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-   -   [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33700839)

Damien 16-04-2016 08:34
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832683)
What I don't understand is why mortgages will go up. Surely if things are going to be as gloomy as the Remain predict, Interest Rates will remain low to sustain the economy. I also can't see how on earth the building trade will be effected by a Brexit? Talk about desperation and use of Project Fear to its max! I also detect fear in the Remain Campaign that Brexit may actually win which is why they are resorting to these tactics.
I don't believe the mortgage one although the logic is that the price of sterling will drop: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...rge-osborne-eu

Remain are going to empathise the fear angle all campaign. They want to underline that it's a risk so when people go into the booth they'll be thinking 'well, it is a risk' and hope that will sway them. Polling suggests that if Brexit is perceived to be a danger then Remain will win. They can't let any suggestion that everything will be fine cut into their campaign.

Bircho 16-04-2016 09:07
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35832605)
Although the ability for EU citizens can be difficult to cope with by itself, the bigger problem is what they are entitled to once they come over. Our rights to housing, NHS, benefits, etc were created on the basis of a known UK population level. Once you have millions more able to flood in and claim, the system doesn't work. You have the absurd situation where a Czech couple can come over with 22 of their children and grandchildren and all suddenly be eligible for housing, benefits, translators, etc. Bringing no capital with them to contribute, and all not working. When it was smaller numbers from countries like France and Germany and was more of a two way exchange of people, the system could cope. It may be an extreme example, but consider what would happen if the government of North Korea was to collapse. South Korea would be deluged with people.

Any EU directives have to be passed as UK laws, so saying that the EU was responsible for this that and the other is nonsense. The UK is able to pass most of those laws all by itself. Eg the UK started laws on paid holiday leave as far back as 1871.
Never have so many attempts to be factual be so wrong in so many understated ways. And all in two paragraphs.

No they are not entitled to any benefits. The effect of EU immigration on the UK is small compared to non EU immigration - and in or out of the EU that will not change.

Workers rights - I think you will find UK laws on paid holidays were introduced in the 1930s and it gave the right to SEVEN paid holidays per year. This was the case until the 1970s when it was amended to EIGHT. It was only the introduction of the EU social charter in the late 1990s (opposed by the UK Government at the time as explained on previous threads) that brought it up to TWENTY and then later increased to 28 by the Labour Government in late noughties. Fact is, without the EU social chapter, the Law would never have been introduced by any of this countries Governments.

---------- Post added at 09:03 ---------- Previous post was at 08:59 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832683)
What I don't understand is why mortgages will go up. Surely if things are going to be as gloomy as the Remain predict, Interest Rates will remain low to sustain the economy. I also can't see how on earth the building trade will be effected by a Brexit? Talk about desperation and use of Project Fear to its max! I also detect fear in the Remain Campaign that Brexit may actually win which is why they are resorting to these tactics.
As we we import more than we export, the potential lack of free trade will drive up the costs of both imports and exports which in turn will drive up inflation. To control this, interests rates will need to rise which means that mortgages and other borrowing costs will increase. Bit more complex than this but that is the simplistic version!

---------- Post added at 09:07 ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35832686)
I don't believe the mortgage one although the logic is that the price of sterling will drop: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...rge-osborne-eu

Remain are going to empathise the fear angle all campaign. They want to underline that it's a risk so when people go into the booth they'll be thinking 'well, it is a risk' and hope that will sway them. Polling suggests that if Brexit is perceived to be a danger then Remain will win. They can't let any suggestion that everything will be fine cut into their campaign.
And think there lies the crux of the out campaigns problem. They need show how things will be fine if we were to leave to convince the middle ground. I can see nothing to show that things will be fine - all I can see is a lot of upheaval and personally, I find it strange that people would be willing to take what is a pretty big risk. But please, convince me otherwise.

papa smurf 16-04-2016 09:11
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832683)
What I don't understand is why mortgages will go up. Surely if things are going to be as gloomy as the Remain predict, Interest Rates will remain low to sustain the economy. I also can't see how on earth the building trade will be effected by a Brexit? Talk about desperation and use of Project Fear to its max! I also detect fear in the Remain Campaign that Brexit may actually win which is why they are resorting to these tactics.

---------- Post added at 08:24 ---------- Previous post was at 08:20 ----------



Have to agree with Boris. Someone should ask Obama when he's here if he is prepared to give up some American Sovereignty. Maybe some reporter will.
well obviously oz/- bomber and the lads from auf wiedersehen pet will be sent home .

Mr K 16-04-2016 10:21
Hug a Brit !!
 
:Dhttp://www.politico.eu/article/hug-a...keep-uk-in-eu/
A fantastic initiative for Europeans to hug a Brit and get their vote. A hug from a young female Swede would certainly confirm my remain vote ;)

Ignitionnet 16-04-2016 10:29
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
This should've been the leaflet's cover.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/04/18.jpg

Big Brian 16-04-2016 11:02
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35832686)
I don't believe the mortgage one although the logic is that the price of sterling will drop: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...rge-osborne-eu

Remain are going to empathise the fear angle all campaign. They want to underline that it's a risk so when people go into the booth they'll be thinking 'well, it is a risk' and hope that will sway them. Polling suggests that if Brexit is perceived to be a danger then Remain will win. They can't let any suggestion that everything will be fine cut into their campaign.
I don't think anyone on the Leave side is suggesting everything will be fine. There are bound to be teething problems as with all new ventures. I'm under no illusions that things may be 'difficult' at first but the longer term prospects of a Brexit will make it worthwhile. We have austerity now so maybe a couple more years of it is what we will need to sustain the economy - a price worth paying in my opinion.

---------- Post added at 10:57 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------

Never have so many attempts to be factual be so wrong in so many understated ways. And all in two paragraphs.

No they are not entitled to any benefits. The effect of EU immigration on the UK is small compared to non EU immigration - and in or out of the EU that will not change.

I don't think it will be effected much either but the point is that we will control it, not the EU and the only way to get immigration down from both areas is to leave the EU.

---------- Post added at 11:02 ---------- Previous post was at 10:57 ----------

As we we import more than we export, the potential lack of free trade will drive up the costs of both imports and exports which in turn will drive up inflation. To control this, interests rates will need to rise which means that mortgages and other borrowing costs will increase. Bit more complex than this but that is the simplistic version!

Isn't the whole point of leaving the EU to reverse that? Sorry I don't agree with this costing more for the simple reason that the EU nations will want to trade still and will not make it that difficult. We would return to the way it worked before we joined the Common Market. We traded well enough with them then so why not now? I see shades of what happened when Scotland and England united here. The English Banned Scotland from trading with the Colonies so we went bankrupt and had no choice. Nah can't see the EU doing that really.

Sirius 16-04-2016 11:09
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35832699)
This should've been the leaflet's cover.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/04/18.jpg
Excellent :tu:

Vote NO

Bircho 16-04-2016 11:10
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832704)

Sorry I don't agree with this costing more for the simple reason that the EU nations will want to trade still and will not make it that difficult. We would return to the way it worked before we joined the Common Market. We traded well enough with them then so why not now? I see shades of what happened when Scotland and England united here. The English Banned Scotland from trading with the Colonies so we went bankrupt and had no choice. Nah can't see the EU doing that really.
But the whole point is there is no guarantee. The UK accounts for around 8% of the rest of the EUs exports, but the EU accounts for 45% of our exports. But we rely on the EU for 55% of our imports. They have the strong negotiating hand but if they say yes, ok, we'll let you have free trade but in return for free movement (ala Switzerland and Norway) then what's the point in coming out? It is all about immigration after all isn't it this vote? And if they say, ok, we'll trade but there will be tariffs (as per most of the rest of their trade agreements but there are also restrictions on what they can trade) then prices will be going up. Even a 4% tariff added to the currency slide and it will have a big effect on inflation and our ability to trade.

