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Damien 14-09-2018 08:40

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
That is one angry chappy. So much rage. (Can't lie though, I have watched loads of him. Something funny about how upset he gets).

Maggy 14-09-2018 09:17

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678

Quote:

The Bank of England's governor has warned the cabinet that a chaotic no-deal Brexit could crash house prices and send another financial shock through the economy.

Mark Carney met senior ministers on Thursday to discuss the risks of a disorderly exit from the EU.

His worst-case scenario was that house prices could fall as much as 35% over three years, a source told the BBC.
I suspect he's going to face strong criticism from the hard brexiteers..

Damien 14-09-2018 09:22

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
He is just planning for the 'worst-case' scenario as the article says which is his job. The hard Brexiteers will be angry but like when we actually left the Bank of England seem to have been the only ones prepared for it. Cameron resigned, The Brexit team fought amongst themselves to be leader and the Government were unprepared.

jonbxx 14-09-2018 09:48

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Apologies for the late message but I did promise to give some perspectives from some work colleagues on Brexit. I was in meetings in the US with three colleagues from continental Europe and we had a good discussion over a few beers one night on Brexit. Two people were from EU countries and the third was from a country tat wants to join.

Can you guess which countries these people are from?

Person 1 - he said it was a shame the UK was leaving as his country always saw the UK as a kindered spirit within the EU. Generally we voted the same way and we were a useful ally against some larger more 'federal' nations

Person 2 - a bit more vocal! He saw Brexit as a triumph of nationalism over international cooperation and the UK was trying to 'turn back the clock' to pre-1939 while the rest of the world has moved on. I made the point that the UK hasn't been invaded for over a thousand years and s has never really felt the breakdown of diplomacy to a great extent which he liked. He got in to a big argument with a Trump supporter on the same issue!

Person 3 - from a country that wants to join. From the outside looking in, it was a club that non EU European countries really want to join. Accepting a small loss of sovereignty was a small price to pay for the prosperity of being an EU country. Big hint - she made the point that they changed the name of the country to ease accession to the EU.

It was a fun discussion. I tried to play devils advocate and use some of the arguments seen on here and elsewhere on leaving

1andrew1 14-09-2018 09:58

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963148)
Apologies for the late message but I did promise to give some perspectives from some work colleagues on Brexit. I was in meetings in the US with three colleagues from continental Europe and we had a good discussion over a few beers one night on Brexit. Two people were from EU countries and the third was from a country tat wants to join.

Can you guess which countries these people are from?

Person 1 - he said it was a shame the UK was leaving as his country always saw the UK as a kindered spirit within the EU. Generally we voted the same way and we were a useful ally against some larger more 'federal' nations

Person 2 - a bit more vocal! He saw Brexit as a triumph of nationalism over international cooperation and the UK was trying to 'turn back the clock' to pre-1939 while the rest of the world has moved on. I made the point that the UK hasn't been invaded for over a thousand years and s has never really felt the breakdown of diplomacy to a great extent which he liked. He got in to a big argument with a Trump supporter on the same issue!

Person 3 - from a country that wants to join. From the outside looking in, it was a club that non EU European countries really want to join. Accepting a small loss of sovereignty was a small price to pay for the prosperity of being an EU country. Big hint - she made the point that they changed the name of the country to ease accession to the EU.

It was a fun discussion. I tried to play devils advocate and use some of the arguments seen on here and elsewhere on leaving

1. Denmark
2. France
3. FYR Macedonia

denphone 14-09-2018 10:14

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35963144)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678



I suspect he's going to face strong criticism from the hard brexiteers..

Strange how they don't have a clear concise plan themselves when pressed on it.

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 10:30

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35963144)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678



I suspect he's going to face strong criticism from the hard brexiteers..

Carney should have kept his gob shut. His words can spook the market to cause what he's predicting. The Brexiteers would be right to complain as Carney's remarks are gratuitous.

And while I'm there, his chief fan, Hammond, should be carpeted for allowing this scaremongering to occur; although he won't be as he is scaremonger in chief.

I'm beginning to think Hammond is in the same league of **** as Juncker and Selmayr.

---------- Post added at 10:30 ---------- Previous post was at 10:24 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35963144)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678



I suspect he's going to face strong criticism from the hard brexiteers..

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35963151)
Strange how they don't have a clear concise plan themselves when pressed on it.

What's that got to do with Carney's words of doom?

And what 'clear concise plan' is possible now at this stage other than dropping out of the EU on the appointed date and then sort things out? Two years ago, it was possible to have a clear plan which May pretended to have when she conned us by saying "Brexit means Brexit".

We have to get out; Juncker's speech proves that. We are not compatible with a federated Europe and the Euro - topics that the Remainers on this thread avoid getting into as far as I've seen. Never mind German hegemony a subtle way of winning domination by "peaceful" means.

Damien 14-09-2018 10:50

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963152)
Carney should have kept his gob shut. His words can spook the market to cause what he's predicting. The Brexiteers would be right to complain as Carney's remarks are gratuitous.

This was a briefing to the cabinet. The question is who leaked it? Might be a BoE person, might a Remainer cabinet minister. Either way Carney is meant to inform them of the worst case scenarios he is prepared for. You would be lining up for his head if something bad happens and the BoE weren't prepared for it because it was too negative.

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 11:02

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35963156)
This was a briefing to the cabinet. The question is who leaked it? Might be a BoE person, might a Remainer cabinet minister. Either way Carney is meant to inform them of the worst case scenarios he is prepared for. You would be lining up for his head if something bad happens and the BoE weren't prepared for it because it was too negative.

I believe that Carney was being cynical. He knows that the Cabinet is a sieve and he is an unrepentant Remainer. He has no business being so partisan given the Referendum result.

I don't want his head; I want him to be more balanced. None of his predictions so far in relation to the effects of Brexit have materialised.

1andrew1 14-09-2018 11:05

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35963156)
This was a briefing to the cabinet. The question is who leaked it? Might be a BoE person, might a Remainer cabinet minister. Either way Carney is meant to inform them of the worst case scenarios he is prepared for. You would be lining up for his head if something bad happens and the BoE weren't prepared for it because it was too negative.

Might have been an opponent of Carney or a Brexiter too.

---------- Post added at 11:05 ---------- Previous post was at 11:03 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963158)
I believe that Carney was being cynical. He knows that the Cabinet is a sieve and he is an unrepentant Remainer. He has no business being so partisan given the Referendum result.

I don't want his head; I want him to be more balanced. None of his predictions so far in relation to the effects of Brexit have materialised.

He's not partisan, he's realistic. Businesses are having these debates too but I appreciate you may not be at the table for these.
What specific predictions do you disagree with, bearing in mind Brexit has not yet happened.

denphone 14-09-2018 11:10

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963158)
I believe that Carney was being cynical. He knows that the Cabinet is a sieve and he is an unrepentant Remainer. He has no business being so partisan given the Referendum result.

I don't want his head; I want him to be more balanced. None of his predictions so far in relation to the effects of Brexit have materialised.

So if you don't agree with his sentiments its obviously not balanced as his job as a independent Governor of the Bank of England is to voice his concerns on possible future economic scenarios.

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 11:35

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
https://www.ft.com/content/0832eb42-...4-6f049d06439c

Is a balanced article on Carney.

Maggy 14-09-2018 12:08

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963162)

Can't access anything on that link apart from how to subscribe to FT.

denphone 14-09-2018 12:10

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
+1

jonbxx 14-09-2018 12:34

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35963149)
1. Denmark
2. France
3. FYR Macedonia

Got the last one right :tu: and number 1 was nearly right.

