Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

No, I have not walked away from that idea at all. However, the Government is now focussed on getting a more suitable deal, so implementing Article 24 won't be necessary, assuming the EU give way.

If there is no deal, all that has to be done is for a document to be produced about what both sides want from a trade deal. If that is agreed by both sides (and why wouldn't it be?) then Article 24 can be applied.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The USA GDP growth forecast is 2.1% for 2019 (from 2.9% in 2018), 2% in 2020, and 1.8% in 2021.

Japan 0.9% in 2019, 0.7% in 2020, 0.6% in 2021.

Canada 1.9% in 2020, 1.8% 2021

So, no...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Old Boy doesn't work with facts based in economics. Conjecture and opinion is more his game.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

We don’t punch enough, we’re handicapped, thanks to the corrupted EU, you and other Remainers, selfishly want to stay aligned to them for weak economic reasons and despite them being corrupted to the core and totally undemocratic, just look at the pathetic European Commission President selection process, they’ve appointed a totally failing German minister, deeply unpopular within Germany and the cancerous EU pretends to be Democratic and you and others should surely to hell know this and want to GTFO of this corrupt institution.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Ever been to Germany Mick ? It's really quite a nice place and the people are some of the most contented and friendliest in Europe. Compare that to the UK. My son might end up working there, they welcome skilled immigrants. If he settles hopefully they.might let me in ;)

We only punch anything these days as we're part of the largest trading block in the world. Once we leave we'll become even more insignificant. The Empire is gone, WW2 is over, this country needs to look to the future, not disappear down a hole of its own making. We'll be left with unskilled grumpy geriatrics, with no healthcare or young folk/tax/resources to look after them.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

According to the IMF, the Eurozone area GDP is forecast to be 1.3 in 2019, 1.5 in 2020 and 1.6 in 2024.

But you have been selective in your quotes. What about China (6.3/6.3/6.1), India (7.3/7.5/7.7), Sub Saharan Africa (3.5/3.7/4.0), Australia (2.1, 2.8, 2.6), Korea (2.6, 2.8, 2.9) for example?

So, yes.:D

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

You're sounding a bit desperate today OB ! ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

We were talking about the EU, not the Eurozone area (nice try at moving the goalposts, though ;) ).

I thought the 1st and 3rd largest economies was fairly representative, but ymmv...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Not what some others seem to think.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/...utside-the-eu/

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Methinks the Icelandic ex-PM might be after our fish !

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

People can have their thoughts whatever way they want as whatever thoughts and views they have they should not be lambasted for it whatever view they have.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Not that many EU countries are outside the Eurozone, the UK being one of them.

In terms of trade, GDP is a meaningless figure. India #3 by total, but #126 by per person. You need people with the surplus money to buy things. Most of the population of India haven't got that.

Why should a trade agreement be all about power? That may be how the EU(ie France and Germany) wants to operate, but we want to be away from all that.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

"Not that many"?

9 out of 28 - about a third...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Spot on Mr K. ;) I'm concerned that my grown up "kids" will never get this opportunity that we currently take for granted.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Why??
is Germany relocating off world?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

. . ship builder? astronaut? holiday rep? train driver? linguist? purveyor of fine items stored in a suitcase? . . . please tell ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Do you think it will be as easy as it is now for Brits to go and work abroad post Brexit ?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

If you have the skills they need then i don't see a problem,the same way i don't see a problem with EU citizens with skills working here,it's the no skill required jobs that will present a problem , all countries have an abundance of none skilled people of their own that need employing.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I agree with the highlighted bit. Fruit picking and care home recruitment for example is already massively affected by the looming Brexit threat. Brits just don't want these jobs. And likewise UK back packers won't be able to supplement their travels abroad with seasonal work.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

That's down to the government ie if people won't work then they should not get benefits, no one said work was supposed to be fun or enjoyable it's just a means of providing for you and your's ,as for backpackers -tough.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

What's Germany's current policy to non-EU economic migrants? I assume this would come into effect if we leave with no deal.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Well if they don't want you look elswhere.;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Yeah, I’ve been trying really hard to give a smeg about how easy or hard it is for Tarquin and Fenella to gig their way round Europe during their gap-yah. I mean reeeeeealy hard. No luck so far.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

It's not just Hugo and Cressida who like to go abroad. Daz, Baz and Laz like to go as well. :)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

In which case we’re doing Europe a favour by making it harder for them...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Germany has long brought in workers from outside the EU.