Ignitionnet 16-04-2016 11:13
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832704)
As we we import more than we export, the potential lack of free trade will drive up the costs of both imports and exports which in turn will drive up inflation. To control this, interests rates will need to rise which means that mortgages and other borrowing costs will increase. Bit more complex than this but that is the simplistic version!
Various governments have been having currency wars for the past few years in an attempt to cheapen their exports.

It should be noted that we import more than we export with regards to the European Union only. We have a positive current account with the rest of the world. Upon leaving the EU we would no longer be subject to the Common Customs Tariff which would reduce the cost of imports from outside the EU.

With those in mind I'd suggest the impact of Brexit is not black and white. There are far too many variables.

I'm sure if I could be bothered it wouldn't be hard to find plenty of 'experts' forecasting the UK's doom if we failed to join the Euro. The past few years seem to have tarnished the reputation of economics as a field in no small part because most economists don't seem to know backside from elbow when exposed to how things work outside of the classroom.

Taf 16-04-2016 11:40
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
The "evolution" of the European Experiment from trading partners to a near-federal superstate governing many aspects of our lives is what I wholly object to. Especially when unelected persons and bodies take more and more power to expand it further.

It's a political and bureaucratic wet dream, often unaccountable and uncontrolled.

As with many friends on the continent, I will vote "out" as soon as I get the chance.

Hugh 16-04-2016 11:53
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
1 Attachment(s)
Well, with such beloved politicians as Gove, Farage, IDS, Gorgeous George, et al, all for Brexit, what's not to support...;)

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...2&d=1460803897

Bircho 16-04-2016 13:23
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35832710)
Various governments have been having currency wars for the past few years in an attempt to cheapen their exports.

It should be noted that we import more than we export with regards to the European Union only. We have a positive current account with the rest of the world. Upon leaving the EU we would no longer be subject to the Common Customs Tariff which would reduce the cost of imports from outside the EU.

With those in mind I'd suggest the impact of Brexit is not black and white. There are far too many variables.

I'm sure if I could be bothered it wouldn't be hard to find plenty of 'experts' forecasting the UK's doom if we failed to join the Euro. The past few years seem to have tarnished the reputation of economics as a field in no small part because most economists don't seem to know backside from elbow when exposed to how things work outside of the classroom.
Except that 75% of our imports come from the EU and 25% from the rest of the world. Remember our exports to the EU is mainly services and in this sector we run a surplus of around £15 billion.

Hugh 16-04-2016 14:12
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35832727)
Except that 75% of our imports come from the EU and 25% from the rest of the world. Remember our exports to the EU is mainly services and in this sector we run a surplus of around £15 billion.
http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/20...m-page-95.html

Quote:
The proportion of total exports to the EU was 46 per cent in February 2016. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 38 per cent to 48 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU was 55 per cent in February 2016. Over the same period, this has ranged between 51 per cent and 55 per cent.

pip08456 16-04-2016 14:38
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
From 2005: The EU
Introduction
A first-time visitor to Europe would soon realize that something called the
European Union (EU) exists but might not understand exactly what it is.
Signs at the airport in an EU member state (by far the majority of European states) would direct the visitor into the “Non-EU” line for inspection by national immigration officers (there are no EU immigration officers).

Once finished with border formalities, the visitor would need to change money. In twelve of the EU’s twenty-five member states the visitor would receive euro notes and coins but in the other member states would receive national currency.

Traveling around the country, the visitor would see the distinctive EU
flag (a circle of twelve gold stars set against a deep blue background) promi-
nently displayed. In the EU’s poorer regions, the visitor would notice signs adorned with the EU flag, proudly proclaiming that various infrastructural projects were being funded in part by the EU.

Staying within the territory of the EU, the visitor would be able to travel unimpeded across some, but not all, national borders.

A curious and discerning visitor would discover that national political
systems are alive and well in the EU, but that there is a complementary political system centered on Brussels, meaning in this case not the political capital of Belgium but the locus of EU policymaking.

National governments, parliaments, courts, and other bodies participate in the EU system, as do separate EU institutions such as the European Commission and the European Parliament. Further inquiry would reveal that a complex system of EU governance produces rules and regulations covering a host of policy areas ranging from agriculture to antitrust, the environment, immigration, and international development.

The visitor would soon realize that there is considerable variation
in the applicability and implementation of EU policy among the member
states

Introduction
Table 0.3 Joining the EU: What Needs to Be Negotiated
Chapter 1:
Free Movement of Goods
Chapter 2:
Free Movement for Persons
Chapter 3:
Freedom to Provide Services
Chapter 4:
Free Movement of Capital
Chapter 5:
Company Law
Chapter 6:
Competition Policy
Chapter 7:
Agriculture
Chapter 8:
Fisheries
Chapter 9:
Transport Policy
Chapter 10:
Taxation
Chapter 11:
Economic and Monetary Union
Chapter 12:
Statistics
Chapter 13:
Social Policy
Chapter 14:
Energy
Chapter 15:
Industrial Policy
Chapter 16:
Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
Chapter 17:
Science and Research
Chapter 18:
Education and Training
Chapter 19:
Telecommunications and Information
Chapter 20:
Culture and Audiovisual Policy
Chapter 21:
Regional Policy and Coordination
Chapter 22:
Environment
Chapter 23:
Consumers and Health Protection
Chapter 24:
Justice and Home Affairs
Chapter 25:
Customs Union
Chapter 26:
External Relations
Chapter 27:
Common Foreign and Security Policy
Chapter 28:
Financial Control
Chapter 29:
Finance and Budgetary Provisions
Chapter 30:
Institutions
Chapter 31:
Other

source https://www.rienner.com/uploads/47e029fe2f724.pdf

Big Brian 16-04-2016 14:49
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35832709)
But the whole point is there is no guarantee. The UK accounts for around 8% of the rest of the EUs exports, but the EU accounts for 45% of our exports. But we rely on the EU for 55% of our imports. They have the strong negotiating hand but if they say yes, ok, we'll let you have free trade but in return for free movement (ala Switzerland and Norway) then what's the point in coming out? It is all about immigration after all isn't it this vote? And if they say, ok, we'll trade but there will be tariffs (as per most of the rest of their trade agreements but there are also restrictions on what they can trade) then prices will be going up. Even a 4% tariff added to the currency slide and it will have a big effect on inflation and our ability to trade.
The point in coming out is we control our interests. If they want free movement they are going to have to do better than those deals

Taf 16-04-2016 17:21
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...a9&oe=57BF3212

Damien 16-04-2016 17:57
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832736)
The point in coming out is we control our interests. If they want free movement they are going to have to do better than those deals
What's better than direct access to the single market? Not sure what deal you expect to get.

Big Brian 16-04-2016 18:13
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35832772)
What's better than direct access to the single market? Not sure what deal you expect to get.
A deal that will allow us to dictate the terms preferably without the freedom of movement part so we can control our own immigration.

Damien 16-04-2016 18:30
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832774)
A deal that will allow us to dictate the terms preferably without the freedom of movement part so we can control our own immigration.
I think you're going to be in for a shock when the world doesn't roll over to our demands. The idea all these Eurocrats people have been telling us for years are working against our interests will suddenly be willing to help us out is a bit of an illusions. I think we'll get a deal but it will be worse than what we have now especially if we don't have freedom of movement in there.
  1. Many countries in the EU do not have a trade surplus with us and they all have to vote Yes for a deal to be done
  2. If Britain gets a better deal out of the EU than inside it then everybody will be doing it
  3. Dublin, Berlin and Paris will all be looking to steal some of our services sector

We have full access to the single market at the moment. That will probably be restricted and that alone can hit the economy.

