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-   -   Eurozone will collapse... (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33678876)

heero_yuy 16-06-2015 10:02
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yawn! How often do they think they can kick the can down the road? :rolleyes:

Osem 16-06-2015 13:01
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Crossing threads here but I wonder how the Greeks would fare re. immigration if they quit the EU. I suppose they could decline to take any and pass the problems to someone else but I imagine the boat loads would still arrive on their shores.

Kursk 17-06-2015 16:35
Greek Tragedy
 
Why are we standing by whilst Greece is humiliated? Why don't all EU Countries re-direct their foreign aid handouts to Greece? Yes, Greece needs to help itself but it needs a helping hand. Another one.

And now an entreaty a la Aragorn at the Black Gates in LOTR:

I urge you, men of The West, stand with Greece as she stands with us; she has gifted us democracy, culture and nice holidays with ouzo and the zorba's dance. We should offer a beacon of hope to our friends, to our own kind and in the name of all that is good.

Or continue sending money to Africa and Asia to line the pockets of despots.

nashville 17-06-2015 16:46
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Not too sure about some politics but I think we are better off outside the euro.

Ignitionnet 17-06-2015 16:57
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35783224)
It's just winding me up now. The Eurozone seem to be demand unrealistically punitive conditions on a deal. A 1% surplus? It's clearly ridiculous. Cut them more slack with their repayments and the debt but insist that they institute real reforms. It's clear Greece won't be able to pay them back any time soon so it's better to try and force them into actions that will stabilise the country until such time repayment looks more promising.
Couldn't really make it up, could you? As part of the conditions to keep the Greek economy going they want a string of privatisations and measures that will cripple its already non-existent ability to sustain its debt burden.

It looks less like an attempt to actually resolve the issue and more like an attempt to asset strip a country. I appreciate that Germany has been prospering at the expense of Greece, et al, for a while but this is just a little too obvious.

The bailouts, and the new cash, are nothing to do with the welfare of Greece. They are purely about shifting bad debt from the balance sheets of private banks to those of EU and Eurozone taxpayers.

The EU's horrific corporatism shines through here. Brown reduced our ability to oppose this corporatism via the Lisbon Treaty, the Lib Dems naively think a 9% voting share can oppose it, Labour want in at any cost, and the party line from the Conservatives is to treat the EU membership referendum as a purely political exercise to score points.

Not that surprising given they seem to treat most things as political, rather than practical, exercises, and are cut from the same corporatist cloth as the EU with only the methods of forwarding corporatism being different.

---------- Post added at 15:54 ---------- Previous post was at 15:49 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by nashville (Post 35783543)
Not too sure about some politics but I think we are better off outside the euro.
Without question. Our economy would've been an even bigger mess had we been in the Euro.

The Euro is a currency largely by Germany, for Germany, and sod the rest of the Eurozone.

---------- Post added at 15:57 ---------- Previous post was at 15:54 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35783539)
Why are we standing by whilst Greece is humiliated? Why don't all EU Countries re-direct their foreign aid handouts to Greece? Yes, Greece needs to help itself but it needs a helping hand. Another one.
Well, it needs a helping hand rather than being loaded with debt to pay off Eurozone banks who lent it money in the past so that they don't have to suffer the consequences of the bad loans they made.

The Greek bailouts have been nothing of the sort. They have been Greek creditor bailouts. A small fraction of the money has actually gone to Greece.

Moral hazard for the banks completely gone. They can lend however they like knowing the taxpayer will pick up the tab, so they can continue to act like asshats, pay themselves huge bonuses based on the dodgy loans, and pass the bill when it goes bad to taxpayers. A great deal indeed.

Kursk 17-06-2015 17:14
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35783545)
Well, it needs a helping hand rather than being loaded with debt to pay off Eurozone banks who lent it money in the past so that they don't have to suffer the consequences of the bad loans they made.

The Greek bailouts have been nothing of the sort. They have been Greek creditor bailouts. A small fraction of the money has actually gone to Greece.

Moral hazard for the banks completely gone. They can lend however they like knowing the taxpayer will pick up the tab, so they can continue to act like asshats, pay themselves huge bonuses based on the dodgy loans, and pass the bill when it goes bad to taxpayers. A great deal indeed.
Economics are beyond me. I was thinking more of a gift with no strings attached. We are not in the eurozone but we could lead and influence others by re-routing our current foreign aid to Greece. There has to be something different to break this deadlock without breaking Greece imo.

Chris 17-06-2015 18:10
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Greece needs it debts written off. That would be a gift of sorts. It won't happen though, so Greece will eventually have no choice but to simply write them off itself, by defaulting and then ditching the Euro and reinventing the Drachma.

nomadking 17-06-2015 20:00
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Apparently a chunk of the debt(£8bn?) is held by Greek pension funds. Greek pensions would continue to go down the drain.

Their problems are not all down the the Euro or even the EU. How is a pension system that allows many to retire at 55 or allows non-married women to inherit the pensions of their parents:shocked: ever going to work?

Any fudging of the books before the entered the Euro is proof that that the Greek Economy was rubbish to begin with. Their problems are systemic and will continue while they ignore them. Nobody is going to want to invest there. That is not going to make it any easier.

Damien 17-06-2015 22:42
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35783563)
Greece needs it debts written off. That would be a gift of sorts. It won't happen though, so Greece will eventually have no choice but to simply write them off itself, by defaulting and then ditching the Euro and reinventing the Drachma.
How is that going to help though if they have no willingness to reform their economy and society? They can default on their debt and adopt their own currency again but who is going to lend to a nation where the money goes down a black hole and who has recently defaulted on their debt?

