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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Here's a certain brand of "unionism" that'll be almost certain to introduce a wee bit of NI style sectarianism, just for the craic.
"Campaigners against Scottish independence have moved to distance themselves from a planned pro-Unionist Orange Order march through the streets of Edinburgh just days before the crucial referendum vote." Some insight from a former UDA commander. |
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Just waiting for Salmond to claim that it'd all have been done a lot better in an independent Scotland.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...-west-27404417 Quote:
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Clegg apparently having a spot of difficulty in answering calls to publish the results of a tax payer funded poll which some believe shows a rise in "Yes" support.
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Nick should have just said that he'd reveal the poll results when Alex and Nicola come clean about the costs of the SNP leaders trips to America. Unless I've missed it that is...
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I believe all the costs for those trips have been published.
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1. Clegg can't deny something outright in the Commons unless he is damned sure it doesn't exist. Misleading the House is a serious matter; his failure to provide an outright denial should be seen in that context, and not as obfuscation or 'difficulty'. Clegg is not running HMG's 'No' operation, Gideon and the ginger freckled one are. His failure to utterly deny is more likely a sign that he was ambushed. 2. Angus Robertson, on the other hand, knows that you can stand up on the opposition benches and say, with very few caveats, anything you like, and he knows that once it is said, newspapers can quote it at will, even if there is absolutely no evidence for it, thanks to the absolute privilege MPs enjoy when speaking in the chamber, and the corresponding protection from action newspapers have when reporting it. 3. Ipsos-MORI has no employee called Kelly Brown. Whoever she is, when she writes to the papers claiming her 'employer' has done a poll and the government is suppressing it, she's talking out of her hat. Assuming she has one. The Nat's black ops department has been in overdrive for months now. It stretches from the use of Panelbase (which is known to have had its sample panel corrupted) in the production of badly constructed polls which overstate Yes support in comparison to all other polls to the recent, sudden upswing in the number of women apparently taking to Facebook to praise Alex Salmond, the SNP and the Yes camp, none of which are known for their attractiveness to female voters. All the polling evidence that has been published and scrutinized over the past six months shows that support for Yes, at its most optimistic, has been unable to get past the 45% barrier, which as it happens is the maximum level of support garnered by the SNP in the 2011 Holyrood elections. Even the polls conducted for the Nats by Panelbase have never shown a Yes majority, or a trajectory likely to indicate one in future. |
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Speaking of polls, latest one in the HeraldScotland.
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@Damien & Chris
Chaps, seriously, no need to get so defensive. It's only a link to a news story about a poll that took place, the supposed outworkings of which are being speculated upon. |
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I'll be glad when this vote is over. I am surprised how emotional and depressing it's all become. |
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It's not depressing for me. If enough people buy Salmond's nonsense, Labour's electoral advantage will largely disappear. If they don't then we'll be better off together... :)
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Scotland leaving would be horrible for all concerned IMO. |
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For such an important vote with such far reaching implications the standard of campaigning and information is disgraceful. The most recent cinema advert for yes is one step away from Braveheart asking for a yes vote without giving a thought for any potential downsides. |
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@ Maggy J - Nor is about not wanting a credible opposition 'whomever is in power'. Labour would be just as credible in opposition as they are now, indeed they'd have to try a lot harder. Still, we digress. |
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This'll definitely be dismissed as 'bullying' north of the border:
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How credible these figures are remains to be seen but it does rather highlight a major and impending problem. Someone remind me what Plan B is again... |
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Plan C is haggis, D is deep fried food and E is hoping for hosepipe bans in England to sell the water. |
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Remind me who it was here not so long ago who advocated trucking water down to the parched south... |
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Meanwhile.
"The prime minister has defended the decision not to publish an independence referendum poll that was commissioned by the UK government. David Cameron told BBC Scotland the government did not routinely publish its opinion research. But he said the findings of the government's polls were largely in line with other recently published polls." And another contrary voice. "David Cameron received a blow on the first day of a visit to Scotland when a former senior British diplomat said "tough but sensible" negotiations would be held on forming a currency union in the event of a vote for independence. In a challenge to the prime minister, who will reiterate his rejection of a currency union during his two-day trip to Scotland, the former British permanent representative to the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe accused the government of arrogant behaviour towards the people of Scotland." Better Together clearly have a job of work to do if they want a decisive pro union result in this campaign. |
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I am confused.