The answers are;

1 - Sweden
2 - Germany
3 - Macedonia

Bo, my Swedish buddy apparently echos the general 'cautious europhilia' of Sweden. They like the EU but are wary of too much integration too fast. He admitted that it would be a cold day in hell before Sweden joined the Euro! There is some resentment in Sweden that some countries in the EU haven't been taking their fair share of refugees, hence the rise of the SD party in the election this weekend. Many Swedes would like a pro-rated acceptance of refugee numbers across the EU which of course would go down like a cup of cold sick in the UK.

Ralf, my German friend is in his early 50s and so is still of that fiercely anti-nationalistic post WWII mindset of many Germans of that generation. There is very much a 'never again' attitude with older Germans and he is deeply concerned about the rise of nationalism both inside and outside of Germany.

Natasha, our Macedonian doesn't have a high opinion of Greece as their closest neighbours. In her opinion, the financial crisis in Greece was almost all self inflicted.

daveeb 14-09-2018 12:44

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963171)
Got the last one right :tu: and number 1 was nearly right.

The answers are;

1 - Sweden
2 - Germany
3 - Macedonia

Bo, my Swedish buddy apparently echos the general 'cautious europhilia' of Sweden. They like the EU but are wary of too much integration too fast. He admitted that it would be a cold day in hell before Sweden joined the Euro! There is some resentment in Sweden that some countries in the EU haven't been taking their fair share of refugees, hence the rise of the SD party in the election this weekend. Many Swedes would like a pro-rated acceptance of refugee numbers across the EU which of course would go down like a cup of cold sick in the UK.

Ralf, my German friend is in his early 50s and so is still of that fiercely anti-nationalistic post WWII mindset of many Germans of that generation. There is very much a 'never again' attitude with older Germans and he is deeply concerned about the rise of nationalism both inside and outside of Germany.

Natasha, our Macedonian doesn't have a high opinion of Greece as their closest neighbours. In her opinion, the financial crisis in Greece was almost all self inflicted.


Jon you should get yourself over to Brussels, get a headset on and show our mottley bunch how it's done ;)

Chris 14-09-2018 16:41

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963171)
Got the last one right :tu: and number 1 was nearly right.

The answers are;

1 - Sweden
2 - Germany
3 - Macedonia

Bo, my Swedish buddy apparently echos the general 'cautious europhilia' of Sweden. They like the EU but are wary of too much integration too fast. He admitted that it would be a cold day in hell before Sweden joined the Euro! There is some resentment in Sweden that some countries in the EU haven't been taking their fair share of refugees, hence the rise of the SD party in the election this weekend. Many Swedes would like a pro-rated acceptance of refugee numbers across the EU which of course would go down like a cup of cold sick in the UK.

Ralf, my German friend is in his early 50s and so is still of that fiercely anti-nationalistic post WWII mindset of many Germans of that generation. There is very much a 'never again' attitude with older Germans and he is deeply concerned about the rise of nationalism both inside and outside of Germany.

Natasha, our Macedonian doesn't have a high opinion of Greece as their closest neighbours. In her opinion, the financial crisis in Greece was almost all self inflicted.

1. Sweden, in common with many other smaller European countries, bears its fair share of the blame for the leave vote in the U.K. It’s all very well your friend lamenting that they have lost an ally against the Franco-German axis at the heart of the EU, but the reality is that too many of them were prepared to hide under their desks and leave the UK to take them on alone. They wanted the UK to do their dirty work for them and were content to leave us looking isolated in order to avoid upsetting Frau Merkel. This strategy has come back to bite them on the bum.

2. Germany burned Europe to the ground, twice, in the space of a generation. It’s all very well Germans of a certain age feeling post-war guilt but dealing with it is their business. If they feel the need to lock themselves in a padded cell for fear they might do it again, then they are at liberty to do so. They must not, however, judge us with the measure by which they judge themselves. We didn’t start the fire and we do not need to be locked up in federal hell alongside them. We are capable of making policy ourselves, without bringing the world to the brink of Armageddon or gassing six million of our own citizens in the name of racial purity. Any whinging about British attitudes to immigration should be set in that context before any German has the right to accuse us of behaving like it’s 1939, a year in which they were invading half of Central Europe and we were still hoping to peacefully stop them.

3. Your Macedonian friend it correct, Greece brought it on themselves; they got drunk on cheap credit. The EU, however, is guilty of leaving an alcoholic alone in a room with an unlocked liquor cabinet.

Also, it’s easy to see why a country that would immediately be a net beneficiary of EU spending would be so keen to join, and why it would be so disappointed to see one of the biggest net contributors planning to leave. Come next March, the magic money tree will become somewhat less fruitful than certain continental treasuries have been used to.

Hugh 14-09-2018 16:52

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
It's been 73 years since the war ended - we really need to let it go.

Using the 2nd World War to pillory modern day Germans is like blaming modern day Brits for the Amritsar Massacres, the Boer concentration camps, the way we partitioned India, the Bengal Famine, and other less salubrious actions of the British Empire.

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 17:24

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35963165)
Can't access anything on that link apart from how to subscribe to FT.

Try this route via Google.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rc...3fHwtneihorokB

jonbxx 14-09-2018 17:27

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Germanys attitude in relation to WWII is interesting. They certainly don't hide their past. Go to Berlin to see examples of this. The Topography of Terror exhibition and holocaust memorials are amazing exhibits right in the centre of the city.

There is acceptance of what happened but also a clear admission of how it happened. It's the understanding of the how the rise of Hitler occurred and how this lead to the holocaust, etc happened is how we avoid these things happen again. This acceptance is ingrained in the culture of your common German but they have moved on from the sackcloth and ashes repentance and are now wanting this not to happen again.

Should the architects of the German war of aggression of 1939-1945 be forgiven? No. Should we punish todays Germans for the sins of their fathers and grandfathers? Also no.

Germany is a fascinating country. They have had two massive upheavals rewriting the way their country works in the end of WWII and the end of the cold war and reunification. Berlin is the most extreme case of this and would encourage anyone to visit that city

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 17:40

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963189)
It's been 73 years since the war ended - we really need to let it go.

Using the 2nd World War to pillory modern day Germans is like blaming modern day Brits for the Amritsar Massacres, the Boer concentration camps, the way we partitioned India, the Bengal Famine, and other less salubrious actions of the British Empire.

I understand Hugh's point of view from the perspective of Nazism. But German hegemony is in their blood and the Greater German Empire is part of their government's plan. They dominate EU economics, seem to have the final say on everything, have an 8% or higher GDP surplus (at the expense of the rest of Europe). We are escaping from this and are about to re-embark on our own venture.

---------- Post added at 17:40 ---------- Previous post was at 17:36 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963192)
Germanys attitude in relation to WWII is interesting. They certainly don't hide their past. Go to Berlin to see examples of this. The Topography of Terror exhibition and holocaust memorials are amazing exhibits right in the centre of the city.

There is acceptance of what happened but also a clear admission of how it happened. It's the understanding of the how the rise of Hitler occurred and how this lead to the holocaust, etc happened is how we avoid these things happen again. This acceptance is ingrained in the culture of your common German but they have moved on from the sackcloth and ashes repentance and are now wanting this not to happen again.

