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-   -   Eurozone will collapse... (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33678876)

Osem 08-05-2013 10:19
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35569295)
Something i now expect from Cameron. He seems to be very good at wording a reply that can be taken in more than one way.
That's nothing new these days sadly - New Labour turned spin into an art form and we can expect it from most of our politicians now. To some extent we are to blame for that since we expect them to be frank and 'say it like it is' but then want to vote them out as soon as they start telling us what we don't want to hear.

I believe this is the main reason UKIP has done recently well but the pressure will now be on them not to be drawn down the same route and start delivering on their promises.

Sirius 08-05-2013 13:09
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35569308)
That's nothing new these days sadly - New Labour turned spin into an art form and we can expect it from most of our politicians now. To some extent we are to blame for that since we expect them to be frank and 'say it like it is' but then want to vote them out as soon as they start telling us what we don't want to hear.

I believe this is the main reason UKIP has done recently well but the pressure will now be on them not to be drawn down the same route and start delivering on their promises.
Ukip will be my new heroes if they manage to get in and give us that referendum. :)

Damien 08-05-2013 13:15
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35569386)
Ukip will be my new heroes if they manage to get in and give us that referendum. :)
They won't get in though. They could theoretically spoil the Conservatives party and stop a referendum if they do well enough in 2015. I think a referendum is a given anyway now, no party would want to be seen to go back on it.

Sirius 08-05-2013 14:12
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35569388)
They won't get in though. They could theoretically spoil the Conservatives party and stop a referendum if they do well enough in 2015. I think a referendum is a given anyway now, no party would want to be seen to go back on it.

Thats good news to me, however i don't trust Labour or the Libs to make it a real referendum, they will make sure there is only one outcome and that is the one they want. Sell our souls and our sovereignty to Brussels and Berlin.

Damien 08-05-2013 14:34
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35569407)
Thats good news to me, however i don't trust Labour or the Libs to make it a real referendum, they will make sure there is only one outcome and that is the one they want. Sell our souls and our sovereignty to Brussels and Berlin.
Cameron is trying quite hard to get the answer he wants too. I think the referendum will ask the same question irrespective of who wins the election. Where I think Cameron has been smart, and shown his true motivations, is this 'renegotiated' deal that he wants to vote for. The question won't be if we want to stay in the EU or leave. It will be if we want to take the new deal or leave.

I posted a few months ago the polling numbers. Leaving Europe is a close call. However if the question involves the a renegotiated deal for Britain then there is a clear majority who want to stay.

Cameron is going to come back from Europe with some, likely very small, concessions and position it as a new deal as this will likely give him the answer he wants. It wouldn't hurt if the Eurozone has calmed down by 2017 either.

I think we're getting the referendum but I don't think you're going to get the result you want. Cameron and the rest will do everything they can to ensure the referendum happens under the term they want.

Sirius 08-05-2013 15:34
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35569416)
Cameron is trying quite hard to get the answer he wants too. I think the referendum will ask the same question irrespective of who wins the election. Where I think Cameron has been smart, and shown his true motivations, is this 'renegotiated' deal that he wants to vote for. The question won't be if we want to stay in the EU or leave. It will be if we want to take the new deal or leave.

I posted a few months ago the polling numbers. Leaving Europe is a close call. However if the question involves the a renegotiated deal for Britain then there is a clear majority who want to stay.

Cameron is going to come back from Europe with some, likely very small, concessions and position it as a new deal as this will likely give him the answer he wants. It wouldn't hurt if the Eurozone has calmed down by 2017 either.

I think we're getting the referendum but I don't think you're going to get the result you want. Cameron and the rest will do everything they can to ensure the referendum happens under the term they want.
Thats WHY i don't trust him. The EU will sell some sort of deal with him so he gets the yes vote. Tthen a year or so later he will sign us over to Brussels and Berlin and we will have lost everything that meant anything to this country.

We will be back in the red with the Euro around our necks and Brussels setting our taxes, wages, laws and anything else the think we should not have the right to control. GOD help us

Chris 08-05-2013 15:57
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
The eurozone's financial sector will “drown” in “self-defeating” regulation, which will eventually "destroy" the healthy banks, as the single-currency bloc breaks apart, says the boss of Denmark’s Saxo Bank.

Lars Seier Christensen, chief executive of Saxo Bank, said it was clear that the eurozone would eventually break up as Brussels claimed even more power and used it “ever more poorly”.
The break-up of the 17-nation bloc could take shape in several forms, Mr Christensen said, including the weaker countries leaving, which he believes could be done for cheaper than the current and future bailouts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...Saxo-bank.html

Damien 08-05-2013 15:59
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35569432)
Thats WHY i don't trust him. The EU will sell some sort of deal with him so he gets the yes vote. Tthen a year or so later he will sign us over to Brussels and Berlin and we will have lost everything that meant anything to this country.
Politics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35569432)
We will be back in the red with the Euro around our necks and Brussels setting our taxes, wages, laws and anything else the think we should not have the right to control. GOD help us
We won't join the Euro. We didn't under the more Euro-friendly Labour even before the crisis so I don't see how Eurosceptic Conservatives would join up post-crisis.

Osem 08-05-2013 16:11
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35569445)
The heads are starting to appear above the parapet.

Sirius 08-05-2013 16:23
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35569447)
We won't join the Euro. We didn't under the more Euro-friendly Labour even before the crisis so I don't see how Eurosceptic Conservatives would join up post-crisis.

I just hope the EU collapses soon so we don't have to deal with it anymore. The longer it continues the more of this countries sovereignty is lost to Brussels.

---------- Post added at 15:23 ---------- Previous post was at 15:21 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35569449)
The heads are starting to appear above the parapet.
This bit will never happen. Germany giving up control of Europe

Quote:
Perhaps the less likely, but still possible, would be that Germany leaves the single currency. The bank boss argued that as the bills begin to pile up for the eurozone's largest economy, this option would seem an attractive solution to the country’s citizens.

Osem 08-05-2013 16:36
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I can't see the Germans wanting to leave the Euro just yet - it's a lot weaker than the DM would be and this makes their exports cheaper. Who's to say what's around the corner though - I just hope it isn't chaos. The long this uncertainty goes on however the bigger the crisis when it happens. It's a bit like Brown's 'boom & bust', he didn't break the cycle he just prolonged them.

Sirius 08-05-2013 16:50
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35569468)
I can't see the Germans wanting to leave the Euro just yet - it's a lot weaker than the DM would be and this makes their exports cheaper. Who's to say what's around the corner though - I just hope it isn't chaos. The long this uncertainty goes on however the bigger the crisis when it happens. It's a bit like Brown's 'boom & bust', he didn't break the cycle he just prolonged them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...Saxo-bank.html

From the link above this worries me, it shows just what the Euro elite will do to save the Euro Wreck

Quote:
Savers in the Bank of Cyprus took a hit at the end of April as 37.5pc of their uninsured deposits were converted to equity as part of the island's €10bn (£8.4bn) rescue deal.

