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We may or may not have had problems had we chosen to remain, but businesses would have been more confident to invest as they would have had at least a vague idea of what was going on. |
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As can be seen from the graph, this PMI has been on a downward trend for a couple of years. It also fluctuates wildly from month to month. It dropped dramatically just before the 2012 Olympics, however GDP shot upwards. |
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We'll find out soon enough if the predictions of a recession are true or not. No point arguing about it at the moment. I would say that many analysts seem to think it is but this is one of those things that will be proven right or wrong.
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Everyone's trying to create a juicy story out of something before the facts are properly known. The veracity of the data doesn't or the context doesn't seem to matter as much as creating something to fill the pages and airwaves with, much of it pure speculation...
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With 85% of the questionnaires in, I am fairly certain whatever the final 15% of them contains, it isn't going to change the outcome much.
Quote: Not sure how they can publish full July figures that quickly. Remember Stats are just that. Not fully as there is only 85% but it gives them a good idea from those 6oo firms. Ask another 600 firms and you would get a different answer. ---------- Post added at 10:16 ---------- Previous post was at 10:09 ---------- Quote:
The point is that it's not going to be the doom and gloom predicted. They're not investing because it's a bad thing, they are waiting to see how things go with the talks. The delay of A50 is going to cause more uncertainty and may even push any recession into 3 or even 4 quarters. That's not the fault of we who voted leave, its the fault of not invoking A50 when Cameron himself said he'd do it straight away. |
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The easiest way to get a representative cross-section is to ask random companies. If this isn't representative you just add more random samples.
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Very kind of you to doff your cap, Sir.
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The link was to a comedy site - it's not a real story....
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lol
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Where are you all hiding? This thread seams dead.
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There's not a lot to say right now.
However to help things out a bit, how about a story on how we could join the EEA on a Norway type deal and get an emergency break on immigration, a bit like the one we already had. Wouldn't be as good a deal as the current one, mind. Another one to help conversation is that, even if Article 50 were invoked, it can be withdrawn. Have at it. |
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Before anymore debate we need to see some action rather then the continual tit for tat amongst both sides.
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There is a good article here about the vote and what the coming consequences might be: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/john-la...r/brexit-blues
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Most of us don't want a Norway style deal only remainers would be happy with that what leavers want is no more money going from the UK to the EU, no more freedom of movement and no EU involvement in our internal affairs. If that means no access to the single market so be it we will develop trade elsewhere there is a vast amount waiting for us and more countries looking to develop trade with us then we'd lose in the medium to long-term. Short term yes we will take a hit but we will recover this country is more then able to survive outside the EU and the single market despite what the trendy doom sayers constantly repeat and a lot of them are just being selfish worried more about their financial investments then the real good of the UK.
Getting sick and tired of the constant talking down of the UK by a sizable group who know damn well that they are part of the problem, have more faith in your country and it's people most of whom have far less in material things but more faith in the ability if this country to succeed. |
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http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/35801633-post144.html http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/35...-post1444.html |
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I said most not all and clearly most don't want freedom of movement and as it was made clear we couldn't have access to the the single market unless we had freedom of movement clearly most people knew when they cast their vote and were happy to forego the single market. As to my comment on mainly remainers wanting the Norway style deal well they have been the only one's talking about it now being the best option so maybe get off your high horse a bit.
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Well I haven't heard any leavers opting for a Norway style deal either only time I've heard it talked about as a "best option" is by remainers so yes that's the overriding impression I've got and isn't that how we form opinions. Also hasn't taken you long to go into "didn't know what they were voting for" mode and again all the people I know that voted leave were well aware of what their vote meant and why they were choosing leave so most did know full well what they were voting for. I'll be happy to read about leavers being happy to accept a Norway style deal and being happy to accept freedom of movement as you clearly have that information.
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As not being in a single market DOESN'T mean no access, would there be a huge difference? Any restrictions or tariffs work BOTH ways. We can impose them on EU goods.
