Cable Forum - Russia has invaded Ukraine

From the sounds of it, we don't think there is a realistic prospect of giving them planes until soon but we will go ahead anyway with a view that post-war Ukraine will need an army sharpish to avoid further invasions.

There’s a rapidly developing received wisdom that we can’t give them Typhoons because they’d be vulnerable to Russian surface-air missiles, we have limited ability to send the necessary repair/logistics with them, and in any case we could only supply the oldest ‘tranche 1’ model which only has limited ground attack capability.

I am however seeing some commentators pointing out that Ukrainians flying Typhoons would be in no greater peril from Russian SAMs than those flying the Soviet era planes they’re using right now, that T1 Typhoons operated by the UK have Paveway 2 guided bombs which are still and uplift from Ukraine’s present capability (T3s and F35s can deploy Paveway 4), and that while the UK might spare 24 T1s at a push, that number could be bolstered by Germany that also has T1s it will eventually phase out, as could Italy and possibly Spain.

Paul	10-02-2023 02:58

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36145547)

Might a collective NATO response risk a greater chance of WWII ...

I think you may have missed it, I believe WWII finished around 80 years ago. ;)

Mad Max

11-02-2023 20:36

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36145593)

I think you may have missed it, I believe WWII finished around 80 years ago. ;)

1andrew1

22-02-2023 22:02

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Interesting conclusion from Threshed Thought (aka Mike Martin)

Quote:

...Except that this year, the Ukrainians have to win.

They cannot let this drag on into 2024 - the year of the US presidential election.

Far too risky.

So we have another few weeks of attrition against the Russian attacks, and then a Ukrainian armoured offensive, probably in the south.

And they have to win. In 2023.

ENDS

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/...76681793699840

1andrew1

14-03-2023 12:33

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

A news item backing up Threshed Thought's above tweets:

Quote:

Ron DeSantis Says Protecting Ukraine Is Not a Key U.S. Interest

The Florida governor, on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show, broke with Republicans to attack President Biden’s foreign policy and align more closely with Donald Trump as he weighs a presidential bid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/u...e=articleShare

Chris

14-03-2023 18:05

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Russian fighter jet harasses and damages a US surveillance drone in the Black Sea; USAF initiates controlled crash landing to destroy it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64957792

No doubt tempers are fraying in the Russian military, given how much they’re losing to US/NATO armaments in Ukraine. This, however, is extremely reckless of them and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some harsh words over the back channels tonight.

Pierre

15-03-2023 08:41

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36148259)

A news item backing up Threshed Thought's above tweets:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/u...e=articleShare

I listened to his reply to Tucker Carlson. He didn’t say he wouldn’t support Ukraine, he just ruled out US troops being involved.

And he also ruled out, jets and long range missiles.

He supports pushing back Russia, to their border and no more, he does nor support any incursion by Ukraine into Russia.

Chris

15-03-2023 13:18

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36148287)

In other words he’s refusing to back things that nobody thinks Ukraine should do, and things Ukraine itself does not want - with the exception of ATACMS and F16s, which is moot because the US will give them to Ukraine long before the next presidential election anyway.

It’s tough talking for the benefit of the Trump wing of the party which in reality doesn’t much change his previously expressed position and even if he won both the nomination and then the election would be unlikely to alter the US’s posture towards Ukraine anyway.

1andrew1

16-03-2023 17:04

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Poland to send at least four MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine

Poland becomes the first NATO member country to fulfil the Ukrainian government's increasingly urgent requests for warplanes.

"Firstly, literally within the next few days, we will hand over, as far as I remember, four aircraft to Ukraine in full working order," Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Thursday.

"The rest are being prepared, serviced."

It makes Poland the first NATO member country to fulfil the Ukrainian government's increasingly urgent requests for warplanes.

Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly said his country needs jets to effectively fight back against Russia's invasion.

Both the UK and US have ruled out sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

https://news.sky.com/story/poland-to...raine-12835338

Pierre

17-03-2023 09:17

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36148361)

https://news.sky.com/story/poland-to...raine-12835338

Quote:

Both the UK and US have ruled out sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine

Well the UK has definitely ruled sending F-16s, as we don't have any.

Chris

17-03-2023 10:17

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Just in case anyone was wondering about the likely diplomatic calibre of an independent Scotland in situations like the Russia-Ukraine war, here’s SNP leadership candidate Humza Yousaf meeting a room full of Ukrainian women refugees and asking them “where are all the men?”

Chris

17-03-2023 16:26

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Well this is inconvenient. For Vlad, that is.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64992727

Quote:

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The court alleges he is responsible for war crimes, including the unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia.

Obviously he’s not about to hand himself over but it does mean he’s going to have to be careful which countries he travels to for the rest of his life. And hope that nobody at any point accidentally helps him to land in a country willing to arrest him and hand him over. That would be most unfortunate.

pip08456

17-03-2023 16:42

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36148391)

Well this is inconvenient. For Vlad, that is.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64992727

Obviously he’s not about to hand himself over but it does mean he’s going to have to be careful which countries he travels to for the rest of his life. And hope that nobody at any point accidentally helps him to land in a country willing to arrest him and hand him over. That would be most unfortunate.

I think his future visit to the next G20 meeting has now been cancelled.

Vid of the ICC announcement.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...57491320061957

Also worth mentioning one of the other arrest warrants.

Quote:

Maria Lvova-Belova, Russian 'commissioner for children', for illegal deportation and illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.

I think there could be a few more.

Hugh	21-03-2023 16:49

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Chris

21-03-2023 18:28

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

I wonder how many of these men will be ‘persuaded’ to sign a contract and remain in uniform. The Russians are absolutely desperate for cannon fodder, I can’t see them letting thousands of men demobilise so easily, whatever promises have been made.

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