Should the architects of the German war of aggression of 1939-1945 be forgiven? No. Should we punish todays Germans for the sins of their fathers and grandfathers? Also no.

Germany is a fascinating country. They have had two massive upheavals rewriting the way their country works in the end of WWII and the end of the cold war and reunification. Berlin is the most extreme case of this and would encourage anyone to visit that city

I know Germany very well, having lived there for a year and visiting regularly. I'm a fluent German speaker and so get to know stuff about what they mean when they say something.

The average German is a top person - from a human point of view. But from a normal psychological standpoint, their pride in their economic achievement leads to natural pride that Germany has more control over the EU than any other country. That's human nature. So these nice people are quite content with German hegemony as it currently sits and develops.

Chris 14-09-2018 18:30

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963189)
It's been 73 years since the war ended - we really need to let it go.

Using the 2nd World War to pillory modern day Germans is like blaming modern day Brits for the Amritsar Massacres, the Boer concentration camps, the way we partitioned India, the Bengal Famine, and other less salubrious actions of the British Empire.

Well yes they should. In this instance it’s jonbxx’s German friend who chose to characterise the UK’s current position by reference to “pre-1939”. Whether this is a widespread belief in Germany or just his own, it was his choice to liken today to the state of Europe in the 1930s. That being the case he really needs to drop any idea that there is any kind of equivalence between Germany then and the U.K. now.

jonbxx 14-09-2018 19:19

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35963196)
Well yes they should. In this instance it’s jonbxx’s German friend who chose to characterise the UK’s current position by reference to “pre-1939”. Whether this is a widespread belief in Germany or just his own, it was his choice to liken today to the state of Europe in the 1930s. That being the case he really needs to drop any idea that there is any kind of equivalence between Germany then and the U.K. now.

Apologies, I wasn’t clear. His point was that the UK was at its peak before 1939. Post war Britain was nowhere near what it was before the war. Within a few years of the end of the war we were nearly broke, the empire dissolved and the last gasp was the Suez crisis. The pre 1939 was the UK pre 1939, not Germany

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 19:22

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
I can't see a lot of difference from an ascendancy perspective between the UK and Germany now.

Chamberlain the appeaser; May the appeaser; Merkel the Fuehrer (sort of).

1andrew1 14-09-2018 19:25

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963194)
But German hegemony is in their blood and the Greater German Empire is part of their government's plan.

What is your source for that information? Sure, Germany has the largest economy in Europe but that doesn't mean the country's government is going to Empire-build or Germans are born to dominate other countries.

Hugh 14-09-2018 19:28

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963199)
I can't see a lot of difference from an ascendancy perspective between the UK and Germany now.

Chamberlain the appeaser; May the appeaser; Merkel the Fuehrer (sort of).

Don’t you mean ‘doing what we would like to do, only being more efficient and doing it better’?

e.g. being the main economic power in Europe.

jonbxx 14-09-2018 19:29

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963194)
I understand Hugh's point of view from the perspective of Nazism. But German hegemony is in their blood and the Greater German Empire is part of their government's plan. They dominate EU economics, seem to have the final say on everything, have an 8% or higher GDP surplus (at the expense of the rest of Europe). We are escaping from this and are about to re-embark on our own venture.

---------- Post added at 17:40 ---------- Previous post was at 17:36 ----------



I know Germany very well, having lived there for a year and visiting regularly. I'm a fluent German speaker and so get to know stuff about what they mean when they say something.

The average German is a top person - from a human point of view. But from a normal psychological standpoint, their pride in their economic achievement leads to natural pride that Germany has more control over the EU than any other country. That's human nature. So these nice people are quite content with German hegemony as it currently sits and develops.

Due to The apportionment system, Germany will naturally have the most MEPs as they have the biggest population at 96 for the 2019 election. Funnily enough, they have the lowest level of representation at 860,000 citizens per MEP. Malta has 77,000 per MEP but only 6 MEPs.

If anything, Germany doesn’t have enough influence in the European Parliament for its population. The EU wide apportionment is 1 MEP for every 716,000 citizens.

Numbers here - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appo...ean_Parliament

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 19:49

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35963200)
What is your source for that information? Sure, Germany has the largest economy in Europe but that doesn't mean the country's government is going to Empire-build or Germans are born to dominate other countries.

Oh please. What do you think has been happening for the past 70 years? You have twisted my meaning. German hegemony is founded on their economic strength and thus the extent to which they can influence what happens to other EU members (see Greece for details, and now the UK as regards Brexit. The United States of Germany is on the way to being under the name European Union.

---------- Post added at 19:41 ---------- Previous post was at 19:33 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963201)
Don’t you mean ‘doing what we would like to do, only being more efficient and doing it better’?

e.g. being the main economic power in Europe.

Whatever. If you combine the German psyche with their being the main economic power in Europe, then when stuff happens (like Greece), Germany calls the shots. Now extend that out to a sustained period of German economic surplus against sustained deficits in the other EU countries, who's top dog and calling the shots? And Germany is already doing it.

---------- Post added at 19:49 ---------- Previous post was at 19:41 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963202)
Due to The apportionment system, Germany will naturally have the most MEPs as they have the biggest population at 96 for the 2019 election. Funnily enough, they have the lowest level of representation at 860,000 citizens per MEP. Malta has 77,000 per MEP but only 6 MEPs.

If anything, Germany doesn’t have enough influence in the European Parliament for its population. The EU wide apportionment is 1 MEP for every 716,000 citizens.

Numbers here - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appo...ean_Parliament

The statistical facts about Germany's MEPs do not affect Germany calling the shots. For a start the German governing/coalition party sits in the largest MEP bloc with 217 members. And remember the EU Parliament is as hegemonist as Germany in that they want to trump national parliaments. With Germany controlling the dosh, you can see what you'll get.

Damien 14-09-2018 20:11

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963199)
I can't see a lot of difference from an ascendancy perspective between the UK and Germany now.

Chamberlain the appeaser; May the appeaser; Merkel the Fuehrer (sort of).

This is an utterly ridiculous statement.

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 20:25

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35963210)
This is an utterly ridiculous statement.

Depends on the interpretation.

Germany is economically (and politically) stronger than the UK today. As it was in 1939. The Chamberlain and May bits of my statement are obvious comparisons. When Juncker came to 10 Downing Street, after the meeting it is reported that he got straight on the phone to Merkel. Without Nazi connotations, Merkel, being Chancellor of Germany, is their Fuehrer which suited my May/Chamberlain analogy.

Remember, my pitch is to attack German hegemony and frame that in the context of Brexit.

Damien 14-09-2018 20:31

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Chris was right the first time. 1939 is not a useful comparison here. Just because we're dealing with Germany and France as the main power-brokers is not enough to justify it.

I also think Chamberlain is poorly treated by history btw although that's a different topic.

Sephiroth 14-09-2018 22:21

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35963212)
Chris was right the first time. 1939 is not a useful comparison here. Just because we're dealing with Germany and France as the main power-brokers is not enough to justify it.

I also think Chamberlain is poorly treated by history btw although that's a different topic.

France is Germany's running dog. France was squashed by Germany in 1940 (albeit by military means) and it is being squashed by Germany right now. Some facts (which I hope formats reasonably):


______________FRANCE_______GERMANY
Exports________$523 billion____$1.4 trillion
Imports________$612 billion____$1.1 trillion
Unemployment___9.1%________3.4%
Credit Rating____AA___________AAA


Why are you people not acknowledging German hegemony?

