Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Oh it could work and if there is a collective intelligence failure and we vote to leave I think we wouldn't immediately fall over but there is no way we would be as successful as we would as part of the UK.

The NO campaign is negative as it's being realistic, the SNP will say and do anything to get a yes vote and their promises of lower taxes, higher benefits, better public services and a free unicorn for all are being shown up.

When you have umpteen experts saying your figures don't add up you should take notice rather than just sticking your fingers in your ears and saying 'La La La, it'll be fine'

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yes and if they buy all that SNP guff there's no way back from that decision. They can't suddenly decide it's all gone pear shaped and rejoin the UK at the next election. Voters need to focus on that stark reality before deciding where to put their 'X'. Salmond is Scotland's Bliar and anything he promises ought to be treated with the utmost scepticism.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I appreciate all of that Derek. However, in the event that there is a yes vote then Scotland will decide what promises it fulfills and how it fulfills them if at all. The opinions of experts based on a different paradigm (ie. the current status quo) are largely irrelevant in that particular context.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Apparently Gordy reckons that if Britain doesn't wake up it'll lose Scotland. Well we'll also lose a whole load of his mates in the Labour Party too.

Some clouds do indeed have a silver lining. :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well no because the feasibility of the promises are a central argument in this campaign. If you can have all those promises then I would imagine a lot more people would vote Yes, if you cannot then a lot more people would vote No.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

As stated earlier. A newly independent Scotland, if that turns out to be the end result, can and will seek to introduce whatever changes and honour whatever promises it wishes free from the interference or influence of others. What the outcomes of the implementation might be is anyones guess but to say that with independence they "can't" do anything is simply wrong.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Neatly solves the West lothian question and leaves Labour in opposition perminently. Some clouds are indeed silver lined.:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It isn't, if it depends on other parties agreement/co-operation - for instance, if the Yes Campaign state that if they win, they will definitely join the EU without any waiting, and will keep Sterling as a currency, and will use the existing taxation processes, and the EU/rUK do not agree/do not allow this to happen, the Yes Campaign will be voted in on false premises (and will then, I am sure, blame the EU/rUK for not delivering with something they never agreed to in the first place).

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

In fairness Hugh I was referencing "promises", not negotiable aspirations.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It will also wipe out the Tory and Lib Dems as well ... hooray.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yes at the same time as accusing their opponents of 'bullying', 'arrogance' and 'misrepresentation', the SNP has been behaving like a spoilt brat demanding what it wants from the rest of the UK and the EU then presenting those demands to the electorate as what it's going to get regardless of what anyone else thinks.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Alex doesn't sound as if he is aspiring to anything, but stating a fact.....

Grauniad 28th April 2014

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Setting aside a free unicorn for everyone Derek, whom I was replying to, made reference to promises on "lower taxes, higher benefits, better public services" . These promises, if indeed they are promises, are all achievable under an independent Scottish Government if it is their wont to deliver same - that was the point I was making.

If Salmond states in the event that the yes vote carries that he will conclude negotiations about membership of the EU within 18 months then let him.

I see no reason to doubt his ability to do.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

And if they're not 'completed within 18 months' what's he going to do about it? Honestly they accuse Cameron of arrogance but Salmond's the very epitome of that trait.

Anyway, it all sounds like 'bullying' to me...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

On the points of lower taxes, and higher benefits/better public services, I would be interested in how this would be achieved.

I see you share his confidence in an 18 months timescale - I have no confidence that the other parties (which have a right to veto) would deliver in that timescale, and it would be inappropriate (imho) to hold them responsible if it wasn't met (as they have never been involved/agreed to this timescale); however, I can see Mr Salmond playing that card....

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Unless they were 'bullied' into it by Bravemouth...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I have confidence in his and the EU's ability to conclude negotiations within a predetermined 18 month timescale.

That is quite different from having confidence in him achieving what he wants. They are two very different things.

He does make some compelling points on the issue of continued EU membership though.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Yes camp are presenting continuing EU membership as a given when the majority of experts are saying it is anything but. 18 months from start to finish is a very ambitious timetable, especially if the method of entry isn't yet agreed.

