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That is one angry chappy. So much rage. (Can't lie though, I have watched loads of him. Something funny about how upset he gets).
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678
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He is just planning for the 'worst-case' scenario as the article says which is his job. The hard Brexiteers will be angry but like when we actually left the Bank of England seem to have been the only ones prepared for it. Cameron resigned, The Brexit team fought amongst themselves to be leader and the Government were unprepared.
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Apologies for the late message but I did promise to give some perspectives from some work colleagues on Brexit. I was in meetings in the US with three colleagues from continental Europe and we had a good discussion over a few beers one night on Brexit. Two people were from EU countries and the third was from a country tat wants to join.
Can you guess which countries these people are from? Person 1 - he said it was a shame the UK was leaving as his country always saw the UK as a kindered spirit within the EU. Generally we voted the same way and we were a useful ally against some larger more 'federal' nations Person 2 - a bit more vocal! He saw Brexit as a triumph of nationalism over international cooperation and the UK was trying to 'turn back the clock' to pre-1939 while the rest of the world has moved on. I made the point that the UK hasn't been invaded for over a thousand years and s has never really felt the breakdown of diplomacy to a great extent which he liked. He got in to a big argument with a Trump supporter on the same issue! Person 3 - from a country that wants to join. From the outside looking in, it was a club that non EU European countries really want to join. Accepting a small loss of sovereignty was a small price to pay for the prosperity of being an EU country. Big hint - she made the point that they changed the name of the country to ease accession to the EU. It was a fun discussion. I tried to play devils advocate and use some of the arguments seen on here and elsewhere on leaving |
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2. France 3. FYR Macedonia |
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And while I'm there, his chief fan, Hammond, should be carpeted for allowing this scaremongering to occur; although he won't be as he is scaremonger in chief. I'm beginning to think Hammond is in the same league of **** as Juncker and Selmayr. ---------- Post added at 10:30 ---------- Previous post was at 10:24 ---------- Quote:
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And what 'clear concise plan' is possible now at this stage other than dropping out of the EU on the appointed date and then sort things out? Two years ago, it was possible to have a clear plan which May pretended to have when she conned us by saying "Brexit means Brexit". We have to get out; Juncker's speech proves that. We are not compatible with a federated Europe and the Euro - topics that the Remainers on this thread avoid getting into as far as I've seen. Never mind German hegemony a subtle way of winning domination by "peaceful" means. |
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I don't want his head; I want him to be more balanced. None of his predictions so far in relation to the effects of Brexit have materialised. |
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What specific predictions do you disagree with, bearing in mind Brexit has not yet happened. |
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The answers are; 1 - Sweden 2 - Germany 3 - Macedonia Bo, my Swedish buddy apparently echos the general 'cautious europhilia' of Sweden. They like the EU but are wary of too much integration too fast. He admitted that it would be a cold day in hell before Sweden joined the Euro! There is some resentment in Sweden that some countries in the EU haven't been taking their fair share of refugees, hence the rise of the SD party in the election this weekend. Many Swedes would like a pro-rated acceptance of refugee numbers across the EU which of course would go down like a cup of cold sick in the UK. Ralf, my German friend is in his early 50s and so is still of that fiercely anti-nationalistic post WWII mindset of many Germans of that generation. There is very much a 'never again' attitude with older Germans and he is deeply concerned about the rise of nationalism both inside and outside of Germany. Natasha, our Macedonian doesn't have a high opinion of Greece as their closest neighbours. In her opinion, the financial crisis in Greece was almost all self inflicted. |
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Jon you should get yourself over to Brussels, get a headset on and show our mottley bunch how it's done ;) |
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2. Germany burned Europe to the ground, twice, in the space of a generation. It’s all very well Germans of a certain age feeling post-war guilt but dealing with it is their business. If they feel the need to lock themselves in a padded cell for fear they might do it again, then they are at liberty to do so. They must not, however, judge us with the measure by which they judge themselves. We didn’t start the fire and we do not need to be locked up in federal hell alongside them. We are capable of making policy ourselves, without bringing the world to the brink of Armageddon or gassing six million of our own citizens in the name of racial purity. Any whinging about British attitudes to immigration should be set in that context before any German has the right to accuse us of behaving like it’s 1939, a year in which they were invading half of Central Europe and we were still hoping to peacefully stop them. 3. Your Macedonian friend it correct, Greece brought it on themselves; they got drunk on cheap credit. The EU, however, is guilty of leaving an alcoholic alone in a room with an unlocked liquor cabinet. Also, it’s easy to see why a country that would immediately be a net beneficiary of EU spending would be so keen to join, and why it would be so disappointed to see one of the biggest net contributors planning to leave. Come next March, the magic money tree will become somewhat less fruitful than certain continental treasuries have been used to. |
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It's been 73 years since the war ended - we really need to let it go.
