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Pierre 12-04-2022 21:19

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Looking at recent reports, it’s looking very likely Russia will take Mariupol. I see this possibly ending ( permanently or temporarily) by May 9th.

Putin now has linked Crimea and the Separatist Eastern Ukraine Regions. He can confidently go back to mother Russia, claiming he has protected the Russian separatists from the Ukrainian Nazis in time for when Russia commemorates beating the Nazis in 1945.

This is his out, of course Ukraine would have to agree to release that territory.

pip08456 13-04-2022 00:48

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36118949)
Looking at recent reports, it’s looking very likely Russia will take Mariupol. I see this possibly ending ( permanently or temporarily) by May 9th.

Putin now has linked Crimea and the Separatist Eastern Ukraine Regions. He can confidently go back to mother Russia, claiming he has protected the Russian separatists from the Ukrainian Nazis in time for when Russia commemorates beating the Nazis in 1945.

This is his out, of course Ukraine would have to agree to release that territory.

Putin would like for it to end by May 9th for obvious reasons, not least he needs the troops for the May 9th (WWII victory) parade in Moscow. I doubt Ukraine will comply with Putin's wish nor permanenly agreeing to give up the Donbas or Crimea areas.

I suggest you watch this entire interview by 60 mins to give you a better assessment of the man and the Ukrainian people. It's only 27mins in length but will make you more awareof what Putin is up against. What happens next depends very much on the US & NATO.


Mick 13-04-2022 21:49

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Couple of updates from Kyiv Independent:

Russia threatens to strike at Ukraine's command centers in Kyiv.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that it had “so far refrained” from doing so.

Starting on Feb. 24, Russia systematically launched missiles against both Ukraine’s civilian and military infrastructure.



US announces new $800 million worth of military assistance to Ukraine.

The latest aid includes artillery systems, artillery rounds, armored personnel carriers, and helicopters.



Czech embassy resumes work in Kyiv.

“Czechia will always stand with Ukraine,” Czech Foreign Ministry wrote on Twitter on April 13.



Zelensky denies having received a request from Steinmeier to visit Ukraine.

German newspaper Bild earlier reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky was against German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s visit because of his close ties to Russia in the past.



Le Pen supports rapprochement between NATO, Russia.

“When the war between Russia and Ukraine will be over and settled by a peace treaty, I’ll support the implementation of a strategic development between NATO and Russia,” French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen said.

pip08456 13-04-2022 22:17

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Ukrainian Forces BROKE THROUGH Russians to Join 'Azov Regiment' in Mariupol.


Chris 13-04-2022 22:24

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119104)
Ukrainian Forces BROKE THROUGH Russians to Join 'Azov Regiment' in Mariupol.


Is this from a reputable news outlet? TBH there’s so much bolleaux on YouTube I’m reluctant to waste my time on war report videos from sources I’m not familiar with.

pip08456 13-04-2022 22:58

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119105)
Is this from a reputable news outlet? TBH there’s so much bolleaux on YouTube I’m reluctant to waste my time on war report videos from sources I’m not familiar with.

Quote:

Units of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, defending Mariupol besieged by the Russian occupiers, broke through to join forces with the Azov Regiment.

This was announced by Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych.

“In Mariupol, units of the 36th Marine Brigade broke through to join the Azov Regiment, which professionally provided the event, as a result of a difficult and very risky maneuver,” Arestovich said.

He clarified that the results of the breakthrough are that Azov received significant reinforcements, the 36th Brigade avoided defeat by units and received additional serious opportunities, “actually got a second chance”, the defenders of the city, now together, have seriously strengthened their defense.
https://hindustannewshub.com/russia-...se-arestovich/

Other unconfirmed news: The Ukrainian military has hit the Russian cruiser Moskva with Neptune missiles, causing serious damage to the warship.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...-be-skeptical/

ianch99 13-04-2022 23:48

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36118984)
Putin would like for it to end by May 9th for obvious reasons, not least he needs the troops for the May 9th (WWII victory) parade in Moscow. I doubt Ukraine will comply with Putin's wish nor permanenly agreeing to give up the Donbas or Crimea areas.

I suggest you watch this entire interview by 60 mins to give you a better assessment of the man and the Ukrainian people. It's only 27mins in length but will make you more awareof what Putin is up against. What happens next depends very much on the US & NATO.


Thanks for this. I watched this video and and can only admire the man and what he has, almost singlehandedly, done in bringing the West on board.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man ...

.. and then I compare him to our leader, ... jeez ..

1andrew1 14-04-2022 00:44

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36118984)
Putin would like for it to end by May 9th for obvious reasons, not least he needs the troops for the May 9th (WWII victory) parade in Moscow. I doubt Ukraine will comply with Putin's wish nor permanenly agreeing to give up the Donbas or Crimea areas.

I suggest you watch this entire interview by 60 mins to give you a better assessment of the man and the Ukrainian people. It's only 27mins in length but will make you more awareof what Putin is up against. What happens next depends very much on the US & NATO.


Gripping viewing, thanks for sharing, what a leader. Interesting that he had the green military clothing to hand as he previously regularly visited the troop positions on the Russian border.

Mick 14-04-2022 01:04

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: Russian Cruise Warship, Moskva reportedly on FIRE in Black Sea, is said to be seriously damaged - Russian crew has abandoned ship - Ukrainian News Agency.

Russian Ministry of Defence is claiming Ammunition exploding is reason for the damage.

Damien 14-04-2022 07:39

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Le Pen’s comments on ‘rapprochement’ with Russia is concerning. Especially with her previous positive comments about Putin and her policy of pulling France out of NATO military resources. She’s also against sending weapons: https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...9da900d99b22da

Chris 14-04-2022 09:53

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36119122)
BREAKING: Russian Cruise Warship, Moskva reportedly on FIRE in Black Sea, is said to be seriously damaged - Russian crew has abandoned ship - Ukrainian News Agency.

Russian Ministry of Defence is claiming Ammunition exploding is reason for the damage.

