Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

What was the Greek share for rescuing their country? Perhaps if the banks hadn't been asked to take 50% losses on Greek debt, then matbe the Cypriot banks would have been in better shape and it could of prevented all this bother.

Just wait until the Spanish banks(especially the local ones, the caja) finally reveal their true levels of debt.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The reality is that this was a difficult and complicated scenario which had no easy answers and whose cause will be reflected upon for many months. People can engage with anti-German retoric or conspiracy theories but what they cannot do is come up with an alternative answer to how to solve this case. What else could have been done? Each other outcome was imperfect, ripe for conspiracy theorists, and would have caused harm. Cyprus were never going to walk away from this in a way which would have pleased it's people.

The dye was cast when the banks collapsed. As far as I am aware none of the other countries that have required an EU Bailout had such a distorted offshore banking industry. It meant that the banks could take the entire country with it and made the politics of the bailout especially difficult.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

That's just the Mod in you talking Herr Hugh. ;)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I believe Greece privated some assets that were they owned and could make substantial savings by having an austerity program. They had generous entitlements and low tax revenues (because people weren't paying tax) so could come up with a plan to raise their contribution. Remember though that a bunch of creditors that to write off their money as well and, as you say, that included Cyprus.

Greece though had some advantages. They were big enough to bring down the Eurozone. Cyprus were not and there was little exposure to their debt to bring down banks elsewhere, they also had the disadvantage of increasingly bailout fatigue in the other European Countries.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

seems that the cypriot government have bottled it and won't re-open banks before thursday now and will place restrictions on moving money .

Doesn't matter when they re-open them they are just delaying the inevitable

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The bailout is just delaying the inevitable which is a full blown crash and them leaving the Euro wreck.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Hmm!

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

People and into each other. So a lot of our own Government debt is tied up in bonds and pensions and so on. It's like America obsessed with China owning their debt when actually most of American debt is held by Americans themselves.

Over oversimplification is that the world is in debt to it's citizens.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

So in other words it us who are to blame..not the bankers or the government because it's all a house of cards.

Tell me.How did I build this house of cards?Or was it erected in my name without it ever being explained to me?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

It was clear to me years ago that Brown's boom was a house of cards but, of course, politicians rather like riding high on the crest of a wave and only tend to dwell briefly on life's little realities when they're out of office trying to get back in.

A great many people were to blame for what's happened but the people most culpable are those who either knew what was really going on and did nothing about it or were so inept they shouldn't have been in office. These people would include ministers, regulators, boardroom directors and traders. Of course Joe 'keep up with the Jones' Public played his part by all too often borrowing and spending on the back of house prices and easily available credit. Holidays, nice cars, meals out, fancy clothes, etc. etc. - all for doing little or nothing. Nice work if you can get it eh?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I am just talking about Government debt. The idea the whole world is in debt isn't correct, it's only correct if you remove private companies or individuals from the equation. It's obviously going to look like the entire world is in debt if you ignore privately owned debt. It isn't about who to blame, just answering the slogan that guy had written on the card.

The level of debt the Government takes out, the amount of bonds it issues, and how it manages it is their own problem. We're not at fault if our pensions are wrapped up in Government issued bonds after all (although I guess you could argue you're lending to a irresponsible borrower! :D). As for the bankers they are the ones who so often in charge of their client's money and they're the ones who choose where to invest it. If they invest it in risky mortgages or banks then they're responsible.

I wouldn't say it's a house of cards either. More like a giant loop.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

So people who chose to invest in banks/schemes which are paying well over the top interest/returns (e.g. IceSave, Madoff) have no responsibility for being greedy, naive or whatever? Isn't there a load of Russian money in Cypriot banks because they were paying greater returns and asking fewer questions than elsewhere? "If it sounds to good to be true it probably is " isn't an abstract concept yet still naive, stupid and greedy people fall for scams every day...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

All I am saying is that the reason why it looks like most the world is in debt is because a nation's debt is not only owned by other nations by private holders. Yes people that make risky investments are partly to blame but that's not really related to the main point I was making. I was just saying a person whose pension is invested in bonds isn't really to blame the the Government issuing bonds they can't afford.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Well I agree about that. I hope you've reflected on that fact in your decision about your own personal pension. ;)

(ps I can offer you no risk, annual returns of 20-30% if you invest your excess cash with me. Honest guv'.... :D)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

At one point or another there'll have to be a massive debt write-off... it will hurt the rich,i.e those who pocket the interest,the most,but I just don't see how we'll ever repay our debts....