Hugh 14-09-2018 23:34

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Because we’re not obsessed about it, and don’t actually believe it’s a real thing.

Having lived in West Berlin for 3 years, whilst serving, and having worked in many parts of Germany in the 80s, and still have friends from that time, I don’t recognise your world view.

jonbxx 15-09-2018 07:59

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
What Hugh said. Yes, Germany has the biggest population and economy in the EU but someone has to be the biggest

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 09:02

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963229)
Because we’re not obsessed about it, and don’t actually believe it’s a real thing.

Having lived in West Berlin for 3 years, whilst serving, and having worked in many parts of Germany in the 80s, and still have friends from that time, I don’t recognise your world view.

Your friends are not the German government who are pursuing the economic hegemonist policy. The people can stick their chests out and passively go along with it - just like in the 1930s and just like anywhere that the folk in similar circumstances would.

I don’t know how long ago you served in Berlin, but it is today we’re talking about and how Merkel calls the shots. You can’t see that?


---------- Post added at 09:02 ---------- Previous post was at 08:57 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963240)
What Hugh said. Yes, Germany has the biggest population and economy in the EU but someone has to be the biggest

again, dodging the point. Biggest need not equate to hegemonist. But in the case of Germany, who engineered the Euro’s value to get them where they are now, their domination of the EU, certainly in the economic sense, is in the realms of the bleedin’ Obvious.

Btw, is it not bad for the remainder that Germany’s 8% surplus (in violation of the EU 3% limit) should be at the cost of deficits in those other countries who are thus beholden to Germany?

What is the matter with you people? Do you want the UK to be part of that? Can I have a direct answer to that specific question, please?

jonbxx 15-09-2018 12:08

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Direct answer - yes. More detailed answer, how will leaving fix the problem? With the uk leaving, the strength of Germany in the EU will be higher. I fail to see how leaving will make any improvement to this situation. Also, whether we are in or out, this is a Eurozone issue, not an EU one and we were never going to join the Euro.

What is driving the trade imbalance? There are two issues I can see - one driven by the government and one driven by the employment situation. Yes, the government could spend more on infrastructure and outsource some of this externally but that’s a political as well as economic decision. The second was the slow wage growth in Germany despite strong union representation on company boards. As unemployment is dropping in Germany, there appears to be an upturn in wage growth which will go some way to fix the problem.

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 13:24

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963254)
Direct answer - yes.
[SEPH]: At last. You're the first to answer YES to my question: "Do you want the UK to be part of that [German hegemony]?" Note that everybody: to my surprise, jonbxx wants the UK to be under the influence of German hegemony.

More detailed answer, how will leaving fix the problem? With the uk leaving, the strength of Germany in the EU will be higher. I fail to see how leaving will make any improvement to this situation. Also, whether we are in or out, this is a Eurozone issue, not an EU one and we were never going to join the Euro.
[SEPH]: Leaving doesn't fix the "problem" of German hegemony. It just leaves the other 27 to stew in that juice. Why on earth should we be helping to fix a problem that cannot be fixed? You say it's a Eurozone problem; of course it's not. The German domination is total, across all 27 countries - they don't just export to the Eurozone members. And what is the "improvement to the situation" that you mentioned? Unpicking German hegemony? By the UK staying in the EU? Oh please.

What is driving the trade imbalance? There are two issues I can see - one driven by the government and one driven by the employment situation. Yes, the government could spend more on infrastructure and outsource some of this externally but that’s a political as well as economic decision. The second was the slow wage growth in Germany despite strong union representation on company boards. As unemployment is dropping in Germany, there appears to be an upturn in wage growth which will go some way to fix the problem.
[SEPH]: How will an upturn in wage growth fix the problem of German hegemony? That is naïve. Deutschland Ueber Alles is in their blood, one way or another. I'm very disappointed that you want to be a member of the ultimate United States of Germany.

Btw, you did read that Merkel is trying to get a German to be the successor to Juncker; yes? It's a pity that I can't rest my case there!


jonbxx 15-09-2018 14:03

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Well that’s me told!

As I said before, in my opinion, there is no German hegemony. The world view you have that Germany wants to take over Europe does not match mine. If I am wrong and we are on the verge of the fourth reich, how would the UK leaving the EU strengthen our position considering;

We trade internationally including with eurozone countries so anything Germany will do trade wise will affect us anyway
We are not in the eurozone and never will be regardless of if we stayed or left

If running an economy to that countries advantage is a reason not to do business with them, then we are going to run out of friends very quickly.

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 14:16

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
I've not said anything about not doing business with Germany. I just don't think the 52% who voted Leave want to be part of Europe that is politically and economically (and cynically so) dominated by Germany. That you can't see this is surprising.

At one point in this debate I was content to remain in the EU and keep sticking it to them. The tipping point was Merkel's move to ensure that a German takes over from Juncker. Remember, it'll be a continuation Juncker's policy that EU members surrender sovereignty o Brussels on many important decision areas And with a German driving that, German hegemony lies behind the drive.

Do you still want that?

Hugh 15-09-2018 14:19

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
So when Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were Prime Minister, it was all an undercover plot for Scottish hegemony?

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 14:24

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963261)
So when Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were Prime Minister, it was all an undercover plot for Scottish hegemony?

What's that got to do with the evidenced case of German hegemony?

Hugh 15-09-2018 16:57

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963262)
What's that got to do with the evidenced case of German hegemony?

’Your opinion’ ≠ ‘evidenced’...

You do love the word ‘hegemony’, don’t you...

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 17:02

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963272)
’Your opinion’ ≠ ‘evidenced’...

You do love the word ‘hegemony’, don’t you...

I'm trying to drum into the Remainers that we should have little or no truck, and at worst resistant truck, with the way the EU is heading into federation controlled by Germany. Hegemony is the correct word and your sentence above contributes nothing other than to try and make me look foolish.

Angua 15-09-2018 18:44

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963273)
I'm trying to drum into the Remainers that we should have little or no truck, and at worst resistant truck, with the way the EU is heading into federation controlled by Germany. Hegemony is the correct word and your sentence above contributes nothing other than to try and make me look foolish.

There seems to be an odd fear of success with this view.

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 19:05

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35963284)
There seems to be an odd fear of success with this view.

I don't understand your meaning.

jonbxx 15-09-2018 19:46

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963273)
I'm trying to drum into the Remainers that we should have little or no truck, and at worst resistant truck, with the way the EU is heading into federation controlled by Germany. Hegemony is the correct word and your sentence above contributes nothing other than to try and make me look foolish.

So how can Germany be stopped if this is the case? Do you believe us leaving will stop the boche in their tracks or make the jerries job easier?

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 19:59

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963287)
So how can Germany be stopped if this is the case? Do you believe us leaving will stop the boche in their tracks or make the jerries job easier?

I thought that I'd made that very clear. We can't stop German hegemony. So we should leave them to it so that we are not in any way embroiled. Wee we to remain in the EU, and if it federates to any extent, I suspect there would be two tiers[ - inner (federated) and outer (Single Market & Customs Union). What would be the point of being in that group if Germany is leading the federated group? On the road to getting there, Selmayr or a similar German would be at the EC helm driving this.

Do you really want that?

jonbxx 15-09-2018 20:26

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963290)
I thought that I'd made that very clear. We can't stop German hegemony. So we should leave them to it so that we are not in any way embroiled. Wee we to remain in the EU, and if it federates to any extent, I suspect there would be two tiers[ - inner (federated) and outer (Single Market & Customs Union). What would be the point of being in that group if Germany is leading the federated group? On the road to getting there, Selmayr or a similar German would be at the EC helm driving this.