On another note I've heard a few Nats on the BBC and Sky trying to claim the whole pound issue is sorted by referring to the unnamed government source that said "Of course there would be a currency union" while failing to mention the second part of the quote about keeping trident at Faslane (something Salmond has ruled out) yet no one so far has called them out on it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Maybe someone's keeping their powder dry in order to put Bravemouth in his place when the time comes...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-...itics-27793967

So if the SNP stay true to the principles of their early leaders expect an organised burning of Harry Potter books sometime soon.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

She's just a bully... :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The blog post she put out is outstanding. The better together campaign should be printing out thousands of copies to give away. It sums things up perfectly and hits out as the yes campaign for refusing to acknowledge there is any risk involved with independence.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yes I heard a excerpt on the radio. As you'd expect she articulates the issues very well indeed.

Maybe there's a book in it - Harry Potter and the evil wizard Bravemouth... :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Unionius Protecto! Salmondius Expiliarmus! :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

:rofl:

Salmondius sounds like a rather pernicious bacterium which causes delusions, irrational behaviour and paranoia. :)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

This should be up in lights in every town and city in Scotland.

Well said, JK, but I hope you're ready for the bilious tidal wave that's coming your way, courtesy of Clan Cybernat, which will never forgive you for

A. Suggesting they're wrong, and
B. Being born in ... ENGLAND.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well done to J K Rowling for her donation to the No Vote Campaign

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Oooft the Guess crowd have gone a bit radge (see union supporting Scots can use slang as well) over JKs input including this charming tweet.

According to their twitter blurb the Dignity project are Scottish charity working in Africa with a CBCC programme Community Based Childcare Programme for orphans and vulnerable children but think abusing a woman for having an opinion is acceptable.

https://twitter.com/dignityproject/s...84436676034560
Disgraceful

There is a buzzfeed link with some other tweets but it's very NSFW due to swearing.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The "Yes" Campaign strike back....:D

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...1&d=1402498780

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Today's cartoon by Adams in the Telegraph:

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2014/06/19.jpg

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/cartoon/

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Democracy SNP style. Don't like what someone is saying just cut the off and move on.

http://m.scotsman.com/news/politics/...-law-1-3442059

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Some of the stories over the past 48 hours about the conduct of the YES campaign and their supporters, in regards to JK Rowling and Ms. Lally, have been shocking. The thing is some of the people spewing their bile on social media aren't even what you'd class as crackpots or ****-bags. The majority seem like decent people who have become heavily invested emotionally in the SNP's YES we can campaign. It's worrying. Unless you share the positive view of the SNP, and buy into their fantastical view of what Scotland can become, you get shot down in a storm of hatred. It's almost like people are brainwashed. Call me paranoid but a vote for YES feels like a vote for dictatorship, not democracy.

Regardless of what happens in September, Scotland now feels like a country divided. Everytime I go to the pub or a party, I hear people debating the issue. It always ends in raised voices, bad language and people falling out.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

There is no excuse for some of the behaviours being reported.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I would have to add, to balance things out, that the couple who won the lottery and provided funds to the YES campaign took plenty of grief from Better Together supporters as well. There's something about this whole issue that has brought out the ugly side of Scotland. I'm ashamed :(

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

There are nasty, bitter and pathetic people in all communities. Their shortcomings are their own and don't reflect on the majority of decent fair-minded people who wouldn't dream of stooping to that level. They're the ones who should be ashamed, not you. :tu:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Pope joins in, to give Alex Salmond a good shoeing:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ependence.html

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Even God is joining in!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It's well known that the Pope is just a sassenach bully... :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That's because their cause isn't righteous...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yes, this happened the same day JK Rowling donated a million to the No campaign, so the national news ran with JK and pretty much ignored Claire Lally. But the story still has legs here in Scotland, because Campbell Gunn, senior SpAd in Eck's office, clearly breached the civil service code that governs SpAd activities and should either have resigned, or been sacked. Neither has yet occurred.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

What a surprise...

