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Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
Looking at recent reports, it’s looking very likely Russia will take Mariupol. I see this possibly ending ( permanently or temporarily) by May 9th.
Putin now has linked Crimea and the Separatist Eastern Ukraine Regions. He can confidently go back to mother Russia, claiming he has protected the Russian separatists from the Ukrainian Nazis in time for when Russia commemorates beating the Nazis in 1945. This is his out, of course Ukraine would have to agree to release that territory. |
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I suggest you watch this entire interview by 60 mins to give you a better assessment of the man and the Ukrainian people. It's only 27mins in length but will make you more awareof what Putin is up against. What happens next depends very much on the US & NATO. |
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Couple of updates from Kyiv Independent:
Russia threatens to strike at Ukraine's command centers in Kyiv. The Russian Defense Ministry said that it had “so far refrained” from doing so. Starting on Feb. 24, Russia systematically launched missiles against both Ukraine’s civilian and military infrastructure. — US announces new $800 million worth of military assistance to Ukraine. The latest aid includes artillery systems, artillery rounds, armored personnel carriers, and helicopters. — Czech embassy resumes work in Kyiv. “Czechia will always stand with Ukraine,” Czech Foreign Ministry wrote on Twitter on April 13. — Zelensky denies having received a request from Steinmeier to visit Ukraine. German newspaper Bild earlier reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky was against German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s visit because of his close ties to Russia in the past. — Le Pen supports rapprochement between NATO, Russia. “When the war between Russia and Ukraine will be over and settled by a peace treaty, I’ll support the implementation of a strategic development between NATO and Russia,” French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen said. |
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Ukrainian Forces BROKE THROUGH Russians to Join 'Azov Regiment' in Mariupol.
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Other unconfirmed news: The Ukrainian military has hit the Russian cruiser Moskva with Neptune missiles, causing serious damage to the warship. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...-be-skeptical/ |
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Cometh the hour, cometh the man ... .. and then I compare him to our leader, ... jeez .. |
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BREAKING: Russian Cruise Warship, Moskva reportedly on FIRE in Black Sea, is said to be seriously damaged - Russian crew has abandoned ship - Ukrainian News Agency.
Russian Ministry of Defence is claiming Ammunition exploding is reason for the damage. |
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Le Pen’s comments on ‘rapprochement’ with Russia is concerning. Especially with her previous positive comments about Putin and her policy of pulling France out of NATO military resources. She’s also against sending weapons: https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...9da900d99b22da
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This is massive for Ukraine - they have shown they can cripple the Russian navy from a distance. It makes an amphibious assault on the south west coast around Odessa all but impossible. |
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Modern navy, the funny thing is the Ukranians did it with their own designed and made missiles, it was all their own work and Russia can't blame anyone else |
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BREAKING: Russia threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltic if Sweden, Finland join NATO.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said that Moscow would have to strengthen its defenses in the region and "there can be no more talk" of nuclear-free Baltics. - Kyiv Independent. ---------- Post added at 12:46 ---------- Previous post was at 12:29 ---------- EU closes loophole allowing arms sales to Russia. According to the EU Commission data, EU countries sold Russia weapons and ammunition worth 39 million euros in 2021. Reuters reports that France and Germany were among the largest exporters. - Kyiv Independent |
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Impresive list of arms and equipment being sent by USA. I wonder how long it will take to get it all there.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1649943212 Ukraine could potentially wipe out the Russian Black Sea fleet with just 20 missiles. Either that of rorce them to retreat to the Southern part out of harms way. Quote:
https://realcontextnews.com/ukraine-...ship-missiles/ |
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Who would ever have thought that there would ever be such a massive field trial of US, UK and other assorted NATO military equipment directly against Russian kit. Or that so much Russian kit would get captured more or less intact and available for NATO experts to dismantle and study. This war has been a strategic catastrophe for Russia in so many ways.