“Cyprus was a template,” he said. “Expect not only bail-ins, which if defined clearly ahead of time could be part of the solution, but also outright confiscatory wealth taxes, disguised as solidarity payments.”

Damien 08-05-2013 17:12
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Again in the Cyprus case the money wasn't there. If the bailout hadn't had happened the banks would have collapsed and the uninsured deposits would have been wiped out, everything above €100,000 would have gone. It's being portrayed as the EU, mostly Germany, stealing money but instead it was the EU, mostly Germany, only giving so much for the bailout and thus not fulling backing up the uninsured deposits. Their reasoning for this is that it was suspected that it was mostly Russian tax-dodgers whose deposits were being saved and this was politically untenable.

Chris 08-05-2013 17:33
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Politically untenable in Germany, that is. That is where the real fault-line lies in all this. Sooner or later the logic of a single currency (that it requires single fiscal and monetary policy, and therefore single political control) will become irresistible, at which point there will be a backlash either from the German people, who will wonder why they are expected to underwrite the whole thing, or the German constitutional court, which will rightly point out that the whole exercise violates the country's constitution.

Sirius 08-05-2013 18:23
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35569480)
Again in the Cyprus case the money wasn't there. If the bailout hadn't had happened the banks would have collapsed and the uninsured deposits would have been wiped out, everything above €100,000 would have gone. It's being portrayed as the EU, mostly Germany, stealing money but instead it was the EU, mostly Germany, only giving so much for the bailout and thus not fulling backing up the uninsured deposits. Their reasoning for this is that it was suspected that it was mostly Russian tax-dodgers whose deposits were being saved and this was politically untenable.
But the point is that it has now set a precedence and it seems they intend to do it again next time a bailout is needed.

---------- Post added at 17:23 ---------- Previous post was at 17:19 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35569480)
Again in the Cyprus case the money wasn't there. If the bailout hadn't had happened the banks would have collapsed and the uninsured deposits would have been wiped out, everything above €100,000 would have gone. It's being portrayed as the EU, mostly Germany, stealing money but instead it was the EU, mostly Germany, only giving so much for the bailout and thus not fulling backing up the uninsured deposits. Their reasoning for this is that it was suspected that it was mostly Russian tax-dodgers whose deposits were being saved and this was politically untenable.
But the point is that it has now set a precedence and it seems they intend to do it again next time a bailout is needed.

Quote:
“Cyprus was a template,” he said. “Expect not only bail-ins, which if defined clearly ahead of time could be part of the solution, but also outright confiscatory wealth taxes, disguised as solidarity payments.”

Mr Christensen said bank runs could start “instantaneously” as “normal” depositors that had worked hard to save up for their family viewed their mattress as a safer place for their money than their bank.
So god help the next country that needs help from Berlin

Damien 08-05-2013 18:35
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35569525)
But the point is that it has now set a precedence and it seems they intend to do it again next time a bailout is needed.
Yes but I think this point has been overplayed. This is no different to any other bank runs, including here with Northern Rock. If your bank is in trouble you're going to want to take your money out. There is a precedent for bail-ins now but the EU have never promised that more than the first €100,000 would be protected. The initial mistake was appearing to apply the bail-in to people with less than that, breaking the promise, but they backtracked on that.

The situation is the same as before. If a bank collapses you may not get all your money back. The problem with Cyprus is that it's being portrayed as a raid on the banks to bailout the Government rather than a bailout of the banks themselves. It's important to remember it was the banks, and therefore their customers' money, that were about to fall.

What people are asking for when they complain about the bail-ins and precedents is not that the EU intervened but that they didn't intervene enough. They wanted Germany/EU to increase the bailout money.

danielf 08-05-2013 19:52
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35569533)
The situation is the same as before. If a bank collapses you may not get all your money back. The problem with Cyprus is that it's being portrayed as a raid on the banks to bailout the Government rather than a bailout of the banks themselves. It's important to remember it was the banks, and therefore their customers' money, that were about to fall. *

What people are asking for when they complain about the bail-ins and precedents is not that the EU intervened but that they didn't intervene enough. They wanted Germany/EU to increase the bailout money.
Can you stop bringing facts into the discussion please?

Chris 08-05-2013 20:03
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35569533)
What people are asking for when they complain about the bail-ins and precedents is not that the EU intervened but that they didn't intervene enough. They wanted Germany/EU to increase the bailout money.
Actually, what people are asking for is equal treatment. The EU bureaucracy *tried* to expropriate savings below the guarantee threshold and only the intransigence of the Cypriot parliament prevented them doing it. As it is, what was arranged for Cyprus was not on the same terms as had been applied elsewhere, such as in Ireland, and completely failed to acknowledge that the banking collapse in Cyprus was in no small measure brought about by the debt haircuts imposed on Greece's creditors by that same EU bureaucracy - Cyprus being a major creditor, seriously exposed to the disaster in Greece.

The bail-outs in each case are a political smash and grab, each one more difficult to pull off than the last, as the ultimate victims get wiser and harder to fleece with each passing job. It's no way to run a currency, and is why the Euro will fail. The only question here is just how much money they are prepared to pour down the drain attempting to shore up their vanity project in the meantime. On current evidence they may stretch out the end-game another five years. But the end will come, and the longer they delay, the worse it will be.

Sirius 08-05-2013 20:08
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35569597)
Actually, what people are asking for is equal treatment. The EU bureaucracy *tried* to expropriate savings below the guarantee threshold and only the intransigence of the Cypriot parliament prevented them doing it. As it is, what was arranged for Cyprus was not on the same terms as had been applied elsewhere, such as in Ireland, and completely failed to acknowledge that the banking collapse in Cyprus was in no small measure brought about by the debt haircuts imposed on Greece's creditors by that same EU bureaucracy - Cyprus being a major creditor, seriously exposed to the disaster in Greece.

The bail-outs in each case are a political smash and grab, each one more difficult to pull off than the last, as the ultimate victims get wiser and harder to fleece with each passing job. It's no way to run a currency, and is why the Euro will fail. The only question here is just how much money they are prepared to pour down the drain attempting to shore up their vanity project in the meantime. On current evidence they may stretch out the end-game another five years. But the end will come, and the longer they delay, the worse it will be.
They should nip it in the bud now. The longer it takes before they kill it the harder it will be to recover.