Siemens and BMW have also said that the single market helps their sectors: http://eandt.theiet.org/news/2016/ma...nst-brexit.cfm

Quote:
BMW’s Ian Robertson, a member of its managing board, echoed Maier’s comments saying that the EU allows freedom of movement for the car-maker’s components, cars and engineers, but that a British exit would create restrictions that would give those countries that remained in the Union distinct advantages.

“That’s one off the primary reasons that we believe it is much more positive for the UK to remain a strong and robust member of a reformed European Union,” he said.

“If the UK were to leave the Union, we would still have to abide by all the laws and legislation that apply within it because we would still move and sell our products around the EU.”

Ignitionnet 16-04-2016 19:16
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35832727)
Except that 75% of our imports come from the EU and 25% from the rest of the world. Remember our exports to the EU is mainly services and in this sector we run a surplus of around £15 billion.
Yikes. During today we've gone from 55% of our imports coming from the EU to 75%.

Given there are no tariffs on services it's pretty good that our exports to them are largely these, so that's comforting.

They can't arbitrarily slap tariffs on us. We would default to Most Favoured Nation status within the WTO. We'd be subject, at worst, to the same Common Customs Tariff as everywhere else.

Obviously with 2 years of negotiation before exit we'd have ample opportunity for our market to begin to work with suppliers outside the EU. Outside of the CCT there wouldn't be large tariffs being placed on goods like foods and solar panels in order to protect French farmers or German manufacturers.

It's really not as simple as doom and gloom, neither would it be a smooth and painless transition. It's not beyond the wit of man to get it done.

EDIT: All this said I should mention that if people think we're not going to negotiate free movement or something basically indistinguishable from it post-Brexit as part of a deal you're mental. It's not about that for me and I'm fine with it.

Osem 16-04-2016 19:21
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
I hope all the rabid (and not so rabid) Cameron haters around are going to allow their intense dislike to drive them to vote out. We're told he's extremely unpopular so surely they have no reason not take this opportunity to stuff it to him, get us out of the EU madhouse and get him out of office.

:D

Mr K 16-04-2016 20:01
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35832787)
I hope all the rabid (and not so rabid) Cameron haters around are going to allow their intense dislike to drive them to vote out. We're told he's extremely unpopular so surely they have no reason not take this opportunity to stuff it to him, get us out of the EU madhouse and get him out of office.

:D
Yes, it is a dilemma. No matter how much I dislike the guy and his divided party, the issue is much bigger than Cameron and the Tories

The alternative to him, in the event of Brexit would be a nightmare further swing to the right, with a Boris/Liam Fox administration (plus the ensuing economic chaos). The rich would be protected but everyone else will suffer badly. They'd take full advantage of workers rights being swept away.

Head rules my heart I'm afraid.

Ramrod 16-04-2016 21:41
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35832710)

It should be noted that we import more than we export with regards to the European Union only. We have a positive current account with the rest of the world. Upon leaving the EU we would no longer be subject to the Common Customs Tariff which would reduce the cost of imports from outside the EU..
Worth repeating.....

Ignitionnet 16-04-2016 23:19
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35832811)
Worth repeating.....
As is

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35832786)
All this said I should mention that if people think we're not going to negotiate free movement or something basically indistinguishable from it post-Brexit as part of a deal you're mental. It's not about that for me and I'm fine with it.
We wouldn't countenance being in Schengen however there is no reason to think that, with that and the odd other exception, the most distant relationship we have with the EU would be much different from that the Swiss have.

Dan Hannan puts the case better than I could. It's about democracy.

Pierre 16-04-2016 23:26
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Bored of it all.

Also, being fairly politically engaged as I am, I don't want to listen to politicians that most likely know less about all the issues than I do.

I don't understand why people think politicians somehow are experts on this, they're not.

Ignore the politicians, seek out the facts away from the " official" campaigns.

I'm still 50/50.

Nothing either campaign puts out will affect my decision.

Big Brian 17-04-2016 08:49
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35832780)
I think you're going to be in for a shock when the world doesn't roll over to our demands. The idea all these Eurocrats people have been telling us for years are working against our interests will suddenly be willing to help us out is a bit of an illusions. I think we'll get a deal but it will be worse than what we have now especially if we don't have freedom of movement in there.
  1. Many countries in the EU do not have a trade surplus with us and they all have to vote Yes for a deal to be done
  2. If Britain gets a better deal out of the EU than inside it then everybody will be doing it
  3. Dublin, Berlin and Paris will all be looking to steal some of our services sector

We have full access to the single market at the moment. That will probably be restricted and that alone can hit the economy.

Siemens and BMW have also said that the single market helps their sectors: http://eandt.theiet.org/news/2016/ma...nst-brexit.cfm
What we lose in trade with the EU can more than likely be made up in trade with non-EU Countries. Though your argument is fair it is not a reason for anyone to change their vote.

papa smurf 17-04-2016 09:21
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832860)
What we lose in trade with the EU can more than likely be made up in trade with non-EU Countries. Though your argument is fair it is not a reason for anyone to change their vote.
just had a little tot up of what ive got around me .

car-korean
motorcycle- japanese
liquide fuel heating - china
smart phone-china
pc -china
tv- china
oven i,m cooking the chicken in -china
solid fuel stove-russia

and on and on and on .

every thing for lunch is from Lincolnshire with the exception of the broccoli which is from spain .

Big Brian 17-04-2016 09:50
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35832786)
Yikes. During today we've gone from 55% of our imports coming from the EU to 75%.

Given there are no tariffs on services it's pretty good that our exports to them are largely these, so that's comforting.

They can't arbitrarily slap tariffs on us. We would default to Most Favoured Nation status within the WTO. We'd be subject, at worst, to the same Common Customs Tariff as everywhere else.

Obviously with 2 years of negotiation before exit we'd have ample opportunity for our market to begin to work with suppliers outside the EU. Outside of the CCT there wouldn't be large tariffs being placed on goods like foods and solar panels in order to protect French farmers or German manufacturers.

It's really not as simple as doom and gloom, neither would it be a smooth and painless transition. It's not beyond the wit of man to get it done.

EDIT: All this said I should mention that if people think we're not going to negotiate free movement or something basically indistinguishable from it post-Brexit as part of a deal you're mental. It's not about that for me and I'm fine with it.
The Single Market is NOT that important. Vote Leave:

Britain's main export market is no longer the EU

Britain is exporting more goods to countries outside the European Union than to countries inside for the first time since the UK joined the Common Market in the 1970s, official statistics show. And this comes from what I call The Torygraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...er-the-EU.html

---------- Post added at 09:50 ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35832829)
Bored of it all.

Also, being fairly politically engaged as I am, I don't want to listen to politicians that most likely know less about all the issues than I do.

I don't understand why people think politicians somehow are experts on this, they're not.

Ignore the politicians, seek out the facts away from the " official" campaigns.

I'm still 50/50.

Nothing either campaign puts out will affect my decision.
I listen to what they have to say and sometimes it makes my day. Most of them should change career and become stand-up comics but they do not and never have influenced my vote. Like you I consider myself politically savvy since the age of 16 and make my own mind up. The Single Market in my honest opinion is not a good enough reason to vote to stay in the EU. See my post from the Telegraph. I scour the net looking for facts to back up my statements on here unlike some who seem to spout the same garbage the In or Out Campaigns feed them. I agree wholeheartedly with you on this.

