Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

He gave a projection of what might happen if the UK invoked Article 50 on 24 June. This event did not happen so we will never know if he was right or wrong.

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"Interest rates will go up. I meant down. No, up. Down. Up. Doh".

On the bright side when we can finally shoehorn him out of his cushy, overpaid job, he can go home and manage the newly signed EU/Canadian trade deal. The one that doesn't insist on free movement of people...

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your pretty good at the money game you should apply for his job ;)

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:D

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Britain will discover that distance still matters in trade

"...Not only have so-called gravity models of trade shown that the distance to a trading partner and the size of its economy matter for goods but, remarkably, they also reveal that the same seems to be true for services.

The negative effect of distance on trade has been evident for decades, even if economists struggled to explain its persistence. The ubiquity of the standard shipping container, the computerisation of transport logistics and the digitisation of production processes, enabling dispersed economies to be woven into a single supply chain, have not reduced the importance of proximity.

The standard analysis for goods is that each doubling of distance with a trading partner halves trade between them. A survey of Canadian services exports found that each 1 per cent increase in distance with a trading partner reduced trade by a third. The International Monetary Fund, which generated some estimates for the UK, found that the effect of distances on services trade was even higher than for goods."
https://www.ft.com/content/964afa06-...8-d3778b55a923

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thats a bummer for Canada and the EU trade deal then .

nice link to a paywall

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Well you seem to be the ever wise sage on this forum regarding all and sundry so perhaps you are better qualified to apply for it.;)

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just a patriotic Brit rooting for his country ,i have never claimed to be anything other , and i have a job which involves taking large amounts of money from VM for my services ;)

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It's a registration wall, like some newspapers a limited number of articles are free.
Canada's a population of 36m and a long way away so possibly not a major EU export market.

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Bluff and double bluff. The EU has plenty of history of wanting to curtail and tax the banks and that's the reason there won't be any wholesale movement of banking into the EU.

The French are making noises in order to influence our negotiating position and if they weren't we'd all be greatly surprised. They're going to make all sorts of gestures to try to undermine what our govt. is trying to negotiate on our behalf. The banks will be playing that game too just as they have done in the past in order to influence government regulation here. It's laughable really - it wasn't that long ago that an awful lot of people were saying let the banks sod off given the massive mess they created. Now we're once again being scared into thinking that they'll do it. They won't leave in droves because the EU will always be a less profitable and more highly regulated market for them to operate in. That's what the EU is at it's core - more regulated, more bureaucratic and more expensive to operate within.

I think we all need to remember that there are huge banking problems in store within the EU and when they come to the fore again everyone will be banging on about how toxic all these banks are. At that point the French will no doubt start going on about more stringent controls/taxes and how it's bankers who caused all the world's ills as opposed to politicians who created the flawed regulatory framework they exploited and cooked the books to allow Greece into their silly club. I dare say Hollande (if he lasts that long) will then claim they'll be seeking compensation from us for the role the City of London played back in the lead up to 2008. Maybe we'll even be timid enough to pay them off rather than telling them where to go... Alternatively May could organise some overtures to all those French companies suffering badly right now, reminding them that life's a lot cheaper and simpler in the UK.

This is negotiating at it's very best and it's going to continue for some time so we can expect companies as well as countries to try to exploit the situation to secure price rises etc. for the very same reason. The UK needs to remain strong and not be panicked into anything which ends up with us snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

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The one that's taken 10 years to put together and compared to the deal we need is positively basic, is that the one

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this one ?
Don't celebrate Justin Trudeau signing the Ceta deal with the EU – like TTIP, it is a ticking time bomb
This toxic trade deal has been subject to the same massive protest movement that greeted TTIP. Nearly 3.5 million Europeans said they didn’t want either deal and there are hundreds of TTIP and CETA-free local authorities across Europe

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7388841.html

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A sign of things to come, doesn't bode well for our deal

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Nissan deal 'won't persuade others to invest'

This important adviser recommended Nissan build its plant in the UK. What does he say now? "Until that final shape of the UK is clear, we will have to hold the investment decisions."
What does he have to say about Nissan's recent decision? "I don't think other companies will follow suit."

Quite an enlightening interview. I would have expected other companies to follow Nissan's lead.

More details http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37835797

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He also said, "We don't have enough information to make a prudent judgement."

As a strategist, I'd not expect him to say anything else.