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Meanwhille. New Ukrainian stamp.:D:D https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1649946340 |
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Brilliant....:D:D |
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https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/statu...83325611036677 ---------- Post added at 19:38 ---------- Previous post was at 18:55 ---------- Quote:
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Not much of a flagship if it can't cope with a few waves... |
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There’s no doubt the Ukrainians hit that ship with something. Accidental fires that spread uncontrolled as far as the magazine simply don’t happen. Damage control procedures would not allow it. Only a catastrophic situation could have got so out of control. |
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Good news comrades, the fire onboard the Moskva has been extinguished...
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Rumours are that Putin has ordered a glass bottomed boat for his next Black Sea fleet inspection. :D
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'broken arrow'
Russia's 'broken arrow': Fears that nuclear missiles sank with Putin's flagship Moskva amid claims that HUNDREDS of the 510 crew have drowned after being 'hit by Ukrainian missile' Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet, has been confirmed to have sunk near port of Sevastopol Experts and analysts are now warning that the warship may have been carrying two nuclear warheads They are calling for an urgent probe into 'broken arrow' incident - military slang for an accident with nukes Meanwhile questions remain over the fate of Moskva's 510-strong crew, most of whom are unaccounted for https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...pons-sank.html |
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That's fish off the menu then :(
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But Russia's winning isn't it?
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According to the Latavian Minister for Defece nukes are already there. Quote:
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Couple of updates from Kyiv Independent:
BREAKING: Washington Post: Russia warns U.S to stop arming Ukraine. The Washington Post reported that it had received a copy of a diplomatic note sent by Russia. In the note, Russia claimed that US & NATO shipments of weapons to Ukraine could bring “unpredictable consequences.” -- Russian forces shell residential area in Mykolaiv. Russian shelling of a residential neighborhood in Mykolaiv, a regional capital in southern Ukraine, injured multiple civilians on April 15, according to Hanna Zamazieieva, the head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Council. -- Up to 50,000 residents return to Kyiv every day, according to local official Mykola Povoroznyk. Earlier, mayor Vitali Klitschko said that it was too early to return as there is still a threat of Russian strikes, while the demining of territories surrounding Kyiv is ongoing. -- Media: North Macedonia expells 6 Russian diplomats. The Foreign Ministry of North Macedonia has declared 6 more Russian diplomats persona non grata for violating diplomatic norms, RFE/RL’s Balkan Service reported. The country has already expelled 5 Russian diplomats in March. -- Russia threatens Sweden, Finland with 'consequences' of joining NATO. The ministry's Maria Zakharova said the two countries will then become a new "frontier” in Russia’s confrontation with NATO and there'll be “negative consequences for peace and stability in northern Europe." -- Moody's: Russia's failure to pay debts in dollars by May 4 will mean default. Russia reportedly made payments on two bonds in rubles on April 4. Moody’s issued a statement saying that a change in payment terms may be considered a default if not cured within a month. -- UN: Nearly 5 million Ukrainians have fled the country in 50 days of war. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, over 7.1 million people have been internally displaced. |
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A very good breakdown of Russia's supply problems
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Strategic studies academics were pointing out the tyre issues in some of the earliest photos from Ukraine, within a week or 10 days of the war beginning. These pieces of evidence, and others like them, are the reason some of these people have been so ahead of the game in predicting Russia’s difficulties. Unsurprisingly, these are the same people who are saying that no matter how much Russia may want to take Dneipro or encircle the Ukrainian army in Donbas, it simply doesn’t have enough men or equipment available to do so. Yet at the moment, the BBC and others continue to publish maps with bold red arrows implying that the war is still all Russian movement and progress. If you use Twatter at all (and I didn’t, prior to this), then follow Phillips P O’Brien, Dr Mike Martin and Shashank Joshi for starters. |
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Don't forget he admits he got things wrong in the beginning just as the majority of stategists did. Russia was only a paper tiger but regrded as something else by the west. Meanwhile. BBC: FSB asks Russian government for additional funding to bury Russian troops. The FSB asked the Russian government to increase by 17% the “funding for military burials and tombstones,” BBC reported. Ukraine says 20,000 Russian troops have been killed in Ukraine since Feb. 24. |
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BREAKING: The U.S rebuffs Russia's earlier warnings saying, 'Nothing will dissuade' us from supporting Ukraine.
