Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

One you clearly can’t answer. I’ll settle for that as success. :)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Just to clarify ... are you proposing such a scenario unfolding after a referendum?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

So much animosity :(

I usually enjoy reading input ffom both sides but this is silly......

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

'sigh' crap and repeats on the TV, crap and repeats on here . . I'm off back gaming :p:

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49541942
So the UK Govt. won't agree not to break the law. Well that's 'carte blanche' for the rest of us ! #chaos

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

He said he can’t comment on it, as he doesn’t know what it is.

E.g. would you commit to obey every law, before you knew what it was?

What if the next law passed was people with K. In their name would be castrated by a hungry pig?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I don't agree that I can't steal from people, so that law doesn't apply to me ? Tbf he looked distinctly uncomfortable when he heard the crap coming out of his own mouth.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

He was asked an impossible question.

Do you agree to be bound by something you have no idea what will be.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I think he knows what the legislation will be, we all do. No Brexit without a deal. Regardless, the law is the law or you can't expect anyone else to respect the law.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Can you do my lottery numbers while you’re at it.

It will be really interesting how they frame that in law..........

Says the man who has never done 33 mph in a 30......i’m Guessing, St Mr of K. Who has never broken the law, ever.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

It's hardly reasonable to say it's an "impossible" question. The law is the law. If they want to challenge the law there's a process for that. If they want to repeal or amend it there's a process too.

The idea of going renegade and ignoring it isn't an impossible question.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

For clarity - nein, non, ne, nao, ei, nej, nee, ochi, etc. ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Bloody hell, if you don’t know what the law will be, what the actual statute is. How can you have an opinion on it?

Have you all lost your minds?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Nobody said anyone was going to ignore it. How can anyone commit to something that does not exist.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

You either agree with the rule of law or you don't. That's hardly a matter of losing one's mind.

---------- Post added at 21:30 ---------- Previous post was at 21:29 ----------

He could have said the Government would seek to use every available avenue to challenge it.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Why would he seek to challenge it, when it doesn’t yet exist?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Further to what we were discussing the other day, politicians prefer not to box themselves into corners or make promises circumstances may require them to break. They especially don’t like committing to do or not to do something based on something that hasn’t happened and may not happen. That makes them a hostage to fortune. Marr knew he wouldn’t get a commitment out of Gove when he asked the question. That was quite possibly why he asked it; Minister refuses to rule out lawbreaking is a nice headline for the final Sunday of the silly season. And this year’s has been especially silly.

Of course the government isn’t going to intentionally break the law. But you can bet they will identify every loophole in what will be very rushed and cobbled together legislation and will exploit them, ostensibly in good faith, yet always aware that a judge may rule their actions unlawful at some later point.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Latest move to keep rebels in line just announced:
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-rebe...drawn-11800021

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I wonder if it will be retroactive, so the ERG Tory MPs who defied the Whip will also be de-selected?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Bozza is a bit of a drama queen isn't he ? He's seems to be desperate to prove to the EU that no deal is a possibility, when it isn't, and they know it.

Majority of 1, only takes one. Even if they are chucked out some MPs have said they'll stand as Independents in an election, so that's goodbye those seats, along with all the ones in Scotland.

I sense utter panic at No 10.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

So they’ll just let the opposition legislate and not seek to stop them?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Rory Stewart has said he wants to be included on the list of those who'll be kicked out of the party. The threat seems to have gone down badly but Jouros are speculating Johnson is trying to force the election.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Get used to it. As i mentioned earlier, this country is bitterly divided and will be for a generation or more.

---------- Post added at 22:36 ---------- Previous post was at 22:31 ----------

I'm Spartacus! Says Rory

Seriously, the lurch to the right is now being played out in plain sight. First they came ..

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I expect Jo Swinson may be getting some interesting calls over the next few days. ;)

---------- Post added at 23:24 ---------- Previous post was at 23:16 ----------

I'm not sure how many MPs would lose their seats if they stood as independent MPs. Presumably those Remain-voting MPs in Leave areas would be vulnerable to a new Conservative MP, but the Brexit Party may split the vote.
What this manoeuvring strongly suggests is that BoJo doesn't have a solution to the Irish border issue and that's been bluster.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Link
Link
Link


As usual the millions of Slavs killed aren't deemed worthy of a mention.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

What the what now?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

With such deep generational divisions prevalent this country will be deeply divided for for a long time to come sadly.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

M’sieur Le Non Sequitur est arrivée... ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The country as we know it won't exist.

At least without Scotland and the occupied part of Ireland the people of England can be happy among themselves. To think it was once the Empire on which the sun never set.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The break up of the union if it happens will lie solely at the foot of self serving politicians...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

More very recent Project Reality as the leaks continue...