Damien 08-05-2013 20:39
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35569597)
Actually, what people are asking for is equal treatment. The EU bureaucracy *tried* to expropriate savings below the guarantee threshold and only the intransigence of the Cypriot parliament prevented them doing it. As it is, what was arranged for Cyprus was not on the same terms as had been applied elsewhere, such as in Ireland, and completely failed to acknowledge that the banking collapse in Cyprus was in no small measure brought about by the debt haircuts imposed on Greece's creditors by that same EU bureaucracy - Cyprus being a major creditor, seriously exposed to the disaster in Greece.
I am not 100% convinced it was the EU who demanded that people have savings under €100,000 were liable, it seems unclear on if they simply gave the Cypriot Government the amount they should raise and it was they who decided where from. Either way that was a stupid move and it's good it didn't happen in the end.

I don't disagree with anything else you've said. It was unfair. It's the nature of the beast the the timing of the collapse. The EU were less bothered about Cyprus because them leaving the Euro wouldn't have been as damaging as some of the other countries. Additionally other Eurozone nations were less exposed to Cypriot debt. Combine that with the impending German elections, bailout fatigue amongst the German people, the amount of Russian money in the country along with their weak position in negotiations and you have what happened.

One of the telling incidents during the whole affair was Russia angrily protesting about the EU and then deciding not to help Cyprus either. If the Russian Government does want to be seen to be helping Russian tax-dodgers, as it would be spun, then Germany certainly isn't.

My only problem is when people simultaneously have a pop at Germany for getting involved and issuing the bailout whilst condemning them for taking, by which they actually mean not giving, the money from people's bank accounts. What miracle solution was there that would have allowed all deposits to be protected without intervention from the EU?

That's less common. What is common is the complaint that a precedent has been set. That next time a country/bank is in trouble people will run to take their money out because it may not be protected. As if prior to this the rumoured, let alone imminent, collapse of a bank would not have been greeted by an army of panicked depositors trying to take all their money out.

The EU have never promised to back all deposits. Their only consideration was always going to be about how much it damages the rest of them. If you go into that with a weak hand then you're screwed.

Osem 10-05-2013 10:16
Another bailout on the way?
 
Quote:
The government of Slovenia has announced a package of measures it hopes will help avoid an EU bailout.

The measures include a tax increase, a major restructuring of Slovenia's ailing banking sector, and a programme of mass privatisation.

Slovenia's mostly state-owned banking sector is suffering from mounting bad debts and the government has struggled to borrow money.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22462604

Interesting to learn that a mostly state owned banking system appears to have suffered just like the rest.

Chris 11-05-2013 10:46
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Spain is officially insolvent. Get your money out while you still can.

Quote:
I'd not noticed this until someone drew my attention to it, but the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor, published last month, comes about as close to declaring Spain insolvent as you are ever likely to see in official analysis of this sort. Of course, it doesn't actually say this outright. The IMF is far too diplomatic for such language. But that's the plain meaning of its latest forecasts, which at last have an air of realism about them, rather than being the usual dose of wishful thinking.

Sirius 11-05-2013 11:32
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35570547)
Lets see what precedents are made with this one ;)

Osem 11-05-2013 13:16
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
What is it going to take to make the Eurocrats admit their grand experiment is over? Their collective denial is as bizarre as it is dangerous.

---------- Post added at 12:16 ---------- Previous post was at 12:13 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35570563)
Lets see what precedents are made with this one ;)
The Eurocrats will invoke their fundamental principle which is to ignore what they don't like and move the goalposts whenever and by however much they wish.

Sirius 13-05-2013 23:08
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Breaking News

http://news.sky.com/story/1090503/ca...eferendum-bill

Cameron To Publish In-Out EU Referendum Bill

Quote:
David Cameron is to publish a draft bill that will guarantee the British public an in-out EU referendum by 2017.

The Prime Minister is to seize the initiative amid internecine squabbling within the Conservative party and propose laws that will pave the way for a vote on whether Britain should remain in the EU.

A senior Conservative source said the party would "examine all opportunities" to bring the legislation before Parliament - including using the vehicle of a private member's Bill.

Excellent news

He also need to make sure that that whoever gets in power next cannot weasel out of it because if Labour or the Libs get in they will crap on us and cancel it.

Osem 14-05-2013 23:28
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
An extra 7.3bn euros (£6.2bn; $9.5bn) is due to be added to the EU's budget for 2013 under a compromise reached between member states in Brussels.

The European Council agreed the figure after the UK objected to the European Commission's original request for 11.2bn euros to settle unpaid bills.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22527437

Not keen on austerity then... :rolleyes:

Sirius 14-05-2013 23:32
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35572088)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22527437

Not keen on austerity then... :rolleyes:
They dont like being told NO, so why tell us NO all the time.

Osem 15-05-2013 09:21
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
The French economy has entered recession after shrinking by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year.

France's economy shrank by the same amount in the last quarter of 2012. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

France has record unemployment and low business and consumer confidence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22536197

There is some good news though:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22533108

Quote:
Ratings agency Fitch upgraded Greece's credit rating, citing progress in cutting its budget deficit and the risk of a eurozone exit receding.

Fitch up-rated Greece by one notch from CCC to B-, which is still junk status.

Chris 15-05-2013 11:17
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Zut alors! C'est un recession de triple-dip!

There you go folks. Elect a socialist, abandon austerity, enact wealth taxes ... And reap the whirlwind.

Hollande is an idiot. So is Ed Balls.

Osem 15-05-2013 11:26
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
How long before the French start burning BMWs? :erm:

martyh 15-05-2013 11:30
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So that will mean french strikes ,less production ,less money earned ,etc,etc.Wouldn't want to be a frog now

Osem 15-05-2013 19:53
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Eurozone recession enters sixth quarter:

Quote:
The bloc's economy shrank by 0.2% between January and March, according to official figures.

That left the region's economy 1% smaller for the period compared with a year ago.

Individual data for member countries showed nine were in recession, although Germany recorded weak growth of 0.1% in the period.

The figure marks the longest recession since the euro was launched in 1999.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22536201

Sirius 15-05-2013 20:43
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Hang on, I was under the impression that the EU were in full control and all was peachy in Euro land :LOL:

Never forget that there are people in this country who want us to sigh up in full to that failed economy and hand over all control of our economy. :rolleyes:

Osem 15-05-2013 21:48
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35572374)
Hang on, I was under the impression that the EU were in full control and all was peachy in Euro land :LOL:

Never forget that there are people in this country who want us to sigh up in full to that failed economy and hand over all control of our economy. :rolleyes:
Yeah and most have them seem to have gone very quiet don't they. I wonder why... :rolleyes:

Chris 16-05-2013 18:07
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35572198)
How long before the French start burning BMWs? :erm:
Apparently they already do. And Citroens, Peugeots, VWs and anything else they can set a match to. It seems to be the preferred means of registering political discontent among France's youth:

Car burnings rise as France threatens to take euro crisis to 'higher plane' , says hedge fund boss Michael Hintze
Quote:
“Figures released by the French Minister of the Interior recorded 1193 cars having been burned over a two-day period on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, with the annual number somewhere around 42,000 to 60,000.”

