Cable Forum - Brexit

Will it get the numbers though.

Many Tories won’t vote for it, some Labour won’t vote for it, SNP & LibDems won’t vote for it.

Corbyn may have to agree to a confirmatory vote to get full Labour support.

1andrew1

05-05-2019 18:35

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35993747)

SNP and LibDems won't vote for any deal so they can be ruled out.
There is a majority in Parliament for Brexit but for a softer form of Brexit, so this may work. The fly in the ointment is the confirmatory vote which could scupper it and lead to Theresa May asking for meaningful votes on a range of possibilities leading to a potential softer Brexit deal.

Sephiroth

05-05-2019 19:09

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35993742)

I've been there too. Read the article again - there is a common travel area but try driving an HGV across and you'll appreciate the difference.

I hope the uploaded picture comes out OK. It's the border from Nyon, near Geneva into France. No sign of any customs infrastructure whatsoever. I admit to not having noticed any HGV go through.

OLD BOY

05-05-2019 19:30

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35993742)

I've been there too. Read the article again - there is a common travel area but try driving an HGV across and you'll appreciate the difference.

So why can't we have the same arrangement at the NI border. There you are, you see - proof you can make it work! :D

---------- Post added at 19:30 ---------- Previous post was at 19:12 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35993754)

A soft Brexit isn't Brexit. That would make people very angry.

Even if TM and JC agreed an approach, I think it would be scuppered by a significant number of backbench Conservative and Labour MPs who would vote against it.

I still think there is only one practical solution, given the opposition to TM's plan. Leave without a deal and apply the ten year protection rule provided for in WTO rules (Article 24 of the WTO's General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade). The justification would be that a pause is required to enable a comprehensive trade deal to be negotiated, and the aims of the UK and EU would be set out in that document. A plan and schedule would be required, and the plan would set out the matters to be negotiated. Since we know what we want (heaven only knows we've been negotiating with the EU for over two years now and we know what we want from a trade deal) and we know what the EU is prepared to give us, we know precisely what needs to be negotiated. The interim arrangements that would apply ahead of the eventual trade deal can be taken from the existing withdrawal agreement.

Although the WTO Article provides for a 10-year period, we would not require anywhere near that amount of time to agree a trade deal. Everything is already aligned with the EU anyway.

We would need the EU to agree to this approach, but why wouldn't they if it would ease the trading arrangements between our two countries? We could use the time between now and the new end date for leaving the EU to achieve just that.

Sephiroth

05-05-2019 20:15

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35993771)

<SNIP>

Although the WTO Article provides for a 10-year period, we would not require anywhere near that amount of time to agree a trade deal. Everything is already aligned with the EU anyway.

We would need the EU to agree to this approach, but why wouldn't they if it would ease the trading arrangements between our two countries? We could use the time between now and the new end date for leaving the EU to achieve just that.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759021/25_November_Political_Declaration_setting_out_the_ framework_for_the_future_relationship_between_the_ European_Union_and_the_United_Kingdom__.pdf

17. Against this backdrop, the Parties agree to develop an ambitious, wide-ranging and balanced economic partnership. This partnership will be comprehensive, encompassing a free trade area as well as wider sectoral cooperation where it is in the mutual interest of both Parties. It will be underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field for open
and fair competition, as set out in Section XIV of this Part...…...

XIV. LEVEL PLAYING FIELD FOR OPEN AND FAIR COMPETITION

79. The future relationship must ensure open and fair competition. Provisions to ensure this should cover state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environmental standards, climate change, and relevant tax matters, building on the level playing field arrangements provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement and commensurate with the overall economic relationship.....

-------------------------------------------

As you can see, the Political Declaration is intended to strap both hands and our d*ck behind our back, preventing us from gaining any competitive advantage from our independence.

No chance in negotiating a trade deal quickly unless we give this ground away.