Australia has a system for attracting seasonal workers.

How did the UK manage before those from Eastern Europe were allowed in?


The UK has attracted many more EU medical staff than Germany. They want to come here.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

My son spent 2 years in Oz on a working tourist visa - what attracted him (and a lot of the people he "travelled" with) was the opportunity to visit Nepal, India, and Bali on the way to Oz, the consistently good weather, the opportunity to visit the Gold Coast / Barrier Reef with a quick flight, and a huge land to explore where everyone spoke the same (mostly) language as him.

Not sure GB can offer that to seasonal workers... ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

So we don't attract seasonal workers at the moment?
Link


In other words, even if we remained in the EU there would be problems.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

So, in your imagined world, nobody from the UK will ever be able to go to Germany?
Have you listened to yourself? Please, get a grip!

---------- Post added at 23:51 ---------- Previous post was at 23:48 ----------

That is an understandable concern, but the government would have to be daft to ignore that issue. It may not be a 'skill' to be able to pick fruit, but it is a demonstrable need.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

You mean you don't think they should broaden their world knowledge?;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Students if I recall correctly . . before they got lazy or qualified for handouts ;)

As for land work, it used to be gangs of women (and kids) earning a few quid picking fruit/veg . . . no idea why that all collapsed, probably the Government not being able to tax it efficiently :rolleyes:

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

If that is the case, how come there was no gap, where people in the UK wouldn't do it, but Eastern Europeans couldn't yet come here?

Sounds like people in the UK got pushed out, which is forever being claimed not to have happened.
LSE report

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

You answered your own question. Benefits.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

What handouts do students now qualify for that has made them 'lazy'?

---------- Post added at 16:26 ---------- Previous post was at 16:23 ----------

Who are you referring to that you think stopped working due to the existence of the welfare state, women, children or students?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

But you cannot assume that we will be worse off when all the forecasters have done is calculate the downside. No-one knows how entrpreneurs and governments will react to our new freedoms, and history tells us that if you remove the shackles, businesses respond positively.

As far as the EU is concerned, I can assure you that they don't want a no-deal as this would hurt their economies. The Telegraph has reported that a study for the Belgian government a few weeks ago calculated that 139,000 jobs would be lost in Italy, 141,000 in France, 291,000 in Germany. The French finance ministry has added a price tag: an €11 billion hit for Italy, €14 billion for France and €30  billion for Germany.

It is wrong to suggest that the UK will be more severely affected. The EU export more to us than we do to them. Think on.:scratch:

---------- Post added at 16:39 ---------- Previous post was at 16:31 ----------

Our benefits system for able bodied workers is far too generous. In previous times, if you didn't work, you'd starve. You've only got to watch the documentaries on TV to see how people who are perfectly capable of working are abusing the system.

I am not talking about people with disabilities, Richard. I think we should be making life easier for them. But there are far too many benefit fraudsters about who find it easier to commit fraud than working for a living for my liking.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

---------- Post added at 16:26 ---------- Previous post was at 16:23 ----------

Correct. The only things students qualify for now is huge debt. Unlike their "hard working" X-generation and Baby Boomer predecessors.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I couldn’t go to uni because my parents couldn’t afford it.

Why do you think the current generation are so badly off? If they want to go, they go, and they don’t pay anything back if they stay on a salary deemed to have not been increased due to having a university education.

There are far more people going to uni these days than there were in my time.