The Washington Post reported that it had a copy of a diplomatic note sent by Russia to U.S. claiming that U.S., NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons to Ukraine could bring “unpredictable consequences.” - Kyiv Independent. |
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have brought about ‘unpredictable consequences’
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Does anybody think that now's the time for NATO or a NATO country to enter Ukraine upon Zelensky's invitation, then immediately imposing a no-fly zone on the non-Russian occupied areas?
This move would call Putin's bluff; so long as Putin can maintain the bluff, Ukraine will be systematically destroyed. Can we really stand by and watch? As for Germany, not enough noise is being made in the West about that; Zelensky would think all Europe wants is for this to go away. |
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The Ukarainians so far have shown to be very successful in their war against Russia so I think the best thing would be is to step up the aid, give them the heavier weopons they need and the aircraft to counter the Russian airforce. They have been quite clear on what they need so why not supply them. Would it be worse than a direct NATO confrontaion? |
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There’s no need - Ukraine are kicking their ass, with the arms/logistics/AWACs support we are already providing. NATO getting directly involved (unless Putin invades a NATO member) would be counterproductive. |
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Also … they’re expensive, n limited supply and given the sanctions imposed on Russian industry, quite possibly irreplaceable. It’s ultimately self-defeating because when they really need them, they won’t have them, and in the meantime they are only stiffening Ukrainian resolve to resist. |
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I don't know the answer, but I fear that Putin will eventually lose patience as he's clearly not retreated, despite all the setbacks. I can see this carrying on in much the same way as it has been until the winter and then something drastic being done by either side. Is there any chance that Russia will actually run out of weapons? Who is willing to sell to them? I don't think that lack of money due to the sanctions will be an issue whilst they are receiving revenue from the West for gas etc. Putin would happily let Russian people starve and use this money for weapons if anyone is willing to sell them to him. |
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Putin wants the "Special Operation" to be over by 9th May, they withdrew in the north as Kviv was unattainable. But Putin wants something to sell to the Russians as a success hence the concentration on the Donbas and east Ukraine. If he could get a positive result there by the date then he could appear to offer a true (if not acceptable) peace deal and declare a victory without losing face. The Ukrainans have a different outlook, they have embarked on 2 offensives to cut logistic supply lines to 22 TBG's to just one road from at least 3. That is not enough to be able to supply those TBG's as an effective fighting force, they also claim to have destroyed one TBG by two thirds yesterday. Ukraine has every chance of winning this war, All it takes is NATO suppyling the weapons they need. If that includes tanks and aircraft then so be it. Give them what they need. |
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I’m pretty sure Ukraine is getting what it needs - at least as much as has been publicly promised, and faster than most people realise. It’s also important not to get overawed by the breathless reporting coming out of eastern Ukraine this evening about the Russian offensive having begun. As you say, the Russian army is operating to a purely political objective at present (the artificial 9 May deadline) rather than a realistic, achievable military one. It just doesn’t have the manpower, the equipment or the supplies to sustain what it is attempting. Plus Ukraine is busily denying it access to what it does have by choking its supply lines, just as it did around Kyiv. This will be no cake walk for the Ukrainian forces but Russia didn’t get things all its own way when it started this, and it’s starting this next phase in a far worse state than before. |
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Don't forget Ukraine has been fighting a war in the Donbas area since 2014 without assistance (arms etc) from NATO, now that they have that assistance it may turn out differently. The next couple of days will tell. |
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More good news for Ukraine.
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---------- Post added at 19:01 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ---------- More good news for Ukraine., about time NATO supplied more. Quote:
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Continuing the good-news-on-weapons theme. More operational Ukranian aircraft than there were two weeks ago. How large the "parts" that Ukraine received, remain to be seen. ;)
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I was reading last night that weapons supply to Ukraine is still way short of the level of assistance the USSR rendered to North Vietnam. Apparently, sometimes training the Vietnamese how to fire missiles at American aircraft involved Soviet personnel actually firing the missiles. |
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BREAKING: Ukraine confirms receiving spare parts, components of aircraft from allies, but not new planes.
