Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Free movement of labour would be fine with me. We are going to continue to need immigration to fill certain positions in our economy, and doing it via the EEA in this way is a very straightforward way of doing it.

If it's handled well, it can be made to satisfy most moderates on both sides of the argument.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Yup, just a pity it's been handled so badly for so long. Free movement and free citizenship needn't be the same thing IMHO.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I don't think many have a problem with contributing immigration as we all recognise the benefits in that it's the low skilled and illegal immigration that's the problem. I'd like to see a continuation of skilled immigration running parallel with a proper mid to high skill adult training in the UK so that we give unemployed people here the opportunity to obtain meaningful employment. Also for those unemployed who will not accept training be told that take any position available within six months or lose benefits.

For the vast majority of unemployed the chance to retrain for a skill we have a shortage of would be snapped up and for that very small minority who will not work by choice we need to remove choice from the options. I never thought I'd support something like that but over the last few months I've heard numerous younger people talking about how benefits are enough for them and they prefer no work and benefits over taking a job. I'm not saying it's widespread and I'm only talking about 15-20 but to be young fully fit and choosing not to work is a waste of their lives as well as something we cannot afford or allow as a society.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

So far it does appear we won't retain membership of the single market but maybe banks will get a deal (presumably in exchange for something): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...cess-on-brexit

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Full free market and financial passporting access, access to ERASMUS, EU research programmes, free movement for UK citizens within the EU come to mind immediately.

What's the fundamental objection to it if the terms are right?

---------- Post added at 22:44 ---------- Previous post was at 22:42 ----------

Indeed. There are no benefits at all to the EEA just as there were none to the EU. The 48.1% who voted to remain are just morons.

---------- Post added at 22:45 ---------- Previous post was at 22:44 ----------

Absolutely. This would also be the least 'disruptive' way for us to leave the EU. Obviously we're going to, I'm not going to delude myself that we aren't, but if we can have a deal that's something like the best of both worlds, and acceptable to the majority of the UK it clearly makes sense to follow it.

---------- Post added at 22:54 ---------- Previous post was at 22:45 ----------

No idea why the Pound would drop on such news, I thought we had a glorious future in or out of the single market. David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox say so. Works great for me as I'm due a bonus paid in US Dollars at the end of the month but not so great for the economy.

UK based financial services might be able to get some access to the EU via equivalence of regulation, however companies have to meet an assessment ruled upon by a body we've no control over, based on rules we'll have no control over that can be changed through means we have no control over.

The thing I'm stuck on is what exactly we have to offer the EU in return for special considerations for our financial services industry? We have nothing they can't reciprocate in spades. We can certainly decide all the EU migrants here can't be here anymore, then enjoy the benefits as mostly healthy, employed, working age people leave the UK to be replaced by retirees. Beyond that, no idea. :confused:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Fine by me. Obviously the jobs in question would be legitimate. Not simply 'cousin Ahmed' (or Bob/Ishmael/Gupta) saying that there was a job.
Edit: I voted for control of immigration, not zero immigration (actually, I voted for removal of EU control)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

It's just the EU with another name basically .

The single market is too restrictive to trade ,our economy relies far too much on the banks and other financial institutions so in my opinion we do not need or want the single market or financial passporting ,it's made the UK far too blinkered to the rest of the world and solely dependent on Brussels .So no ,in my opinion EEA membership is not an option we should be looking at and besides all of that one of the core principles of EEA membership is free movement of people ,this cannot be changed for one country or what is the point of the EU and EEA ?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Being in the EEA in no way prevents the UK diversifying its economy however we are where we are and financial services represents ~12% of both GDP and tax receipts. Personally I don't fancy a massive recession in the name of not being too dependent on financial services. It will take decades to rebalance the economy without causing extreme pain and can be done in or out of the EEA. The UK made the decision to increase dependency on it. As far as being dependent on Brussels the UK has been steadily, even within the EU, trading more and more outside of the single market. Clearly not that much of a dependency if, even in the customs union, we were able to reduce it.

Think you're mistaking the single market for the EU's customs union. The EU's customs union certainly restricts trade, presents common external tariffs to outside trade and prevents member states making their own trade deals. EEA membership does not, we control our trade policy in every way.

The principle isn't free movement of people it's specifically free movement of workers and family members. No changing of this to suit one country or another.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyour...FTU_3.1.3.html

The EEA is a very long way from being within the EU. Check it out a bit more.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I did and came up with this

http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreemen...sic-features#1

Basically any member of the EEA has the same rights as full EU members ,we just voted against that so would anyone want to rejoin a club where anyone from the EU can move here and any trade agreement has to be cleared by Brussels and the other 27 remaining countries .Forget Europe it's a dying club

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Only those relating to the single market. You don't get the social chapter stuff.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

we still have to abide by the core principles of the EU and 2 of those are the whole problem

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Like a lot of other people I'm sure. What's wrong with wanting that I wonder? :shrug: I bet there's not a single person here who'd be happy if their local council said that it'd be fine for any number of people to come and live in their street, village, town...

