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Re: The future of television
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As for broadband not being able to cope, that’s for the birds. I don’t think anyone is sleepwalking into this. I seem to recall some scare story appearing on here some time ago that there wouldn’t be enough electricity to support the whole TV experience being provided by on demand over broadband. Don’t fall into the same trap, episilon, that would be embarrassing. |
Re: The future of television
We may come up short on Electricity, but not for TV, it uses a fraction of what EV's require.
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However, totally unrelated to TV or broadband, electricity grids are becoming more susceptible to load balancing failures and even hacking (e.g. the recent outage across Spain & Portugal). Recent news stories of kill switches built into solar panels made in China are also enlightening. That said, such failures would have the same impact on broadcast tv so a little beyond the scope of this thread. ---------- Post added at 19:27 ---------- Previous post was at 19:24 ---------- Quote:
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In fact, the inability of the national broadband infrastructure to cope is discussed at length in the Ofcom document, which we all know he’s aware of (even though it’s still unclear if he’s actually read it). Amongst the many problems is that if you’re watching a live event and pause it to make a cup of tea, you can no longer be served from a multicast. The service provider then has to provide a bespoke stream for you, as well as everyone else who paused it to answer the door to the pizza dude. There comes a point when the network can’t cope - something that simply doesn’t happen with broadcast. It’s no coincidence that low budget FAST channels like most of what’s available on Pluto TV don’t let you pause/rewind. It allows them to multicast without the risk of network load running out of control. Quote:
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You can build pausing into a device by using stream buffering.
Obviously it requires a local storage system, such as memory or disk. |
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More disappointing news for OB and from one of his favourite sources.
https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2025...ht-switch-off/ |
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The point is those are premium add-ons to a basic service. |
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American's are ditching pay tv and going back to terrestrial.
https://multicastnews.com/p/sinclair...sers-broadcast |
Re: The future of television
Explanation given by BBC technologist:
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Some more info given from the BBC Technologist that others may find interesting: Quote:
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But it needs a commitment. It's another scenario where Europe has made the commitment but here we have total silence. Again, for the various scenarios in the report. Things aren't going to happen overnight, decisions need to be made and infrastructure planned. The UK hasn't mass converted to DVB-T2 because no company will invest in the conversion without an assurance that the transmitters won't be turned off a few years hence. There needs to be a return on any investment. So, it's in the hands of the DCMS an important time for the department to get its act together. But what is happening? suggestions that the DCMS will be abolished and the workload split out to other government departments. Yeah, more sleep walking into the future... |
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Which is why I cannot see any major intervention by the government. And it’s why the broadcasters are proceeding the way they would prefer.
You are absolutely right that Europe is charting a very different path from that of the UK. It will be very interesting to see how that pans out. |
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Of course, if Europe has a whole decides to keep UHF for DTT rather than mobile, this country doesn't have a "little England" option to opt out of that, there is one ITU, not a UK version of it. I was going to post this earlier but lost the link, fortunately it's been reposted over the weekend. A nice little summary for those who may have got TL;DR vibes from the full Coleago report. Quote:
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Re: The future of television
See something pop up about the BBC trying to get those who watch other streaming services to pay for a TV license, I honestly can't see it happening, but with our government, you never know!
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Even the BBC wants this, which in my view is highly significant. As for what Europe may do, that doesn't have to affect us at all. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-tv-broadcast/ [EXTRACT] The BBC and rival broadcasters are resisting efforts to delay the switch-off of terrestrial TV despite concerns the shift to streaming could leave older viewers behind. The corporation and its fellow public service broadcasters ITV and Channel 4 are locked in discussions with the Government about when traditional TV signals will be fully replaced by internet streaming. Under current legislation, broadcast TV is slated to continue until at least 2034. However, some campaigners are calling for this date to be pushed back to 2040 or beyond to ensure that older and more vulnerable audiences are not left disconnected. The campaigners are joined by Arqiva, the company that owns Britain’s TV masts and has a commercial interest in extending their life. The major broadcasters are pushing back against these efforts, arguing that they face hefty costs to keep ageing, energy-intensive signals running as audience numbers decline. |
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Again, OB flatly ignoring the fact that most of the future pathways for DTT do not involve keeping the same ageing, energy-intensive signals running. But then you’re taking your cues from the rage-clicking Telegraph so probably not surprising.