Using the 2nd World War to pillory modern day Germans is like blaming modern day Brits for the Amritsar Massacres, the Boer concentration camps, the way we partitioned India, the Bengal Famine, and other less salubrious actions of the British Empire. |
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Germanys attitude in relation to WWII is interesting. They certainly don't hide their past. Go to Berlin to see examples of this. The Topography of Terror exhibition and holocaust memorials are amazing exhibits right in the centre of the city.
There is acceptance of what happened but also a clear admission of how it happened. It's the understanding of the how the rise of Hitler occurred and how this lead to the holocaust, etc happened is how we avoid these things happen again. This acceptance is ingrained in the culture of your common German but they have moved on from the sackcloth and ashes repentance and are now wanting this not to happen again. Should the architects of the German war of aggression of 1939-1945 be forgiven? No. Should we punish todays Germans for the sins of their fathers and grandfathers? Also no. Germany is a fascinating country. They have had two massive upheavals rewriting the way their country works in the end of WWII and the end of the cold war and reunification. Berlin is the most extreme case of this and would encourage anyone to visit that city |
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The average German is a top person - from a human point of view. But from a normal psychological standpoint, their pride in their economic achievement leads to natural pride that Germany has more control over the EU than any other country. That's human nature. So these nice people are quite content with German hegemony as it currently sits and develops. |
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I can't see a lot of difference from an ascendancy perspective between the UK and Germany now.
Chamberlain the appeaser; May the appeaser; Merkel the Fuehrer (sort of). |
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e.g. being the main economic power in Europe. |
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If anything, Germany doesn’t have enough influence in the European Parliament for its population. The EU wide apportionment is 1 MEP for every 716,000 citizens. Numbers here - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appo...ean_Parliament |
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Germany is economically (and politically) stronger than the UK today. As it was in 1939. The Chamberlain and May bits of my statement are obvious comparisons. When Juncker came to 10 Downing Street, after the meeting it is reported that he got straight on the phone to Merkel. Without Nazi connotations, Merkel, being Chancellor of Germany, is their Fuehrer which suited my May/Chamberlain analogy. Remember, my pitch is to attack German hegemony and frame that in the context of Brexit. |
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Chris was right the first time. 1939 is not a useful comparison here. Just because we're dealing with Germany and France as the main power-brokers is not enough to justify it.
I also think Chamberlain is poorly treated by history btw although that's a different topic. |
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______________FRANCE_______GERMANY Exports________$523 billion____$1.4 trillion Imports________$612 billion____$1.1 trillion Unemployment___9.1%________3.4% Credit Rating____AA___________AAA Why are you people not acknowledging German hegemony? |
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Because we’re not obsessed about it, and don’t actually believe it’s a real thing.
Having lived in West Berlin for 3 years, whilst serving, and having worked in many parts of Germany in the 80s, and still have friends from that time, I don’t recognise your world view. |
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What Hugh said. Yes, Germany has the biggest population and economy in the EU but someone has to be the biggest
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I don’t know how long ago you served in Berlin, but it is today we’re talking about and how Merkel calls the shots. You can’t see that? ---------- Post added at 09:02 ---------- Previous post was at 08:57 ---------- Quote:
Btw, is it not bad for the remainder that Germany’s 8% surplus (in violation of the EU 3% limit) should be at the cost of deficits in those other countries who are thus beholden to Germany? What is the matter with you people? Do you want the UK to be part of that? Can I have a direct answer to that specific question, please? |
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Direct answer - yes. More detailed answer, how will leaving fix the problem? With the uk leaving, the strength of Germany in the EU will be higher. I fail to see how leaving will make any improvement to this situation. Also, whether we are in or out, this is a Eurozone issue, not an EU one and we were never going to join the Euro.
What is driving the trade imbalance? There are two issues I can see - one driven by the government and one driven by the employment situation. Yes, the government could spend more on infrastructure and outsource some of this externally but that’s a political as well as economic decision. The second was the slow wage growth in Germany despite strong union representation on company boards. As unemployment is dropping in Germany, there appears to be an upturn in wage growth which will go some way to fix the problem. |
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Well that’s me told!