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The Government is always likely to be in some form of debt. It's not necessarily a problem as long as it's not too big, cheap, and we're not running a structural deficit.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Is osbourne nuts or what he surely aint got money in laiki bank or buddies. Now looking way to rescue the uk branches protect the funds.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...cyprus-bailout

We should not be bailing the bank 4 branches out in any shape or form. Its no doubt the move already caters for these branches any interference means worse for those in the cyprus branches. Haircut could go on savings less than €100.000 if we succeed.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Oh yeah,the whole system is designed like that.In Fact nobody really wants a debt-free world cause it's easy money.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

We are not part of the Euro wreck so why are we being drawn into it :mad:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Same way we were drawn into the Iceland crisis. People had money in those accounts.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

A very bleak analysis from Newsnight's Paul Mason in Cyprus:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-21966775

Long, but worth reading in full.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I found this fact interesting:

Double standards anyone?

Anyway, one good thing about this whole debacle may be that what's gone on in Cyprus sees an end to the queue of small, relatively poor countries seeking admission to the club. The Eurozone has grown too big, too fast and that fact is now undeniable.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Here's an interesting read:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21974496

I've long thought that this sort of discontent was inevitable as both sides understandably take a rather biased view of the same situation. Yes the Germans have stumped up loads of money but their economy has been by far the biggest beneficiary of EU policy whilst other, weaker economies have been further damaged by the lack of economic policy options open to them. If the Euro were to collapse and the DM be readopted then the German economy would soon be subject to the sort of pressures on exports which come with a currency that is strong. How long before jobs start getting shed and Germany's finger of blame was pointed at those 'ungrateful' nations who 'sabotaged' the grand EU plan? For there to be such discontent in Germany at a time when they've been doing well (for the most part) just goes to show how much more unrest there would be if the German economy really faltered and unemployment, etc. there started to climb.

Let's hope it doesn't escalate to the point where extremists on either side succeed in exploiting the situation and setting off a tinderbox of resentment and recriminations in Europe.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Germany MUST control, its in there nature and they want to control the direct Europe is taking. Now they have tried many way to do it and the latest is financial. I am not saying they would go to war again because they will not be that stupid, however they ARE trying to be the controlling nation of the Euro and that worries me very much.

Any before Damien jumps in and claims this is me bringing up the war again its not. I am NOT saying Germany will start another war i am saying it is in there nature to control and they want to control the direction the EU is going in for there own ends and if they must do it by bailing other countries out they will. They will recall there markers in the future mark my words.

We all see how the Germans are on Holiday when they MUST have the best sun beds, the best tables, the best area around the pool and they will get up at 4.00 am to ensure they get them :LOL:

I have never liked or trusted the Germans and never will, and yes i have lived in there country

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

To be fair that's mainly because most Brits are still out clubbing at 4.00am... :D

Germans and sunbeds? Check this out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuIJqF8av6I

:D

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Excellent :)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I see France and Germany have buried there heads in the sand. :rolleyes:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22000196

Lets get it over with ready for the vote.

I just wish the vote was next week and then its over and done with.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22058461

I imagine anyone with more than €100,000 in a Portuguese bank will be quickly looking for somewhere safe to stash it.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

No, no, no... The Cyprus bank robbery was a one-off remember!! :rolleyes:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

And if anyone believes that I have some magic beans they may be interested in.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I bet they're made in Germany... :D

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Are they Euro beans, guaranteed to grow if you are among the EU elite :rolleyes:

Well they are among the Elite

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Oops. Looks like Cyprus might not be out the woods just yet.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...-analysis-bill

And even if they manage to find another 6 billion euros down the back of the sofa, or more likely in the accounts of their residents, they could still be in the brown stuff.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Can't see them being able to raise a further 6 billion, they might just let them collapse.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

What is is they say about pride coming before a fall?

The Eurocrats need to start accepting what's been staring them in the face that the game is up and the Euro can't continue in its present form. Far better to restructure the club and allow some members to leave in a relatively orderly fashion than to carry on pursuing the grand project in denial until it all collapses. Yes there'll be short term turmoil if Cyprus and others have to leave but that prospect must have been factored in already to some extent by the markets (whose decisions aren't governed by political expediency) so it wouldn't be a complete surprise. It'd be like lancing a boil - painful in the shirt term but necessary for recovery.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

If they let them collapse it could just be the start

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Cyprus collapsing wouldn't be big enough to bring the Euro down. It would set a precedent but not many would want to follow...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

agreed cant see cyprus raising further 6bn unless they raid uk cyprus branches that got exempt the coalition would not like that after the deal they did to get them exempt.