OLD BOY

05-05-2019 20:21

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35993797)

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._Kingdom__.pdf

17. Against this backdrop, the Parties agree to develop an ambitious, wide-ranging and balanced economic partnership. This partnership will be comprehensive, encompassing a free trade area as well as wider sectoral cooperation where it is in the mutual interest of both Parties. It will be underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field for open
and fair competition, as set out in Section XIV of this Part...…...

XIV. LEVEL PLAYING FIELD FOR OPEN AND FAIR COMPETITION

79. The future relationship must ensure open and fair competition. Provisions to ensure this should cover state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environmental standards, climate change, and relevant tax matters, building on the level playing field arrangements provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement and commensurate with the overall economic relationship.....

-------------------------------------------

As you can see, the Political Declaration is intended to strap both hands and our d*ck behind our back, preventing us from gaining any competitive advantage from our independence.

No chance in negotiating a trade deal quickly unless we give this ground away.

The point is, by not signing off the withdrawal agreement and by giving notice that we will leave without a deal, this gives the EU an opportunity to ensure that their trade with us is not disrupted. What is the alternative?

Running down the clock again until we are literally thrown out without a deal? Parliament says they will not allow that, so what gives?

Sephiroth

05-05-2019 20:31

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

The alternative is No Deal. Simples and not the end of the world.

Angua

05-05-2019 20:32

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35993801)

The EU are prepared for us to leave with no deal. The threat of no deal was only any use against parliament.

Parliament voted to rule out leaving with no deal as they know how damaging it is.

No deal Brexit is not what parliament will accept, they have a better idea of how damaging this would be to the economy and the Irish border.

Hugh	05-05-2019 20:49

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35993770)

I hope the uploaded picture comes out OK. It's the border from Nyon, near Geneva into France. No sign of any customs infrastructure whatsoever. I admit to not having noticed any HGV go through.

My nephew worked in Basel, lived in Saint Louis, France (it was cheaper) - always travelled by train to work, as crossing the border in a vehicle was a pain due to long (delays) at peak hours at the border crossing.

And it’s not just at Basel - you may find this Swiss newspaper article informative.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/france-...elays/41781536

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44054594

Quote:

The Swiss border is often held up as an example of what could be achieved in Ireland, but here too there is physical infrastructure at all the main crossings - it is a hard border.

According to information from the International Road Transport Union (IRU), the average waiting time for lorries carrying goods ranges from 20 minutes to more than two hours if full inspections have to be carried out.

And this Swiss Government Federal Customs Management fact sheet for lorry drivers.

https://www.ezv.admin.ch/dam/ezv/en/...rrydrivers.pdf

Quote:

1. Importation
Federal Department of Finance FDF
Federal Customs Administration FCA
Directorate General of Customs
If you are bringing goods to Switzerland from abroad, you must spontaneously declare them at the border customs office. This also applies to goods which have to be cleared in Switzer- land. In this case, a valid transit document is required.
2 Exportation
If you are exporting goods from Switzerland abroad, you must declare these goods for expor- tation at a customs office.
If the export customs declaration occurs in Switzerland, you will require a transit document for the journey to the Swiss border customs office.
3 Transit
Transit goods (uncleared and duty-free) are to be transported through Switzerland with a valid transit document.
The transit goods must be declared at the border customs office upon entering and leaving Switzerland.
4 Goods checks
If the customs office orders a check to be carried out, you are obliged to cooperate. This co- vers all requisite activities (e.g. loading and unloading, packing and unpacking, etc.) at your own expense and risk.
5 Traffic police controls
Customs staff have the authority to carry out checks on you and your vehicle within the scope of the current road traffic law.

Mr K	05-05-2019 21:21

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35993770)

I hope the uploaded picture comes out OK. It's the border from Nyon, near Geneva into France. No sign of any customs infrastructure whatsoever. I admit to not having noticed any HGV go through.

