Cable Forum - UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

It's weird that it has been Ireland putting the biggest stumbling blocks in the way of the WA, but they will lose massively if there are restrictions. They currently benefit from having a common language with the UK.

Chris

14-12-2019 12:19

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Ireland has been playing the EU’s strategy of obstructionism in the hope of something changing in British politics to either stop Brexit or soften it to Norway+ or similar.

I think we will see things move surprisingly fast now.

OLD BOY

14-12-2019 13:06

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36020275)

44% of our exports go to the EU. However the UK only represents 8% of EU exports. That's why they have the upper hand in any negotiations.

'No Deal' is more if a threat for the EU to use against us than the other way round. However it would damage both which is why it won't happen.

Yes, well, expressing that in percentage terms is very clever, but it doesn't explain the position in a way that shows the reliance the EU has on trade with the UK.

A better way of looking at it is to quote the obvious figures. I don't have the up to date statistics to hand but in 2017, the EU exported £67bn more to us in goods and services than we did to them. Now that is why the EU will benefit from a deal, so it is not all one way against us as you and your fellow pushy remainers like to portray.

I think we all recognise Project Fear when we see it.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36020281)

To be honest, I was surprised that Ireland pushed back as hard as they did. They were actually pushing towards a 'no deal', so it was rather reckless of them, to be honest.

Hugh	14-12-2019 13:36

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

But I were a retailer, losing access to 44% of my customers will have a much greater effect on me than the larger retailer next to me losing access to 8% of their customer base, surely.

Whilst the monetary amounts may be similar, the impact on the smaller retailer will be greater - or am I missing something?

Recent trading figures here - https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-7851

pip08456

14-12-2019 14:10

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36020291)

If I were a retai facing losing 44% of my customers I would be looking into selling to the larger customer base that would be opening up to me by no longer being part of a closed group of customers.

Hugh	14-12-2019 15:31

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36020292)

If I were a retai facing losing 44% of my customers I would be looking into selling to the larger customer base that would be opening up to me by no longer being part of a closed group of customers.

The 3 largest economies in the world are China ($25.3 trillion, 19% of the world's total GDP), the EU ($22 trillion, 16% of total GDP), and the USA ($20.5 trillion, 15% of total GDP) - together, they are 50% of the world's GDP.

If you think a country with under a seventh of the EU's GDP (the UK) will have the same negotiating power with China and the USA, never mind the smaller countries, you are being, I believe, optimistic.

The EU currently has 41 trade agreements covering 72 countries - the UK currently participates in those agreements, and the UK is seeking continuity for its existing EU trade agreements with a number of countries after Brexit (but this isn't guaranteed) - trade with them made up about 11% of UK trade in goods and services in 2018, so add that to the 45% (latest figures) of our exports to the EU, 55% of our exports are at risk (of having as good a deal as we have now).

OLD BOY

14-12-2019 20:41

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36020291)

What you are missing is the increased trade we can get from the rest of the world (which, incidentally, is rather bigger than the EU!)

But the thing you are missing is that trade with the EU will continue. Whether or not we get a trade deal, this will continue to be the case.

I think you are severely misunderstanding how much additional trade awaits us outside the confines of the EU. The noises from President Trump alone are very encouraging.

And incidentally, if you have such an issue with chlorinated chicken, you don't have to buy it. There is no compulsion here, it is a choice.

TheDaddy

14-12-2019 21:57

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36020327)

What will we be selling the world that we don't currently?

What choice is there when you open up your market to products produced so cheaply in such awful conitions that the only way to make them consumable is to dip them in a bucket of chlorine, so many farmers have gone out of business in Australia iirc that they're actually considering withdrawing from their US trade agreement and look what happened when Japan tried to set up something like nice for their drug procurement, America threatened to pull out of their agreement and if you think trump is encouraging us it's not for our benefit, this is a man who has said repeatedly that the only good deal is one where he wins and everyone else loses

Hugh	14-12-2019 23:26

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36020327)

What you are missing is the increased trade we can get from the rest of the world (which, incidentally, is rather bigger than the EU!)

Such as?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36020327)

But the thing you are missing is that trade with the EU will continue. Whether or not we get a trade deal, this will continue to be the case.

So you’re stating we will keep the deal we have if no deal is agreed? That statement is not congruent with actuality- if we don’t have a deal by the end of 2020, we revert to WTO terms.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36020327)

I think you are severely misunderstanding how much additional trade awaits us outside the confines of the EU. The noises from President Trump alone are very encouraging.

Trump said "Congratulations to Boris Johnson on his great WIN! This deal has the potential to be far bigger and more lucrative than any deal that could be made with the EU. Celebrate Boris!” He didn’t say who it would be lucrative for - we would be negotiating with a country who, quite rightly, would be working in its own interest, not ours, and has an economy five times our size.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36020327)

And incidentally, if you have such an issue with chlorinated chicken, you don't have to buy it. There is no compulsion here, it is a choice.

I never mentioned chlorinated chicken, but nice try for introducing irrelevant comments...