Interesting piece from Austria.

Cant argue we should sort our mess out.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...inister-uk-tax
Seems Austria next in line it seems.

They right hope government do something to sort it out. Otherwise this could turn ugly or embarrising depending how osbourne, cameron how they respond on our issue.

Why possible 2015 whats luxembourg upto trying to help its customers move it to another tax haven?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

"want" isn't so much the issue. Once the Euro is shown to be reversible its credibility is holed below the water line and its demise becomes a matter of when, rather than if.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I don't think it's necessarily a matter of when. It may prove to be reversible but it would involve a lot of pain and the circumstances extreme. I can't imagine France for example wanting to bring back the Franc. If some of the other countries do leave the Eurozone and it's subsequently reformed then it could emerge stronger...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I think it's Germany that should leave the Euro and let the remainder of the Zone get on with it...
Once Germany is out I think it would be much easier for the others due to similar-ish economic strength.The way it is right now Germany expects everybody else to implement or closely copy their economic model and that just isn't feasible,and most certainly for many downright undesirable.

I guess the German government set itself and the German economy up as the winners in all of this but then they might as well just have won the war. It's part of the German psyche,their inherent fault,to always want to win and be the best no matter the cost.... I guess that can be an advantage but all too often it seems rather a negative trait,a trait that once more threatens to divide and destroy Europe... what good is being the best if you have no friends left? ;)

So,if Germany gets it's Deutsche Mark back and the rest of the Euro-zone could have a much weaker Euro then the balance may once more be restored,maybe?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Soros said this too germany should leave the Euro. Makes sense let smaller countries sort themselves out with euro bonds.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/n...s-or-euro-exit

full speech here below

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...-crisis-speech

Soros right he sounds like wants stimulus programme yes dont like way he makes money but if bound holder now tell ing germany its austerity programme wrong they better start listening.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The German psyche is no more controlling or dominating than others. It always amuses me when people bring that up, usually in connection with the war, conveniently forgetting that one of the biggest Empires that the world has ever known was British. We came, we saw, we conquered and took their resources. The Germans aspire for power no more than we do. It's also pretty faulty logic to assume such traits are genetically passed down the generations. Countries use the circumstances to their advantage and we do the same.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

No offence Damien,I was raised in Germany from the age of 6 and had a German step-dad who's father came back from the Eastern Front a paranoid schizophrenic who,in his clearer moments,told me why he went to war and what it was about for him and his fellow soldiers.

I've lived and worked among the Krauts and rest assured it is inherent to the German spirit to win and dominate,and to a bloody fault indeed. National Socialism didn't happen to the Germans by coincidence,but rather to a Nation that has looked up to and believed in superior authority emanating from a single leader/ruler for over a Thousand Years....
A Nation that has an inherent inferiority complex since it only really came into existence as a whole in 1871 and secretly felt that it was lacking in relation to other countries and their achievements.

quite frankly,Germany has only had Democracy for a tad over sixty years and they're still just warming to it. Just look at what happened to the Weimar Republic and how miserably that failed.

It's no accident that Germany once more is in a position where other's must bow to it's model and way of life.

There is a saying in German : 'Am Deutschen Wesen soll die Welt genesen.'

the German spirit shall heal the world.... in German it's even more ominous and many Germans do believe their system and way of Life to be the best. Well,it is a good system in many ways but in many other's doesn't leave much room for compromise,which is now visible in it's dealings with the Eurozone.






Well,but Britain also spread Democracy,spread it's educational system,helped build economies and did indeed found that Commonwealth that many countries today are happy to be a member of. The Empire did a lot of good as well as some bad.
What however wasn't the case was that the British believed that they were so much better than anybody else that other's must bow to it's bloody regime of fear and accept the King as the Leader,the one and only.And MOST CERTAINLY did Britain not make out one race or religion that was so inferior that it must be killed on an Industrial scale and wiped off the face of the earth.....

Who's talking genetics? I'm talking about psychological traits and patterns that do indeed get passed on from generation to generation,and every Nation has inherent strengths and weaknesses...