As it stands we have no control over EU migration and given the numbers involved that has to be worrying, especially at a time when the EU's future doesn't appear that rosy and far more people are clearly wanting to come here than go there.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Travel to Europe will cost me £0, as:

1. I don't have a passport, and won't pay the £70 or so to get one.

2. why go to Europe when there are better places to visit here.

I'll only get one if a job requires it and they pay for it.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

For those in the EEA no trade agreement has to be cleared by Brussels. Again you're confusing the Single Market with the customs union.

Whether it's a dying club or not it's still 40% of our exports, and access to its market is a big motivation for international companies to employ people here.

So you want to forget Europe and you think we should get rid of our financial services sector. I'm quite glad you aren't a politician :)

---------- Post added at 21:24 ---------- Previous post was at 21:23 ----------

Whatever floats your boat; I prefer to live in a bigger world :)

---------- Post added at 22:56 ---------- Previous post was at 21:24 ----------

So it was really worthwhile having that referendum to get some harmony into the Conservative Party over the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...hard-brexit-c/

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Just leaving this here as a reminder why it's so bizarre that there are Tories so horny over 'hard Brexit'.

Putting us at the mercy of such states as our #1 fan Argentina who may want a chat about the Falklands, or Spain, who may rather like the look of Gibraltar.

This is a pretty bizarre definition of taking back control - putting our economy at the mercy of a large part of the rest of the world.

Welcome to a globalised world of supra-national institutions and complex legal frameworks.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Maybe the best idea is not to go for a trade deal with the EU or use the WTO model.

If we simply left the EU and the single market, those EU countries like Germany who require a deal would be coming to us and would no doubt accelerate the organising of trade deals in order to sell their products.

In the interim before declaring Article 50 we could, as the government are doing now, have exploratory talks with interested potential trading partners.
This might speed-up the process of arranging a deal once we leave the EU.

Then again, now that Tony Blair is shutting down his commercial interests, perhaps he is preparing himself for a crack at the EU presidency and a possible reform of the EU that allows the UK to stay a member but on better terms.

At this point in time anything is possible, even flying pigs!! LOL!!

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Excellent plan with a couple of minor flaws that come to mind initially:

1) EU countries can't make independent trade deals.
2) WTO members can't reasonably make trade deals with non-WTO states.

Think it might be worth your checking out what the WTO actually do and why no-one has suggested the UK not bother with the WTO.

---------- Post added at 16:08 ---------- Previous post was at 16:02 ----------

I should mention on the less depressing side none of the obstacles are insurmountable, they will almost certainly just take a pretty long time.

In the interim we're at the mercy of the EU being kind enough to provide us transitional arrangements that won't have people who previously couldn't care less about politics protesting on the streets about democracy.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Given his track record as Peace Envoy I reckon he'd be ideally suited to joining the ranks of delusional political failures running the EU and all the more reason for us to have autonomy from it.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

My god man everytime you post you make it sound as if trading outside of the EU simply cannot be done ,i'm wondering how the vast majority of the world that exists outside of the EU actually manages on a day to day basis .I think your just scared to cut the apron strings that are the EU ,don't panic ,it will be fine ,we will manage just like all the other trading outside of the EU and EEA do

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I was thinking about deals post Brexit. Once we leave the EU we can trade with those who wish to trade with us as we are no longer EU members. I can't see Germany and others not wanting to trade.

If we have to go with WTO membership then fair enough but we can put the spadework in via informal talks to sketch our what kind of deal countries want with us and later go into formal talks a bit more prepared, hopefully cutting the time it takes to get a deal organised.

Not sure what kind of deal the EU will give us in the interim but I think we will have to give up the single market if we want to control immigration. Not sure too if France will continue the current deal re: immigration arrangements at Calais. Strange that the EU do not want to limit migration to their countries so long as those arriving can be routed on to the UK.

It will be interesting to see what happens if and when the UK invokes Article 50 and also what happens in the German and French elections as that may have a bearing on things.

---------- Post added at 16:36 ---------- Previous post was at 16:34 ----------

Well, you and I know that but does he?

Politics is a funny old game and we don't always get politicans who care about ordinary people running the country.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

problem is that when we leave we can't just make deals with Germany or France etc we have to make a deal with the EU as whole

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

The older you get, the more you realise that leaders - even great/successful ones - sooner or later seem to wind up believing their own rhetoric, refusing to accept they're wrong and making big mistakes, which we all suffer for, as a result. Merkel's merely the latest in a long line...