I notice Bravemouth has condemned such antics on both sides of the debate however... :rolleyes:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Joke doing the rounds in my family that Salmond has been taking lessons in elections from Mugabe. It is no secret that I am fully in favour of Scotland voting yes, maybe then they will realise just how much English taxpayers subsidise their way of life. After Scotland, can we also have a vote in Wales and Northern Ireland please?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

There doesn't appear to be any evidence that the UK subsidises Scotland tbh.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If Scotland is subsidised by Engerland then why is Mr Cameron trying to keep Britain together? If Scotland is subsidised then most parties would be in favour of a split. I feel that Scotland is providing more than they consume and that's why Scotland is wanted by the goverment

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Hoi! No bringing facts into the independence debate. ;)

Or maybe the UK government don't want 300 years of history flushed down the pan at the hands of lies, spin and half truths.

If we leave then Andy Murray won't be a British Wimbledon winner, and we all know how much you love him. :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Irrespective of finances, Labour would never be in favour of a split due to the disproportionately large number of MPs they retain in Scotland.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I do disagree with this however. Scotland isn't subsidised but even if it were that would be no reason for a spilt. Wales is 'subsidised' but I wouldn't want them to break away. The North is also 'subsidised' but again breaking away would be awful. This is how a country works. Some areas generate more income than other areas but really no one is being subsidised as we're all one country. People move around, companies gain from customers across the Kingdom, they gain staff from across the kingdom too.

Its awfully insular to think in terms of region vs region. That's not too say some regions don't have issues unique to their area, poor transport in the South-West, collapse of industry in the North etc but our countries' resources aren't meant to be kept in the region from which they are generated.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The mask is slipping.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile...inney.24490040

So no idea what the national debt would be, no idea what interest rates iScotland would be paying and no idea what currency we'd be using yet running up huge debts is the plan.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Not surprised to be honest their whole plan seems to be guesswork and hope and yet they will still have plenty backing them up. Scots need to start realising how all this is playing in the wider world and how much credibility an independent Scotland will have in the eyes of the world.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Draft "Constitution" published.

"A draft of the first constitution for an independent Scotland, legally asserting the sovereignty of the Scottish people but with the Queen as head of state, has been published by the SNP administration in Edinburgh".

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Thinks that's a bit unfair. It's based on what Bravemouth wants and has told everyone he's going to get. I'm sure he'll deliver on all those demands and promises... :rolleyes:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Slightly awkward for the guess camp who have made a big hoo hah about Scotland being nuclear free after independence.

http://m.stv.tv/news/glasgow/279363-...fter-yes-vote/

Slightly related but assuming Salmond gets a yes vote, gets independence, gets rid of Faslane and gets into NATO (A lot of assumptions but that's the SNP way) would he bar nuclear powered and armed vessels from Scottish waters during exercises and visits?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Interestingly they advocate their desire to join NATO while making it clear we'll have to remove Trident from Faslane as soon as possible and committing to a non-nuclear nation in a constitution. Yet more 'let's have our cake and eat it too'* politics from Salmond. He'll happily lecture us on nuclear weapon, demand they're removed from Scotland, and then sign up to be protected by the three nuclear states as part of NATO.

*although if it's your cake then that makes sense. Why should someone else have it? This isn't really his cake. It's ours and he claims he doesn't want the cake but really he'll take a bite of the cake while lecturing us about the amount of sugar it contains and boasting how he doesn't have cake! Fat git.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well, dual nationality it is then....I thought there was a difference of opinion on this bit, but Wee Eck seems to think he's right

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I certainly hope we do not leave, We will be in the gutter while Salmon will think he is king of the castle

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

China is bullying Alex Salmond.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-27894257

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...1&d=1403086363 http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...1&d=1403086363

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

:rofl:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

YouGov's latest poll for the Sun gives No 53%, Yes 36% and d/k 11% - excluding the undecided, it's No 60% Yes 40%, which is *still*, after all the arguing, within the usual range of nationalist sentiment over the past several decades.