Alex Salmond stated in a BBC interview today that Quote:
And in the previous month, the average was 43% Quote:
So how can it be 45%, if the the last couple of months were the best so far, and they were 43%? |
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Salmond has no shame at all. I wouldn't be surprised if he simply made it up (although the SNP probably have a way of measuring the polls that let him make that claim without outright lying).
The polls have stalled for now. I hope they give way to drop below 40%, ideally 35%, by September. I wouldn't rule out Salmond making even more ridiculous claims of a Utopia in the Summer. I think he might just think 'screw it' and announce a 'oil dividend' of £500 or more to each citizen if Scotland goes it alone. Wouldn't put it past him. |
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And in any case not having control of your own currency isn't full independence IMO. But yes the Better Together campaign is atrocious. I'd have thought they'd be able to comprehensively shoot down the Guess campaigns lies and spin with ease. ---------- Post added at 07:57 ---------- Previous post was at 07:52 ---------- Quite a good article with some very valid points raised. http://ianssmart.blogspot.co.uk/2014...-question.html Quote:
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
An interesting blog post as you say.
I suspect much of the content is a follow on from what the house of lords recommended recently as covered here. As we can see, the whole issue of a Scotland after the referendum vote is tied to negotiations under the terms of the Edinburgh Agreement which Cameron has again said he would "stick absolutely" to. I would imagine that will involve moveable dates. |
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This (behind paywall) may cause some "tensions" if the Independence vote comes out in favour of staying in the Union....
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On the other hand, if it had been possible to give votes only to those UK citizens who were born in Scotland, there would probably still be a 'no' ...
A whole range of recent polls (even a dodgy Panelbase one) have shown support for Yes stalling, and in most cases going backwards. |
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My oh my, Jimi's been a long time compiling all those book/film/documentary quotes claiming England won the Battle of Britain... :rofl:
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It's worth remembering that there was predicted to be a "Yes bounce" after the currency intervention by Alexander OsBalls. That bounce was then followed by the SNP spring conference, which was their last decent chance to get their own undiluted separatist message onto the telly. From now on, the broadcasters in particular, are going to be scrupulously balanced (BBC Scotland did a set-piece studio interview with Eck last week, purely because Cameron was in Scotland for two days, and said lots about the referendum).
When the facts for and against are presented, and people then get to express a view in absolute secrecy, there is a substantial natural majority in favour of the Union in Scotland, and not just amongst us English settlers. Although the demographic is somewhat skewed, the best illustration we have so far are the mock referendums held on university campuses all over Scotland in the last 6 months. IIRC every single one of them has voted No, and most of those have done so by a very comfortable margin. None of this means we should be complacent. The SNP will make shameless propaganda out of every podium finish Scotland achieves at the forthcoming Commonwealth Games (quietly omitting to mention the role the UK training structure plays in developing elite sport in all the home nations, but that's par for the course) and there is always the risk of what the strategists call a "black swan incident". We also need to ensure all potential No voters understand that they will only get a No if every single one of them actually goes out to vote. But, on balance, things are on course. |
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I would have thought it would have been better to allow him to stay on the cf if only to brag if/when Scotland won the yes vote or slag him off if he was wrong either way a missed opportunity IMO. |
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Jimi is alive and well on at least one other internet forum, where I imagine he continues to post his opinions of this website.
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Just before polling day, blame UK Gov for some shortfalls in funding after something goes badly wrong with a critical service.
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I imagine they'll roll out a national screening of BraveHeart with Salmond's image and voice digitally superimposed over Mel Gibson's... :D
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Some interesting points arising from the Euro result in Scotland.
