Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The BBC’s charter expires in 2027, so it’s going to be around, charging a licence fee and broadcasting linear TV, for 7 more years as a bare minimum.

Because negotiations for the new charter need to finish around 5-6 years from now, if there was any serious prospect of the BBC losing the right to charge a universal fee for its services, you would be hearing serious people starting to talk about it by now. That means we are going to have a publicly funded BBC until at least 2037, although the precise means of revenue gathering may well change in some way (a broadband tax is possible IMO).

However let us please not drift into yet another licence fee thread. This topic is about content delivery technology, not the way it’s paid for.

Re: Confirmed: linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Streaming isn't live, it can add to further delays for 'live' sport. Try syncing watching cricket on Sky Go, with commentary on R4 TMS. The radio is sometimes an over ahead !

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

For the purposes of this thread, there is a very important distinction between “on demand” and “IP-TV”. True on demand services are delivered over IP, but not all IP-TV is on demand. It is entirely possible to deliver a linear scheduled broadcast tv service over IP. That’s why claims that the U.K. will eventually move to a system of entirely IP delivered TV, do not amount to proof that linear broadcast will entirely give way to on demand. The two phenomena are related but they are not synonymous.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I believe Plusnet, Talktalk and BT do this via multicast.

Re: Confirmed: linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The latency issue certainly is a problem, but they are 'working on it' as they say.

Re: Confirmed: linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

From a "related" thread...

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2020/08/1.gif

Re: Confirmed: linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

(sigh...)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45499784

The BBC says it has worked out how to eliminate "streaming lag", which causes live TV to be delayed by several seconds when watched online.

Re: Confirmed: linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

They worked out how to do that 90 years ago. ;)

Re: Confirmed: linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

<even longer sigh...>

As I explained in that thread on the 1st of this month...

And as I also said in that thread, when you previously said "they’re working on it"...

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Also worth noting the gulf that exists between ‘eliminating’ streaming lag (which OB claims the BBC has worked out) and ‘improvements’ to streaming lag, which is what the BBC is willing to claim for itself, in lab tests. Nonetheless, I’m sure we can expect OB’s stock reply in such situations, namely that everything will be mathemagically worked out and anyone who doubts it is a pessimist.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I have been saying for a while that the broadcast linear channels will be facing increasing difficulties in finding new content with the streamers buying up everything in sight. Well, assisted by Covid 19, it seems that the crunch point is getting closer sooner than might have been expected.

Of course, the correct approach would be for these channels to commission content of their own. They should have seen this coming a mile off, but we are where we are. Sky has recently indicated that it will step up on producing more originals, but is this too little too late? Fortunately for them, they will be protected by Comcast's embrace, but the future doesn't look so good for ITV and Channel 4. The smaller channels may eventually find this is too much, although they will probably try to spin out their existence by showing more repeats.

The Beeb is swimming with money compared with their terrestrial rivals, so if it gets its act together, it should survive this.

https://advanced-television.com/2020...r-new-content/

Streaming giants such as Netflix and Amazon Prime Video are consistently outbidding British broadcasters for new shows amid a global shortage of content, forcing traditional broadcasters to find new ways to fill schedules in the coming months and years.

Although TV audiences rose sharply during lockdown, the near-global production shutdown has created a looming shortage of new material to broadcast. At the same time, Britain’s commercial broadcasters are dealing with the collapse in the advertising market caused by the recession, leaving cash-rich SVoD services able to swoop in and spend big on new commissions to maintain their growth.

John McVay, head of the trade body Pact, which represents the UK’s independent TV production companies, told The Guardian that the circumstances posed a challenge for traditional channels.

“I know a lot of people who work for streamers in acquisitions and they are buying everything,” he said. “Unless we can get new, fresh content into the British schedules that is engaging and resonates with our experience of the world we’re living through, then I fear for our broadcasters.”

He added that there was a particular demand for already made shows looking for a home, as broadcasters and streamers seek to satisfy audiences that want to watch new material. “If you’ve got good quality British content that you’ve made – finished programmes – then you can charge a premium.”

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

You might wish for the broadcast Linear channels to disappear OB but you will sadly be disappointed by the outcome.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

If you say so, Den. Let's watch and see what happens.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

It will open happen in your dreams OB..