British are great at Music,French do Cuisine,Italians design and Germans are top Engineers.... just like people,and Nation's are indeed the sums of their people,we all have our little strengths.

and yes,everyone tries to use circumstances to their advantage but with Germans it just always seems like they alienate everybody else to the extreme while doing so.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

We have the Monarch and several references littered to God in our society. We too have the concept of a superior authority. I also think that it being inherent to win and dominate is rather vague, it seems a natural part of the human condition, and still no real basis on which to assume that Germany are especially bad for it. Again British History is rife with war, competition, oppression and domination.

We tend to overstate the positive and minimise the negative. Assuming we brought Democracy to the world is rather tricky, we tended to get kicked out of places for a lack of it, even if the subsequent Democracies were inspired by us afterwards. Let's not forget the pillaging of resources, the concentration camps, or the massacres. Whatever we may tell ourselves it's clear that the British Empire is not remembered with fondness amongst many of it's people.

Anyway my point isn't to say the British Empire was the moral equivalent of Nazi Germany, it clearly wasn't, but it does show a historic trait to dominate and invade other countries. If we're accusing Germany of having those characteristics then we have to apply them to ourselves. Interestingly you seem to be defending our Empire on the basis it did a lot of good. We may have invaded them but we improved them, sounds rather controlling to me, like we know best, it's almost socialist ;).

Basically it's a bit rich for a British person to accuse other nations of being dominating. Someone who wasn't British would think it's a remarkably audacious accusation for us to make.

Well we clearly did have ideas of our own importance. We didn't want to wipe out an entire race of course, that is a particular kind of evil that I don't think we can say was a product of Hitler's time in Germany. Anti-Semitism was prevalent across Europe of course

It can be partly true but these are rather broad stereotypes. You need to look at the reasons why countries remain strong at certain tasks. British Music is helped by the sheer volume of acts for people to follow and be inspired by as well and the benefit of the language.

How has a Germany desire to dominate being passed down? If anything the horror of their history has calmed any such desire. Also why wasn't it passed down amongst the English?

Negative stereotypes cloud our judgement.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I suspect the stereotypes of which you speak are found on both sides and the extent to which they're positive or negative is subjective.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22151472

Hmm... I hope these people have been a bit more diligent in checking the facts than those who were responsible for checking Greece's books prior to admission to the Eurozone.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...sing-says.html

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

These would be the same people that forecast Portugal was on its way to growth. That's Portugal, which still has a massive hole in its finances and is not so far off asking for another bail-out.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

You're not suggesting they're putting a bit of a 'gloss' on things are you? :confused:

I'm sure it's for our own good anyway, these people know best after all... :rolleyes:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Now germany proposing Asset Tax.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...bail-outs.html

suprised this figures here is the median wealth nations shame uks not in would love to find ours to compare.

No wonder with that figures germany did push for haircut.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22290422

Another economy built and now failing on the back of a property boom.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

If the Independent believes the extremely mild fiscal contraction taking place in the UK is in any way comparable with the vicious spending cuts being imposed on the Club Med Euro states, then it is economically illiterate. However, I am quite sure it is fully aware of what it is doing, namely using the vague word 'austerity' and assuming its readers are too stupid or too prejudiced to bother looking behind it to see what it actually means.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

We certainly haven't suffered 'austerity' anywhere near on the same scale as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus etc.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Thats because we are not part of the Euro wreck :D

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Having properly read that article (another opinion piece, incidentally), I think its cavalier treatment of fact is disgraceful, especially given the qualifications and the experience of its author.

The countries he cites have been suffering savage cuts that vary from four to 12 times worse than anything we have seen in the UK. the medicine is too severe and is killing those economies. Here in the UK on the other hand the 'austerity' amounts to no more than 1pc of GDP. We have no catastrophic rise in unemployment (in fact, we have rising employment and a small, recent rise in our unemployment stats can be explained as still more people wishing to become economically active and registering as looking for work); the deficit, like an oil tanker, has finally started to respond to the helm; and the economy is growing, weakly but ahead of expectations.