As per the link from Ofcom, and various items posted by epsilon, there are ways of making DTT run more efficiently.* The broadcasters are squealing because of regulatory inaction that has raised the prospect of none of those being implemented and therefore a decision to continue DTT being, by default, a decision to continue using DVB-T2. *And also worth pointing out - again - that even in the highly unlikely event that if DTT is turned off in 2035 (it won’t be, because the concerns around access for the elderly and vulnerable are real and ultimately will have to be reckoned with), but even if it is, a vanilla TV service over IP will be broadcast, without pause/rewind, i.e. a bunch of FAST channels, which is the only way to make a nationwide IP broadcast system work within bandwidth constraints. |
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If you say so, Chris.
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The situation I have outlined will change only if the government intervenes. But do they have the money to compensate for the maintenance of an increasingly uneconomic system? Well, I suspect you know the answer to that one. As for pensioners and any other non-tech savvies, even I can come up with a solution to that one that my late granny could use, and she didn’t even like to change a channel. It’s not hard! Just give them a box with the free on demand streamers on it and enable a setting which delivers a pre-set streamer each time you switch on if necessary. It can then go straight into a selection of programming from that streamer without pressing any further buttons if required. Remote controls could also enable switching streamers in the same way that some are already available with the Netflix button on it, for example. The industry would pay that to achieve a DTT switch off and it could be part of a revised PSB remit. That is more likely to be the type of intervention the government makes, and the broadcasters will accept that. If you find any recent information that contradicts this post, please do provide it - I am all ears. |
Re: The future of television
Ah, another standard OB debating technique … the ‘all you have to do is…’
… in which all you have to do is assume the problem has actually been solved. No evaluation, understanding or design required. All you have to do is make a box. Here’s one I made earlier. And “the industry”, which doesn’t want to pay to keep using the reliable, well-understood thing they’ve been using for 20 years, will pay for this new thing that hasn’t been specified or designed, much less built and tested, because of course they just will. |
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One thing to note though, you are somewhat clueless as to the government's position in this (I'm being kind :p:). Government compensation for an increasingly uneconomic system? Why? they have no responsibility for the infrastructure. The only reason for the uncertainty is the rolling licence system favoured by the government in this country, it brings uncertainty. Come up with an actual plan and the infrastructure providers (Arqiva etc) will fund and provide it. The reality is they aren't going to fund anything with no plans in place and no return on their investment. So now the government are putting out feelers for what they should do next. Studies such as the Coleago one are coming back with possible solutions such as keeping a terrestrial system with more advanced codecs such as HEVC and VVC, which could carry more services per multiplex. Another suggestion is more utilisation of SFN networks, which would reduce the spectrum needed but wouldn't be great for regional services. It probably escaped your attention but government funding of transmitter infrastructure ended many years ago with the abolition of the IBA. |
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As I recall, the IBAs transmitters (or at least some of them) went to NTL, before ending up with Arqiva.
