at 20:11 ---------- Quote:
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If you're going to worry about what you might have, you'll end up in a very deep hole, with lots of tin foil. :dig: |
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---------- Post added at 13:10 ---------- Previous post was at 13:01 ---------- The real problem here is that the science element of the Government decision making has been deprecated. I have seen no statement by Whitty et al, underwriting the current changes. What is more obscure is the knowledge and awareness on the current immunity curve. It would be good to clearly educate people how long their last booster might last to provide confidence in the decision making. |
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They also like to give people warnings about smoking, drinking, 5 a day, red meat, exercise, chocolate, coffee, drugs, sunbathing etc etc . . . do we (as in the general public) really take notice? |
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Sajid Javid unveils roll out of 4th Covid jab for over-75s and vulnerable adults across UK
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...HS-news-update |
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I have a lot of time for Whitty and Vallance and the other scientists and what they think. But it is only one aspect of the response. Scientifically speaking, the best way to stop the virus spreading is still for everyone to stay at home. Yesterday's figure was just under 30k a day which is still a fairly significant amount, it was high for within the Delta outbreak, but looks low since we had much higher at the end of Dec/beginning of Jan, but then, we've had access to more testing than before since then. But everyone has had the offer of a vaccine, and aside for those with good reason not to take it, everyone either has or knows the risks of not doing it. They are never perfect and won't stop you getting covid or spreading it necessarily but they will usually prevent more severe outcomes. The general vaccinated population shouldn't be held back because of people not wanting a vaccine because someone on facebook said it has a 5g in it. But the scientists may well be aware of economic, social, etc effects of continuing restrictions but not necessarily have their focus on it nor be best placed to advise (yes I know CW has a PGDip in economics) because that job is primarily for cabinet to decide. |
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The vulnerable are still vulnerable just as they were before Covid. The Covid jabs will be like flu jabs, updated for the current dominant strain, etc. It was never previously mandated that people with flu had to isolate; it was guidance. |
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Nobody is suggesting people with covid or any other virus should go round everywhere coughing over people and making everyone else ill. They are just removing the legal requirement for a positive test result (which doesn't even define that a person is infectious) to isolate. Freedom from legal restriction should always be the case. If a legal restriction is applied, then it should be justified as to why it is necessary. These restrictions were temporary as we had no idea what the new virus was capable of and how we would manage it, the virus is now largely managed by not only the vaccines but also multiple options with antivirals which means that we are not only in a state where there is high immunity already but a much higher chance that people who do get ill will be treated. So does this justify having further restrictions? Why are legal restrictions necessary at this stage? |
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You say "Nobody is suggesting people with covid or any other virus should go round everywhere coughing over people and making everyone else ill". Well, this guy is: Quote:
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OK so, there are other points which need addressing first: - does Covid still represent a serious danger? Have they been vaccinated? What are the effects of anti virals? - how does this compare with the danger of them catching another virus such as cold, flu, noro, measles, ebola, etc from someone else? - are the measures in place for covid proportionate to the risk to them, with the preventions and treatments on offer, and to other viruses of similar risk to them? - are there any other measures you could put in place? What happened to these people before covid anyway? As for that guy, he's saying should they if they're not ill and test positive? So that test could be a false positive. Presence of a virus' RNA in a sample taken to run a PCR or LFT on doesn't make that person infectious to others does it? |
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For example, I was at university with an immunocompromised person (due to medication) and when they were in the middle of a course of those drugs they requested that the rest of us be especially careful about coming too close if we had so much as a sniffle. This was how those responsible for this person’s medical care proposed the risk be managed ‘in the wild’ - a generous dose of personal responsibility on this person’s part, augmented with a polite request for additional caution from those they spent the most time with. Covid is going to become endemic, just like flu and the common cold, and it will continue to pose an abnormal risk to certain individuals, while most of us shake it off. We have never considered it immoral that there are no laws forcing people to self isolate with these viruses, though as a society we do frown on those who sneeze all over others and, for the most part, encourage personal responsibility (though I think some advertising around cold and flu remedies has bordered on irresponsible in the past). Using the law to shortcut anyone’s personal responsibility and especially to curtail their freedom should be an exceptional response to extreme circumstances, yet I worry what we’re seeing here is a far too eager slide towards using legislation to enforce everyday morality. This is not good; as well as infantilising people it also creates an authoritarian streak in government that once established, may not easily be removed. |
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The point I am making is that it not yet clear, beyond reasonable doubt, that the vulnerable are not disproportionately at risk. The number of people with Covid are still large in number and so the chances of encountering an infected person, when they have no obligation to isolate, is significant. I feel the parallel with drink driving is a good one. Some people would argue that they can perfectly drive after 2 pints and so the law is curtailing their "freedom" but society disagrees. The balance of probabilities has been weighed against the driver who wishes to drink. In the same way, until we have clear data on the real world risks to the vulnerable, we should err on the side of caution. |