As I said before, in my opinion, there is no German hegemony. The world view you have that Germany wants to take over Europe does not match mine. If I am wrong and we are on the verge of the fourth reich, how would the UK leaving the EU strengthen our position considering; We trade internationally including with eurozone countries so anything Germany will do trade wise will affect us anyway We are not in the eurozone and never will be regardless of if we stayed or left If running an economy to that countries advantage is a reason not to do business with them, then we are going to run out of friends very quickly. |
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I've not said anything about not doing business with Germany. I just don't think the 52% who voted Leave want to be part of Europe that is politically and economically (and cynically so) dominated by Germany. That you can't see this is surprising.
At one point in this debate I was content to remain in the EU and keep sticking it to them. The tipping point was Merkel's move to ensure that a German takes over from Juncker. Remember, it'll be a continuation Juncker's policy that EU members surrender sovereignty o Brussels on many important decision areas And with a German driving that, German hegemony lies behind the drive. Do you still want that? |
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So when Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were Prime Minister, it was all an undercover plot for Scottish hegemony?
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You do love the word ‘hegemony’, don’t you... |
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Do you really want that? |
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You are right about progress so far about federation. But now that Germany is demanding to be at the EC helm, surely we can see what is going to happen. One of their goals will be to save the Euro, which could implode if Italy goes tits up with its debt. This can only be done through fiscal integration which is then the first concrete step to federation because of the powers needed to be transferred to Brussels. Oh - the Parliament. They want it as I've explained before because they would then trump national parliaments. They always cheer Verhofstad when he calls for federation. Have you not thought this through properly? |
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How would a nation state run the EC? The head is nominated by the Parliament and the other 27 by the council. Martin Selmayr is indeed German but he still needs to be voted in to position. The EPP seems to be the largest party but that certainly isn’t all German. Hey, there are times when you raise things I haven’t considered which is great. It gives me the opportunity to learn new things which is always a good thing. However, you have not convinced me at all that the EU is some master plan for Germany. |
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You go slightly too far in your interpretation of my words in saying that the "EU is some master plan for Germany". Yes, slightly. But, as I've said, it's in their blood (Deutschland Ueber Alles) and their people are very content with that aspect of Germany's ecconomic success; they don't want other EU countries upsetting that. |
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‘Hegemony’?
‘In their blood’ ‘Deutschland Uber Alles’? I don’t think it’s the Germans who are obsessed with them ‘leading’ Europe... |
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Some things live long...... |
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Pierre makes a valid point about our post-colonial heritage/burden. On the other hand, the UK is doing nothing, taking no steps, to control the EU bloc in any way shape or form. One of the differences between the UK and Germany. |
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Surely every nation in the EU advocates its own interests. No one wins all the time but the UK has been successful in terms of its EU-lite approach with no euro, no Shenzen and opt-outs in areas like the 35-hour working week. |
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On your second paragraph, I agree wholeheartedly, which is why I've said that I could live with staying in the EU provided we could continue sticking it to them. But this Merkel move to get a German into the Juncker job is just too much for me. A tipping point. The above said, I've carefully read Gove's statement in the past day or so. He said that the Chequers deal would do for now, but things might be different later. If this means that through Chequers we get some short to medium term stability while we sort ourselves out ready to take proper sovereign decisions about our future and lay the plans, then I could go along with that. We would be out on 29-Mar-19 and can plan to plough our own furrow with something in place to support matters as they stand. Could be that May has been craftier than she has been credited, keeping cards close to her chest. |
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For some people, ‘the bleedin’ obvious’ is usually "things I believe that support my world-view".
Since some people don’t agree with your views on German ‘hegemony’, that may explain why it isn’t ‘bleedin’ obvious’ to them... |
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1. Germany engineered the Euro's initial value for their own purposes; 2. The recent Greece business was entirely managed under German direction; 3. Germany maintains an illegal 8% surplus (3% is the limit) and are not in Court. 4. First call Juncker makes after meeting May in Downing Street is to Merkel. 5. Merkel is trying to organise a German as replacement for Juncker. 6. Germany has been the tough guy towards the UK in Brexit negotiations. Every other country is in deficit to Germany, who obviously want to keep it that way. Why should we part of that scheme? |
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So, what will happen in the next two months? Will Theresa May get a deal past Parliament (despite the maths) or will the Government fall to a General Election? Who will our Prime Minister be on 1/1/19? Will one of the initials be a J?