Do you really want that?

So give up and run away is the answer? Even, hypothetically, with Selmayr at the helm of the the commission, what about the Parliament and Council? There have been federal noises in the past but these have regularly been knocked back by the Council.

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 20:36

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963292)
So give up and run away is the answer? Even, hypothetically, with Selmayr at the helm of the the commission, what about the Parliament and Council? There have been federal noises in the past but these have regularly been knocked back by the Council.

Why do you taint the argument that way? It's called walking away from a battle with stacked adverse odds. In reality, called a democratic vote by Referendum to leave the EU.

You are right about progress so far about federation. But now that Germany is demanding to be at the EC helm, surely we can see what is going to happen. One of their goals will be to save the Euro, which could implode if Italy goes tits up with its debt. This can only be done through fiscal integration which is then the first concrete step to federation because of the powers needed to be transferred to Brussels.

Oh - the Parliament. They want it as I've explained before because they would then trump national parliaments. They always cheer Verhofstad when he calls for federation.

Have you not thought this through properly?

jonbxx 15-09-2018 21:07

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963293)
Why do you taint the argument that way? It's called walking away from a battle with stacked adverse odds. In reality, called a democratic vote by Referendum to leave the EU.

You are right about progress so far about federation. But now that Germany is demanding to be at the EC helm, surely we can see what is going to happen. One of their goals will be to save the Euro, which could implode if Italy goes tits up with its debt. This can only be done through fiscal integration which is then the first concrete step to federation because of the powers needed to be transferred to Brussels.

Oh - the Parliament. They want it as I've explained before because they would then trump national parliaments. They always cheer Verhofstad when he calls for federation.

Have you not thought this through properly?

So walking away rather than running is the answer?

How would a nation state run the EC? The head is nominated by the Parliament and the other 27 by the council. Martin Selmayr is indeed German but he still needs to be voted in to position. The EPP seems to be the largest party but that certainly isn’t all German.

Hey, there are times when you raise things I haven’t considered which is great. It gives me the opportunity to learn new things which is always a good thing. However, you have not convinced me at all that the EU is some master plan for Germany.

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 21:18

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35963294)
So walking away rather than running is the answer?

How would a nation state run the EC? The head is nominated by the Parliament and the other 27 by the council. Martin Selmayr is indeed German but he still needs to be voted in to position. The EPP seems to be the largest party but that certainly isn’t all German.

Hey, there are times when you raise things I haven’t considered which is great. It gives me the opportunity to learn new things which is always a good thing. However, you have not convinced me at all that the EU is some master plan for Germany.

It needn't be Selmayr. The newspapers put an additional name (an MEP) into the frame. The fact that Merkel is trying to get a German as EC President is all the evidence one would need of continuing German hegemony.

You go slightly too far in your interpretation of my words in saying that the "EU is some master plan for Germany". Yes, slightly. But, as I've said, it's in their blood (Deutschland Ueber Alles) and their people are very content with that aspect of Germany's ecconomic success; they don't want other EU countries upsetting that.

Hugh 15-09-2018 22:19

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
‘Hegemony’?

‘In their blood’

‘Deutschland Uber Alles’?

I don’t think it’s the Germans who are obsessed with them ‘leading’ Europe...

Sephiroth 15-09-2018 22:44

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963297)
‘Hegemony’?

‘In their blood’

‘Deutschland Uber Alles’?

I don’t think it’s the Germans who are obsessed with them ‘leading’ Europe...

Someone has to point it out to you Remainers. Again, your contribution in accusing me opf obsession carries no value to the debate.

Pierre 15-09-2018 23:51

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963189)
It's been 73 years since the war ended - we really need to let it go.

Using the 2nd World War to pillory modern day Germans is like blaming modern day Brits for the Amritsar Massacres, the Boer concentration camps, the way we partitioned India, the Bengal Famine, and other less salubrious actions of the British Empire.

But yet we still, apparently, have to apologise for slavery and colonialism.............

Some things live long......

Sephiroth 16-09-2018 08:30

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963297)
‘Hegemony’?

‘In their blood’

‘Deutschland Uber Alles’?

I don’t think it’s the Germans who are obsessed with them ‘leading’ Europe...

Looks like you are sleeping on the job.

Pierre makes a valid point about our post-colonial heritage/burden. On the other hand, the UK is doing nothing, taking no steps, to control the EU bloc in any way shape or form. One of the differences between the UK and Germany.

1andrew1 16-09-2018 19:54

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963306)
Looks like you are sleeping on the job.

Pierre makes a valid point about our post-colonial heritage/burden. On the other hand, the UK is doing nothing, taking no steps, to control the EU bloc in any way shape or form. One of the differences between the UK and Germany.

I'm not sure that you'll win round fellow debaters by suggesting they're sleeping on the job. ;)
Surely every nation in the EU advocates its own interests. No one wins all the time but the UK has been successful in terms of its EU-lite approach with no euro, no Shenzen and opt-outs in areas like the 35-hour working week.

Sephiroth 16-09-2018 20:07

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35963333)
I'm not sure that you'll win round fellow debaters by suggesting they're sleeping on the job. ;)
Surely every nation in the EU advocates its own interests. No one wins all the time but the UK has been successful in terms of its EU-lite approach with no euro, no Shenzen and opt-outs in areas like the 35-hour working week.

I don't expect to convince some contributors on German hegemony - although I don't understand how they can be in denial of the bleedin' obvious.

On your second paragraph, I agree wholeheartedly, which is why I've said that I could live with staying in the EU provided we could continue sticking it to them. But this Merkel move to get a German into the Juncker job is just too much for me. A tipping point.

The above said, I've carefully read Gove's statement in the past day or so. He said that the Chequers deal would do for now, but things might be different later. If this means that through Chequers we get some short to medium term stability while we sort ourselves out ready to take proper sovereign decisions about our future and lay the plans, then I could go along with that. We would be out on 29-Mar-19 and can plan to plough our own furrow with something in place to support matters as they stand.

Could be that May has been craftier than she has been credited, keeping cards close to her chest.



Hugh 16-09-2018 20:50

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
For some people, ‘the bleedin’ obvious’ is usually "things I believe that support my world-view".

Since some people don’t agree with your views on German ‘hegemony’, that may explain why it isn’t ‘bleedin’ obvious’ to them...

Sephiroth 16-09-2018 21:09

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35963335)
For some people, ‘the bleedin’ obvious’ is usually "things I believe that support my world-view".

Since some people don’t agree with your views on German ‘hegemony’, that may explain why it isn’t ‘bleedin’ obvious’ to them...

And that is despite the carefully compiled set of facts I've patiently presented for some time in this thread. I'll summarise those again as best as I can remember without trawling through the whole thing:

1. Germany engineered the Euro's initial value for their own purposes;
2. The recent Greece business was entirely managed under German direction;
3. Germany maintains an illegal 8% surplus (3% is the limit) and are not in Court.
4. First call Juncker makes after meeting May in Downing Street is to Merkel.
5. Merkel is trying to organise a German as replacement for Juncker.
6. Germany has been the tough guy towards the UK in Brexit negotiations.

Every other country is in deficit to Germany, who obviously want to keep it that way.

Why should we part of that scheme?