Osem 17-05-2013 08:58
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Interesting. Let's hope they confine their efforts to cars and it doesn't become something more sinister and serious. I think a lot of pro European commentators have deluded themselves about the notion of peace in Europe. IMHO the main reason there's been peace has been the relative prosperity which has been enjoyed for various reasons not that the usual tensions and mistrust between nations have been forgotten. So it'll be interesting to see whether it endures the very tough times which still lie ahead or whether simmering resentment will fuel more social unrest, nationalism and what goes with it.

thenry 20-05-2013 21:48
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Pirate Bay co-founder Peter Sunde to run for EU parliament

http://www.pcworld.com/article/20387...arliament.html

Osem 25-05-2013 10:48
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Germany's economy barely grew in the first quarter of 2013 as exports and investment shrank, figures show.

But higher domestic consumption - thanks to rising wages - helped offset the declines in foreign trade and capital investment, raising hopes it will help drive a sustained recovery.

Gross domestic product rose 0.1% from the previous quarter, but contracted 1.4% compared with a year earlier.

The figure showed the economy narrowly avoided falling into a recession.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22651193

Osem 05-06-2013 14:25
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Latvia will become the 18th country to use the euro after being approved for membership by the European Commission.

In a report, the Commission confirmed that the Baltic state had met the criteria for joining the single currency.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22781146

Quote:
"In much of Eastern Europe there's widespread enthusiasm - certainly among policy makers - for joining the single currency," he noted.

"However, polls suggest that many in the country are worried the switch could drive prices higher."

Anti-euro parties won more than half of the vote in elections in the capital, Riga, last weekend.
That'd be right...

---------- Post added at 13:25 ---------- Previous post was at 13:18 ----------

Meantime:


Quote:
The gap between France and its European neighbours will widen unless the country introduces fresh economic reforms, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

The IMF called on France to lower its labour costs and halt tax hikes to boost both growth and its competitiveness.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22771881

Zut alors!

Chris 08-06-2013 17:55
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-Hollande.html

Quote:
The eurozone crisis is over, French president Francois Hollande said as he sought to reassure Asian investors on a visit to Japan.

Oh, well that's OK then. :erm:

Osem 08-06-2013 22:04
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It'd be nice if he was right but I can't help thinking it's the triumph of desperation over reasoning.

Sirius 08-06-2013 22:25
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35581455)
The Euro zone leaders really are in cloud cuckoo land :eek:

Chris 12-06-2013 10:25
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Greece has closed ERT, its state broadcaster, giving staff just hours notice that they were losing their jobs. National and regional TV and radio stations have now all gone off air.

But it's ok, it's the price of keeping Greece in the Euro, and we all know the Euro's integrity must be preserved at all costs.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22861577

Osem 12-06-2013 10:31
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Not to worry, it's just collateral damage...

Damien 12-06-2013 11:50
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Wouldn't they have had to close it anyway? It's not as if they were floating in money before...

Chris 12-06-2013 12:07
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35583015)
Wouldn't they have had to close it anyway? It's not as if they were floating in money before...
Why would they have had to close it?

The austerity measures in Greece (real austerity, by the way, not the softly-softly austerity lite we have in the UK), have been mandated by the Troika as a condition of bail-out funds. And at least one member of that Troika, the IMF, has been found to have ignored its own basic operating principles, its very reason to exist, in fact, because it has been acting to save a supra-national currency rather than to rescue a national economy.

Greece's fundamental problem is that its exchange rate is too high. The Euro is simply too expensive for it to use as a national currency. The solution is for it to default on all its Euro-denominated debt, issue Drachmas and begin paying all public sector employees in that currency. The result would be a severe short-term economic shock for Greece, but let's face it, when you get to the point where you have to close down your state broadcaster at less than 24 hour's notice just to keep the rest of the country ticking over, how much worse can things actually get?

With the Drachma floating freely Greece could start to rebuild. The Drachma would be worth next to nothing initially, but Greece has very strong tourism potential and still has something of a shipping industry, so therefore a ready means of earning foreign currency.

This is inevitable, if not now, then within the next five years. The only question is whether they accept the inevitability and do it in a managed way, or wait until circumstances force them into an unplanned, chaotic fall out of the Euro system.

Maggy 12-06-2013 12:15
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I wonder if the Greeks will be expected to keep paying the monthly subscription whilst the service is down?:erm:

Damien 12-06-2013 12:44
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35583017)
Why would they have had to close it?

The austerity measures in Greece (real austerity, by the way, not the softly-softly austerity lite we have in the UK), have been mandated by the Troika as a condition of bail-out funds. And at least one member of that Troika, the IMF, has been found to have ignored its own basic operating principles, its very reason to exist, in fact, because it has been acting to save a supra-national currency rather than to rescue a national economy.

Greece's fundamental problem is that its exchange rate is too high. The Euro is simply too expensive for it to use as a national currency. The solution is for it to default on all its Euro-denominated debt, issue Drachmas and begin paying all public sector employees in that currency. The result would be a severe short-term economic shock for Greece, but let's face it, when you get to the point where you have to close down your state broadcaster at less than 24 hour's notice just to keep the rest of the country ticking over, how much worse can things actually get?

With the Drachma floating freely Greece could start to rebuild. The Drachma would be worth next to nothing initially, but Greece has very strong tourism potential and still has something of a shipping industry, so therefore a ready means of earning foreign currency.
Because they ran out of money. Even if they did start a new currency, promised it's value and started paying people with that they still would have had the situation where their outgoings were vastly higher than the money coming in. Changing currency wouldn't fix that. I also question how well it could work if the Drachma isn't worth anything internationally, people could have tried to deal with dollars or pounds.

Greece's fundamental problem was surely utterly incompetent economics which were only made worse by an inability to control their exchange rate but were not caused by it? They had a large state, pensions and they weren't too fussed about collecting tax.

---------- Post added at 11:27 ---------- Previous post was at 11:26 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35583018)
£3.80 a month compared to our £12.16 a month, sounds like value for money given the number of TV channels and radio it was running yet even then it was termed a haven of waste.
Depends what they did with it. The BBC is one of the largest broadcasters in the world. I doubt the Greek public broadcaster had anything like the news division or production capabilities the BBC have.

---------- Post added at 11:44 ---------- Previous post was at 11:27 ----------

Looks like they're defying the ban: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013...roadcaster-ert

Chris 12-06-2013 12:46
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35583023)
Because they ran out of money. Even if they did start a new currency, promised it's value and started paying people with that they still would have had the situation where their outgoings were vastly higher than the money coming in. Changing currency wouldn't fix that. I also question how well it could work if the Drachma isn't worth anything internationally, people could have tried to deal with dollars or pounds.