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

As we know from the outrage when Netflix lost the rights to Friends - the average viewer is quite happy watching repeats of content, and indeed outraged when such content falls from their favourite streamer!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

If only. Netflix U.K. still has the rights to Friends, which is about the only thing my kids ever put on the tv when they get in from school :disturbd:

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Only in the US. Warner Bros pulled it to put it on their own streaming service HBO Max.

Re: Confirmed: linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Be cheaper to add a lag to TMS than to cure the streaming lag. ;)

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

So OB is now predicting the demise of Sky and ITV citing no good shows for them to air even though both own their own production companies.

https://www.itvstudios.com/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITV_Studios

Sky having share holdings in many independent producers have now committed to Sky Studios and have numerous production companies under the Comcast Umbrella.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Let’s be honest MM it’s never been an argument grounded in reality.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

In fairness to Old Boy, he is not predicting the demise of Sky.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

In this thread maybe in many others he has.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Sky satellite, yes, in the distant future, but not Sky as a company. You guys conflate everything I post.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Its called scrutinising as l am sure you have heard of it.;)

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Your reality is different from actual reality, jfman. All the media press is wrong and you are right. That is a given in your perverse world.

A decent debate on these issues would be good on a forum of this nature rather than pathetic attempts at ridicule because you are losing the argument. I accept you are not the only one, since there are a number of posters who love channel numbers and don't want change, but you have been particularly argumentative - not only on this subject, but on a whole range of subjects.

Let's have a sensible debate instead of these interminable put-downs and sour remarks.

Even you have had to admit that the number of viewing hours on the streaming services is starting to outstrip viewing on traditional channels. The main difference in the argument now is where this is all going to end, and in particular, the survivability of the broadcast linear channels.

I do not subscribe to your view that these channels will keep going regardless of the number of viewers. Why would they bother? Once the need for any service drops to below a certain level, it ceases to be provided. It happened with VHS tapes, with Amazon Fire Phones, with Izal toilet paper....

---------- Post added at 09:11 ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 ----------

Or bending the facts, more like!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

When one has a differing opinion l would not call it bending the facts OB as healthy reasoned rational debate is part of what a forum is all about.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I have no problems with healthy, reasoned debate, Den, but I was talking about bending the facts of what I have said in the past. Much of the dessent on here is not supported by facts, reports or articles, but by personal opinion.

Personal opinions are fine, particularly about the future, which cannot be predicted with great accuracy, but what is inexcusable is those who insist a person is wrong without any supporting evidence. That is no better than the flat-earther brigades who tried to ridicule those who said the world was actually a globe, and that it was the earth revolving around the sun instead of vice versa, and so forth.

What we all agree on is that the viewing of streaming services is increasing at the expense of our TV channels. Where will it all end? That is the debate. However, there is little debate - just silly remarks and people saying it won't happen without any justification. That is not debate, is it?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Oh this is hilarious.

OB, all you have ever offered here is your opinions, with the opinions of others as your ‘evidence’.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

So answer how ITV is going to be without good content despite having one of the biggest production companies in the world.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Whilst OB does sometimes come across more as a Comical Ali type and less a Nick Davies type, the issue with ITV is the huge cut in advertising spend which is reducing its ability to invest in productions and bid for talent.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Indeed.

The five PSBs plus Sky all have their own studios, plus the capacity to commission external companies to produce ideas that have been developed in-house. None of them rely on bidding for third party content to fill their schedules - not even Sky, which saw the threat coming some years ago and has been developing its in-house capacity for some time now.

The smaller channels largely rely on endless repeats of content previously shown on one of the PSBs+Sky, similar to the syndication system in the US. It is these channels that provide simple, free-of-charge access to old shows that are nice to dip into for old times sake but are not often worth having the sort of box set access you get from Prime Video. This is the stuff you watch on a whim when you can’t be bothered through Netflix menus or entering search terms using your fiddly remote control.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

And nobody can argue about its cut in advertising revenue but to suggest it will be left without any decent content is a little extreme to say the least especially as I say owing to the fact it owns huge production businesses.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Pretty sure quoting from from a leading Technical expert in Broadcast technology at the BBC, as I have done, is "supporting evidence", which in his case, is unbiased...

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Because of Covid, there is very little new content anywhere - the exception being live sport.

A look through the listings shows repeat after repeat (especially on BBC).