I do think most start out in politics for the right reasons but it's amazing what a dose of power and the various trappings accompanying it eventually do to their morals and judgement.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Merkel has been so obsessed with the Euro project and how the dream is working she has failed to see what has been happening at her home

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I think that she and Hollande will only get the message when there is a massive landslide electoral victory for anti-EU parties but by then it will be too late for them and possibly the end of the EU as we know it.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I'd agree but even then they'll refuse to accept the Single European State vision and their role in it was misguided and naive. These people refuse to accept the inevitable and admit that a change in direction is urgently required and long overdue. An EU could work but only if the mentality of those running it changes. It'll be to everyone's benefit if that happens before the EU descends into extreme right wing hatred and all that follows but that's where I fear they're going to lead us... :erm:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

If the anti-EU parties win through, Hollande & Merkel may not be around to implement the Single European State vision, but I agree that the mentality of those running the EU needs to change rapidly to a more democratic and positive outlook.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

This will be interesting viewing:

Brexit: A Very British Coup?

I don't think Boris will come out of this too well ..

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I never believed in boris and was fairly certain his involvement in the leave campaign was more to do with his ambitions then any genuine belief in leaving the EU and despite what the media may think boris i think put more people off then he attracted to the cause. It always struck me how stupid some of the things he said and did during the campaign and the only thing that made sense was him pulling some stunt. On the morning the result was in you only had to look at his face to see things hadn't gone how he planned and he was now stuck with a situation he had no plans for.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

What amazes me is that with relatively little compromise, the EU could be a wonderful thing yet these people are so wedded to their vision of the EU (i.e. the SES) that it's a case of "it's our way or no way". They'd rather fail and destroy Europe than compromise. How pathetic is that?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

It's way easier to go without something entirely than to lose it. We keep hearing we're a trading, maritime nation, we'll be just a maritime nation.

I have no idea why you're so blase about this unless you genuinely have no idea what it all entails. If we cock it up, and all signs are that we're doing our utmost to, it really won't be fine. The Tories in charge of Brexit have made it abundantly clear that they have no idea what they are doing and would rather play to the audience. Businesses have a duty to their shareholders to start looking at relocating some of their enterprise right now.

We'll go from having free trade in goods and services with the EU-27 and nominally free trade with a collection of others to having free trade with no-one, no protection from the WTO, no structure to trading, and being unable to strike free trade agreements for a period. This may just make businesses somewhat more reluctant to do business here.

Free trade agreements aren't made for fun. The WTO doesn't exist for fun. Clearly countries enter into such things for a reason, and anything that makes life harder will cost money.

These aren't my opinions, they are the opinions of experts from constitutional and trade law, and it's way past project fear time now. I appreciate that no-one cares about experts anymore, just their own ill-informed opinions, but it's always worth reading them so you know what to ignore.

We can blow sunshine up our own arses and pretend that we're this magical, unicorn tipped miracle that doesn't need any of these because we've taken back control or we can get our heads out of said arses and perhaps encourage politicians to take theirs out too and get the best deal for the country rather than whatever they thing will win them the most votes.

I've pretty much given up on any prospect of being in the EEA now with Labour deciding to play UKIP probably putting an end to it, but an abrupt end to our current arrangements with no transition is, according to pretty much everyone bar politicians, a bad idea.

About the only thing we can do to ameliorate this is to render the years of austerity pointless by going on a spending and tax cutting spree and running deficits, which will be awesome. Over half a decade of austerity made pointless by a vote to self-harm.

---------- Post added at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:40 ----------

We can trade with them now. We just can't strike any trade deals until we've sorted our membership of the WTO.

https://www.ft.com/content/5741129a-...f-79eb4891c97d

Such states as Argentina can veto our attempts at joining the WTO. They have absolutely no reason to make this easy for us. We have absolutely no leverage with them.

See previous regarding Germany - need a deal with the entire EU-27.

The politicians claiming this is a copy-paste job, entirely under our control once we leave are, simply, lying.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

change the record dude we're fed up of the remoans :(

---------- Post added at 07:14 ---------- Previous post was at 07:12 ----------

it was interesting -and Boris got a good job out of it ;)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Is that because you can't answer straight forward questions and prefer instead to rely on blind optimism? I keep hearing how we're going to make it work but no one ever says how.

Did he get a good job or a good job title, the Brexit minister has taken all the teeth out of his position imo and again imo bozo's been pushed sideways and sidelined.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I agree with you on this.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Have you ever thought that some on this forum might think the same of you my dear chap as we don't all think the same as you.:)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Wow great way to argue a valid post, enlighten us, are you a part of the negotiation team, if so, help us all:(

Don't worry we will all lose together

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

:)

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/09/9.jpg

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09...ake_of_brexit/

No idea what the end result of that will be but makes sense given VM's equipment is purchased in US Dollars while their customers pay them in Sterling. That must be worth another quid a month in price rises ;)

---------- Post added at 12:00 ---------- Previous post was at 11:40 ----------

I am losing my mind.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3352386.html

George Osborne. George bloody Osborne is sticking up for sensible positions while Labour are jumping on the bandwagon.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

One thing's for sure and that is if we go into these negotiations as if we already feel we've lost the argument, that is what's more likely to happen.