Chris 18-06-2015 09:27
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35783610)
How is that going to help though if they have no willingness to reform their economy and society? They can default on their debt and adopt their own currency again but who is going to lend to a nation where the money goes down a black hole and who has recently defaulted on their debt?
Oddly enough, Dan Hannan made a similar point in the Tele yesterday. Never thought thee and he would agree on much. :D

You are right; default, devaluation and money-printing is not a solution and in the long term it is damaging. The judgment call is whether it is more or less damaging than the alternatives. What it can do is buy time for reforms to be implemented. Unfortunately, as Hannan pointed out, the reforms necessary are the ones Greece has been undertaking as the conditions of its existing bail out, and which Syriza was elected specifically to undo.

As things are, with Greeks unwilling to reform their economy, default would not help. However, keeping them hooked on debt from the IMF or the other EZ states isn't helping either and the country is sinking further into the mire despite now running a modest primary surplus.

The only way they are going to get debt relief is to default. Then, it is to be hoped, they will realise that the means to balance the books are within their own grasp. They may be more willing to act sensibly at that point, or at the very least, the complications brought about by default and ejection from the Euro might keep them too busy to do anything very stupid.

On a related note, I see that clown Martin Schulz has popped up to say that if Greece leaves the Euro, it will also be kicked out of the EU. I suspect that somewhat batty assertion tells us more than Schulz intended about how likely an imminent Grexit now is.

With any luck, this whole debacle is going to necessitate a treaty adjustment which Cameron can hang his own renegotiation plans on.

Osem 18-06-2015 09:37
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
What do those who were complicit in Greece to joining the club have to say about it now or have they just quietly sidled off to enjoy their generous Euro pay and perks? We're having all sorts of investigations into and punishments handed out to the banks but what about the highly dubious creative accounting and political string pulling which allowed this train wreck to happen? :mad:

I can see Putin rubbing his hands with glee not only because he might see an opportunity in Greece's exit but also because it could well lead to others leaving the club and possibly put an end to further ill judged expansion.

Osem 18-06-2015 18:34
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
International Money Fund (IMF) boss Christine Lagarde has warned there is "no period of grace" for Greece over a debt repayment deadline.

She said Greece would be in default on its loans from the IMF if it failed to make a €1.6bn (£1.1bn; $1.8bn) payment on 30 June.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33177021

Merkel on the other hand believes:

Quote:
that a Greek debt deal was possible.
Are they playing good cop, bad cop?

Chris 18-06-2015 18:46
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes, and Martin "Greeks get on my nerves" Schulz is messing with the format by playing Mental Cop.

Osem 18-06-2015 18:53
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well I'm sure all the festering animosity will be forgotten by the Greeks in another 10,000 years or so...

Ignitionnet 18-06-2015 20:55
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35783775)
Yes, and Martin "Greeks get on my nerves" Schulz is messing with the format by playing Mental Cop.
Oh he and our resident adorer of the British Guy Verhofstadt have been putting their, completely impotent, oar in.

Both can actually sod off, this is not within their competence, not that Verhofstadt has one, or indeed any.

Osem 19-06-2015 09:03
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
An emergency summit of leaders from eurozone nations will be held on Monday, after the latest attempt to resolve the Greek debt crisis failed...

... Head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said that "too little" progress had been made and that "no agreement as yet is in sight".

Greece has less than two weeks to strike a deal with its creditors or face defaulting on an existing loan...

... Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Friday that there would be a solution to Greece's debt crisis.

"The [eurozone] leaders summit on Monday is a positive development on the road toward a deal," Mr Tsipras said in a statement.

"All those who are betting on crisis and terror scenarios will be proven wrong."

He added: "There will be a solution based on respecting EU rules and democracy which would allow Greece to return to growth in the euro."

Mr Tsipras is due to meet Russia's President Vladimir Putin at an economic forum in St Petersburg later.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33194917

I'm sure that's not a co-incidence.

Gavin78 19-06-2015 16:09
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
wouldn't surpise me if Russia bails Greece out then Greece defaults on paying Russia back and then Russia invades Greece for that reason.

Or

Russia bails Greece out in some kind of shady deal where by Russia tries to start up it's own EU

Or Russia bails Greece out but then has Greece as an ally in some kind of back door hand shake. wouldn't surprise me if Russia with all it's billions tries to buy the country

Osem 19-06-2015 16:16
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I'm sure all sorts of games are being played right now. Given how they've suffered and the mess they're in I don't suppose the Greeks will rule anything out.

Hugh 19-06-2015 17:32
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
You may find this Chatham House report on the Russian economy of interest...

http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/c...GNsaAt6V8P8HAQ#

Quote:
Fragile economy

Scratch the surface, however, and it is clear that on other economic indicators the picture is less benign. Prices continue to rise, with annualized inflation reaching nearly 17 per cent in March. Industrial production, although boosted by the weak rouble, remains anaemic. Investment, which as a proportion of GDP is already comparatively low, is falling rapidly, with a year-on-year decline of 5.3 per cent registered in March. Taken together, these indicators of activity in the real economy suggest that GDP, which unexpectedly grew at the end of 2014, may have fallen by around 2 per cent in the first quarter alone. These data hardly augur well for a sustained and broad-based return to growth.