I'm sure it is little different on the streamers.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

What media press? I only see blogs.

You are now being ridiculous Old Boy. You are asking me to admit to a point that I've literally never contested. What I've contested and asked you to demonstrate, but been unable to, is where linear live broadcasting - over any method (DTT, satellite, cable or IPTV) reaches zero. Not small/tiny/limited. Actually zero.

All of those examples have high costs despite limited use with the fixed costs being absorbed over a smaller customer base as demand diminishes. The continued manufacture of products of limited or near-zero demand have - what we call in economics - opportunity costs. What else could that factory make? What else could the distribution chains be used for?

The same principles don't apply, regardless of how much you wish them to, to linear, broadcast television. The costs of broadcast (for major content owners and distributors) are near zero in terms of overall revenue, reach is millions of homes.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The abolition of the licence fee (Mod edit, Chris) ... is clearly not the topic of this thread, as I’ve already stated.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

While I certainly don’t see the point in this thread discussing the merits or otherwise of the licence fee - it’s a tedious subject exhausted plenty of times for over 20 years now - I do think it’s abolition is key to Old Boy’s dreams being realised by critically undermining the UK television industry.

If there’s a way to ensure any North American tat dominates the airwaves (or the fibre) it’s the terminal decline of the UK television industry.

While there’s a licence fee there’s going to be plenty of low cost, affordable, British repeat content (from BBC and ITV) for linear channels to feast upon for decades to come.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

More pesky linear TV channels launching on selected smart TVs.
https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2020...ermany-and-uk/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Apart from Hisense this is not on any major brands or devices has fail written all over it unless they pull their finger out.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I have provided plenty of links to support my views on this over the last five years or so and I would remind you that I was once ridiculed for suggesting that streaming services were the future. Now the streaming services are starting to dominate viewer choices, the main issue is whether the TV channels will close down. Perceptions change over time.

I have said why I believe what I do, and whilst others can prefer other outcomes, they express these in a way that indicate very strongly that I am wrong, with no evidence to support these views themselves, and not wanting any debate about it.

Nobody knows who will be proved right as we are talking about what things will look like 15 years from now. I am just stating my belief in what will happen, and I stand by that.

I am not the only one offering opinions on here, but it is obvious that some contributors don't want any change - they want no dissention on that, and cannot contemplate life without inflexible schedules, EPGs and channel numbers.

Well, good luck if you hold that view, that's what I say!

---------- Post added at 15:43 ---------- Previous post was at 15:39 ----------

It's so not! The only connection is that as people pay for more streaming services, they will question more why they are paying for services they don't use.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Please provide statistics to back up this assertion. Viewing figures from BARB would do. Good luck getting stats from any of the streamers though, none of them provide anything like the level of detail you get from BARB. Clue: basic subscriber numbers do not equate to hours watched.

Have fun ...

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Sorry, I should have made clear that I was referring to pay tv, not all TV.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom...ertakes-pay-tv

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

'Dominate' viewer choices.

15.4 million subscriptions plays 15.1 million, many of which will be the same people! Indeed, as someone with Amazon, Netflix, Now TV, Apple TV+ and Virgin I'm counted 5 times!

The majority of my money goes to Virgin though. 80% of my viewing habits by that spurious metric are streaming though...

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I'm pretty much the same , and even with having all those streaming services still watch far more terrestrial and traditional pay TV.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

In which case your argument is self defeating. One form of paid-for entertainment may displace another, but with around 66% of viewing share still going to the five free to air PSBs and more than 75% to all free to air broadcasters, streaming service providers could entirely replace paid-for broadcast TV and still account for only a quarter of viewing, by your measure.

https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/...g-summary-new/

Besides all of the above, the report you linked to does not support the assertion you rested on it. Streaming subscriptions do not “dominate” pay-tv subscriptions. There are (slightly) more streaming subs in the U.K. than pay-tv subs, but these obviously are not two different sets of people. The numbers are so close that for the most part, it’s inevitable that most pay tv subscribers have simply added a streaming sub to their package. The picture here is of people adding to the mix of entertainment they buy, not swapping one for another.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Yes, I see that, thanks for clarifying. But the point remains that there has been an explosion in the amount of viewing via streaming services in 5 years.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Which nobody has ever disputed. A range of products, at a fraction of the cost of Sky/Virgin packages taps into a new market - those that can’t afford or don’t want traditional TV packages, while also being an inexpensive add on for those who do.