What's required now isn't more delusional clap trap or hyperbole from either side, it's the determination and confidence to make the best of the decision which has been made. Some folks, it seems, will only be happy if we can manage to turn this situation into the disaster they claimed it would be and I feel that's quite perverse.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

We are going in to the negotiation without a damm clue about what we want nevermind feeling we lost the argument we are just lost as to what we want. Everyone has a different view as to what it means to them

I for one pray for it be a success, I never wanted this but neither do I want a disaster, I am just trying to make the best of the situation, both at home and at work I have too much to lose and whilst people think they have regain control, I'm just making sure what I do control today I don't lose

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I can't see I've seen any evidence of this - we have to be careful that if someone says 'this isn't going to be as easy or simple as some think', it isn't interpreted as 'it's all going to fail' or being a 'remoaner'...

Some people are applying extremely simplistic approaches to a very complex subject, and get upset when this is pointed out - there's a huge difference between being realistic and being defeatist, but the two things seem synonymous in some people's eyes...

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Perception of the situation is going to play a huge part as to how well of bad we do out of the brexit.

If opinion says that brexit will be great for us actually, investments will be made and the positive ball will start rolling. A negative opinion and no investments helps the fall the other way.

Who influences those perceptions? It will be the media that propagates the positive or negative vibe and it will spiral from there.

Business and the effects of leaving which are not based on perception, such as importing and exporting and price of the £, we obviously have to take note of and the effects are real. But allowing that to change perception more drastically than it needs to is just going to influence the perception based on how the media reports it too.

So much reliance on a banking system which I feel is fundamentally flawed in the way it works and how it influences everything.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

That's why so much of the reporting and comment in the days after the vote was so ridiculously over the top and irresponsible. The media almost has a vested interest in projecting the worst case scenario and that doesn't just apply to Brexit, we see it all the time when there's a need to fill the airwaves with something. Nobody sensible is arguing that the media should present only the positive but I think there's a need for the mainstream media to behave with some responsibility rather than hyping up everything negative, stirring up panic and thereby weakening our bargaining position.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

What's wrong with EFTA ,we can apply to join with effect the day after we exit and there is absolutely no reason why the current members would object, we can take advantage of the free trade between the members and all the other free trade agreements already in place for non members around the world and lets not forget that the EU has a large number of treaties in place with developing countries that currently apply to us as an EU member ,there is no reason at all that we cannot simply continue those arrangements after exit .All we need is access to the single market we do not under any circumstances want to be a member of the single market,it is too restrictive and harms our trade with other countries outside the EU which is growing at a faster rate .

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

From wiki

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

As a country we can make it as hard or as difficult as we like .All of the countries we have been trading with as a member of the EU will still want our goods and services ,there is absolutely no reason why that would stop .You may think that some people have a simplistic outlook towards Brexit ,maybe that is whats needed instead of people keep saying how complicated or difficult it's going be .

---------- Post added at 21:40 ---------- Previous post was at 21:39 ----------

and your point is ?:confused:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

It's ********. We voted to come out, the terms in which we come out were not on the table. We're out that's it. Let the government that we elected to govern sort it out.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

The EFTA countries bar Switzerland, which has a ton of bilateral agreements that are equivalent and was a founding member of the organisation, are within the EEA. You objected to the EEA here and emphasised said objection here and here.

Your first phrase is to ask what's wrong with EFTA, your last sentence lists basically what you think is wrong with EFTA, given the entire point of it was free trade with the EU's predecessors, which is actually not the case. There is zero evidence I'm aware of that being within the EFTA has harmed the trading relationships its members have.

You didn't mention it but may not like that EFTA membership carries with it membership of the Schengen agreement though, unless the other members are feeling very accommodating of course.

The EFTA nations have 27 free trade agreements as a block and the individual members have bilateral ones too. Iceland, an EEA-EFTA member, was the first state in Europe to sign a free trade agreement with China, and another EFTA member, Switzerland has one. Norway are in the process of negotiating theirs. They are among relatively few states to have them so evidently EEA/EFTA membership and membership of the Single Market hasn't harmed them too much.

It is incredibly unlikely that we would be admitted to EFTA without offering equivalence of Switzerland's bilateral agreements, or requesting full EEA membership. It's incredibly unlikely we'd receive EEA membership without serious concessions. There's really no point in our being there with that in mind; it's EU membership without the political structures and with a couple of conditions on migration and regulations. The EU would be idiotic to let us in there as the first thing we'd do is start misusing those conditions for political reasons. EFTA nations would regard an application from us without a request to join the EEA pointless. A country wanting to join an institution whose entire purpose is being a collection of nations with membership of the Single Market and common trading policy without wanting to be in the Single Market.

I will repeat something from earlier: the EEA is not the Customs Union, and hopefully the below will make it all more clear so there's no further confusion.

http://wikitravel.org/upload/en/thum...ies-en.svg.png

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

You know what i give up ,you asked the question and every time someone tries to answer it you shout them down .Joining EFTA is an option ,it would mean we would not have to be in the single market but would benefit from some of the FTA's already in place ,or we could simply trade under WTO rules or we could negotiate our own FTA with the EU,the latter could be negotiated over the 2 year period and start the day after Brexit.There are options and we will take one and it will be ok simply because we are the 5th largest trading nation in the world,the EU need us to continue pretty as before for their own stability ,we already have all the needed regulations and infrastructure in place .You really need to get over yourself and stop trying to convince everyone that the end of the world is nigh simply because we kicked the failed EU into touch.Most of the world manage without EU membership, so will we .