Brexit crisis: Govt analysis suggests chaos at Dover in event of no-deal departure
Link

Irish border after Brexit – all ideas are beset by issues says secret paper
Link

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Also at those that voted for it, they were told.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

So again worst case scenario. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU and it still has delays. Are these delays any longer then issues created by bad weather or trade union strikes? These things would still happen if the Withdrawal Agreement was approved.

Nobody would suggest trying to overturn a Scottish "yes" to independence, when the problems for them would be even worse, even if the UK remained in the EU.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Turkey isn't transitioning from a frictionless border so I fail to see the relevance.

Snow melts, workers return. Are you suggesting the solution is to rejoin the EU within a few days?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Incorrect.
1. Re-read. "Even with the best-case scenario..."
2. If the withdrawal agreement was approved they would not happen as we would be more closely aligned than Turkey is.
3. Don't know what Scotland's got to do with this. I'm talking about up-to-date impact reports.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Any legislation voted for in parliament requires Royal Assent. Boris could advise the Queen not to give it. So he can not break a law, that doesn’t become law. He has this one last nuclear option and to assert that the Government is the only executive of the day.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

That'd be good if that happened. Vive le republique!

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

A Customs Union still creates delays, and they've had more than 20 years to sort it out(ie the EU making it more difficult).
Link

Bad weather and strike delays can easily last longer than any of the worst case scenario delays. If the UK can routinely cope with those, then it can cope with any of these supposed delays.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

No, it can't on that basis alone. You are assuming we can put things in place to mitigate the delays and respond to them. Yet nobody can say what these would be, how much they would cost or when they could be implemented from. There's no return to "business as usual".

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

1. 2 hour delay is nothing
2. It would still all happen from 2021, even with the backstop which is just an ongoing customs union.
3. Would anybody suggest Scotland shouldn't be allowed to vote for independence for these SAME reasons?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

1) A two hour delay, multiplied across the millions of consignments entering and exiting the country isn't nothing. This isn't like when you have to hang around A&E for a few hours to see a doctor. That only inconveniences you, at minimal cost.

2) 2021 gives time to prepare.

3) There's no indication that Scotland wouldn't immediately be in a customs union with the EU had it became independent.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I'm saying the effect of any delays is not as drastic as certain people are making out. A customs union is not a solution to these suggested delays, so they will happen whatever. If the country can cope with a 3 day weather delay, it can cope with delays of a few hours.

If a clear cut democratic decision is allowed to be overturned by the losing side, where does it all end? Labour governments bring disaster, especially any involving the current lot. Should they be forced to be overturned, or is it as always, only Liberals and the Left get to choose when a "principle" applies.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

1. Incredible. Moving from a two-minute delay to "Even with a best-case scenario, with businesses as prepared as they possibly could be, vehicles will be waiting for two to three hours, with 50% of vehicles waiting for at least eight." would have serious implications as both the report and the transport have told the government.
2. 2021 will allow more time for revising supply chains and building port infrastructure even if a deal doesn't give us a very close trading relationship.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

It's astounding that you can't tell the difference between one off exceptional circumstances and day in day to circumstances.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Please read the article. If you get such delays permanently, it becomes uneconomic to run the service.
No one's debating overturning a referendum in these reports.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

1) Delays of more than 2 hours occur all the time for one reason or other. The UK doesn't collapse as a result.
2) Prepare for what? There is no solution as the issues that Turkey still has demonstrates. Turkey has had more than 20 years, and the EU still holds things up.
3) There are still delays with a customs union. It's mere speculation that Scotland would be in a customs union with the EU. Even so, their main problem is the border with England. A EU-Scottish customs union wouldn't address that.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

They don't occur "all the time". They're the exception, not the rile.

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up a non-EU member states and their customs union. Each customs union is different so unless ours was identical we can't say the same would happen.

Again, not that Scotland have anything to do with it, without knowing the detail you couldn't say what delays would or would not occur.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Pathetic. So you want to remain in a corrupt EU. Give up the crown, for what, military rule?

To think in such small terms. In your dreams. Monarchy here to stay. Did you not study history?

We already were a Republic once, didn’t quite work out that well.

The Queen barely flex’s the power she welds and quite rightly, for a long long time, she has kept the Monachy out of the political arena. She’s being dragged in because the Democratic will of the people is being ignored, we voted to leave the EU. We have a Remain led Parliament subverting Democracy, not Boris Johnson, these people shouting, “Stopthecoup”, never actually seen a real coup, tanks, rogue army etc.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Maybe we can be more helpful with our clarifications. Let me try an analogy.
If your train journey takes two minutes but is occasionally delayed by bad weather or a train strike, you will still use it.
If it is regularly delayed by 2-3 hours and you have a 50% chance of it being delayed by 8 hours, you will make other arrangements like the plane or car. These will be more costly in time or money.
Over time, you might find it better to buy somewhere closer to work or choose a new job. But you can't do this instantly.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Which would mean less traffic, therefore shorter delays.