YouGov states that since the 'Yes Bounce' earlier this year, changes have been within their margin of error, so it's difficult to tell if anyone's opinion is actually still changing.

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/06/18/...ce-no-lead-17/

http://www.bettertogether.net/page/-...06.jpg/@mx_572

Image from Better Together

---------- Post added at 16:26 ---------- Previous post was at 16:20 ----------

Meanwhile, Colin Montgomerie's got it in one. Poor Eck.

[img]Download Failed (1)[/img]

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The YouGov poll is good although worth nothing that some other polls, namely ICM and Survation, have it a lot closer.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Indeed, however it's also worth nothing that ICM and Survation aren't very good at getting definitive answers out of people. For some reason they come back with relatively high levels of 'don't know' compared to YouGov. I'm not sure why this is, although I suspect there is something in the methodology that makes people more likely to give a firm answer with YouGov.

*If* there is any significance to the variation in 'don't know' between polls, it would tend to indicate that people who say they are undecided, when they do actually make a choice between Yes and No, are more likely to go for No.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Hopefully. It's odd to have polls so different from each other but aligning in different places. You have three converging around 40% and three converging around 45%. It will be different methodologies as they're too consistent for it to be anything else. Panelbase aligns, albeit a point or two higher, with ICM and Survation but for previously discussed reasons they're not massively trusted.

I wonder if it's sampling. How do you sample for a one-off event? I.E Do you go with the Holywood elections with might mean the sample is made up of a higher proportion of SNP voters than actually exists in the electorate or do you use some other criteria? I know I looked at Mori and they asked the question 'How would you vote in the next election?' and sampled the Independence Question on those findings (two different polls). Do you use the Scottish Election or the Westminster one? The first would oversample SNP the latter would undersample them! A combination? AGHHH.

It could be they're all messed up and Independence doesn't correlate well with political affiliation which would mean all the polls are suspect and we have no idea what is actually happening. Which is worrying. It would be interesting to see the Internal polling from the campaigns as they'll have a better idea of the questions to ask.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If the internal polls of the Yes camp were as rosy as some of the hard-line cybernats keep claiming, you can bet your lottery ticket that they'd have published them. For that reason, I suspect the Yessers' private polls are the same, or worse (for them) as the public ones.

On the other hand any research the UK government may have done, they would have to keep very quiet about - if they published a poll showing solid support for No, they'd immediately be accused of trying to unduly influence the debate and the vote.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Equally, on the other hand there is the argument put forward by the Yes campaign that if the Government are spending tax payers monies on polls and surveys then the tax payer has a right to see the results.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm aware of that, though I'm not certain how FOI would apply. Perhaps the Yes should have a go. Assuming the poll they were talking about actually exists, that is. Its existence having been 'revealed' by someone who never worked for the polling company she claimed to work for, and all that.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

And subsequently confirmed by David Cameron (5m:27s), and all that.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Government almost certainly has polling on this. Governments poll people all the time so do the parties. The thing is they will be less interested in the headline result than they are the other questions that accompany the poll which will be used to direct their message/campaign. The revelation of which will be a hinderance to the campaign as it let's your rivals know what you're thinking as well as providing, for free, the results you got.

It's very likely that the Government polled on the question of a Currency Union before making their intervention for example.

The secret poll is just spin by the Yes campaign to fuel their sense of paranoia. It sounds dodgy but happens all the time. Governments poll on a lot of things.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

"....as well as providing, for free, the results you got."

The point is that it's not "for free" if it's tax payers money which funded it.

The "secret poll" isn't a "Secret poll". David Cameron has confirmed that it exists.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Just love that one

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Government advice is also not free if it's tax payers money that funded it. You have to be able to govern without every thought, question, advice or information you have access too being widely distributed amongst the public.