Greece's fundamental problem was surely utterly incompetent economics which were only made worse by an inability to control their exchange rate but were not caused by it? They had a large state, pensions and they weren't too fussed about collecting tax.
Damien, this really is naive ...

The "club med" countries have had ramshackle economies pretty much forever. The clue was in the number of zeroes on their low-value indigenous banknotes, because these were evidence of repeated devaluation and money-printing, which is what you do in lieu of actual competitiveness as your international rivals outstrip you. You can't get your unit labour costs down through efficiency, so you get it down by making your country a cheaper place in which to do business.

These economies should never have been allowed into the Euro because they never ditched the loose attitude that required periodic devaluation. Now they are in, they have lost unit labour competitiveness against the industrious north (principally Germany) but they cannot devalue to make themselves competitive again because they share the same currency as the industrious north. While times were good, of course, they had a means of escape via cheap credit, far cheaper than they were ever allowed access to pre-Euro. That credit simply gave them another reason not to sharpen up their tax and spend policies.

The upshot is, if Greece had nevere entered the Euro, ERT would not be getting shut down today. The country would not be crippled with debt, the currency would not be over-valued because the Greek government would have taken steps to correct it long before now and the short-term damage to the economy that causes, through expensive imports, would even now be being ameliorated by large flows of tourist cash in Sterling and Euro as foreign tourists were attracted to a relatively cheap holiday in the sun (when you have to pay in Euros, Greece really isn't the good value holiday it was 20 years ago).

If ERT was a problematic Drachma money-pit then that would be addressed by planned reforms and efficiencies, not by the sudden, all-but-unannounced closure of a part of the state infrastructure. That you have come to see this "solution" to ERT's problems as in any way unremarkable, or reasonable, simply goes to show how bad things have become and for how long.

Let me repeat: a country with any degree of control over its own finances does not entirely shut down an entire section of its own state apparatus with less than 24 hours notice.

Pierre 12-06-2013 13:51
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I just can't believe that they keep throwing bad money after bad at Greece.

It's inevitable that Greece will drop out of the Euro, it's unsustainable. They should have bit the bullet when the crisis started and dropped out then, they would be recovering by now and the great Euro experiment would have been proved to have failed and may have collapsed by now, or certainly restructured to just Northern Europe states.

Osem 14-06-2013 21:17
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Seems like Merkel has been studying the works of Norman Tebbit:

Quote:
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has said the 3.6 million or so young unemployed people in the eurozone should be ready to move for work.

She has long been criticised in Eurozone countries like Spain and Greece where unemployment is rising to previously unknown levels.

In an interview for the BBC, she said their level of joblessness represented a "huge crisis".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22906820

Osem 18-06-2013 17:37
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
New car sales across Europe fell to their lowest level in two decades for May as the deepening recession hurt demand.

Registrations dropped 5.9% to 1.04m in May, compared to a year ago, according to the industry body, the ACEA.

This is the lowest level for May since 1993 when new registrations plunged below one million.

The UK was the only country to report a rise in sales, with sales up 11%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22950695

11% up in spite of all the austerity eh?...

Chris 18-06-2013 18:37
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The UK's economic policy is tailored to the needs of the UK economy. But if we had only we'd listened to Ken Clarke and Peter Mandelson, and gone into the Euro, things could have been even better right now. Remember, staying out of the Euro means chaos and hardship.

What insightful prophets they turned out to be. I suggest we listen to everything they say about how awful things would be if we left the EU.

Osem 18-06-2013 19:07
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The pro-Euro lobby's gone a tad quiet it has to be said. :D

Osem 21-06-2013 21:35
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
The Dutch coalition government says the time of "ever closer union" in all EU policy areas is over.

The government, led by liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte, set out its stance on EU powers in a letter to parliament.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23005499

Quote:
The Netherlands wants to keep control over social security, working conditions and media regulation.
How dare they want to keep control of anything... :rolleyes:

Damien 22-06-2013 00:13
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I think it's a good thing. We need more countries to join the UK and the Dutch in actively promoting a looser union where we combine for our common interests such as free trade, free movement, defence to an extent and so on and stay apart for the rest.

Osem 22-06-2013 10:40
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35587009)
I think it's a good thing. We need more countries to join the UK and the Dutch in actively promoting a looser union where we combine for our common interests such as free trade, free movement, defence to an extent and so on and stay apart for the rest.
Amen to that! First we had 'little Englanders' and now we have 'little Netherlanders' and even a new Euro-Sceptic party in Germany. I'm just hoping that one day the Euro delusion which drove us to the brink will be seen as some form of contagious madness which was allowed to get out of control before a cure was found. There's never been any real reason why the EU couldn't have enjoyed all the trade, cultural and other benefits of such a club without being coerced into monetary then political union.

Of course there are an awful lot of powerful people with vested interests in perpetuating the Euro gravy train and their egos are not going to take kindly to having their bloated, self obsessed, empire slowly dismantled around them. Roll on the day...

Osem 23-06-2013 17:44
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
EU finance ministers have failed to agree on how to rescue troubled banks in any future crisis.

After almost 20 hours of talks on Saturday, ministers are still split on whether savers should bear any of the cost of a bailout.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23020056

I think the idiots within the EU who admitted the likes of Greece into the Eurozone should have to pay up first. I wonder if anyone in Eurolalaland has considered that option or is it always going to be the ordinary folks who're made to suffer.

Chris 24-06-2013 23:42
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Italy is likely to need an EU rescue within six months as the country slides into deeper economic crisis and a credit crunch spreads to large companies, a top Italian bank has warned privately.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ediobanca.html

Osem 25-06-2013 10:15
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Another tipping domino...

Osem 09-07-2013 20:22
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Oh dear:

Quote:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lifted its economic growth forecast for the UK this year from 0.7% to 0.9%.

Not since April 2012 has the IMF raised its UK forecast. A Treasury spokesman said it showed that the economy was moving from "rescue to recovery".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23241500

Meantime:

Quote:
German exports saw their sharpest fall since 2009 as demand in China eased off and eurozone exports fell by 9.6%.

Germany exports around 40% of its goods to the 16 other countries that use the euro, many of which are in recession.

Overall exports, according the Federal Statistics Office, were 2.4% lower in May, while imports rose by 1.7% as domestic demand remained steady.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23225660

Osem 26-08-2013 20:21
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Greece may seek to ease its debt burden by renegotiating its bailout terms, the Greek finance minister said on Monday.

Yannis Stournaras told German newspaper Handelsblatt this could involve lower interest payments and more time to repay 240bn euros (£206bn) in loans.

It comes a day after he conceded that Greece may face a hole in its finances of up to 10bn euros.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23839920

Chris 26-08-2013 20:24
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes, and there is some suggestion that the European Commission has been interfering, looking at ways of using the EU's structural fund to pay some or all of that €10 billion. The structural fund comes from the main EU budget, which the UK is a net contributor to. That means, if they do this, the UK will have directly funded a bailout of a Eurozone economy.