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When it comes to analysis of industry data, I'd prefer to consider the summary provided by an industry publication (TVB Europe is published by the b2b division of Future plc) to the views of an individual obsessed with a "streaming only" future. |
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Again, you are reading into my posts (or deliberately twisting them) that are not there. I absolutely did not say the government would compensate - I made it absolutely clear that they didn’t have the money to compensate broadcasters, and that therefore, the broadcasters would get what they wanted (ie, IPTV only). You have not addressed the problem that would negate any plans to upgrade the DTT system, which is that the broadcasters don’t want two forms of distribution, particularly with DTT audiences declining. What I said was that the broadcasters would want compensation to do this, which of course, they won’t get. You are clinging on to this romanticism that TV channels will somehow survive these changes and ignoring or attempting to rubbish anything that might suggest otherwise. Some of you ask question after question of me which I try to answer every time, but you don’t answer those questions put to you, do you? So yes, you are playing a game. |
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I'd get another cause OB. There are bigger things to worry about than the future of TV. Take the climate , or health service for example... Much more worthy of your time and effort :)
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My view has not shifted from what I said 10 years ago, and I see everything developing the way I said it would. I’m not looking for confirmation, I am looking for anything that might happen to disrupt this process. Nothing has been revealed so far in this thread, despite those desperate responses that are designed to look so knowledgeable. You don’t have any answers to the points I’ve made in the above paragraph that stand up to scrutiny. I’m sorry to be so blunt, but really, your rude posts are beyond the pale. I much prefer a sensible discussion. I rose above all this playground stuff many moons ago. ---------- Post added at 20:34 ---------- Previous post was at 20:31 ---------- Quote:
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Re: The future of television
Is it worth all the evangelical ' only my view matters' zeal though OB? It's only tv. You have one view , other have theirs. Accept to differ? Then go and do something worthwhile. Food banks always need volunteers and they don't argue about the future of TV...
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DTT could be improved as you say, but the point is that the broadcasters only want one system. You are not grasping that, are you? ---------- Post added at 20:41 ---------- Previous post was at 20:38 ---------- Quote:
That 2035 date I postulated 10 years ago is now all over the media, but it’s like water off a duck’s back on this forum! :rolleyes: |
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The Telegraph's theory of broadcasters only wanting one system doesn't fly. Even with 405 line and analogue switch offs they ran dual systems for many years for better continuity of service. Same with the medium wave switch off, where services have continued for years with only a handful of listeners. Costs there are phenomenal, very high power transmitters and only carrying a single service. Remember that DTT transmitters each carry a multiplex with dozens of services, so the cost per service is relatively low. Same again with DAB radio, why aren't they broadcasters pressing to shut down the FM transmitters? As I said, the one system theory simply doesn't fly. It's not what is happening in the rest of the broadcasting world. Quote:
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXiZHXkG-ac |
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… which it eventually will. Slowly and after the usual delays borne of complacency, but it will get its act together.
Public service broadcast licence terms are set by government. Ultimately, the BBC, ITV and channels 4 and 5 will broadcast via the delivery mechanism they are told to. |
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I have already drawn attention to the fact that broadcasters want IPTV only. It’s not hard to see why. It’s cheaper than continuing to support the DTT system and there’s less financial outlay and work without scheduling programmes. New stuff can just be added as a new tile on the system. No more problems with programmes that need editing to fit them into the slot. No more other trying to find archive content to fill the increasingly blank schedules on each channel. The coveted viewers cherished by advertisers are moving on line. That is where broadcasters get better returns than on traditional channels, which are watched by fewer people each year and increasingly by an audience reluctant to spend much money. On the other hand, we have Ofcom and the government. Ofcom is concerned by the older TV audience who might get left behind if IPTV was the only option left to watch TV. It will push this problem to the government. No doubt the government will consult with the broadcasters, and they will come up with their solutions to the problem and make it clear to the government that it will not be economic for them to continue to use DTT. The government will have to contemplate these arguments and also bear in mind that there will soon be pressure to use the DTT spectrum for other purposes, although as has been pointed out, there are proposals to improve the DTT infrastructure, and so the views of Arqiva will then need to be taken into account. Then there’s the TV viewers.There is a sizeable chunk of viewers who are campaigning against shutting down DTT before 2040. The main problem is that there is a cost to that - who is going to bear that cost? The broadcasters will push back hard against that - even Davie of the BBC believes that, and he has no need to be concerned about advertisements as the commercial stations are. I don’t deny that there may be some sort of basic DTT channel run by the BBC, but they will point out that this will come with a price tag. Who will pay for that? Perhaps it could be paid for with the cost savings of transferring most programming to IPTV only. I can assure you that I am listening intently to the counter arguments, Chris, but I keep coming back to the cost of having two systems, and who will pay, because the broadcasters won’t want that without compensation. And, of course, the government has no money. |
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I don't think that the streaming service will be VOD only, I think that there will be streamed linear channels.
