Cable Forum - Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

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Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

It wasn’t launched from a drone - the tomahawk probably was sub or ship launched.

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

Do they not have eye in the sky anything to do with targets?

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenry (Post 36212260)

Do they not have eye in the sky anything to do with targets?

AWACs are for radar tracking, drones (usually Reapers) are the "eyes in the sky", and they are unlikely to be delivering the ordnance at the moment.

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

What about satellites, do they feed live imaginary?

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

It would appear that the US were using outdated targeting data. As far as they were concerned the building was part of an IRG complex but was actually sold-off / let go in 2016 and said buildings fenced off from the IRG complex and repurposed into a school.

Alas the Pentagon didn't seem to be aware of this, which is a failure of intelligence or communication.

Yes, in war, mistakes happen, but it’s not a good look for the US is it?

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

It appears that they used to have Intelligence Officers who would have most likely seen that it was a school and no longer part of a military installation.

Unfortunately, they were all sacked.

.

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenry (Post 36212267)

What about satellites, do they feed live imaginary?

Not really

https://ongeo-intelligence.com/blog/...l-time-options

TV and films exaggerate for dramatic effect what really happens, and if attacks were happening at multiple targets at the same time (which they were), it would be problematic to choose which to focus on.

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenry (Post 36212435)

Flip flop

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2026/03/5.jpg

---------- Post added at 21:59 ---------- Previous post was at 20:25 ----------

https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth...y?id=131036790

Quote:

"The only thing prohibiting transit in the strait right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that.

This person is in charge of the most powerful military in the world…

https://media1.tenor.com/m/KUY-ngxS_...upid-burns.gif

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

My nephew, who is a geologist who has worked for Shell for 15 years in the oil exploration division, sent me this from one of his Socials - he said it’s an accurate summation of how the oil industry works.

Not a short read, but I found it informative…

Quote:

Alright, let me put my old reservoir engineer hat back on for a minute, because when I hear politicians and television talking heads explaining how oil markets respond to something like the strike on Kharg Island, I can practically hear every drilling superintendent, completions engineer, and pipeline scheduler in Texas muttering the same thing: that’s not how any of this works. From the outside this looks simple. America hits a strategic oil location, Iran threatens the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jump, and according to the cable news experts American producers immediately crank up drilling and save the world with a heroic wave of new barrels. It makes a great television story. It also has very little to do with how oil production actually happens.

First, understand what Kharg Island is. It isn’t just another island in the Persian Gulf. It is the loading dock for most of Iran’s oil exports, with roughly ninety percent of their crude moving through that terminal before heading toward Asian markets. The interesting detail in the strike reports is that the military infrastructure around the island was hit but the oil loading facilities themselves were left standing. To people outside the industry that seems odd. To anyone who understands oil logistics it makes perfect sense, because you don’t have to destroy an oil terminal to stop exports. You only have to make insurers nervous. The most powerful choke point in global oil trade today is not a navy or a missile battery, it is a room full of insurance underwriters in London deciding whether a tanker is insurable. Tankers carry war-risk insurance, and the moment missiles start flying around loading terminals those insurers either jack up premiums to absurd levels or stop writing policies entirely. Once that happens ships stop sailing because no bank, charter company, or shipping operator will send a hundred-million-dollar vessel into a combat zone uninsured. The terminal can be sitting there perfectly intact, tanks full of crude and loading arms ready, and nothing moves because tankers are anchored offshore waiting for insurance clearance. You’ve effectively choked off exports without lighting a single storage tank on fire.

Now let’s talk about the next part television always gets wrong. The moment oil prices spike, commentators start saying American producers will just drill more wells. I spent decades working reservoir engineering and production, and drilling programs are not decided by one exciting week of oil prices. Wells get drilled when companies believe prices will stay high long enough for those wells to make money. That means sustained prices, forward contracts, pipeline capacity, rigs, frac crews, casing and tubing, water handling, and somewhere to sell the oil once it comes out of the ground. Oil wells are not lemonade stands you open because it’s a hot afternoon. Even in the Permian Basin, where development moves faster than almost anywhere else on Earth, there are still physics and logistics involved. A horizontal well with a ten to twelve thousand foot lateral takes a couple of weeks to drill, then it waits for completion crews, then the frac takes another week or so, then flowback, then tie-in to gathering lines and pipelines. If everything goes smoothly you might see first production in a month or two, and that assumes rigs are already contracted, pipe is available, frac crews exist, pipelines have space, and someone has agreed to buy the oil. Scaling production across a basin takes months of planning and billions in capital. Companies do that when they believe the price environment is durable, not because oil spiked for two weeks during a geopolitical crisis. Oil markets respond to expectations, not headlines.