That is unacceptable, in my view. We gave bilateral assistance to Ireland because it was clearly in our interest to do so. It is not in our interest to prop up Greece.

Sirius 26-08-2013 20:58
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35615008)
Yes, and there is some suggestion that the European Commission has been interfering, looking at ways of using the EU's structural fund to pay some or all of that €10 billion. The structural fund comes from the main EU budget, which the UK is a net contributor to. That means, if they do this, the UK will have directly funded a bailout of a Eurozone economy.

That is unacceptable, in my view. We gave bilateral assistance to Ireland because it was clearly in our interest to do so. It is not in our interest to prop up Greece.
They will try anything to keep this ship wreck of a idea working :mad:

Get us out now.

---------- Post added at 19:56 ---------- Previous post was at 19:52 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35586947)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23005499



How dare they want to keep control of anything... :rolleyes:
The Euro elite will have vays to stop that ;)

---------- Post added at 19:58 ---------- Previous post was at 19:56 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35615013)
It's just typical of such a duplicitous organisation. No matter what safeguards we think that we have achieved they always manage to find some way to subvert them. The sooner we get out the better. Then we can teach the Spanish about the fate of the armada again.
Indeed because the EU having been requested to assist in our issue with Spain over Gibraltar and guess what shock and horror they are doing nothing other than wringing there hands over it. But then what's new :mad:

You can bet if it was us in the wrong the EU would have been all over us by now demanding we stop. :mad:

Osem 13-09-2013 21:03
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Spain's public debt reached a record high in June, the country's central bank said.

The figure has risen to 942.8bn euros (£792.5bn; $1.3 trillion), equal to 92.2% of the country's entire economic output, the bank said.

This is nearly 15% higher than the same period last year and above the Spanish government's target limit of 91.4%, despite severe public spending cuts.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24077728

:eeek:

Maybe that's another reason they've been upping the ante re Gibraltar...

Chris 13-09-2013 21:19
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Meanwhile, an insider at the ECB claims Silvio Berlusconi seriously floated the idea of Italy leaving the Euro in October and November 2011. By the end of that November, he had been toppled from office and substituted with a Eurocrat placeman.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...s-ecb-insider/

It stinks to high heaven.

---------- Post added at 20:19 ---------- Previous post was at 20:12 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35621478)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24077728

:eeek:

Maybe that's another reason they've been upping the ante re Gibraltar...
The whole thing is held together with a roll of sellotape and a couple of rubber bands. The German elections are on in a couple of weeks, and it could all begin to unravel very quickly afterwards.

Whoever is Chancellor is going to have to tell German taxpayers and savers that they are all on the hook for loan guarantees to Greece and elsewhere. Merkel has been doing her damnedest to avoid spelling this out prior to the election, unsurprisingly, because she agreed to it but doesn't want to suffer the likely electoral consequences.

ntluser 13-09-2013 21:24
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35621481)
Meanwhile, an insider at the ECB claims Silvio Berlusconi seriously floated the idea of Italy leaving the Euro in October and November 2011. By the end of that November, he had been toppled from office and substituted with a Eurocrat placeman.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...s-ecb-insider/

It stinks to high heaven.

---------- Post added at 20:19 ---------- Previous post was at 20:12 ----------



The whole thing is held together with a roll of sellotape and a couple of rubber bands. The German elections are on in a couple of weeks, and it could all begin to unravel very quickly afterwards.

Whoever is Chancellor is going to have to tell German taxpayers and savers that they are all on the hook for loan guarantees to Greece and elsewhere. Merkel has been doing her damnedest to avoid spelling this out prior to the election, unsurprisingly, because she agreed to it but doesn't want to suffer the likely electoral consequences.
If Germany pull out it seems likely that the Eurozone will collapse with all the consequences which that entails.

Sirius 13-09-2013 21:49
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntluser (Post 35621483)
If Germany pull out it seems likely that the Eurozone will collapse with all the consequences which that entails.
Then we can only hope Germany does the right thing for once and pulls out.

Osem 13-09-2013 22:30
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35621481)
Meanwhile, an insider at the ECB claims Silvio Berlusconi seriously floated the idea of Italy leaving the Euro in October and November 2011. By the end of that November, he had been toppled from office and substituted with a Eurocrat placeman.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...s-ecb-insider/

It stinks to high heaven.

---------- Post added at 20:19 ---------- Previous post was at 20:12 ----------



The whole thing is held together with a roll of sellotape and a couple of rubber bands. The German elections are on in a couple of weeks, and it could all begin to unravel very quickly afterwards.

Whoever is Chancellor is going to have to tell German taxpayers and savers that they are all on the hook for loan guarantees to Greece and elsewhere. Merkel has been doing her damnedest to avoid spelling this out prior to the election, unsurprisingly, because she agreed to it but doesn't want to suffer the likely electoral consequences.
Worrying times ahead methinks. There are still those who buy the old guff about the EU and Euro being the saviours of Europe blah, blah,... Well maybe, rather like Brown's end to boom and bust nonsense, all they've done is avoid a series of smaller crises by leading us into a much bigger one, socially and economically.

Damien 13-09-2013 22:57
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
My understanding is that the Germans are well aware they're on the hook for Greece but Markel will win because they still trust her more with the economy and her rivals were rubbish. Anyway the predictions of collapse have been coming for a while now. It could unravel but it's looking like there will need to be another massive jolt for that to happen, a large bank collapsing or a country defaulting (such as Spain).

Pierre 13-09-2013 23:03
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
They can burn, whilst I fiddle.

TheDaddy 13-09-2013 23:05
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35621516)
They can burn, whilst I fiddle.
More like we can all burn whilst the bankers fiddle... :mad:

Chris 13-09-2013 23:49
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35621514)
My understanding is that the Germans are well aware they're on the hook for Greece
Nope. They have been told otherwise.

Quote:
He confirms that Germany is indeed on the hook for €574bn of credits from the Bundesbank to the central banks of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Cyprus, and Slovenia.
We have always been assured that the so-called Target2 credits within the ECB's internal payments system is a technical adjustment, without significant risk.
Mr Bini-Smaghi states that any EMU state leaving the euro would face likely default on external obligations. "The national central bank would not be able to repay liabilities accumulated in relation to other members of the euro system, which are registered in the internal payments system of the Union (known as Target2). The insolvency would provoke substantial losses for counter-parties in other eurozone countries, including central banks and states."
German voters may wish to know this before the elections on Sunday week, since they are told otherwise by their own leaders. The anti-euro AfD party – now running at 4pc in the polls, with a shot at the Bundestag – might also find this to be of interest.
(From my link above, well worth reading in full).