The only solution to overcoming these "devastating":rolleyes: delays is overturning the referendum vote and remaining in the EU.
Link
And yet

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The best coups happen without tanks and the army.
It's as undemocratic to force through no-deal against the will of a democratically-elected Parliament as it is to ignore the referendum vote. But many people have become too blinkered to see this, they just want to see their side win at all cost.

---------- Post added at 10:30 ---------- Previous post was at 10:26 ----------

Sounds like the penny is dropping. What do fewer journeys mean? Fewer jobs? Fewer goods? Fewer exports?
Maybe that's why UK factory production is suffering?
Sounds like the Turkish border issues are unrelated to its relationship with the EU, more its efficiency. Turkey is a far poorer, emerging economy. Both the UK and France are richer and a lot more developed.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Train journey less costly in time or money than plane or car?:confused: Since when?

Are hauliers moving trucks around just for the sake of it?

---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 10:32 ----------


Link (again)
The Turks have done everything they can, It is the EU imposing the costs and restrictions.

The problem is that we're too polite to return the nastiness coming from the EU.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I said or. Quicker in many cities to get the train in due to congestion. Parking charges mean it's often cheaper too. And catching a train from Leeds to London is far quicker than driving it and cheaper than flying it. But we digress, hopefully you understand the difference between a short-term weather problem and a long-term change.

You would have to pose this unusual question to the road hauliers.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Rubbish-Which coups are they then?

Also, our side won the referendum, or did you forget that detail?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Perhaps you should read this article.

No-deal Brexit: ‘Nothing is going to happen’ at Dover and Calais, insists head of French ports
'If both sides do their homework, traffic will be completely fluid,' says the man in charge of Calais

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I don't see why wanting to live in a republic is being tied to wanting to remain in the EU in your example?

I'd happily settle for a President. Even if people voted for Boris.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

It's obviously not a coup. I think it's poor behaviour from Boris Johnson, as is the implicit threat of just ignoring Parliament, but it still falls short of being a coup. Fair short in fact, difference universe short.

People need to calm down. There is enough to be angry about without using terms like coup and for that matter traitor.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

"If both sides do their homework"; notably he doesn't say what this homework entails, how much it costs, or who bears these costs. Do we need more staff? More infrastructure? Does business need better information or training on these new processes?

How much third country traffic presently enters Calais?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I've read it - one person's opinion compared to a report based in far more information. I commend the Sky News report to you.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

When some start using words like coup and traitor they have weakened their argument considerably.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Delays in imports are down to us, delays in exports are down to the EU.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

If only it were that simple.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Are you suggesting we - the UK - start to invest in our own manufacturing, farming, and services? it's about time someone mentioned it ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Typical.

I'll ignore the report that doesn't support my argument, and hold up the one that does as gospel...................

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The good news is it looks like we are heading for a Brexit election. Party time.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Be careful what you wish for, almost 50% of the UK are party poopers ;) :D

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Yes, we should - but it would take decades of investment and infrastructure build.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Very likely as l expect Boris Johnson to put down a dissolution motion and then use the prerogative power to move the date to after October the 31st.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

An election is an election. Can't say fairer than having the opportunity to vote for or against no deal.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

A huge amount would then depend on what Nigel Farage does. If he’s holding hands with Boris under the table - highly likely, given the sudden enthusiasm for an election - then the Tories will be the only out-and-out Brexit party in any seat that matters. The continuity remain vote will be split two or three ways, depending on where in the country you are.

National polling for the Tories is still a little too low for my liking (around the 35% mark) but local variation may count for a lot and I suspect they are holding on to some useful private polls in central office, otherwise they wouldn’t be so gung ho right now.

However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We still have an attempted opposition coup and the ritual slaughter of the Tory Left to look forward to before anything else happens this week.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

If that's what you want to do, I can't stop you. I can suggest that you critically evaluate which is most likely to be accurate - the views of one self-interested party or impartial analysis of the entire sector.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Statement at 6pm. Here we go.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

According to Sky’s Beth Rigby, Boris Johnson won’t be announcing a general election tonight in his statement at 6pm.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Apparently he'll announce that if Parliament does anything on Wednesday then there will be an election October 14th.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

This from Robert Peston.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The Oct 31st deadline was set by the EU. MPs cannot overturn that.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Well, that was enthralling - he didn’t even mention the pup’s name...