Given earlier, repeated claims from the Ukrainian government that they did it, including details of which weapons system they used, I think an accident in the ammunition magazine is about as likely as the ammunition store in Belgorod also suffering an “accident” the other week.

This is massive for Ukraine - they have shown they can cripple the Russian navy from a distance. It makes an amphibious assault on the south west coast around Odessa all but impossible.

1andrew1 14-04-2022 09:58

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36119123)
Le Pen’s comments on ‘rapprochement’ with Russia is concerning. Especially with her previous positive comments about Putin and her policy of pulling France out of NATO military resources. She’s also against sending weapons: https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...9da900d99b22da

Hope she doesn't get elected.

Sephiroth 14-04-2022 10:45

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36119128)
Hope she doesn't get elected.

Hope she does. Nothing like causing serious turmoil in the EU plus that swine Macron is ousted. Doubt that my wish will be granted, though.

1andrew1 14-04-2022 11:07

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119135)
Hope she does. Nothing like causing serious turmoil in the EU plus that swine Macron is ousted. Doubt that my wish will be granted, though.

I'm no fan of Macron (especially around his misinformation on the OAZ vaccine) but he's more supportive of Ukraine and NATO than her.

Sephiroth 14-04-2022 11:17

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36119138)
I'm no fan of Macron (especially around his misinformation on the OAZ vaccine) but he's more supportive of Ukraine and NATO than her.

Possibly true - but then France hasn't owned up to how much military assistance they've provided to Ukraine. So one less won't matter and the prize of EU turmoil is irresistible.

TheDaddy 14-04-2022 11:30

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119127)
Given earlier, repeated claims from the Ukrainian government that they did it, including details of which weapons system they used, I think an accident in the ammunition magazine is about as likely as the ammunition store in Belgorod also suffering an “accident” the other week.

This is massive for Ukraine - they have shown they can cripple the Russian navy from a distance. It makes an amphibious assault on the south west coast around Odessa all but impossible.

The Russian flagship was 46 years old :shocked:

Modern navy, the funny thing is the Ukranians did it with their own designed and made missiles, it was all their own work and Russia can't blame anyone else

Damien 14-04-2022 11:50

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119139)
Possibly true - but then France hasn't owned up to how much military assistance they've provided to Ukraine. So one less won't matter and the prize of EU turmoil is irresistible.

Le Pen is much more hostile to NATO than the EU now. Pulling out of the Military Command structure would seriously reduce NATO resources and she is clearly pretty pro-Russia as well. She represents a threat to European Security IMO.

Mick 14-04-2022 12:46

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: Russia threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltic if Sweden, Finland join NATO.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said that Moscow would have to strengthen its defenses in the region and "there can be no more talk" of nuclear-free Baltics. - Kyiv Independent.

---------- Post added at 12:46 ---------- Previous post was at 12:29 ----------

EU closes loophole allowing arms sales to Russia.

According to the EU Commission data, EU countries sold Russia weapons and ammunition worth 39 million euros in 2021.

Reuters reports that France and Germany were among the largest exporters. - Kyiv Independent

Mick 14-04-2022 12:49

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1649936933

pip08456 14-04-2022 12:58

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36119140)
The Russian flagship was 46 years old :shocked:

Modern navy, the funny thing is the Ukranians did it with their own designed and made missiles, it was all their own work and Russia can't blame anyone else

The Moskva is the same Russian warship that was previously instructed to “go **** itself” by the defenders of Snake Island.:D

papa smurf 14-04-2022 14:22

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119149)
The Moskva is the same Russian warship that was previously instructed to “go **** itself” by the defenders of Snake Island.:D

It's definitely ****** now;)

pip08456 14-04-2022 14:35

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
Impresive list of arms and equipment being sent by USA. I wonder how long it will take to get it all there.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1649943212

Ukraine could potentially wipe out the Russian Black Sea fleet with just 20 missiles. Either that of rorce them to retreat to the Southern part out of harms way.

Quote:

Russia has cannibalized its other three fleets (Northern Fleet, Baltic Fleet, and Pacific Fleet) and its one flotilla (the Caspian Flotilla) to reinforce the Black Sea Fleet and support its Ukraine effort, and, with Turkey closing the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to the Mediterranean in early March to incoming military vessels under the 1936 Montreux Convention, that Caspian Flotilla is the only possible source of reinforcements to what is in the Black Sea, coming in though canal from the Caspian Sea, as other possible reinforcements coming in from the Mediterranean are now blocked.

As far as sizable surface ships in the Black Sea, by mid-March there were only twenty-one, according to a “senior defense official”: just twelve naval-combat-focused ships along with nine amphibious assault ships, accompanied by numerous far smaller patrol and support boats and, of course, submarines that are harder to track.
The full article is worth reading too. (written ot 10/4}.

https://realcontextnews.com/ukraine-...ship-missiles/

Chris 14-04-2022 14:40

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Who would ever have thought that there would ever be such a massive field trial of US, UK and other assorted NATO military equipment directly against Russian kit. Or that so much Russian kit would get captured more or less intact and available for NATO experts to dismantle and study. This war has been a strategic catastrophe for Russia in so many ways.

1andrew1 14-04-2022 14:51

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119154)
Impresive list of arms and equipment being sent by USA. I wonder how long it will take to get it all there.

I've read sometimes as little as 48 hours!

pip08456 14-04-2022 15:26

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119155)
Who would ever have thought that there would ever be such a massive field trial of US, UK and other assorted NATO military equipment directly against Russian kit. Or that so much Russian kit would get captured more or less intact and available for NATO experts to dismantle and study. This war has been a strategic catastrophe for Russia in so many ways.

You can say that again.

Meanwhille. New Ukrainian stamp.:D:D

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1649946340

pip08456 14-04-2022 15:27

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36119156)
I've read sometimes as little as 48 hours!

That's quick and needs to be.

Mad Max 14-04-2022 17:17

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119159)
You can say that again.

Meanwhille. New Ukrainian stamp.:D:D

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1649946340


Brilliant....:D:D

pip08456 14-04-2022 19:38

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Like it or not, Crimea’s future is forever linked with Russia. For us, this issue is closed, finally and irrevocably. No sanctions by the US and its satellites, who imagine themselves masters of the world, will change our approach
Source, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/statu...83325611036677

---------- Post added at 19:38 ---------- Previous post was at 18:55 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36119156)
I've read sometimes as little as 48 hours!