To extrapolate this reality in the manner you do on the other hand...

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

It would be interesting to get to know how many of these are Virgin Media customers subscribing to Now TV for Sky Atlantic.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Vestel is a top three TV manufacturer and Europe's largest so that's a pretty good start. It sells under retailers' own brands so isn't well known in the UK in its own right.

rlaxx has plans for other platforms too.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Ha ha! Yes, good point!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Well, you learn something new every day, I've never heard of them...

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

They make many cheap supermarket televisions and some formerly decent brands use their sets but rebadge them.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

They are huge
https://www.avforums.com/threads/how...estel.2019864/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Turkish delight.....

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

If you're old enough to remember Asil Nadir and PollyPeck:
http://www.t-vine.com/asil-nadir-arr...sed-from-jail/

Meanwhile, interesting developments from Comcast:
https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2020...lobal-service/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Views by streaming on Samsung TVs is overtaking linear viewing. As the number of people buying smart TVs increases, I would expect this trend to gather pace.

https://advanced-television.com/2020...ar-viewership/

---------- Post added at 17:39 ---------- Previous post was at 17:24 ----------

...And in the meantime, the BBC confirms there will be no more linear channels from the Corporation.

https://www.mediamole.co.uk/entertai...rs_412844.html

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

No, he didn’t...

If they launched a new channel, it would have to use existing capacity...

From your first link I wonder what happened in the first six months of this year that caused people to watch more TV?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

All those folk on furlough and kids at home causing internal turmoil for Old Boy. It’s good on one hand they’re streaming but not so good as an economic cost and the impact on education. I guess you win some you lose some.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Ah, still not changed OB. Still banging on about this. How many years now? We can't be far off your original 10 year ramblings now, can we? When are you now predicting the death of linear TV? Will be interesting to see what happens when a swathe of new content lands on linear TV and streaming services. Lockdown probably skewed the figures somewhat recently, with everyone at home had the choice between crappy day time TV or top quality shows available to watch at any time.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I'm pretty sure he said 2035.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Not the first time he didn't and there's still no answer to any of the pertinent questions many of us have posed as to what causes this sea change. Even Amazon are looking at launching linear channels in some territories.

Enthusiasts are early adopters to new technology. However linear will continue to exist while the average consumer likes switching on a TV and pressing '1'. Old Boy will be along to call them simpletons/lazy any minute now. Regardless, these are consumers in the marketplace. Consumers more likely to watch adverts. Eyeballs drive what will be delivered, not OBs pipe dream.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

You sure l thought it was 2025.:p:

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I said 2035, and you only need to take thetime to look at the posts to see that this is correct.

The disinformation that some people like to spread on here is quite remarkable, which must be either an indication of desperation, goading, trolling or perhaps early onset dementia.

:D

---------- Post added at 07:43 ---------- Previous post was at 07:32 ----------

Hello, Harry, nice to see you back. I have often wondered what happened to you!

I guess the bit I’ve highlighted clearly shows the difference that VOD brings, and once the majority of the population gets used to it, this will be the way most people will choose to watch TV.

That’s what I believe will happen, but hey, who knows? Others have a different view, which is OK, although for the life of me I cannot see why anyone would seriously believe that methods of viewing will not completely change in time. Even the BBC is planning for the new IPTV world in a decade’s time, and an end to the existing broadcasts by transmitters, which will be a major trigger for this change.

I am sure you cannot have not seen the big change in viewing habits that have been reported over just the few years since you’ve been absent from this thread. In 15 years, I reckon that change will be complete.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Actually you didn’t. Here’s one example from several in your original thread on this tired old subject:

That’s from 2015, in “The future for linear TV channels” thread. There are other examples on the same page.

QFT

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Can you provide a source for this? Considering it took 14 years notification for analogue switch off you’d think the end of terrestrial transmissions would be publicised better.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I am well aware of that post, which referred to the rolling out of broadband. That’s what I said would be more accessible by 2025.

I have always talked of 2035 in relation to VOD.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I am well aware of your retrospective claim to have been talking about broadband. Anyone else is welcome to click the little blue arrow by the quote and see it in context, where you repeatedly reference 10 years from now, including posts where the only thing you've quoted is people talking about VOD.