1andrew1 17-09-2018 20:34

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
So, what will happen in the next two months? Will Theresa May get a deal past Parliament (despite the maths) or will the Government fall to a General Election? Who will our Prime Minister be on 1/1/19? Will one of the initials be a J?

pip08456 17-09-2018 20:49

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35963423)
So, what will happen in the next two months? Will Theresa May get a deal past Parliament (despite the maths) or will the Government fall to a General Election? Who will our Prime Minister be on 1/1/19? Will one of the initials be a J?

I'm not into clairvoyancy but if Parliament reject the deal then we leave the EU with no deal. No ifs or buts, we leave.

That is also dependant on the rest of the EU accepting the deal.

It matters not what Parliament vote if the EU does not agree to the deal.

Sephiroth 17-09-2018 20:52

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35963423)
So, what will happen in the next two months? Will Theresa May get a deal past Parliament (despite the maths) or will the Government fall to a General Election? Who will our Prime Minister be on 1/1/19? Will one of the initials be a J?

That's one for Old Boy!

Pierre 17-09-2018 20:57

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35963426)
I'm not into clairvoyancy but if Parliament reject the deal then we leave the EU with no deal. No ifs or buts, we leave.

That is also dependant on the rest of the EU accepting the deal.

It matters not what Parliament vote if the EU does not agree to the deal.

Agreed, there is no “go back and get a better deal”.

If we fail to agree on the deal and/ or the EU reject the deal.

We leave with no deal, and have to negotiate an FTA or something .....PDQ.

It has to be done quick, we need to submit our offer to the EU and then they need to submit their counter offer, then we’ll know how far apart we are.

1andrew1 17-09-2018 21:15

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Some scenarios from the FT if Parliament says no:
1) Resubmit the same plan.
2) Stay in EEA until a new trade deal with the EU is agreed.
3) Call an election.
4) Call a referendum.
https://www.ft.com/content/23dc17d8-...2-17176fbf93f5

pip08456 17-09-2018 21:53

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35963432)
Some scenarios from the FT if Parliament says no:
1) Resubmit the same plan.To who? Parliament or the EU?
2) Stay in EEA until a new trade deal with the EU is agreed. Is that even on the table?
3) Call an election. How will that change anything?
4) Call a referendum. Not enough time to change anything and has already been ruled out.
https://www.ft.com/content/23dc17d8-...2-17176fbf93f5

Perhaps your beloved FT should read Article 50.

OLD BOY 18-09-2018 10:33

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35963432)
Some scenarios from the FT if Parliament says no:
1) Resubmit the same plan.
2) Stay in EEA until a new trade deal with the EU is agreed.
3) Call an election.
4) Call a referendum.
https://www.ft.com/content/23dc17d8-...2-17176fbf93f5

Theresa May has made it abundantly clear that if Parliament rejects the deal, then there is no deal. It really is as simple as that.

There will not be an election and there will not be a second referendum.

On that basis, I should think Parliament will vote for the deal as most MPs do not want to fall back on WTO rules. For many, it will be Hobson's choice, which is why I am confident that the Parliament will vote for the Chequers deal.

Whether the British public will be happy with that is a different question.

---------- Post added at 10:33 ---------- Previous post was at 10:31 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963427)
That's one for Old Boy!

Glad to oblige, Seph, and TM will still be PM on 1/1/19!

Angua 18-09-2018 17:26

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35963453)
Theresa May has made it abundantly clear that if Parliament rejects the deal, then there is no deal. It really is as simple as that.

There will not be an election and there will not be a second referendum.

On that basis, I should think Parliament will vote for the deal as most MPs do not want to fall back on WTO rules. For many, it will be Hobson's choice, which is why I am confident that the Parliament will vote for the Chequers deal.

Whether the British public will be happy with that is a different question.

---------- Post added at 10:33 ---------- Previous post was at 10:31 ----------



Glad to oblige, Seph, and TM will still be PM on 1/1/19!

Parliament can vote for whatever it chooses, but Barnier has already said the Chequers deal is not acceptable.

A deal that both sides can work with needs to be possible before any parliamentary approval can be sought.

Hom3r 18-09-2018 18:18

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Vince cable is an old fool who should be stripped of his knighthood.

Brexit cannot and will not be stopped

Mr K 18-09-2018 18:23

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 35963490)
Vince cable is an old fool who should be stripped of his knighthood.

Brexit cannot and will not be stopped

I like Vincent, top bloke ! There' s a chasm at the centre of British politics waiting for someone to grab. Brexit is going to destroy the Tories, almost, but not quite worth it ;)

pip08456 18-09-2018 18:26

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35963491)
I like Vincent, top bloke ! There' s a chasm at the centre of British politics waiting for someone to grab. Brexit is going to destroy the Tories, almost, but not quite worth it ;)

Vince Cable is not the bloke to grab it.

Sephiroth 18-09-2018 18:32

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35963491)
I like Vincent, top bloke ! There' s a chasm at the centre of British politics waiting for someone to grab. Brexit is going to destroy the Tories, almost, but not quite worth it ;)

Sadly, Cable's mantra that "Brexit must be stopped" kicks democracy in the teeth. Brexit must be delivered, not stopped. An even greater shame that the guvmin's approach to this has so far been an utter Horlicks.

OLD BOY 18-09-2018 19:16

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
1
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35963484)
Parliament can vote for whatever it chooses, but Barnier has already said the Chequers deal is not acceptable.

A deal that both sides can work with needs to be possible before any parliamentary approval can be sought.

So why is Barnier currently working on Britain's ideas for the Northern Irish border?

Many hurtful things are said in the course of negotiations - look at the recent UKTV exchanges.

Barnier's outbursts are designed for effect and to try to influence outcomes by unnerving the opposition.

We will get there in the end.

---------- Post added at 19:14 ---------- Previous post was at 19:12 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 35963490)
Vince cable is an old fool who should be stripped of his knighthood.

Brexit cannot and will not be stopped

Vince is all right, but he's certainly out of step with his fellows of the older generation. Most have become wise with age prior to senility.

---------- Post added at 19:16 ---------- Previous post was at 19:14 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35963495)
Sadly, Cable's mantra that "Brexit must be stopped" kicks democracy in the teeth. Brexit must be delivered, not stopped. An even greater shame that the guvmin's approach to this has so far been an utter Horlicks.

Don't worry, Seph. Brexit will be delivered, and within six months we will all know that this is the case, despite all the rhetoric.

It may seem a bit of a Horlicks at the moment, but it won't when everything is signed, sealed, delivered and properly explained.

Pierre 18-09-2018 20:27

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35963491)
Brexit is going to destroy the Tories

Brexit has the potential to destroy all the main parties. There is no “Brexit party”, nobody comes out of this looking good.

None of the three main parties wanted Brexit. The Tories find themselves in government and therefore have to try and deliver it.

Labour have to challenge the Govt but then can’t be seen to be frustrating no the process and therefore just look stupid with no ideas, no sensible alternative. “ jobs first Brexit” what does that mean? Stay in “a” not “the” customs union, what does that mean? “Retain the benefits of the single market” ????? They say they will “will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option ” yet Thornberry stated Labour would vote against “any” deal.......thereby triggering a no deal.

LibDems just flat outright don’t accept the result of the referendum.

If Brexit doesn’t happen it will make the tuition fees issue look like a minor spat. UKIP would rise again and Farage would return like a vulture circling the cadavers of the main political parties.