1. Despite having a higher profile than ever, a bank account groaning with lottery winnings and standing on the claim that Scotland needs independent representation in Europe, the SNP's support has gone nowhere since 2009. Actually, it's down just a fraction on the last Euros. It is down something like 16 points on Holyrood 2011, but it would be tricky to draw too much from that. What should not be understated, however, is that 71% of those who voted, rejected the argument that Scotland can't effectively be represented in Europe by any party that is not distinctly, uniquely Scottish. 2. Salmond takes every opportunity to claim that the Scottish body politic is distinct from the English. These results prove that actually, it's just a variation on the same thing. UKIP is on the rise in Scotland too, from a lower base but nevertheless doubling its support. UKIP is only slightly more popular in London than it is in Scotland (which have similar population levels), and won one seat in each. Bet you don't hear any SNP ministers talking up that similarity in the coming days. 3. The SNP and the Greens campaign for Scotland to remove itself from the UK. The combined support for these parties, based on the Euro election, is 37%, leaving the unionist parties with almost 63%. This was not an independence refendum, but with the intensity of campaigning that has been going on in Scotland, surely if Yes was on course to win a majority there would be *some* evidence of it in a real election held just 4 months from referendum day, and more than a year since campaigning began? As things stand, the combined support for separatist parties at this election is well within the usual range of separatist sentiment in Scotland. 4. Salmond claims that Scotland does not share England's Eurosceptic instincts. Yet Scotland has just binned its only Lib Dem (arch federalist) MEP and replaced him with an arch-sceptic from UKIP. Chew on that, Eck. |
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Desperate Eck is now so scared of what HM Treasury is going to say about the costs of setting up new government departments in Edinburgh, he has scheduled his own press conference to tell everyone it's a load of rubbish. His press conference rebutting the Treasure starts five minutes before Danny Alexander gets up to speak on behalf of HMG. Presumably he's hoping the meedja all comes to listen to him and ignores the other side.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-break-up.html |
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More bullying, this time from Barclays bank:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-currency.html "An independent Scotland would be twice as likely to adopt its own currency as continue using the pound, according to an analysis produced yesterday by Barclays for its investors. The banking giant estimated there was a 60 per cent chance of Scotland being forced to start its own currency despite Alex Salmond’s insistence the remainder of the UK would drop its opposition to sharing the pound after a Yes vote in the referendum." |
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The vote is still 4 months away...this is going to be debated to death by then :soapbox:
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Good. I've had enough of crap Braveheart esque adverts that seem to say that if we are independent Tony Blair and George W Bush wouldn't have invaded Iraq. |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Let's hope the majority of voters don't decide to stay at home and allow Salmond's Tartan Twits to get their way. There's no way back from a 'Yes' vote...
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The No vote will be out in numbers, even if only for the pure joy of seeing the look on his face when the whole edifice comes crashing down. |
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I think the Scots may well vote YES now, especially if the UKIPers win the next general election.
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General Election = 11 months from now. I think you're getting a bit confused ... |
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I certainly hope all the No voters come out in force. It would be a distasted for us to have independence. We could not go it alone and the change over alone would cost a fortune. It is Ok for Salmon to say we will be better off in 15, 20 years by £1000 each, people need help now to help our situation, Definitely NO for me.
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I despair. :sleep: |
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Would it be possible to have one thread on this forum that isn't to do with UKIP/ Farage? Hell, let's throw in some Muslims and we'll have the full set. |
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No one is not... I know the dates for elections... just been looking at my crystal ball. |
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Now the FT is bullying Alex Salmond.
John McDermott, analysing the SNP's panic stations 'report' into their claimed 'independence bonus' yesterday: Quote:
(Free to view with registration) Oh, dear. |
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I dare say Salmond will be wanting to take full credit for this demonstration of how to get the job done in Scotland:
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Actually, to be fair to the Nats (much as it pains me), they tried to can the whole thing back in 2007, when they first became a minority administration, but they didn't control the Holyrood parliament and the other three main parties voted to force them to continue funding it. Then a couple of years ago when Edinburgh Council tried to cut their losses and terminate the tram line at Haymarket (so that it wouldn't even come into the city centre, much less through it and down to Leith docks as originally planned), as they were by now a majority in parliament they threatened to withdraw all funding unless the council agreed that the line had to come into the city centre.