All of this bleating about how bad it is for young people now is pathetic. A uni education is not even important any more for most careers. I have done pretty well for myself without one.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

If you parents were so hard up you'd have got a decent grant if you were offered a place of course. Not the case now.
You seem to think the current generation are lazy and entitled, all the ones I know are neither of these things. And it is harder for the current generation in many ways. Getting a house, getting a decent career is far more difficult due to the huge increase in university attendance. Saddled with debt if they do get a degree.
And quit the "bleating" comments just because it doesn't conform with your views.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Are you implying they choose to stay on a salary below the threshold because of the "marginal rate of tax" of 9%?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Seph, while we've had fun on the Brexit threads (and I mean that sincerely) you can't really filter other people's posts from scrutiny. He made a statement. I, and anyone else, can scrutinise it.

It reads like he geninely believes people who have student loans elect to earn below the threshold because of a marginal rate of tax of 9% on those earnings. I've asked him to clarify if he believes that.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Honestly, jfman, the way you think continues to amaze me.

Of course, once again, you are way off beam. What I am saying is that the government have set a minimum salary at which university fees are paid back. That minimum salary relates to the benefit deemed to have been assumed by that university education.

Individual motivations to attend university and find employment afterwards I am sure will vary.

That is all. Why do you think you have the right to scrutinise everything said on these forums? We are just having a conversation, for heaven's sake. This isn't an online version of the House of Commons!

Just cool.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Surely everyone has the right to read what's written here and comment if they wish. That's what makes it a forum.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Exactly and if they don't like another members views then there is that simple ignore option.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

To be fair I think the thread title (topic) is rather vague and open to many interpretations.

How about someone starts a new 'topic' thread like . . Are the youth of today worse off than 40 years ago - and why?

I'd expect it to get quite lively :D

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I’m sure they do, but I’m quite sure nobody chooses to earn £22 000 for the sole purpose of avoiding paying back their student loans at a marginal rate of 9% of earnings above that threshold.

If the economic environment means a lot of graduates are earning below this level then that’s the general economy that’s the problem not any individual who went to uni.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Not sure if there is any logic/reason for anyone to earn below £22k (actually, £19k or £25k, depending on which Plan you are on, but let’s keep using £22k as a baseline) to avoid paying 9% of their salary over £22k (as you don’t pay anything on the first £22k even if you earn above the threshold).

If they earned £25k, after paying (approx) 20% tax, 11% NI, and 9% student loan repayment, they would still be £1800 pa, or £150 per month, better off.

The proposition does not stand up...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

You seem to be arguing with me on a point I didn't make.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Unfortunately, one ethos of the Boris government is to lie as this snippet in The Sunday Times illustrates.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RosamundU...67876440498177

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I guess if I want to keep up with the most accurate and unbiased news reporting in the universe, I'll have to get a twitter account :rolleyes:

To be honest though, it reminds me of when my dear old mum (bless) used to stand at the garden fence swapping tittle-tattle with the neighbours ;)

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

No, the Govermemnt's spokesman said they did not comment on leaks knowing that Gove had done exactly that. And Gove is in the Government.
But I agree it's especially poor behaviour from him as he's a clever and gifted politician who shouldnt need to act in this manner.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Sorry...:erm:

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Here you go - source material.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...gove-nfc2fcltp The prime minister’s spokeswoman: “We don’t comment on leaks”
Gove commented on Twitter on the leak last Sunday

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Happy to have the clarification that wasn't what you meant to imply.

All I asked was clarification - Hugh in post 1350 clearly outlines why any such notion is ludicrous - so glad it was misinterpretation on my part.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The people that are lying are the ones claiming there is a deal on the table. Even with the Withdrawal Agreement, "No Deal" and whatever effects it is meant to have, still happens, just later on.


If the EU are claiming a full and proper deal can be done within 30 days, then the backstop can be removed as it is not needed. In other words, they are fibbing and have no intention whatsoever in agreeing to anything.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

They didn’t...

https://www.thejournal.ie/boris-brex...77445-Aug2019/

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

There's still 16 months before any backstop would be due to come into play, plus the previous months, gives more than 2 years. It's still more than long enough to remove the backstop. Macron agreed with the 30 days. If Merkel and Macron can truly envisage an agreement within 30 days, they must have a solution in mind. Either they are outright lying or their solution is so unacceptable it wouldn't be accepted.