Meanwhile the insurance market can do something much faster and far more powerful. By making tanker voyages risky or uninsurable it can reduce global oil flows almost overnight without firing another shot. That brings us back to Kharg Island. By striking military infrastructure around Iran’s main export terminal while leaving the oil facilities intact, the move sends a very specific signal: the oil lifeline is still there, but the risk around it just went through the roof. That pressures Iran’s revenue without immediately destroying global supply and injects uncertainty into oil markets, which pushes prices higher. The irony is that oil markets are resilient. If disruptions last long enough, supply eventually reroutes. More crude flows from the Americas, Africa, and the North Atlantic, shipping routes get longer, tanker rates rise, and drilling programs eventually expand. But none of that happens overnight. Reservoirs don’t care about political speeches, steel pipe doesn’t appear because a senator demanded it, and drilling rigs don’t teleport into place because gasoline prices jumped on Tuesday. Oil production runs on geology, engineering, capital cycles, and logistics. The insurance market, on the other hand, runs on fear, and right now fear is doing exactly what missiles alone often cannot: slowing the flow of oil.

~ Kat Romenesko

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36212466)

Getting a very real understanding of how this buffoon bankrupted 7 casinos and just about everything else he touched

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

Some significant escalation from Israel here - the first strike on Iran's energy infrastructure and one shared with Qatar.

Quote:

Explained: Why Israeli strikes on world's largest gas field mark an escalation

As we reported at 13:18, South Pars, the world's largest natural gas field, has been hit by Israeli strikes.

What happened? Iran's Fars news agency reported that gas tanks and parts of a refinery have been hit, though workers were evacuated.

A fire broke out at the facility as well, though it is under control, as the semi-official Tasnim Iranian news agency reports.

Iranian *gas flows to Iraq were *halted, a *senior Iraqi official told Reuters.

Why is the gas field so important? As the biggest known gas field, South Pars covers about 9,700 square kilometres in the Persian Gulf and is estimated to hold about 51 trillion cubic metres of gas, according to the Guinness Book of World Records.

Ownership of the field is split between Iran and Qatar. The larger Qatari side was discovered first, in 1971.

Why is this a major escalation? This notably marks the first reported strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure in the Gulf during the war. Moreover, it targets a facility shared with Qatar.

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-...-news-13509565

Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

https://wapo.st/4byxTSv

Tulsi Gabbards’s (Director of National Intelligence) testimony to a Senate hearing today

Quote:

Strikingly, in her opening statement she departed from prepared remarks — published ahead of Wednesday’s hearing — outlining the intelligence community’s assessment of Iran’s nuclear capability. As she spoke to lawmakers, Gabbard said that after the U.S. military bombed Iran’s nuclear sites over the summer, Tehran was “trying to recover” from the “severe damage” caused by the operation. 

According to her written statement, Gabbard was expected to say that the Iranians had made “no efforts” since the U.S. bombing of their nuclear facilities “to try to rebuild their enrichment capability.” That statement appeared to undercut assertions made by the administration, which has cited Iran’s nuclear program as one reason President Donald Trump felt an imperative to start the war.

When Sen. Mark R. Warner (Virginia), the committee’s top Democrat, asked Gabbard why she deviated from her written remarks, she told him that she had skipped some portions as “the time was running long.

” Warner then accused her of having chosen “to omit the parts that contradict the president.”

 Under questioning from Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Georgia), Gabbard acknowledged later that her written remarks do reflect the intelligence community’s assessment, though she declined to say directly whether Iran had posed an “imminent nuclear threat” as the Trump administration has claimed.

---------- Post added at 21:10 ---------- Previous post was at 19:20 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36212655)

Some significant escalation from Israel here - the first strike on Iran's energy infrastructure and one shared with Qatar.

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-...-news-13509565

And Iran is striking back at other Gulf States oil and gas facilities…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c24d...d65e4dd44#post