The commercial channels & advertisers will love this as people won't be able to FF through the adverts. |
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Indeed, and I’m sitting through some unskippable adverts on Pluto TV right now, in the middle of an episode of Mission Impossible. As I’ve been saying for years, sometimes you can’t be bothered wading through tons of VOD trying to pick something. A nice bit of nostalgia is all that’s required … pick one of the channels and jump in to whatever ep happens to be playing.
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What we have here is two completely different systems. |
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Switching to IP delivery does not equate to TV as VOD only, as many people have told you, over and over again. IP is just a delivery mechanism. Even if it were technically and societally feasible to switch to an entirely IP-based delivery mechanism 10 years from now, linear broadcast channels are not going to stop in 2035. Their utility is too great. I have (almost) every streaming service it’s possible to get in the UK but even I have spent the last 3 hours watching linear TV, entirely IP delivered (we never did get round to installing an aerial on our new house). First, BBC1, then Pluto TV. And it is FAST services like Pluto that really are the proof of the pudding. If we were hurtling towards a future in which nobody wants linear broadcast, where on earth have the FAST services sprung from, and why? |
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You also filtered out the other multi-platform broadcasts mentioned. You know, the FM / DAB duplication. If it helps you to process this, I know you have difficulty with over the air systems, you can also consider the other platforms simulcasting these services. BBC Sounds, Global Player, Rayo, Nation Player etc and also the raw streaming available on web browsers and wi-fi radios. Multiple simulcasts, yet no call to switch off the expensive single service FM transmitters. And no demands that the government compensate them for, you know, providing their service to their listeners. ---------- Post added at 00:59 ---------- Previous post was at 00:57 ---------- Quote:
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As for this point you make about compensation, where have I said anywhere that the government or anyone else had to pay compensation? What I am saying is that unless compensation is available, the broadcasters will be unwilling to keep funding the existing system. Quote:
The FAST channels were never a part of my prediction, but my view is that they will indeed survive the switchover to IPTV only. But don’t expect the likes of BBC, ITV and the rest to follow - they will stick with on demand because it saves them costs. Quote:
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As long as the FAST channels can get more advertisement funding than it costs to run these services, then they will continue to survive. ---------- Post added at 17:34 ---------- Previous post was at 17:03 ---------- Quote:
The broadcasters want to put out their content on demand via IPTV only. This is the issue you need to address because it is the one thing that is most likely to dictate which road is taken in the next few years. If you don’t believe me, ask Tim Davie. As you know, the BBC is always to be relied upon to deliver the news correctly (or so you tell me on here)! |
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Cutting to the chase, the elephant in the room seems to be Freely.
If Old Boy is able to address the point as to why broadcasters are hmm, freely doing something that goes against his perception of what they want to do (to make their content on-demand only) then I think we may be able to make some useful progress on this thread. |
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Of course Freely has TV channels on it. TV channels are still broadcasting, and will be for the next 5-10 years. Freely was designed to show them during this transitional phase as well as providing on demand access, so what’s your point? The main TV channels are likely to disappear within that timeframe. That is what the broadcasters envisage. Assuming that happens, Freely will still offer streaming channels but it won’t be able to offer conventional TV channels because, if all goes without a hitch, they will no longer exist. |
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If there was any truth in your assertion that "Freely was designed to show them during this transitional phase", then surely they would have just left the traditional broadcast versions in place on Freely. The broadcasters have created a completely new infrastructure just for, wait for it... traditional linear channels. |
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I feel like there should be a drum roll in there somewhere. :D
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Re: TV Show Renewals & Cancellations
whats happening with sky? do they have a deal with HBO still or is that over?
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My take on everything I've read on this subject is that only the FAST channels will ultimately survive this change. ---------- Post added at 15:05 ---------- Previous post was at 14:57 ---------- Quote:
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As an audisnce, we don't have as much control as you think. As long as the majority use streaming as all or part of their TV consumption, the broadcasters will have the confidence to make the change they want. The government might expect the BBC to provide a channel for the minority, but that is all. |
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Re: The future of television
You are so convincing, Chris [COUGH]
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