And he forgot to ruffle his hair before he came out.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Floating the date is meant to to reassure Corbyn that Boris won’t disssolve Parliament until November, I.e. after Brexit. 14 October is symbolic - it retains the same amount of time as the prorogation wold have allowed for Brexit debate prior to 31 October, and it underscores the sense of urgency by not being on a Thursday, as is almost always the case.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Looks like the EU will, though. Mind you, that won't prevent Boris from retaining that deadline.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The EU said they wouldn't extend it again without good reason. What is meant to be that good reason?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Macron won’t be in favour of any extension.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Agreed, that was his previous stance when he wanted to look strong against a background of rioting. He's got no problem with it now, apparently.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...l-mps-succeed/
https://inews.co.uk/news/eu-leaders-...-gordon-brown/

---------- Post added at 19:22 ---------- Previous post was at 19:21 ----------

Disagree mate and I voted Remain. It's a broader church than you might hope.

---------- Post added at 19:23 ---------- Previous post was at 19:22 ----------

Yes, that was the biggest revelation for those BoJo admirers who couldn't believe he did that.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I think BJ is finding that being PM isn’t the morsel of micturition he thought it was going to be - he may end up going into the record books, but only by beating George Canning’s record*...

*he’s got until November 19th this year

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

He has got a honeymoon period though.;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Something about a 7-week itch me thinks. ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Well, if anyone is going to have an itch, it’ll be BJ, given his "proclivities"... ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The EU will always extend. Remember, us and Germany bankroll that perfidious establishment. :)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Let’s take advice from the Chief Economist of a bank whose share value has dropped 85% in the last 10 years, and expects prosecution for its part in a $20 billion money laundering scheme...

This is the man who said that "notwithstanding the current political crisis, the Russian economy is likely to improve in 1998. Recent indicators point towards faster growth in output and a pick-up in domestic demand as well as a decline in inflation to single digits". Within a few months, Russia dramatically devalued its currency, it defaulted on its debt and suffered inflation of 84%.

He also said in May 2008 that the international monetary system was well placed to withstand the sub-prime crisis, and that a pessimistic outcome was not credible.

So, if you don’t mind, I don’t find his predictions convincing...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

These appear to be the list of Tory MPs who'll no longer be Tory MPs (or members of the Tory party for that matter) come tomorrow as they plan to rebel:

• Gauke
• Stewart
• Greening
• Burt
• Harrington
• Sandbach
• Grieve
• Letwin

Could also include:

• Lidington
• Vaizey
• Brine
• Hammond
• Clark
• Clarke
• Bebb
• Soames
• Lee
• Gyimah
• Milton

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...25038712610816

I imagine their colleagues will go for it but I imagine there will be a lot of discontentment amongst the non-ERG members of the Tory party especially considering the ERG, include cabinet and Boris himself, voted against the Government when it came to May's deal. There are people there who voted for May's deal each and every time and this will be their first rebellion.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Desperate, unethical, canny or all of these?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/stat...87490934054914

⁩

---------- Post added at 22:22 ---------- Previous post was at 22:17 ----------

Oops, that's the kind of person you want to be playing for the other team and not batting for you!

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Point of order.

Boris Johnson cannot call a General Election/dissolve Parliament - not his decision. It requires (at least) one Commons vote, and needs 2/3rds of MPs approval.

:D

btw, not sure of the logic process that seems to believe if a majority vote for the bill (which has now been published by Hilary Benn) which would force the PM to request a Brexit delay to 31 January 2020 unless MPs had approved a new deal, the same majority would then vote for a dissolution of Parliament/General Election which would cause a No Deal Brexit to happen...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Is there enough Parliamentary time left? :D

I guess there would be sufficient Labour MPs up for an election to get the 2/3 approval would there?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Unless Labour decide it's not in their interests to hold it right now. They send Johnson back to the EU to 'get on with it'.

But yeah I don't think there is any suggestion the opposition won't back an election. They might try to put some laws around it to prevent No 10 from moving the date.

---------- Post added at 22:38 ---------- Previous post was at 22:37 ----------

Philip Hammonds constituency have just 'confirmed his reselection'. So Tory HQ will have to override his constituency party and force someone else into the seat to deselect him (which I believe they have to power to do)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

What a film!

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Credit where it's due, that's quite a cunning move from his constituency party. I wonder if other constituency parties will follow suit?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

No point of order required- the whole point of trying to reassure Corbyn is that they need his votes to call an election.

And the reason why the Commons might vote for an election is that it dangles the possibility of a Labour government being in post before the end of October.

Tony Blair is right, of course, it’s a bear trap. But it’s one Corbyn’s messiah complex might just oblige him to fall into.

---------- Post added at 23:45 ---------- Previous post was at 23:41 ----------

Reselection planning in Hammond’s constituency has been in the planning for a little while now. It’s not quite the ringing endorsement it appears by the way; they contrived to get it rubber stamped by a sub committee rather than the whole local party. Someone down there seems to have wanted to avoid a scene. There might even be those who would be happy to see his selection overridden by central office.