I've just found this Press breifing by a Senior Defence Official in the US.

Quote:

Q: This is just like of the $800 million, what's in country, or what's been delivered or whatever. I thought that it was --

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah, so we still estimate the closure of presidential drawdown to be by the middle of this month. Yesterday -- I'm trying to be careful here of what I say, but yesterday, two U.S. flights arrived in the region with everything from small-arms ammunition, machine guns, body armor, grenades and other explosives. In the next 24 hours, we expect another flight from the United States to arrive with similar things in it. But again, we've been moving right along on this. I don't have -- hang on just a second. I'm looking for something a little bit more specific here. So of the just-slightly-more-than 20 flights that we expected to be required to close out that $800 million, we are at 19, so we're very close to finishing it out, like I said. We believe we'll be done by the middle of the month, and that should close it out.

We're also working on the next one, which you know is $100 million for the Javelins, and we expected that that, that's the latest drawdown- we call that ‘PDA 5,’ with the Javelins should be finished by -- also by mid-April, so we're moving on both of them, and we're almost done with the $800 million.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcr...april-12-2022/

1andrew1 14-04-2022 20:19

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119159)
You can say that again.

Meanwhille. New Ukrainian stamp.:D:D

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1649946340

Buy them here https://postcardsua.com/collections/stamps

pip08456 14-04-2022 21:05

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36119182)

Thanks for the link Andrew.

Chris 14-04-2022 21:19

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Sunk.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61114843

Mr K 14-04-2022 21:23

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119189)

'Stormy seas caused it to sink' apparently... lol

Not much of a flagship if it can't cope with a few waves...

Pierre 14-04-2022 21:27

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119189)

Probably a bit too early to have been done by repurposed U.K. Harpoons…..but who knows?

Chris 14-04-2022 21:41

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36119191)
Probably a bit too early to have been done by repurposed U.K. Harpoons…..but who knows?

The Neptune cruise missile is a Ukrainian innovation - part of their navy’s response to the loss of Crimea, along with most of its warships, in 2014.

There’s no doubt the Ukrainians hit that ship with something. Accidental fires that spread uncontrolled as far as the magazine simply don’t happen. Damage control procedures would not allow it. Only a catastrophic situation could have got so out of control.

pip08456 14-04-2022 22:08

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119189)

Don't worry, Ukrainian farmers are on their way to recover it.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1649970417

pip08456 14-04-2022 22:34

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36119182)

Sold out for now. A good thing IMHO.

Hugh 15-04-2022 00:07

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Good news comrades, the fire onboard the Moskva has been extinguished...

heero_yuy 15-04-2022 08:06

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Rumours are that Putin has ordered a glass bottomed boat for his next Black Sea fleet inspection. :D

papa smurf 15-04-2022 09:50

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
'broken arrow'

Russia's 'broken arrow': Fears that nuclear missiles sank with Putin's flagship Moskva amid claims that HUNDREDS of the 510 crew have drowned after being 'hit by Ukrainian missile'
Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet, has been confirmed to have sunk near port of Sevastopol
Experts and analysts are now warning that the warship may have been carrying two nuclear warheads
They are calling for an urgent probe into 'broken arrow' incident - military slang for an accident with nukes
Meanwhile questions remain over the fate of Moskva's 510-strong crew, most of whom are unaccounted for

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...pons-sank.html

Carth 15-04-2022 11:16

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
That's fish off the menu then :(

pip08456 15-04-2022 14:58

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
But Russia's winning isn't it?

Quote:

"Overall, the following targets have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation: 132 aircraft, 105 helicopters, 245 surface-to-air missile systems, 456 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,213 tanks and other combat armored vehicles, 249 multiple launch rocket systems, 966 field artillery guns and mortars and 2,110 special military motor vehicles," the spokesman said.

The Russian troops eliminated seven Ukrainian military facilities by airborne precision missiles overnight, including a Tochka-U missile launcher, Konashenkov said.
https://tass.com/defense/1438181?utm...m_social_share

---------- Post added at 14:53 ---------- Previous post was at 14:18 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36119145)
BREAKING: Russia threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltic if Sweden, Finland join NATO.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said that Moscow would have to strengthen its defenses in the region and "there can be no more talk" of nuclear-free Baltics. - Kyiv Independent.[COLOR="Silver"]



According to the Latavian Minister for Defece nukes are already there.

Quote:

However, the Lithuanian defence minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, claimed on Thursday that Russia already had nuclear weapons stored in its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Lithuania and Poland. That claim has not been independently verified, but the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) reported in 2018 that nuclear weapon storage bunkers in Kaliningrad had been upgraded.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...land-join-nato

Mick 15-04-2022 17:11

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Couple of updates from Kyiv Independent:

BREAKING: Washington Post: Russia warns U.S to stop arming Ukraine.

The Washington Post reported that it had received a copy of a diplomatic note sent by Russia. In the note, Russia claimed that US & NATO shipments of weapons to Ukraine could bring “unpredictable consequences.”

--

Russian forces shell residential area in Mykolaiv.

Russian shelling of a residential neighborhood in Mykolaiv, a regional capital in southern Ukraine, injured multiple civilians on April 15, according to Hanna Zamazieieva, the head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Council.

--

Up to 50,000 residents return to Kyiv every day, according to local official Mykola Povoroznyk.

Earlier, mayor Vitali Klitschko said that it was too early to return as there is still a threat of Russian strikes, while the demining of territories surrounding Kyiv is ongoing.

--

Media: North Macedonia expells 6 Russian diplomats.

The Foreign Ministry of North Macedonia has declared 6 more Russian diplomats persona non grata for violating diplomatic norms, RFE/RL’s Balkan Service reported. The country has already expelled 5 Russian diplomats in March.

--

Russia threatens Sweden, Finland with 'consequences' of joining NATO.