Interesting side fact, i got engaged in Nyon ! Granted I'd been drinking and wasn't thinking straight, so I also didn't note the HGV/custom arrangements, silly me in lots of ways ;)

1andrew1

05-05-2019 21:48

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35993771)

I still think there is only one practical solution, given the opposition to TM's plan. Leave without a deal and apply the ten year protection rule provided for in WTO rules (Article 24 of the WTO's General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade). The justification would be that a pause is required to enable a comprehensive trade deal to be negotiated, and the aims of the UK and EU would be set out in that document. A plan and schedule would be required, and the plan would set out the matters to be negotiated. Since we know what we want (heaven only knows we've been negotiating with the EU for over two years now and we know what we want from a trade deal) and we know what the EU is prepared to give us, we know precisely what needs to be negotiated. The interim arrangements that would apply ahead of the eventual trade deal can be taken from the existing withdrawal agreement.

Although the WTO Article provides for a 10-year period, we would not require anywhere near that amount of time to agree a trade deal. Everything is already aligned with the EU anyway.

We would need the EU to agree to this approach, but why wouldn't they if it would ease the trading arrangements between our two countries? We could use the time between now and the new end date for leaving the EU to achieve just that.

The Article 24 is a myth as a visit to a fact-checking website shows. I'm sorry you've been taken in by this.
https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/
https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...-grace-period/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...rade-deal-myth

---------- Post added at 21:40 ---------- Previous post was at 21:38 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35993771)

So why can't we have the same arrangement at the NI border. There you are, you see - proof you can make it work!

As Hugh's photo and the FT article show, there is a hard border in place.

---------- Post added at 21:44 ---------- Previous post was at 21:40 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35993771)

A soft Brexit isn't Brexit. That would make people very angry.

Some people would be very happy. Some would be very angry. Some would be agnostic.
Bottom line is that you need to appreciate what many have said before me - that there are many variations of Brexit and not just yours and all would qualify legally.

---------- Post added at 21:48 ---------- Previous post was at 21:44 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35993804)

Model answer. :tu::tu::tu:

TheDaddy

06-05-2019 07:44

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35993770)

I hope the uploaded picture comes out OK. It's the border from Nyon, near Geneva into France. No sign of any customs infrastructure whatsoever. I admit to not having noticed any HGV go through.

Something that's not been mentioned yet is the border closes to hgv's at five o'clock on a Friday evening and doesn't open again till Monday morning, I work with a few haulage firms and have heard the stories of being stuck at the border all weekend more than a few times. For me this sums up the whole brexit debacle in a nutshell, someone not in full possession of facts telling everyone else they know exactly what's going on, it's almost as if we've learnt nothing in the last few years

OLD BOY

06-05-2019 08:41

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35993820)

Whether anyone likes it or not, Article 24 exists, and it exists for a reason.

I note that one of the reasons quoted for this not being possible to implement is that the EU won't be likely to sign up to it because we're already committed to giving them the £40bn!

What an absolute joke. The EU also want frictionless trade as they want to help their industries too, and the £40bn has been pledged as part of the withdrawal agreement, which would not have been signed off under this scenario.

These are just difficulties that have been deliberately put in the way. They are not reasons, and the legislation would not be there if the WTO and the countries signed up to GATT did not intend for it to be used.

Hugh	06-05-2019 08:42

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35993770)

I hope the uploaded picture comes out OK. It's the border from Nyon, near Geneva into France. No sign of any customs infrastructure whatsoever. I admit to not having noticed any HGV go through.

That’s actually Crassier - it used to have a checkpoint, but since Schengen, it’s no longer manned (as it’s a minor road crossing, so HGVs don’t use it).

https://passportparty.ch/2018/12/01/...-and-crassier/

Mick	06-05-2019 10:17

Re: Brexit (New Poll Added)

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35993842)

So that happens, even without Brexit - As unfortunate as this sounds. I would still vote leave. Being in a corrupt union and wanting to leave overrides minor inconveniences, but the inconvenience you describe above, is happening anyway and Brexit has not happened.

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