Re: Coronavirus
 

makes me wonder if yesterdays deaths were under reported so it looks like a bigger jump today.

Re: Coronavirus
 

They changed the way they are reporting I believe.

Re: Coronavirus
 

My mum had no symptoms, the hardest part we cannot see her for 2 weeks. i hope she is strong enough if worst is to come.

Re: Coronavirus
 

England's Chief Medical Officer is self-isolating now.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

don't put yourself down, sometimes you do contribute something useful......sometimes.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g...line-nhs-staff

Testing for frontline NHS staff.

Another policy u-turn. Let me delve into the news today and see what prompted that...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...droidApp_Tweet

At least we are getting things right in the end I suppose.

Re: Coronavirus
 

My wife came down with the Virus symptoms and so did my stepson. So nearly 7 days in me and my 6 year old are the only ones that appear to be virus free and I even share a bed with the wife still.

So when I approached my manager about it I said I wasn't sure if this was just a cold bug or the symptoms of covid-19. They said to be safe have 14 days off. Now because they don't test and me and my daughter haven't got it.

I'm a bit worried that because they don't test and it wasn't Covid then my wife and stepson who might have just had a bug will be walking about thinking they are immune to it now and may end up catching it at a later date and think it's a bug then end up spreading it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Welcome to the mystery that is health policy in the United Kingdom.

Re: Coronavirus
 

A simple solution to that is after self isolation, tell them to go back to living as though they haven't had it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

IIRC they say if you've had contact with someone who has the virus (like my mum) you should self isolate for 14 days, I'm on day 1. But if on day 13 you develop sympton you should self isolate for another 7 days.

I had my HR manager meassage me about getting tested because I'm a key worker.

I'm very peeped with work over this, I'm following the goverment guidlines and that want me back.

Re: Coronavirus
 

What U-Turn would that be ?

Re: Coronavirus
 

That it wasn’t necessary to test frontline workers. It’s in the gov.uk link.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'm now growing tired of you continual useless jibes in this topic.

Do not post again unless you have something useful to say.

---------- Post added at 20:17 ---------- Previous post was at 20:14 ----------

So no policy that says they wont.
Your just trying to twist it to you hate of all things related to the current government, again.

See above, you constant jibes at all things related to the current administration, and other CF members isnt needed.
Stop, or leave. I have better things to do than have to wade through your constant drivel in this topic.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don’t hate all things this current Government do. Good decisions and bad decisions are good/bad regardless of who is in power.

Nobody wants this to go the way of Italy here and it’s far too important to get wrong.

I welcome, for instance, the Chancellor’s unprecedented intervention in supporting the economy. Employees, self-employed and small businesses at this time. A huge commitment and exactly the commitment we need to ensure people do what we need them to do. Stay home.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The facilities were simply not available before now. It doesn't involve self-contained test kits like pregnancy tests.
Link

It they're self-isolating because of a contaminated household, going back to that household isn't much use.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'm an NHS worker and my wife is a teacher. I think it's certain she could have got it from work as the week starting that they closed the schools, 9 staff were off with it and just after the closed them down another 3 went down with it inc my wife.

After I spoke on the phone to my ward manager the testing station they had near me stopped doing tests due to not enough tests going about. It would have been nice to at least know.

I agree though go about like you've never had it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

One thing i have noticed in the past couple of days is i can actually smell the sea,i only live about 300 mtrs from it but usually all i can smell is fumes and factory smells,the air quality seems so much better.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That will have more to do with the wind direction, unless there are a huge number of factories sitting out at sea.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well what can i say,there's nothing like an informed opinion.



And that was nothing like one;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's called common sense. If the wind if coming from the direction of factories that are not operating, it won't smell of the sea, will it? I suppose it might, if they are on a narrow strip of land and the sea is also on the other side.