Hugh 17-04-2016 09:57
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832869)
The Single Market is NOT that important. Vote Leave:

Britain's main export market is no longer the EU

Britain is exporting more goods to countries outside the European Union than to countries inside for the first time since the UK joined the Common Market in the 1970s, official statistics show. And this comes from what I call The Torygraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...er-the-EU.html

---------- Post added at 09:50 ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 ----------



I listen to what they have to say and sometimes it makes my day. Most of them should change career and become stand-up comics but they do not and never have influenced my vote. Like you I consider myself politically savvy since the age of 16 and make my own mind up. The Single Market in my honest opinion is not a good enough reason to vote to stay in the EU. See my post from the Telegraph. I scour the net looking for facts to back up my statements on here unlike some who seem to spout the same garbage the In or Out Campaigns feed them. I agree wholeheartedly with you on this.
Your Telegraph link is from nearly 4 years ago, for March-May 2012.

Here are some more recent stats, which support your premise.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statisti...n-EU_Data.aspx

Big Brian 17-04-2016 09:58
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35832862)
just had a little tot up of what ive got around me .

car-korean
motorcycle- japanese
liquide fuel heating - china
smart phone-china
pc -china
tv- china
oven i,m cooking the chicken in -china
solid fuel stove-russia

and on and on and on .

every thing for lunch is from Lincolnshire with the exception of the broccoli which is from spain .
Indeed. I can't thing of anything in my house that comes from the EU. If I shop online for things I sometimes use a Chinese site. It takes a while to get here but the price is right. Can't understand how they do it TBH. I got a watch from said site that cost £3. It would have cost more like £50 in the EU.

Taf 17-04-2016 11:21
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
TTIP, or at least true understanding of the secret negotiations that are going on between the USA and EU mandarins, would really put a spanner in the works of the pro-EU groups.

The biggest threat to us in the UK since all-out war. And a big reason why the USA wants us to stay part of the EU.

Big Brian 17-04-2016 12:43
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35832872)
Your Telegraph link is from nearly 4 years ago, for March-May 2012.

Here are some more recent stats, which support your premise.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statisti...n-EU_Data.aspx
My apologies for that. Will teach me to look at the date.

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:40 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Taf (Post 35832891)
TTIP, or at least true understanding of the secret negotiations that are going on between the USA and EU mandarins, would really put a spanner in the works of the pro-EU groups.

The biggest threat to us in the UK since all-out war. And a big reason why the USA wants us to stay part of the EU.
I think the USA have a damn cheek getting involved when they themselves wouldn't do any of the things the EU expects us to do.

Osem 17-04-2016 13:21
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taf (Post 35832891)
TTIP, or at least true understanding of the secret negotiations that are going on between the USA and EU mandarins, would really put a spanner in the works of the pro-EU groups.

The biggest threat to us in the UK since all-out war. And a big reason why the USA wants us to stay part of the EU.
I tend to think that when the US tells us we should do something it's mainly because it best suits their long term goals, not necessarily ours. Those things are not mutually exclusive of course but the 'special relationship' stuff is the sort of guff you hear when American VIP's visit the UK and tell us how it's their favourite place, blah, blah, blah before heading off to Paris and telling them exactly the same thing.

It's guff, designed to make us feel better and them $$$'s and you can bet that if the UK getting out of the EU better suited the US, they'd soon tell us. Obama has no love of the UK so his 'advice' ought to be treated with scepticism.

With the Hispanic influence in the US growing rapidly, I don't see the UK and US getting any closer politically.

Bircho 17-04-2016 21:26
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832869)
The Single Market is NOT that important. Vote Leave:
So around 45% of our exports is not that important. Which business do you run?

One of the few things that the Out campaigners can solidly say is that either we will have a free market with the EU but with that will come freedom of movement and other EU rules (so no point in pulling out as this is what most people seem to object to) or we will be trading with the EU with tariffs - which will mean we cannot trade in everything and given that 50% of our exports to the EU are in services which are the first things that we are most likely not to be able to trade. The remainder will have a charge of at least 4% which along with currency issues may just take the competitive edge of our exports.

Circa £12 billion is some market to try and find elsewhere in the world.

Chris 17-04-2016 22:01
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
As an operator in that 60% of the economy that doesn't export or import anything, I couldn't care less if we continue to follow some single market rules post Brexit - because those rules can only be made to apply to goods and services that are exported to the single market. They cannot be made to apply to goods and services traded domestically. As a full member of the EU, all the rules apply to all businesses, even if they never trade with another EU country.

Mr K 17-04-2016 22:21
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-votes-to-l/
Billions of cuts to the NHS and schools as punishment if you don't vote the right way warns George. Sounds right up his street, not sure why he isn't pro- Brexit....

papa smurf 17-04-2016 22:29
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35833014)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-votes-to-l/
Billions of cuts to the NHS and schools as punishment if you don't vote the right way warns George. Sounds right up his street, not sure why he isn't pro- Brexit....
you won't need to worry about George or Dave after brexit they will just be unemployment stats.

techguyone 18-04-2016 11:05
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Dave's already said he's not running for another term, he might quite like to go after the vote regardless of how it goes, bit like Blair & Brown, poor sap left behind cops the blame.

denphone 18-04-2016 13:29
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35833014)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-votes-to-l/
Billions of cuts to the NHS and schools as punishment if you don't vote the right way warns George. Sounds right up his street, not sure why he isn't pro- Brexit....
He say householders will be £4.300 worse off a year but like many of his other figures he seems to pluck figures out from nowhere so l wonder what the Brexit side will counter with now as they will probably come out with some pie in the sky claims as well one suspects.

Big Brian 18-04-2016 13:51
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35833014)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-votes-to-l/
Billions of cuts to the NHS and schools as punishment if you don't vote the right way warns George. Sounds right up his street, not sure why he isn't pro- Brexit....
Codswallop! Pro EU garbage. I wasn't aware the EU contributed to the NHS. Just like the crap we'll all be four grand worse off by 2030 if we leave the EU. How do they know when all their other predictions have been wrong? We'll be in the black by 2015. WRONG! OK by 2017: WRONG! OK by the end of the Parliament: WRONG!! The economy will grow by 3.5% per year till 2020: Oops WRONG!!

pip08456 18-04-2016 14:06
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
I expected nothing less from the proEU camp. There will be more scaremongering to come no doubt the Brexit side will do it as well. It is expected of politicians, we should be used to it.

Recently the skeleton of the first politician was discovered.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/04/14.jpg

Osem 18-04-2016 14:13
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Ignore the figures bring quoted and ask yourselves if you want to be part of 'ever closer union', not only more of the same but 'ever closer union', embracing nations like Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro for example. If we're struggling to cope with massive migration now, how much worse will it be when these poorer countries (and others) eventually join. Look around and see what's happened whilst we've been the EU's second largest net contributor and what little influence we've had in securing reform over the last few decades. Is that situation going to change for the better or the worse if we remain?

People like Osborne can conjure up whatever figures they like but for me this is about taking the one chance we're likely to get to extricate ourselves from this shambles and take back control of our destiny. I'm not going to waste that chance.

Ignitionnet 18-04-2016 14:43
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35833083)
He say householders will be £4.300 worse off a year but like many of his other figures he seems to pluck figures out from nowhere so l wonder what the Brexit side will counter with now as they will probably come out with some pie in the sky claims as well one suspects.
He's turned the diarrhea dial right up with that one.

It's disgusting that the government are able to use taxpayers' money to churn this bovine excrement out. Even some in favour of our remaining are disgusted.

Quote:
Vote Leave, the official Out campaign, has released a rebuttal of the Treasury’s analysis document.

Below are the key points they’ve picked, among them the fact that it shows the government breaking its 100k net migration target and failed to consider new trade deals with non-EU countries after Brexit.

Here are their key points:

The £4,300 figure is based on the Government breaking its promise to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands.