If we get a half in /half out Brexit, still subservient to the ECJ and the 4F’s, the Tories would suffer internally, there will be a leader change potentially a GE, UKIP would gain support. LibDem’s would lose any traction they had. Labour would just blindly object to anything like they always do.

If we get a no deal Brexit, TM may walk leading to a Leadership change, I wouldn’t expect a GE immediately. UKIP would be totally finished, LibDems would have to run on a ticket of rejoining the EU, guaranteeing that they are distant 4th in any future election. Labour just complain, and try to say how they would have got a deal had they been in power forgetting that it was them that voted against any deal.

1andrew1 19-09-2018 00:02

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Some good analysis, Pierre, but would Farage bounce back and be credible? I'm dubious.

OLD BOY 19-09-2018 07:44

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35963521)
Brexit has the potential to destroy all the main parties. There is no “Brexit party”, nobody comes out of this looking good.

None of the three main parties wanted Brexit. The Tories find themselves in government and therefore have to try and deliver it.

Labour have to challenge the Govt but then can’t be seen to be frustrating no the process and therefore just look stupid with no ideas, no sensible alternative. “ jobs first Brexit” what does that mean? Stay in “a” not “the” customs union, what does that mean? “Retain the benefits of the single market” ????? They say they will “will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option ” yet Thornberry stated Labour would vote against “any” deal.......thereby triggering a no deal.

LibDems just flat outright don’t accept the result of the referendum.

If Brexit doesn’t happen it will make the tuition fees issue look like a minor spat. UKIP would rise again and Farage would return like a vulture circling the cadavers of the main political parties.

If we get a half in /half out Brexit, still subservient to the ECJ and the 4F’s, the Tories would suffer internally, there will be a leader change potentially a GE, UKIP would gain support. LibDem’s would lose any traction they had. Labour would just blindly object to anything like they always do.

If we get a no deal Brexit, TM may walk leading to a Leadership change, I wouldn’t expect a GE immediately. UKIP would be totally finished, LibDems would have to run on a ticket of rejoining the EU, guaranteeing that they are distant 4th in any future election. Labour just complain, and try to say how they would have got a deal had they been in power forgetting that it was them that voted against any deal.

We will not get a half in, half out Brexit, though, will we? We will be pulling out of the EU, single market and customs union and although some might not like the common rulebook idea, that will only apply to a relatively small amount of our trade, and we are relatively happy with those rules.

However, services are not affected, and as that is the bulk of our business, we will benefit from making all those rules ourselves. If the rest doesn't work out, we can change those arrangements at our own leisure at a future date.

As for Barnier, he is in negotiating mood, so you can take his public pronouncements with a pinch of salt.

Remember that both sides in the negotiation actually do want a deal. All this smoke and mirrors is designed both to unsettle the British and get plaudits for him when he announces the deal at the 11th ho

Pierre 19-09-2018 10:32

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35963552)
We will not get a half in, half out Brexit, though, will we? We will be pulling out of the EU, single market and customs union and although some might not like the common rulebook idea, that will only apply to a relatively small amount of our trade, and we are relatively happy with those rules.

However, services are not affected, and as that is the bulk of our business, we will benefit from making all those rules ourselves. If the rest doesn't work out, we can change those arrangements at our own leisure at a future date.

As for Barnier, he is in negotiating mood, so you can take his public pronouncements with a pinch of salt.

Remember that both sides in the negotiation actually do want a deal. All this smoke and mirrors is designed both to unsettle the British and get plaudits for him when he announces the deal at the 11th ho

Chequers is effectively half in/ half out.

OLD BOY 19-09-2018 13:06

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35963562)
Chequers is effectively half in/ half out.

I don't agree, although that is certainly the mantra we are hearing from more hard line Brexiteers.

Theresa May has reiterated her position only this week. Out of the EU. Out of the common market. Out of the customs union. No free movement of people. No jurisdiction over the UK of the ECJ.

I think what is causing the upset is the idea of the Common Rulebook. According to the PM, this sets out those arrangements for trade which we already have with the EU and we are comfortable with. Services will be exempt and we are told that trade deals with the rest of the world will be unaffected by this. TM also clarified that if the EU changed the rules set out in the Common Rulebook in the future, we would be free to consider them and reject them if we felt it was bad for Britain. This, of course, could lead to other consequences, but these could be negotiated separately, which would be easier outside of the EU as we would have already settled the other issues by then.

It was also made clear over the weekend that a future PM would be able to change the Chequers deal after Brexit and even scrap it altogether if that was considered right for Britain.

All in all, therefore, I don't understand what all the fuss is about. Acceptance of the Chequers deal is not a half way house. We will be out of the EU and free to make our own decisions. The Chequers arrangements that are agreed will be our trade deal with the EU.

Most people in this country I believe want a smooth exit from the EU with ongoing good relations with the EU, but without the free movement, etc, etc that we are subject to right now, and Chequers will deliver that. I think most of the antagonism towards Chequers is the result of misunderstandings generated by all the noises off. When people understand what it is we have agreed with Europe, assuming that happens, and also appreciate that the only alternative is WTO, I think the majority of the population will side with the Government.

Parliament will get to vote for the agreed Chequers deal (if it is agreed with the EU) or to reject it, in which case Nigel Farage will get what he wants. There will not be another referendum and a General Election to decide the matter is not on the cards.

djfunkdup 19-09-2018 16:39

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
191 days 7 hrs 19 min and 30 seconds :D


Onwards and upwards ;)

Sephiroth 19-09-2018 17:12

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Oneards and forward.

Angua 19-09-2018 17:42

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35963511)
1

So why is Barnier currently working on Britain's ideas for the Northern Irish border?

Many hurtful things are said in the course of negotiations - look at the recent UKTV exchanges.

Barnier's outbursts are designed for effect and to try to influence outcomes by unnerving the opposition.

We will get there in the end. <snipped>


Barnier rebuffs calls for flexibility on Irish border.
So one wonders what he is trying to bluff? This is quite possibly the most vital issue in the Brexit negotiation.

Sephiroth 19-09-2018 17:59

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
So far the EU’s position has been a wheeze to allow Eire to force a wedge into the UK.

OLD BOY 19-09-2018 18:30

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35963604)

Barnier rebuffs calls for flexibility on Irish border.
So one wonders what he is trying to bluff? This is quite possibly the most vital issue in the Brexit negotiation.

Barnier speaks with forked tongue! He's blowing hot and cold at the moment and he seems to be contradicting himself now.

Mr K 19-09-2018 18:38

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by djfunkdup (Post 35963596)
191 days 7 hrs 19 min and 30 seconds :D


Onwards and upwards ;)

Bit like a Doomsday clock.... ;)

I suspect not much will change with whatever transition/delay gets or doesn't get negotiated, and it will be Brexit day in name only. We're nowhere near ready for any of the major changes it entails.

denphone 19-09-2018 19:10

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35963617)
Barnier speaks with forked tongue! He's blowing hot and cold at the moment and he seems to be contradicting himself now.

No different to our politicians then...

heero_yuy 19-09-2018 19:18

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
The EU speaks with many tongues. All of them false.

djfunkdup 19-09-2018 19:50

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35963624)
The EU speaks with many tongues. All of them false.

Yes i remember i had a rubber one i got out a joke shop called 'Tam Shepards'
in Glasgow.It was very realistic and i used to throw it at people and through time it became hairy :D

That joke shop also sold these fake dog shites that you would heat up in the oven for 20 min then you would take it out the packet and they were warm and really smelly and you could leave them anywhere you liked as a joke :D Now the rest of the tale of woe can't be told here but trust me these fake shits got put in some really random places :p: Goodness the things you do when young :D

denphone 19-09-2018 20:23

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35963624)
The EU speaks with many tongues. All of them false.

l don't disagree heero but anybody who places faith in our duplicitous politicians is going to be deeply disappointed and let down IMO as well.