Re: Coronavirus
 

And that is the case here,pluss the A180 cuts through the middle and the traffic smell is usually quite bad,but with the factories shut and no traffic i can actually smell the sea or if you want to get technical about it the Humber estuary.;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's a tough time but there will be slight small things like this which we can make the best of. Enjoy. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52065140

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think the thing that has given me pleasure was how quiet it is. I was in the garden yesterday and all I could hear was bird song and the odd massive bumble bee defying gravity as it wombled around the plants. No traffic, no planes and no noisy music.

I know these pleasure are coming at a great cost but I intend to see my cup as half full.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The Scottish Secretary Alister Jack is self-isolating now as well after experiencing symptoms of the coronavirus.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...ptoms-11965001

Re: Coronavirus
 

Wind from your south-west(if I've got it right) won't come from the sea. A smell needs the wind to carry it, unless your extremely near the source. Sound from a major trunk road to my south, is another matter.

Re: Coronavirus
 

RIGHT NOW
Wind
NNE 35 km/h

Re: Coronavirus
 

Link
Considering activities where sharing saliva is number one in the guaranteed transmission method, they should all have been forcibly locked up in quarantine.Instead they've been allowed to potentially carry back the virus to those towns and cities.:mad:

Link
Link
Sharing saliva does really need highlighting as a slam dunk transmission method.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We’re fighting 2 pandemics, Coronavirus and grand stupidity.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Department of Health and Social Care daily update on Coronavirus.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status...01924786790400

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...1-019-11965035

Re: Coronavirus
 

Lets not also forget 135 have fully recovered.

Re: Coronavirus
 

And the number of fatalities currently represents 0.0016% of the population. That puts the risk of you dying from this into perspective.

Re: Coronavirus
 

And lets hope that many more recover from contacting Coronavirus.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I've just seen a good Samaritan delivering shopping to my neighbours across the road. They were inside and waved to him as he left the stuff on their doorstep. I guess they must be self isolating as they normally go shopping themselves.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Ed Conway, from Sky News, who usually deals in figures for finance has just tweeted the Latest death toll update puts uk in a very "Grim" situation, worse than Italy.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/stat...08366881128448

Re: Coronavirus
 

They will, but given it takes about 2 - 3 weeks to be classed as fully recovered, its going to take another week or two for that number to rise more rapidly, the vast majority of our (UK) confirmed cases are still classed as "ongoing".

Lets not also forget that a large number of other people will get a few mild symptoms, shake it off, and never be counted.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Are we not 2 weeks behind Italy as yes the a large number will recover thankfully as the worse areas currently are London and the Midlands where there is obviously a much bigger populace.

So far down here in our city we have had just over 30 people diagnosed with it and sadly 3 of those died.

Re: Coronavirus
 

ITALY - UK Trajectory:

At 10 deaths in Italy, was on Feb 25th
16 days later, on March 12th, it was 1016 deaths.

At 10 deaths in UK, was on March 12th
16 days later, on March 28th, we're at 1028* deaths.

The UK trajectory, is *AHEAD*, albeit marginally of Italy in COVID-19 deaths.

* Updated figures as of 15:34.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Here's hoping our containment strategy flattens the curve.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That’s very worrying. Anyone know how many deaths Italy had before their lockdown commenced?

Re: Coronavirus
 

You can't compare simple raw numbers. Things like population size, distribution, and behaviour are all factors.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Most people won't die, but those that do are more likely to be over 70, ill or disabled. That's not to say that no young people haven't died, because they have.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Population similar, distribution worse for us as it’s more uniform, we are ill behaved (see last weekend). Easy comparisons for anyone willing to make them.

---------- Post added at 17:14 ---------- Previous post was at 17:09 ----------

800 approx.

Re: Coronavirus
 

True as IIRC Italy has an older population.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It is behaviour of a more personal or social nature that has the impact, ie interchange of saliva. People do not have a 2m radius of fug about them like BO. Realistically, unless somebody is coughing or sneezing or exchanging saliva in some way, there is little chance of transmission if people are independently going out and not gathering. On the other hand if a shop worker is coughing(eg yesterday in Tescos), they shouldn't be there.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

According to Reuters, the number of people who have died after catching the new coronavirus in Italy has risen by 889 to 10,023.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...efing-11965046

Re: Coronavirus
 

While I’m sure exchange of saliva is a factor clearly all 600 000 worldwide cases don’t like to kissing or being spat at. The transmission rate is far too high for that alone.