If there were 6% fewer households than are currently predicted for 2030 due to lower net migration, there would be no reduction in household income at all (even assuming the Treasury are right that GDP would be 6.2% smaller in 2030 than it otherwise might have been).

The report fails to take account of savings from cutting the cost of EU regulation if we Vote Leave, which the Treasury has previously admitted are as high as 7% of GDP, or £4,638 per household.

The Government calculates its £4,300 figure by dividing a putative 6.2% lesser increase in GDP by 2030 by the current number of households – this is just another example of the Government using dodgy numbers.

The report downplays or ignores other benefits of leaving the EU, including striking free trade agreements with major emerging economies and cutting the UK’s budget contributions.

At no point does the report state that the UK economy will contract if we Vote Leave. The Treasury report admits that the UK will grow if it strikes a free trade deal with the EU.

Bircho 18-04-2016 14:46
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35833083)
He say householders will be £4.300 worse off a year but like many of his other figures he seems to pluck figures out from nowhere so l wonder what the Brexit side will counter with now as they will probably come out with some pie in the sky claims as well one suspects.
No need to misquote unless you have to. He actually said GDP could potentially fall by 6.2% which would mean the Government would lose £36bn in tax receipts - the equivalent of £4,300 per household (or 8p in the basic rate of Income Tax or 7p VAT).

That would be based on the Canada model that some people are advocating. As I mentioned in an earlier post (before George Osbourne) that would be because under this model we would not be able to trade services with EU.

If this is wrong, please tell me why - rather than just saying he is talking rubbish please explain why this is.

Ignitionnet 18-04-2016 14:58
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35833103)
No need to misquote unless you have to. He actually said GDP could potentially fall by 6.2% which would mean the Government would lose £36bn in tax receipts - the equivalent of £4,300 per household (or 8p in the basic rate of Income Tax or 7p VAT).

That would be based on the Canada model that some people are advocating. As I mentioned in an earlier post (before George Osbourne) that would be because under this model we would not be able to trade services with EU.

If this is wrong, please tell me why - rather than just saying he is talking rubbish please explain why this is.
He said it would rise by 6.2% less than predicted under their model if we remain, and that the government would hence receive less tax than forecast. They would not lose any tax receipts, the receipts would grow less quickly.

You're welcome.

EDIT: It should also be noted the model excluded the impact of lower budget contributions, if any, potential positive impact of deregulation within the UK, and impact of free trade outside the EU.

Again, you're very welcome.

ianch99 18-04-2016 15:14
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35833083)
He say householders will be £4.300 worse off a year but like many of his other figures he seems to pluck figures out from nowhere so l wonder what the Brexit side will counter with now as they will probably come out with some pie in the sky claims as well one suspects.
Is this the same George Osbourne the electorate trust to run the UK Economy? :)

Big Brian 18-04-2016 15:16
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35833094)
Ignore the figures bring quoted and ask yourselves if you want to be part of 'ever closer union', not only more of the same but 'ever closer union', embracing nations like Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro for example. If we're struggling to cope with massive migration now, how much worse will it be when these poorer countries (and others) eventually join. Look around and see what's happened whilst we've been the EU's second largest net contributor and what little influence we've had in securing reform over the last few decades. Is that situation going to change for the better or the worse if we remain?

People like Osborne can conjure up whatever figures they like but for me this is about taking the one chance we're likely to get to extricate ourselves from this shambles and take back control of our destiny. I'm not going to waste that chance.
Unfortunately a lot of voters won't see it that way. They will see it as if they are going to be worse off. It's only a forecast based on a Canadian style deal with the EU. It's just been of fact check on BBC news and they poo-pooed it.

Hugh 18-04-2016 15:16
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35833109)
Is this the same George Osbourne the electorate trust to run the UK Economy? :)
Yes - the one the electorate voted in, as he seemed to the most competent at the time... ;)

heero_yuy 18-04-2016 15:18
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35833112)
Yes - the one the electorate voted in, as he seemed to the most competent at the time... ;)
Says much for the alternatives. :erm:

Big Brian 18-04-2016 15:27
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35833103)
No need to misquote unless you have to. He actually said GDP could potentially fall by 6.2% which would mean the Government would lose £36bn in tax receipts - the equivalent of £4,300 per household (or 8p in the basic rate of Income Tax or 7p VAT).

That would be based on the Canada model that some people are advocating. As I mentioned in an earlier post (before George Osbourne) that would be because under this model we would not be able to trade services with EU.

If this is wrong, please tell me why - rather than just saying he is talking rubbish please explain why this is.
You are correct here but if we stay in, what would GDP be in 2030? The leave campaign should ask him that. See fact check BBC they have dismissed it as wrong.

---------- Post added at 15:24 ---------- Previous post was at 15:21 ----------

We do not want a Canadian, Swiss or Norwegian type of deal, we want our own deal. If we have to use one of those in the meantime, Canada is not the one to use.

---------- Post added at 15:27 ---------- Previous post was at 15:24 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35833113)
Says much for the alternatives. :erm:
Indeed but the way this lot are going it could be 12% down by 2030? The truth is they can't know. They can't know the population by 2030. The figures were based on 2015 figures and supposition. They mentioned nothing about the possibilities of the other 2 scenarios of Swiss and Norwegian style deals.

denphone 18-04-2016 15:36
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35833109)
Is this the same George Osbourne the electorate trust to run the UK Economy? :)
Indeed it is and l thought Brown was bad but George is running him closely.

---------- Post added at 15:36 ---------- Previous post was at 15:32 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35833111)
Unfortunately a lot of voters won't see it that way. They will see it as if they are going to be worse off. It's only a forecast based on a Canadian style deal with the EU. It's just been of fact check on BBC news and they poo-pooed it.
l have not made up my mind yet but all we seem to be getting is exaggerated lies and misinformation from both sides sadly and l cannot see that changing.:rolleyes:

Osem 18-04-2016 16:15
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35833121)
Indeed it is and l thought Brown was bad but George is running him closely.

---------- Post added at 15:36 ---------- Previous post was at 15:32 ----------



have not made up my mind yet but all we seem to be getting is exaggerated lies and misinformation from both sides sadly and l cannot see that changing.:rolleyes:
Which is why you need to vote according to the fundamentals we do know and actually have decades of experience of. Sadly we can't rely on the numbers being presented but even if we could, there's more at risk by shackling ourselves to the EU and it's grand vision than trade, sovereignty being the most important IMHO.

Seriously, how much more experience of how the EU actually works does the UK need in order to make a judgement about whether it's a) in urgent need of major reform and b) willing/able to be reformed? The answer to those questions alone ought to be enough to base a decision on.

There was life before the EU and the more I see of it and where it's heading, the less I like it.

techguyone 18-04-2016 16:51
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Agreed. It was a foregone conclusion anything put forward would be exaggerated/made up/lied about, however we do know what it's been like in the EU until now, my vote was fixed before the campaign begun. I don't need anyone from either side to convince me of anything, I'm not stupid or dull of understanding, I based my vote on the last 30 years of living through it, not on some numpty cock and bull politico telling me scare stories or lies.

TheDaddy 18-04-2016 17:25
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35833088)
Codswallop! Pro EU garbage. I wasn't aware the EU contributed to the NHS. Just like the crap we'll all be four grand worse off by 2030 if we leave the EU. How do they know when all their other predictions have been wrong? We'll be in the black by 2015. WRONG! OK by 2017: WRONG! OK by the end of the Parliament: WRONG!! The economy will grow by 3.5% per year till 2020: Oops WRONG!!
How come every figure they come up with is wrong yet everything your side say is gospel, starting to think both sides in this are just full of ****

martyh 18-04-2016 17:37
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35833157)
How come every figure they come up with is wrong yet everything your side say is gospel, starting to think both sides in this are just full of ****
Quite agree ,i think the government are behaving disgracefully in this the biggest decision in a generation for the UK people .They should be giving facts for both sides of the argument not campaigning for one side

Sirius 18-04-2016 17:59
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35833159)
Quite agree ,i think the government are behaving disgracefully in this the biggest decision in a generation for the UK people .They should be giving facts for both sides of the argument not campaigning for one side
I expected nothing less from them. that's why i made my decision on which way i would vote before all the lies started.