You switched to predicting 2035 because we made an argument you couldn't answer. You admitted as much:

Only later, did you settle on the idea of 2035, and soon afterwards you started claiming you'd never said otherwise.

Busted.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Thanks for digging out those old posts, Chris, showing that the linear extinction date was bumped forward by ten years.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Come 2025 it'll be bumped to 2045 :D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I am sorry if I was not clear that the 2025 date, but I did clarify what I meant back in 2015.

To still be going on about that after all this time, really, Chris! Perhaps you are just being playful... :D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I only bring it up when there's a danger of you getting away with re-writing history. The posts are there for anyone to see, but sometimes it's helpful to draw attention to them.

There's no shame in admitting you were wrong - something you seemed to have less trouble doing in 2015 than you do now.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

2035 it has been for the last 5 years, and that’s not going to change.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Gregorian or Hijrah calendar? ;)

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Keep digging OB...:dig::dig:

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I have just been through these posts. I had indeed clarified that I thought broadband would be rolled out to cover virtually the whole country by 2025. I also said ‘things will look different’ by 2025. If you read this in context with the posts at the time, what I meant by that was that by 2025, the advance of the streaming services would help people to understand the way we were going, and the future in my vision would not look so out of place.

I do understand that my comments may have been genuinely misunderstood, and I have apologised for that, but why this is such an issue for some of you I do not understand. It was 2015 when I started that thread, and I clarified the 2035 date in 2015 as well, and so it has remained over the five years since. Clearly, it is not fluid to my mind at all, but nor is it set in stone. Nothing compels the conventional channels to close. It is simply what I believe will happen. You may all disagree, and that’s fine.

But to argue the toss about a minor misunderstanding in 2015, which was fairly quickly clarified, is just obsessive. It’s 2020 now, for God’s sake!

---------- Post added at 19:41 ---------- Previous post was at 19:40 ----------

You will not find any evidence to the contrary, Den.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I expect in 2035 they will have found a cure for baldness, colour-blindness, and ingrown toenails.

That’s the joy of forecasting something a generation away on a small forum - no one’s ever going to pick you up on it...

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Well, normally I'd agree, but Old Boy tends to post a new, identical (apart from the timescale) thread every year drawing attention to his shifts.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

If there was a post stating 2035 as your predicted year for the end of linear TV, posted before the post Chris found with 2025 in it, then I think your suggestion that 2025 was the date of far better broadband being available might convince.

But because no one has yet unearthed such a post including you, I am sure you will understand why many of us are healthy sceptics on the issue.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Hello Old Boy. I will not be returning very often, you will be pleased to know. In terms of what happened to, me well I got married and brought a house and much to my own amazement, joined SKY!! despite all my bad experiences with them in the past. As a result, I felt it was wrong of me to comment on a Virgin Media forum. Although I could not resist looking to see what the latest on your thoughts on this subject were. it appears I can not resist replying either.

If Netflix want to release viewing figures, it will be very interesting. I have said before Netflix et al, are just replacing DVD's in terms of people not watching linear TV. Sky etc know their viewing figures and will charge advertisers accordingly. Netflix et al will either have succumb to adverts or hike their prices up massively, or and, I am sure you have seen Netflix have, over the years, started selling shows (Orange Is The New Black plus a couple of smaller shows) to linear channels too. Selling shows to linear channels is probably the best way for them to keep there subscription prices down.

To my mind Netflix et al have the following options to survive - Sell content to linear channels, Sell content to their VOD competitors, Put prices up more (look at how much BT Sports costs now compared to when they started) or go to advertising?

What would you do if you were in charge of Netflix? How are you paying off your massive debt, keeping customer costs down without advertising (although, technically, they are advertising through the backdoor by selling The Home Edit products exclusively with John Lewis and Partners) and still producing enough original content to keep justifying the cost you charge by the year "2035" let alone by 2025 - which we all know was your original date?