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That is also dependant on the rest of the EU accepting the deal. It matters not what Parliament vote if the EU does not agree to the deal. |
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If we fail to agree on the deal and/ or the EU reject the deal. We leave with no deal, and have to negotiate an FTA or something .....PDQ. It has to be done quick, we need to submit our offer to the EU and then they need to submit their counter offer, then we’ll know how far apart we are. |
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Some scenarios from the FT if Parliament says no:
1) Resubmit the same plan. 2) Stay in EEA until a new trade deal with the EU is agreed. 3) Call an election. 4) Call a referendum. https://www.ft.com/content/23dc17d8-...2-17176fbf93f5 |
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There will not be an election and there will not be a second referendum. On that basis, I should think Parliament will vote for the deal as most MPs do not want to fall back on WTO rules. For many, it will be Hobson's choice, which is why I am confident that the Parliament will vote for the Chequers deal. Whether the British public will be happy with that is a different question. ---------- Post added at 10:33 ---------- Previous post was at 10:31 ---------- Quote:
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A deal that both sides can work with needs to be possible before any parliamentary approval can be sought. |
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Vince cable is an old fool who should be stripped of his knighthood.
Brexit cannot and will not be stopped |
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Many hurtful things are said in the course of negotiations - look at the recent UKTV exchanges. Barnier's outbursts are designed for effect and to try to influence outcomes by unnerving the opposition. We will get there in the end. ---------- Post added at 19:14 ---------- Previous post was at 19:12 ---------- Quote:
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It may seem a bit of a Horlicks at the moment, but it won't when everything is signed, sealed, delivered and properly explained. |
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None of the three main parties wanted Brexit. The Tories find themselves in government and therefore have to try and deliver it. Labour have to challenge the Govt but then can’t be seen to be frustrating no the process and therefore just look stupid with no ideas, no sensible alternative. “ jobs first Brexit” what does that mean? Stay in “a” not “the” customs union, what does that mean? “Retain the benefits of the single market” ????? They say they will “will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option ” yet Thornberry stated Labour would vote against “any” deal.......thereby triggering a no deal. LibDems just flat outright don’t accept the result of the referendum. If Brexit doesn’t happen it will make the tuition fees issue look like a minor spat. UKIP would rise again and Farage would return like a vulture circling the cadavers of the main political parties. If we get a half in /half out Brexit, still subservient to the ECJ and the 4F’s, the Tories would suffer internally, there will be a leader change potentially a GE, UKIP would gain support. LibDem’s would lose any traction they had. Labour would just blindly object to anything like they always do. If we get a no deal Brexit, TM may walk leading to a Leadership change, I wouldn’t expect a GE immediately. UKIP would be totally finished, LibDems would have to run on a ticket of rejoining the EU, guaranteeing that they are distant 4th in any future election. Labour just complain, and try to say how they would have got a deal had they been in power forgetting that it was them that voted against any deal. |
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Some good analysis, Pierre, but would Farage bounce back and be credible? I'm dubious.
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However, services are not affected, and as that is the bulk of our business, we will benefit from making all those rules ourselves. If the rest doesn't work out, we can change those arrangements at our own leisure at a future date. As for Barnier, he is in negotiating mood, so you can take his public pronouncements with a pinch of salt. Remember that both sides in the negotiation actually do want a deal. All this smoke and mirrors is designed both to unsettle the British and get plaudits for him when he announces the deal at the 11th ho |
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Theresa May has reiterated her position only this week. Out of the EU. Out of the common market. Out of the customs union. No free movement of people. No jurisdiction over the UK of the ECJ. I think what is causing the upset is the idea of the Common Rulebook. According to the PM, this sets out those arrangements for trade which we already have with the EU and we are comfortable with. Services will be exempt and we are told that trade deals with the rest of the world will be unaffected by this. TM also clarified that if the EU changed the rules set out in the Common Rulebook in the future, we would be free to consider them and reject them if we felt it was bad for Britain. This, of course, could lead to other consequences, but these could be negotiated separately, which would be easier outside of the EU as we would have already settled the other issues by then. It was also made clear over the weekend that a future PM would be able to change the Chequers deal after Brexit and even scrap it altogether if that was considered right for Britain. All in all, therefore, I don't understand what all the fuss is about. Acceptance of the Chequers deal is not a half way house. We will be out of the EU and free to make our own decisions. The Chequers arrangements that are agreed will be our trade deal with the EU. Most people in this country I believe want a smooth exit from the EU with ongoing good relations with the EU, but without the free movement, etc, etc that we are subject to right now, and Chequers will deliver that. I think most of the antagonism towards Chequers is the result of misunderstandings generated by all the noises off. When people understand what it is we have agreed with Europe, assuming that happens, and also appreciate that the only alternative is WTO, I think the majority of the population will side with the Government. Parliament will get to vote for the agreed Chequers deal (if it is agreed with the EU) or to reject it, in which case Nigel Farage will get what he wants. There will not be another referendum and a General Election to decide the matter is not on the cards. |
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191 days 7 hrs 19 min and 30 seconds :D
Onwards and upwards ;) |
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Oneards and forward.
