Cable Forum - Government & Post Election Discussion

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Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35997439)

They are mostly ******s out for themselves.

John Redwood (not standing) would be my pick.

I now await the "talking of ******s…." replies!

Please do not use words that invoke the swear filter - repetition of this behaviour will invoke the Infraction System.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

Westminster voting intention.

Quote:

BREX: 26% (+1)
LAB: 22% (-4)
CON: 17% (-5)
LDEM: 16% (+4)
GRN: 11% (+7)
CHUK: 1% (-1)
UKIP: 1% (-1)

via Opinium Research, 28 - 30 May
Chgs. w/ 20 May

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

More on the Opinium poll that was released.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...atives-opinium

Quote:

The Brexit party’s support increased by two points to 26% of the vote in the latest Opinium poll – for the Observer – which asked people how they would vote in the next Westminster election.

Quote:

Labour is in second place on 22%, but its support has fallen by seven points over the past two weeks. The Tories are third on 17%, with their support down five points, and the Lib Dems are up five points, on 16% of the vote.

Quote:

According to a seat predictor by the Electoral Calculus website, the result would leave Farage 20 seats short of a majority, with 306 MPs. The Conservatives would be reduced to 26 MPs, suggesting they could be the minor party in a coalition with Farage. However, inconsistent swings in different seats make any such predictions very difficult.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

This is absurd and everyone needs to take a step back and a deep breath.

The Lib Dems surged in 2015 after the leaders TV debates and they eventually did well but nowhere near the landslide that first appeared.

The SDP surged in the polls after they were formed in 1981 and reached 50% in at least one opinion poll that year. Their vote share in alliance with the Liberals was eventually in the mid 20s% at the 1983 election.

General elections are big beasts and voters know their importance. They don’t change their allegiances easily, regardless of what they say in mid-term polls - consider how little has changed in terms of vote share since 2005. It’s less than you might think.

The polls should certainly give both Tory and Labour strategists sleepless nights and there’s no doubt the Brexit party would be extremely disruptive if an election was held any time soon, and before Brexit has actually happened. But the idea that Farage is going to win 306 seats is laughable. If he came away with even 36 that would be revolutionary.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

Matthew Parris and his thoughts on Boris Johnson and potential elections ahead.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/l...88ce513ef35bc5

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

The latest Westminster voting intention.

Quote:

BREX: 26% (-)
LDEM: 22% (+2)
LAB: 19% (-1)
CON: 17% (-1)
GRN: 8% (-1)
CHUK: 1% (+1)
UKIP: 0% (-)

via @YouGov, 9 - 10 June
Chgs. w/ 6 Jun

http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Police probe by-election fraud
POLICE are investigating allegations of electoral fraud during the Peterborough by-elections, which saw Labour trump the Brexit Party by a narrow margin.

Three of the complaints are to do with postal voting, while one relates to bribery and corruption and another concerns breach of privacy. An election observer also raised concerns over the behaviour of certain voters during the June 6 by-election.

Former Liberal Democrat candidate John Ault said he saw voters photographing their ballot papers.
Mr Ault said to The Mail on Sunday: "I have observed many elections across Europe and only once in Kazchstan many years ago, did I see what I saw happen three times in Peterborough."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...tewart-no-deal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-48665324

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/v...ough-bcpmdm8zj

What he actually said, in context...

https://democracyvolunteers.org/2019...tion-06-06-19/

Quote:

Overall, the observer team was extremely impressed with the organisation and administration of polling stations throughout the day by polling staff, particularly given this is the third election to be held in a short-time frame in Peterborough. Polling station staff seemed well prepared to deliver the election, from greeting voters and administering ballot papers to ensuring the secrecy of the ballot. Staff were very welcoming to the observer team and regularly recorded their attendance at their stations.

An ongoing concern of Democracy Volunteers is the observed level of so-called ‘family voting’, whereby individuals lose their right to cast their vote in secret. In today’s election, ‘family voting’ was observed in 50% of all polling stations. Despite the high prevalence of family voting, the extent to which this was challenged by polling station staff was highly commendable, regular and sometimes even persistent. It was clear that staff had received training about the negative impact of family voting and how to intervene when necessary. The returning officer had also clearly coordinated with the local police to ensure that some polling stations were also permanently or regularly attended to encourage the correct voting procedures which were often challenged by voters, who were often unaware that this is an ‘unacceptable practice’ (OSCE/ODIHR).

However, Democracy Volunteers has also identified an emerging concern in the frequency in which individuals were observed to be photographing their completed ballot papers, which in each case went either unnoticed or unchallenged by staff. Whilst the observer team did not see this in every station it was clear that photographing a ballot, presumably for transmission, was a normalised activity, even though polling stations clearly displayed signs stating that photography is forbidden in polling stations. This photography did not take the form of so-called ‘selfies’ but of simply a ballot being photographed by the voter.

Any concerns should be investigated, and if criminal acts occurred, prosecution should happen.

Yup, no one is hurt by an investigation and if something is found and was serious enough they'll have to rerun the election as they did with that Tory seat. The photographing of ballots suggest they needed to 'prove' who they voted for.

---------- Post added at 16:25 ---------- Previous post was at 16:24 ----------

Moved to this thread as not strictly Brexit related

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35999422)

I wonder what the going rate is for a vote ? and what is the punishment if you get caught?

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35999424)

I wonder what the going rate is for a vote ? and what is the punishment if you get caught?

People go to prison for such things IIRC. It's taken seriously.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

The votes probably aren’t being bought, it’s more likely the head of the family has told everyone who to vote for and demanded proof, because polling station returning officers are trained to spot and challenge attempts at family voting these days. Gone are the days when a man in his 50s could just walk in to a polling with a sheaf of proxy approvals, or with his wife, children and aged aunts and wait while they collect their ballot papers and then give them to him to fill in.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35999426)

The votes probably aren’t being bought, it’s more likely the head of the family has told everyone who to vote for and demanded proof, because polling station returning officers are trained to spot and challenge attempts at family voting these days. Gone are the days when a man in his 50s could just walk in to a polling with a sheaf of proxy approvals, or with his wife, children and aged aunts and wait while they collect their ballot papers and then give them to him to fill in.

Is that a cultural thing??? my family would tell to [go away] .

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

It is and I don't think it's illegal as so long as they aren't being coerced or paid. Ultimately people can choose the basis for their vote even if it's 'my dad says so'. Really it's not that different to the 'my family has always voted Labour' stuff.

Although if they aren't being coerced then why take the picture....

In the end this is why it should be looked into.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion

I suspect the act of photographing the ballot is evidence of coercion, especially if the photo has been sent to someone rather than posted on Facebook (as some dimwit nationalists were doing in Scotland in 2014).

And yes, it’s definitely an issue in some ethnic communities rather than others.