The ministry's Maria Zakharova said the two countries will then become a new "frontier” in Russia’s confrontation with NATO and there'll be “negative consequences for peace and stability in northern Europe."

--

Moody's: Russia's failure to pay debts in dollars by May 4 will mean default.

Russia reportedly made payments on two bonds in rubles on April 4. Moody’s issued a statement saying that a change in payment terms may be considered a default if not cured within a month.

--

UN: Nearly 5 million Ukrainians have fled the country in 50 days of war.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, over 7.1 million people have been internally displaced.

pip08456 15-04-2022 17:12

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
A very good breakdown of Russia's supply problems

Quote:

Canary in the coal mine
Telenko describes one recent photo of tire damage on a multimillion-dollar mobile missile truck, a Pantsir S1, as the canary in the coal mine for Russia's logistical efforts.
As such an expensive piece of equipment, he would have expected its maintenance to be first-rate. Yet its tires were crumbling just a few weeks into the war -- what Telenko refers to as "a failure mode."
If trucks are not moved frequently the rubber in their tires becomes brittle and the tire walls vulnerable to cracks and tears. Telenko says the problem is common when tires are run with low inflation to cope with the sort of muddy conditions that Russian forces are facing in the Ukrainian spring.
For Telenko, who for more than a decade specialized in maintenance problems in the US military's truck fleet, the condition of the Pantsir S1 is a revealing mistake.
"If you're not doing (preventive maintenance) for something so important, then it's very clear the entire truck fleet was treated similarly," he says.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/14/e...-ml/index.html

Chris 15-04-2022 17:22

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119225)
A very good breakdown of Russia's supply problems



https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/14/e...-ml/index.html

This is very true, however the story’s appearance in the mainstream media 50 days in to the war really underscores how reluctant journalists have been to listen to anyone other than the same experts who all predicted the war would end in capitulation after 3 days.

Strategic studies academics were pointing out the tyre issues in some of the earliest photos from Ukraine, within a week or 10 days of the war beginning. These pieces of evidence, and others like them, are the reason some of these people have been so ahead of the game in predicting Russia’s difficulties. Unsurprisingly, these are the same people who are saying that no matter how much Russia may want to take Dneipro or encircle the Ukrainian army in Donbas, it simply doesn’t have enough men or equipment available to do so. Yet at the moment, the BBC and others continue to publish maps with bold red arrows implying that the war is still all Russian movement and progress.

If you use Twatter at all (and I didn’t, prior to this), then follow Phillips P O’Brien, Dr Mike Martin and Shashank Joshi for starters.

pip08456 15-04-2022 17:47

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119226)
This is very true, however the story’s appearance in the mainstream media 50 days in to the war really underscores how reluctant journalists have been to listen to anyone other than the same experts who all predicted the war would end in capitulation after 3 days.

Strategic studies academics were pointing out the tyre issues in some of the earliest photos from Ukraine, within a week or 10 days of the war beginning. These pieces of evidence, and others like them, are the reason some of these people have been so ahead of the game in predicting Russia’s difficulties. Unsurprisingly, these are the same people who are saying that no matter how much Russia may want to take Dneipro or encircle the Ukrainian army in Donbas, it simply doesn’t have enough men or equipment available to do so. Yet at the moment, the BBC and others continue to publish maps with bold red arrows implying that the war is still all Russian movement and progress.

If you use Twatter at all (and I didn’t, prior to this), then follow Phillips P O’Brien, Dr Mike Martin and Shashank Joshi for starters.

@PhillipsPOBrien Is my go to on twitter as he explains strategy etc in an understandable form and links to relevant articles from others such as the above.

Don't forget he admits he got things wrong in the beginning just as the majority of stategists did. Russia was only a paper tiger but regrded as something else by the west.

Meanwhile.

BBC: FSB asks Russian government for additional funding to bury Russian troops.

The FSB asked the Russian government to increase by 17% the “funding for military burials and tombstones,” BBC reported. Ukraine says 20,000 Russian troops have been killed in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Hugh 15-04-2022 18:01

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119226)
This is very true, however the story’s appearance in the mainstream media 50 days in to the war really underscores how reluctant journalists have been to listen to anyone other than the same experts who all predicted the war would end in capitulation after 3 days.

Strategic studies academics were pointing out the tyre issues in some of the earliest photos from Ukraine, within a week or 10 days of the war beginning. These pieces of evidence, and others like them, are the reason some of these people have been so ahead of the game in predicting Russia’s difficulties. Unsurprisingly, these are the same people who are saying that no matter how much Russia may want to take Dneipro or encircle the Ukrainian army in Donbas, it simply doesn’t have enough men or equipment available to do so. Yet at the moment, the BBC and others continue to publish maps with bold red arrows implying that the war is still all Russian movement and progress.

If you use Twatter at all (and I didn’t, prior to this), then follow Phillips P O’Brien, Dr Mike Martin and Shashank Joshi for starters.

This guy posted much the same info on Twitter six weeks ago…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...&postcount=628

Quote:

This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.

For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system. One of the biggest reasons for the repositioning, per TACOM logistic Representatives, was that direct sunlight ages truck tires. The repositioning of Trucks in close parking prevents a lot of this sun rotting and cycling the CTIS keeps the tire sidewalls supple.

When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips.

Now look at the same Pantsir-S1 tire sidewalls after the Ukrainians tried to tow or drive it out of the mud. The right rear tire fell apart because the rips in it were too big for the CTIS to keep aired up. No one exercised that vehicle for 1 year.

There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV's now in Ukraine.

The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season. And there is photographic evidence of this. There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1.

Given the demonstrated levels of corruption in truck maintenance. There is no way in h--l that there are enough tires in the Russian army logistical system.

So their wheeled AFV/truck park is as road bound as Russian Army columns were in the 1st Russo-Finnish War. What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening, the Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV's wide.

When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Finns in 1939 destroying Russian truck columns.

The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there. But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks.

Mick 15-04-2022 19:06

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: The U.S rebuffs Russia's earlier warnings saying, 'Nothing will dissuade' us from supporting Ukraine.