I’m unsure how this links to Italian behaviour being different from ours. Unless you are aiming at continental embraces to say hello - in which case again that makes our statistics here worse by comparison.

Re: Coronavirus
 

True

Italy has a population of 61 million, with 14 million over 65

UK has a population of 67 million, with 12.2 million over 65

Percentage wise that means -

Italy - 23%
UK - 18.3%

Over 65.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It also only currently represents that. It will go far higher. To the extent it cripples the healthcare system and people start dying from all kinds of unrelated issues (cancer etc.) because there was no resource to treat them, despite perhaps never having coronavirus.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

So how many of those with the virus have been coughed or sneezed upon? With the group in the Peak District who had a picnic and used a shisha, if just one of them has the virus, they WILL ALL have it now. They will now return to their homes and likely congregate in groups and use a shisha, and they WILL ALL also get it. Just an example of why the transmission via saliva need highlighting. Things like shouting and speaking are likely to spread saliva droplets.

From the past the evidence is that enclosed spaces are a huge factor, especially ships. That would include offices and hospitals. It's not unlikely that merely breathing helps spread it.

Impact of mass gatherings on an influenza pandemic

Re: Coronavirus
 

What about those that cough anyway e.g. asthmatic/other respiratory condition or a smoker. You shouldn't make assumptions just because someone coughs.

Re: Coronavirus
 

If they're that badly effected by whatever, they should be at home under the "shielding" protocol. Still doesn't mean they can't also have the virus. Wet coughs and sneezing aren't in the list of major symptoms, so what major transmission methods does that leave?

Re: Coronavirus
 

No, it puts the risk of you having died already into perspective. Many more who have been or will be infected have yet to die. On BBC News this morning they said 20K deaths in the UK is the minimum we can expect.

On average death occurs 14 days after onset of symptoms
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ath-rate/#days

Re: Coronavirus
 

And symptoms occur anything from 2-14 days after catching it. It's going to be a long month I suspect...

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think all of you should read this article from The Spectator.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ar-as-we-think

According to the article, the death rate may not be the best thing to compare countries. In the article they explain how normally anyone who dies with a respiratory infection in the UK is recorded as "bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation". If the patient dies from a respiratory infection but has an underlying condition like cancer, that is what is written on the death certificate. So flu's are not normally recorded.

I think this particular strain of flu is more deadly than others but it is still a 'flu'. I think the death figures are just frightening people. It is estimated (as no flu is recorded as the cause of death) that in 2013-2014, 11,000 people died from flu related causes yet I don't remember anything like this daily recording of deaths being used. Even using Sephiroth's previous figures shows that it is exactly like any other flu, affecting those that are older or at higher risk.
I think the lockdown was necessary to slow the rate of people needing the NHS so it can cope. Coronvirus will spread like any other flu (as can be seen in Italy even after lockdown) but the management of the influx of patients using the NHS is where everything lies not the death rate.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The thing is in 2013-14 I assume 11,000 people died from flu across the entire winter. With Coronavirus that many have died in Italy in just four weeks.

If we don't get to that stage, and I pray we don't, it'll be because of the success of a significant amount of Government intervention around social distancing, working from home, closing businesses and investment in healthcare. Not because Coronavirus is "just a flu".

11,000 people die of flu when we do nothing, more will likely die in CV related circumstances despite throwing the kitchen sink at it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It is “a” flu, but because it is new there is no immunity so the infection spreads really quickly.