The rally, to the extent that there is one, is focused largely on the rouble. But the wider economy is performing badly. More worryingly, even this narrowly focused strong performance is precarious. Should oil prices begin to decline again, perhaps as Iranian oil increases global supply, or if fighting in Ukraine intensifies, confidence could evaporate just as quickly as it returned in recent months.

The gyrations of Russia’s short-term economic performance also divert attention from the fact that Russia is afflicted by a severe and prolonged slowdown in the rate of growth. The system of political economy that has existed for the past decade and a half is no longer delivering an acceptable rate of economic growth. Most senior policy-makers acknowledge this. But thus far, the Kremlin has showed no appetite for undertaking the type of reform needed to fix the severe problems that are holding the Russian economy back.

Unfortunately, the policy response to the economic downturn and Western economic sanctions threatens to increase state control and make the economy more introverted. Rather than strengthening property rights, boosting competition and creating the conditions for accelerated private investment, the leadership is instead considering a wide-ranging import substitution plan to insulate Russia from the global economy. It is also allocating scarce public funds to help inefficient but politically well-connected enterprises. While these policies satisfy powerful constituencies close to the Kremlin, they do nothing to address the acute structural challenges facing the Russian economy.

Osem 19-06-2015 17:52
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
No doubt those severe structural challenges account, in part at least, for why Putin has been quite happy to stir up trouble and nationalist sentiment. He needs an excuse - someone else to blame.

Osem 19-06-2015 23:27
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Fears are growing over the health of Greek banks after indications that savers have withdrawn billions of euros in the past week.

Capital flight from beleaguered Greek banks this week alone could be more than €4bn (£2.9bn), reports say.

Savers are moving funds as time runs out to resolve Greece's debt crisis.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has approved more emergency help for the banks and will review funding again on Monday, officials told news agencies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33195732

TheDaddy 20-06-2015 02:47
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
More help for banks, just what's needed.

Osem 20-06-2015 11:34
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Just been listening to Mellor and Livingstone on LBC, highlighting the irony that, whilst the Germans were effectively spared countless billions in reparations after WWII, they're now in the driving seat in imposing stringent repayment conditions on Greece.

Hugh 20-06-2015 22:28
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Did they also highlight the irony that most of the reason Greece is in deep doo-doo is that hardly anyone (businesses or individuals) pay tax, but expect huge Government payouts in the form of State Subsidies and extremely generous and early pensions?

Pierre 20-06-2015 22:53
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35784166)
Did they also highlight the irony that most of the reason Greece is in deep doo-doo is that hardly anyone (businesses or individuals) pay tax, but expect huge Government payouts in the form of State Subsidies and extremely generous and early pensions?
It's well known that across all of Greece, and there are many many islands of course. That tax collection, and administration thereof, is very poor.

Osem 20-06-2015 22:56
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35784166)
Did they also highlight the irony that most of the reason Greece is in deep doo-doo is that hardly anyone (businesses or individuals) pay tax, but expect huge Government payouts in the form of State Subsidies and extremely generous and early pensions?
I think that's taken for granted to be honest and given that fact, perhaps it'd have been better all round of they hadn't been allowed into the club and allowed to borrow even more money even more cheaply in the first place. That's the EU for you though...

Osem 21-06-2015 15:09
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
The head of Greece's biggest bank has said it would be "insane" not to reach an agreement at emergency talks on Monday on the country's debt crisis.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will meet the leaders of the 18 other eurozone nations at a Brussels summit.

Louka Katseli, chair of the National Bank of Greece, told the BBC that banks were not under immediate threat of running out of money.

But she said the situation was serious, and without a deal would become severe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33215482

I think she's missing one key factor - they are mad!

nomadking 21-06-2015 15:52
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35784244)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33215482

I think she's missing one key factor - they are mad!
Are they that mad? They keep getting billions thrown at them.

heero_yuy 21-06-2015 15:58
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35784250)
Are they that mad? They keep getting billions thrown at them.
The mad ones are those giving the billions to a clearly bankrupt state in order to maintain the vanity project.

Osem 21-06-2015 15:59
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
@ Nomadking - I was referring to the Eurocrats being mad.

Ignitionnet 21-06-2015 17:49
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35784166)
extremely generous and early pensions?
http://news.sky.com/story/1504923/gr...a-too-generous

Quote:
According to Eurostat's most recent 2012 data, pensions spending as a percentage of its output or GDP is 30% more generous in Greece than it is in the UK. Greece spends 14.3% of its GDP on old age pensions whilst the UK spends 11.0%

However, because Greek GDP came under sustained pressure during the recession, falling by a whopping 8.9% in 2011 alone, this has the effect of increasing the apparent generosity of Greek pensions.
Give our GDP the kind of drop the Greek economy has had and our pension spend as a proportion of the economy would be similarly large, not to mention:

Quote:
How does this compare to our pensions?

UK pensions are not only far more generous than in Greece in absolute terms but they also benefit from the Chancellor's 'triple lock' protection.

This means that in any given year the amount that a pensioner receives will rise by whichever is highest out of inflation, the increase in average earnings or 2.5%.

The security of such a guarantee is no such luxury in Greece. Earlier this week I spoke to a Greek pensioner who had seen her pension shrink by nearly 25% since January 2012.


---------- Post added at 16:49 ---------- Previous post was at 16:43 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35784172)
It's well known that across all of Greece, and there are many many islands of course. That tax collection, and administration thereof, is very poor.
As I understand it reform of this is a big part of Syriza's offer, however the troika would prefer them to tax essentials like electricity and food more heavily, alongside cutting pensions that have already dropped by a quarter.