Big Brian 18-04-2016 18:49
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35833157)
How come every figure they come up with is wrong yet everything your side say is gospel, starting to think both sides in this are just full of ****
I don't recall claiming it was. I did say the BBC pulled it to bits.

TheDaddy 18-04-2016 18:56
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35833170)
I don't recall claiming it was. I did say the BBC pulled it to bits.
No you didn't, not unless the bbc use terms like codswallop or pro eu garbage

---------- Post added at 18:56 ---------- Previous post was at 18:53 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35833159)
Quite agree ,i think the government are behaving disgracefully in this the biggest decision in a generation for the UK people .They should be giving facts for both sides of the argument not campaigning for one side
Disgusting is a good term. I had hoped once the excitement had died down over the referendum we'd have a proper debate on it like adults but if anything the lies are growing bigger and more outlandish from all concerned as time marches on

Bircho 18-04-2016 19:23
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Why would the Government be neutral on the matter? By the process of being in Government, they govern based on their policies, and their policy is to remain in the EU. When they introduce a new piece of legislation, the introduce it with their viewpoint and benefits, not a balanced view.

It is usually the position of the Opposition to oppose the Governments viewpoint - except with the EU, the Opposition also supports staying in. As do every all but one other party in Parliament. The only ones who want out are around 44% of the Conservatives, around 3% of Labour MPs and the DUP. In fact, just under 25% of all MPs want out whilst 75% want to stay in. And of course Nigel Farage and George Galloway want out.

So overall in Parliament, the people we elect, 3/4 want to remain in the EU.

Damien 18-04-2016 19:41
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
The FT have done a breakdown of some elements of that report: https://next.ft.com/content/a3ae78d8...1-0fb5e65703ce

They're saying that it's higher than most projections because of how they've done it but that almost all models say we'll lose out:

Quote:
While almost every economic model has suggested Brexit will hit economic performance and productivity, the government’s estimate is higher than those published by the CBI employers’ organisation, Oxford Economics and Open Europe. The main reason for this appears to be the dynamic modelling strategy which is broader, but less certain than models which give smaller results.
Although they also state that their projections aren't too dissimilar to that of the LSE.

The thing here is that as well as the government you also have organisations like the LSE, the CBI, the Bank of England, the IMF and major companies saying that the UK will be hit economically by Brexit. Two of the most economically literate publications in the country, the Economist and the FT, seem to be pretty much backing Remain too. Vote Leave's reaction to that is that they're all wrong, scaremongering and that we will get better trade deals. Yet they seem to have very little backing from economists, institutions and companies.

TheDaddy 18-04-2016 19:43
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35833179)
Why would the Government be neutral on the matter? By the process of being in Government, they govern based on their policies, and their policy is to remain in the EU. When they introduce a new piece of legislation, the introduce it with their viewpoint and benefits, not a balanced view.

It is usually the position of the Opposition to oppose the Governments viewpoint - except with the EU, the Opposition also supports staying in. As do every all but one other party in Parliament. The only ones who want out are around 44% of the Conservatives, around 3% of Labour MPs and the DUP. In fact, just under 25% of all MPs want out whilst 75% want to stay in. And of course Nigel Farage and George Galloway want out.

So overall in Parliament, the people we elect, 3/4 want to remain in the EU.
I don't mind them not being neutral, I mind them lying, misrepresenting, gerrymandering, and all other forms of dishonesty they've performed in the run up to this referendum, that's what's disgusting

Hugh 18-04-2016 19:44
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
What gerrymandering, please?

TheDaddy 18-04-2016 19:54
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35833185)
What gerrymandering, please?
You don't think politicians are manipulating these figures they seemingly pluck out of the air?

Hugh 18-04-2016 20:02
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Gerrymandering is changing constituency boundaries to favour a party, not misrepresenting information.

nomadking 18-04-2016 20:03
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
You have to assume that all this supposed lost productivity is due to lost exports. If that is so, then the other EU countries would benefit from getting the trade instead. Why aren't the other EU countries pleased to see us go then?

papa smurf 18-04-2016 20:04
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35833189)
Gerrymandering is changing constituency boundaries to favour a party, not misrepresenting information.
your right -they are just plain old fashioned lying;)

TheDaddy 18-04-2016 20:29
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35833189)
Gerrymandering is changing constituency boundaries to favour a party, not misrepresenting information.
Thanks, I thought it was political manipulation of pretty much anything, including boundaries.

Mr K 18-04-2016 22:30
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
The Treasurys Brexit forecast 'workings out' have been leaked:-

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/04/12.jpg

Damien 18-04-2016 22:44
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35833173)
Disgusting is a good term. I had hoped once the excitement had died down over the referendum we'd have a proper debate on it like adults but if anything the lies are growing bigger and more outlandish from all concerned as time marches on
I think it was a bit naive to expect that to be honest. More than anything though what really are the facts? It's hard to exactly quantify the costs because we simply do not know what deal with emerge in the aftermath of Brexit. There are numbers on import/export but they're disputed and they don't take into account the auxiliary effects, i.e a german car manufacturing plant moving back to Germany would hit the businesses around the plant, a lack of EU workers may help those for whom EU workers are competitors in the local job market.

Even with the hard figures we have you then have to ask, well, what does that mean? People talk about doing their own research but we all fall prone to confirming our own biases. I try to link to papers that at least have a considered tone on the issue, i.e the FT earlier, but those papers still have a position.

You're just going to have to find sources you trust and see from there. In the end no one is going to come down from above and gift you a correct answer.

TheDaddy 19-04-2016 00:48
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35833225)
I think it was a bit naive to expect that to be honest. More than anything though what really are the facts? It's hard to exactly quantify the costs because we simply do not know what deal with emerge in the aftermath of Brexit. There are numbers on import/export but they're disputed and they don't take into account the auxiliary effects, i.e a german car manufacturing plant moving back to Germany would hit the businesses around the plant, a lack of EU workers may help those for whom EU workers are competitors in the local job market.

Even with the hard figures we have you then have to ask, well, what does that mean? People talk about doing their own research but we all fall prone to confirming our own biases. I try to link to papers that at least have a considered tone on the issue, i.e the FT earlier, but those papers still have a position.

You're just going to have to find sources you trust and see from there. In the end no one is going to come down from above and gift you a correct answer.
Yeah silly me for expecting politicians to be honest and that is how I will vote, based on what's best for the little man and not for what's in the interest of politicians or big business

papa smurf 19-04-2016 07:20
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Osborne's 3million migrants clanger:

Tory MPs tore into George Osborne last night over a pro-EU dossier that says migration will add three million to the population.
They accused the Chancellor of making ‘unbelievable’ claims that families would be hammered and the nation left permanently poorer by leaving the Brussels club.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz46Fbnn3rW
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Osem 19-04-2016 07:48
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35833236)
Osborne's 3million migrants clanger:

Tory MPs tore into George Osborne last night over a pro-EU dossier that says migration will add three million to the population.
They accused the Chancellor of making ‘unbelievable’ claims that families would be hammered and the nation left permanently poorer by leaving the Brussels club.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz46Fbnn3rW
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Quelle surprise...