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

this might come as a shock:shocked: but mrs may did not choose me as a cabinet member ergo i am not privy to the brexit negotiations ,if you want answers ask HM gov i'm sure they wont mind showing all their cards before the game starts .

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Correct. It's perfectly OK to question what'll happen and be concerned that we get it right but we need to have confidence that we can do perfectly well without the constraints, political and otherwise, that EU membership requires. IMHO the biggest failure imaginable would be for us to appear to have lost the confidence to manage our own future and find ourselves cobbling together an unsatisfactory deal which almost gives us the worse possible outcome.

The EU is in a mess with massive, I believe terminal, problems ahead and we need to remind ourselves that no matter what the bluster from Brussels might convey we don't need or wish to be joined at the hip to all of that and their inexorable lemming like drive to oblivion. That's the reality folks, the EU isn't interested in the reforms we would like, their only answer to the problems they've created is to insist that they haven't gone far enough. It's almost like they're trying to recreate the Soviet Union and with the same outcome.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Anyone would think certain sections would like us to fail just to do a 'told you so' and making it a self fulfilling prophecy.

Whilst it's democratically correct to allow dissenters to dissent, it would be wise for all concerned to appreciate that we have legitimately voted and chosen this path and if we all swam in the same direction and actually pulled together, we'd get a positive result rather better than the doom and gloom laden one predicted by many.

Perception is reality in many cases and whilst I'm not suggesting it's going to be smooth and easy - something so many of the 'instant now' lot seem to fail to grasp. If we believe we're going to fail, we WILL fail, we need to be united, is that so hard to do?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I've no time to answer this in full. I'm not shouting you down I'm pointing out that you are wrong and explaining why.

If you insist that you know best and all the lawyers, trade experts, etc, are wrong that's your prerogative, but it is absurd to suggest we could join EFTA without joining the EEA; the main point of EFTA is free trade with the EU without the political integration, and as already noted we won't be members of the WTO initially - it could be delayed for years as we need unanimous agreement from the other members.

Apart from yourself I have seen no-one suggest that we could join EFTA without joining the EEA. I would presume there's a good reason for that unless you're privvy to some finer details of the EFTA - EU relationship.

The EU do not need us to continue as before. We are 5% of their exports, they are ~44% of ours, and most of their exports to us are goods, not services. This is a lose:lose, there is no 'win' for the EU here, and there cannot be any 'win' for us either, else the entire thing comes crashing down.

We're the 5th largest trading nation in the world. They're the world's largest trading bloc. This is why we're gearing up to use people as leverage. Trade wise, we have very little.

---------- Post added at 11:24 ---------- Previous post was at 11:11 ----------

Wanting a particular outcome is perfectly legitimate. Campaigning for that outcome and indicating that others will be bad, based on evidence, is perfectly legitimate.

What you might call a failure I would call a success. I don't want the country to fail which is why I would prefer as close a relationship to the EU as possible, while appreciating that ignoring the result, regardless of the banality of the campaign, isn't feasible.

I believe 'hard Brexit' will be a failure in the short and medium terms at least. I'll continue to make the case for EEA membership regardless of how futile it seems. Doing this is not making the case for going in a different direction, it's choosing a different path going in the same direction.

The majority of people, according to Leave.EU, voted leave primarily because of immigration. One of the biggest cheerleaders for Brexit, Dan Hannan, indicates Brexit doesn't necessarily mean less immigration.

I would suggest that immigration isn't worth harming our economy over, and we'd be far better served dealing with the proven less productive immigration from South Asian states rather than scapegoating largely productive EU migration. With EEA membership we would be provided an emergency break similar to the one David Cameron negotiated which would allow us some time to fix our own infrastructure issues, build some houses, hospitals and schools, and invest in public services. We'd also have the opportunity to petition for the changes to free movement so that it emphasises free movement of labour per the treaties.

Of course I'd prefer remaining where we are, but we are where we are, and I'll continue to make the case for what I consider as the next best thing.

EDIT: It's quite a strange attitude that those who don't want a hard Brexit want the country to fail. If I wanted the country to fail I wouldn't care either way.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

No sadly your reply hasn't come as a shock at all

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

These guys seem to disagree with you.They are constitutional specialists,lawyers,barristers ,judges ,all highly intelligent and experienced people ,just the sort of people who's opinions you have been using to form your opinions so it may be worth your while having a read .

http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/index.html

Have a read it may give you a more up beat outlook

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

They may be lawyers however there are very few of them, their opinions are very much at the extremes, and above all else they are a campaigning group.