The Washington Post reported that it had a copy of a diplomatic note sent by Russia to U.S. claiming that U.S., NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons to Ukraine could bring “unpredictable consequences.” - Kyiv Independent.

OLD BOY 15-04-2022 19:37

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have brought about ‘unpredictable consequences’

Sephiroth 17-04-2022 19:44

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Does anybody think that now's the time for NATO or a NATO country to enter Ukraine upon Zelensky's invitation, then immediately imposing a no-fly zone on the non-Russian occupied areas?

This move would call Putin's bluff; so long as Putin can maintain the bluff, Ukraine will be systematically destroyed. Can we really stand by and watch?

As for Germany, not enough noise is being made in the West about that; Zelensky would think all Europe wants is for this to go away.


Paul 17-04-2022 19:56

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119308)
Does anybody think that now's the time for NATO or a NATO country to enter Ukraine upon Zelensky's invitation, then immediately imposing a no-fly zone on the non-Russian occupied areas?

Nope.

pip08456 17-04-2022 20:15

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119308)
Does anybody think that now's the time for NATO or a NATO country to enter Ukraine upon Zelensky's invitation, then immediately imposing a no-fly zone on the non-Russian occupied areas?

This move would call Putin's bluff; so long as Putin can maintain the bluff, Ukraine will be systematically destroyed. Can we really stand by and watch?

As for Germany, not enough noise is being made in the West about that; Zelensky would think all Europe wants is for this to go away.


If NATO did that then it would bring NATO into direct confrontation with Russia and would show the Russian people that Putin was right. A dangerous move IMHO, but I am not a military strategist nor have I been in the military.

The Ukarainians so far have shown to be very successful in their war against Russia so I think the best thing would be is to step up the aid, give them the heavier weopons they need and the aircraft to counter the Russian airforce. They have been quite clear on what they need so why not supply them. Would it be worse than a direct NATO confrontaion?

Sephiroth 17-04-2022 20:41

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119313)
If NATO did that then it would bring NATO into direct confrontation with Russia and would show the Russian people that Putin was right. A dangerous move IMHO, but I am not a military strategist nor have I been in the military.

The Ukarainians so far have shown to be very successful in their war against Russia so I think the best thing would be is to step up the aid, give them the heavier weopons they need and the aircraft to counter the Russian airforce. They have been quite clear on what they need so why not supply them. Would it be worse than a direct NATO confrontaion?

Putin might well win in the end. He is bombing Kiev and Lviv using cruise missiles launched from Belarus. Ukraine can't stop that. Surely someone must? It seems to me to be the point at which Putin's bluff needs to be called.

Hugh 17-04-2022 20:44

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119308)
Does anybody think that now's the time for NATO or a NATO country to enter Ukraine upon Zelensky's invitation, then immediately imposing a no-fly zone on the non-Russian occupied areas?

This move would call Putin's bluff; so long as Putin can maintain the bluff, Ukraine will be systematically destroyed. Can we really stand by and watch?

As for Germany, not enough noise is being made in the West about that; Zelensky would think all Europe wants is for this to go away.


Nope - that’s what Putin wants; to use NATO as a justification.

There’s no need - Ukraine are kicking their ass, with the arms/logistics/AWACs support we are already providing.

NATO getting directly involved (unless Putin invades a NATO member) would be counterproductive.

Chris 17-04-2022 20:51

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119317)
Putin might well win in the end. He is bombing Kiev and Lviv using cruise missiles launched from Belarus. Ukraine can't stop that. Surely someone must? It seems to me to be the point at which Putin's bluff needs to be called.

Indiscriminate cruise missile strikes on civilian population centres are a sign of impotence and a lack of strategy. The range and targeting ability of a cruise missile is paid for in reduced explosive yield. Used this way, they are terror weapons with no more military value than the V-1 and V-2 missiles launched at London by Germany towards the end of WW2 - and they will have no more effect on Ukraine’s military effectiveness than Hitler’s super-weapons had on ours. The only militarily effective use of a cruise missile is in taking out high-value targets that stand in the way of an immediate military objective.

Also … they’re expensive, n limited supply and given the sanctions imposed on Russian industry, quite possibly irreplaceable. It’s ultimately self-defeating because when they really need them, they won’t have them, and in the meantime they are only stiffening Ukrainian resolve to resist.

Mick 18-04-2022 11:59

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
2 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1650279549

And latest Map Intel:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1650279729

1andrew1 18-04-2022 12:44

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119320)
Indiscriminate cruise missile strikes on civilian population centres are a sign of impotence and a lack of strategy. The range and targeting ability of a cruise missile is paid for in reduced explosive yield. Used this way, they are terror weapons with no more military value than the V-1 and V-2 missiles launched at London by Germany towards the end of WW2 - and they will have no more effect on Ukraine’s military effectiveness than Hitler’s super-weapons had on ours. The only militarily effective use of a cruise missile is in taking out high-value targets that stand in the way of an immediate military objective.

Also … they’re expensive, n limited supply and given the sanctions imposed on Russian industry, quite possibly irreplaceable. It’s ultimately self-defeating because when they really need them, they won’t have them, and in the meantime they are only stiffening Ukrainian resolve to resist.

Yes, Ukraine continues to execute its logical plan. Russia denies the Moskva was hit by Ukraine but then panics by firing missiles all across Ukraine. More a display of weakness than strength.

RichardCoulter 18-04-2022 20:28

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119308)
Does anybody think that now's the time for NATO or a NATO country to enter Ukraine upon Zelensky's invitation, then immediately imposing a no-fly zone on the non-Russian occupied areas?

This move would call Putin's bluff; so long as Putin can maintain the bluff, Ukraine will be systematically destroyed. Can we really stand by and watch?

As for Germany, not enough noise is being made in the West about that; Zelensky would think all Europe wants is for this to go away.


Whilst I agree with those who say that this would be a bad move, this current state of affairs cannot carry on indefinitely.

I don't know the answer, but I fear that Putin will eventually lose patience as he's clearly not retreated, despite all the setbacks.

I can see this carrying on in much the same way as it has been until the winter and then something drastic being done by either side.

