Cable Forum - Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35727792)

Wouldn't they be better together :D

Not if Cameron's singing is anything to by :D
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0flxQCmb5oY

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Potential for ‘deep recession’ if Scotland goes solo

http://www.ftadviser.com/2014/09/09/...P/article.html

Quote:

Credit Suisse economists have added to the gloomy predictions as to what could happen should Scotland leave the UK.

The Swiss bank’s economists reckon that Scotland would slump into a “deep recession” if it secedes from the UK, and deposit flight from its banking sector is both “highly likely and highly problematic”, given the size of the embryonic country’s financial sector.

Not Westminster, Not Better Together, but Credit Swiss.

---------- Post added at 21:25 ---------- Previous post was at 21:19 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35727755)

Interesting interview with Pat Cox, former EU president..

Blows some of the BT assertions about the EU out of the water.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9NcuGVtGfY

Here is a good, balanced, article about the issue: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-key-questions

Quote:

Will Scotland join the EU

Yes. Almost certainly. But it will not be as easy or as quick as Scotland’s first minister Alex Salmond and the yes camp say. The issue sits astride a legal conundrum. There is no provision in the EU treaties for a member state of the EU falling apart, with the breakaway part then joining the EU. Legal problems abound. Scotland will probably have to apply to join, says Brussels. That needs the agreement of the other 28. There will be humming and hawing in Spain, Belgium and other countries facing separatist challenges.

But in the end politics will trump legal niceties. It will be very difficult for Brussels to ignore a free, peaceful, democratic referendum outcome without looking anti-democratic. Besides, the entire body of EU law and regulation already applies in Scotland, so negotiations should be relatively smooth.

But there will be arguments over the UK rebate from the EU budget and over the euro single currency (all new members have to commit to join it). Membership needs to be ratified by the other 28 parliaments and the European parliament. Salmond claims it can all be done in 18 months. That looks like wishful thinking.

and as for borders:

Quote:

Would I need a passport to cross the Scottish border?

A deal to keep an independent Scotland within the common travel area – as the Scottish government proposes, and as Ireland already is – looks to be the most straightforward and workable solution. But political rows over immigration could be a real obstacle. It is hard to see a Westminster government of whatever hue signing up to an open border agreement with an independent Scotland that is taking a markedly different tack on immigrants. (The first minister, Alex Salmond, has said he wants to see net migration rise to about 24,000 a year.)

The issue of EU membership makes this yet more twisty. Should Salmond be wrong about the smooth transition to full EU membership, the Schengen problem could become very real. Given current attitudes to the EU and immigration within the wider UK, it is not hard to assume that if Scotland has to sign up to free movement for all EU nationals, the rest of the UK would be even more inclined to shut the door. Until there is a clearer answer on Scotland’s future membership of the EU, the passport issue is likely to remain unresolved. CP

Read the whole article however. It's good.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35727810)

Potential for ‘deep recession’ if Scotland goes solo

http://www.ftadviser.com/2014/09/09/...P/article.html

Not Westminster, Not Better Together, but Credit Swiss.

---------- Post added at 21:25 ---------- Previous post was at 21:19 ----------

Here is a good, balanced, article about the issue: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-key-questions

and as for borders:

Read the whole article however. It's good.

Yes, these are the known knowns and the known unknowns but we also have the unknown unknowns to paraphrase Rumsfeld. ;)

For example, it may be not too long in the future that the influence of UKIP will force an EU referendum on Europe. That off course will affect Scotland no matter what the result of the independence referendum. If the vote is Yes the current currency debate may be moot, if rUK decides to vote for it's own independence from Europe.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35727828)

Currency won't be moot. UK will use Sterling. Freedom of movement with the EU and trade will be issues.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

The poster boy of "Better together". What's not to like? https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2014/09/39.jpg

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

If scotland go their own way, then join the EU while we vote to get leave, will we have to build a big fence between us and scotland to stop them all coming over the borders? Bit like they have between mexico and america.

Could be good money to be made in smuggling tunnels :)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

It's all getting a but desperate, can't believe the three stooges have canceled pmq's to go up there on bended knee.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35727848)

It's all getting a but desperate, can't believe the three stooges have canceled pmq's to go up there on bended knee.

No doubt it'll get funnier / worse / more cringeworthy as the day progresses.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qtx (Post 35727839)

If scotland go their own way, then join the EU while we vote to get leave, will we have to build a big fence between us and scotland to stop them all coming over the borders? Bit like they have between mexico and america.

Could be good money to be made in smuggling tunnels :)

How do you smuggle tunnels? :confused:

;)

---------- Post added at 08:23 ---------- Previous post was at 08:16 ----------

I must say Miliband's idea of flying Saltires around England is likely to go down well. I mean loads of us English folks will have them lying around in cupboards and for those few who don't, well the shops are always full of them south of the border. I was in our local high street only yesterday and Saltires were readily available and selling like hotcakes... :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35727852)

[/COLOR]I must say Miliband's idea of flying Saltires around England is likely to go down well. I mean loads of us English folks will have them lying around in cupboards and for those few who don't, well the shops are always full of them south of the border. I was in our local high street only yesterday and Saltires were readily available and selling like hotcakes... :D

I know it's funny in a way but it also shows how detached he is from what the reality is here in Scotland.
We have a percentage of dedicated Nats who will vote Yes no matter what. We have a percentage of Unionists who will vote NO, no matter what.
We have a percentage of voters who are not convinced by the Yes argument and intend to vote No
We have a percentage of voters who not convinced by the BT argument and intend to vote Yes

Then there's people like me, sitting on the fence with a week to go. We're the ones who will make the decision and many of us are having, or trying to have an intelligent discussion about this. Possibly the most important vote that any of us have cast.
Distractions that insult our intelligence are likely to probe the stubborn, rebellious psyche of our Scottish nature and push us off the fence into the Yes camp.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by LondonRoad (Post 35727867)

'Twas ever thus. ;)

If I were sitting on the fence I'd be looking at which vote represented the biggest risk. There's no doubt in my mind that 'Yes' represents a very big risk indeed. That's just my opinion though and as an Englishman I hope it doesn't push you the 'wrong' side of the fence... ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Looking at the major parties in Westminster.
Tories - want to keep the Union, it's part of what they stand for
Socialists - want to keep the Union, they have large support base in Scotland, doesn't bode well if YES wins.

So what are they gaining by what they are doing? They have to show interest and if they believe we are better as the UK they can outline those concerns. Then they should leave the people of Scotland to debate and decide. They more they speak out it seems the more they push the undecided to the YES camp, no-one likes to be told what to do by "outsiders".

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 35727893)

Dat true dat :)

If they only had listened earlier. If the referendum had included a 3rd option for devo-max then the threat of breaking up the Union wouldn't be there. Even now they can't agree on what increased powers, if any, they'd be willing to devolve to Scotland.

This is now reminding me of the divorce I went through about 15 years ago. Belatedly, my then wife, realised that I wasn't bluffing and she suddenly did want to listen to what I had to say. When the mind is made up you got to go, then you've got to go.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 35727893)

They're hardly "outsiders". All of their parties have people that voted for them in the last elections for Holyrood and Westminster.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

The polls seem to show a very close 50/50 split, so whatever vote wins will leave about half the population upset, and that won't be a happy outcome.

I know a few Scottish families that will be torn in 2.