It strikes me as odd that further massive, rapid, population growth doesn't seem to be of concern to these people. Maybe they're not really worried about our already creaking services and infrastructure. Maybe they're not worried about all the people (illegal and not) living in garden sheds, crammed into unsafe and illegal multiple occupancy dwellings. Maybe they're not worried about the black economy many of these people exist within and help to growth. Maybe they're not worried about who these people are at all, what risks they may pose etc.

Anyway I've been listening to some more radio callers today and it seems the younger element prize majorly important stuff like being able to go to Paris without showing their passport. Nice, yes but I haven't yet heard any of them commenting on just what good the EU had done for their young peers in Greece, Portugal, Spain, France, Italy etc. who're unemployed in vast numbers. Maybe they ought to consider that but I suppose they feel comforted that when the EU doesn't work, people can at least just go somewhere else to live. What they're maybe overlooking is that those people are coming here in increasingly large numbers there's only so many jobs to go around so when things go bad here again just which countries are our youth planning to take their skills to? Where in the EU are they going to find jobs in large numbers?

If ever the was a policy which embodied 'quantity over quality' this has to be it. Why would successive governments be quite happy to see the UK experience even more rapid population growth than we've already had over the last decade or so when we patently can't cope with what we already have. It seems to me that for those who don't comprise the well off and elite, it's going to be a race to the bottom in terms of jobs, wages, lifestyles, communities, housing, services, social cohesion, the environment and future prospects. Are those people who complain about such things now seriously going to vote to add millions more people to the problem? To my mind the benefits to the ordinary man of EU membership are far outweighed by the evidence before our eyes all across Europe. Focus on that thought before putting your X in the 'IN' box.

Damien 19-04-2016 08:04
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35833239)

If ever the was a policy which embodied 'quantity over quality' this has to be it. Why would successive governments be quite happy to see the UK experience even more rapid population growth than we've already had over the last decade or so when we patently can't cope with what we already have. It seems to me that for those who don't comprise the well off and elite, it's going to be a race to the bottom in terms of jobs, wages, lifestyles, communities, housing, services, social cohesion, the environment and future prospects. Are those people who complain about such things now seriously going to vote to add millions more people to the problem? To my mind the benefits to the ordinary man of EU membership are far outweighed by the evidence before our eyes all across Europe. Focus on that thought before putting your X in the 'IN' box.
If the predictions of a fall in growth from leaving, which has been predicted from far more than just the government, come true then the ordinary man will feel that as will public services. A recession has very real consequences for those young people, for workers and for the poor. The 'well-off and elite' suffer far less from recessions than those that live month to month and don't have large savings or pensions to fall back on. If anything the well-off and elite are in a better position to take the risk.

It's still not clear that Brexit won't still result in us having to accept freedom of movement in return for access to the single market. So we may have those numbers coming here anyway.

Chris 19-04-2016 08:14
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Can we get something clear please, because there has been a lot of mendacious misrepresentation of these growth figures.

The prediction is that the economy would be 6.8% short of where it would otherwise have been in 2030, not 6.8% reduced from where it is now. The economy is going to grow, whether we are in or out, according to yesterday's announcement.

Furthermore, the size of the economy today is around 6% adrift of where it was forecast to be in 2010. Despite all the usual shouting and yelling about cuts and austerity, the country is not, frankly, on its knees.

And let's not even get into the highly dubious practice of conflating loss of GDP with a direct loss of household income, which is what the headline spin invited us to do yesterday.

Osem 19-04-2016 08:35
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Growth in population equates to growth in GDP but doesn't necessarily mean things are better for ordinary people - far from it. Despite what growth we've had wages have stagnated, pension provisions have been cut and services put under extraordinary pressure.

Across Europe, young people especially are seeing what 'good' the EU and the Euro has done for them. They've been effectively forced to move like some sort of mobile slave army leaving their own countries and families behind. Unless we're all one day going to be forced to exist like ants, population growth has to be taken under control. No country can be put in a position where it has to accept unlimited free movement of people but inside the EU that's the reality not a maybe. Only by getting out can we hope to have any control of migration from the EU and that will include the millions of migrants from around the globe who will one day be granted EU passports and equally be able to come here.
What good is that going to do our young people?

Ignitionnet 19-04-2016 09:54
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
So that went well.

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/sta...45321347616768

Quote:
Chris Ship

Odds of a LEAVE vote have *shortened* a little after Osborne's gloomy warning yesterday, say @Ladbrokes: now 7/4 up from 2/1


---------- Post added at 09:54 ---------- Previous post was at 09:49 ----------

If I may also say talking of total GDP is nonsense.

I don't care at all about total GDP. I care about real GDP per capita. Nothing else is relevant.

martyh 19-04-2016 15:42
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35833179)
Why would the Government be neutral on the matter? By the process of being in Government, they govern based on their policies, and their policy is to remain in the EU. When they introduce a new piece of legislation, the introduce it with their viewpoint and benefits, not a balanced view.

It is usually the position of the Opposition to oppose the Governments viewpoint - except with the EU, the Opposition also supports staying in. As do every all but one other party in Parliament. The only ones who want out are around 44% of the Conservatives, around 3% of Labour MPs and the DUP. In fact, just under 25% of all MPs want out whilst 75% want to stay in. And of course Nigel Farage and George Galloway want out.

So overall in Parliament, the people we elect, 3/4 want to remain in the EU.

Normally i would agree with you but in this instance we are having a referendum to make policy which the government will be obliged to implement .In my opinion the government should not have a policy on whether to leave the EU or not until the people have spoken .

papa smurf 19-04-2016 16:09
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35833241)
Can we get something clear please, because there has been a lot of mendacious misrepresentation of these growth figures.

The prediction is that the economy would be 6.8% short of where it would otherwise have been in 2030, not 6.8% reduced from where it is now. The economy is going to grow, whether we are in or out, according to yesterday's announcement.

Furthermore, the size of the economy today is around 6% adrift of where it was forecast to be in 2010. Despite all the usual shouting and yelling about cuts and austerity, the country is not, frankly, on its knees.

And let's not even get into the highly dubious practice of conflating loss of GDP with a direct loss of household income, which is what the headline spin invited us to do yesterday.

to be honest the wizard of oz can't work out the economic forecast for next week without revising it .

Osem 19-04-2016 16:53
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
I'd like to know who these astute economic forecasters are and why their like clearly haven't been employed ensuring that just about every infrastructure, defence, govt. IT project etc. etc. doesn't turn out massively over budget. Odd that... :shrug:

pip08456 19-04-2016 17:03
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35833295)
Normally i would agree with you but in this instance we are having a referendum to make policy which the government will be obliged to implement .In my opinion the government should not have a policy on whether to leave the EU or not until the people have spoken .
And where does itr state "In law" that the Government have to listen to the people?

This referendum, no matter what the result, is not legally binding.

It is political suicide for the party in power to ignore the will of the "people" and could trigger an election if the party in power did not agree with the result.

Then you will get a situation as in pre 1975 where a Labour govenment was elected on a mandate of getting us out of the then ECC, put it to a referendum, pushed for it with all their might to keep us in and we are where we are now.

Never trust a politician or anything that comes out of their mouths!

Big Brian 19-04-2016 18:17
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35833241)
Can we get something clear please, because there has been a lot of mendacious misrepresentation of these growth figures.

The prediction is that the economy would be 6.8% short of where it would otherwise have been in 2030, not 6.8% reduced from where it is now. The economy is going to grow, whether we are in or out, according to yesterday's announcement.

Furthermore, the size of the economy today is around 6% adrift of where it was forecast to be in 2010. Despite all the usual shouting and yelling about cuts and austerity, the country is not, frankly, on its knees.

And let's not even get into the highly dubious practice of conflating loss of GDP with a direct loss of household income, which is what the headline spin invited us to do yesterday.
Clarity is not going to be forthcoming from either camps but what is clear is.