Is there any chance that Russia will actually run out of weapons? Who is willing to sell to them? I don't think that lack of money due to the sanctions will be an issue whilst they are receiving revenue from the West for gas etc.

Putin would happily let Russian people starve and use this money for weapons if anyone is willing to sell them to him.

pip08456 18-04-2022 21:39

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36119410)
Whilst I agree with those who say that this would be a bad move, this current state of affairs cannot carry on indefinitely.

I don't know the answer, but I fear that Putin will eventually lose patience as he's clearly not retreated, despite all the setbacks.

I can see this carrying on in much the same way as it has been until the winter and then something drastic being done by either side.

Is there any chance that Russia will actually run out of weapons? Who is willing to sell to them? I don't think that lack of money due to the sanctions will be an issue whilst they are receiving revenue from the West for gas etc.

Putin would happily let Russian people starve and use this money for weapons if anyone is willing to sell them to him.

Russian tank production has already ceased due to the sanctions and the shortage of parts. Cruise missle stocks are getting low and there doesn't seem to be significant production of replacements possilby due to the sanctions as well.

Putin wants the "Special Operation" to be over by 9th May, they withdrew in the north as Kviv was unattainable. But Putin wants something to sell to the Russians as a success hence the concentration on the Donbas and east Ukraine. If he could get a positive result there by the date then he could appear to offer a true (if not acceptable) peace deal and declare a victory without losing face.

The Ukrainans have a different outlook, they have embarked on 2 offensives to cut logistic supply lines to 22 TBG's to just one road from at least 3. That is not enough to be able to supply those TBG's as an effective fighting force, they also claim to have destroyed one TBG by two thirds yesterday.

Ukraine has every chance of winning this war, All it takes is NATO suppyling the weapons they need. If that includes tanks and aircraft then so be it. Give them what they need.

Chris 18-04-2022 22:24

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119411)
Russian tank production has already ceased due to the sanctions and the shortage of parts. Cruise missle stocks are getting low and there doesn't seem to be significant production of replacements possilby due to the sanctions as well.

Putin wants the "Special Operation" to be over by 9th May, they withdrew in the north as Kviv was unattainable. But Putin wants something to sell to the Russians as a success hence the concentration on the Donbas and east Ukraine. If he could get a positive result there by the date then he could appear to offer a true (if not acceptable) peace deal and declare a victory without losing face.

The Ukrainans have a different outlook, they have embarked on 2 offensives to cut logistic supply lines to 22 TBG's to just one road from at least 3. That is not enough to be able to supply those TBG's as an effective fighting force, they also claim to have destroyed one TBG by two thirds yesterday.

Ukraine has every chance of winning this war, All it takes is NATO suppyling the weapons they need. If that includes tanks and aircraft then so be it. Give them what they need.

BTG (Battalion Tactical Group) ;)

I’m pretty sure Ukraine is getting what it needs - at least as much as has been publicly promised, and faster than most people realise.

It’s also important not to get overawed by the breathless reporting coming out of eastern Ukraine this evening about the Russian offensive having begun. As you say, the Russian army is operating to a purely political objective at present (the artificial 9 May deadline) rather than a realistic, achievable military one. It just doesn’t have the manpower, the equipment or the supplies to sustain what it is attempting. Plus Ukraine is busily denying it access to what it does have by choking its supply lines, just as it did around Kyiv.

This will be no cake walk for the Ukrainian forces but Russia didn’t get things all its own way when it started this, and it’s starting this next phase in a far worse state than before.

pip08456 19-04-2022 00:03

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119414)
BTG (Battalion Tactical Group) ;)

I’m pretty sure Ukraine is getting what it needs - at least as much as has been publicly promised, and faster than most people realise.

It’s also important not to get overawed by the breathless reporting coming out of eastern Ukraine this evening about the Russian offensive having begun. As you say, the Russian army is operating to a purely political objective at present (the artificial 9 May deadline) rather than a realistic, achievable military one. It just doesn’t have the manpower, the equipment or the supplies to sustain what it is attempting. Plus Ukraine is busily denying it access to what it does have by choking its supply lines, just as it did around Kyiv.

This will be no cake walk for the Ukrainian forces but Russia didn’t get things all its own way when it started this, and it’s starting this next phase in a far worse state than before.

I agree entirely with you Chris, It is now reported that 75-79 BTG's are involved in the Russian offensive in the Donbas region yet no weight is being given to the Ukrainian attacks on supply lines. There is no way that number of BTG'S can be supported if their supply line (logistical support) is cut by 66%. That is what the Ukrianians are trying to do, the final supply line will then be subject to possible drone attacks and rendered non-viable. Remains to be seen.

Don't forget Ukraine has been fighting a war in the Donbas area since 2014 without assistance (arms etc) from NATO, now that they have that assistance it may turn out differently. The next couple of days will tell.

pip08456 19-04-2022 19:01

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
More good news for Ukraine.

Quote:

BORIS Johnson will hand Stormer armoured missile launchers to Ukraine to unleash hell on Mad Vlad Putin’s army.

Their 17 Starstreak missiles can blitz low-flying jets and helicopters.

Experts hailed them “the best kit” yet sent by any Western power.

Sources say the MoD showed off the Stormers’ punch to Ukrainians at a display on Salisbury Plain two weeks ago.

The 13-ton, high-tech launchers can be loaded on to C-17 transport planes and flown to the war in days.

They only need a crew of three — a driver, commander and gunner.

And they will allow President Volodymyr Zelensky’s army to speed into positions at 50mph, fire, then get away fast.
https://inews.co.uk/news/stormer-arm...nchers-1582134

---------- Post added at 19:01 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------

More good news for Ukraine., about time NATO supplied more.

Quote:

Netherlands to send heavy weapons, including armored vehicles, to Ukraine.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on April 19 that he had called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and announced the arms supplies “as Russia begins a renewed offensive.”
Kyiv Independent.