The tram project has been one disaster after another, but the incompetence is firmly located in Edinburgh City Council chambers and, for once, the SNP's instincts were correct, in first of all trying to kill it, and afterwards insisting that if it was going to be done, it had to be doe properly. ---------- Post added at 11:05 ---------- Previous post was at 10:50 ---------- Meanwhile, it's B&Q's turn to bully Alex Salmond. Kingfisher has already suspended openings of new Screwfix branches, B&Q itself will suspend investment in the event of a Yes vote until issues surrounding currency and tax rates are resolved. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ependence.html Be sure to scroll down to the Diqus panel, some of the cybernat comments are absolutely priceless. :rofl: |
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Some of the cybernats aren't taking B&Q operators comments well.
https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...05/1.jpg:large https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...05/2.jpg:large |
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The cause of separatism is becoming like a cult. The way some of the real hardcore nats react when someone says something they don't like is quite chilling. Heaven only knows what's going to happen when September comes and they lose the vote ...
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They should go to Tower Hamlets to do a fact-finding mission on election rigging.
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So some twit in Scotland reckons B&Q are 'racist ****' because they've made a business decision based on the inevitable uncertainty. How very pathetic... |
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I'm voting NO as I can't face the lunatics running the asylum
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Most Scots think oil revenue should be shared across the UK.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...poll-1-3429680 |
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A blueprint for the future endorsed by the SNP.
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As much as I'd like a 30 hour week I'm a realist and know there isn't a magic money tree, I also pay a not insignificant chunk of my wages in taxes and don't relish the thought of paying more. Is imagine the guess camp will be flogging this guaranteed income message to the less salubrious areas that they've already been leafleting about the independence bonus and who won't be effected by whacking great tax rises. |
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Alec actually thinks he's God. He thinks he can declare a 30 hour week, wage rises and free money for the poor and it will all just happen. His delusions are getting dangerous.
How hard do they think it is for someone to move from Edinburgh or Glasgow to Leeds or Newcastle, or Manchester or London, to escape such inane tax rates as 60pc? No doubt there are some real thick people out there who will be taken in by this, but I have to hope that there are enough Scottish voters who are educated enough to see that this would be a recipe for disaster. |
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I wonder if I am the only Scot who cannot wait till this all goes away, totally fed up with the yes vote campaign it is in your face every day. Vote NO I say. I wish it was September then it would all be over.
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It looks like this is over. I noticed the other day that we're closer to the vote than we are to Osbourne's currency speech. Polls haven't moved since their uptick in April and according to the latest polling people's positions are hardening whilst undecideds decline. The amount of people certain to vote, over 80%, also suggests that the Yes campaign can't depend on a few points swing due to a enthusiasm gap.
Yes need a big event to happen for this to change now. They might be able to close the polls a bit over the Summer but not by enough without a major intervention to help them. As long as Cameron hasn't got a hidden recording of him burning the Scottish flag with Ed Miliband and Prince Charles then I fail to see what could happen (that's feasible). I think when we look back at this though we made a couple of mistakes. Allowing the SNP to not include Scottish residents elsewhere in the UK in the vote was a big mistake. Also the timing should have been now rather than after the Glasgow Commonwealth Games. |
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I agree Cameron should have made the powers to hold the referendum expire at the end of May 2014, I really can't see what has been achieved by allowing the bloodletting to go on this long.
We are now seeing the nats revert to type, boycotting businesses whose owners have expressed anything remotely unhelpful to their cause (B&Q being only the latest) and, on Sunday morning, demonstrating outside BBC Scotland in Glasgow to protest against 'unionist bias'. They are starting to look like a batty fringe group, which is unsurprising because at their core that's what they are. Perhaps the only benefit of having to wait until September is that the more bitter and desperate the nats get, the more stupid they will make themselves look. The three stooges, Alec, Nicola and John boy, are looking increasingly crazed as they parrot the same lines about bullying etc. Only the most dyed-in-the-wool separatists can't see that they're desperate and devoid of any strategy. They really did think they could paint Westminster as a great big bogeyman and then wing it. |
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They really are behaving like spoilt children. Some of what's going on is pathetic.
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More bullying, negative campaigning and scaremongering according to the guess camp.