Campaigning group for one side thinks all will be easy and wonderful. Their employers don't share their confidence.

http://www.cms-lawnow.com/Brexit

This is about as worthwhile as reading the opinions from lawyers hired by Vote Leave or Stronger In, or taking lessons in climate change from scientists hired by Shell or Greenpeace.

http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/aboutus.shtml

http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/brexit.shtml

Is laughably one-sided and much of it is straight from Vote Leave or Leave.EU. As would be expected from a campaign group, rather than a neutral observer.

Just a couple of comments without claiming legal knowledge:

Completely ignores that we're 5% of the EU's exports and they're over 40% of ours, the same argument made by Vote Leave and Leave.EU, so ridiculous to say it's more in their interests than ours just because in nominal terms our numbers are higher. That's like saying that the UK's deficit is higher than Scotland's as ours is tens of billions while theirs is a little over 10 billion and completely ignoring the percentages. Also ignores that the EU is about a lot more than just trade, which was I believe a big objection.

That they can't spell 'arrangements' speaks volumes for the quality of this content. Nothing says professional like an ugly and amateurish site that didn't have a spell checker run over it or be properly proof-read. It also, of course, completely ignores that we can't just unilaterally join these treaties, it's a negotiation which, in the case of the WTO involves nations that can't stand us.

If the other side of the argument can produce a site that doesn't look 20 years old surely these guys could've done better.

If you want sunshine blown up your backside and propaganda in the guise of 'legal expertise' that's definitely a good place to be, just as if you want to believe we're in no way responsible for climate change or that sugar is healthy you can find 'experts' who'll tell you that too.

I treat both sites with equal scepticism and will take guidance from neither, but thanks for the link.

---------- Post added at 11:54 ---------- Previous post was at 11:30 ----------

If you're interested in some unbiased, or at very least not self-admittedly biased legal campaigning have a look at these:

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016...pensable-role/

https://publiclawforeveryone.com/201...-to-legislate/

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016...tary-scrutiny/

Setting out cases both for and against royal prerogative triggering of Article 50 as just one point of law this all covers, alongside another route with the consensus being that it isn't that simple and lawyers stand to make a lot of money from the whole enterprise.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Of course they could be the wrong type of 'experts'... ;)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I knew as soon as i posted that you would disagree and say that their opinions and facts don't matter simply because they do not agree with your stance.There opinion is just as valid as your experts opinions because that's effectively what they are .What you don't understand is that we are in unchartered territory ,pretty much every single piece of information you post or i post or anyone posts from various experts is conjecture, opinion and pretty much guesswork because what we are doing has never been done before .

---------- Post added at 13:02 ---------- Previous post was at 13:00 ----------

:D:tu:

bloody wrong experts always putting up alternative opinions and facts

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Like these 'experts' :D

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

There's clearly a lot of them about but you just can't trust 'experts' these days, especially those who think Brexit can be made to work perfectly well who are all myopic, biased, Europhobic idiots. :D

I suppose we could still play a game of 'my expert is bigger than your expert'... ;)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Straw man argument, as no one (except Brexiteers who are saying people are saying this) is saying this.

And as we haven't even begun Brexit yet, or the negotiations to begin Brexit, it may be a little early for anyone to be making sweeping statements...;)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I'd say that's a bit of a sweeping statement. ;)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Apologies - some Brexiteers...

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Pretty weak responses to be honest. I have no interest in the responses of those pursuing a pro-EU agenda or those clearly pursuing a pro-Brexit agenda. Those 'experts' very clearly have an agenda so should be greeted with scepticism.

---------- Post added at 22:59 ---------- Previous post was at 22:58 ----------

Indeed we are in uncharted territory, which makes their apparent assurance that their opinion is absolutely authoritative all the more ridiculous. Thanks for making my point for me.

---------- Post added at 23:03 ---------- Previous post was at 22:59 ----------

Allister Heath, determined Brexiter. We have 2 years or more of this process to go. Let's pat ourselves on the back when we have some idea where we are. We've certainly seen third parties downgrade our economy's performance in 2017 by the largest amount in the OECD due to Brexit.

Obviously it's just a forecast. Let's keep our scepticism intact and see where we are in a few months.

---------- Post added at 23:08 ---------- Previous post was at 23:03 ----------

Ya. This is where you've clearly clicked the button and read posts, yet refuse to engage with them.

This doesn't speak well of you, just suggests you can't defend your position.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Nothing is set in stone yet and both sides are preparing their respective negotiating strategies and until formal negotiations start no one really knows how good or bad it will be. As for experts yeah we've got loads of them and they always predict this and that and people draw up battle lines based on it but most of these experts are that good they fail to see massive economic or political problems that happen seemingly more frequent and then they go quiet for a little while.

We had the vote, the outcome was for brexit and now it's up to the government to implement it and I've got no problem with people on the remain side wanting to keep the issue going I'd just like less of the doom and gloom and the talking down of the UK. Both sides have their share of smug gits and know it alls and they will keep going as long as they can best not to give them too much attention.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Too many people are like stoke brokers who make money regardless of the outcome. Lawyers are getting paid by both sides and have self interest to making things as complex and drawn out as they possibly can. And so whatever the outcome of the vote was they would win. Politicians more concerned with themselves than those they represent.