A central issue is that the backstop only ends if the EU says it can. Why wasn't that aspect front and centre in the Withdrawal Agreement and not left to just 3 words, ie "unless and until".

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The 30 day solution is a customs union for goods.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

So following EU rules without having a say(not that we have much of one anyway), applying EU set tariffs, obeying the EU and the ECJ, no outside trade deals allowed, having to submit to conditions of other EU trade agreements, eg Vietnam but in only one direction ie imports to UK, and all still with customs delays and massive extra costs.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Good decision, I think it should be explicitly listed, it was the most important reason for most people voting leave after all

Oh now you care about people making wild claims and passing them of as fact, don't remember you caring much about the electorate when the wildest claims were made three years ago, truth is you couldn't give a toss about the electorate or the will of the people, your only intetest is in getting your own way and to hell with the consequences

:shocked: you think it'll go up then?

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The website I quoted did not show the EU as a separate entity.

Anyways, just heard that Germany is heading for a recession. Hey, ho..:D

---------- Post added at 14:16 ---------- Previous post was at 14:10 ----------

You really are quite naive, aren't you, TD? Had you not experienced an electoral campaign before this one?

The will of the electorate is to leave the EU. We were promised that if we voted to leave, we'd leave. I thought you disapproved of politicians who said they'd do one thing and then did another.

Clearly, only when it suits you.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

He campaigned on behalf of UKIP before the referendum.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Link?

And anyone who would smile at a country, which consists if 81.5 million men, women, and children, heading for a recession reflects badly upon that person, imho.

Anyway, The German government had a fiscal surplus of €58bn (£53.6bn) in 2018, so it has plenty of cash to spend, unlike the U.K., which had a budget deficit of £32bn.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Here's one wot i found

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49342244

and this
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...-latest-update

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Thanks, but the link requested was for the IMF Eurozone figures quoted, as highlighted in bold in his quoted post.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

You can Google it quite easily, which is what I did.

Papa and I thought you were referring to Germany's likely impending recession.

I wasn't laughing at Germany, I was laughing at those who cannot accept that the EU is not the safe harbour they believe it to be.. Of course I don't welcome such news. I was simply responding to your apparent view that we are better off in the EU. I'm afraid the union is beset with many problems now and in the near future and we don't want to be in it when it all kicks off.

Ah, here are the latest GDP figures.


https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...updateJuly2019

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Germanys downturn could be a benefit to a post brexit Britain so it's maybe not all bad.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

He's turning out to be quite a good PM so far, like a breath of fresh air.

Come the General Election, it looks like he'll sweep the board and at last we'll be able to get decisions made in the House of Commons again!

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Since I didn’t know the search terms you used, that would have been difficult... ;)

Thanks for the link - shame you didn’t know the difference between the Euro area and the EU...

From your link

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

He is just as bad as Corbyn... no ifs , no buts and no maybes...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

He's a lot more popular than Corbyn, and by the looks of it, he'll get this country moving forward again.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Splitting hairs? - the discussion was about contrasting future GDPs of the U.K. and the EU, which you then goal-post shuffled to being the Eurozone, which is only 2/3rds of the EU, and made a substantial difference to the GDP figures.

Nice try... :rolleyes:

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

A customs union for goods wouldn't have the same level of delays and extra costs.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

??

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49470831

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

So is someone telling porky pies...... I'll get my coat

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Tell that to Turkish exporters to the EU.

---------- Post added at 23:40 ---------- Previous post was at 23:30 ----------

Or he has been supplied with duff info. The core issue remains, could they be exported to Thailand or Iceland, but not to the US?
Link
Puts a very different light on things. The never ending distortion by the media.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

If BoJo’s point was that Melton Mowbray pork pies *can* be sold to Southeast Asia but *can’t* be sold to the USA, then the information on the company website backs him up, and he’s not lying.