1 You don't have to have a trade agreement to trade.
2 You don't have to be in the EU to benefit from the Single Market.
3 You would not be tied up in all their red tape.
4 If we vote to leave the EU will break up.
5 Yes there will be uncertainty at the start.
6 The Treasury haven't hit one prediction in 6 years.

I could go on.

Hugh 19-04-2016 18:43
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Actually, you do have to have a trade agreement to trade with other countries - if you don't (with whoever), what is to stop countries implementing tariffs and taxes on our goods and services...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35473279

pip08456 19-04-2016 18:49
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35833334)
Clarity is not going to be forthcoming from either camps but what is clear is.

1 You don't have to have a trade agreement to trade. Germay no longer wish to sell cars to us?
2 You don't have to be in the EU to benefit from the Single Market.What have we benefitted from the single market that we hadn't benifited before?
3 You would not be tied up in all their red tape.Not sure about this as the govenment minions have to justiffy their existanhce.
4 If we vote to leave the EU will break up.So we are so important to it ? I don't think so.
5 Yes there will be uncertainty at the startOOf course but can it be any worse?
6 The Treasury haven't hit one prediction in 6 years.Who listens to them?

I could go on.

Big Brian 19-04-2016 18:52
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35833336)
Actually, you do have to have a trade agreement to trade with other countries - if you don't (with whoever), what is to stop countries implementing tariffs and taxes on our goods and services...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35473279
Actually I know this but it isn't a necessity.

pip08456 19-04-2016 18:52
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
I can see a world tomorrow with no BMW's No VW's and then I woke up!

ianch99 19-04-2016 18:52
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35833334)
Clarity is not going to be forthcoming from either camps but what is clear is.

1 You don't have to have a trade agreement to trade.
2 You don't have to be in the EU to benefit from the Single Market.
3 You would not be tied up in all their red tape.
4 If we vote to leave the EU will break up.
5 Yes there will be uncertainty at the start.
6 The Treasury haven't hit one prediction in 6 years.

I could go on.
Is this the same Treasury you are trusting with the nation's economic future?

Big Brian 19-04-2016 19:03
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Regarding No. 4. Other countries will want their independence. Not a case of importance.

---------- Post added at 18:56 ---------- Previous post was at 18:55 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35833343)
Is this the same Treasury you are trusting with the nation's economic future?
I don't trust them. I'm an OUTER!

---------- Post added at 19:03 ---------- Previous post was at 18:56 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35833342)
I can see a world tomorrow with no BMW's No VW's and then I woke up!
Which is why we'll get a good trade deal

Chris 19-04-2016 19:56
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35833343)
Is this the same Treasury you are trusting with the nation's economic future?
At the last general election, the issue was who do you trust more or less. Choosing one over the other doesn't necessarily indicate blind faith. Personally I found Balls and Miliband's lukewarm commitment to deficit reduction alarming. That's not to say I'm a massive fan of George Osborne. In fact, his ability to totally feck up a budget is unparalleled and also quite alarming. I do, however, think he is closer to correct on the fundamentals than anyone who has sat on the Labour front bench in the last 6 years.

ianch99 19-04-2016 20:16
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35833364)
At the last general election, the issue was who do you trust more or less. Choosing one over the other doesn't necessarily indicate blind faith. Personally I found Balls and Miliband's lukewarm commitment to deficit reduction alarming. That's not to say I'm a massive fan of George Osborne. In fact, his ability to totally feck up a budget is unparalleled and also quite alarming. I do, however, think he is closer to correct on the fundamentals than anyone who has sat on the Labour front bench in the last 6 years.
So he is therefore "closer to correct" on the fundamentals of his EU argument .. he can't be correct on one area of the economy and not the other. If he is wrong on the EU then how the hell do you know what is he right about?

Chris 19-04-2016 20:29
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35833367)
So he is therefore "closer to correct" on the fundamentals of his EU argument .. he can't be correct on one area of the economy and not the other.
This is so far from logical there's really no way of responding to it.

Hugh 19-04-2016 21:00
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35833367)
So he is therefore "closer to correct" on the fundamentals of his EU argument .. he can't be correct on one area of the economy and not the other. If he is wrong on the EU then how the hell do you know what is he right about?
If only everything was black and white, life would be so much simpler.... ;)

martyh 19-04-2016 21:02
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35833322)
And where does itr state "In law" that the Government have to listen to the people?

This referendum, no matter what the result, is not legally binding.

It is political suicide for the party in power to ignore the will of the "people" and could trigger an election if the party in power did not agree with the result.

Then you will get a situation as in pre 1975 where a Labour govenment was elected on a mandate of getting us out of the then ECC, put it to a referendum, pushed for it with all their might to keep us in and we are where we are now.

Never trust a politician or anything that comes out of their mouths!
what's that got to do with anything i didn't say anything about the referendum being legally binding :confused:

Ignitionnet 19-04-2016 22:48
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35833364)
I do, however, think he is closer to correct on the fundamentals than anyone who has sat on the Labour front bench in the last 6 years.
A quite scary state of affairs given his obsession with running a surplus which will, by definition, push the private sector into a heavy deficit as it'll have to finance his surplus and our balance of payments deficit. :(

Now what happened last time the private sector got itself heavily indebted... that worked out well.

ianch99 19-04-2016 22:56
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35833373)
If only everything was black and white, life would be so much simpler.... ;)
Ah yes, the black and white response ... I trust George on this, I dont trust George on this, I trust George on this, I don't trust George on this ... nice to be so selective when such trifling things are at stake :)

Where's Gary when you need him?

Hugh 20-04-2016 10:13
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35833383)
Ah yes, the black and white response ... I trust George on this, I dont trust George on this, I trust George on this, I don't trust George on this ... nice to be so selective when such trifling things are at stake :)

Where's Gary when you need him?
So, it would appear you are saying "if you don't trust someone on everything they do, you must mistrust with them on everything they do".

That's an "interesting" way to live your life...

You can't trust Jeremy Corbyn to get his tax returns in on time, so you can't trust him to run the country... ;)

Osem 20-04-2016 12:03
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35833398)
So, it would appear you are saying "if you don't trust someone on everything they do, you must mistrust with them on everything they do".

That's an "interesting" way to live your life...

You can't trust Jeremy Corbyn to get his tax returns in on time, so you can't trust him to run the country... ;)
Take two of these mate.

:banghead:

:D

In other news after all these years Juncker's decided that the EU interfere's too much.

Quote:
The European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, has warned that too much EU "interference" in people's lives is eroding support for the bloc.

The former Luxembourg prime minister said the EU had become involved in "too many domains where member states... are better placed to take action".

His comments came amid an intense debate in the UK about EU membership.

Voters face a June in-out referendum on the EU and opinion polls suggest a very close race.

Mr Juncker also said the EU would not relax its visa conditions for Turkey.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36087022

Nice timing eh. The question is does anyone really believe that his words will translate into action when the referendum's done? I'm afraid he's right, many people have lost faith in the EU and don't believe they're interested in real reform. Sorry Jean-Claude but the EU's had years to address this nonsense and claiming they've seen the light now, just before what could be a huge turning point in its history, is just too late for me.

Chris 20-04-2016 12:41
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35833383)
Where's Gary when you need him?
In detention, probably.

heero_yuy 20-04-2016 12:55
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35833413)
In detention, probably.
He's quite happy now they've given him his crayons back. :D

Big Brian 20-04-2016 13:14
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
that's the first vote of the season in. Police Commissioner thingy

Osem 20-04-2016 14:01
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35833415)
He's quite happy now they've given him his crayons back. :D
:rofl:

I heard he's too busy to post much because he's been in charge of rebuilding Corbyn's popularity within the PLP. :D


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