Mr K 19-09-2018 20:27

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
I really don't know how we've got the impression that our politicians are any better than those in the EU. The last few years have proved the opposite if anything. Our wonderful elected representatives really will have no one else to blame post Brexit.

Pierre 19-09-2018 21:44

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35963645)
I really don't know how we've got the impression that our politicians are any better than those in the EU. The last few years have proved the opposite if anything. Our wonderful elected representatives really will have no one else to blame post Brexit.

Not any better, But we can remove our poor performing politicians and we can decide who replaces them.

OLD BOY 20-09-2018 07:31

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35963645)
I really don't know how we've got the impression that our politicians are any better than those in the EU. The last few years have proved the opposite if anything. Our wonderful elected representatives really will have no one else to blame post Brexit.



Yes they will. Us. :D

Mr K 20-09-2018 07:55

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35963667)
[/B]
Yes they will. Us. :D

Yes probably; but if you voted for Brexit you can't avoid some of the responsibility.

They'll be a long list of those to point the finger at after the Brexit fall out. Those really responsible will of course take none of the blame. When the fairyland Brexit they dreamed of isn't delivered, it'll be May, Corbyn, the EU, immigrants, etc etc fault.....

Carth 20-09-2018 08:55

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
All my responsibilities ended after casting my vote.

I don't recall the voting paper including the phrase "you may vote either Remain or Leave, but please be aware you will need to submit a written document outlining your proposals for a successful implementation of your choice"

Government missed a great chance to pass the buck there didn't they :D:D

Angua 20-09-2018 09:41

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35963654)
Not any better, But we can remove our poor performing politicians and we can decide who replaces them.

Most of the UK cannot. With the undemocratic FPTP system there are too many safe seats, where the only way you get a change of MP is when they resign, are deselected or switch sides.

Mick 20-09-2018 10:39

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35963669)
Yes probably; but if you voted for Brexit you can't avoid some of the responsibility.

My first post in a while, too busy doing a house move.

It is NOT their fault on how, why they voted and it will never be.

The problem here is the doom mongering attitude you persistently and tediously, continue to have.

When the millions of people who voted for Labour in 1997 and they came to power for 13 years, is it those voters fault that Labour bankrupted the country, took us to an illegal Iraq war, sold gold at rock bottom prices... ???

As much as I despised what Labour did to this country in the 13 years in power, I do not blame a single voter who decided to vote for them. I accepted their right to a democratic choice.

This blame game really is pathetic and you consistently always play the blame game.

NOONE knows what the UK will be like post Brexit, but there will always be the naysayers and doom mongers who thinks we should stay in a corrupted and failing EU.

It is failing because other countries will be deciding to leave as well. The EU was the biggest con job sold to billions in Europe and I am absolutely ecstatic that the majority of people in the UK stood up to them and finally we will be free of the bullshit that exists in this pathetic and corrupted Union.

Even as we speak, today in Brussels, there is now other EU members, pleading and begging the UK to hold a second referendum, I say piss off and mind your own business. As much as the PM annoys me at times - she has told them all straight within the last 24 hours, it's either a deal or no deal, there will be NO second referendum or "losers vote" as it is being branded about. Good.

Democracy must be maintained, the 2016 EU Referendum was meant to be a once in a lifetime vote, yet two years later, the hardcore Remainers want another vote, thus, trying to wreck the fundamental principles of a true Democracy, by having frequent votes, to get the desired result.

---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 10:32 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35963676)
All my responsibilities ended after casting my vote.

I don't recall the voting paper including the phrase "you may vote either Remain or Leave, but please be aware you will need to submit a written document outlining your proposals for a successful implementation of your choice"

:clap: Best post ever in this thread and totally spot on. Anyone who says otherwise is talking utter bollocks!!!

Pierre 20-09-2018 11:19

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35963681)
Most of the UK cannot. With the undemocratic FPTP system there are too many safe seats, where the only way you get a change of MP is when they resign, are deselected or switch sides.

All of the UK can.

Just because there are safe seats where people would vote for a parrot if it wore a Blue or Red rosette is the fault of the electorate, not the system.

Angua 20-09-2018 12:55

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35963700)
All of the UK can.

Just because there are safe seats where people would vote for a parrot if it wore a Blue or Red rosette is the fault of the electorate, not the system.

:dozey: The system creates the safe seats. The fact the majority do not even think about how they vote, just the same old choice election after election, is it any wonder people are turned off politics. NI Vote using a form of PR, so they at least have a genuine vote.

Last election 57% of Cornwall did not vote Tory, but ended up with 100% Tory MPs.
It took fewer votes to elect one SNP MP than to elect a DUP MP.

68.4% of votes cast in 2017 had no impact on the outcome.

That is why the system is broken.

Bircho 20-09-2018 14:37

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
So there will be no deal unless the Northern Ireland border issue is sorted so the EU have stated this afternoon.

When there was a referendum after the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, every single member of the electorate was sent the full text of the Agreement and they were asked to vote in favour of it or against it. There was a 80% turnout and 71% voted in favour.

Similarly, the GFA required the Republic to go through a significant constitutional change. The full text of the change was provided to the citizens of Ireland and on a 56% turnout, 94% voted in favour.

We are now looking to take away the GFA to which the vast majority of both sides of the border voted to keep open borders.

Given this was true democracy where voters were given exactly what they were voting for, should the people of both countries be given another vote?

Angua 20-09-2018 14:43

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35963723)
So there will be no deal unless the Northern Ireland border issue is sorted so the EU have stated this afternoon.

When there was a referendum after the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, every single member of the electorate was sent the full text of the Agreement and they were asked to vote in favour of it or against it. There was a 80% turnout and 71% voted in favour.

Similarly, the GFA required the Republic to go through a significant constitutional change. The full text of the change was provided to the citizens of Ireland and on a 56% turnout, 71% voted in favour.

We are now looking to take away the GFA to which the vast majority of both sides of the border voted to keep open borders.

Given this was true democracy where voters were given exactly what they were voting for, should the people of both countries be given another vote?

Exactly. I really do not think the majority of England when voting leave had a thought in their heads for the impact on Irish border and the GFA.

Bircho 20-09-2018 14:53

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35963724)
Exactly. I really do not think the majority of England when voting leave had a thought in their heads for the impact on Irish border and the GFA.

I edited my original post. There was a typo for the Republic vote - it was 94% in favour not 71% (that was for the vote in favour in the North).

---------- Post added at 14:53 ---------- Previous post was at 14:44 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35963724)
Exactly. I really do not think the majority of England when voting leave had a thought in their heads for the impact on Irish border and the GFA.

Probably worth adding that when there was the Scottish Independence Vote, a white paper was produced showing the implications to Scotland for both a pro and against independence. It ran to 560 pages - the electorate had the opportunity to have a detailed look at what they were voted for to allow them to make a balanced decision.

I ask the question, if there was a no deal, other than some very recent papers from the Government - of which there are still several to be produced - have the UK electorate really been provided with the detail as to what a no deal looks like so that they can make a real choice?

denphone 20-09-2018 17:39

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Chequers goes pop...

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/0...g-catastrophe/


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