Common sense would say we exit the political union and become part of a free trade body. Sure there are a few niceties to sort out. But the lawyers have ensured that nothing can be that simple and there are loads of steps to take and limits and so forth. And who wins?

The reasons things get so complex is that the whole is trying to join together such varying entities that there are layers upon layers of rules and regulations to protect interests and sensibilities across a wide area with various exceptions and exceptions to the exceptions ad infinitum. And again who wins?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

That's the definition of a truism. :tu:

Sooner or later one final piece of ill-conceived legislation will be put in place which causes the entire country to grind to a halt, locked in a circular problem to which there is no longer an answer/escape. The legal profession's equivalent of the Holy Grail... :D

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Can you imagine what it'd be like without any lawyers though

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

If you believe Liam Fox and his nonsense he saw fit to spout to the WTO it'll all be fine.

Nonsense. Schedules set out tariff and subsidy arrangements. We have no schedule of our own as we're inside the EU's customs union. We would have to propose a provisional schedule of tariffs and subsidies and any WTO member could object.

Fox and the rest of the Brexit trio are fixated and obsessed with the idea of hard Brexit, and to hell with the downsides and details.

Clearly they've been drinking in the Lawyers for Britain experts' unbiased advice.

Perhaps not quite completely believing it as he also said:

Stealing another's words:

Although the comment about the lack of a legal vacuum makes you wonder.

This is ridiculous. We need solid negotiations, with an ambitious plan tempered by pragmatism. All these guys have offered so far is the exact same thing they offered during the referendum campaign: dogmatism.

In between that you have Boris Johnson, having suddenly changed his mind about hordes of Turks invading the UK having joined the EU regardless of our objections (we had a hard veto that had absolutely no mechanism to be worked around) insisting that the UK would support Turkey's accession to the EU. This after the ongoing, brutal crackdown on freedom of the press, any objection to Erdogan's rule and basic civil liberties.

For those few people who hadn't yet grasped that Boris is a weak, vapid hypocrite with little moral code or principle obsessed with his own career and nothing else this should make it abundantly clear.

This is not good for Britain, regardless of whether you are a 'Brexiteer' or a 'Remoaner'. How did we end up with politics going so low that the most important constitutional change in recent history is in the hands of these three, while the opposition are torn between trying to emulate UKIP and trying to emulate the Socialist Workers' Party?

This has been a general rant against the abysmal quality of the politicians we have representing us and the lies they were happy to tell to try and convince us to vote as they wanted us to for their own self-interest. They'll still have their subsidised Westminster bar and expenses, as always if things go boobies up it'll be the poor who suffer first.

---------- Post added at 14:08 ---------- Previous post was at 13:40 ----------

Unsure if people can read it as it's behind a paywall but this is interesting.

https://www.ft.com/content/5763950a-...#axzz4LTssqwly

Acknowledgement that the EU can and should be improved, along with a plan to do it.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I'd take issue with the idea that "no change" means the promise we will "take back control" will inevitably be broken.

Brexit is an event leading to a continuing state as a nation outside the EU. There is an unlimited amount of time during which things can change and control reasserted. Insisting that a promise has been broken just because there aren't radical changes on day one is absurd, not to mention a gross distortion of what any leading leave campaigner actually said in the run up to the vote.

We don't need to rush to do anything. We're not going to. On the event of Brexit we will re-assert sovereignty over our affairs, and changes can follow after that at whatever rate circumstances require.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Yup. :tu:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37504966

Liam Fox, he's such a cloth head, why would anyone let him anywhere near Govt.? Apart from the inept damage he causes, he'll knife his boss in the back at the first opportunity. Most incompetent self seeking minister ever. If he's allowed anywhere near Brexit negotiations this country will be damaged forever.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

With the prospect of a 'hard' Brexit the car companies are looking a little less relaxed.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-aut...KCN11Z1YQ?il=0

We can't simply pay them with any reciprocal tariffs, that's disallowed under WTO rules.

Nissan, especially, are probably feeling pretty butthurt. They were invited and persuaded here by Thatcher in the 80s.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/09/3.jpg

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/09/4.jpg

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/09/5.jpg

Be good to see them, and the rest of us, getting some clarity on what HMG have in mind.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

They've already told you. Brexit means Brexit.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

yea but yea but yea but .....:soapbox:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/09/1.gif

;)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Theresa May takes axe to EU laws
:)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

It seems all EU Law will become UK Law and then any parts they want to get rid of entirely will be done on a case-by-case basis. I am not sure of the actual legal work/consequences in that, I actually thought the way it worked was EU law does become UK Law anyway but I guess not. Lawyers will probably have some fun though.