It’s true most younger and fitter will shake it off, but it’s not true of all. Not much is known but those affected are impacted on an individual basis and seem to react differently.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Letters to be sent to the country’s 30 million households from the Prime Minister.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...will-get-worse

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not anymore.

https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news...xecutive-says/

Re: Coronavirus
 

Strange that they aren't giving out the reason to why.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Let’s take yesterday’s 259 deaths in 24 hours. 13 people from this total, had no underlying health conditions. That’s 13 people dying unexpectedly, but what about the rest, people with COPD, can live for years, but they get this, it floors them and eventually kills them, should we treat this as an unexpected death?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

The Mail has not just scraped the barrel for this article, they turned the barrel over and took the detritus from underneath...

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1585480881

Re: Coronavirus
 

and it took 4 of them to scrape enough up for the story . . . no sport to report on I guess ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

They've caught the "may have" "could be" disease from other tabloid rags like the guanriad and independent :D:D

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don't buy that, spiderplant. I appreciate that we are still learning about this virus, but did you see that the results of a recent epidemiological model developed by researchers at Oxford University suggested that half the population of the UK may already have been infected by the coronavirus? That being the case, we are fast approaching herd immunity and we may well reach the peak infection rate very soon.

When all is said and done, my guess is that the most significant factor about Covid 19 will be acknowledged to be the very fast infection rate, not the mortality rate (which is still a lot less than we can expect in a year with 'normal' flu). It is the high number of deaths within so few weeks that is causing exceptional demand on health services around the world that is significant.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'm on a downer ATM. Luckily I can talk to mu sister

My mum is on a ward of 5 Coronavirus patients, and can't have any visitors for 14 days.


They are wating to do more tests, I'm guessing they are looking for antibodies.

I've had to self isolate and work want me to get a test, much to my annoyance. But I'm not going back until 14 days after I saw her as per government guidelines.

I feel like I have a cold, I have a mild sore throat that comes and goes, but it's not the swallowing brolen glass type.

Had someone drop round a few essential items.

Re: Coronavirus
 

A hypothesis not backed up by the fact 80% of those tested for Coronavirus test negative. We also have the number of deaths now that they forecast on April 6th. The problem is they are trying to apply mathematical models to something that has far too many unknown variables at this stage.

This is demonstrably false already looking at evidence from Italy. With the Guardian reporting that half of those who reach the 'intensive care' stage dying that figure is only going to go up and up.

We will likely have our own figure in 4-6 weeks that will shatter the 'it's only a flu' theory.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The Department of Health and Social Care have just released the new daily updated figures.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status...48001868111874

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52081389

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...tance-and-stay

An interesting Chinese study now how one passenger infected 13 people on a bus - including people who got on AFTER he left. Indicates too that the furthest away was 4.5 metres.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...d-to-covid-19/

Re: Coronavirus
 

That is just one model though, The imperial college model disagrees.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Link

And the flaw in that plan is....

Re: Coronavirus
 

i can imagine civil unrest if they have a lockdown for 6 months.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It seems the lockdown period was initially 3 weeks but in the space of less then a week its possible scope has been widened to a possible 6 months or even more.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200324...rtual-lockdown

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-june-11965226

Re: Coronavirus
 

The Government seem to be breaking the bad news and imposing restrictions in movement by stealth, possibly to avoid the civil unrest that deadite66 mentioned.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

That’s not what was said.

Re: Coronavirus
 

tbf, they said it would be reviewed after 3 weeks, not that it would last 3 weeks.

And if we go beyond the headlines, today she actually said

Re: Coronavirus
 

Already happening in italy after 4 weeks lockdown

https://en.as.com/en/2020/03/29/othe...24_787653.html

Re: Coronavirus
 

In Scotland the Chief Medical Officer hinted at the current restrictions being in place for 13 weeks.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Things are returning to normal in Wuhan. I think this could go on here for up to 3 months, but I would not have thought it would be necessary beyond that.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Except of course China did everything to bring it under control once they realised the scale of what they were dealing with.

Track, trace, isolate.

It will take us longer because we didn't conform to the consensus of the global scientific community fast enough, haven't done any meaningful testing in the context of above and allowed large gatherings to continue far longer than they ought to have. Indeed on that last point it was only when the Arsenal manager caught it that we suspended Premiership games and other sports followed suit.