Please give us your choice. It is your argument that VOD will take over and kill linear. How do you, personally, see it happening when subscribers even out, there is no more real growth, the creditors stop the cash and their debts continue to need to be repaid?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Fill your boots.


https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/new...-october-2020/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I think it'd be interesting to see the stats at a more granular level.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Wow. What an utterly pointless way to measure viewer stats. Wont worry about looking for Netflix viewing figures in future.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

https://variety.com/2020/film/global...st-1234824339/

Netflix are testing a linear channel on their platform!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Epic quote from Netflix spokesman:

to the surprise of (almost) nobody in this thread.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Quoting Victor Meldrew's famous catchphrase "I don't believe it!!:D:D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I'm sure that means we can again extend the predicted demise of linear telly by another ten years, this time to 2045. ;)

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I, for one, am stunned that they’re willing to spend the huge tens of thousands a year it costs to operate a linear channel.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Now that’s funny, jfman! :D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

:tu::D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I was pleased to hear that things have gone well for you since you last contributed to these forums, Harry.

I agree that you can see Netflix as simply replacing the DVDs, but I have always thought that streaming was so much better as it avoided having to find storage space for the physical content, and trying to find that DVD you were looking for was always a pain!

If you were a regular purchaser of DVDs, or you if you preferred to rent them out, Netflix is so much cheaper. I think I must be watching more TV series via Netflix now than from my recordings (I watch very little live, as you may recall).

As for Netflix’s viability and what I would do, I agree with their idea of building up the original content first - that is important, because content is king. It is why Netflix is the most popular of all the streaming services.

There will come a point at which Netflix will be able to scale down on the number of new commissions it makes because they will have such a quantity of good stuff in their library, it would take years for anyone to watch all the programmes that appealed to them. This would reduce the current levels of expenditure needed, and all the time, as Netflix extends worldwide, it will be picking up new subscriptions.

There are two other things I would do about the content. First, I would make some of the older stuff available to other providers to generate a further income stream. Secondly, I would enable all customers to be able to see a huge range of additional content belonging to third parties on a PPV basis. Accordingly, Netflix could be a one-stop shop for any programme that subscribers wanted to watch. There could be additional subscription tiers enabling viewers to watch a limited number of those PPV shows in a month as an alternative for paying extra for each view.

I think Netflix has a big advantage over most other forms of viewing, not only because of the amount of original content, but also because it is free of advertising. However, I do think that Netflix should think about making lower packages available with perhaps more limited choices but with advertising included. Under no circumstances should they introduce advertising slots to their top subscription packages, and the CEO is on record as having agreed with that principle. However, if they wanted to introduce sponsors for their titles, I would not object to that - it would be a nice little earner without disrupting the viewer’s evening.

Another source of useful income could be established by setting up a music option. They could have a ‘live’ channel with continuous music videos, they could have videos of concerts and of the artists themselves. They could introduce an app, very much like Amazon Music or YouTube Music, that you could play on any suitable device and in your car. I think there is plenty of room to expand beyond what we know and love Netflix for at the moment. Perhaps Netflix could have their own set top boxes as well.

In short, there are lots of options open to Netflix to increase revenue and to start reducing their debt. I dare say there is plenty of thinking outside the box going on at present in their offices.

I was disappointed by your cheap reference to the 2025 date when ever since that disputed post, since 2015, in fact, I have been consistently stating that I believe that by 2035 the existing broadcast channels will have been superseded by IPTV. I said that over 5 years ago now, and I am still saying that today. I believe that our conventional method of transmitter broadcasts will make way for 5G+ and that the abolition of the licence fee for a subscription-based model will ensure that the BBC moves to IPTV not long after the next 10-year review of the licence fee. The commercial channels will all go the same way as viewer loyalty gradually transfers to the streamers and become too expensive to operate with diminishing advertising revenue. I am well aware that others have different views, but that is mine.

Feel free to disagree - this is a discussion group, after all!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

You really must enjoy trawling the web for those images, Hugh.:D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

This will never happen. It can never happen. It is Netflix’s core strategy to be a commissioner of original content. This is the case because it realised long ago that simply being a video library would never appeal to enough people to keep them subscribing. They can no more stop commissioning original content than the BBC can - and significantly reducing commissioning would be tantamount to the same thing.

If reduced original commissions risks losing them long term subscribers, then farming out their older material to other distributors risks their ability to attract new ones. Nobody gets Netflix to watch the entire back catalogue - there’s too broad a range of material to be of interest to any one person (which is entirely how it’s meant to be). But if you let people watch your older material without subscribing to Netflix, why would they then subscribe to Netflix?

