Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well YouGov does get things horribly wrong occasionally. http://www1.politicalbetting.com/ind...in-april-2010/

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yup but this time they're closer to other polls. It's certainly looking like it's neck and neck.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Provided that the new devolution proposals are clearly defined and true commitments then the opinion polls will swing significantly back towards the BT together.

One of the main reasons that the Yes campaign has been gaining ground is because over the uncertainties of what devomax involved.

If this "plan of action" is poorly constructed then it may backfire. It may be perceived as being a means of pulling the wool over the eyes of the electorate. I suspect that this plan has been sitting on the back burner for a while and need only be revealed if there seemed the likelihood that there was a real chance of the YES campaign succeeding... or am I just being cynical?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The proposals aren't new. They seem to be what was offered already but with a more concrete timetable for implementation. However since they're enshrined in law there were certainly going to come.

The polls won't swing back either. The energy behind Yes seems to be one of optimism and hope rather than pragmatism. Yes has never answered how all their hopes will be paid for or why a Currency Union would happen but they're surging ahead anyway and accusing critics of scaremongering.

I think it's looking more like a Yes vote will win.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm hoping you're wrong. If they intend to regurgitate vague promises and stick vague deadlines on in then it will backfire. Much of the YES alleged "surge" is, I suspect, largely a knee-jerk opposition to the condescending politics of Westminster.

I still think it will be a No, possibly even a resounding NO!, but if the BT heavyweights misjudge the mood in Scotland it could just be a Yes.

It's very unique being part of it. People are engaging in politics in a way that I have never witnessed before. It's very empowering; having a historical vote that could define your country for future generations.

The Yes campaigners had a large presence in my local Main Street yesterday morning. I had an interesting discussion with a Yes gentleman and expressed some of my main concerns. He didn't exactly enlighten me because he trotted out the party line. What was interesting, and kind of surreal, was that I was expressing BT concerns to a Yes campaigner who had an obvious English accent! A Yorkshire lad that has resided here for 30 years as it transpired.

Even if we're separate we'll still be together ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/st...37840218292224

:(

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Rupert Murdoch as the saviour of Scotland? :rolleyes:

Will the last person out of Scotland turn out the lights in the event of a Yes win.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Hold the bus. Salmond's own private polls have him in the lead. Lmao of course they do. Wonder how accurate they are!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Obviously the guessers will give old rupert abuse and tell him it's none of his business just like they do for anyone who comes out in favour of the union.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Not really. I feel Yes have never addressed the fact that you'll be voting explicitly for separation and division. They've dressed it up as a americable administrative adjustment where Scotland would be richer but keep all the parts of the Union that they like. Hence the Currency Union, a single energy market (a.k.a UK-Wide subsidises for renewable energy continue), keeping the Queen, quick entry into the EU with the UK opt-outs still in place and getting rid of Trident both physically and financially (but staying protected under the NATO umbrella, for free).

It's important to know that Scotland will be a Independent country. We will not be together other than sharing a land border. The rest of the United Kingdom would be a rival economy to Scotland. We will attempt to entice businesses south of the border as Scotland tries to do likewise in tempting them North. We will attempt to rival your exports (well, we'll concede Whisky) and if, as suggested, Salmond cuts corporation tax then we may well do the same. Who would win a tax-cutting race to the bottom? The smaller country with a commitment to more public spending or the country run by Conservatives will a commitment to cut public spending?

We all lose either way.

On most logical levels Independence makes no sense. It's very costly to both Scotland and rUK. It weakens us both. Yes are winning however because they have a more hopeful and inspiration message, even if it's unlikely to be delivered, and the Unionists cannot match it.

---------- Post added at 08:51 ---------- Previous post was at 08:50 ----------

I don't know if the story is true or Salmond is lying but they won't rig internal polls as they're used to direct the message and tactics of the campaign. You would only want to rig public polling that you pay for.

---------- Post added at 09:15 ---------- Previous post was at 08:51 ----------

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/508691329207894016

Makes sense. Murdoch has been cryptically hinting at this. Clearly has strong ties with Salmond. Undercuts the BBC and sticks it to Westminster.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

:tu: - And in a world where integration is the key splitting up a hugely sucessful union makes no sense at all.

They've promised everything and whenever challenged their plans fall apart dramatically.

There was something very telling on the news up here last Thursday or Friday. They were doing a vox pop on what would be on offer in iScotland, one woman was agreeing enthusiastically with free childcare etc. until she was told the taxpayers would be funding it.

That's what No are up against. People willing to take the good without question and any disagreement is scaremongering.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I think there's a whole lot of folks in Scotland only hearing what they want to hear right now and of course Salmond's always been the embodiment of presentation over substance. I'm not sure they fully appreciate that if it all goes pear shaped there's no way back.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yougov may be closer in terms of the split between Yes and No, but that's only half the story. The other half of it is direction of travel, and Yougov has shown a very dramatic shift from No to Yes over a very short period of time, which has not been replicated by Survation or by Panelbase.

The issue of weighting is critical here, I think. Yougov has lessened the significance it attaches to voters who were born outside Scotland and this has caused the dramatic apparent fall in support for No. Whether this now makes all things equal with regards to the other polls, we won't know now until we get the actual referendum results.

I believe there is a TNS-BMRB poll coming this week. Their polls are conducted face to face, not across the internets, and are part of a wider market research project, so they may well catch a different set of opinions. It will be interesting to see whether they come up with something different than Yougov and Panelbase (and Survation?) which use a sample of internet volunteers.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I don't think they do.

My wife is Scottish and she lives here with me in England, she's engaged quite a few old friends in Scotland, and once the veneer of friendliness has worn off, it generally degenerates to 'well its nowt to do with you, you don't live here any more, you have no say - besides you don't know what you're talking about'.

Then we invariably get directed to 'Wings over Scotland' or some such comedy site.

I genuinely now think that enough Scots have been sold by the 'English oppressors' line (yes really...) that they'll vote for iScotland regardless of any consequences.

I also believe once salmonds make-it-up-as-you-go politics fall apart, it'll end up - somehow - being the English's fault again.

One things for sure though, whatever the outcome, there now exists a massive undercurrent of bad feeling between the Scottish & English people that just didn't exist before.

Than's Cameron for being a limp wristed indecisive politician... and thank YOU Blair for allowing Devolution to start this whole sorry mess starting - way to go fellas.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yes I am looking forward to that poll too. Whatever happens the comfortable led to No has gone now.

The Government and Labour have been shocking over this. Only now do they think they better pay attention. In late August Westminster and the media were more interested in Clacton than Scotland. I am pretty sure losing a seat to UKIP is less disruptive than losing the entirety of Scotland. The politicians have been coming out with suggestions for policy that haven't really not helped Darling. UKIP want to hold a rally up there! Hopefully now that the prospect of Yes winning is very real they'll decline to do so. Labour have done pretty much nothing, Darling and Douglas Alexander excluded, to campaign for fear of being tagged too closely with the Tories.

All the Westminster parties need to shut up and focus on this for the next 10 days and do what they can to help which means getting more involved (Labour) or stop feeding the Yes campaign's talking points (UKIP).