I can't blame Syriza for telling the troika where to go. Their demands will further harm the Greeks' ability to generate wealth. Greek debt isn't sustainable, the troika screwed up by bailing out banks and putting taxpayers' money on the line, now they should have to explain their actions in the case of the Eurozone nations to the electorate.

Greece hasn't been bailed out of anything. Deutsche Bank and others have in an attempt to preserve Germany's mercantilism in the Eurozone.

nomadking 21-06-2015 18:35
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35784253)
@ Nomadking - I was referring to the Eurocrats being mad.
Billions are being thrown at the Eurocrats so they can in turn throw it at the Greeks.

Ignitionnet 21-06-2015 20:37
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35784277)
Billions are being thrown at the Eurocrats so they can in turn throw it at the Greeks.
-Greeks +Eurozone banks.

Hugh 21-06-2015 21:34
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Who loaned it to the Greek banks....

Ignitionnet 21-06-2015 21:36
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35784314)
Who loaned it to the Greek banks....
And who should bare the losses rather than palming them off on taxpayers via this bailout.

This bailout was a breach of the IMF's own rules and nothing more than an attempt to keep the political project that is the Euro running. The Greeks are not a consideration here.

Hugh 21-06-2015 21:36
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Agreed...

But the problem is that the Greek Government passed laws making the Greek banks loan the Government money at low interest rates...

Osem 21-06-2015 21:37
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35784277)
Billions are being thrown at the Eurocrats so they can in turn throw it at the Greeks.
They will pursue they're ever closer union, ever larger EU until it blows up in their faces and then still refuse to accept they were wrong and their single state concept flawed from the outset.

nomadking 21-06-2015 22:20
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35784314)
Who loaned it to the Greek banks....
In part, the Greek Pension system.
Quote:
In 2012, pension funds, which were obliged under a law introduced in 1950 by the then king of Greece, Paul I, to keep a minimum of 77% of their assets in government bonds, took an €8.3bn hit following the restructuring of sovereign debt.

Chris 24-06-2015 17:58
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So, the IMF has rejected Greece's reform proposals, and the Greeks have rejected the IMF's counter-proposals. And the clock ticks a second closer to midnight.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33258624

heero_yuy 24-06-2015 18:27
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So the can gets kicked a little way further down the road. I suspect the Greeks are banking on the Eurozone countries doing anything to preserve the vanity project and giving them the cash anyway.

Will the Germans stump up the readies?

Osem 24-06-2015 20:57
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
And if they do, what will be the 'euro' pro quo?...

nashville 24-06-2015 23:49
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
They will never get out of debt, What a situation to bei in

Kursk 25-06-2015 12:28
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well, fair play for the bare-faced cheek. The Greeks are like "we have no money, you'll have to give us some. And some more. We have no way to pay it back ever but the World owes us a living and we intend to go on living with all the luxuries of much wealthier people. Suck it up".

I can't help thinking that it reminds me of something closer to home...

Ignitionnet 25-06-2015 12:47
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35784317)
Agreed...

But the problem is that the Greek Government passed laws making the Greek banks loan the Government money at low interest rates...
Indeed, a long time ago, and thus all is entwined.

We actually have similar requirements that some investment vehicles must invest in UK gilts to an extent I believe.

Regardless, it's probably time that Greece is cut loose. There is no happy ending here, the multiplier from the previous austerity has been terrifying, and their debt to GDP ratio just keeps going up. A primary fiscal surplus is worthless if that ratio keeps rising.

They're suffering bitterly too from deflationary pressures. Greece really could benefit from a big blast of inflation.

Hugh 25-06-2015 13:31
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This ^

Ignitionnet 25-06-2015 22:56
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2015/06/4.png

Can't say Greece looks like a country that needs austerity to me. More one in the midst of a depression.

Ignitionnet 27-06-2015 17:41
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So for those who didn't know Syriza have somewhat abrogated responsibility, and have called for that thing that is utterly anathema to the EU - a referendum.

Quote:
Greece's prime minister has called a referendum on 5 July for voters to decide whether to accept a bailout deal offered by international creditors.

Alexis Tsipras made clear he was against the "unbearable" bailout plan.

Parliament is debating whether to ratify the vote, and some queues have been seen outside banks in Athens.
Well played Syriza, and I can only wholeheartedly approve of taking this to the people, however I'm not so keen on that Syriza are abrogating responsibility somewhat for their manifesto.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33296839

Predictable panic at this display of direct democracy in defiance of the Troika. Ball just got thrown well and truly into their court and the referendum can't happen until after Greece have defaulted to the IMF.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33299347

---------- Post added at 16:41 ---------- Previous post was at 15:41 ----------

Greece are defaulting to the IMF on Tuesday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33300543

heero_yuy 27-06-2015 18:01
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Looks like they've gone for the nuclear option. Now we see how much the rest of the Eurozone want to pay to keep them in.

Ignitionnet 27-06-2015 18:45
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35785484)
Looks like they've gone for the nuclear option. Now we see how much the rest of the Eurozone want to pay to keep them in.
Germany can't really keep them in for political reasons. The people have been sold the image of feckless Greeks refusing to take their medicine and being obstinate.

Germans would likely not react well to being told that Greece and the other southern deficit states went into debt buying German exports kept artificially cheap by currency union, and were loaned part of the cash by Germany.