It's symptomatic of the Yes campaign's flailing, scattershot, approach to every perceived slight from the UK and Better Together that they pretend this is new or unfair. They're trigger-happy opportunists that value winning the issue of the day on Twitter than winning the war at large. I suspect it's cooler heads at the SNP and the Scottish Parliament that have stopped them pushing it. They don't want to open that can of worms because, it's almost certain, that they've paid for polling and advice over Independence that they don't want in the public domain. Questions that might suggest they're open to nuclear weapons at Faslane, advice that might show the Currency Union isn't the massive bonanza of common-sense they have claim it is, maybe advice on if they could join the EU as quickly as they've claimed.

They probably have many polls commissioned by this stage and it's possible the one that triggered the Nats outrage didn't exist but Cameron in referring to the many others which may, or may not, be the one the random person 'revealed' in a newspaper letter. It's also 'secret' because they won't reveal the results in the same way Government advice is 'secret'.

It's secret in the same way the Scottish Government paid £20,000 to make sure that no one knew that the 'secret' EU legal advice they received didn't actually exist: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...ttle-1-3133692. They paid £20,000 to keep it a secret that the secret they had didn't exist so their sudden outrage over a poll is a bit rich.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They're both at it Damien. Each side can be as bad as the other in some regards.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Does Colin Montgomerie mean because the Government puts more money into Scotland than what it takes in taxes, because Scotland will become less competitive in the world or something else :confused:

If it us a vote for independence, does anyone know if we would we have border controls and/or have to use passports when visiting Scotland?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

we don't know yet...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

He means the current pledges by the SNP are uncosted and their own figures shows oil revenues declining over the coming years.

No one knows. Initially I'd imagine it would be like the border between N.I. And the republic but if iScotland doesn't waltz into the EU with all the UKs opt outs and had to introduce Schengen who knows what would happen.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Ed Balls talking balls.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I believe the whole point of that hoo-haa wasn't so much that governments do secret polls, but that the government was in possession of one that had shown Yes in the lead. Cameron has not, as far as I can see, admitted the existence of such a poll.

Given that half a dozen reputable polling companies have failed to produce such a poll in public at any time in the last 24 months, the claim is bizarre.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Some interesting points at the end of the article.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

ICM also had differing results to everyone else in the EU elections, putting the Tories ahead of UKIP. Turned out ICM was just as wrong as the last time they did a similar poll. I certainly wouldn't trust their poll results.

If the government ordered a Yougov poll using taxpayers money, then it should be available to the public.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Nor is he ever likely to admit to having a poll stating such a thing whether it exists or not.

Bizarre it may be Chris but the fact stands there is a poll which, as correctly identified by an indiviudual via a letter to the press, Mr Cameron has refused, and continues to refuse, to publish. The content of the poll, whatever it might be, could be easily established should Mr Cameron elect to publish same.

He won't.

Essentially someone privy to certain information, using a pseudonym for clearly obvious reasons, wrote to the paper alleging that there was a poll that the Cabinet Office were suppressing and, by bizarre coincidence, that happened to be exactly the case.

What are the chances?

Interestingly (and I'm happy to be corrected) I'm not aware of any Government or Cabinet source coming out and categorically denying the allegation that the poll shows a rise in the support for the Yes vote or putting the Yes vote in the lead.

Have you ever considered the possibility that the half a dozen reputable polling companies in whom you place so much stock might just be providing us with the results others want us to see?

Just a thought.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That's not a thought, Mr A, that's paranoid rambling. Seriously.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Nice sidestep Chris.

You can't seriously be suggesting that manipulation of polls doesn't exist?

You've even gone so far as to allege as much about some of the survation polls, have you not?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Which you have now countered with a subtle segue in your argument from "the Scottish referendum polls are being manipulated" to "the manipulation of polls exists".

As a general statement, the latter I think is reasonable, even without specific evidence. The former, I believe, requires specific evidence to back it up.

As you have (almost) remembered, there are questions over the legitimacy of some polls in the indy referendum. As it happens it's Panelbase, not Survation. Panelbase had to close its panel to new members earlier this year because it suspected it was being flooded with nationalists posing as others in order to try to skew the results towards Yes.