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The bottom line is that the people who are shouting for "freedom" are the ones who, typically, are not potentially at risk and do not have loved ones who are. It really does come down to "not my problem, mate". Maybe a reflection on who we are as a society? |
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I demand for the safety of my wife that the entire population of the U.K. wear masks and surgical gloves - all ages. If you do not know if you carry this bacteria or not you should isolate to be sure. Otherwise you’re saying “ not my problem mate” you selfish society. Or perhaps my wife should be super very careful, her safety is her responsibility, not someone’s she has never met, and not the states. Why should her personal medical circumstances impinge on another’s persons life? ---------- Post added at 21:19 ---------- Previous post was at 21:16 ---------- Quote:
My freedom to drink and travel to the place I want to drink has not been taken away. |
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The comparison doesn’t fly, no matter how much you may want it to. |
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The number of cases in the UK (in the last 7 days) is 309,260, the population is about 67 million, so roughly 0.46%. Many of those are of course unlikely to be out and about while ill, but even if you said 50% of them are, thats about 0.23% (about 1 in 430). The vulnerable will already be taking precautions (as they always have) so the chances of them "encountering an infected person" are really quite small, not significant. |
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Boris Johnson made a point that in Germany it's far less common to go into work if you're ill with a virus and maybe we need to think like that. I think that's a good way to go. Prior to COVID I think not only did people go into work with cold or flu symptoms but it was almost viewed as an amicable trait to get into work when ill. Obviously now a lot more people can work from home so it's easier to do.
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Well , the number of deaths has now reduced to below that of a normal winter. It’s time to stop obsessing about Covid.
Just take sensible precautions and stop demanding that those of us that want to get back to normal to stay indoors and hide in a cupboard. We never behaved like this before and it’s time to get back to where we were. I’ve had enough of being controlled and so have most of us. |
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMJSCOiW...jpg&name=small What if you cannot afford to stay at home? |
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They seem to have decided to lapse the legal requirement to self-isolate with a similar lapsing with SSP back to pre-pandemic levels. Ultimately this is probably the right way to do it; temporary legislation forced the change and the actual details are probably somewhere else. But it should definitely be the case that people shouldn't have to go into work if they are ill with something which could infect others. And this should have always been the case before COVID - the immunocompromised people have to work too and if someone goes in with something which is mild to them then it might make them ill, or if someone else in the office who is healthy lives with an immunocompromised partner, parent, or child, then they could take the illness home. It's common sense to suggest that these people should be working from home if they are well enough and if their job allows them to, and if not, they should be off sick until they are better, and their SSP supports this. There should also be similar measures of support for people on things such as zero hours/flexible contracts or self-employed people who are booked in to work on a less concrete basis and they should also be covered for the jobs they would have done were they not ill. People shouldn't have to make the choice of whether to go into work ill and be able to pay the bills or be off ill and not be able to pay. Given that a fair amount of firms with office based staff are only likely to be planning a part time / flexible working approach where they work some days at home and some in the office, and with this being created during various periods of restrictions, it's something more employers have the facility to do anyway, and which having set up they're less likely to then change back at least straight away or permanently. Much as I don't think they work for the general public who are not ill, I can also see that people will take to wearing masks if they have to go out and aren't feeling well, are in a hospital environment, or are on crowded public transport where there is a higher risk of transmitting disease. It would be good if this was continued, for people to be encouraged to wear better masks and not the disposable paper or cheap cloth masks as they have a better effect. There are clearly a few ways we can do things differently now the pandemic has largely finished here. |
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Many people aren't lucky enough to have an employer that pays full sick pay from day one. They have to rely on SSP and the 3 waiting days . . which nets them a 'wage' of just under £40 for the first week of sickness and a shade under £100 every week after that. |
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That's why the behaviour in Germany is more about hard cash than anything else, as ianch99 has highlighted. |
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There is one change from pre-covid and that is that many companies have now shown that some staff can work from home and do so well. They have also put in the infrastructure to allow this to happen. So unlike pre-covid if you do feel unwell there is a better chance that you can stay at home and continue to work.
This doesn't quite work for other jobs but many of them are outside or not in closed spaces so maybe less chance of infection. Of course if you need to travel to work on public transport... I still have quite a few cheap Chinese masks so not going to buy others until they've gone and that will last a few months. |
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Yes, so today's figure will include all the positive tests for today, Saturday and Sunday, expect some people will react to it without thinking of that.
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The thinking may be sound in major cities but in lesser developed areas it's far easier and cheaper to run an old banger than it is to pay for a taxi every day or to use a public transport. |
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A taxi trip into Nottingham city would cost me about £15 - £20 (each way). The bus is about £4 each way, but obviously I have to walk to the bus stop. (about 15 mins from me, so not great when its raining or icy). The bus also takes over an hour, a car about 25 mins. |
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