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-   -   Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered ! (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33704414)

pip08456 10-07-2017 13:59
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelstar (Post 35907105)
I am staying on topic. :)

So do you feel it is correct that we should dismiss all predictions by 'experts'? Especially since many of these people have spent much of their careers working in their respective fields? If a majority of reports surrounding Brexit suggest that the outcome will only make us poorer we should simply ignore it because it is a 'prediction'?

I am only aware of one study which showed a net gain for the UK in event of Brexit, and that specific report has been wholeheartedly debunked in recent months.
So far you appear to be trying to discuss "Experts" and if they should be believed or not other than Brexit which is what this thread is about.

You mention a report that has been debunked yet don't provide a link to it. Don't expect forum members to do the research for you. If you want to discuss a report about the impact of Brexit then link to it.

denphone 10-07-2017 14:01
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35907116)
Expressing opinions and trying to change the result are very different things. ;)
They obviously don't know the meaning of democracy then.

Travelstar 10-07-2017 14:03
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35907108)
Absolutely. No expert has worked in the field of leaving the EU and I don't know how many times I can make myself more clearer. I stand by my post(s)!
Academics model things all the time. Brexit is effectively an amalgam of some of these models. Should we just discard these as all being wrong? Thus far they are actually proving right. The game theorists alone are looking pretty spot on which is why Varoufakis work is often looked to (and I definitely don't share his politics, but I do respect his academic work, in which he has been a leader in the thinking).

Mick 10-07-2017 14:17
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelstar (Post 35907119)
Academics model things all the time. Brexit is effectively an amalgam of some of these models. Should we just discard these as all being wrong? Thus far they are actually proving right. The game theorists alone are looking pretty spot on which is why Varoufakis work is often looked to (and I definitely don't share his politics, but I do respect his academic work, in which he has been a leader in the thinking).
I think the world accepts Academics or that E = MC˛. However, Brexit is not something than can be worked out in simple terms. Nobody can be an expert in brexit.

The Australian PM has just said in a Press conference in Downing Street that, Australia has had uninterrupted growth in Free Market Trade for 26 years! If they can prosper, so can we and we can the ditch the corrupted entity, the EU once and for all!

Travelstar 10-07-2017 14:34
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35907117)
So far you appear to be trying to discuss "Experts" and if they should be believed or not other than Brexit which is what this thread is about.

You mention a report that has been debunked yet don't provide a link to it. Don't expect forum members to do the research for you. If you want to discuss a report about the impact of Brexit then link to it.
It looks like I have done more research than most then! Regardless, happy to oblige. Now I need to get back to my real day job. :)

https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/201...percent/#_ftn2

---------- Post added at 13:34 ---------- Previous post was at 13:31 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35907121)
I think the world accepts Academics or that E = MC˛. However, Brexit is not something than can be worked out in simple terms. Nobody can be an expert in brexit.

The Australian PM has just said in a Press conference in Downing Street that, Australia has had uninterrupted growth in Free Market Trade for 26 years! If they can prosper, so can we and we can the ditch the corrupted entity, the EU once and for all!
What a ridiculous statement to make. Of course you can model things that have not taken place. These same models can be remarkably accurate. This is what science and economic science is all about!

Also what has Australia got to do with the price of fish? It's an apples and oranges comparison with two vastly different economies. Whilst the cultural similarities are undeniable, the countries overall operate very differently and are on totally different scales (large country, small population, etc, etc ,etc).

Mick 10-07-2017 14:46
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelstar (Post 35907126)

What a ridiculous statement to make. Of course you can model things that have not taken place. These same models can be remarkably accurate. This is what science and economic science is all about!
Complete rubbish. Noone can model brexit!

I totally disagree and I repeat, noone is an expert on Brexit. Noone knows what amount of trade deals we can get, noone knows how much we could actually prosper by and on our OWN terms.

Travelstar 10-07-2017 15:09
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35907129)
Complete rubbish. Noone can model brexit!

I totally disagree and I repeat, noone is an expert on Brexit. Noone knows what amount of trade deals we can get, noone knows how much we could actually prosper by and on our OWN terms.
If you want to bury your head in the sand, go for it. Modelling is definitely possible and done on all manor of different topics. Obviously the more variables you can account for, the better the model.

I'd also suggest you read up on game theory and try and at least have an appreciation for how blocs work and why they are advantageous to join. I've already mentioned one of the leering academics in this field, so it's definitely worth starting there.

At the end of the day, whilst I don't accept Brexit is the right way forward, I do believe it will happen. When you end up substantially poorer, please don't complain to those whom did our homework.

Mick 10-07-2017 15:43
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelstar (Post 35907130)
If you want to bury your head in the sand, go for it. Modelling is definitely possible and done on all manor of different topics. Obviously the more variables you can account for, the better the model.

I'd also suggest you read up on game theory and try and at least have an appreciation for how blocs work and why they are advantageous to join. I've already mentioned one of the leering academics in this field, so it's definitely worth starting there.