---------- Post added at 23:12 ---------- Previous post was at 23:08 ----------

I do worry about the emerging political consensus for a hard-Brexit though. We really shouldn't rush it and leave without any idea of what the deal is going to be. Some in the Tory Party put together a recommendation that we simply offer trade on the same terms we have now with the EU, sans-free movement, and say take it or leave it.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Do you also not worry about the calibre of people in charge on deciding what will turn out to be a critical point in our country's history?

The country voted for Brexit and the "C" team is in charge of the process ..

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I think EU law is given effect in the UK via statutory instruments and the like. These can be given effect with relatively little effort by parliament. The 1972 Act would be the enabling Act giving authority for that to happen. If the 1972 Act is repealed, a whole lot of what is already effectively UK law, by virtue of being EU law that has been given effect here, would suddenly have no substance.

This Great Repeal Act would have to state that everything introduced due to EU law up to a certain date is to continue, so that it all continues to have the necessary legal basis in the absence of the European Communities Act. The repeal act would replace the EC act as the "enabling" act to allow them to continue.

At least I think that's how it works. :D

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Basically i think it means that the ECJ will no longer be the final court ,full supremacy will be returned to parliament.It won't take effect untill we leave anyway so it doesn't mean a 'hard Brexit' and it just removes the need to introduce a raft of new legislation to replace EU legislation in a short space of time .It's not actualy that big an announcement we had to repeal it at some time anyway

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Fair enough. Seems like the logical way to do it.

In other news Article 50 to be invoked by March of next year. Curbing free movement to take priority over single market access.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

From what I can gather the Prime Minister has eliminated Single Market membership as an option, to rapturous applause from the conference.

The Chancellor has also indicated there is no stimulus planned to offset any negative impacts. Deficit reduction remains the priority.

Journalists there inform the hall really, really want out. Like yesterday.

Keep an eye on Sterling.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I'm pleased she has finally put to bed any notion of EEA , 'Swedish' or Norwegian models for the future .We will simply negotiate an agreement with the EU ,simple and straight forward .

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

It'll be a lose:lose now May has blown what leverage we did have, timing of A50 and flexibility on what we are seeking, but as long as you're happy.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Not necessarily, she has 3 million EU "migrants" she can barter with

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

How has she blown anything ,and how will it be a lose lose

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Proper clean exit. No fudges. It's what we voted for.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Exactly ,i listened to her on the BBC this morning and she made a lot of sense and actually gave answers to questions asked.For the first time in a long time i actually sat and listened to what a politician had to say

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Agreed 100% ^^

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Yep. :tu:

The way some folks are talking, anyone would think there's no uncertainty about staying attached to the EU. My God just look at what's going on over there! Forget the UK, what's the EU going to look like in 2 years time?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

It's the best decision.

The EU leaders keep on threatening us with the single market, best we tell them to shove it.

Then they lose all their leverage.

Now we can negotiate on level terms.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Losing the single market does mean that we lose the ability to trade freely with Europe as a single bloc. Europe won't offer as the same deal, we'll lose something in exchange for the deal we do get.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Leaving the single market protectionism will benefit us more though imo.We have never really benefited as much as other European countries from the single market

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I've been making a mint out of additional guests from the US and Canada over the past couple of months. This is likely to be my best year in business so far. :cool:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

... and unlike a certain G. Brown Esq. I'm sure you'll be fixing the roof while the sun's shining. ;)

Have you any thoughts yet on how Brexit might affect your business in terms of any EU inspired legislation you're bound by?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Cool. We as a nation just need to not import anything, ever, and we'll be all good.

---------- Post added at 13:58 ---------- Previous post was at 13:55 ----------

Our national debt was pretty low when Brown was Chancellor, fixing the roof was rather unnecessary when there was nothing to fix. His crime was PFI if anything, not what he invested funding schools and hospitals after years of underinvestment. Economy is now apparently growing and healthy while debt to GDP ratio continues to rise.

Appreciate you've no idea what you're talking about and will take any chance to have a pop at Labour though. Fully imagine we'll be in the 2020s and you'll be saying Brexit is awesome and any deficit is Labour's fault regardless of the situation. Can always find a scapegoat somewhere.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Except we don't need to strive for that - we just need to strive for a reasonable balance, and it seems to me that there is likely to be nothing wrong, in the long term, with an exchange rate that makes domestic manufacturing more cost effective.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Minor issue that we import most raw materials and the energy to process them as we have an inadequate supply at home. These tend to be hedged in advance, but the hedging eventually runs out.

Be interesting to see how we strive for that balance and cost effectiveness alongside Liam Fox's assertion that we'll be a bastion of free trade.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Interesting that the new chancellor stance so far is different from Osborne's inflexible economic policies.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Hasn't got much choice. Depending on how the inflexible Brexit stance goes down we'll need a combination of fiscal and monetary flexibility to compensate.

He has some respect from me as one of the few that's approaching the future with any kind of pragmatism, in that he's openly admitting we won't overnight become super wealthy and a shining example to the rest of the world of how to do everything ever.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37536943

For all their rhetoric about how wonderfully the economy is doing real wages aren't reflecting this, and I look forward to their next list of scapegoats when we've taken back control of immigration.