1andrew1 20-04-2022 10:00

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Continuing the good-news-on-weapons theme. More operational Ukranian aircraft than there were two weeks ago. How large the "parts" that Ukraine received, remain to be seen. ;)
Quote:

West sends Ukraine fighter jets, heavy weapons as fighting intensifies after Russia shifts focus to Donbas
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...s-weapons-war/

Quote:

Officially
Ukraine did not receive new aircraft from partners!
With the assistance of the US Government, Ukranian Air Force received spare parts and components for the restoration and repair of the fleet of aircraft in the Armed Forces, which will allow to put into service more equipment.
https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1516686129642233859

Chris 20-04-2022 10:07

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36119564)
Continuing the good-news-on-weapons theme. More operational Ukranian aircraft than there were two weeks ago. How large the "parts" that Ukraine received, remain to be seen. ;)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...s-weapons-war/


https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1516686129642233859

It all depends on whether you need a replacement canopy to attach to a MiG, or a replacement MiG to attach to your spare canopy…

I was reading last night that weapons supply to Ukraine is still way short of the level of assistance the USSR rendered to North Vietnam. Apparently, sometimes training the Vietnamese how to fire missiles at American aircraft involved Soviet personnel actually firing the missiles.

Mick 20-04-2022 11:02

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1650448906

Mick 20-04-2022 11:33

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: Ukraine confirms receiving spare parts, components of aircraft from allies, but not new planes.

Despite Pentagon’s earlier claim that Ukraine received new planes as well as spare parts, Ukraine’s Armed Forces said that the country “did not receive new aircraft from partners.” - Kyiv Independent

papa smurf 20-04-2022 11:48

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36119580)
BREAKING: Ukraine confirms receiving spare parts, components of aircraft from allies, but not new planes.

Despite Pentagon’s earlier claim that Ukraine received new planes as well as spare parts, Ukraine’s Armed Forces said that the country “did not receive new aircraft from partners.” - Kyiv Independent

Could that include slightly used ?

Carth 20-04-2022 18:53

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36119581)
Could that include slightly used ?

It's a spanking deal guv, only got 72,466 miles on the clock, new tyres a month ago, panoramic sunroof, satnav & cruise control, a bit thirsty on fuel but hey, a chap like yourself doesn't want to be in the slow lane eh know what I mean eh :D

Mick 21-04-2022 13:26

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1650543986

Mick 21-04-2022 16:50

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: Biden announces additional $800 million military aid to Ukraine.

The U.S. president said on April 21 that it sent a message to Putin: "He will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine."

Biden also announced a ban for Russian ships to enter U.S. ports. - Kyiv Independent

Carth 21-04-2022 17:46

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Red button time getting closer . .

Paul 21-04-2022 18:12

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36119704)
Red button time getting closer . .

It looking alarming like the US want to pick a fight.
I certainly hope not that would end badly for all of us.

Hugh 21-04-2022 18:13

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36119704)
Red button time getting closer . .

Statistically unlikely… ;)

Paul 21-04-2022 18:13

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
In other news ....

Cable Forum was the subject of a 9 hour attack from a Russian IP last night. :erm:

No damage done, as best I can tell.

Carth 21-04-2022 18:21

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36119716)
In other news ....

Cable Forum was the subject of a 9 hour attack from a Russian IP last night. :erm:

No damage done, as best I can tell.

Wasn't me, even though I've been a little 'edgy' with posts today :D

Sephiroth 21-04-2022 18:41

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36119715)
Statistically unlikely… ;)

Isn't Putin the buggeration factor?

Hugh 21-04-2022 18:49

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119725)
Isn't Putin the buggeration factor?

Just as much as Stalin, Krushschev, Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko were, imho.

And we managed to survive them…

Chris 21-04-2022 18:51

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36119716)
In other news ....

Cable Forum was the subject of a 9 hour attack from a Russian IP last night. :erm:

No damage done, as best I can tell.

I guess they're triggered by any Western website discussing their army's human rights abuses in Ukraine. Or the fact that they're utterly useless in any war where the enemy has the means to shoot back.

Sephiroth 21-04-2022 18:51

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36119727)
Just as much as Stalin, Krushscheb, Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko were, imho.

And we managed to survive them…

Ukraine and Putin's threats are the difference.

Mick 21-04-2022 18:54

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
NEW: U.S. believes that 90 American-provided howitzers heading to Ukraine will have a "significant" impact on Ukrainian firepower: senior U.S. defense official - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy

Hugh 21-04-2022 19:12

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36119729)
Ukraine and Putin's threats are the difference.

We’ll agree to differ in that one…

GrimUpNorth 21-04-2022 19:35

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119728)
I guess they're triggered by any Western website discussing their army's human rights abuses in Ukraine. Or the fact that they're utterly useless in any war where the enemy has the means to shoot back.

I think we've learnt the enemy don't need to be able to shoot back for the Russian army to be useless.

Pierre 21-04-2022 19:48

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36119694)
The U.S. president said on April 21 that it sent a message to Putin: "He will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine."

He doesn’t need to, or probably at this stage want to, occupy all of Ukraine.

spiderplant 21-04-2022 19:51

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36119716)
Cable Forum was the subject of a 9 hour attack from a Russian IP last night. :erm:

What sort of attack?

Chris 21-04-2022 20:09

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36119742)
What sort of attack?

One which failed spectacularly, as you might expect

RichardCoulter 21-04-2022 20:37

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36119694)
BREAKING: Biden announces additional $800 million military aid to Ukraine.

The U.S. president said on April 21 that it sent a message to Putin: "He will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine."

Biden also announced a ban for Russian ships to enter U.S. ports. - Kyiv Independent

I wonder if this is effectively an admission that it's expected that Putin will succeed in occupying part of Ukraine. It could simply relate to the fact that he has already occupied places like Crimea though.

---------- Post added at 20:37 ---------- Previous post was at 20:33 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36119728)
I guess they're triggered by any Western website discussing their army's human rights abuses in Ukraine. Or the fact that they're utterly useless in any war where the enemy has the means to shoot back.

As Putin has switched off the internet outside of Russia, this does show that it's still available to those who wish to do us harm. I don't know why they're bothering though, as ordinary Russians won't be able to read Cableforum or any other Western website discussing the truth about what's happening.