Along with that that the Greek economy was rendered uncompetitive by Germany's internal devaluation and has been laid to waste by a combination of austerity and German mercantilism.

Germany wanted the best of everything, all the advantages of the Euro without having to foot the inevitable bill for their 'beggar thy neighbour' actions. They now demand Greece play by the rules having been happy to tear them up themselves both by their actions in the earlier years of the Euro and with the bailouts which only bear some semblance of legality through chicanery.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-790333.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-790333-2.html

Quote:
Greece's new conservative government, elected in 2004, disclosed that its socialist predecessors had been reporting manipulated figures to Eurostat since 2000, including the numbers used to join the euro zone.

But instead of criticizing Greece, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, a Portuguese citizen, praised the new government for its openness and congratulated it for taking such "courageous steps" to make up for the mistakes of the past. Now it was Greece's job to put its house in order by 2006, Barroso added.

Kursk 27-06-2015 18:55
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
A tactical referendum: sneaky. Time to find out if the EU has any balls. It cannot wait for the referendum result.

Ignitionnet 27-06-2015 20:33
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Former MD of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn offers his thoughts - largely negative about the current IMF policies:

http://fr.slideshare.net/DominiqueSt...7-tweet-greece

This, if true, is absolute dynamite:

Quote:
More is coming in about the telephone conversation the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras had this afternoon with the German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande.

Helena Smith our correspondent writes:

Courtesy of Mega News we are now learning that Tsipras’ chat with both leaders was far from cordial. The Greek prime minister, responding to Merkel’s protestations that the referendum would ultimately boil down to a choice “between the euro and drachma” is reported to have said:

“No it isn’t.

This is the birthplace of democracy. We are a sovereign country and will not be told what question to pose in this referendum. The referendum wiill take place regardless of whatever the decision the Eurogroup takes.”
EDIT: Fundamentally Merkel is stuffed here. The arrogance of the EU and the Euro-project alongside the obsession with ever-closer union is put into stark focus when it's pointed out, as noted by the Greek Finance Minister, that the 'procedure' for a country to leave the Euro simply doesn't exist.

Damien 27-06-2015 22:45
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35785464)
So for those who didn't know Syriza have somewhat abrogated responsibility, and have called for that thing that is utterly anathema to the EU - a referendum.
The referendum is just them, as you say, refusing to take responsibility. They said things would change and they would get a better deal, they went to the EU who effectively said 'No'. They don't want to either sign up to a lesser deal than promised or take reasonability for the consequences of default.

The EU may be screwing over Greece but no one is being honest with them that default and losing the Euro isn't going to be easy either. No one has told them them that whichever path they take they cannot afford the society they want or at least not with a lot of tax reform. The days of low taxation and massive pensions are over.

Ignitionnet 27-06-2015 23:00
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
On the flip side try telling the Greeks that more of the same will somehow work in the context of this, Damien.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2015/06/5.png

Germany want to ram austerity down Greece's throat as they, voluntarily, did it to themselves and it kinda worked. Of course it worked because the Euro kept their exports relatively cheap and provided a ready made market in the rest of the Eurozone but let's not go into minor issues.

nomadking 27-06-2015 23:41
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35785521)
On the flip side try telling the Greeks that more of the same will somehow work in the context of this, Damien.



Germany want to ram austerity down Greece's throat as they, voluntarily, did it to themselves and it kinda worked. Of course it worked because the Euro kept their exports relatively cheap and provided a ready made market in the rest of the Eurozone but let's not go into minor issues.
Greeks overspent on employing people in non-jobs, on increasing salaries, on increasing pensions and entitlements. They didn't collect taxes, they made business difficult and expensive. How on earth was anything going to go right? That is ongoing spending. That is what has to be cut back. It would be easy if they had spent it on the household equivalent of several flash holidays a year. In that situation you can cut back on the holidays without having to cut back on other household spending. Is anybody going to invest there, whilst there is a government that might well take the business away from you?

Ignitionnet 28-06-2015 00:22
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This says what I would say better than I could.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2015/06/4.png

Greece have made pretty much unprecendented cutbacks. The Troika demand more of the same even though, per my earlier image, it isn't working, and the former MD of the IMF admits it isn't working.

Greece are not blameless, but are being hung out to dry to support the 'EU' project.

nomadking 28-06-2015 00:47
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Any supposed improvements will be because of austerity imposed upon them. Without that constraint they will let loose again with the excessive spending.

If the GDP has plummeted, how can any alleged "cyclically adjusted surplus" exist?

Quote:
Then there are the cuts that have been reversed, such as the reopening after two years of the state broadcasting company ERT, which started programmes again this year.
The problem therefore is not so much that Greece is incapable of reform or does not know what needs doing, but that it has wasted five years of the bailout without making serious attempts to fix the structural problems that beset the economy - and in many cases it is actually going backwards.
If it had started five years ago, it might have been seeing the results by now as countries like Ireland and Spain have done, but one of the reasons that the Greek bailout has reached another crisis point is that it has hardly started.

Ignitionnet 28-06-2015 00:58
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I recommend a course in economics. It will fill you in on why, if GDP has plummeted, a cyclically adjusted surplus can exist.

That you ask the question indicates you don't know what a cyclically adjusted surplus is.

Carlos Carboni 28-06-2015 08:53
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35785531)
I recommend a course in economics. It will fill you in on why, if GDP has plummeted, a cyclically adjusted surplus can exist.