The simple fact is this: you don't solve a debt crisis by piling on more debt. A further simple fact is this: the Club Med problem is of a completely different order and nature than the UK problem. Their currencies have been pegged to the D-Mark and the cracks wallpapered over with € symbols. The Eurocrats won't countenance any talk of the actual problem (the Euro) or the actual solution (breaking up the Euro) so they are perpetrating fiscal terrorism on the Club Med states in order to bring wage-earners to their knees and make them work for a pittance in Euros.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I dare say 'qualifications and experience' come second to short term political goals even when the stakes are as high as this.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Every time this thread appears in the "Todays posts" part of the forum i read the title " Eurozone will collapse..." and immediately think "i wish it would bloody well hurry up and collapse"

Just thought i'd get that of my chest :)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

lol

I don't want it to collapse - I'd prefer there to be an orderly restructuring and an abandonment of the single state/currency nonsense which is at the root of all the problems. Sadly it seems the Eurocrats are prepared to push Europe right to the edge of oblivion in order to pursue their misguided dream. Let's hope they don't wind up pushing us all over the edge.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I will smoke a cigar and have a good tot of whiskey when it finally bites the dust. I just hope that day comes soon.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I have a nice cuban around somewhere

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

why would you want to smoke a boot :confused::)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

:rofl:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22369765

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Oskar Lafontaine, the German finance minister who launched the Euro, has called for the "catastrophic" single currency to be broken up:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...broken-up.html

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The EU elite are to far into this now to turn back. They will let it play out until it collapses. I feel the end game is not that far off how ever now that even the person who created the dam mess thinks it should be put down.

The sooner the better

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

There we are - he's obviously been reading this thread. :D

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I so wish some of them would, however there that thick skinned and stuck in there ways they would think we wanted the Euro to succeed :)

I remember this bit

He need's to get of his high horse :)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...broken-up.html

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Each day the pressure mounts.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22429790

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I see Nick Clegg was on tv this morning still peddling the lie that 3m people would be made unemployed pretty much overnight if the UK withdrew from the EU.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

It's not his fault, he's a creature of the EU system, thoroughly brainwashed throughout his adult life. He actually believes the EU is a great idea.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I gave up listening to that man after he sold is soul for a taste of power.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I don't know where the three million figure comes from but it's not inconceivable that there would be consequences to leaving a trade zone which accounts for around 50% of our trade, even taking into account that the trade zone in question is mired in recession. If we can keep our place within the single market then that would be swell but it seems rather pick and choose and we may not be granted it.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Yes and of course the long this 'monster' endures, the more there are who've known nothing else. Even if we leave, if the EU were to collapse it'd be catastrophic but there's still time to have an orderly restructuring, if only the Eurocrats can be made to see sense before the wheels come off... :erm:

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Of course, all those German car manufacturers would be delighted to see the UK denied an accommodation on trade. As would just about every business in Eire that exports anything to anywhere. Ditto the Spanish strawberry growers, happily planting away right now, in time to send us juicy ripe fruit by the truck load, just in time for Wimbledon.

We have a trade deficit with the EU. There is no way on Earth that the organisation would fail to agree trade terms with the UK as a part of exit agreements. To suggest otherwise is disingenuous.

And our trade with the EU is not 'around 50%'. It dropped below 44% last September and the indications are that it is continuing to drop. At the same time our exports to south America and the far east are increasing rapidly. For the sake of simplicity I'm not going to address the vexed question of exactly how much of our trade with the rest of the world is officially counted as an export to the EU, for the simple reason that some goods are sent from the UK to Rotterdam for onward shipment.

Heed the lessons from history: Britain has always succeeded when it has set its sights on the world. It has always become bogged down when it has allowed itself to become entangled in the affairs of continental Europe. It was ever thus, and in 50 years time we will look back and see our insane dalliance with the EU in that same context.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Surely though trade within the EU is dependent upon us supplying what is wanted not dependent on EU membership,if we leave the EU and continue to provide what is wanted then we will continue to sell it .

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

We have a trade deficit now. However as much as the EU is dropping that is not a constant. Just because it's dropping now doesn't mean it will continue to do so. When the economies in Europe recover then they'll become a massive trading block for us again. Not to mention they're in the middle of getting America to sign a free trade deal with the EU.

It's not just a case of who would want us to be their customers, it's also a case of who would want the jobs that we currently have. There will be companies in France, Germany, Spain who wouldn't mind seeing our exports hit with a tariff. We still make quite a lot of car parts for example and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that another country would want those contracts and have a equally as much as an interest in kicking us out as the car manufacturers have in keeping us in. Especially if the prospect of America opens up to them, then they won't really lose as much in terms of possible customers.

It's not just buying/selling. It's the ease in which these European companies can diversify their operations across the continent in terms of resources and staff.