Despite Pentagon’s earlier claim that Ukraine received new planes as well as spare parts, Ukraine’s Armed Forces said that the country “did not receive new aircraft from partners.” - Kyiv Independent |
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BREAKING: Biden announces additional $800 million military aid to Ukraine.
The U.S. president said on April 21 that it sent a message to Putin: "He will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine." Biden also announced a ban for Russian ships to enter U.S. ports. - Kyiv Independent |
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Red button time getting closer . .
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I certainly hope not that would end badly for all of us. |
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In other news ....
Cable Forum was the subject of a 9 hour attack from a Russian IP last night. :erm: No damage done, as best I can tell. |
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And we managed to survive them… |
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NEW: U.S. believes that 90 American-provided howitzers heading to Ukraine will have a "significant" impact on Ukrainian firepower: senior U.S. defense official - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy
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Washington Post: Pentagon says Ukraine has more tanks on the ground than Russia.
Ukrainian forces have more tanks in Ukraine than Russians, “and they certainly have the purview to use them,” said an undisclosed senior U.S. defense official quoted by the Washington Post. - Kyiv Independent ---------- Post added at 22:32 ---------- Previous post was at 20:54 ---------- BREAKING: DATA: Russian combat power remaining in Ukraine (troops, weapons and military equipment), per a senior U.S. defense official Feb 24 - 100 percent March 11 - 90 percent March 15 - 90 percent March 22 - 89 percent April 12 - 80 percent April 19 - 75 percent - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy. ---------- Post added at 22:44 ---------- Previous post was at 22:32 ---------- Further Data: TOTAL Russian missile launches into Ukraine since the start of war: senior U.S. defense official Mar 11 - 810 Mar 14 - 900 Mar 16 - 980 Mar 17 - 1,000 Mar 21 - 1,100 Mar 28 - 1,370 Mar 31 - 1,400 Apr 11 - 1,500 Apr 12 - 1,540 Apr 13 - 1,550 Apr 18 - 1,660 Apr 19 - 1,670 - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy |
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The new weapons especially the 155 mm artillery Ukraine is to recieve could prove to be the turning point in this war. |
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Just a huge number of page loads, most attempting SQL injection. You can see from the graph, our normal guest level is around 400 - 600. Two nights ago, it hit almost 10,000, last night, over 16,000 at one point. |
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Thanks Daddy. It does make sense, wish I knew more about this type of thing.
Wouldn't want it to show up on my search history though some one may think I was a danger to the internet. "The Silver Surfing Granny" up to mischief ....... yet again. :D :D :D |
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St Petersburg is 2 hours ahead of us, as is Moscow (3 hours when it’s GMT).
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Culture Ministry: Russia commited 242 crimes against Ukraine’s cultural heritage.
The ministry said it had recorded Russian war crimes against Ukraine’s cultural heritage in 11 out of the country’s 24 oblasts. Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kyiv oblasts have suffered the most. - Kyiv Independent |
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Russia's war already hit global grain trade.
According to Taras Vysotsky, first deputy minister of agriculture, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to higher prices and reduced access to food in countries importing grain from Ukraine and Russia. - Kyiv Independent ---------- Post added at 15:20 ---------- Previous post was at 13:38 ---------- Finland reduces electricity imports from Russia. According to national power grid operator Fingrid, this is done to prevent possible attempts by Russia to influence Finland during the NATO membership application process. - Kyiv Independent ---------- Post added at 15:39 ---------- Previous post was at 15:20 ---------- BREAKING: Military intelligence: 2 Russian generals killed near Kherson. According to Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate, the military hit a Russian command post near occupied regional capital Kherson, allegedly killing two Russian generals and wounding one. - Kyiv Independent |
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