I'm constantly amazed they make absurd promises, throw tantrums when they are called out on their back of a fag packet calculations and generally fail to debate like adults yet some people are still dumb enough to believe them. :( |
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Just out of curiosity, has the SNP ever once conceded that their opposition have a point and that things might not be a bed of roses? |
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If it all goes to plan I reckon Salmond can see a Hollywood film in this with his chum Sean Connery playing the SNP leader... :D |
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Looks like IKEA will be joining the list of boycott targets for the Nats.
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Alistair Darling says Eck's comments about the BBC "beaming" Ukip into Scottish living rooms is the sort of thing Kim Jong Il would say.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...m-Jong-il.html The nats, predictably, have burst a communal blood vessel. The problem is, they turned the outrage up to 11 a long time ago and nobody really takes any notice any more. |
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Courtesy of the New Statesman:
http://www.newstatesman.com/sites/de...?itok=jsBUfRlU :D http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...ng-kim-jong-il |
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Blimey ol Alex has had a make over.
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Now Barack Obama is bullying Alex Salmond.
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Pretty obvious how he wants to see it turn out. |
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Setting aside endorsements from the Droneranger™ it looks as though Lego™ are bullying the better together crowd.
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We all wish it was all over and done with as Salmon is a dangerous man and would try any dirty tricks to be a winner in the campaign, Thank The Lord most people are beginning to see sense and voting No. Just hope the undecided see through him
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In a more that will infuriate at least one member on here Andy Murray has hit out at Alec Salmond after his saltire stunt at Wimbledon last year.
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The state of the media and their tricks to influence voters has got ridiculous
http://s8.postimg.org/pqgynmh5h/20140608_144348.jpg As far as im concerned it's up to the scottish what they choose and I wish them the best of luck either way but seeing things like that in paper makes me want everyone to vote for a split, just to say :upyours: to the newspaper. |
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The story is a report of comments by Sir Paul Nurse, who is President of the Royal Society. His words have been reported in several national newspapers today. This has nothing to do with the Daily Express.
Given the man's expertise in the whole area of scientific research and funding, I think it's worth reflecting on what he has actually said rather than getting uppity about it. |
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And again the UK / ROI cross border collaboration is cited as a current working and successful model.
"The pro-independence group, Academics for Yes, pointed to collaborations across the Irish border. "Several bilateral arrangements exist between the UK and the Republic of Ireland," a spokesman said. "These include joint funding arrangements between the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Irish Research Council for Humanities and Social Sciences, the merging of the postgraduate research councils of the Republic and Northern Ireland, and an agreement giving the universities of Ulster and Queen's University Belfast access to the Republic's scientific research funding scheme. "Why would an independent Scotland be treated differently?"" From here. |
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To repeat the obvious, this referendum campaign is not an argument over whether it is possible for Scotland to be independent. It is an argument over whether it is desirable. And in the realm of scientific research, as with so many others, the nationalist case seems to be to tear up arrangements that just work because they exist within the context of a unified nation state, and replace them with cross-border agreements between sovereign states. With all the goodwill in the world, agreements between separate, sovereign governments are never going to be as easy to set up and operate as those that are made in a domestic context. |
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However, we are where we are as far as the UK and ROI are concerned and, irrespective of the "difficult circumstances", the cross border institutions work and as such it is a perfectly bonafide comparator. It is obvious that independence can work. From what I've seen it is the "NO" campaign which appears to consistently paint a picture of doom. What the nationalists might deem to do post referendum is anyones guess but, as has been stated before, it will be a negotiated basis from which to begin. That was always the deal. |
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The No campaign's message is to get people to vote for the negative. That puts them at an immediate disadvantage, for anyone looking for someone to point a finger at and accuse of doom-mongering. But the truth - as I see it, and, I believe, as the comfortable majority of Scots voters see it - is that while independence can work, iScotland would not be a more prosperous place, an easier place to live or work in, and a great deal of time and money would have to be spent re-forging a lot of things that at present a lot of people take for granted, such as the cancer research funding arrangements under discussion today. |
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Independence - if that is the outcome of the wishes of the democratic majority - will require change and self governance. |
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