That you ask the question indicates you don't know what a cyclically adjusted surplus is.
I didn't know either, so I looked it up:

The excess of a government's total income over expenditure assuming normal levels of economic activity. This assumes that tax and consumer spending are constant.

Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/de...#ixzz3eKy9CtMm

Hugh 28-06-2015 10:10
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
And there's the kicker!

This assumes tax and consumers spending are constant - the taxes haven't been constant for decades.....

Krugman's article (where I found your IMF chart), states that Greece ran a small budget surplus last year, if you didn't count interest (I am assuming on Government debt) - that's like saying my bank account is in credit, if you don't count my mortgage payments or HP loan repayments.

He is being 'economical with the actualité'*......


*see what I did there? ;-)

Osem 28-06-2015 10:48
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
... and yet all of Greece's well known and evidently endemic economic problems still didn't prevent them being welcomed into the club they're now destabilising. It's all a bit FIFA...

Carlos Carboni 28-06-2015 10:57
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
ECB pulled the plug from the Greek banks! just now

Osem 28-06-2015 11:07
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
The European Central Bank is expected to end emergency lending to Greece's banks on Sunday, the BBC understands.

The country's banks depend on the ECB's Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA). Its governing council is meeting later.

Greece will probably have to "announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending the introduction of capital controls", a source told the BBC's Robert Peston.

The bailout for heavily indebted Greece expires on Tuesday and talks have broken down.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33303105

---------- Post added at 10:07 ---------- Previous post was at 09:59 ----------

As this situation worsens, I wonder whether there's going to be any resentment or action taken against those who're insulated against the problem e.g. the ex-pats who can rely upon external sources of income such as overseas investments and pensions. Once the ATM's start working again, there'll be those who'll have money to withdraw and those who don't. Many of the former won't even be Greek and I don't suppose Germans will be too popular.

nomadking 28-06-2015 11:30
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The Greek banks didn't really need the liquidity assistance. This has not been a case of people withdrawing large sums of their savings. It is withdrawing money they are going to need to spend on everyday things in the near future. They are withdrawing it just a bit sooner than they would otherwise do, ie Friday rather than risk waiting until Monday.

Carlos Carboni 28-06-2015 14:52
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlos Carboni (Post 35785541)
ECB pulled the plug from the Greek banks! just now

No, they will not pull the plug. Robert Preston was wrong, his sources were rubish and BBC caused panic for no reason

Hugh 28-06-2015 15:07
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
But legally they cannot lend further funds to an insolvent bank.

Quote:
the ECB cannot break its own rules by funding a banking system where the country is heading for a default.

Osem 28-06-2015 15:51
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
They'll probably come up with some new 'rules' with which to fix the problem.

Carlos Carboni 28-06-2015 15:54
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35785556)
But legally they cannot lend further funds to an insolvent bank.
BBC

BBC changed its mind or ECB changed tune ;)

Hugh 28-06-2015 17:12
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlos Carboni (Post 35785560)
BBC

BBC changed its mind or ECB changed tune ;)
From that (updated) link
Quote:
The European Central Bank says it not increasing its emergency funding for Greek banks, amid fears that Greece may default on its debts on Tuesday.

The decision not to raise the cap on aid to Greece increases the likelihood of bank closures and restrictions on cash withdrawals, analysts say.

That in turn could eventually result in Greece leaving the euro.

The ECB said that it stood ready to review the decision and would work closely with the Bank of Greece.

Carlos Carboni 28-06-2015 19:27
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The Greek banks decided to stay closed on Monday and most likely the rest of the week. A limit of 100 Euros will be imposed per person. The limit will include credit cards. No cheques will be cashed

The Athens stock market will be closed too.

Chris 28-06-2015 19:34
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Here comes the whirlwind ...

nomadking 28-06-2015 19:47
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Doesn't necessarily mean something is happening one way or the other. The Greek people would have continued to take the safest option, which is to withdraw as much cash as possible before the ATMs were closed off. They needed the cash anyway to spend on food etc.

Chris 28-06-2015 20:00
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35785587)
Doesn't necessarily mean something is happening one way or the other. The Greek people would have continued to take the safest option, which is to withdraw as much cash as possible before the ATMs were closed off. They needed the cash anyway to spend on food etc.
Wow. Head in the sand, much? :Yikes:

Banks staying closed and imposing withdrawal limits "doesn't necessarily mean something is happening"?

On the contrary, it means something very serious *is* happening, and the authorities are taking last resort emergency measures to try to stop it.

The ECB will not increase the total amount it is prepared to feed into the Greek banking system, because it is not allowed to provide liquidity beyond the level where the system would be bankrupt. The Greek banking system has immediately - immediately - taken extreme measures to prevent capital flight. This tells you everything you need to know about how close the Greek banking system itself has come to outright collapse.

This, by the way, is not even the same issue as the one the Greek government has been negotiating with the Eurozone over, for the past several days. Those negotiations are about making loans to the Greek state to enable it to fulfil its various financial obligations. The failure of those negotiations will have many serious consequences, and the banking crisis that is now coming to a head is just one of them, and arguably isn't even the most serious.

nomadking 28-06-2015 20:56
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35785588)
Wow. Head in the sand, much? :Yikes:

Banks staying closed and imposing withdrawal limits "doesn't necessarily mean something is happening"?

On the contrary, it means something very serious *is* happening, and the authorities are taking last resort emergency measures to try to stop it.