---------- Post added at 11:02 ---------- Previous post was at 10:51 ----------

I should point out that I am not saying that we're certainly lose from leaving the EU but that's it's not so cut and dried that we'll gain either.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I feel that if the Common market had stayed as the common market we would not be in the position we are in now with the smaller countries in the EU in massive debt and who owe large amounts of money to a few elite members of the Euro club.

The common market started out and should have stayed as trade system between member countries and not what it is now or what they want it to become which is a European super state, one that is if you listen to the likes of Germany something to push for.

WHY you may ask do they want a united European super state because countries like Germany are able to control the EU and by that control they would make a large amount of money, even now they already have countries who now owe them one for helping them with huge amounts of money. Money that the likes of Germany make because of there position within the EU in the first place. The smaller less powerful countries get to be told what to do, who to trade with, which country gets which contract and how much they make on that contract, who can trade with who and why, what to say publicly, when to do it and what laws they are allowed to make or not. then there is the fact that they now seem to be able to force countries to raid peoples bank accounts at will, Seems to me like a few countries now control Europe already and that is something i want non of.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

These arguments are a busted flush, Damien. All of them were made in one form or another when the Euro was proposed and Britain indicated it would not join. Being outside the currency used by all the powerhouse economies of Europe - back in the days when they were powerhouses - was insane, we were warned, no sensible corporation would saddle itself with massive exchange risk by basing operations here when it could just as easily set up in Spain. Just try telling any of that to the people of Sunderland.

The EU is crippling itself with massive labour market regulation. It would not be at all difficult for the UK to compensate for any additional costs (whose inevitability I by no means accept, by the way) with flexibility.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

IIRC our export figures with the EU are overstated (and consequently our non-EU exports understated) since the former appear to include products that are actually destined for non-EU countries but are shipped via Rotterdam and Antwerp.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/da...t-by-the-hour/

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I don't think they are a busted flush. If that were the case then we wouldn't be so keen to continue to make free-trade deals. There is little appetite for a single currencies but there continues to be incentives to cut the cost of trade between nations. They're not the same thing.

We wouldn't just be leaving the bloc that accounts for 44% of our trade (which is no small number). We would be leaving our other trade deals too, including the prospective one with America, and left to renegotiate them on our own terms. Being able to offer 500 million consumers is a better position to be in than offering 62 million people.

We will also be leaving the system that allows for free movement across the continent which is useful for these pan-European countries. It's especially useful for banks and software development. Look to the attempts to cultivate a Silicon Valley Rival around Old Street (imaginatively named 'Silicon Roundabout') which is drawing in developers and designers from across Europe. We would want to keep that as well but that is far more politically difficult to maintain than arguing to keep the trade deals given the pressure to control immigration.

The EU is a bit of a mess. I would love to go for a Europe-lite that allows us to keep the stuff I mentioned above, the ECHR, and some standards. I hope Cameron negotiates something akin to that although it's very unlikely. However I am not convinced that leaving is a sure-fire bet without consequences.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Your argument is a non sequitur.

The position that the UK is at a disadvantage when it withdraws from the fundamental structures of the EU is untenable. We know it to be so, because we are not in the Euro and none of the supposed catastrophes which were made in the late 1990s, and which are being made again now, have come to pass.

You seem to suggest that a keenness to make free trade deals demonstrates that your argument is valid but I can see no logical connection between the two (please offer one!). Remember though that free trade deals are negotiated for us by the EU, so British keenness on such deals is neither here nor there. It certainly doesn't demonstrate that we're working harder to counteract the supposed disadvantages of being in the EU.

Remember that ultimately, control of a currency is not about deciding who is printed on the bank notes or making it cheaper or more expensive for businesses to operate across borders. Monetary policy is a key weapon in any government's arsenal which it must have at its disposal if it is to be in control of its economy. The Eurozone states have surrendered that control and they are paying the price. We have not surrendered that control and we are sheltered from the worst of the continental depression as a result.

The problem with the EU is that while it doesn't have our monetary policy under its control, it has a whole lot else. Our government cannot, for example, pursue a sensible energy policy (whatever you think about coal, shutting down our remaining coal power stations now, before we have adequate capacity to replace them, is insane - but we are compelled to do so anyway, despite the risks to our energy security and the costs to our economy).