Osem 14-09-2013 09:55
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So what you're saying is that if things go truly pear shaped we're likely to have a whole lot of angry Germans feeling they've been betrayed... :erm:

Chris 14-09-2013 11:26
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35621564)
So what you're saying is that if things go truly pear shaped we're likely to have a whole lot of angry Germans feeling they've been betrayed... :erm:
Yes.

Would now be a good time to point out that as recently as this week, Barrosso has been repeating his claim that the EU guarantees peace, whereas loosening European integration would risk plunging us into world war 3?

Osem 14-09-2013 12:59
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Does the EU guarantee peace like it guarantees bank deposits I wonder... :rolleyes:

Methinks the 'peace guarantee' has been much overused and that all that's happened is that national and international tensions have been simmering away as usual. It's really that not hard to maintain peace within modern Europe when economic times appear 'good' and the EU is seen as doling out money from richer nations to poorer ones at no apparent cost to the donors. The problem comes when the massive cost becomes apparent, the money stops flowing and resentment then starts building on both sides. I don't think it's a major leap of imagination to consider that what's been done in the EU could have sown the seeds of a major crisis which could spiral out of control into conflict, not necessarily WWIII however. Whether those seeds germinate will be determined by whether or not we manage to get ourselves out of this financial mess and whether or not large swathes of disaffected people around Europe start turning to extremists for a 'solution' to their woes and forming dangerous political allegiances based on historical resentments. I seem to recall a certain German leader taking advantage, very cleverly and systematically, of simmering resentment and turning it into the worst possible form of extreme nationalism. We'd all like to hope nothing like that could happen again but IMHO there are the conditions brewing for dangerous and very long lasting tensions in Europe.

It strikes me that if the inherent tensions between nations are such that war could conceivably start, it'll take a lot more than a bunch of self important Eurocrats to stop that.

Sirius 14-09-2013 13:11
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35621584)
Yes.

Would now be a good time to point out that as recently as this week, Barrosso has been repeating his claim that the EU guarantees peace, whereas loosening European integration would risk plunging us into world war 3?
Nothing like a bit of scare mongering to keep the EU going is there :)

Damien 14-09-2013 13:27
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35621611)
Does the EU guarantee peace like it guarantees bank deposits I wonder... :rolleyes:
But the EU did honor their bank deposits in the end.

Osem 14-09-2013 19:18
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I think we all know that if need be (i.e. things get bad enough) the rules will be changed. Anyway, I hope that's the least of our worries with regard to the EU. :erm:

Osem 14-09-2013 21:29
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This is an interesting read which says a lot about what's going on in Italy:

Quote:
Italy is Europe's second biggest manufacturing power after Germany, but with rigid labour laws, high taxes, a bloated bureaucracy and fierce competition, the country is struggling to stay on the production line. Italy may have lost as much as a third of its overall industrial production in recent years, experts say.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24037545


Quote:
Carlo Carnevale Maffe, professor of business strategy at Milan's Bocconi University, blames a bloated and erratic bureaucracy.

"Who wants to invest in Italy?" he says. "Even Fiat is looking to Brazil and the US. The application of law here, the regulations, it's totally inconsistent."

He thumps his desk.

"The government has enjoyed all the benefits of the euro - the low interest rates," he tells me. "But they haven't used those low interest rates to make reforms - they've just increased the public debt and inefficiency."
More unhappy, struggling Europeans...

Damien 15-09-2013 00:58
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35621739)
I think we all know that if need be (i.e. things get bad enough) the rules will be changed. Anyway, I hope that's the least of our worries with regard to the EU. :erm:
The thing is will it really get bad enough? I think that point as passed with Greece representing the abyss they managed to avoid. If the Eurozone is to collapse then it would be the result of another major, unforeseen, crisis. Either the collapse of a big bank or the default of the country such as France or Spain. I know people are still saying it's about to fall over but they've been saying this for a while yet. The fact is Europe went all in on the Euro when the decision came.

If they start to recover then the real question is if they'll address the inherent weaknesses in a shared currency that have emerged. If they don't then we're all just biding time until the next major recession, if they do then the Euro might be with us for a long time to come.

Sirius 15-09-2013 01:13
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35621824)
The thing is will it really get bad enough? I think that point as passed with Greece representing the abyss they managed to avoid. If the Eurozone is to collapse then it would be the result of another major, unforeseen, crisis. Either the collapse of a big bank or the default of the country such as France or Spain. I know people are still saying it's about to fall over but they've been saying this for a while yet. The fact is Europe went all in on the Euro when the decision came.

If they start to recover then the real question is if they'll address the inherent weaknesses in a shared currency that have emerged. If they don't then we're all just biding time until the next major recession, if they do then the Euro might be with us for a long time to come.
Note It might be with them but its not with us and should never be. We are not part of that major fail and i hope NEVER will be.

Osem 28-09-2013 21:24
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Italian prime minister Enrico Letta failed to secure backing for a vital package of fiscal measures on Friday as divisions with centre-right partners in his fragile coalition took the government to the brink of collapse...

... After two days of mounting tension and with financial markets on edge, he met ministers late on Friday in a last-ditch attempt to avert a rise in sales tax and secure approval for additional budget measures needed to bring Italy's deficit within European Union limits.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ns-fiscal-deal

Osem 06-06-2014 10:28
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Not sure how this guy really represents anything other than more of the same old same old EU. The sort of institution which is there to serve itself rather than the people.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27727008

As for Merkel's sitting on the fence exercise, methinks it's time for her bluff to be called.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-27679173

What do they say about pride going before a fall?

If there's still no appetite for change within Brussels' ivory towers then I really can see the UK withdrawing from the EU. Of course there will be risks and costs associated with that but it's getting to the point where the risk of remaining part of the behemoth is even worse. These people are behaving like rabbits caught in car headlights... :erm:

Osem 19-10-2014 17:01
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Germany must increase its investment to improve competitiveness - but not at the expense of higher debt, finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has said.

His comments, in a newspaper interview on Sunday, follow a raft of economic evidence that shows Europe's most important economy is slowing down.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29681331

It'll be interesting to see how keen the Germans are to share in the European austerity, unemployment etc. they've managed to avoid for so long. I can't see anything in Europe changing very much until the Germans start feeling the pain.

Ignitionnet 19-10-2014 20:09
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35736282)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29681331

It'll be interesting to see how keen the Germans are to share in the European austerity, unemployment etc. they've managed to avoid for so long. I can't see anything in Europe changing very much until the Germans start feeling the pain.
Germany imposed austerity on itself for the past decade, driving wages down in an attempt to maintain a huge competitiveness gap with other members of the Eurozone. Part of the reason for pain in Germany now is the extreme reluctance to invest in pretty much anything.

They need to spend more at home, invest in infrastructure and rely less on the Eurozone keeping their exports cheap and emerging economies continuing to buy their stuff.