The ECB will not increase the total amount it is prepared to feed into the Greek banking system, because it is not allowed to provide liquidity beyond the level where the system would be bankrupt. The Greek banking system has immediately - immediately - taken extreme measures to prevent capital flight. This tells you everything you need to know about how close the Greek banking system itself has come to outright collapse.

This, by the way, is not even the same issue as the one the Greek government has been negotiating with the Eurozone over, for the past several days. Those negotiations are about making loans to the Greek state to enable it to fulfil its various financial obligations. The failure of those negotiations will have many serious consequences, and the banking crisis that is now coming to a head is just one of them, and arguably isn't even the most serious.
It's not head in the sand. It just means that it doesn't only point one way. It is that people would have continued to behave as if the ATMs would be closed in the future. They would continue to take money out. Withdrawing money from ATMs hardly comes under capital flight. How much can they take out at one time? People still need cash to pay for everyday things.

It could mean that something is happening, but on the other hand they would not give any warning of it. Eg Any printing of a new replacement currency would be done in secret for 2 weeks beforehand.

Chris 28-06-2015 21:09
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Oh good grief.

Carlos Carboni 28-06-2015 21:26
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35785593)
It's not head in the sand. It just means that it doesn't only point one way. It is that people would have continued to behave as if the ATMs would be closed in the future. They would continue to take money out. Withdrawing money from ATMs hardly comes under capital flight. How much can they take out at one time? People still need cash to pay for everyday things.

It could mean that something is happening, but on the other hand they would not give any warning of it. Eg Any printing of a new replacement currency would be done in secret for 2 weeks beforehand.
ATMs will be closed on Monday. It is rumored to be limited to 100 Euros per person including credit cards, when and if they open on Tuesday

No new business transactions.

Limits on money transfers internal and abroad.

The new currency is allegedly ready in Canada/Switzerland, rumored to be called Ovolos,

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2015/06/1.jpg

an ancient currency predating the Athenian drachma.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...nt-greek-notes

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...ticle24463037/

Chris 29-06-2015 00:00
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The Greek government has now finally bowed to the inevitable. There will be capital controls:

- Banks to stay shut until 7 July.
- Daily cash withdrawal limit will now be £42 (€60).
- No international cash transfers, except for those already arranged, or granted exceptional permission.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33305019

Crisis, what crisis?

Derek 29-06-2015 00:15
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
£42??

Yep move along, nothing to see here. Everything is fine, remain calm.

Chris 29-06-2015 00:21
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The thing I find astonishing right now is the Greeks who only just seem to have woken up and realised what's going on.

I'd have been operating entirely by cash for weeks if not months by now, if I'd been in that position. There is absolutely no way I'd have allowed myself to find my money locked away on the wrong side of capital controls, yet there they all are, queuing at their ATMs as if this all a great big surprise.

Carlos Carboni 29-06-2015 07:56
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35785613)
The thing I find astonishing right now is the Greeks who only just seem to have woken up and realised what's going on.

I'd have been operating entirely by cash for weeks if not months by now, if I'd been in that position. There is absolutely no way I'd have allowed myself to find my money locked away on the wrong side of capital controls, yet there they all are, queuing at their ATMs as if this all a great big surprise.
Most Greeks have no money in the banks. They operate in cash. But Credit/Debit cards have no capital control, provided they are used in Greece

The people that went to ATMs were the ones that were paid on Friday, most pensions were deposited on Friday morning, the people had to withdraw Friday, Saturday and Sunday (3 times their daily limit).

Hugh 29-06-2015 09:43
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
First line QFT ^

Even last September in Crete, nearly every business wanted cash, not credit/debit card.

Even the villa owner wanted cash when we arrived, rather than transfer beforehand.

Ignitionnet 29-06-2015 10:35
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The Greek media oligarchs have full propaganda mode running I see.

I read a nice ironic point; the Netherlands have taken as firm a line on Greece as anyone, which is pretty funny given their country is used by lots of Greek, and other nations', companies to avoid paying tax in the nation they are making the profit.

Osem 29-06-2015 11:17
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I'd have thought anyone who's been getting paid in cash in the last year or so is hardly likely to be declaring, let alone banking, all of it and that the already unfit for purpose tax system is even more so now. Seatbelts on for a very rocky ride in coming weeks I reckon.

tweetiepooh 29-06-2015 11:28
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So Greece can return to a situation where if they need foreign money, they devalue their currency, get lots of tourists bringing lots of nice mullah. Most transactions in cash so the people keep the money, spend it locally and eventually it all works it's way out.

Being in the Euro prevented them doing that so as a Mediterranean nation with a very different outlook and economy to countries in the North they got really stuck.

Osem 29-06-2015 11:30
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
What about the taxes required to pay the wages and pensions? There'll be even less receipts surely.

Chris 29-06-2015 11:41
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 35785658)
So Greece can return to a situation where if they need foreign money, they devalue their currency, get lots of tourists bringing lots of nice mullah. Most transactions in cash so the people keep the money, spend it locally and eventually it all works it's way out.

Being in the Euro prevented them doing that so as a Mediterranean nation with a very different outlook and economy to countries in the North they got really stuck.
True, but it's not as simple as that. Greece imports a lot of stuff, notably pharmaceuticals, and while they spend years slogging away to rebuild their economy, all of those things, valued as they are in Euros, Dollars or Pounds, will become horrendously expensive.

I think exiting the Euro is the way to go, but it will by no means be easy or painless.