At the end of the day, whilst I don't accept Brexit is the right way forward, I do believe it will happen. When you end up substantially poorer, please don't complain to those whom did our homework.
My suggestion is, don't suggest to me anything that involves reading theory on misery and false doom and gloom. :zzz:

My mind was made up, based on years of failures already experienced in the EU and the corruption that exists within it and the unbalanced economics of the entire group, staying in a corrupted mess, makes absolutely no sense and I am glad and will always be glad with my vote that contributed the right result.

Has it sunk in yet that I always stand by my posts ?

OLD BOY 10-07-2017 16:51
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelstar (Post 35907105)
I am staying on topic. :)

So do you feel it is correct that we should dismiss all predictions by 'experts'? Especially since many of these people have spent much of their careers working in their respective fields? If a majority of reports surrounding Brexit suggest that the outcome will only make us poorer we should simply ignore it because it is a 'prediction'?

I am only aware of one study which showed a net gain for the UK in event of Brexit, and that specific report has been wholeheartedly debunked in recent months.
Er, in case you hadn't noticed, the predictions of what would happen immediately after a 'leave' vote have been widely astray, and the economy has done better than many on the remain side thought.

Experts have been proved wrong before, and if you believe everything they say, you are a little gullible, I have to mention.

I don"t see why so many remainers think that trading with the rest of the world is such a bad thing, and also why some of them believe that our trade with the EU would dry up when we leave. That isn't going to happen!

---------- Post added at 16:49 ---------- Previous post was at 16:43 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelstar (Post 35907130)
If you want to bury your head in the sand, go for it. Modelling is definitely possible and done on all manor of different topics. Obviously the more variables you can account for, the better the model.

I'd also suggest you read up on game theory and try and at least have an appreciation for how blocs work and why they are advantageous to join. I've already mentioned one of the leering academics in this field, so it's definitely worth starting there.

At the end of the day, whilst I don't accept Brexit is the right way forward, I do believe it will happen. When you end up substantially poorer, please don't complain to those whom did our homework.
I wonder what a model would say about the future UK economy if EU trade remained broadly the same, with no tariffs, and the UK was able to agree respectable trade deals with the other major economies of the world?

---------- Post added at 16:51 ---------- Previous post was at 16:49 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35907118)
They obviously don't know the meaning of democracy then.
How is trying to change a democratic vote democratic, Den? Or did I misunderstand your comment?

:confused:

denphone 10-07-2017 16:58
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35907144)
Er, in case you hadn't noticed, the predictions of what would happen immediately after a 'leave' vote have been widely astray, and the economy has done better than many on the remain side thought.

Experts have been proved wrong before, and if you believe everything they say, you are a little gullible, I have to mention.

I don"t see why so many remainers think that trading with the rest of the world is such a bad thing, and also why some of them believe that our trade with the EU would dry up when we leave. That isn't going to happen!

---------- Post added at 16:49 ---------- Previous post was at 16:43 ----------


I wonder what a model would say about the future UK economy if EU trade remained broadly the same, with no tariffs, and the UK was able to agree respectable trade deals with the other major economies of the world?

---------- Post added at 16:51 ---------- Previous post was at 16:49 ----------



How is trying to change a democratic vote democratic, Den? Or did I misunderstand your comment?

:confused:
You misunderstood it OB as even though l did not vote for Brexit we should respect the democratic vote.

That does not stop anybody having a opinion and a view though as free speech is part of democracy as well as some seem to have forgotten that on here...;)

Paul 10-07-2017 17:16
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
You can "model" pretty much anything, but that doesnt mean the model is actually useful or right.

Osem 10-07-2017 17:29
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35907118)
They obviously don't know the meaning of democracy then.
Correct. They don't. ;)

---------- Post added at 17:29 ---------- Previous post was at 17:25 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelstar (Post 35907130)
At the end of the day, whilst I don't accept Brexit is the right way forward, I do believe it will happen. When you end up substantially poorer, please don't complain to those whom did our homework.
Don't fret. We won't be complaining but we might remind you how much worse off we'd have been inside the EU when it finally implodes.

:D

pip08456 10-07-2017 18:44
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelstar (Post 35907126)

What a ridiculous statement to make. Of course you can model things that have not taken place. These same models can be remarkably accurate. This is what science and economic science is all about!
Care to explain this then?

Quote:
Butter is rich in saturated fats and a recent study has shown that the supposed link between moderate intake of saturated fats and coronary heart disease does not appear to exist – contradicting about 50 years of health advice.
So much for experts!

Link

Getting back to Brexit and economic forecasts by "experts" there are several models which can be used to predict an outcome.

You have to balance which model was used to get the result that the commissioning party wanted. You can use statistics to predict anything you want.

OLD BOY 10-07-2017 18:46
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35907149)
You misunderstood it OB as even though l did not vote for Brexit we should respect the democratic vote.

That does not stop anybody having a opinion and a view though as free speech is part of democracy as well as some seem to have forgotten that on here...;)
Except that an opinion that says the vote was wrong so we'll have another one, and then the best of three, is not being democratic!

1andrew1 10-07-2017 19:12
Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35907178)
Except that an opinion that says the vote was wrong so we'll have another one, and then the best of three, is not being democratic!
Agreed if anyone had actually said that. They haven't.


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