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I wonder how many people you know, 1.2 million or less http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7113336.html |
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Remember that although the EU trade is around 45% of our exports, it is less than 7% of our economy, even if that fell substantially it would not be disasterous as we'll be making up with increased trade elsewhere. Just look at the non-EU countries queueing up to do bi-lateral trade deals with us. |
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I hope serious thought is being given to our services especially financial, as it is one of our core strengths and that can't be stated enough, try as we might, we cannot match prices on manufacturing with other countries simply because as the 5th largest economy we also have an expensive cost of living, we can't match the likes of China or India and it would be futile to try.
We need to secure our future in the financial sector. I am concerned that France or Germany will snaffle up that and lock us out. Something to think about. |
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Perhaps, the 'passporting' issue is worrying though.
When I say Finance I am referring to our multi billion financial sector/banking/stock markets industry. |
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We have a skilled manufacturing base and we can expand that but it will require the means in place to train the people to occupy the skills gaps where they appear and it shouldn't just be government funding it. There is plenty of life out there for us to establish and build trade with we have got used to being in the EU and in some ways over reliant on a market that hasn't always been in our best interests. More and more countries are approaching us for trade and that will continue.
That link to the independent means absolutely nothing hell on the day the result was announced the campaign against the vote started and despite all these claims of hordes of leave voters regretting their choice I haven't seen it the area around me or anywhere on the net. I'm not convinced plus while it's likely there are some leavers who would vote differently the same applies to some who voted remain so means nothing. |
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Most remainers in this thread have had blinkers on ,they simply cannot see past the single market .According to them if we leave the single market we will have complete financial meltdown when according to a lot of financial experts (some i linked to earlier in the thread) the single market has been nothing but a hindrance to our trade .We need to dump the single market all together. ---------- Post added at 15:47 ---------- Previous post was at 15:41 ---------- Quote:
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Manufacturing is 10% of our GDP, and is already 44% of our exports, and we would need to import the raw materials to manufacture more...
https://www.eef.org.uk/campaigning/c...ts-and-figures |
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The financial sector won't want to be getting any more entwined with EU rules, regulations and bureaucracy that it absolutely has to. It's no accident that Paris and Frankfurt can't compete with London.
I really can't see many fat cat bankers wanting to relocate to Paris in a hurry... :erm: |
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Your quoting a media piece as proof tell me when the media suddenly became trustworthy and you say I'm funny that figure of 1.2 million is absolutely meaningless as there is zero proof to back it up. I'm sure there are those who voted leave but if they had the chance would vote remain but that also applies to people who voted remain who'd now vote leave and that's meaningless as well because we had the vote and the result is done. Shouting about some people voting leave being ignorant is also stupid how about all the people who voted remain based on this year's trip to Ibiza or mobile roaming charges, there are lazy and idiotic people in every vote this country holds but why all of a sudden it's become a reason for a second vote is ridiculous.
Everyone was so sure remain would win the vote hell I was one of them I just hoped it would be close enough to keep the issue alive but I watched as the results filed in and was gobsmacked when leave won. The response since the vote has been pathetic and the insults and insinuations thrown at leave voters is equally pathetic it's done and dusted now it's time to get behind it or go find a corner somewhere to sulk and shut up. |
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Umm not sure, but just in case anything is aimed in my direction. I voted Leave, but I do welcome debate.
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http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/surv...ferendum-world And at least those people that voted based on trivial stuff like roaming charges based their vote on truth rather than lies peddled on a bus Quote:
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/rememb...endum-5963900/ |
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Yes because opinion poll company's are always right they never get things wrong do they and opinion company's deliver the results a client wants lots of ways to tilt the results wording of the questions, demographics targeted and method of approach all contribute heavily to the answer you get. And yes I did read past the first line and as your more interested in being superior take it I'll just agree with whatever because it just isn't worth it anymore.
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Looks like interest rates will be moving next week.