Carlos Carboni 29-06-2015 13:09
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35785659)
What about the taxes required to pay the wages and pensions? There'll be even less receipts surely.
Most salaries and all pensions are deposited to the bank, taxed at source. Friday was the end of the month and a pay day, that's the reason of the queues on the ATMs. They had a daily withdrawal limit set by themselves for Fri, Sat and Sunday. Each person had to queue 3 times.

Today this limit has been reduced to 60 Euros. The ATMs are now open...

People with credit cards issued by a bank in Greece (even foreign ones) are stranded abroad. Citibank, Societe General, Deutsche Bank credit cards issued at Greek branch are blocked, when used here or in Europe or Asia etc--- they might work in Greece....

Damien 29-06-2015 13:24
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
You wonder how long the Greeks will give a pass to the Government really. They lied about what they could achieve, they've given a false sense of security that has only now been shattered and they're trying to dodge any responsibility or leadership by holding a referendum with two awful choices.

nomadking 29-06-2015 13:53
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Apparently if the Greek Government had done what has been asked of them for the past five years, then they would be in a much better state and perhaps seeing improvements. Instead they have been pig headed and wanting to get away with as much as possible. Ireland and Spain did what was needed to be done and are now in a better position as a result.

Osem 29-06-2015 16:03
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlos Carboni (Post 35785677)
Most salaries and all pensions are deposited to the bank, taxed at source.
I was only referring to all those who've been choosing to take cash only in payment e.g. restaurateurs, tradesmen etc. The more people/businesses choosing to do this, the less tax is going to wind up in the govt's coffers. Yes they'll have money that money to spend but are likely to stick as much as they can under their mattresses for a rainy day I'd have thought so it's a double whammy.

---------- Post added at 14:54 ---------- Previous post was at 14:52 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35785684)
Apparently if the Greek Government had done what has been asked of them for the past five years, then they would be in a much better state and perhaps seeing improvements. Instead they have been pig headed and wanting to get away with as much as possible. Ireland and Spain did what was needed to be done and are now in a better position as a result.
It seems they've become well used to getting away with being lax about borrowing, paying tax, overly generous pensions etc. for many years and now the chickens are coming home to roost in a major way.

---------- Post added at 15:03 ---------- Previous post was at 14:54 ----------

Quote:
The European Commission chief, Jean-Claude Juncker, has said he feels "betrayed" by the "egotism" shown by Greece in failed debt talks.

He told a news conference that Greek proposals were "delayed" or "deliberately altered" and the Greek people "should be told the truth", but the door was still open to talks.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33311240

It's all looking like the run up to a very messy divorce.

Kursk 29-06-2015 19:28
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35785684)
Ireland and Spain did what was needed to be done and are now in a better position as a result.
Talking of which, what has happened since the UK bailed out Ireland to the tune of several £bns?

Damien 29-06-2015 23:04
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35785782)
Talking of which, what has happened since the UK bailed out Ireland to the tune of several £bns?
Ireland are doing pretty well? Let's be clear anyway that was self-interest because of the exposure British Banks had in Ireland.

Osem 30-06-2015 09:29
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Are they going to pay us back one day?

heero_yuy 30-06-2015 10:07
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
When is a default not a default?

Quote:
IMF officials are clear that it would be considered the equivalent of a default. They just would not call it that.
So it's perfectly all right then. :rolleyes:

Can gets kicked down the road a little further.

Quote:
Greece will also be unable to pay back the European Central Bank, which it owes €3.5 billion on July 20.

A missed payment to the IMF, of course, isn't good. But given that the bank is an independent consortium of world finance, you could see it either as Greece missing a payment owed to most of the developed world, or as Greece missing a payment to nobody in particular.

If Greece were to miss a payment owed to the ECB, Greece is more directly and clearly missing payments owed to other members of the euro. This will be more politically toxic for the leaders of other euro members.

And again, Greece is considered "in arrears" to the IMF with a missed payment, and as the FT's Peter Spiegel notes, missing a payment to the ECB also will not be considered a default by S&P.
Linky

Even more semantics.:dozey:

As I see it there's really only two ways out:

Either cancel most of the debts, but that would give carte blanche to any other struggling Euro member to just let spending rip in the sure knowledge that the ECB would bail them out.

Or Get printing those Drachma's.

Osem 30-06-2015 10:12
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Pride comes before a fall or so they say.

I wonder if that translates into German...

Ignitionnet 30-06-2015 13:58
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35785684)
Apparently if the Greek Government had done what has been asked of them for the past five years, then they would be in a much better state and perhaps seeing improvements. Instead they have been pig headed and wanting to get away with as much as possible. Ireland and Spain did what was needed to be done and are now in a better position as a result.
Ya. Spain and Ireland.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIqfdVdWUAEGh26.jpg

Hugh 30-06-2015 14:20
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Love to the see correlating chart showing countries Government tax revenues...

Pierre 30-06-2015 19:25
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Greece debt crisis: Athens seeks new last-minute deal
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33325886

Great, like a game of cards, Greece have played their ace or joker?

Kursk 30-06-2015 20:01
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35785847)
Ireland are doing pretty well? Let's be clear anyway that was self-interest because of the exposure British Banks had in Ireland.
Well, I suppose you are doing pretty well if you run up debts that someone else pays. Oh wait...

Ignitionnet 30-06-2015 21:29
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This should surprise no-one.

Osem 30-06-2015 21:44
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I don't know about cards - the whole thing's a complete joke which would be funny if it wasn't so serious.


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