And yes, trade policy. Though I'm not sure your example is a good advert for EU trade policy. How many years has the EU existed, and it is only just getting around to forging a deal with the biggest economy on earth? I like to think that we can do better, as our national instinct is not to regulate as heavily as the EU is prone to. I'm confident that we can get trade deals in place with all the countries that matter, reasonably quickly. As for population size, that is less important than the size of the economy. The UK has the 6th largest economy in the world and the 2nd largest in Europe. In fact, the EU will have a problem of its own, touting the size and desirability of 'its' economy to potential trade partners, if the UK's GDP isn't there to make its figures look rosy.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I am saying that the Euro and free trade deals aren't the same thing. The drawbacks of the Euro do not apply to free trade deals and the fact that the arguments for the Euro were proven wrong doesn't mean that the arguments for the single market are also wrong. You're the one making the connection between the two, I think they're separate issues.

The EU would have problems but so would we. Europe has a whole is more attractive to the US and than any one part of it.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

With all the quarrelling, uncertainty and resentment that's bound to erupt in Europe I don't the the EU is going to be very appealling to anyone for long.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

You're assuming it's a case of either/or for the USA - which IMO is a baseless assumption. The USA is a growing capitalist economy. You don't take one or other other of something if you can take both. And I come back to the point that it has taken the EU how many decades even to get this far?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I am not saying the US will choose or the other but that our position in negotiations will be weaker than it would be as a collective with Europe. It has taken a while but given the difficulty in securing such agreements it's not a massive surprise, the US hardly has agreements in place with loads of other countries. Still it's took ages and will probably takes ages to agree still.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Again, I don't agree. Reciprocal trade deals are not simply a case of "I won't put tariffs on yours if you don't put tariffs on mine". There are a whole pile of additional considerations arising from whatever regulations exist in the territory you wish to sell into. In the case of the EU the regulation is vast and often arcane. The UK, when left to itself, tends towards less regulation than the EU. This offers us a potential advantage.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

That does offer us an advantage but the terms of the agreement can depend on the strength of your hand when you enter the negotiations, entering it as the entire European single market is a better position than the UK on it's own. A trade deal would help us more than the US given the size of their economy compared to our own.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

My dislike of the European way is not only around imports and exports. I hate the way we must do as we are told by Brussels, that we must allow people that have moved here to work and are not yet working access to benefits and housing that our own people even have trouble claiming for, then we have to let them send the money to there families in there own country, how we cannot kick out known terrorists from this country unless they say we can, how there laws seem to take precedence over our own, How we cannot control our own borders, how an unelected bureaucrats in Brussels can dictate to us over our own elected Mp's. the list goes on and on and i for one do not want to be ruled by Brussels or the countries who think the only way forward is a United States Of Sodding Europe.

Roll on the referendum.

I seem to have heard Dave make a similar claim before and then refuse to hold to it. :scratch:

You lied once to us i feel you will lie again

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Sirius, when was a referendum on Europe promised before? (serious/Sirius question, as I can't find anything on t'intraweeb).

The only thing I can find is on page 113 of the 2010 manifesto

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I stand corrected, this was what he lied about

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...on-Treaty.html

Therefor how can we trust him not to do the same trick and lie AGAIN. He is not trustworthy when it comes to his promises and his offer of a referendum.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Thanks for that.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Your welcome :)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

But he didnt exactly lie. Gorden signed the treaty BEFORE the GE. Once the treaty was signed it was too late it was already law no going back without a FULL withdral which was not the pledge.

He also made it VERY clear BEFORE the election that a referendum would not be possiable due to the above, the referendum was nevr part of the manafasto and that was the exact reason this pledge became an election promise

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I don't trust him, he will find a way to get out of this referendum.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Yeah kinda harsh on Cameron. Besides he isn't in a position to back down from the referendum but he clearly wants it on his terms and as a carrot for the election.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

If he wants my vote at the next election he needs to bring in the legislation required before the election that the referendum will happen and he should make it so the others cannot cancel it.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

He didn't lie, but neither did he tell the whole truth, and that can get you in equal heaps of trouble in court.

The referendum was cancelled because once a treaty is signed it becomes part of the overall stuff of the EU and ceases to exist as a distinct document that can be voted on and rejected. So Cameron was right to that extent. But on the other hand, he knew the limitations of his promise when he made it, and failed to be clear about it.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I think it's called "being economical with the truth"...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Something i now expect from Cameron. He seems to be very good at wording a reply that can be taken in more than one way.