Mick 21-04-2022 22:44

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Washington Post: Pentagon says Ukraine has more tanks on the ground than Russia.

Ukrainian forces have more tanks in Ukraine than Russians, “and they certainly have the purview to use them,” said an undisclosed senior U.S. defense official quoted by the Washington Post. - Kyiv Independent

---------- Post added at 22:32 ---------- Previous post was at 20:54 ----------

BREAKING: DATA: Russian combat power remaining in Ukraine (troops, weapons and military equipment), per a senior U.S. defense official

Feb 24 - 100 percent
March 11 - 90 percent
March 15 - 90 percent
March 22 - 89 percent
April 12 - 80 percent
April 19 - 75 percent - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy.

---------- Post added at 22:44 ---------- Previous post was at 22:32 ----------

Further Data: TOTAL Russian missile launches into Ukraine since the start of war: senior U.S. defense official

Mar 11 - 810
Mar 14 - 900
Mar 16 - 980
Mar 17 - 1,000
Mar 21 - 1,100
Mar 28 - 1,370
Mar 31 - 1,400
Apr 11 - 1,500
Apr 12 - 1,540
Apr 13 - 1,550
Apr 18 - 1,660
Apr 19 - 1,670 - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy

pip08456 21-04-2022 22:59

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36119760)
Washington Post: Pentagon says Ukraine has more tanks on the ground than Russia.

Ukrainian forces have more tanks in Ukraine than Russians, “and they certainly have the purview to use them,” said an undisclosed senior U.S. defense official quoted by the Washington Post. - Kyiv Independent

---------- Post added at 22:32 ---------- Previous post was at 20:54 ----------

BREAKING: DATA: Russian combat power remaining in Ukraine (troops, weapons and military equipment), per a senior U.S. defense official

Feb 24 - 100 percent
March 11 - 90 percent
March 15 - 90 percent
March 22 - 89 percent
April 12 - 80 percent
April 19 - 75 percent - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy.

That combat power % is a bit misleading as it assumes every BTG was at 100% strength which is unbelievable. Even US and British units struggle to get to 90% combat strengh.

The new weapons especially the 155 mm artillery Ukraine is to recieve could prove to be the turning point in this war.

Mick 22-04-2022 00:08

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36119777)
That combat power % is a bit misleading as it assumes every BTG was at 100% strength which is unbelievable. Even US and British units struggle to get to 90% combat strengh.

The new weapons especially the 155 mm artillery Ukraine is to recieve could prove to be the turning point in this war.

Not really, Russia assigned a certain amount of Combat troops, weapons and artillery before invading on 24th February. Fast forward to today, they’ve lost 25% of these “assigned” resources. This is what the U.S Defence official is getting at. It’s not talking about Russia’s total combat might in its entirety.

Paul 22-04-2022 13:06

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36119742)
What sort of attack?

They were back again last night as well.
Just a huge number of page loads, most attempting SQL injection.

You can see from the graph, our normal guest level is around 400 - 600.
Two nights ago, it hit almost 10,000, last night, over 16,000 at one point.

joglynne 22-04-2022 14:16

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36119811)
They were back again last night as well.
Just a huge number of page loads, most attempting SQL injection.

You can see from the graph, our normal guest level is around 400 - 600.
Two nights ago, it hit almost 10,000, last night, over 16,000 at one point.

WOW. Do you know of any other sites getting this high a level of errrr attention? Just out of interest, and I realise I am off topic, why do these, presumably automated, attacks happen at night?

TheDaddy 22-04-2022 14:51

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by joglynne (Post 36119817)
WOW. Do you know of any other sites getting this high a level of errrr attention? Just out of interest, and I realise I am off topic, why do these, presumably automated, attacks happen at night?

Because most of us are in bed then and the site will be saturated for longer without anyone knowing? Don't actually know, just seemed to make sense to me when I typed it!,

joglynne 22-04-2022 15:46

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Thanks Daddy. It does make sense, wish I knew more about this type of thing.

Wouldn't want it to show up on my search history though some one may think I was a danger to the internet. "The Silver Surfing Granny" up to mischief ....... yet again. :D :D :D

TheDaddy 22-04-2022 16:21

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by joglynne (Post 36119823)
Thanks Daddy. It does make sense, wish I knew more about this type of thing.

Wouldn't want it to show up on my search history though some one may think I was a danger to the internet. "The Silver Surfing Granny" up to mischief ....... yet again. :D :D :D

Yeah me to, pah mischief, you were tidying up the site for them, that money was resting in your account, there's perfectly reasonable answers for everything

RichardCoulter 22-04-2022 17:36

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by joglynne (Post 36119817)
WOW. Do you know of any other sites getting this high a level of errrr attention? Just out of interest, and I realise I am off topic, why do these, presumably automated, attacks happen at night?

Maybe it's daytime where the attackers live?

Hugh 22-04-2022 17:51

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
St Petersburg is 2 hours ahead of us, as is Moscow (3 hours when it’s GMT).

Mick 23-04-2022 12:14

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1650712450

Mick 23-04-2022 12:16

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Culture Ministry: Russia commited 242 crimes against Ukraine’s cultural heritage.

The ministry said it had recorded Russian war crimes against Ukraine’s cultural heritage in 11 out of the country’s 24 oblasts. Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kyiv oblasts have suffered the most. - Kyiv Independent

Mick 23-04-2022 12:19

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
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Mick 23-04-2022 15:39

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Russia's war already hit global grain trade.

According to Taras Vysotsky, first deputy minister of agriculture, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to higher prices and reduced access to food in countries importing grain from Ukraine and Russia. - Kyiv Independent

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Finland reduces electricity imports from Russia.

According to national power grid operator Fingrid, this is done to prevent possible attempts by Russia to influence Finland during the NATO membership application process. - Kyiv Independent

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BREAKING: Military intelligence: 2 Russian generals killed near Kherson.

According to Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate, the military hit a Russian command post near occupied regional capital Kherson, allegedly killing two Russian generals and wounding one. - Kyiv Independent

Hugh 23-04-2022 15:57

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
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