We have almost nothing in common with the response in Wuhan (once China acknowledged the scale of the problem).

And of course regardless of what's going on anywhere any decisions should be based on the body count here.

I bet this didn't happen in Wuhan:

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/...sXFQkBICqCTiUk

Re: Coronavirus
 

China WAS criticised for it's tactics of severe lockdown.
Link
Link

South Korea
Of course that misses out strangers passing one another on the street.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As I said.

"Did everything they could to bring it under control once they realised the scale of what they were dealing with".

Being criticised as "too draconian" is hardly a valid criticism.

As for your criticism of South Korea you are, not for the first time in this thread, lacking insight into the bigger picture.

Just because you could pass someone in the street doesn't mean there isn't value in identifying everyone else you had contact with.

When that "person on the street" comes forward you conduct similar contact tracing. Eventually you have identified almost everyone at risk. Because you are considering things at a 'micro' level and ignoring the bigger picture you somehow claim this has equal value as not tracing at all. Demonstrably false in any pandemic event.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Where have I criticised South Korea? I just pointed out the policies that wouldn't allowed in the West, weren't necessarily a complete solution.

By criticising China for it's lockdown, they were saying a lockdown shouldn't have happened. The scientific evidence didn't support a lockdown.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think given the proportion of the planet under lockdown scientific analysis has moved on somewhat than that advice.

Policies like those implemented in South Korea could be implemented by anyone who legislated for it - that's the purpose of Government.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I have several points to make on this issue.

We know that we have a partial lockdown. Its not a total lockdown yet.

But, if we had only listed to the PM before and didn't defy what he said about social distance. We would NOT be in this predicament.

From the off we had panic buying, which was stupid.
We then had loads of people defying the order of social distance. And jammed trains, and had barbeques. And now the government has said that this could last for months.

I certainly hope not, many businesses will go bust. And that is a genuine problem.

And before members saying that shopkeepers can claim a certain amount of money in JUNE. Too late by then.

I know of small businesses have laid off staff, and closed down.

Local garages have closed down, as most of the work comes from MOTs.

If you follow advice on Sky ( l don't know the link for computers) there is a video by Kate Winslet, on washing your hands. Watch it and follow what she says.

MPs have not even told you what washing hands can do with the germs.

I also heard that if we get strong sunny weather. This will kill the bug.

I think that by the mid April, we should be getting back to normal - I sincerely hope so

COVID 19 Question
 

I am not a medical person.

But l would like to know how they create a vaccine to destroy the latest virus outbreak.

And if so, if penicillin works on various bugs. Why cant the present anti biotics work on Covid 19

Re: Coronavirus
 

Really no need for a new thread to ask questions about coronavirus Arthur. ;)

Merged.

---------- Post added at 21:29 ---------- Previous post was at 21:25 ----------

However, to answer your question: antibiotics kill bacteria but they have no effect on viruses.

To make a vaccine, you have to find a way of triggering the human immune system to create antibodies that will destroy the virus. A vaccine effectively prompts the body to protect itself.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As Parliament has closed for a month, is it now proroged? Will he have had to speak to the Queen about it again?

Re: Coronavirus
 

No. Parliament rises for recess at Easter every year. They’ve just agreed to rise earlier and for longer.

Re: Coronavirus
 

China being a quasi communist totalitarian state, where freedoms are not a right, but a gift of the state.

Socialism as it always ends, with less freedoms and state control.

But not compatible with our society.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Nobody is saying otherwise, but it has helped them to control the virus. It's why we in the West might struggle and we'd be foolish to think we'll be as successful at controlling it.

---------- Post added at 22:32 ---------- Previous post was at 22:22 ----------

Anyway on the upside...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES-9IqSX0AE03mK.jpg

Re: Coronavirus
 

jfman & Pierre, the next time I see either of you sniping at other members (inc each other) you will be removed from this topic.

---------- Post added at 01:06 ---------- Previous post was at 01:05 ----------

Given that was on Jan 2nd, before any of this, what's your point ?