However, I don't believe any of that justifies the leaden paranoia evident in your earlier comment which (and please correct me if I've misunderstood you), implied a co-ordinated, deliberate campaign of misinformation spanning multiple unconnected polling companies who have been commissioned by multiple unconnected clients, from both sides of the independence debate. Do you have any evidence of this?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If there was a poll indicating "Yes", wouldn't it be one of many? If it is an isolated example, then it is meaningless and hadn't been properly carried out.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Apologies re the mix up over Panelbase & Survation, thanks for the correction.

I don't believe I've segued anywhere to be honest. Did I state "the Scottish referendum polls are being manipulated"?

My "earlier comment" wasn't a comment Chris, you have indeed misunderstood me, it was a question. I implied nothing. I asked if you had ever "...considered the possibility".

That said, it is not unheard of for allegations to have been levelled at multiple polling agencies.

In this particular instance (the independence dabate) I don't have evidence of poll manipulation but then again I have no need for evidence as I haven't stated such things to be fact.

I'm content to know that poll manipulation exists because it has been manifestly proven to be fact in certain cases, I don't believe I have said it is the case in this situation.

Now, has any Government or Cabinet source come out and categorically denied the allegation that the poll shows a rise in the support for the Yes vote or putting the Yes vote in the lead?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

By asking the question you're putting the idea out there without actually saying it. You've introduced the notion that the polls are rigged into the discussion.

Yup. That why it's 'asked as a question'. Introduce it into the debate without having to have any substance to it.

As for notion it's unlikely. Polling companies work for profit and many of them trade upon their reputation and whilst a few, less-reputatable, pollsters might produce favourable results most will not. It's in their commerical interests to get it right. YouGov are a international polling organisation, they're not going to throw away their reputation to rig a poll result. Also when multiple polls are saying the same thing then it's also unlikely to be rigged unless they're all in on it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

A spectacular analytical analysis Damien, thank you.

Now, setting aside the fact that nowhere did I allege or state that the independence polls were or are rigged - but acknowledging that such behaviours are entirely possible - is anyone aware of any Government or Cabinet source having come out to categorically deny the allegation by the pseudonym correspondent that the unpublished Government commissioned tax-payer funded YouGov poll shows a rise in the support for the Yes vote or putting the Yes vote in the lead?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They do weighting on nearly all polls which changes the results of the poll anyway. The way the weighting is done tend to make results vary quite a bit depending on how it's done. So a single result could get presented to everyone with numerous different values.

Organisations will often pay for polls to be done by many pollsters in secrecy and then use the data from the one that makes them look best and only mention that poll. With there being such a variation between some pollsters, no doubt could get results that suit you best.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Are you working your way towards a point?

---------- Post added at 07:50 ---------- Previous post was at 07:47 ----------

Methodology counts for something, certainly. Prof John Curtice was explaining the other day why ICM, for example, reports an unusually high number of undecideds. It's because their sample includes non-voters from the 2011 Holyrood election. The reckoning is that this group is not politically engaged but is more likely to come out for the referendum than for an election. This group naturally includes more non-committal responses.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

No Chris, merely asking a question. Are you working your way towards an answer?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm working my way towards wondering whether you're trying to get me to make your point for you. ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Here is the latest poll of polls...

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2014/06/9.jpg

What Scotland Thinks

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

So if Scotland votes No does the Queen get to thrown Salmond into the Tower of London?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

He'd cost too much to maintain.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I was down the high street today. The Yessers had a table in the town square. Most people were passing them quickly with their heads down. They tried to buttonhole a couple of old ladies who were walking by and got *very* short shrift. It was delightful to see. :D

I walked past then, and hoped they might try to leaflet me, but they seemed to want to ignore me. I guess I must just have "unionist and argumentative" written all over me ...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Where you wearing a England top?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If anyone is interested, there is a programme on BBC2 at 04:00 on Tuesday 24 June 2014.

It will follow teenagers who are preparing a play about the decision.

Do they know something we don't :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Sounds to me like he's the one going to make up the shortfall