Unlike the BBC and ITV, which are designed around mostly one-time broadcast of original content, Netflix’s lack of a linear schedule means the only way it can flesh out its offering is by always having its entire catalogue available at all times.

Apple TV and Amazon Prime Video already do exactly this. Other similar platforms specialise in only offering PPV content. It’s a crowded market and entering it would muddy Netflix’s brand positioning. At present it is very clear what you get with Netflix. I doubt they could make enough extra money to justify the upheaval.

I think it quite likely that the existing tiers will increase in cost to a certain point, and then a cheaper, ad-supported tier will come in at the base.

Which would be a linear channel. Hallelujah, the sinner repents :rofl:


As above, a crowded market already well served by Apple and Amazon and, most notably in this sector, Spotify. Breaking in to that would require a lot of effort and investment Netflix can ill-afford right now.

You are literally the only person regularly contributing to this thread that thinks this is what you originally said. That’s why Harry repeated it, it’s why I repeat it from time to time, and it’s why it’s never going away.

If forced to operate on commercial terms the BBC would simply sell off its uneconomic divisions and then support itself with advertising. There’s no reason for it to go behind a paywall. ITV doesn’t; nor does Channel 4 or Five. It is doubtful that a law could be successfully drafted and passed that could compel the BBC to do so either. As a private company it would be free to choose how to cover the costs of its services.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

https://media.tenor.com/images/6ae21...d692/tenor.gif

;)

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Interesting read this one. Genuinely.

You’ve identified the compelling sell of Netflix. Replacing DVD rentals. Yet, applying their success there to extrapolate that into automatic success in a further market - pay-tv. Netflix adding PPV tiers is a crazy idea - the closer they get to the pricing of incumbents in the pay-tv market the less competitive their offering is.

5G operators have no interest in the UHF spectrum. It doesn’t deliver the high speeds that will define 5G above 4G or 3G. Equally - the dramatic shift to working from home that is inevitable from the Coronavirus outbreak is going to shift data demand off of the mobile networks, out of cities and onto domestic broadband connections and into towns and villages.

Entering the subscription music market was addressed by Chris, so I won’t add to that.

You’ve raised the prospect of reducing their debt. A novel idea in the venture capital markets of course. I was listening to a podcast the other day where they mentioned how Uber had billions pumped into it to cover losses on a regular basis. Where is it reducing costs or offering something that the taxi cab/private hire market doesn’t? Workers rights and tax liabilities. Less regulation. It looks like that model will fail costing investors money that will never be recouped.

It brings me to what is Netflix’s compelling offer that anyone else - a streamer or otherwise - couldn’t replicate without £20bn of debt to go with?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Some interesting figures from this site

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...etflix/revenue

Netflix revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2020 was $6.436B, a 22.7% increase year-over-year.

Netflix gross profit for the twelve months ending September 30, 2020 was $9.242B, a 28.93% increase year-over-year.

Netflix EBITDA for the twelve months ending September 30, 2020 was $14.605B, a 31.36% increase year-over-year.

Netflix net income for the twelve months ending September 30, 2020 was $2.806B, a 98.48% increase year-over-year.

Netflix total assets for the quarter ending September 30, 2020 were $38.623B, a 24.82% increase year-over-year.

Netflix long term debt for the quarter ending September 30, 2020 was $15.548B, a 25.12% increase year-over-year.

Netflix total liabilities for the quarter ending September 30, 2020 were $28.289B, a 17.48% increase year-over-year.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Ah EBITDA. The venture capitalists dream metric.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

£20bn of debt is probably a barrier to others replicating Netflix's offering. Another is its strong internationalsim. Rolling out internationally and speedily to avoid me-toos establishing themselves in key countries is a sensible move. As long as it's profitable apart from long-term debt it will be fine. That can be removed via rights issues, sale to another company or worst case scenario, Chapter 11.
It has a narrow one-size-fits-all model, a bit like Wetherspoons, so geographical breadth becomes key here. Confusing this model and adding extra cost to it with PPV and unprofitable music streaming won't add anything.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The shift towards streamers to view original shows has increased substantially. If this trend continues, it will be a major worry for our TV channels. Mind you, the dearth of good material now being shown on those channels with the lack of filming during the pandemic emergency isn’t helping.

https://www.rapidtvnews.com/20201108...tional-tv.html