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For myself I have no idea how she can promise no border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, other than the obvious. ---------- Post added at 12:12 ---------- Previous post was at 11:54 ---------- A last post before I try and focus on work again - Article 50 can be unilaterally rescinded by the UK. http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit...50-work-2016-7 I know I said in the past that that would be that when it's served, no way back, but I was wrong as indeed many people have been. I apologise to you guys for the misinformation. |
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Rather makes taking back control and ending free movement pointless if you have zero border controls with an EU state that's obviously still within the free movement area. Indeed Ireland would be wise when we exit to join Schengen. We were the main reason they didn't. |
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Ireland staying out of Schengen is their only hope of retaining the common travel area with the UK. The thing about free movement that causes trouble in the UK is not the fact that EU nationals come here without let or hindrance, it's that they can come, settle and work. I see no problem with an Eire outside Schengen (and therefore running passport checks on incomers) having an open border with the North, as EU citizens passing into Northern Ireland will no longer have the automatic right to take up a job when they arrive there (or when they cross to mainland GB and rock up anywhere else).
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It would be interesting to have an up to date poll to see how many would vote differently now things have settled down .Immediately after the vote the FTSE was nose diving and the media where predicting Armageddon ,now the public realise that nothing has actually changed and is not likely to for some time they might well poll differently to the one you link to . |
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This is actually the problem a lot of tech startups are expecting. Britain is not producing enough people that are in the various computer fields. That problem is, IMO, mostly caused by a lack of adequate funding for university and college courses from the government. |
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Let's say no Norway option. It's 'hard Brexit'. Does May invoke Article 50? |
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I'm more than aware that fat cats like Fred the Shred and high flying dealers aren't the bulk of the banking industry, they're just the easily lambasted tip of the iceberg. My late wife worked in the back office for a number of top City firms for a good many years and so did I in another incarnation. |
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You might be right about the poll, however if rbs follow through with their plans for charging negative interest on accounts it might even go up higher though especially if others follow suit ---------- Post added at 02:56 ---------- Previous post was at 02:53 ---------- Quote:
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I fully agree with you The Daddy the entire campaign from both sides was absolutely pathetic threats on one side lies and misinformation on the other and both indulging in scare mongering giving those who were truly undecided very little to help them make an informed choice. I tried much as I could to avoid either campaign for the last two months of it and my belief from before any of it started determined my vote as I think it did for many. It was not a high point of our politics and if there is any plus to come out of it surely things can only improve because god help us all if they get worse.
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All good news but the next 2 quarters will be the tell .Maybe May should build on that confidence and signal an end to austerity measures. |
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https://www.theguardian.com/business...-growth-figure |
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---------- Post added at 08:23 ---------- Previous post was at 08:11 ---------- TheDaddy said: You are funny, a million plus people regretting their vote means nothing and if you listened to the radio pre and post vote you'd know exactly how ignorant a lot of people were on the day, in your area or not. These people expressing regret are nervous of what may or may not happen. I, for one, have no regrets of my vote to leave because myself and others saw what was coming in 1975 and voted out feel vindicated. We also knew a leave vote had it's potential problems because we have become far too dependent on the EU and were losing the ability to think for ourselves and make our own decisions. This is where the fear of a leave vote comes in. Can we survive untied from Mother EU's apron strings? Of course we can. Countries are queuing up to trade with the UK and any loses incurred by leaving the EU will easily be recouped by trading with these countries. We do NOT need the single market, we never needed it. We were doing well without it until the Unions tried to hold the country to ransom and we lost a lot of trade. Had that not happened, we would not have needed it. I personally do not know anyone who regrets voting leave and they, like myself, say we should never have joined in the first place. ---------- Post added at 08:28 ---------- Previous post was at 08:23 ---------- So Lloyds are shedding another 3000 jobs and closing 200 branches and the nice thing about it is that it has nothing whatsoever to do with the vote to leave the EU. It leads me to believe that these Companies who threatened job losses should we vote to leave were going to shed jobs anyway and were looking for something to blame it on other than their own incompetence or the low, and possible lowering, of interest rates. Why worry about our Services industry? Are the EU countries the only ones we can sell them to? I think not. I'm sure China and India for example would be only too happy to buy them. ---------- Post added at 08:31 ---------- Previous post was at 08:28 ---------- Quote:
---------- Post added at 08:35 ---------- Previous post was at 08:31 ---------- Originally Posted by martyh View Post There where a lot of ignorant prats voting ,a few on here using the referendum as a protest vote to start with It would be interesting to have an up to date poll to see how many would vote differently now things have settled down .Immediately after the vote the FTSE was nose diving and the media where predicting Armageddon ,now the public realise that nothing has actually changed and is not likely to for some time they might well poll differently to the one you link to . A protest against what? Cameron? The Tory Government? You do that through the ballot box. I've never understood this statement of using the referendum as a protest vote. It's a hell of a risk to take especially if you believe we should remain in the EU, surely? |
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What's worrying is this 'hate crime'. I'm not sure it's accelerated so much but that more of it is being reported since the referendum. I know this because my wife is English and we lived in Edinburgh a while and she had a hard time with Anti-English sentiment from the family from hell upstairs.. This is why I live in North East England now. What I'm trying to point out to those who say it's a new thing is that it is not. It's always been there and always will be. Now me, I get called Jockanese down here and I love it. Doesn't worry me in the least but it's racist all the same. I ain't about to go running to the Polis to report it. |
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5+2 = 7 4+8 = 12 7 < 12 therefore we must have a second referendum. :D |
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I wish you'd accept that people are allowed to be unhappy with the result and, in a democracy, are under no obligation to accept it but we can't have everything. I'm with Ian Hislop on this one I'm afraid and looking at my LinkedIn and social media I'd like to think I have a life. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyyOyoeqKfM If you want an echo chamber where everyone is delighted with the referendum result and consider everything suggesting any negative connotations to the result as being propaganda there are plenty of them around. Yours, A Whinging Metropolitan Loser ;) |
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It's over now time for us all to calm down and I've suffered supposed hate crime in the UK many years before any referendum but didn't bother about it or even think about reporting it there have always been a minority that take any excuse to exercise their thug side.
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It seams to me that it is you who do not understand here. You do not need a second referendum on the EU. The Government are under no obligation to invoke Article 50 as a referendum is only a guideline and is not legally binding. Therefore, you should be concentrating your efforts on the Government stating your reasons why they should not invoke A50 and not wasting your time demanding a second referendum which is not going to happen. In both cases, can you imagine the trouble in this country if the Government ignored the result of the referendum or refused to invoke A50? ---------- Post added at 07:05 ---------- Previous post was at 07:02 ---------- Quote:
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I am not demanding a second referendum. I am aware it's not going to happen.
I will remind you that the petition that was submitted was actually produced by someone in favour of Brexit. People didn't just get a life and get over it after 1975. Don't see why it should be any different in 2016 just because the result went the other way. No idea what you mean regarding trouble that would happen. We will see I guess. Funny how people are obsessed with democracy suddenly having just had the least representative election in living memory, having an unelected second chamber still, and in many cases having voted away the most representative election they got to participate in. |
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I see it as my fundamental right to be able say I told you so at all and every opportunity..we do still have free speech provided it isn't a hate crime.. |
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Well I don't know about you but my mates and I spent many an hour contemplating the cold war and nuclear armageddon. The future didn't look all that bright then, in fact it looked MAD...
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The point is that it was right and proper to have a referendum now, because the basis of the 1975 one has changed. The 2016 didn't overturn the 1975 one as they were based on different questions.
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By trouble, I mean there would be riots by Brexiters if the Government ignored the referendum and didn't invoke Article 50. Actually most of us did after 1975 but that's history now. I feel vindicated now we have voted to leave as I did in 1975 but there will always be unhappy people. Petition, I didn't even look at it. ---------- Post added at 11:15 ---------- Previous post was at 11:05 ---------- Quote:
I was told off for using the word ****** and I wasn't even referring to gay people I was referring to the food Brain's ******s. Sorry not trying to get round the filter. I wasn't aware that word was swearing. It was an example of where we do not have freedom of speech as some think. There is a lot we can't say for fear of offending someone so I ask again, how do we have freedom of speech? Freedom of speech is a thing of the past. Yes I can say things like F the Queen or the Government but I'm sure if a Polis heard me he'd pull me up for it. You can't even insult someone now without risking Court Action. You are very much mistaken if you believe we still have freedom of speech in this country friend. It just isn't as bad as it is in other countries yet. ---------- Post added at 11:22 ---------- Previous post was at 11:15 ---------- Quote:
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