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Barnier rebuffs calls for flexibility on Irish border. So one wonders what he is trying to bluff? This is quite possibly the most vital issue in the Brexit negotiation. |
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So far the EU’s position has been a wheeze to allow Eire to force a wedge into the UK.
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I suspect not much will change with whatever transition/delay gets or doesn't get negotiated, and it will be Brexit day in name only. We're nowhere near ready for any of the major changes it entails. |
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The EU speaks with many tongues. All of them false.
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in Glasgow.It was very realistic and i used to throw it at people and through time it became hairy :D That joke shop also sold these fake dog shites that you would heat up in the oven for 20 min then you would take it out the packet and they were warm and really smelly and you could leave them anywhere you liked as a joke :D Now the rest of the tale of woe can't be told here but trust me these fake shits got put in some really random places :p: Goodness the things you do when young :D |
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I really don't know how we've got the impression that our politicians are any better than those in the EU. The last few years have proved the opposite if anything. Our wonderful elected representatives really will have no one else to blame post Brexit.
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Yes they will. Us. :D |
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They'll be a long list of those to point the finger at after the Brexit fall out. Those really responsible will of course take none of the blame. When the fairyland Brexit they dreamed of isn't delivered, it'll be May, Corbyn, the EU, immigrants, etc etc fault..... |
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All my responsibilities ended after casting my vote.
I don't recall the voting paper including the phrase "you may vote either Remain or Leave, but please be aware you will need to submit a written document outlining your proposals for a successful implementation of your choice" Government missed a great chance to pass the buck there didn't they :D:D |
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It is NOT their fault on how, why they voted and it will never be. The problem here is the doom mongering attitude you persistently and tediously, continue to have. When the millions of people who voted for Labour in 1997 and they came to power for 13 years, is it those voters fault that Labour bankrupted the country, took us to an illegal Iraq war, sold gold at rock bottom prices... ??? As much as I despised what Labour did to this country in the 13 years in power, I do not blame a single voter who decided to vote for them. I accepted their right to a democratic choice. This blame game really is pathetic and you consistently always play the blame game. NOONE knows what the UK will be like post Brexit, but there will always be the naysayers and doom mongers who thinks we should stay in a corrupted and failing EU. It is failing because other countries will be deciding to leave as well. The EU was the biggest con job sold to billions in Europe and I am absolutely ecstatic that the majority of people in the UK stood up to them and finally we will be free of the bullshit that exists in this pathetic and corrupted Union. Even as we speak, today in Brussels, there is now other EU members, pleading and begging the UK to hold a second referendum, I say piss off and mind your own business. As much as the PM annoys me at times - she has told them all straight within the last 24 hours, it's either a deal or no deal, there will be NO second referendum or "losers vote" as it is being branded about. Good. Democracy must be maintained, the 2016 EU Referendum was meant to be a once in a lifetime vote, yet two years later, the hardcore Remainers want another vote, thus, trying to wreck the fundamental principles of a true Democracy, by having frequent votes, to get the desired result. ---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 10:32 ---------- Quote:
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Just because there are safe seats where people would vote for a parrot if it wore a Blue or Red rosette is the fault of the electorate, not the system. |
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Last election 57% of Cornwall did not vote Tory, but ended up with 100% Tory MPs. It took fewer votes to elect one SNP MP than to elect a DUP MP. 68.4% of votes cast in 2017 had no impact on the outcome. That is why the system is broken. |
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So there will be no deal unless the Northern Ireland border issue is sorted so the EU have stated this afternoon.
When there was a referendum after the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, every single member of the electorate was sent the full text of the Agreement and they were asked to vote in favour of it or against it. There was a 80% turnout and 71% voted in favour. Similarly, the GFA required the Republic to go through a significant constitutional change. The full text of the change was provided to the citizens of Ireland and on a 56% turnout, 94% voted in favour. We are now looking to take away the GFA to which the vast majority of both sides of the border voted to keep open borders. Given this was true democracy where voters were given exactly what they were voting for, should the people of both countries be given another vote? |
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I ask the question, if there was a no deal, other than some very recent papers from the Government - of which there are still several to be produced - have the UK electorate really been provided with the detail as to what a no deal looks like so that they can make a real choice? |
Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
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