In short they have largely the opposite problem to us. Their own dogma is coming home to roost.

Osem 19-10-2014 20:54
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I think the 'austerity' imposed on itself is rather different from that it has effectively 'imposed' on others. Anyway whatever the reason(s) for it, an unhappy German electorate isn't going to do much to cement unity in the EU.

I found this interesting, reminds me of UKIP.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa6dc99c-4...#axzz3GcUbUAvJ

Osem 02-11-2014 21:33
Merkel would accept UK exit from the EU
 
Quote:
Chancellor Angela Merkel would rather see the UK exit from the European Union than compromise over the principle of free movement of workers, according to the German magazine Der Spiegel.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29874392

Call my bluff...

Ignitionnet 06-11-2014 10:03
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So here we are. Having exhausted every other option the ECB really only have full QE left, and Germany along with various other northern European states don't want it to happen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...rlin-Wall.html

Quote:
The governors of all northern and central EMU states - except Finland and Belgium - lean towards the Bundesbank view, foolishly in my view but that is irrelevant. The North-South split is out in the open, and it reflects the raw conflict of interest between the two halves.

The North is competitive. The South is 20pc overvalued, caught in a debt-deflation vice. Data from the IMF show that Germany’s net foreign credit position (NIIP) has risen from 34pc to 48pc of GDP since 2009, Holland's from 17pc to 46pc. The net debtors are sinking into deeper trouble, France from -9pc to -17pc, Italy from -27pc to -30pc and Spain from -94pc to -98pc. Claims that Spain is safely out of the woods ignore this festering problem.
France demanded EMU as a condition of supporting German reunification. Seems to have bitten them in the backside as Germany are obsessed with inflation while France and others want it to erode their debt.

---------- Post added at 09:03 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ----------

Also this is what happens when you give up control of your currency. Without control of currency a government loses much of its sovereignty.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/irela...lout-1.1989869

Humiliating and if the reports I've read are accurate the whole Ireland emergency funding and bailout is also actually illegal under the treaties. Of course the treaties are irrelevant if they threaten the EU dream of ever-closer union.

Osem 06-11-2014 10:17
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Ah well it's all in a day's work for a Eurocrat...

Osem 02-01-2015 20:16
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35739338)
So here we are. Having exhausted every other option the ECB really only have full QE left, and Germany along with various other northern European states don't want it to happen.
...
It seems Mario might agree:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30654641

Quote:
The value of the euro has fallen to its lowest level since the middle of 2010, following comments from Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB).

In a newspaper interview, he hinted again that the bank might soon start a policy of quantitative easing to try to stimulate the eurozone economies.

The aim would be to stop the continued fall in the general level of prices.

The euro fell 0.4% to $1.2034 after Mr Draghi's comments were made public.

Recently, the official eurozone inflation rate has fallen to just 0.3%.

Ignitionnet 02-01-2015 21:42
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes, well, QE is great for bailing out banks and inflating asset prices but has done perilously little to stimulate the real economy.

All well and good if trying to recapitalise banks on the sly but for actually combating deflation or promoting productive investment it appears to have been virtually worthless in Japan, the USA and here.

Osem 02-01-2015 22:06
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35749941)
Yes, well, QE is great for bailing out banks and inflating asset prices but has done perilously little to stimulate the real economy.

All well and good if trying to recapitalise banks on the sly but for actually combating deflation or promoting productive investment it appears to have been virtually worthless in Japan, the USA and here.
Adopting a flawed strategy. How very unlike the EU... :rolleyes:

Osem 07-01-2015 09:56
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Germany has an "urgent responsibility" to invest more in the eurozone, France's economy minister has said.

Emmanuel Macron told the Les Echos newspaper that Europe's largest economy needed to take a "proactive" role in reviving growth in the area, by doing more to boost consumer demand.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30704993

Wonder what their answer will be...

Ignitionnet 07-01-2015 17:57
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
They're having a laugh. Germany doesn't like investing in itself let alone the rest of the Eurozone.

Chris 07-01-2015 18:53
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
German politics has become defined by its leaders' attitude to debt and investment, just as British politics has become defined by its leaders' attitude to the NHS.

The German commitment to prudence and the British commitment to universal healthcare, free at point of delivery, are both laudable, but have become politically untouchable, even when change is manifestly necessary.

Stop It 07-01-2015 19:43
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35750945)
German politics has become defined by its leaders' attitude to debt and investment, just as British politics has become defined by its leaders' attitude to the NHS.

The German commitment to prudence and the British commitment to universal healthcare, free at point of delivery, are both laudable, but have become politically untouchable, even when change is manifestly necessary.
Well, the former is completely, demonstrably nonsense.

This German commitment only started in 2009 with their amended Basic Law that says they cannot have a deficit of more than 0.35% of GDP. That doesn't even apply until 2016!

Until then, they have ran a budget deficit in 14 of the last 18 years and 6 years ran more than 3%, which is the EU limit. (Data here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germ...ernment-budget)

Germany could easily invest their way out of deflation, they don't want to. It's a political decision and is a policy of the CDU, not an untouchable policy like the commitment to the NHS here.

Osem 16-01-2015 13:52
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
It did not take long. The game is very much in play. Greek voters are being bombarded with warnings about what is at stake when they go to the polls on 25 January.

There is little that is coded in these messages. When a country has been bailed out to the tune of €240bn (£187bn; $286bn) there is no such thing as non-interference in Greece's internal politics.

Most of the European political establishment does not want Greece to elect the radical left party Syriza led by Alexis Tsipras. The party is currently narrowly ahead in the polls. Mr Tsipras is looking for debt relief and hinting that his election could spark wider change in Europe. He frames his message as "ending austerity politics".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30679182

Quote:
So German politicians are sending out their new year messages. Unlike in 2012, a Greek exit from the euro would now be considered "manageable". The eurozone has built up much greater protection against shocks. The German Vice Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, said "that's why we cannot be blackmailed". He wants Greece to stay in the eurozone, he said, but it had to abide by the agreements it had made.
This could be very interesting.

Ignitionnet 18-01-2015 16:46
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Incoming QE announcement next week, apart from Greece whose bonds won't be bought as they don't meet quality requirements.

http://www.expatica.com/de/news/coun...FT_446105.html
http://www.euronews.com/business-new...runch-meeting/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...l-says-1-.html
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...01/2015_546283

Greece is also due to run out of cash in 6 months and banks are on emergency funding from the ECB:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/bu...-aid.html?_r=0
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/maj...ash-2015-01-16
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...ch-syriza.html

Complete with a bank run gathering steam.

http://www.standartnews.com/english/...news-7085.html

Sirius 18-01-2015 18:56
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35753384)
You can bet even thou we have nothing to do with the Euro, the EU will expect us to help fund it. :mad:


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