Whether they presently do so, or the quantity that is sold, wasn’t the issue. He was talking about trade barriers. Funny how people claim to be so interested in facts when all they’re really interested in is a very thinly disguised straw man.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I've also seen suggestions that it is sold in those places and the guy was a former Labour candidate....

---------- Post added at 08:00 ---------- Previous post was at 07:56 ----------

Hardly Hugh's fault if the Head of thing is saying it's not true, that would normally be decent enough evidence. The BBC report as correctly quotes him as saying that rather than claiming independently that's it's not true.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

You appear to have accidently missed out the preceding lines in your quote... You would have thought the people who actually make and sell the pork pies would be believed...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

He doesn't make ALL pork pies. A company DID complain about problems exporting pork pies to the US, and used Thailand and Iceland as 2 of their 4 examples of countries that didn't have those problems. Thailand and Iceland weren't plucked out of the air.
Guardian


It's in this presentation document from 2015 in connection with TTIP. They only started exporting in August 2014.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Nobody is trying it on. Would you mind telling us what the difference is if you use the GDP for the whole of the EU? You are conspicuous by your silence on this point.

I used the Eurozone figures because these were set out in the IMF schedule.

Incidentally, did I mention that Germany now looked like going into a recession? The grass is not as green in the EU as some of you think.

---------- Post added at 14:48 ---------- Previous post was at 14:47 ----------

Correct, and press reports are now confirming that these pies have indeed been sold to them in the past.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Are these pork pies or pedant pies :shrug:
Thank [insert deity] Boris didn't mention pukka pies,we might well be in the midst of a civil war by now.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

You would have thought you would have ditched the straw man argument by now.

BoJo’s point was on the issue of trade barriers, not the current export quantities to any particular country.

The information he has relied on hasn’t been contradicted and supports his claim. The people who actually make and sell the pork pies, meanwhile, are answering a different question entirely, either due to the agenda of the querying journalist or one of their own.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Who gives a flying.............

If we’re arguing over pork pies, we have surely jumped the bexit shark.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Well make some allowances for it being silly season ... :D

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

The accusation is that he was telling lies on the matter. That has been conclusively disproved,


Now if he had claimed that Thatcher was responsible for closing Corby Steelworks and the coal mines, then nothing would really have been mentioned, even though it's untrue(Corby closed under Callaghan). That's assuming the media thought the incorrect claims weren't worth mentioning, and it wasn't because it WAS actually Corbyn and Labour making those untrue claims.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

I’m sure that made sense in your head...

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

oh well, it was fun while it lasted


any chance we can do the Red Bus one again? :D :D

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

Yes, but can we start having proper discussions about these things?

All this point scoring is childish and brings out the worst in everyone.

---------- Post added at 00:20 ---------- Previous post was at 00:15 ----------

The red bus thing is really a rallying point for the remainers, who refuse to accept the explanation for that figure.

If anyone thinks that is a convincing argument they are puttong forward, fine. But Brexiteers, who understand what is going on here, will not be convinced by that silly argument of theirs. They clearly don't understand the difference between 'gross' and 'net' and the fact that Maggie's concession can be overturned.

They deserve pity rather than outrage, I think.

Re: PM Boris forms a government
 

From 2017
The rebate has to be renewed with every budget. It hasn't been renewed. It has gone completely.
Link

If a business was always having to give you a 66% rebate, then you would assume they're overcharging you.


Germany

UK
Germany got a higher amount of EU funding as % of it's GNI. Germany 0.33%, UK 0.28%. Any money we get back is taken off the rebate, therefore at least 66% of the money has come from the UK in the first place, ie for every £3 of funding, £2 is knocked off the rebate and added to what we pay in. Factor that in and we actually get an even lower rate of EU funding. The UK contribution figure has the 66% rebate included, so without it, we will and have been expected to pay more as a % of GNI than Germany.