Pierre

15-12-2019 16:53

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36020190)

I would agree with that now we know exactly what deal is on offer and the public have still gone for it.

So now they knew what that were voting for and still voted for it. So that much lauded 2nd Ref that would have gone the other way when the ignorant were educated would have been a waste of time?

Quote:

However doubt whether they've read the withdrawal agreement, realised how long trade talks and real Brexit might take, or the realise effects on economy/living standards e.g. an equivalent 10% cut in wages. The political price could be very high if it doesn't work out.

However they've made their choice, move on. .

After 3.5 years, of being informed by the Remain camp, i’m Sure they know just fine.

---------- Post added at 16:53 ---------- Previous post was at 16:50 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36020225)

https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/av...o-deal-brexit/

Trade deals take time, no one can guarantee it for a particular date.

Indeed, it cannot be guaranteed, but we are starting from perfect alignment, so we should be right to expect it to be quicker than usual.

Hugh	15-12-2019 17:48

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

It’ll be quicker than usual if we agree to the "level playing field", which BJ has said we won’t.

https://www.ft.com/content/30a1b750-...f-cc63de1d73f4

Quote:

The French president and German chancellor Angela Merkel were among leaders to stress that British access to the EU’s market would be linked to a willingness to sign up to “level playing field” standards after the UK leaves the union on January 31.

“What we say, simply, is that the more ambitious the agreement, the more substantial the regulatory alignment must be,” Mr Macron said, insisting that talks could “go pretty quickly if [the UK] say, when it comes down to it, ‘we do not want to change very much’”.

The “level playing field” has emerged as a priority for the EU, given its fears that the tariff-free, quota-free trade deal sought by Mr Johnson could leave its companies vulnerable to unfair competition from across the Channel.

The UK prime minister has declared an intention to break away from EU laws and oversight following Brexit, while insisting that Britain should get a high degree of access to the single market, including duty-free and tariff-free trade in goods.

Ms Merkel said Britain would become “a competitor on our doorstep now that it is no longer integrated in the internal market”.

“The UK will, of course, carefully weigh up the advantages of leaving the standards that we have in the EU, and what would be the disadvantages of doing that,” she said.

The comments underline the challenge facing Mr Johnson even as he savours his election victory. Brussels is confident that it has substantial leverage, given Britain’s need for a strong economic relationship with its biggest trading partner and the limited time to negotiate.

OLD BOY

15-12-2019 17:49

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36020339)

Such as?

So you’re stating we will keep the deal we have if no deal is agreed? That statement is not congruent with actuality- if we don’t have a deal by the end of 2020, we revert to WTO terms.

Trump said "Congratulations to Boris Johnson on his great WIN! This deal has the potential to be far bigger and more lucrative than any deal that could be made with the EU. Celebrate Boris!” He didn’t say who it would be lucrative for - we would be negotiating with a country who, quite rightly, would be working in its own interest, not ours, and has an economy five times our size.

I never mentioned chlorinated chicken, but nice try for introducing irrelevant comments...

When we get out of the EU next month, we will be looking at forging trade deals with China, the US and India. None of these countries have a deal with the EU, if I remember correctly. We are also looking at exploring opportunities on the continent of Africa as well as other countries with markets we can exploit. The Asian Pacific trade bloc is also high on the list.

Your dismissal of the US as a potential trading partner is quite extraordinary, so pardon me if you really didn't intend to give me the standard 'chlorinated chicken' retort that is so beloved of Mr K. I don't suppose it has occurred to you that we can specify standards for raising birds if they are to be exported to the UK, just as we can for the purchase of clothes from India. If we apply those same standards uniformly, the US will not suffer a disadvantage and the chickens would benefit.

You keep obsessing with the relative size of our country compared with those we are trading with, ignoring two important facts.

1. Those countries want to export to us.

2. We are not going to accept anything other than trade deals that are acceptable to the UK.

Fortunately, we are now in the hands of a healthy Conservative Government that actually knows what it's doing in this area.

Hugh	15-12-2019 17:55

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

I didn’t dismiss the idea of the US as a trading partner, just pointed out the obvious that they will be in a stronger negotiating position - you seem to regard this statement as negative, whilst I view it as realistic.

You also seem to think it’s a one way street, and that we have all the negotiating strengths with other countries- I hope you’re right, but I doubt it; they’re not going to accept anything other than trade deals which benefit them.

Still waiting for you to tell exactly what goods and services we are going to export to the USA, China, and India that will make up for 44% of our exports to the EU (around £350 billion)...

nomadking

15-12-2019 17:58

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36020380)

It’ll be quicker than usual if we agree to the "level playing field", which BJ has said we won’t.

So what exactly does "level playing field" mean, and who controls and sets the "field"? If the UK wants to implement a change that helps and assists business, do the EU have to follow suit or would we be prevented from doing it in the first place? Take a wild guess.:rolleyes: Does the EU insist on that for trade deals with other countries, eg Vietnam?
EU-Vietnam trade deal

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36020385)

Why does everything have to be about strength?